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ISRAEL HANGS ON TO FIGHT WITHOUT ALLIES

6/2/2023

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  • What Mao Taught Woke by Forrest Marion
  • What House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s Debt Ceiling Agreement Means for Defense
  • ​Defense Industry Dodges a Bullet in Debt Compromise
    By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “The defense industry isn’t like other industries. It only has one customer that matters—the government—and that customer’s behavior is often shaped by political rather than economic considerations.'
  • ​Can China Escape the Malacca Dilemma?
    By Ho Ting Hung, The National Interest: “Beijing is quite conscious that the Strait of Malacca can act as an effective chokepoint in China’s economic network, and is trying to find a solution to this thorny geopolitical problem."
Read Tracker
The Sahel’s Mercenary Economy
​Prove It Before You Use It: Nuclear Retaliation Under Uncertainty
​Pakistan may have postponed an anti-Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operation to focus on suppressing protests in early May. The removal of counterterrorism pressure on the TTP may permit the group to conduct attacks against sensitive targets in Islamabad, where the government is holding meetings to discuss the protest crisis. READ MORE >>
China’s push for trade in yuan has downsides for Gulf states
​CENTCOM commander visits Israel, observes multifront war exercise ​​
Egypt’s mounting debt raises doubts amid stalled reforms and inflows
​Israel raises interest rates to highest level since 2006
Iran tests ballistic missile with 1250-mile range, capable of hitting Israel
How Erdogan’s reelection will shift Turkey's foreign policy goals
Turkey Elections: Currency fears grow ahead of presidential runoff
Russia’s Tatneft makes new oil discovery in Libya
Egypt’s economy braces for new hit from Sudan conflict
​Sudan war complicates Russia's port plans, strains Wagner ties in Libya
Israel-Middle East trade soars, spurred by Abraham Accords and energy
Petrochemicals take center stage in Gulf’s new oil playbook
Will Telecom Egypt stake sale help country achieve IMF reforms?
​Israel's Netanyahu willing to pay 'heavy price' for normalization with Saudi Arabia
Erdogan vs. Kilicdaroglu: What to expect in Turkey's first ever election runoff
​Egypt’s tourism sector continues to lure private investors despite economic difficulties
here Palestine 1936: The Great Revolt and the Roots of the Middle East Conflict
with Oren Kessler
Itamar Marcus on Rejectionism in Palestinian Children's Education
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
May 22, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64481/itamar-marcus-on-rejectionism-in-palestinian
Drought threatens Morocco's bread basket economy: World Bank
Telecom Egypt sale foreshadows Cairo's uncertain privatization path
​With Saudi Aramco's $50 billion deal, Turkey seeks less dependency on West
 ​
  • "Saudi normalization should not come at the expense of Israel’s top priority: Preventing a bad Iran deal," Jacob Nagel, Israel Hayom
NAGEL AT FDD
IRAN IS PUSHING ISRAEL TOWARD A MULTI-THEATER CONFLAGRATION
​FDD, ISRAEL NEW SECURITY ENVIRONMENT 
  • AEI’s Nicholas Carl: Pivot to offense: How Iran is adapting for modern conflict and warfare​
  • Feud between Russian warlords exposes cracks in Kremlin’s war machine

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MIDDLE EAST REGION RAGES AGAIN

5/10/2023

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Why China's yuan is unlikely to see boost from Saudi entry to BRICS
Israel's defense chief: Iran has enough uranium for five nuclear bombs
​Sudan war threatens regional and global alliances
Iran’s Multifront Strategy Against Israel
Multi-front war with Iran proxies irks Israel despite deterrence
​Al-Monitor/Premise poll: Turkey’s election in dead heat, Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu tied at 45%
Sudan: Ex-regime members flee prison as another truce is disrupted
Iran's IRGC seizes oil tanker in Gulf of Oman
Conflict in Sudan, GCC's food basket, rattles Gulf investments
Turkey's 3.5 million expats vote in high numbers, as HDP endorses Kilicdaroglu
Saudi-led OPEC turns deaf ears on oil cuts amid global slowdown
Turkey election pledges foretell bigger budget deficit
​Iran-India meeting in Tehran focuses on de-dollarization, averting sanctions
Should the US worry about China's expanding influence in the Gulf?
​Iran's IRGC seizes second oil tanker in Gulf waters in six days, says US Navy
Saudi Aramco profit drops 19% on lower oil prices
​​Islamic State women use children as 'sex tools,' Syrian Kurdish officials say
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IRAN:  ALL IN ON ISRAEL; COUP IN SUDAN

4/10/2023

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Hal Brands, Peter Feaver, and William Inboden identify and “stress test” 17 key assumptions of this new consensus.
The Sudanese army said the RSF had tried to attack its troops after witnesses reported heavy gunfire in multiple parts of the country.  Read More...
Jonathan Spyer writes: If Israel continues to avoid escalation to war, it may eventually find that its deterrence erodes to the point that it can no longer guarantee Israelis normal lives. The desire for normalcy pursued at too high a cost ends up forfeiting the very thing it seeks. Israel should as a matter of urgency pursue the goal of restoring the eroded balance of terror that had largely held since 2006—even if this entails hitting the senior and junior members of the Iran-led regional axis. – Wall Street Journal
  • Middle East Forum’s Jonathan Spyer: Israel faces a two-front Ramadan war with Hezbollah and Hamas
  • JPost’s Seth J. Frantzman: Iran kickstarts multi-front Middle East war against Israel
  • "Iran is pushing Israel toward a multi-theater conflagration," Jacob Nagel, Israel Hayom
  • "Israel Answers Rocket Barrage with Air Raids in Lebanon and Gaza Strip," FDD Experts, FDD Flash Brief
Chuck Freilich writes: And now, we face a possible perfect storm, one which Israel’s intelligence agencies have been warning about for months, of a multi-front war. One need not be unusually creative to imagine the glee with which Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas must be viewing the disarray and self-inflicted processes of destruction underway in Israel. – Haaretz
Andrew Tabler writes: If there is not progress, the Arab countries normalising with al-Assad and engaging in reconstruction will almost certainly be hit with Treasury designations and other sanctions violations. Unless there are major changes in the way al-Assad rules and does business, including his tolerance of Iranian militias and assets on Syrian soil and Captagon production facilities, this will be yet another exercise of throwing good Arab money after bad to recoup their steady losses against Iran in the Levant. – Al Majalla

Seth J. Frantzman writes: However, today the Syrian regime is not in the same spot that it was back in 2015 or 2016. The regime is now seeking to retake more parts of the country. Syria is working with Russia and in talks with Iran and Turkey. Those talks continue to falter regarding Turkey’s withdrawal from northern Syria. However, the overall trend is clear. The regime wants to portray itself as in charge of the country. At the same time, the regime enables instability through the kinds of incidents like the rocket fire on Saturday night and Sunday morning. – Jerusalem Post
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Hezbollah doesn’t appear deterred, since it controls the area from which rockets were fired. In addition, Hamas leaders openly fly into Beirut and meet with Palestinian Islamic Jihad and plotted the attacks this past week during Passover. […]It’s also not clear if those who backed the deal and said it would include security will revisit this question and pressure Lebanon regarding its hosting of extremist groups. – Jerusalem Post
Salem Alketbi writes: Additionally, the evidence shows that the region is going through rapid transformations, making it challenging to rule out any possibilities. However, everything still hinges on Israel’s conduct and decisions, which must factor in these significant changes and act in a manner that advances its interests with Arab and Gulf states, particularly concerning de-escalating the situation with the Palestinians. – Jerusalem Post

Neville Teller writes: Saudi leaders no doubt believe that restoring diplomatic relations is a useful political ploy, but surely appreciate that the deal is superficial and cannot begin to touch the real problems that the Iranian regime poses to the Saudi kingdom and the rest of the world. The Sunni Arab world recognized some time ago who its main enemy was.  The Abraham Accords are one outcome. Saudi Arabia is widely perceived as on the brink of joining the association. Would its new reconciliation with Iran withstand the shock? – Jerusalem Post
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NEW RULES BASED ORDER IN MIDDLE EAST

3/29/2023

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Iran is pushing Israel toward a multi-theater conflagration
Is China playing long game against dollar in Middle East? 
Hemingway’s law of motion says change comes gradually, then suddenly.
Tunisia's problems grow worse while Kais Saied avoids public
When President Kais Saied reappeared recently after a two-week absence, he addressed a country whose political, economic and immigration woes grow steadily more intractable.
Autumn/Winter 2022/23
Egypt’s privatization plans stall despite growing buzz
Only a fraction of the targeted sales to Gulf investors have materialized over the last year, largely due to a general lack of agreement and volatility of the Egyptian economy
Pakistan tilts back to the West in multipolar era Read article
Israel Answers Rocket Barrage with Air Raids in Lebanon and Gaza Stri
Israeli forces storm Al-Aqsa, arrest over 300 as clashes resume with Hamas
The New Middle East Rules of the Rules-Based Order by Hussein Aboubakr Mansour
EMET
March 23, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64282/the-new-middle-east-rules-of-the-rules-based-order
Meet Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Turkey’s long-derided opposition head who could dethrone Erdogan
Increased gold reserves stabilize Turkey's currency ahead of May elections  
Top US general says ‘multiple options’ ready if Iran develops nuclear weapon
Israel's Netanyahu to continue judicial overhaul despite security warnings
Assad comeback epitomizes Gulf states' world power ambitions
Why global energy giants are increasing their presence in the Middle East and North Africa
Global energy companies have all made the strategic assumption that they will be able to invest in exploration and production in the Middle East for several decades to come.
Alternatives to ‘peace through strength’
Todd Bensman on Muslim Migrants on the U.S. Terror List Infiltrating the Southern U.S. Border by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
March 20, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64273/todd-bensman-on-muslim-migrants-on-the-us-terror
The Iraq War's Intelligence Failures Are Still Misunderstood
An Unprecedented Crisis in Israel
Can France Escape Its Pension Overhang?
For all the bombast from protestors, Macron’s reforms are just the latest round of tinkering to preserve a fundamentally dysfunctional system.
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U.S. & ISRAELI PILOTS TRAIN IN NEVADA TO BOMB IRAN

3/17/2023

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​Israel Must Send a Message to Its Enemies as China Enters the Middle East by Nave Dromi
The Jerusalem Post
https://www.meforum.org/64256/israel-must-send-a-message-to-its-enemies-as
FORCEFUL PERSUASION, COERCION, AND INVASION
China's Three Roads to Controlling Taiwan
According to Dan Blumenthal and Frederick W. Kagan,
China has three roads to victory over Taiwan, and the US must act urgently to obstruct all of them. 
rends That Will Define the Coming Years
Eyeing Iran’s Nuclear Program, U.S. and Israeli Militaries Train Together in Nevada
AEI ON JIHAD SEE FULL UPDATE
China Inaugurating a New World Order?​

#China’s regime believes it will not be safe until it destroys or subjugates all other societies. So are we going to defend ourselves or not? #CCP @LouDobbs https://t.co/s7IYHcleeM

— Gordon G. Chang (@GordonGChang) March 17, 2023
U.S., CHINA:
America’s Military Depends on Minerals That China Controls
The Betrayal of Baghdad
Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Angela Howard, George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan write: The Russian Federal State Security Service (FSB) appears to be trying to penetrate the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) in a way that is reminiscent of the KGB’s involvement with the Soviet military and industrial base. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that he received a press question exposing a plot spearheaded by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev to undermine and “neutralize” the Wagner Group. – Institute for the Study of War ​
Iranians Renew Protests as Regime Brutality Persists
Are We The Byzantines?
Silicon Valley’s Lesson: How To Change Banking To Prevent Crises And Bailouts
by John H. Cochrane via The Hill
The Caravan Issue 2238: US Foreign Policy in the Middle East: Taking Stock
On Marking To Market And Risk Management
The Fiscal Year 2024 Defense Budget
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TURKEY, A FAILED NATO MEMBER

3/6/2023

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Pentagon Publishes New ‘Joint Concept for Competing’
By Mark Pomerleau, DefenseScoop: “The Joint Staff recently published a new concept outlining how forces must compete with adversaries on a daily basis below the threshold of war.
Iran’s Slow Boil
Life Among The Ruins
Hamas Operatives in Turkey Recruit Palestinians for Terror Attacks
Ambiguity Surrounds Iran’s Purported Nuclear Concessions
Omer Moav On The Emergence Of The State
Libya’s Fragile Deadlock, 
Submarines Will Reign in a War with China
By Mike Sweeney, Proceedings: “The aircraft carrier, whatever realistic scenario or action is drawn . . . will be exposed to a wider range of threats than the submarine must face."
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A FAILED ARAB SPRING; ISRAELI PRE-EMPTION ON IRAN

2/22/2023

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THE STALLING VISIONS OF THE GULF-SAUDI ARABIA
WINEP, THE PROBLEM WITH VISION 2030
WINEP, WHAT'S CHANGED WITH SAUDI ARABIA
US INSTITUTE PEACE, TUNISIA 2022
TUNISIA COMES FULL CIRCLE AFTER REVOLUTION
Israel Must Prepare to Save the World from a Nuclear Iran
AL-MONITOR 
ISRAEL BUILDS AGAINST IRAN
The Iraqi Security Forces’ (ISF) inability to defeat ISIS in the northern Baghdad Belts could allow ISIS to attack Baghdad itself. An ISIS attack against Baghdad would be a propaganda boon for the group, while possibly triggering sectarian violence and ISF command changes that could improve the group’s position.  READ MORE >>

Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) is likely consolidating control over rural areas of southeastern Burkina Faso. The group is likely using these expanded havens to increase activity in neighboring regions of Burkina Faso and the littoral states.  READ MORE >>

The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) conducted its most deadly attack in Karachi in southeastern Pakistan since 2016, indicating an expansion of TTP attack zones and an increase in TTP capabilities in Karachi. READ MORE >>
SEE FULL UPDATE
Why the West Bank is in chaos
“Mapping Terrorism in the West Bank,” by Joe Truzman
Countering Structural Disruptions
US-China Economic Relations
Derek Scissors and James Pethokoukis
Political Economy
Thanks to Obama's 'Nuclear Deal,' Iran Now a Major Arms Exporter
Formulating Foreign Policy In The Middle East
Challenges To Israel’s Democracy
by Arye Carmon via The Hill
The deep rift over the ruling coalition’s malicious effort to undermine the foundations of democracy in Israel offers an exceptional opportunity to highlight some of the basic concepts of Israeli democracy, its vulnerability and the dangers to its very existence.
“Analysis: The Lions’ Den and the Future of Militant Activity in the West Bank,” by Joe Truzman
Fixing the Debt-Ceiling Crisis . . . via Gold
Paul H. Kupiec and Alex J. Pollock | ZeroHedge
What Would a Third Intifada Mean for Palestinians?
UKRAINE ISN'T ABOUT UKRAINE
Amir Taheri on Iran's Counter-Revolution by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
February 17, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64186/amir-taheri-on-iran-counter-revolution
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AYESHA SIDDIQA, AUTHOR OF MILITARY INC., EMASCULATES RULING PUNJABI MILITARY CLASS

2/15/2023

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Why Israelis Voted for Right-Wing Parties  by Bassam Tawil 
THE MILITARY BALANCE 2023
GLOBAL DEFENSE SPENDING
THE PRINT
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THE FRIDAY TIMES
NAJAM SETHI
Pakistan's 'Purification' Campaign Against Its Minorities
RAYMOND IBRAHIM
Israel Strikes Iranian Military Facility
West looks away as Tunisia’s Saeid 'dismantles' democracy
Along with expanding his presidential powers, President Kais Saied has nearly picked apart Tunisia's once-fledgling democracy; Western countries have barely responded.
Autumn/Winter 2022/23
After Oil-for-Security: A Blueprint for Resetting US-Saudi Security Relations
For the Saudis, external protection is the largest core concern in their relationship with Washington. Therefore, a fuller understanding of that concern and importantly, how it could be addressed, serves U.S. objectives. While there is a consensus among U.S. and Saudi officials and observers on the need to further upgrade the two countries’ defense relations, there is no serious discussion of how this could be achieved on a more strategic level. It’s time for Washington and Riyadh to reconfigure their security ties in accordance with new U.S. geopolitical priorities and new Saudi defense requirements. 
Read paper
2022's Biggest Hits at DanielPipes.org  by Daniel Pipes
https://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2023/01/2022-biggest-hits-at-danielpipesorg
The 10 Most Widely Read Middle East Forum Articles of 2022
News from the Middle East Forum
https://www.meforum.org/64050/top-ten-middle-east-forum-articles-of-2022
The Risks of Nuclear Proliferation in Asia, with Cristopher Preble, Zack Cooper, and Melanie Marlowe
202207-tellis_striking_asymmetries-final.pdf
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Don’t Fight the Last War
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EARTHQUAKE HITS FRAGILE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN; KING BIBI STRIDES JUDICIAL REFORM & MORE. . .

2/7/2023

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Ninety years ago today, Wilhelm Röpke confronted an audience in Frankfurt am Main about where Hitler was leading Germany.
READ MORE ›
The Arsenal of Tyranny
DANIEL MARKEY, US INSTITUTE PEACE: SW ASIA GEOPOLITICAL FAULT LINES GROWING FAST
How to help Kyiv go on a drone offensive
Strategika Issue 83: NATO And Ukraine
U.S. Takes Action to Stem Iran’s Drone Capabilities
In Turkey, questions about country's preparedness after massive earthquake
 Only 0.5% of spending from the central government budget last year went to programs related to urban improvements and disaster management in quake-prone Turkey.
MELANIE PHILLIPS OP-ED ISRAEL
CAROLINE GLICK OP-ED ISRAEL
Israel’s Constitutional Counterrevolution
by Peter Berkowitz via Real Clear PoliticsIn the 1990s, then-Israeli Supreme Court President Aharon Barak led a constitutional revolution, arrogating to the judiciary virtually unchecked power to rule on an expansive array of public issues. Today, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new coalition government is advancing proposals that promise to undo Barak’s constitutional revolution.
Israeli society facing flare-up over Netanyahu’s judicial shakeup
 The two camps supporting the Netanyahu government’s judicial shake-up and those opposing it have resorted to aggressive words and threats.
Egypt’s non-oil sector suffering under high inflation: Report
 Egypt is experiencing rising inflation and the depreciation of its currency, but the country’s stock exchange is doing well and the IMF recently agreed to a massive aid package.
Congress Has Been Crystal Clear What Kind of Amphibious Fleet It Wants.
Is the Pentagon Listening?
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “Rumor has it that in the runup to release of the president’s fiscal 2024 budget request, the Department of the Navy is not faring well. It will not be allowed to request funding sufficient to maintain readiness while growing the fleet."
Physical and Mental Combat Readiness
By Gustavo Arguello, Small Wars Journal: “The Army needs mentally and physically prepared Soldiers to meet operational environment demands across all war domains."

Can China Build a World-Class Military Using Artificial Intelligence?
By Koichiro Takagi, The War Zone: “Xi Jinping, at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on October 16, stated that China will more quickly elevate the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to a world-class military."
Is the U.S. Over-Militarizing Its China Strategy?
By Harlan Ullman, Atlantic Council: “. . . few have questioned whether or not such an assault by China was feasible, what military capability would be needed for both the assault and subsequent occupation, what other options China has regarding assimilating Taiwan, and how such an operation might be prevented."
Clipping the wings of Iran and its militias
​Seth Frantzman on Drones and the Transformation of Warfare by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
January 30, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64120/seth-frantzman-on-drones-and-the-transformation

Russia Exiled Them. Big Mistake.
Leon Aron | Politico
When it comes to regime change, domestic regime opponents and exiles have an important relationship. Leon Aron notes that this dynamic will influence whatever happens in the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s war has weakened him, yet opposition leaders inside Russia cannot do much to disseminate subversive revolutionary thoughts. Rather, millions of Russians visit the sites of self-exiled critical journalists and the US-funded Radio Liberty. Emerging from these writings, videos, and news reports is a vision of a post-Putin, post-authoritarian, democratic Russia. That, ultimately, is why Russia’s political exiles deserve the West’s admiration and help. Learn more here. >>

Biden’s Escalation in Ukraine Is About Diplomacy, Not Victory
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
The war in Ukraine is reaching a new phase, and US strategy is undergoing an important shift. Hal Brands notes that fears of a long war of attrition are causing the US to update its strategy in three ways. First, the war is better defining American war aims. Second, the US and its allies are sending Ukraine more sophisticated weapons. Third, President Joe Biden may not envision Ukraine liberating Crimea by force, but he has reportedly become supportive of strikes against Russian targets there. There is a unifying logic behind these decisions. The US does not want the war to drag on forever, so Biden aims to help Ukraine dial up the pressure on Russian forces and perhaps shift the lines further in Ukraine's favor. Continue here. >>
​The New Budget: Still Not India’s Turn
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
Another Indian government budget, another set of predictions that it is India’s turn to shine. Derek Scissors explains that nothing in India’s current policies or performance suggests anything like durably fast growth leading to national prosperity. Instead, the Indian economy will muddle along with partial success marred by unwillingness to reform. The new budget itself belies optimism. As with labor mobilization, agricultural productivity, and infrastructure boosts, India’s fiscal “glide path” is stuck. With Chinese economic weakness on display in 2022 and the world slowing in 2023, India hype may intensify, and India will outperform. However, it is not on course to reach lofty long-term goals, chiefly because its politicians have long lacked the nerve for needed change. Learn more here. >>
Dogfight Football: Germany and the Art of Strategy
Kori Schake | 49security
Military officials often mistake planning for strategy. Kori Schake explains that to make a good strategy, the German government must clearly identify its goals and not just narrow the scope of its tools to money. Repairing the military apparatuses that successive German governments have allowed to atrophy will be one crucial part of a German national security strategy. Another will be explaining how Germany will achieve energy independence while meeting its climate goals. Germany cannot remain a European leader without substantively contributing to the new demands posed by Europe’s current security crisis. Berlin needs to put ideas forward for how to restabilize Europe and deal with the political and human consequences of Russia’s depredations. Learn more here. >>
Surface Navy Brass Holding ‘Sustainment Summits’ To Fix Ship Maintenance Issues
By Justin Katz, Breaking Defense: “RADM Fred Pyle said the service is "absolutely not" where it needs to be on ship cannibalization rates."
U.S., IRAN:
U.S. Worried About Iranian Military Presence in the Americas
By Margarita Arredondas, Atalayar: “Lula da Silva's government allows two Iranian warships to dock in Rio de Janeiro port."
The Marine Corps’ Light Amphibious Warship Seems To Be Faltering.
Here Is a Novel Solution.
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "When the Pentagon revised its defense strategy to focus on China in 2018, no military service moved faster than the Marine Corps to begin making changes."

Does Artificial Intelligence Change the Nature of War?
By Baptiste Alloui-Cros, Military Strategy Magazine: "In his book, ‘Men against Fire’, the American General S.L.A. Marshall designated the battlefield as ‘the epitome of war’[i], where everything that characterises the deep essence of war, as theorised by Clausewitz, comes into action."
Fear Has Big Eyes
By Stephen Blank, RealClearDefense: “Russia either has just launched its expected offensive or it is imminent.  Yet Ukraine’s allies are still unable or unwilling to give it the full complement of what it needs to win."

Why the Liberal Hawks Rule the Roost
By Matthew Petti, The Critic: “Get ready for the next idiot crusade."
Japan’s Strategic Imperative
By Joseph S. Nye, The Strategist (ASPI): "In December, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced the most ambitious expansion of military power in Japan since the creation of the country’s self-defence forces in 1954."
Pakistan's Meltdown 
Decades-old political economic problems in Pakistan are coming to a head. The South Asian nation needs billions of dollars in financial assistance to avoid a default at a time when its usual patrons are disinclined to bail it out. Even if Islamabad dodges this bullet, it will have to massively overhaul the way it has managed the country.
Read More
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THE SLAUGHTER IN JERUSALEM

1/29/2023

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OPINIONS; ISRAELI'S BEST DAILY NEWSPAPER
CAROLINE GLICK
Coming Out as an Arab Advocate of Peace with Israel
Nicholas Eberstadt and his coauthors present a national strategy for countering North Korea.
What You Need to Know About the Debt Ceiling
Quantum Principles
By Dante K. Earle, Military Strategy Magazine: "For centuries, military theorists, planners, and commanders alike have looked to the past for guidance."

Ten Things I Learned by Skimming Thucydides
By John Nagl & Matthew Woessner, War Room: "It’s the day before oral comp exams. While my gullible classmates have been busy rereading Thucydides, I skimmed the text (It’s only a lot of reading if you do it!) and to be on the safe side, rewatched the movie 300."

The Most Important Foreign Policy Paper of the 20th Century
By Francis P. Sempa, RealClearDefense: “On the evening of January 25, 1904, at the Royal Geographical Society’s meeting at its building located on 1 Savile Row in London, Halford Mackinder delivered a paper titled “The Geographical Pivot of History.”
John Foster Dulles represented the apex of liberal mainline Protestantism's influence on American power and policy.
READ MORE 
 Taking a Step Toward a Better Understanding of Friedrich Hayek’s Road to Serfdom
David Schenker writes: The well-being of Jordan’s economy—and, by extension, its domestic stability—are no less important to regional security than developments between Israel and the Palestinians. President Biden’s meeting with King Abdullah is a good opportunity to discuss the trajectory of this key issue and encourage Amman to stay the course on economic reform. – Washington Institute
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HAMAS INCITES VIOLENCE SHOWING CAPTURED ISRAELI SINCE 2014

1/17/2023

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Israeli Forces Eliminate Terror Cell Planning Major Attacks
The Struggle for Israel’s Democracy
Faced with the prospect of judicial reform, Israel’s progressive elite and its American allies are threatening to tear the country apart
BY GADI TAU
Hamas Releases Video of Israeli Hostage Held Since 2014
France Settles l'Affaire Houellebecq — at Least for Now by Michel Gurfinkiel
The New York Sun
January 11, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64024/france-settles-laffaire-houellebecq-at-least-for
Halevi Takes Charge of IDF With An Eye on Iran and Domestic Politics
Germany’s Bet on China Is a Crisis in the Making
50 Women Abducted in Northern Burkina Faso. Suspected Jihadists abducted 50 women according to local officials and some eyewitnesses who managed to escape.  The women reportedly were searching for food due to widespread food shortages in the region when they were taken.  The incident happened in the Sahel region which has been the scene of jihadist activity.  Burkina Faso has been battling a decades-long conflict with insurgents which has displaced more than two million people.   The military took power last January promising to end the violence.  BBC ​
​Al-Monitor/Premise poll: Majority in Egypt, Turkey and Tunisia on edge over food access
​‘Saudi first’ propels a shift toward strings-attached aid policy
Assessing China’s Likely Use of Military Power Against Taiwan in 2023
Michael Mazza | Global Taiwan Institute
The People’s Liberation Army is likely to maintain a high tempo of military activities around Taiwan in 2023 due to China’s domestic challenges, the political calendar in Taiwan, and American and allied efforts to transform force structure and posture in the region.
Full Story
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HOW ISRAEL WINS; IMRAN KHANS ENDGAME FAILS....AGAIN

1/8/2023

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Explainer: The Jihadi Threat in 2022
How Can Israel Win the Palestinian Conflict?
Historian Explainsby Daniel Pipes
Jerusalem Post
January 7, 2023
https://www.danielpipes.org/21639/how-can-israel-win-the-palestinian-conflict
Background: The Fight Over the Temple Mount by Benjamin Weinthal
Fox News
January 4, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/63971/background-the-fight-over-the-temple-mount
0 Comments

ISRAEL RE-ESTABLISHES DETERRENCE; SUDAN AT THE CROSSROADS

12/16/2022

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Alberto M. Fernandez: Sudan at the Crossroads  by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
December 9, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63906/alberto-m-fernandez-sudan-at-the-crossroads
Targeting Hamas, Israel tries to reestablish deterrence in Gaza
Iran Protests: Inside the Kurdish Uprising Against the Iranian Regime  by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
December 16, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63907/iran-protests-inside-the-kurdish-uprising-against
Dan Schueftan: Israel's Opportunities and Challenges  by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
December 12, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63905/dan-schueftan-israel-opportunities-and-challenge
Erdoğan Places Bounties on Critics Abroad -- Targeted in New Jersey
by Abdullah Bozkurt
Nordic Monitor
December 12, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63900/erdogan-places-bounties-on-critics-abroad
'The Regime Will Lose Control': Interview with an Iranian Revolutionary by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
December 9, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63899/the-regime-will-lose-control-interview-with
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THE WRATH OF KHAN HAS FAILED; BEIJING ON EDGE

12/7/2022

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Al Qaeda Leaders Use Afghanistan as a Safe Haven
By Bill Roggio, FDD's Long War Journal: “Since 2001, the Taliban has consistently claimed that Al Qaeda has no presence in Afghanistan."
The Navy Needs a Low-Yield Nuclear Weapon
By Brandon M. Patterson, Proceedings: "The renewed danger of nuclear war will turn U.S. inhibitions about it into a weapon in the hands of those determined to challenge global equilibrium."

The Chip Industry and National Security
By Michael Hochberg & Leonard Hochberg, The War Zone: “The U.S. should move expeditiously to reinforce its relationships with liberal-democratic allies.”
The Never-Ending Two-State Delusion  by Efraim Karsh
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
November 30, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63881/the-never-ending-two-state-delusion
0 Comments

HOW BEST TO UNDERSTAND THE UNRAVELING OF PAKISTAN

11/28/2022

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THE HYBRID REGIME CALLED PAKISTAN
0 Comments

BIDEN ADMIN WORRIED ABOUT CENTCOM CRITICISM WHILE IGNORING PACING THREAT OF BEIJING

11/11/2022

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1) Extremely Ominous Warning About #China From #US Strategic Command Chief

Admiral Richard says “the big one” is coming soon & the "ship is slowly sinking" in terms of US deterrence.

"China is simply going to out-compete us & Russia isn’t going anywhere”https://t.co/0edleRH3zR

— Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Military News (@IndoPac_Info) November 7, 2022
  • Hudson Institute’s Michael Doran and Can Kasapoğlu: Iran’s ballistic missiles and the folly of appeasement
  • Israel hits suspected Iran weapons convoy in Syria with airstrikes
The full purpose of the underground complex remains unknown. Based on official Iranian accounts, the new tunnel complex is intended to house a new, large centrifuge assembly facility to replace the Iranian Centrifuge Assembly Center (ICAC) destroyed in an attack in July 2020. If this plant has the same size as the destroyed facility, it will be able to assemble about 8,000 IR-2m and IR-4 centrifuges per year. – Institute for Science and International Securit
Hal Brands writes: Australian officials told me they worry that it will be difficult to generate tons of new military capabilities in the next half-decade, so one way to strengthen deterrence is to make as clear as possible that Beijing will face a powerful democratic coalition if it attacks Taiwan. After all, it seems likely that Australia, like Washington and Tokyo, would find it hard to avoid such a fight. One critical question, in Canberra and elsewhere, is how explicitly to make this known in advance. Next up in this series: India. – Bloomberg
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PAKISTAN'S POLITICAL CHAOS:  HOW WE GOT HERE

10/30/2022

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Israel is Fighting to Prevent a Third Intifada

Fascinating essay by @NadeemfParacha: The Political Making And Mutation Of Pakistan’s New Middle-Class via @tft_ https://t.co/QgwKKly1f2

— Raza Ahmad Rumi (@Razarumi) October 27, 2022
China's Expansion Into The South China Sea With Michael Auslin
Pacific Century: Xi’s The One | Michael Auslin | Hoover Institution
Netanyahu within reach of comeback in Israeli election
Tunisia’s Islamists under siege as Saied rolls back democracy
IMF loan unlikely to save Tunisia's economy
Can floating Egyptian pound kill foreign currency black market?
US military kills three senior Islamic State leaders in Syria strikes
​Turkey's energy deal in Libya fans regional rivalries
​Saudi economic relations with sub-Saharan Africa continue to grow
Algeria relaxes rules for foreign investors
​Netanyahu plays dangerous game as extremist bloc grows stronger
​One year after coup, Sudan’s political future still uncertain

Replug from 2020: We Must Tell The Truth To Our Younger Generation And Stop Lying About Our History https://t.co/O7rqIg75W2 via @nayadaurpk

— Yousuf Nazar (@YousufNazar) October 31, 2022

Fascinating essay by @NadeemfParacha: The Political Making And Mutation Of Pakistan’s New Middle-Class via @tft_ https://t.co/QgwKKly1f2

— Raza Ahmad Rumi (@Razarumi) October 27, 2022

Pakistan’s Institutional Wreckage via @tft_ https://t.co/Ij4hjslQYa

— William Holland (@WilliamHolland) October 9, 2022

Looming Disaster via @tft_ https://t.co/pxQtXohEMW

— William Holland (@WilliamHolland) October 9, 2022

Replug of May 2022 article: Five Steps Pakistan Needs To Take To Resolve Its Grave Economic Crisis and how Energy Crisis derailed the economy https://t.co/wNrBGEuDaw

— Yousuf Nazar (@YousufNazar) September 19, 2022
0 Comments

RUSSIA PLAYS LONG GAME IN MIDDLE EAST

10/24/2022

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Summer 2022 Issue MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE
US CHINA TECHNOLOGY COMPETITION
US Military Readiness
Russia, Iran's Mullahs Deepen Ties to Crush Ukraine: Why Is Biden Administration Silent?​
Russia’s Subtle Victory in the Middle East
Russia has deftly navigated the complex geopolitical environment of the Middle East and emerged as a real power broker.
READ MORE 
Did China “Destroy” Globalization?
Derek Scissors | International Economy Magazine
China, with ongoing aid from sometimes naive foreign partners, is in the process of effectively destroying globalization.
Full Story
James C. Capretta: Reforming US Health Policy
James Pethokoukis and James C. Capretta | Political Economy
We often hear that health care in the United States is expensive, but what does that mean exactly? How can policymakers reform our health care system with a market-based approach?
Listen
Biden Embraces America's Fiercest Enemies: Whose Side Is He On?

ECP decision to disqualify @ImranKhanPTI in the Toshakhana reference was just a warning shot, @najamsethi says#PTI #PTIOfficial #PTILongMarch #ImranKhan #imrankhanPTI https://t.co/KbGvh0lCfi

— The Friday Times (@TFT_) October 21, 2022
THEODORE DALRYMPLE
Britain’s Ill Wind
With her incapacity and utter lack of common sense, Liz Truss deepened the already-formidable problems of her country.
Don’t Let Up on North Korea
Biden’s energy policy is empowering the West’s enemies
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ISRAELI LEFT CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE....AGAIN

9/18/2022

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Ahmed Buhejji writes: The Gulf states have been more successful than Israel in diversifying their exposure to the three powers. Despite the normalization of relations through the Abraham Accords, Israel is not fully integrated with Gulf states and has a unique relationship with the United States. As a result, Israel perceives such dilemmas differently. – The National Interest
Food crisis looms over Tunisia
 As food grows scarcer in Tunisia, more residents are growing upset at the government's inaction.
Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy, by Michael Kofman and Anya Loukianova Fink
Gordon Gray writes: Ultimately, there is only so much the United States can do. Friends of democracy should support their Tunisian counterparts, but it is of course up to Tunisians to choose their country’s future path. By the time the next presidential elections take place in 2024, it’s very possible that Tunisians will have tired of Saied. Their focus is on the economy. Saied’s blend of Ben Ali’s authoritarianism and Muammar Qaddafi’s political philosophy is unlikely to meet Tunisians’ pressing needs. – The National Interest
Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine, with Anya Loukianova Fink
Israel’s Lapid soars in polls but has no camp behind him
 Recent polls show growing electoral support for Prime Minister Yair Lapid, even though parties within the center-left camp might chose to back his rival Defense Minister Benny Gantz.
Lapid’s coalition crumbles ahead of Israeli elections
 Unlike opposition head Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister Yair Lapid has failed to unite his camp ahead of the November elections.
Hal Brands writes: China isn’t making this mistake. As Beijing’s propaganda outlets issue chilling threats about what will happen to its enemies if conflict occurs, its shipyards and factories are spitting out warships and munitions at an astounding rate. The arsenal of autocracy may soon be ready for war. Will the arsenal of democracy be up to the challenge? – Bloomberg
Tunisian opposition to boycott legislative elections
 Political forces in Tunisia are divided over the upcoming legislative elections announced by President Kais Saied, with the country’s main opposition alliance announcing its boycott of the vote over the controversial measures Saied has taken since last year.
Israel Reveals Iranian Missile Production Sites in Syria
The Fed Needs A Rule
citing John B. Taylor via Newsweek
​Inflation isn't going away anytime soon. Consumer prices rose 8.3% in August, higher than most analysts predicted. There are worrying signs price pressures are broadening: Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, reached 6.3%. Wages are rising too, but not fast enough to compensate for two years of eroding purchasing power. The data are clear: American families are hurting.
Private Accounts Are No Silver Bullet
Better ways exist to rein in the costs of entitlement programs.
Israel’s Defense Minister Reveals Syrian Military Sites Used to Produce Advanced Weapons for Iran
Oktay Kucukdegirmenci writes: In the current rivalry between the United States and China, if New Delhi joins the U.S. vision for the Indo-Pacific, it will only become a strategic pawn of the United States. However, what is most beneficial for India is for New Delhi to remain neutral between the two states, acting as a counterweight to both. By working to maintain a regional equilibrium, India can assert its interests while capitalizing on its geostrategic birthright. – The National Interest
Nicholas Saidel writes: America’s diplomatic and military posture in the eastern Mediterranean must realign with new realities. The right balance of proactive statecraft and application of a more muscular deterrence strategy would restore calm to the eastern Mediterranean. Moreover, it would ensure that most littoral states of the eastern Mediterranean are well within the West’s orbit for the foreseeable future. – The National Interest
Kris Osborn writes: Force Design 2030 calls for a fast-moving expeditionary force equipped with anti-armor weapons and supported by ship-fired missiles, drones, and unmanned systems. In a conceptually similar manner to Ukraine’s land warfare tactics, the Marines envision a mix of longer-range weapons with “close-in” fight strategies and a significant increase in the use of unmanned systems. While in different domains, there are conceptual parallels related to the Ukraine effort that can be applied to future amphibious warfare operations. – The National Interest

Caleb Larson writes: Force Design 2030 also directs the Marine Corps to establish distributed logistics and resupply chains whenever possible, eschewing static—and vulnerable—ammunition dumps. Berger believes that adapting resupply to a maritime environment will give Marines the edge in a war in the Pacific. – The National Interest
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IRAN, BIDEN & THE MIDDLE EAST

9/9/2022

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The Syrian Crisis and US Policy
The Fiscal vs. Monetary Theory of Inflation
How Congress Can Revive the Constitution
What Iran's Terrorist Proxies Will Do with Biden's Concessions and Billions​
A Transformative U.S. Strategy for Africa: 
A Proposal for New Wine in a New Bottle
By Amelia Griffith, Strategy Bridge: “The socio-economic development and stability of African countries have long been linked to the promotion of U.S. national interests."
New MEQ Features Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak
News from the Middle East Forum
September 8, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63557/new-meq-features-former-israeli-pm-ehud-barak
The Islamic State, HTS, And The U.S. Role In Syria
by Cole Bunzel via The CaravanIn August 2011, several months after the outbreak of the Syrian rebellion, President Barack Obama called on President Bashar al-Asad to leave.
In Syria, Pariahs Are Partners
by Michael Doran via The CaravanThe day after Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed his forces on Ukraine, Ned Price, the State Department spokesman, launched a retaliatory barrage at Moscow—a barrage of adjectives.
Lessons in “religious pluralism and democratic institutions” were hallmarks of India’s independence movement, write Research Fellow Dinsha Mistree and Visiting Fellow Sumit Ganguly, when “India’s leaders advanced a progressive and modern vision for their new country, eschewing a national Hindu religion in favor of a secular identity.” ​
Three Secret Military Time Management Tips
By Jessica Evans, We Are the Mighty: "Time management isn’t just key to a successful career in the military. It’s critical to, well, just about everything."
Internecine Knife Fights Are Killing The U.S. Navy And American Maritime
By Craig Hooper, Forbes: "By all rights, this should be a golden age in maritime investment and in the formulation of modern American maritime policy."

Rethinking Deterrence:  How and Why
By Keith B. Payne, National Institute for Public Policy: "Many folks now ask me about the emerging “trilateral deterrence” threat environment."

Lessons on Civil-Military Relations From the Benedict Arnold’s Infamous Treason,
a Case Study With Contemporary Applications
By Gerald Krieger, Small Wars Journal: “America's national security strategy is a military posture that contains political elements."
Syrian Tragedy, Turkish Error, American Failing
by Russell A. Berman via The CaravanSyria is the humanitarian catastrophe of the century. The Bashar al-Assad regime has been engaging in systematic attacks on its own population, not only to suppress a movement calling for democratization--the Syrian version of the Arab Spring--but to carry out an intentional program of demographic reengineering.
Why We Should Study War
by Victor Davis Hanson via PolicyEdMilitary history teaches us about honor, sacrifice, and the inevitability of conflict. 
The Key To Understanding Putin's Game Of Thrones
by Thomas Weber via HaaretzA speech by the Russian leader in a Greek monastery in 2016 explains why Russia is at war today.
The Logic Behind Turkey’s Fifth Syrian Operation
by Richard Outzen via The CaravanIn the remainder of 2022 many Middle East watchers expect a major Turkish military operation in northern Syria, the fifth in seven years.
The First Energy War of the 21st Century
Mark Mills, National Review
Domestic Political Chaos Is Not the Only Thing Happening in Iraq
Daniel Serwer
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PAKISTAN, TURKEY, TUNISIA, EGYPT AND ISRAEL:  CURRENCIES & CONFLICTS

8/29/2022

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Imran Khan is wrong about building large dams to prevent flooding. Dams like Bhasha are for generating electricity & storing water for irrigation. They compound the problem. Please read this EU paper BEST PRACTICES
ON FLOOD PREVENTION https://t.co/OA1X3p9hEh

— Yousuf Nazar (@YousufNazar) August 28, 2022
​Biden’s Iran Nuclear Deal Sets the Stage for a Real "Forever War"
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner
Joe Biden may believe he is furthering diplomacy, but by convincing Tehran that it can act without consequence, he is setting the stage for a real “forever war” across the region.
THE FRIDAY TIMES

Nothing can be truer than the fact that all Pakistan’s problems -- social, political, legal, or economic -- can only be solved if we follow the constitution, and make an example out of those who refuse to do so @tft_ https://t.co/yNSAwepK88

— The Friday Times (@TFT_) August 29, 2022
​Turkey’s 'covert' interest payments on course to exceed regular ones
​Turkey cuts interest rates as Erdogan continues to defy economic wisdom
​Turkey grapples with policy change on Syria
​Tunisian police unions clash with president's plan to unify security forces
​Israel raises interest rates
​New Trend Report: How the global food crisis will impact the Middle East
​Arab Israeli coalition could split again as election approaches
​Egypt's Central Bank governor resigns amid economic crisis
​Tourism up 128% in Turkey with travelers from Germany, Russia
​US airstrikes target bunkers used by Iran-linked militias in Syria
​Egypt’s foreign reserves drop 19% due to economic crisis caused by Russia-Ukraine war
​Iran's FM seeks Africa ties to boost sanctions-hit economy 
​Saudi Arabia to invest $1 billion in Pakistan, following UAE and Qatar
​On visit to Algeria, France’s Macron advances post-colonial reconciliation
​Egypt rethinks water strategy, starting with new irrigation minister
The End of Two Illusions: Islam after the West  by Hamid Dabashi
Oakland: University of California Press, 2022. 333 pp. $29.95.
https://www.meforum.org/63280/the-end-of-two-illusions-islam-after-the-west
Muslims and the Making of Modern Europe by Emily Greble
New York: Oxford University Press, 2021. 354 pp. $35.
https://www.meforum.org/63285/muslims-and-the-making-of-modern-europe
The Ottoman World: A Cultural History Reader, 1450-1700 Edited by Hakan T. Karateke and Helga Anetshofer. Oakland: University of California Press, 2021. 379 pp. $150 ($39.95, paper).
https://www.meforum.org/63287/the-ottoman-world-a-cultural-history-reader
The Politics of Persecution: Middle Eastern Christians in an Age of Empire by Mitri Raheb
Waco, Tex.: Baylor University Press, 2021. 207 pp. $24.99.
https://www.meforum.org/63289/the-politics-of-persecution-middle-eastern-christians
Revolutionary Life: The Everyday of the Arab Spring by Asef Bayat
Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2021. 336 pp. $35.
https://www.meforum.org/63290/revolutionary-life-the-everyday-of-the-arab-spring
Rafael Grossi Is the Last Man Standing For Nonproliferation
​
Iaqi Cleric al-Sadr to Quit Politics.  Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr announced Monday that he is withdrawing from politics and closing his offices over a political deadlock with his opponents. Al-Sadr’s supporters have been protesting in Baghdad’s government zone in support of his call to dissolve parliament to prevent his Iran-backed rivals from forming a new government. After his announcement, they stormed government headquarters, forcing a halt to cabinet sessions and sparking fears of further escalation. Al-Sadr has announced his withdrawal from politics before and then returned to political life, but current tensions may keep him permanently out. 
​ Al Jazeera New York Times Reuters
Israeli Strikes Hit Syria Military Facility.  Israeli airstrikes caused massive damage at a military facility in the city of Masyaf in western Syria on Thursday. Syrian and Russian state media reported the attack and satellite imagery confirmed damage from the strikes. Syrian opposition activists say the attack hit a missile depot used by Iran-backed fighters. War monitors say the attack killed one Syrian army captain but did not affect an underground facility used to develop missiles under the supervision of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.  Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters
 
US-Backed Syrian Kurds Move Against Islamic State.  US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces launched an operation against Islamic State sleeper cells in the northeastern al-Hol detention camp. Violence in the camp, which holds refugees and families of suspected IS fighters, has killed at least 44 people in the last year. The UN says conditions at the camp are “catastrophic” and is urging for the creation of a “safe space” to protect women and children there.  Reuters
Saint Augustine: Founding Philosopher of History
0 Comments

LOOKING BACK ON THE BRITISH RAJ; ANALYSIS GLOBAL POLITICAL ECONOMY

8/15/2022

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Rushdie has faced a fatwa for decades. Here’s the history behind them
"Iran and Russia Strengthen Their Partnership," 
"Connecting the Dots from Tehran to Gaza,"
Iran's Proxy War Against Israel Caused by Biden's Weakness
Matan Tzuri writes: Most of the Gaza border community residents are satisfied with the outcome of last week’s IDF operation, and the south looks like its back to normal … for now. Some remedy for the broken soul. With post trauma, you can only learn to live with the pain, it may get less painful with time, but it will never stop hurting. – Ynet 

Hadeel Oueis writes: The Abraham Accords were an excellent opportunity to break the political taboos once considered unbreakable in the Arab world. Still, it was not alone the reason for the new trend of opposing the Islamist groups in Gaza. […]It’s demonstrated in active ways when thousands of Lebanese and Iraqis protest the influence of the Iranian-backed militias, but achieving any tangible wins against Iran’s destructive influence in the region is beyond the capability of the Arab youth, and requires a US coherent plan and active engagement in the region, which doesn’t exist so far. – Jerusalem Post

Masterful survey of the past three quarters of a century of Indian diplomacy by @ShivshankaMenon

Part of The Wire's India@75 series of articles.#AzadiKaAmritMahotsav https://t.co/75qaeEjUeM via @thewire_in

— Siddharth (@svaradarajan) August 14, 2022
Israel Victory Can Solve the Palestinian Issue
Neokohn (Budapest)
August 9, 2022
https://www.danielpipes.org/21364/israel-victory-can-solve-the-palestinian-issue

Dr Shashi Tharoor's lecture at Edinburgh University - Looking Back at the British Raj in India https://t.co/HfoldABFal

— Yousuf Nazar (@YousufNazar) August 15, 2022
Why Palestinian Islamic Jihad Rockets Kill So Many Palestinians

On the anniversary of partition, let’s consign the pitiless logic of Hindu v Muslim to the past | Pankaj Mishra and Ali Sethi https://t.co/Y5JXYF9pqO

— Sushant Singh (@SushantSin) August 14, 2022
Azhar Al-Rubaie writes: Iraqi and international calls for calm and to bring the parties to the table to resolve the current crisis have not stopped the Sadrist demonstrations inside the Green Zone, now in their second week. Saleh Mohammed al-Iraqi has called for the demonstrations to continue, saying they are “very important for achieving the demands.” Meanwhile, the Iraqi people must continue to wait for the formation of the Iraqi government, after their interests have been continually obstructed by political deadlock and paralysis. – Washington Institute
Tunisia’s government and both its main labour and commerce unions agreed on Friday to start talks on Monday over economic reforms required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a rescue programme. – Reuters ​
Josh Rogin writes: Fabricating more semiconductors here at home is long overdue and will have many benefits. But it doesn’t get us far in dealing with the broader economic threat from Beijing. China’s predatory investing, unfair trade practices and technological expansion are increasing. The vital effort to protect our economic and national security from China’s aggression must continue, and both parties must join the fight. – Washington Post
Edward Lucas writes: This is no reason for complacency. China’s successes may be flimsy, but they still reflect gaps created by Western failure. The stuttering pace of EU enlargement in the Western Balkans, timidity in confronting the headstrong Hungarian leadership, failure to show solidarity with Lithuania over Taiwan, and the neglect of Chinese-language teaching in CEE universities were not the result of Chinese pressure. But they created conditions which the CCP could, and did, exploit. The Chinese leadership may be on the back foot now. But it thinks long term. And we, mostly, do not. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Daniel F. Runde writes: For its part, Pakistan should recommit to structural reform of the Pakistani economy, addressing longstanding issues of revenue collection and attractiveness for foreign investment. It can build on the “geoeconomics” initiative of the previous administration to make Pakistan live up to its considerable economic potential. The United States and Pakistan should repair, and restore our broken relationship, dispel misconceptions and take a long view seeking stronger ties based on economics and other non-security issues. – The Hill
0 Comments

TUNISIA'S NEW FALTERING POLITICAL ORDER AFTER THE ARAB SPRING

7/31/2022

0 Comments

 
U.S. INSTITUTE PEACE
Tunisians vote to expand president’s powers
AL MONITOR COVERS TUNISIA'S NEW CONSTITUTION
​Most Tunisians sit out referendum
​Here's how the latest US rate hike will impact Egypt's economy
​Fourth Turkish drilling ship begins energy exploration in Mediterranean
HOOVER DIGEST 2022
​Russia offers Erdogan economic lifeline
Muqtada al-Sadr uses street pressure to set political conditions for his rivals
 Influential Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr vowed that new elections would be held as his followers flocked to a mass prayer in the occupied parts of Baghdad’s Green Zone after 10 months of political deadlock.
Egypt’s Ministry of Antiquities recently announced the discovery of the sarcophagus of Wahipra Merinit, who was the “commander of foreign soldiers” during the late 26th dynasty. The discovery is revealing never before known facts about the period when the Egyptian army began to rely on mercenary soldiers from the Greeks and the Mediterranean islands.

Pity that the army chief of nuclear power could get in touch only with a junior US official, not NSA Jake Sullivan or CJCS Mark Milley. This, indirectly, exposes the fake conspiracy theory of Imran Khan. As I have stated repeatedly, Pakistan is not that important globally.

— Yousuf Nazar (@YousufNazar) July 30, 2022
U.S. DEFENSE FORCE NOT BUDGETED SERIOUSLY 

China imports much of its protein from US/allies (150 million metric tonnes/annum of meat, soy, not easily smuggled) It can reduce fuel use + increase fuel imports from Ru/Kazakh .But today's Chinese would starve on a Mao diet & its vast rice stocks will not do. Empty threats https://t.co/oozfxTniQZ

— Edward N Luttwak (@ELuttwak) July 30, 2022
The Fed Needs Fiscal Help
The Ecological Origins of Economic and Political Systems
The Roots of Black Economic Progress
Iran's Satellite Program Is a Growing Threat  by Seth J. Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
July 25, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63409/iran-satellite-program-is-a-growing-threat
Getting Ready for a Long War with China
July 30, 2022In his latest report, Hal Brands envisions the dynamics of a potential conflict with Communist China. Not only will that confrontation pose greater risks of conventional and nuclear escalation, he finds, but it is also unlikely to be short or geographically limited to flash points like the Taiwan Strait. With these challenges in mind, he proposes that American strategists must consider six crucial priorities: "endurance, resilience, coercion, termination, exploitation, and continuation."
Is China Shrinking?
The Pentagon Gets the Better Part of a Trillion Dollars a Year. Why Isn't That Enough?

An increasingly brittle force due to scarcity in the defense budget that builds up and calcifies over time b/c of policymakers’ inability to tackle third rails & make truly hard choices (& cutting procurement is the opposite of “painful trade off”) —>https://t.co/rCm0n5WQVE https://t.co/jmycmuHVTs

— Mackenzie Eaglen (@MEaglen) July 26, 2022
Russian company begins construction at Egypt’s first nuclear power plant
Russia's state-owned atomic energy company, Rosatom, and the Egyptian Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy have begun work at the Dabaa nuclear power plant, Egypt’s first.
Fragments of Israeli rightwing parties gamble on merging ahead of elections
 The broken Yamina party and the two-member Derech Eretz party are hoping that their merger will get them into the next Knesset.
Tehran, the Day After
​What might happen in Iran if America or Israel bombed the nuclear sites?
The Next Salafi-Jihadi Wave: Capabilities, Resources, and Opportunity 
​| Emily Estelle | May 16, 2022.
Algeria Leads Campaign to Rehabilitate Assad Regime
0 Comments

THE MULLAH'S FIGHT ON

7/27/2022

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0 Comments

TEAM BIDEN: WHAT DO THE SAUDI'S WANT.

7/14/2022

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KHAN TAKES PUNJAB, THE FRIDAY TIMES
Dejection and Despair
Will PML-N Survive The Challenge?
Dusted and Done?
What next?
Miltablishment “Neutrality”?
Desperate Khan
It’s All About The Intra-Elite Conflict – But What For?

"General Bajwa simply could not tell the officers and cadres that the potion they had been consistently fed is poison. The groundswell support that Khan enjoys within the army has made him virtually untouchable; against whom the top brass could not retaliate', writes @mazdaki https://t.co/itWff0d7cK

— Yousuf Nazar (@YousufNazar) July 21, 2022
MELANIE PHILLIPS:  BITTING THE BULLET
ARABS IN ISRAELI POLITICS, GONE
THE CASE AGAINST BIBI
​THE CAUSES OF INFLATION
​THE ASSASSINS CASTLE SYRIA
Kris Osborn writes: An ability to make substantial improvements quickly through MOSA not only increases efficiency, speed of modernization, and lowers costs but also brings the critical advantage of lowering weight. Agility, speed and aerial performance are all key performance parameters impacted by weight, so optimizing operational functionality at lighter weights generates highly sought after advantages for engineers. – The National Interest
HOW BYZANTIUM SURVIVED ARAB INVASIONS
BIBI STILL LEADS
THE MULLAH'S BUILD UNDERGROUND
HOW IRAN LEADS IN IRREGULAR WARFARE
WITH BIDEN, AMERICAN'S DON'T LEAD
Salem Alketbi writes: The militias represent the main bulwark of a revolutionary regime that, despite more than three decades since the most remarkable event in modern Iranian history – the landing of Ayatollah Khomeini at Tehran airport on his return from exile in February 1979 – has failed to pacify and transition from revolution to state. Since then, the country has changed, its behavior upended. The problem with this model is that it creates illusions within itself that lead to disasters for itself and others, and our region is paying the price for this destructive ideology. – Jerusalem Post 

​Erwin van Veen and Hamidreza Azizi write: The combination of U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 and Iran playing for time in 2021-2022 at the cost of the socio-economic prospects of its own population is set to become a textbook example of how to undo two decades worth of negotiations and sanctions. It will produce the suboptimal outcomes of permanent regional tensions, a latently nuclear-capable Iran, and continued U.S. involvement in the region. There are no quick fixes to this emergent new reality. – The National Interest
Seth J, Frantzman writes:  The attacks used rockets and are apparently carried out by pro-Iran militias. One of these militias has taken a name linked to Yazidis, the minority once targeted by ISIS and which is now targeted by Turkey. However, it is assumed the militia is actually a stand-in for pro-Iranian militias such as Kataib Hezbollah. Iranian-backed militias also target US forces in the Kurdistan region. This means Turkey’s operations have wider regional implications. Turkey’s leader is meeting with Iran and Russia this week and Turkey wants to launch a new operation in Syria. Turkey claims its new operation in Syria will also target “PKK terrorists.” – Jerusalem Post
WHY BENNETT FAILED AS ISRAELI P.M.
Will new nuclear deal render Israel’s capabilities hollow?
Jacob Nagel and Mark Dubowitz — Israel Hayom
Returning to reality after the euphoria that existed during US President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia, the belligerent announcements by senior Iranian officials and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, and the convening of the Russia-Turkey-Iran conference in Tehran, require a sober assessment of the situation and the construction of a plan to preserve and increase deterrence vis-à-vis Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as the continued communication with the USA to prevent any return to the dreadful nuclear agreement from 2015.
Read more
NEW IDF OPERATIONAL DOCTRINES
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