Sanctions push Rouhani to boost state involvement in Iran’s economy
 The impact of the re-imposed US sanctions has forced the Rouhani administration to shift its market-oriented approach to the economy to focus on active involvement by the state.

 Israeli defense minister resigns over Hamas cease-fire 
Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman resigned from his post today and said his Yisrael Beitenu party was leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling coalition in protest over Tuesday's cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. Liberman argued that the cease-fire “cannot be interpreted in any way other than a surrender to terror,” adding that it “will severely harm our security in the long term.” The Israeli military declared a “return to normalcy” in southern Israel on Tuesday after Egypt and the United Nations mediated the cease-fire.
The latest spat of cross-border violence was the largest since the siege of the Gaza Strip began, with 460 rockets and mortar shells bombarding southern Israel, prompting the Israeli military to retaliate by striking 160 targets in the strip. Israeli residents of border communities are blocking Gaza’s Kerem Shalom commercial crossing and burning tires to protest the security situation.
Read More  ​

Russia sends its own signals on Libya by hosting Hifter
 Russia's military embraces Khalifa Hifter ahead of intra-Libyan talks in Palermo that kick off today, but does it signal a shift in Moscow's attitude toward the Libyan crisis?

 Turkey storms out of Libya talks after exclusion from meeting  
Turkey exited talks on the Libya conflict on Tuesday after it was excluded from sideline meetings. Although Libyan strongman Khalifa Hifter is not formally attending the talks in Italy, he is conducting meetings with foreign powers on the sidelines — to which Ankara was not invited. "Any meeting that excludes Turkey would prove to be counterproductive for the solution of this problem,” said Vice President Fuat Oktay, who attended the conference. "Libya cannot be stabilized as long as some countries continue to crush the process in line with their own interests,” Oktay added.   Read More  ​

1. Iran signaled its preparedness to respond to any Israeli strike against its nuclear facilities. Iran’s armed forces conducted a major air defense military exercise after the U.S. reimposed sanctions on November 5 that included both the Artesh and IRGC. Iran threatened to resume uranium enrichment on May 8 following the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal. Israel perceives Iran’s nuclear program as an immediate security threat and may take preemptive action if Iran resumes nuclear activities.
   
   
2. Emirati-backed Yemeni forces are surrounding al Hudaydah city to increase military pressure on the al Houthi movement before a U.S.-imposed deadline for peace talksin Sweden by the end of November. Both U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense James Mattis called for talks in recent weeks. Emirati-backed forces are unlikely to attempt to seize the port or city, which al Houthi forces have reinforced, before the talks.
   
   
3. An upcoming international conference on Libya, hosted by Italy on November 12-13, will not advance political reconciliation efforts. Italy and the UN have scrambled to secure the attendance of key powerbrokers and establish objectives for the conference, which joins several competing and de-synchronized initiatives. Domestic political deadlock and infighting between foreign powers will continue after the conference, preserving the instability that allows Salafi-jihadi groups to operate in Libya.
   
   
4. Fundamentalist Islamist protesters crippled Pakistan’s largest cities for three days to compel the Pakistani government to block a Christian recently acquitted of blasphemy charges from leaving the country. The protesters, led by the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) party, also called for the overthrow of the military and government. Protests will likely resume and may turn violent because Pakistan’s judiciary is unlikely to reverse its decision.
   
   
5.  Somali National Army (SNA) and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces resumed offensive operations in Lower Jubba region for the first time since al Shabaab checked their advances in summer 2018, but progress will be slow. SNA-AMISOM forces cleared areas outside al Shabaab-controlled Jamame town, including a village where al Shabaab attacked a joint U.S. and SNA-AMISOM outpost in June 2018. SNA-AMISOM forces are unlikely to seize Jamame in the near term.

Want more context? We recommend: 

• "Al Shabaab Area of Operations: October 2018"

• "A Strategy for Success in Libya"

• "In Depth: The Iran Nuclear Deal and Sanctions Relief"

• "The Assault on al Hudaydah: Surfacing America’s Partnership Problems"

Saudi Arabia ignores Trump administration on Yemen
US officials have called for confidence-building measures leading up to peace talks for Yemen, but the Saudis don't seem to be listening.
 
Mossad chief, Israel’s secret diplomat to the Mideast
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dedicates much effort to building ties with Sunni states and has sent Mossad chief Yossi Cohen to various locales on secret missions.

Israel’s Next Northern War: Operational and Legal Challenges
By Michael Hostage & Geoffrey Corn, RealClearDefense: “Hezbollah has threatened Israel’s northern border for decades. Today, however, the nature of this threat has become dire, and the risks of escalation real, as Iran continues supplying Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon with game-changing weapons to devastate the Israeli homeland.” 

The Burning Shores: Inside the Battle for the New Libya
By Stefan DePaul, Strategy Bridge: “Drawing from his background as an Arabic speaker, Oxford PhD, and Air Force veteran stationed in Libya who has provided testimony on the crisis to Congress—and as the current Senior Fellow for the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace—Wehrey has both the access and the academic ability to fully explain the history of the conflict.”
​

Ep. 28: What if America pulls out of Afghanistan? with Seth Jones, Bill Roggio and more.
// Defense One Staff   Welcome to our podcast about the news, strategy, tech, and business trends defining the future of national security.

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/10/us-and-partner-nations-seek-to-disrupt-iran-taliban-nexus.php

One year post-Ritz, MBS looks to ride out Khashoggi affair
BY ALISON TAHMIZIAN MEUSE
With the ambitions of the US and its regional allies pinned on his success, the Saudi crown prince is on track to negotiate past the murder of a critic

Turn Saudi Arabia into trusted partner in Middle East conflict
Danielle Pletka | The Hill 
It has been a month since Saudi writer and dissident Jamal Khashoggi was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. That case may have faded from the front page, but debates about American policy toward Saudi Arabia remain heated. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/khashoggis-killing-should-be-a-nuclear-red-flag-1540753005

AL JAZEERA 

FDD

FDD

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2018/10/29/profiles-of-iranian-repression/

Tunisia reshuffles Cabinet amid economic crisis 
Tunisia’s Prime Minister Youssef Chahed announced a Cabinet reshuffle on Monday in a bid to solve the country’s political and economic crisis. Chahed named 10 new ministers but did not change several key posts, including the ministries of Finance, Interior, Defense and Foreign Affairs. The move comes amid mounting pressure against Chahed’s government amid the economic crisis plaguing the country. President Beji Caid Essebsi has rejected the reshuffle, further deepening the rift between the former allies.  Read More  ​

Tunisia’s president agrees to swear in new ministers 
Tunisia’s President Beji Caid Essebsi on Thursday agreed to swear in new ministers as part of a Cabinet reshuffle, reversing course from his previous refusal to do so. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed announced a Cabinet reshuffle and named 10 new ministers on Monday amid a political and economic crisis. But Essebsi initially rejected the reshuffle, further deepening the rift between the former political allies. “I have no problem with the prime minister, but I dislike the handling of his reshuffle,” Essebsi told reporters on Thursday. The president’s son Hafedh Caid Essebsi is the head of Chahed’s Nidaa Tounes party and has blamed the prime minister for Tunisia’s economic woes.  Read More  ​

Hardliners coerced Rouhani to make political concessions. 
​Rouhani proposed four nominees to fill cabinet vacancies on October 20 following months of hardline pressure on Rouhani to address the failing economy and reshuffle his economic team. Hardliners have co-opted economic difficulties and public disaffection to drive five senior officials from the administration since July 2018. Parliament approved Mohammad Eslami as Roads and Urban Development Minister on October 26. Eslami maintains close ties to Iran’s defense industries and the Foundation of the Oppressed (Bonyad-e Mostazafan), an IRGC-affiliated business conglomerate and holding company. The foundation is one of the regime’s most powerful tools to exert economic influence and dominate the Iranian economy. Eslami has held senior positions in the organization and its affiliated entities for years, serving as the foundation's civil division executive deputy and as chairman of the boards of directors of two subsidiary construction companies. Eslami’s accession to the ministry may presage a rightward shift in the cabinet’s political center of gravity. 

Eslami will enable hardliners to expand their economic control domestically and abroad. The Roads and Urban Development Ministry is central to both Iran’s own infrastructure development and Iranian reconstruction efforts in Syria. The ministry has discussed possible Iranian participation in Syrian transportation and construction projects on numerous occasions with Syrian officials in recent months. These engagements have included ongoing negotiations over Iranian companies constructing 30,000 residential units in Syria and connecting Iranian rail lines to Syria through Iraq. The Foundation of the Oppressed would benefit through participation in these lucrative projects and thus expand hardliners’ economic influence regionally, which Eslami’s promotion makes likely.

Rouhani’s survival strategy includes offering increased economic influence to hardliners in exchange for a political ceasefire. 
Eslami is the antithesis of the economic policies and approach Rouhani has promoted during his presidency. Rouhani seeks to reduce the IRGC’s economic domination domestically and favors a diverse private sector. Eslami is contrastingly tied to the IRGC’s monopoly over various economic sectors. Yet Rouhani seems determined to make such a concession: he had previously offered IRGC financier and hardline industrialist Parviz Fattah the position of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare Minister on August 14 after Parliament impeached the incumbent. Fattah reportedly refused that proposal, presumably forcing Rouhani to find another IRGC-friendly individual to bring into his cabinet.

Hardliners will nonetheless leverage mounting pressures to instigate additional changes to Rouhani’s administration. 
Eslami’s appointment marks a political win for regime conservatives, and they will seek to replicate this victory. Hardliners recognize the success of their pressure campaign to undermine and discredit Rouhani thus far. They will therefore continue to condemn the reformist government. The reimposition of U.S. sanctions, the perceived failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and public discontent present hardliners an opportunity to extract additional concessions. Hardliners may push for the interpellation of additional senior reformist officials, possibly including First Vice President Eshagh Jahangiri or Rouhani himself, as the second round of U.S. sanctions return.

Suicide bombing injures dozens in Tunis 
At least 15 people, including 10 police officers, were wounded Monday when a woman blew herself up along a popular avenue in Tunisia's capital. The Interior Ministry said “a 30-year-old woman blew herself up in a police vehicle" on Habib Bourguiba Avenue in Tunis. No group has claimed responsibility for the blast. The attack ends a period of relative calm since 12 people were killed in an Islamic State bombing against a bus of presidential guards in Tunis in 2015. Read More  ​

Hoover Scholar: US Break With Saudi Arabia Would Deliver Middle East To Iran 
via Hoover Daily Report
In the wake of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, US leadership should think beyond immediate events and consider the long-term, positive policy implications of remaining allied with Saudi Arabia, a Stanford scholar says. 

FDD:  IRANIAN REPRESSION

Why Chinese public diplomacy is failing in Iran
 While political and economic engagement between Iran and China continues to increase, China’s image remains poor as it is hostage to factional disputes within Iran.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/409820-washingtons-silent-war-against-hezbollah-in-latin-america

Kidnapping of Iranians puts Iran-Pakistan ties to the test
 The Oct. 16 kidnapping of 14 Iranian security personnel by a Pakistan-based terrorist group is putting the spotlight on the viability of the nascent security cooperation between Iran and Pakistan.

Pakistan says mediating between Iran, Saudi Arabia in Yemen 
Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan said in a televised speech on Wednesday that he is mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia to end the war in Yemen. Pakistani Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry said the idea for Pakistan to mediate was first floated by Khan in a trip to Saudi Arabia after his election, and that "since then, Pakistan has been carrying out a Track II process.”  Read More  ​

U.S. Middle East Policy After Khashoggi
Details about the abduction and killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi continue to emerge. How will this incident impact U.S. policy in the Middle East? According to RAND's James Dobbins, the United States needs to "move back toward a distinctly American policy...one which can be distinguished from that of its local partners." Read more »

The US needs to put its values back at the center of its foreign policy
Danielle Pletka | The Atlantic 
Why do murders like those of Jamal Khashoggi and Farzad Barzoft happen? Simple. Because antidemocratic regimes believe they can get away with it. And because the US and its allies have failed to embrace a national-security strategy founded on values.

Our Saudi problem didn’t begin with Jamal Khashoggi’s murder 
Jonah Goldberg | National Review 

Saudi Arabia is Hurting American Interests
 // Richard Fontaine
​After Yemen, Qatar, kidnappings and Khashoggi, it's time to reset the U.S. relationship with the kingdom.

Time to Rethink the Price of Partnering With Dictators
 // Danielle Pletka
Dissidents need to know the U.S. stands with them, also. 

Foreign Policy As Moral Preening
by Bruce Thornton via Front Page Magazine
The murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi regime insider and columnist, in Istanbul continues to dominate the news cycle as the president and Congress consider their response. Despite the dog-bites-man nature of the story–– autocrats and tyrants across the globe regularly eliminate political enemies without such intense outrage from the West–– our media and politicians have conducted an orgy of moral preening, thunderous denunciations, and various proposed punishments of Saudi heir to the throne Mohammed bin Salman.

The Jamal Khashoggi I Knew by Barnett Rubin​

After Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia’s economic future is uncertain

DAILY BEAST:  WHY PRINCE BIN SALMAN WANTED KHASHOGGI DEAD

DAILY BEAST:  THE MASSIVE, BRUTAL COVER UP

PRINCE BIN SALMAN SHAKES THE HAND OF KHASHOGGI'S SON

Mattis Treads Carefully on Khashoggi Crisis 
// Katie Bo Williams  
The defense secretary condemned the killing of the Washington Post columnist but did not accuse Saudi Arabia, in keynote speech at security conference on the Persian Gulf. 
​
In a Post-Khashoggi World, Impunity Will Reign
 // Uri Friedman
The ugly geopolitics in the wake of the Saudi journalist's death point to a new era of impunity.