TALIBAN IS A BAD DEAL, SAUDI'S DON'T RANGE FAR FROM WASHINGTON & MENA REGION GETS WORLD BANK HELP3/23/2019  Trump’s Bad Deal with the Taliban Thomas Joscelyn, Bill Roggio — Politico Last week, Afghanistan’s national security adviser, Hamdullah Mohib, launched into a broadside against Zalmay Khalilzad, the chief American diplomat responsible for negotiating with the Taliban. Addressing reporters in Washington, Mohib insinuated that Khalilzad is seeking to install himself as the “viceroy” of a new “caretaker government.” The State Department quickly issued a sharp rebuke, saying that any condemnation of Khalilzad was really a critique of its leader, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo... Read more Saudi Arabia may be courting Asian partners, but it will always need the US
Varsha Koduvayur — CNN Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently wrapped up a week of high-profile visits to Asia, touring Pakistan, India and China in a bid to court new allies. The Saudis clearly mean to signal to the United States and the West that they have options, as the kingdom endures a tarnished reputation over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. But anticipation of a full-blown Saudi pivot to Asia — and a turning away from the United States — is misguided... Read more THE GOLAN, HEZBOLLAH-GERMAN NUCLEAR THREAT GROWS WHILE CHINA SEEKS TO ENVELOP ISRAELI PORTS3/22/2019
Trump Seizes the High Ground in the Golan
Editorial of The New York Sun | March 22, 2019 https://www.nysun.com/editorials/trump-seizes-the-high-ground-in-the-golan/90618/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/construction-of-new-iranian-nuclear-plants-going-well-atomic-chief-says/
https://freebeacon.com/national-security/congress-unloads-on-pro-iran-deal-forces-in-trump-administration/ https://www.apnews.com/c88a5fbdc70440bebb4cf39efac4bae2 https://www.timesofisrael.com/blue-and-white-regains-edge-over-likud-in-polls-but-right-wing-bloc-still-leads/ https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Benny-Gantz-to-deliver-keynote-speech-at-AIPAC-583185
What Rouhani’s visit to Iraq tells us about Iran’s Syria policy
The Iranian president’s recent visit to Iraq and a possible first trip to Syria since his taking office in 2013 indicate a growing role for the Rouhani administration on regional files.
Rouhani’s Iraq visit raises important questions for Israel
Does Israel see Rouhani's visit to Iraq as strengthening his hand in Iran? One answer could be that while Rouhani was in Baghdad, hard-liner Ebrahim Raisi was elected deputy chief of the Assembly of Experts.
How Pakistan navigates the Saudi Arabia–Iran rivalry
Karen E. Young | United States Institute of Peace Karen Young discusses Pakistan's relations with the Gulf states and the implications for regional security with Ankit Panda, senior editor of The Diplomat, and Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, moderated by Amb. Richard Olson, former ambassador to Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates.
Saudi-Iran conflict threatens to flare in Pakistan
Recent Saudi investments in a Pakistani port near the border with Iran are likely to irk Tehran, but Islamabad’s strategic ties to both Tehran and Riyadh make it a prime contender to ease the tensions.  The Caravan: Toward a Middle East Strategy via The CaravanIssue 1921 of The Caravan is now available online. The journal is a periodic symposium on the contemporary dilemmas of the Greater Middle East. The Collapsing Strategic Context by Charles Hill via The CaravanIn designing an optimal American strategy toward the Middle East, two factors stand out. One is that now, as most always in the past, the climate of opinion is both “this is the last chance for peace” and “this is a time when nothing can be done”. The second is that whatever happens in the region at this point in the 21st century will affect and be affected by negative and dangerous new trends in the other power centers of the world: China, Russia, the U.S., and even the European Union. Why America Can't Quit The Middle East by Hal Brands via The CaravanOne of the most persistent myths about U.S. foreign policy is the idea that America desires—due to greed, messianic ideological impulses, or simple imperial presumptions—to dominate the Middle East. In reality, American policy has long been torn by two conflicting imperatives: The need to protect enduring U.S. interests, on the one hand, and the desire to stay clear of the region’s unending headaches, on the other. No Exit: The U.S. Predicament in the Middle East by Henri J. Barkey via The Caravan “L'enfer est pavé de bonnes intentions” (the road to hell is paved with good intentions) goes a French expression. Years of American involvement in the Middle East to fashion a region that is stable, peaceful, more prosperous and more respectful of human rights has proven, so far at least, a failure. As a result, U.S. decision makers, thinkers and certainly the public at large are increasingly expressing their exasperation with that region. Wars, Not Brexit, Destroyed Britain's Global Power
with Niall Ferguson via The National Interest The lesson to learn from the British Empire is unambiguous: unless the United States is attacked, Washington should avoid direct involvement in continental wars.
The US Does Not Lose Much by Withdrawing from Afghanistan By Emil Avdaliani
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In December 2018, the Trump administration announced that its military will start withdrawing roughly 7,000 troops from Afghanistan in the coming months. Though the decision seems an abrupt shift in the US’s 17-year-old war in Afghanistan, it fits into the American grand strategy of keeping Eurasia divided. Continue to full article ->
Barbara A. Leaf and Bilal Wahab write: In addition to building Iraq’s capacity to curb the Islamic State’s resurgence, the U.S. defense relationship anchors a wide array of international actors to the larger effort of reintegrating the country into the regional community. Breaking Iraq out of its isolation and helping it regain stability through deepened economic and political relations with Jordan, Egypt, and the Gulf would give Baghdad the means to regain full sovereignty over its affairs and resist Iranian interference. While many of the Iraqi characters in the 2011 political drama that ended the U.S. military presence remain in place, Washington has a wholly different cast of policymakers set to repeat—or, hopefully, avoid—that mistake. – Washington Institute
Don't blame Afghanistan for blowing whistle on Zalmay Khalilzad
(Washington Examiner) The problem is that Khalilzad may also have a personal agenda when it comes to Afghanistan.
Peace in Afghanistan: The Tumultuous Road Ahead
By Archana Atmakuri & Roshni Kapur, the interpreter: “Afghanistan is probably the first country where a democratically elected government is not a party to the peace agreement. Its absence in a process to determine the future of its nation has raised questions over its legitimacy and power." THE ISLAMIC STATE HITS KABUL; CHINA VETO'S PAKISTANI TERROR SQUAD; HOW THE CITADEL IS FAILING3/15/2019 
Algerian president refuses protesters' demands he step down Algeria’s longtime President Abdelaziz Bouteflika said in a letter published on Monday that he will not step down despite mass protests demanding his resignation. Instead the ailing 82-year-old stressed the need to hold a national conference that would pave the way for a new constitution and a new president. Algeria’s newly appointed Prime Minister Noureddine Bedoui has started talks to form a new government, which is expected to include technocrats with no political affiliation. Meanwhile, Algerian Deputy Prime Minister Ramtane Lamamra and Foreign Minister Abdelkader Messahel arrived in Russia today for a visit. Russia is an important strategic and trade partner for the north African country. Read More Salim Abdullah el-Haj writes: In the past several weeks, peaceful mass protests have spread through the streets of Algeria in response to the announcement that President Abdelaziz Bouteflika would run for a new term in the upcoming presidential elections. In an attempt to calm the Algerian street, Bouteflika was forced to make a statement last Monday declaring his intention to abandon his bid for a fifth term. […]Nevertheless, the scenes of protest continue in a manner reminiscent of the Arab Spring, when young people across a number of Arab countries also took to the streets to demand new economic and social prospects. – Washington Institute Amr Salah writes: Thus, even excluding any discussion of another Arab Spring, what is happening now in both Sudan and Algeria—which may spread to other countries—should be taken as a chance to draw attention to the possibility of new wave of political unrest in a volatile region. Considering the ongoing regional crises, which range from terrorism to civil conflicts, proxy wars, a stagnant Palestinian-Israeli peace process, and the Gulf crisis, it is plausible that any additional source of tension could exacerbate these extant issues and spark a more overt political unrest. – Washington Institute New Algerian prime minister begins Cabinet formation talks Algeria’s newly appointed Prime Minister Noureddine Bedoui has started talks to form a new government, state media reported Sunday. Algiers has vowed that the new Cabinet will include technocrats with no political affiliation and “reflect the demographics of the Algerian society.” The new government is a bid to defuse public anger and curb more than three weeks of mass protests against longtime President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. However, 13 Algerian unions announced today that they will not support Bedoui's efforts after tens of thousands of Algerians on Friday staged the biggest mass protest since the unrest began. Read More aljazeera.com New government in Algeria expected next week Algeria's new Prime Minister Noureddine Bedoui said Thursday that Algiers will form a new government early next week. The new government is a bid to defuse tensions after demonstrators rejected President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s decision to postpone next month's elections. “This government will have a short period, and its role is to be the support for the national conference and what Algerians agree upon,” Bedoui said, adding that the new Cabinet will include technocrats and young people representing the protest movement. Bouteflika’s office has agreed to draft a new constitution after protesters forced the ailing 82-year-old to drop his bid for a fifth term. Read More
Algeria: President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, 82, said Monday he would not seek a fifth presidential term, but demonstrators continued to gather this week, some skeptical of the plan to cancel the presidential election in April. Why Algerian protesters aren't satisfied with Bouteflika's latest 'concession' After protesters rejected President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s offer to step down after one year should he be re-elected, his latest announcement that he will extend his fourth term is being met with more anger. Algeria postpones elections as president drops bid for fifth term Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced Monday that he would drop his bid for a fifth term in office following weeks of mass protests against his 20-year rule. “My health and my age only permit me to fulfill my last duty toward the Algerian people — [that] is to work on laying the foundations of a new republic,” the ailing 82-year-old president said in a letter. However, he also said he would extend his current term while postponing the elections, which had been planned for April. A new constitution will also be put to a national referendum. Bouteflika said he would conduct a government reshuffle and assigned Interior Minister Noureddine Bedoui to form the new Cabinet after Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia resigned. Read More Next Bloodbath Could Erupt At Algeria By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | March 13, 2019 https://www.nysun.com/foreign/next-bloodbath-could-erupt-at-algeria/90608/ Thousands of Algerians poured into the streets Tuesday, and Americans should watch carefully as Arab Spring 2.0 threatens to wreak havoc on North Africa and beyond. The uprising first erupted three weeks ago, after President Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced his intention to run for re-election on April 18. The 82-year-old has been in power for 20 years, but for a decade Algerians have hardly heard his voice or seen his picture. Continue Reading Veteran diplomat to chair conference on Algeria’s political future Algeria on Tuesday tasked veteran diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi with chairing a conference on the country’s political future amid mass protests against President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Brahimi will chair a conference with representatives from the protest movement and independence-era war veterans to draft a new constitution and set a date for elections. Bouteflika announced this week that he would not run for a fifth term but postponed next month's poll. Protesters continued to demand his resignation on Tuesday. Read More Moscow monitors situation in Algeria as protests continue Russia is watching widespread Algerian protests with caution, wanting to preserve its assets in the country, as well as its strategic relationship. The newly-elected President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has pardoned some 700 political prisoners who were jailed by his predecessor Joseph Kabila.
• Algeria’s new prime minister has vowed to form an inclusive and technocratic government which involves young Algerians.  Learning Painful Lessons From Afghanistan By Gunhild Hoogensen Gjørv, War Room: “When the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) finally closed shop in Afghanistan in 2014, many participating nations professed a weariness with complex, civil-military, out-of-area operations. These operations demanded close, often awkward, relationships of cooperation, co-existence, and confrontation between different civil and military actors." Toward 'Fort Trump': US Makes Poland a 'Serious Robust Offer' // Katie Bo WilliamsU.S. Defense Undersecretary for Policy John Rood met Wednesday in Warsaw with Polish defense officials to negotiate a permanent presence of U.S. forces in the former Soviet satellite, a project long sought by Poland that it has pitched to the U.S. as “Fort Trump.” Read full article » The U.S. And the Need for a New Block in South Asia By Anil Sigdel, RealClearDefense: “Ideally, for the U.S., a united block in South Asia under India's leadership would mean to either help control Chinese inroads into the region or provide some support to promote and uphold the liberal architecture. However, such thinking overlooked at least two important factors, if not more." Options for Peace in the Continuing War in Afghanistan By Suzanne Schroeder, Divergent Options: “The goal of a defeated Taliban has proven to be outside of the realm of realistic expectations, and pursing this end does not advance American standing." Can the Taliban Movement Become a Meaningful Diplomatic Actor? By Farkhondeh Akbari, the interpreter: “The Taliban are not necessarily looking for a win-win outcome. They can easily break away from a peace agreement and continue fighting if their demands are not met." Gerasimov Unveils Russia’s ‘Strategy of Limited Actions’ By Roger McDermott, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “It is highly likely that Gerasimov’s speech, as well as others during the conference, will play a role in the formulation of Russia’s the new military doctrine ordered by President Vladimir Putin in December 2018." Technology, Uncertainty, and Future War By Chris Tuck, Defence-In-Depth: “It would seem reasonable to assert that the role played by technology on future battlefields will depend to an important extent on the sorts of wars in which that technology will be used."
 Who Is Sisi of Egypt? A Reformer.by Cynthia Farahat Middle East Quarterly Spring 2019 https://www.meforum.org/57907/egypt-sisi-reformer Iraqi Kurds urge their Syrian cousins to make peace with Damascus
Al-Monitor speaks with Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani about Iraqi Kurdistan's relationship with Baghdad, trade with Iran and why Turkey must negotiate with the PKK.  Why Has Palestinian Nationalism Failed? By Dr. Alex Joffe, March 7, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Warsaw Conference demonstrated that the popularity of the Palestinian cause continues to decline, suggesting that Palestinian nationalism has failed. Historically, the positive elements of Palestinian nationalism have been offset by its negative features, including reliance on antisemitism and negation of the Other. Pressures from above, in the form of Arab and Islamic identities, and tribal and clan pressures from below have impeded the development of a stable national identity. At the same time, strong state security institutions protect elites while weak social welfare institutions create dependence, mostly on foreign aid. While continued development of the Palestinian economy is encouraging, the contradictions of Palestinian nationalism are not easily resolved. Continue to full article -> Mkhaimar Abusada writes: Ultimately, it is safe to say that Hamas and Fatah have reached the point of no return; there is no chance of ending the political division and restoring Palestinian unity in the foreseeable future. The Hamas-Fatah political competition, divergent political ideologies, and their special interests have poisoned any chance of reconciliation between them. Moreover, the PA is not ready to discuss power sharing with Hamas in Gaza. – Washington Institute
Testimony: Taking the lead back in Yemen
Katherine Zimmerman | House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East, North Africa, and International Terrorism America has vital national security interests in Yemen and must retake a leadership role to be more secure and shape the actions of its allies.
Can Saudi Arabia afford a stimulus?
Karen Young | Al-Monitor In addition to commitments of direct financial support to central banks, aid, and foreign direct investment by state companies to a number of regional governments made over the past year, Saudi Arabia also plans a massive stimulus package in infrastructure spending to prompt domestic growth. PAKISTAN'S PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY; MIG 21 VS. F16 OVER KASHMIR & MYRA McDONALD ON AFGHANISTAN3/6/2019
Balakot, Deterrence, and Risk: How This India-Pakistan Crisis Will Shape the Next by Arzan Tarapore
Read This If You Want to Sound Smart on National Security Q&A with Ryan Evans by Tobin Harshaw (Bloomberg)
India’s China Problem in Pakistan
Shashi Tharoor blames Chinese diplomacy for enabling terrorist leaders to operate freely.
Pakistan has ‘full-fledged plan’ to take out terrorist groups, while denying their existence
For years, Pakistani officials and military commanders have denied the existence of terrorist groups operating on Pakistani soil, and concurrently claimed that they are taking action against the same non-existent terrorist groups.
Myra MacDonald writes: It was in the fractious environment of Afghanistan’s civil war that an extreme form of Islamism – including the takfiri ideology that thrives on declaring other Muslims apostates – took root. […] Both older and newer arrivals took sides in the Afghan factionalism, ignoring advice from Azzam that they should refuse to be sucked into Afghan in-fighting. Among these was bin Laden. – War on the Rocks
Russian special forces train Palestinian militia in Syria
Russian special forces are reported to have held a training event for the pro-regime Palestinian militia, Liwa al Quds. Pakistan PM’s political party welcomes Harakat-ul-Mujahideen emir into ranks If Pakistan was sincere about tackling terrorists groups and their leaders and operatives, Khalil would be at the top of the target list. Instead, he has been welcomed with open arms into Imran Khan's political party. Pakistan claims to ‘crack down’ on Jamaat-ud-Dawa. Again. If the past is any guide, the efforts are merely eyewash to placate Western governments in the wake of major terror attacks emanating from Pakistani soil. Pakistan has claimed it has shut down JuD offices and detained its top leaders in the past, only to allow the offices to reopen and the leaders free months later.
A South Asian Threat in America by Sam Westrop
Morning Consult https://www.meforum.org/57954/south-asian-threat-america
India and Pakistan are a brewing nuclear nightmare
(Bloomberg) India’s election and Pakistan’s economic crisis are coming at a bad time.
China has praised Pakistan’s “restraint” and willingness to talk with India to ease tensions between the two countries after a deadly bombing in Indian-controlled Kashmir last month. – Reuters
Three senior Western diplomats said international reaction leaned toward India, which has long been seen as a victim of Pakistani-sponsored militancy. There was a lack of condemnation over the strikes into Pakistan. India is seen as an increasingly crucial ally to the U.S. and the West because of its economic growth and as a strategic hedge against an assertive China. […]The government in Islamabad has also been recalibrating its political alliances, turning away from the West and leaning toward countries such as China, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. – Bloomberg Ahmed Rashid writes: Pakistan should prosecute the perpetrators of the Kashmir attack. And once India forms a new government, the United States, Britain and the United Nations, whose response to the current crisis has been slow, must encourage India to restart dialogue with Mr. Khan. Simultaneously, Islamabad must start dismantling the terrorist groups operating from its soil. Mr. Modi must stop his relentless use of lethal force in Kashmir and end his stubborn refusal to hold talks. A return to back-channel diplomacy is necessary, and the Musharraf-Manmohan peace process needs to be dusted off and looked at again. – New York Times
NORMAN A. BAILEY Implications of the election in IsraelIncumbent PM Netanyahu's legal problems and the rise of a new centrist party are setting the stage for a new national unity government
Is Israel headed for national unity government?
According to current polls, neither Likud nor Blue and White alliance would be able to assemble a governing coalition after elections, raising a number of even more unlikely scenarios for doing so.
Bret Stephens writes: When the final chapter on Benjamin Netanyahu’s political life is written — and it may be a long time from now — he is likely to go down as the Richard Nixon of Israel: politically cunning, strategically canny, toxically flawed. The flaws came further to light on Thursday when Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit announced that he would indict the prime minister on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. – New York Times
Netanyahu launches election campaign
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu kicked off the election campaign for his right-wing Likud Party on Monday with a speech lashing out at his rivals. Netanyahu painted his opponents Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid from the centrist Blue and White party as “dangerous and irresponsible leftists.” He accused them of trying to hide their true political leanings, comparing them unfavorably to former Prime Ministers Ehud Barak and Yitzhak Rabin, who signed the Oslo Accord with Palestinian leadership. The Blue and White party is expected to present its political agenda today. Netanyahu spoke alone, refraining from presenting fellow Likud Knesset members on stage as he has in previous campaigns. He also made no reference to the pending corruption-related indictments against him. Read More
Qatar defies Saudi Arabia with deal for Russian missile defense system
Qatar announced Monday that it is still reviewing an offer to purchase Russia’s S-400 missile defense system, slamming rival Saudi Arabia’s opposition to the deal. Talks on the deal began when Doha and Moscow signed a military agreement in 2017, but the deal has stalled amid the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar. “We believe that for Saudi Arabia or any other country, it is not their business,” Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said at a press conference alongside his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. The French daily Le Monde reported last year that Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud has threatened military action against Qatar should it proceed with the S-400 purchase. Read More
US deploys THAAD missile-defense system in Israel
The United States confirmed Monday that it has temporarily deployed its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system in Israel for a joint military exercise. THAAD is the most advanced US air and missile defense system, and this is its first deployment in Israel. It is currently deployed at the Nevatim air base but will soon be transported to an undisclosed location in southern Israel. Read More
Disqualification battle camouflages real danger to Israel: Benjamin Netanyahu
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is exploiting a fraudulent symmetry between Kahane’s racial doctrine and a minority’s struggle for equal rights to incite against Israel’s Arab citizens.  Egyptian-Iranian relations: Where are they now? It's often hard to tell whether Cairo and Tehran will embrace or break up. Egypt’s unemployment rate declines to pre-revolution levels amid economic recovery Although the Egyptian government is initiating programs to encourage work in the private sector, some graduates still see unemployment as a threat to young people. Will latest interest rate hike break Tunisia’s back?
Following Tunisia's third interest rate hike in 12 months, economic and political experts sound the alarm on shrinking purchasing power while the nation's largest trade union calls for protests. 
The Algerian lawyers’ union starts a four-day strike to protest President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s bid for a fifth term. Algeria’s president vows to step down after one year if re-elected Algeria's President Abdelaziz Bouteflika on Sunday vowed to step down after one year should he win re-election in April. The promise comes amid mass protests against his bid for a fifth term throughout the country. The ailing 81-year-old president, who last addressed his country more than six years ago, made the announcement via a letter read on state media as he formally submitted his candidacy. At least 183 people were injured during demonstrations on Friday when police tried to stop protesters from advancing toward the presidential palace. Read More Will Algerian protesters accept ailing president’s offer for reforms? Against a background of growing dissent, Algeria’s ailing president has confirmed his intention to run in April’s elections; however, whether a commitment to reform and a fresh vote within the year, delivered by proxy, will be enough to quell protest remains uncertain. Eight years on, how is Morocco recovering from Arab Spring? The popular protests demanding political reforms eight years ago in Morocco have turned into social movements. Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, 82, is facing the country’s strongest protest movement in years, with demonstrators accusing his government of widespread corruption and urging him to step down. The protests started after the president announced he would run for a fifth term in office. In response, he pledged to undertake reforms and step down after the next elections. But it does not appear to have quelled the angry demonstrations, as some protesters have accused him of simply maneuvering to buy time. The plan “will find my successor in a manner incontrovertibly peaceful, free and transparent,” he said. He also pledged to organize a national referendum for “a new constitution which will mark the birth of a new republic and a new Algerian political system.” Bouteflika has made very few public appearances since suffering a stroke in 2013, fueling speculation the Algerian government is being run by a cadre of his senior advisors and generals behind the scenes. Former Algerian minister resigns from parliament amid electoral protests A former minister from Algeria’s ruling National Liberation Front resigned on Monday from parliament and as member of the NLF amid ongoing demonstrations against President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s re-election bid for a fifth term. Sidi Ferroukhi, who previously served as minister of agriculture, said he made his decision in solidarity with the protesters, though he did not single out Bouteflika by name. Nonetheless, he said Algeria is going through exceptional changes that require leaders to listen to people’s demands. The ailing 81-year-old Bouteflika has not addressed the country in six years and has vowed to step down after one year should he win re-election in April. Read More Egypt holds talks on Libya elections with Algeria and Tunisia The foreign ministers of Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria met in Cairo on Tuesday to discuss Libya and the need to hold elections to stabilize the divided country. The ministers also addressed efforts to unify Libya’s state institutions, including the army. The meeting comes after Libya’s internationally recognized government in Tripoli and the rival government close to Khalifa Hifter in the east agreed last week to hold elections. Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj of the UN-backed government said on Tuesday elections would be held by the end of the year. Separately, the Egyptian army conducted military exercises near the Libyan border. Libya’s volatile security situation has allowed arms and militants to pour into Egypt. Read More Tunisia schedules third elections since 2011 revolution Tunisia’s electoral commission announced Wednesday that it will hold parliamentary elections in October and the first round of presidential elections in November. The elections will be the country’s third since the 2011 Jasmine revolution. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke away from the ruling Nidaa Tounes party in January, forming Tahya Tounes after months of feuding with Nidaa Tunes leader Hafedh Caid Essebsi, who is President Beji Caid Essebsi’s son. Read More
Threat Update and recommended reads: Tens of thousands of Algerians are demanding political change in a direct challenge to the regime. Algeria’s Bouteflika warns of 'chaos' as protests against his rule intensify
Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika warned protesters rallying against his run for a fifth consecutive term of “chaos” as thousands took to the streets today. The ailing 82-year-old president sent the letter, carried by state news agencies, from Switzerland where he has been convalescing since last month. The letter warned of infiltration by any “treacherous internal or foreign group” that “may lead to sedition and chaos and resulting crises and woes.” Algerian lawyers and doctors joined the protests Thursday, demanding to know who signed off on Bouteflika’s medical certificate needed to run again. The president has vowed to step down after a year should he win re-election. Read More
In his November 14, 2018 column in the Al-Riyadh daily, Saudi writer ‘Abdallah Bin Bakhit wrote sarcastically that whoever wants to understand “the Jewish conspiracy against the world” must acknowledge the reasons for the Jews’ success in the West and the reasons for the Arabs’ backwardness there. – Middle East Media Research Institute
Elisa Catalano Ewers and Nicholas Heras write: H.J. Res. 37 is a rebuke of the Saudi- and Emirati-led coalition’s prosecution of the war – which has caused the world’s worst current humanitarian crisis – and the U.S. role in supporting the coalition’s military activities. […]Beyond the serious undertaking of addressing the U.S. role in the Yemen conflict, the resolution has other strategic potential if Congress pursues it constructively. Review of this legislation and continued oversight work may succeed in sparking a sustainable debate on the future role of the United States in Yemen’s conflict, the U.S.-Saudi and U.S.-U.A.E. relationships, and more broadly, on the proper role of the United States in the Middle East and its conflicts. – Center for a New American Security
 Libya’s internationally recognized prime minister, Serraj al-Fayez, and the military commander of its eastern half, Khalifa Haftar, have met and agreed that national elections are necessary, the United Nations said on Thursday. – Reuters
Anthony H. Cordesman writes: The current focus of America’s short attention span – on withdrawing from Syria and making exaggerated claims about the defeat of ISIS – will only make things worse. The same is true of the U.S. failures to try to shape some coherent approach to a wide range of other issues in the region. […]What the U.S. cannot afford to do, however, is to keep on focusing on short-term issues, lurching from one set of poorly defined goals to another, and spending more on defense without far better-defined plans and strategic objectives. – Center for Strategic and International Studies  Theodore Karasik and Giorgio Cafiero write: In the near future, Arab Gulf monarchies are likely to apply pressure on Tunisia to influence its relations with Syria. The sheikdoms of the Arabian Peninsula — with the notable exception(s) of Qatar and possibly Saudi Arabia — will aim to facilitate a smooth reincorporation of the Assad regime into the regional order, yielding results in line with their interests and concerns. […]Nevertheless, the centrifugal forces that are pulling Syria back into the Arab fold seem set to continue going forward, and Tunisia will likely play an important role in the process. – Middle East Institute
 Taliban suicide team attacks Afghan base in Helmand While Afghan and Coalition officials claim the assault was "repelled," the Taliban clearly entered the base and inflicted casualties on Afghan forces. US offers $1 million reward for information on Hamza bin Laden The State Department announced today that it is offering a $1 million reward for information on Hamza bin Laden's whereabouts. Hamza is the genetic and ideological heir of al Qaeda's founder and he has been groomed for a leadership position within the organization. Peshmerga’s return to Kirkuk raises Arab and Turkmen fears The good relationship between Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi and the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Massoud Barzani, has led to an agreement between Baghdad and Erbil that will see the return of peshmerga forces to Kirkuk. Michael Rubin writes: Kurdish officials like to distract from accountability for their own management failings by blaming Baghdad, unfriendly neighbors, a lack of recognition for their ills, or any other bogeymen real or imagined. Perhaps it is time for Kurdish residents, diplomats, and potential investors to question just how a region like Somaliland with a similar history, equivalent population, and the same geopolitical problems has emerged from war and destruction not only as a democracy, but also with a far healthier and more reform-minded economy than Iraqi Kurdistan’s. – 1001 Iraqi Thoughts Iranian Kurds: Between the Hammer and the Anvil By Ofra Bengio, March 5, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The new strategy toward Iran taken by Donald Trump, which includes withdrawing from the nuclear deal, imposing sanctions on Tehran, and isolating it internationally, created expectations among the Kurdish national movement in Iran that its common interests with the US would help it gain American support in fighting the regime in Tehran. To the movement’s dismay, this commonality of interests has not been translated into practical terms – unlike US policy toward the Kurds in Iraq and Syria. Compared to the other Kurdish populations, the Iranian Kurds have remained isolated and silenced. Continue to full article -> As democracy disappears, Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani’s legacy is in tatters
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner 
The Saudi-Israeli Coalition?
By Arie Egozi, Tuesday, February 26, 2019 9:52 PM An Israeli source who spoke with Breaking Defense of condition of anonymity said that attitudes in Saudi Arabia are changing, “not only in domestic issues, but also their understanding that Israel is not an enemy…”
Haroro J. Ingram and Craig Whiteside write: The Islamic State movement has demonstrated an equanimity — even a desire — to be misunderstood and underestimated by its foes. It is hard to believe that a group with as high a profile as the Islamic State can be underestimated. Yet that is its history. – War on the Rocks
US-Taliban Dialogue Is an Exercise in Naiveté
By Jagdish N. Singh, February 24, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The ongoing US-Taliban dialogue is devoid of logic. The mission of the US troops in Afghanistan is still far from complete. Washington must take the Taliban’s jihadist ideology and past record into account. They are not to be trusted. Continue to full article -> |
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ISRAELI NEWS NETWORK
THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM
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