The Mysterious Explosions at Iran's Nuclear Facilities
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, July 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Three incidents, including two explosions at nuclear facilities, have shaken Iran in recent days. Were they connected? Were they caused by accidents or were they carried out by a foreign power? If the latter, were they executed via cyberattack? And what will be their domestic and international implications?
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The Sovereignty Debate Has Changed Israeli Discourse
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, July 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The moment the issue of extending Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and parts of the West Bank emerged, it took on a dynamic of its own. Not only did the opposing sides’ positions grow sharper and more polarized, but the way claims are being made—accompanied by fear-mongering and threats—has changed the dynamic of the internal Israeli debate on the Israeli-Palestinian problem.
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Seth J. Frantzman writes: The US says it wants to confront Russia in Libya. Everyone seems to want a piece of the action. None of the countries involved seem to have any interest in the Libyan people or stabilizing the country after a decade of civil war. It looks more like a test bed for Turkish weaponry and Chinese drones, as well as for Russian and Turkish air-defense systems. – Jerusalem Post

The emerging narrative of China’s rise in the Middle East as a counter to American influence rests on the skewed portrayal of a few large investments. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Karen Young debunks the narrative and points out that Beijing gets far more credit than it is due for investments in the region. China’s agenda in the Middle East is about China, not about sharing a development ideology or improving access to capital. For all the hype around Beijing’s supposed advantage of state capitalism, China has not yet proved to be a good investor or a desirable development partner for the Middle East — and certainly not a great power. Read here.

According to a recent joint statement by Pakistan and Afghanistan, “The soil of either country should not be used against the other.” If Pakistani leaders are serious, Islamabad should no longer allow its soil to be used as a safe haven for Taliban leaders, argues Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. It is time for Pakistan’s civilian government and the military to recognize that the reason no one in Afghanistan takes its diplomatic promises seriously is that the road map is clear on how to fulfill them, but Pakistan so far refuses to even start moving in the right direction. Continue here.

Countering China as an economic power and alternate political and development model is a centerpiece of US national security policy. Countering China in the Middle East, however, has proved challenging due to inconsistencies in US policy and with the growing perception of China's attractiveness to the region, notes Karen Young in Al-Monitor article. Framing the discussion of China’s role in the Middle East as a zero-sum game of choosing either US or Chinese patronage has only increased Beijing’s clout in the region. But there is no stark choice for the Gulf states to decouple from Washington or Beijing, only opportunities lost. Learn more here

Anna Borshchevskaya on Russia's Military Activity in the Eastern Mediterranean
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Radio
July 5, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61185/borshchevskaya-on-russias-military-activity-in-liby

Qatar's Anti-Saudi Seeds of the Islamist Quartet
By Irina Tsukerman, July 2, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Islamist Quartet consists of Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan, and Malaysia. The seeds of its agenda were planted by Qatari Emir Hamad’s and Libyan dictator Muammar Qhaddafi’s plot to take down the Saudi royal family and divide the Kingdom. Qatari lobbyists have since managed to bury the long history and strategic depth of these relationships by reshaping the narrative with a focus on the 2017 Gulf Crisis.
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Can Palestinian Despair Lead to End of Conflict? by Nave Dromi
JNS
June 25, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61175/can-palestinian-despair-lead-to-end-of-conflic

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-putin-rouhani-to-hold-syria-talks-kremlin-156155

· https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/06/19/the-caesar-act-and-a-pathway-out-of-conflict-in-syria/
·       https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/lebanon-ambassador-hezbollah-shea-media-ban/2020/06/28/15adec2a-b89f-11ea-9a1d-d3db1cbe07ce_story.html
·         https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-iraq-s-leadership-is-finally-setting-limits-on-iranian-intervention-1.8962450

How Putin Is Winning in Syria by Leni Friedman Valenta and Jiri Valenta
Middle East Quarterly
Summer 2020 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/61032/how-putin-is-winning-in-syria

Trump's Syria Policy Is Working by Jonathan Spyer
Foreign Policy
July 1, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61178/trump-syria-policy-is-working

Why Is Russia Undermining International Efforts in Syria?
 // Emma Beals
​Western negotiators must give no ground in Moscow's attempts to evade its responsibilities.

How Palestinians Terrorize Their Own People  by Bassam Tawil  •

The Mullah's Spies and Assassinations in the West  by Majid Rafizadeh 

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/06/pakistan-a-safe-haven-for-terror-groups-u-s-state-department.php

How Libya’s war is poisoning Tunisia’s politics
 The war in neighboring Libya has further polarized Tunisia's political landscape and imperiled the country’s fragile governing coalition.

Pakistan's insincere war on terror
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

New US sanctions against the Syrian government aim to “starve” the country and its neighbor Lebanon, the head of the Lebanese terror organization Hezbollah said Tuesday. – Times of Israel ​

Nasrallah: Hezbollah will keep its weapons, Lebanon will not starve

JPost’s Seth J. Frantman: Inside the pro-Iran and 'Islamic' worldview of Turkey's foreign minister

India-China border dispute: A conflict years in the making

On June 11, 2020, OGN TV (Syria) uploaded to its YouTube channel an interview with Chechen military contractor Ali Shishani, the leader of Malhama Tactical, a group based in Syria that trains Syrian rebels. […]Shishani said that the Jihad in Syria has tremendous potential and that the factions should unite into a single military-political force with a unified army and competent leadership. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Differences between the two main parties in Israel’s unity government could end up derailing the plan to annex parts of the West Bank, with associates of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fearing the internal disagreements will cause the United States to back out of supporting the move, a report said Wednesday. – Times of Israel

Barah Mikail writes: Iraq today is marked by a hybrid form of politics wherein nationalism and sectarianism coexist. When Iraqis flood the streets in protest, they put nationalism over sectarian feelings; however, when they go to the polls, they tend to favor candidates that reflect their ethnoreligious affinities. Whereas fears of a looming sectarian-based territorial fragmentation of the country might be justified, the hybridity of Iraq’s identity politics may be the best guarantee for preserving Iraq’s territorial integrity, and for limiting the damage caused by the mediocrity of the political elite. – Middle East Institute ​

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban organization) has set its conditions for the intra-Afghan talks to begin, saying that it will not accept the Western system of democracy and elections, according to an Urdu-language daily. The intra-Afghan talks are mandated as part of the U.S.-Taliban deal that was signed on February 29, 2020 in Doha. The talks are expected to give the Islamic Emirate a share of power in Kabul. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Why is Sirte everyone’s ‘red line’ in Libya?
 Libya’s coastal city of Sirte, a strategic gateway to major oil facilities, has emerged as a critical point of contention between Turkey and Russia, with France also scrambling to impede Turkey via NATO.

Egypt’s top fatwa authority raises controversy after describing Ottoman control of Constantinople as 'occupation'
 Egypt’s Dar al-Ifta described the Ottoman conquest of Constantinople as an invasion, raising controversy in Turkey and among critics who believe religious authorities should not get involved in politics.

U.S., IRAQ:
U.S.-Iraq Strategic Talks Launched With Increasing National, Regional Support
By John Doe, The National Interest: “The strategic dialogue between Iraq and the United States opened at 9 a.m. Eastern time on June 11 and continued for two hours. The first meeting in the series covered four major topics."

Special report: Inside the proxy battle that keeps an Iraqi city on its knees

WINEP’s Ben Fishman: Shifting tides in Libya require more active U.S. involvement

• Troubled Iran struggles to maintain sway over Iraq militias
  
• Institute for Science and International Security: The alleged nuclear weapons development site near Abadeh, Iran
  
• Institute for Science and International Security: Iran defies the International Atomic Energy Agency: The IAEA’s latest Iran safeguards report
  

• "Russian air defense systems outmatched by Turkish drones in Syria and Libya," Seth Frantzman, FDD's Long War Journal
  
• "Iran’s Islamic 'revolution has no borders,’ says Torkilmaz," Benjamin Weinthal, The Jerusalem Post
  

Iranians desperately need a better Voice of America
​Alireza Nader | Senior Fellow
Saeed Ghasseminejad | Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor

Yaakov Katz writes: This semiannual assessment is of particular importance on three counts. One is the prediction that none of Israel’s enemies – not Iran, Syria, Hezbollah nor Hamas – have any plans to initiate a war against the Jewish state in the coming year. Second is that ultimately, everything is about Iran, which continues to top any Israeli threat assessment due to its nuclear program, its continued support of terrorist proxies and its development and production of long-range ballistic missiles. – Jerusalem Post

Bobby Ghosh writes: Then, it was Haftar who walked away, gambling that he could get better terms at the gates of Tripoli. With the Egyptian cease-fire plan a non-starter, the rebel commander — the besieger turned besieged — might want to achieve a face-saving battlefield victory, or at least to grind down the GNA advance at Sirte, before he agrees to any deal. – Bloomberg

Michael Rubin writes:  The United Nations found that the Taliban continue to profit tremendously from heroin and the illegal narcotics trade, and that they have also moved into methamphetamine production and trafficking. All of it means that continuing the current peace deal empowers terrorists and drug cartels as cancerous to regional security as those in Mexico and Central America. Make no mistake: Wishful thinking now will kill American civilians later. – Washington Examiner

Javid Ahmad writes: For now, it is hard to imagine a way forward for Afghanistan. The running challenge is that the United States remains undecided about what it wants to do with Afghanistan. But whatever the U.S. decides in the coming months, the threat posed by overlapping alliances of the Taliban-allied jihadist groups should not be ignored. – The Hill

Nick Grinstead writes: It now seems clear that Iran is repositioning within Syria, rather than withdrawing, and that this is a result of a combination of factors, including the coronavirus. The repositioning should be viewed as a shift in priorities away from the east of Syria to the southwest, closer to Israel. It is likely that Iran felt that it had achieved its main objective of securing al-Mayadin and Abu Kamal and that paying for troops to stay there and get routinely hit by Israeli air strikes was no longer worth it. Further, the fact that NDF units in southern Raqqa did not receive their salaries for several months indicates that they were not a priority for Iran in the wake of the pandemic and that it was best to cut its losses in that area. – Middle East Institute

Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write: Economic and diplomatic competition between the United States and Iran is ramping up as both sides attempt to control the conditions leading up to the US-Iraq Strategic Dialogue in mid-June. Iran seeks to ensure that Iraq continues to import Iranian energy, a key economic driver for Iran’s sanctions-battered economy. Iraq relies on those imports to bolster its under-funded, often-strained electrical grid. The United States is aiming to reduce Iraqi reliance on Iranian imports by encouraging investments by US and allied companies and leveraging its sanctions waivers. – Institute for the Study of War

James A. Warren writes: The dream of re-establishing that caliphate remains strong in the hearts of the believers, while the fecklessness of the government in Iraq, and its failure to address the grievances of Sunni Muslims, who constitute about 20 percent of its population, only lend credence to predictions that ISIS will rise again in the very heart of the Middle East. – The Daily Beast ​

Christopher Hamill-Stewart writes: Soleimani’s death hurt Iran. It ushered in six months of foreign-policy failure, domestic strife during the coronavirus pandemic and a slow-motion economic collapse within Iran. Without the “shadow commander,” the regime’s grip on its proxies and regional influence appear to be in retreat. It would be premature, however, to count Tehran out completely. – Arab News
​
Kevjn Lim writes: Absent self-sufficiency and geopolitical stability, even a government with robust reserves would do well to diversify its grain supply basket, or at least be able to do so on short notice. In Tehran, however, guns are generally sexier than butter when it comes to making budgetary decisions and crafting foreign policy. This ethos leaves the country vulnerable to big supply shocks, food shortages, and spiraling prices that can produce effects no less momentous than wars. – Washington Institute

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The Syrian regime thought it was finally out of the woods in its almost decade-long civil war. It recaptured southern Syria in 2018 and has pushed up against US forces along the Euphrates. It has launched offensives into Idlib with Russian and Iranian backing. […]But the regime is gutted and weak. It has no finances and is fighting internally with family feuds within the Assad ruling clan. That means it is like a house of cards: very fragile. Russia can’t save the regime from everything. – Jerusalem Post

US general: Taliban not yet met conditions for US withdrawal

Thousands of Pakistanis fight in Afghanistan alongside the Taliban​
Pakistan continues to play its double game by supporting terror groups. Thousands of Pakistanis, including fighters from the Pakistan state-sponsored Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, as well as the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, continue to support the Taliban's jihad against the Afghan government.

Analysis: Taliban again denies presence of foreign fighters in Afghanistan
The Taliban's statement should raise deep concerns with U.S. officials about the group's reliability to be an effective counterterrorism partner against Al Qaeda and other terror groups.

“Better Turks than Latins!” – The Aftermath and the New City

US commander suggests sending military trainers to Tunisia after Russia sends aircraft to Libya
Backed by military contractors, Russia deployed military fighter jets to Al Jufra Airfield in Libya, prompting the US Army to consider sending military training personnel to neighboring Tunisia.

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/05/taliban-reluctant-to-publicly-break-with-al-qaeda-inspector-general-reports.php

Michel Foucault and Iran's Ayatollahs
By Dr. Reza Parchizadeh, May 28, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Islamic Revolution in Iran, which brought Islamists to power for the first time in modern history, pitted the global left—perhaps best personified by Michel Foucault—against the global right. To this day, the global left’s advocacy for Islamism continues to guide the West’s general approach toward the Middle East.
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Oman’s public sector reform risks brain drain
By letting go of thousands of foreign experts, Oman risks losing know-how central to achieve economic diversification.

Seth J. Frantzman writes: According to reports in Al-Ain media in the Gulf, which opposes Turkey’s role in the region, Ghannouchi has been favoring Ankara and seeking to support Turkey’s role in Libya. This appears to contradict his role as speaker, because he is not the head of state. Tunisians don’t want the speaker taking sides in Libya. […]The focus on Tunisia, by both Ankara and Abu Dhabi, would seem to indicate that what comes next is part of a larger regional struggle – and that it may impact Libya as well. – Jerusalem Post ​

South Sudan:  Hundreds Killed in Inter-communal Violence.  Since Saturday, at least 287 people, including a Doctors Without Borders staff member, have been killed in a spat of inter-communal violence, according to authorities. The violence, which is taking place in the Jonglei state, broke out on Saturday between the Murle and Lou Nuer ethnic communities.  Over 300 people are believed to be wounded  In February, a treaty was signed to end the country’s six-year civil war.  
​Al Jazeera BBC  ​

 Libyan government forces further advance against rogue leader 
Libyan pro-Government of National Accord (GNA) forces said on Thursday they have captured a key town south of Tripoli, marking another advance against eastern forces led by military strongman Gen. Khalifa Hifter. The town of al-Asabaa lies on the road leading to the city of Tarhuna, Hifter’s main stronghold. Meanwhile, the GNA launched five airstrikes in Tarhuna, according to a military spokesman. Hifter’s self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) has suffered a series of setbacks in recent weeks, with forces loyal to the government taking control earlier this week of the key al-Watiya air base southwest of Tripoli. This comes as the LNA’s air force chief Saqer al-Jaroushi threatened to attack Turkish interests in Libya since Ankara has significantly helped the UN-backed government resist the LNA's year-long attack on the capital. In turn, Turkish foreign ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy warned that any attack on Turkish assets in Libya “will have very grave consequences.”
Read More  ​

Netanyahu considers fourth elections, but ultra-Orthodox object
 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might be considering going to fourth elections, but his ultra-Orthodox allies won’t hear of that.

​Jerusalem, Jordan, and the Jews by Daniel Pipes
Israel Hayom
June 22, 2020
http://www.danielpipes.org/19600/jerusalem-jordan-and-the-jews

Israel's new government

Did Gantz Break the Blue and White Party
 In this week’s "On Israel" podcast, MK Ofer Shelah gives his thoughts on the recent unity government between Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party and Benny Gantz’s Blue & White Coalition.

Yossi Melman writes:  Netanyahu also remembers how Yitzhak Shamir’s government fell in wake of the first intifada. But today’s Netanyahu is different: more messianic, more anxious, more sure of himself, more eager to go down in history as the one who established “Greater Israel.” If this is really his position, he will also ignore the fact that Israel is in the grips of a major economic crisis and that annexation would mean realizing Yasser Arafat’s dream of one state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. – Haaretz

Amos Yadlin writes: And in any event, even if there were no costs for the annexation process, such a move is blatantly anti-Zionist and will prevent the possibility of future separation from the Palestinians while safeguarding Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure and moral state. – Ynet

Israel's Flight from South Lebanon 20 Years On
By Prof. Efraim Karsh and Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, May 22, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel’s May 2000 rushed evacuation of its security zone in south Lebanon and the desertion of its longstanding local allies there tarnished the Jewish State’s deterrent posture and helped spark a string of large-scale armed confrontations with Hezbollah (2006), the PLO (the so-called “al-Aqsa Intifada”), and Hamas (2008/9, 2012, 2014). The withdrawal transformed south Lebanon into an ineradicable terror entity that can harass northern Israel at will and expedited Hezbollah’s evolvement into a formidable military power armed with 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of reaching anywhere in Israel. It also dented the IDF’s fighting ethos and operational competence, as illustrated by its lukewarm performance during the Second Lebanon War (2006) and Operation Protective Edge (2014).
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Despite trial, Netanyahu's popularity soaring
Despite the opening of his trail, and despite failures in prior elections, the popularity of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu keeps soaring.

Israel and the Great Powers: The View from Beijing by Wang Jin
Middle East Quarterly
Spring 2020 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/60504/israel-and-the-great-powers-view-from-beijing

Putin appoints third special envoy to Syria
Putin's decision to appoint a new special envoy for developing relations with Syria likely has several aims, including to balance military and diplomatic involvement in Russia's Syria policy.

​The Return to the Era of Spheres of Influence in Eurasia
By Emil Avdaliani, May 21, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Geopolitical trends of the last two decades show that pivotal states in Eurasia are working to recreate their zones of influence. In so doing, they are challenging the US, which implies a corresponding challenge to the existing world order. Though Washington will be able to limit some powers’ ambitions, it has few tools with which to hamper the ambitions of Russia, China, and Iran.
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​Iran’s new push to erase its millennia of Jewish history
Alireza Nader

​A Peace Treaty Is Not a License to Extort
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, May 31, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: For years, Egypt and Jordan have exploited their peace treaties with Israel as a tool of extortion to prevent Israel from pursuing its security and political interests.
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​The unlearned ‘nakba’ lesson about compromise
The Palestinians aren’t just reliving the “disaster” of their losing war to prevent Israel’s birth. By refusing to negotiate, they’ve ensured that their losses will continue to grow.
JONATHAN S. TOBIN

It’s not about Assad
Russia’s alleged displeasure with Assad and Iran in Syria has gotten a lot of attention recently in Western and some Arab media. Yet, saying that Moscow is having a change of heart at this very moment, let alone is willing to publicly broadcast this to Damascus, may be a bit premature.
Read blog post

Salafism Meets Populism: The Al-Karama Coalition and the Malleability of Political Salafism in Tunisia
Jasmin Lorch, Hatem Chakroun

Spring 2020 Issue

Gantz introduces Israel's first female ultra-Orthodox minister
Blue and White leader Benny Gantz has tapped legislator Omer Yankelevich as diaspora minister in the new unity government, the first ultra-Orthodox woman to lead a ministry.

​Decentralization push sparks fears of division in Iraqi Kurdistan
Sulaimaniyah’s pursuit of enhanced self-governance has stoked concerns over the Iraqi Kurds’ hard-won unity as economic woes strain their autonomous region.

PKK attacks Turkish military base in Kurdistan Region of Iraq
 The attack comes amid intra-Kurdish tensions in Iraq over the PKK's and Turkey's presence in the country.

Why transatlantic relations are in trouble
Dalibor Rohac | The American Interest

Biden’s Revival of Obama’s Middle East Policies Won’t Bring PeaceJust a rerun of past failures with the added disgrace of renewed American acquiescence to Palestinian terror
By JONATHAN S. TOBIN

The Jordan Valley Annexation Dilemma: A Realistic Approach
By Col (Res.) Dr. Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen, May 13, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The declared intention of the new Israeli government to pave the way for the implementation of sovereignty in certain parts of the West Bank, with the blessing of the Trump administration, is prompting vigorous debate. The dark prophecies by “liberal” Israelis as well as EU officials about the dire consequences that would result from annexation are exaggerated, and they obscure the vital strategic value of the Jordan Valley for Israel’s security.
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Siraj Wahhaj Seeks My Validation  by Daniel Pipes
May 12, 2020
http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2020/05/siraj-wahhaj-seeks-my-validation

Why there’s no justice for Malki Roth
The need to keep radicals and Islamists out of power in Jordan continues to foil efforts to force the extradition of an unrepentant Palestinian murderer.
JONATHAN S. TOBIN

Israel: The Settlements Are Not Illegal
The annexation of lands in Judea and Samaria is not contrary to international lawby Michael Calvo  

• At the 2019 Jewish Leadership Conference, we were privileged to host former Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger for a conversation on what his distinguished career has taught him about great statesmen and able statesmanship.
• Last December, we hosted leading foreign policy expert Walter Russell Mead for a wide-ranging conversation on American foreign policy and the Middle East.
• Back in January 2019, Hudson Institute scholar Michael Doran took t0 the pages of our online publication, Mosaic, to provide the most comprehensive assessment of the Trump Administration's Middle East strategy anywhere on the web.

"Tunisia’s ‘war against an invisible enemy’," Benjamin Weinthal, FDD Policy Brief

AEI’s Michael Rubin: Iran's navy is dying a slow death

Iran has begun withdrawing forces from Syria, Israel’s departing defence minister Naftali Bennett said on Monday. Mr Bennett also urged his successor, Benny Gantz, to maintain pressure on Iran, saying Iran’s pull-out could be reversed. – The National

Ehud Yaari writes: When striving to subdue civilian populations, the Syrian army tends to rely on ranged firepower rather than infantry assaults. If these indiscriminate tactics are applied in Deraa, the death toll could be very steep.[…] In addition, these dynamics would pave the way for Iran to bolster its local proxies (e.g., “Battalion 313”) and entice unemployed youths to enlist by offering them salaries—perhaps including some of the 7,000 former rebels who used to receive assistance from the Israel Defense Forces. This could in turn give the IRGC and Hezbollah an opportunity to increase their own presence in Deraa’s western countryside facing the Golan, a longstanding Israeli redline. – Washington Institute

Ammar Shams Aldin writes: The notion of separation of powers in the constitution is designed to hinder the aggregation of political and economic power. Syria’s economy will continue to suffer until political power is constrained and directed toward limited objectives. The hope is that a new constitution, if taken seriously and properly implemented, will help Syria transition from a state whose institutions, rules, and policies depend on the dictates of its leadership to one where the distribution of power is restructured so that the lower levels of government can take on a greater role. – Middle East Institute

Against the backdrop of the high tension between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, the Saudi daily ‘Okaz published an unusually harsh article by Sattam bin Hadbaa mocking Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. […]Through this story, the writer implies that Erdogan, too, dreams of leading the world and renewing the glory of the Ottoman empire, but in reality he is more like a gang-leader who exploits the fools who admire him. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Bilal Y. Saab and Mick Mulroy write: It will not be easy for the GCC states. They cannot afford to increasingly challenge the current U.S. administration on Iran, because it might double down on its latest decision to withdraw some Patriot missile defense batteries from Saudi Arabia and pull out all American troops and equipment stationed on their territory. The U.S. already threatened to do that, had Saudi Arabia not stopped its recent oil price war with Russia. – Middle East Institute

​Tom Rogan writes: China’s new rhetoric is simply about buying time. So, yes, we should expect more pleasant words from Beijing toward international organizations. But when it comes to the crunch, those words will be divorced from any significant positive action. As is always and ever the case with the Chinese Communist Party, it ultimately cares only about self-preservation. – Washington Examiner

Generation Jihad Ep. 10: Endless Jihad
Hosts Bill Roggio and Tom Joscelyn discuss the “endless wars” narrative, explaining why it is more accurate to call the conflicts unleashed by 9/11 an “endless jihad.”

Taliban ‘reluctant to publicly break with al Qaeda,’ Inspector General reports
According to a new report by the Lead Inspector General for Operation Freedom’s Sentinel, U.S. officials have assessed that the Taliban is "reluctant to publicly break with al Qaeda," while Pakistan continues to harbor senior Taliban leaders, including the Haqqanis. The report confirms that the Taliban went on the offensive following the Feb. 29 withdrawal agreement with the U.S.

​Taliban emir demands ‘Islamic government’ for Afghansitan
Mullah Haibatullah, the leader of the Afghan Taliban and its Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, again called for the establishment of an "Islamic government" and the imposition of the group's harsh versions of sharia

Who Really Represents America’s Jews?
A conflict over a new leader threatens a storied organization
by Jonathan S. Tobin

US Deports Al Qaeda Terrorist to India.  U.S. Intelligence officials announced Thursday that convicted Al Qaeda terrorist Mohammed Ibrahim Zubair, found guilty of raising funds for the terrorist organization in the United States, has been deported to India after completing his sentence.  Zubair, an engineer from Hyderabad, was arrested in 2011 on charges of terror financing.  He was convicted for raising money for Al Qaeda leader Anwar al-Awlaki in 2009.  He was deported along with 167 other Indian deportees.  The English Post International Business Times

Rival Afghan leaders strike a power-sharing deal, but there are plenty of other obstacles on the road to peace
There was no other way to end the political logjam in conflict-ridden Afghanistan than to make President Ashraf Ghani and outgoing Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah agree to share power. The deal has been welcomed by the international community, but there are deeper obstacles to the peace process. 
Read article

MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE Spring 2020 Issue

Israel steps up military campaign against Iran’s military entrenchment in Syria

Generation Jihad Ep. 8 – The Islamic State’s Foundational Texts

Analysis: The Islamic State’s ideological campaign against al-Qaeda

Analysis: Islamic State claims al-Qaeda started a war in West Africa

Analysis: Soleimani’s last will and testament

Turkey targets US-backed Syrian Kurdish peace talks
 Turkey is openly disgruntled over the US-backed effort to unite disparate Syrian Kurdish factions that kicked off last month.

The Taliban Is Still the Main Driver of Violence in Afghanistan

Beijing is seeking to expel the US from the South China Sea

Jonathan Schanzer: Iranian Missiles "Likely to Be the Cause of the Middle East's Next War"
by Gary C. Gambill
May 12, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60908/schanzer-the-cause-of-the-middle-easts-next-war

 https://www.meforum.org/60908/schanzer-the-cause-of-the-middle-easts-next-war

Karl Kaltenthaler writes: Despite the challenges, Iraq and the United States do have a viable framework for a strategic dialogue that they can build upon existing agreements. […]Iraq needs a United States committed to its security and the United States needs an Iraq that views the United States as a partner and friend. In any case, a strategic dialogue is the place to start and both sides have every reason to define a new relationship that can lead to a lasting strategic partnership. – Washington Institute ​

Zvi Bar’el writes: Over 20 years ago, a new generation of rulers, like the king of Jordan, the king of Morocco and the president of Syria fueled hopes that these young leaders, all in their thirties then, would institute democratic regimes (or at least regimes that were more open and transparent), that they would adopt policies to protect human rights and carry out major economic reforms. Now the next generation of leaders that includes 39-year-old Qatari ruler Tamim bin Hamad and 34-year-old Prince Mohammed is showing yet again that political tradition is stronger than any new spirit. – Haaretz

Mohammed Alshuwaiter writes: Legitimacy is the ultimate foundation of authority that confers on the government the right to enforce the law. If Hadi and his government continue on their current path, their legitimacy will vanish. Were that to happen, the people of Yemen would find themselves in a very complicated situation, facing the dilemma of how to agree on a new framework for legitimacy and plunging the country into yet more conflict. – Middle East Institute

A team of Western mercenaries linked with two Dubai-based companies was briefly deployed to Libya to assist Russian-backed strongman Khalifa Haftar in his offensive to capture Tripoli, according to a confidential UN report, underscoring how the country’s proxy war has become a magnet for hired guns. – Bloomberg

Tanya Goudsouzian writes: Among the Russians, the Chinese, the Iranians and the United States, it’s yet to be seen who will win. It may be a single victor or an uneasy accommodation among the syndicates dividing up the spoils. They may fight economically but cooperate diplomatically. But regardless of how those countries collude or compete, without a fundamental re-examination and reformulation of the military-forward approach employed, the winner is unlikely to be the US. – The National Interest

Rolling Back Iran in Iraq
By John Toolan Jr., RealClearDefense: "Iranian proxies in Iraq are pinning ISIS’s resurgence on the United States. Iran’s longtime goal has been to undermine America’s regional commitment and provoke U.S. attacks that draw Iraqi condemnation. The United States should avoid a tit-for-tat with Iran or its proxies and instead launch a concerted effort to roll back Iran’s military presence in the country."

Keep Expectations Modest for Iraq’s New Government
By Douglas A. Ollivant, War on the Rocks: "“Iraq is like a race car that has been neglected and repeatedly wrecked. Al-Kadhimi is not the race car driver. He’s the tow truck driver.”"

Eli Lake writes: There is no single event that has caused Iran’s current loss of influence in Iraq. Nationwide protests against corruption and Iranian influence, as well as internal strife within and among Iranian-backed militias, helped Kadhimi’s rise. At the same time, Soleimani’s death was a factor. […]If that’s true, it’s a positive development — not just for Iraq but for the entire Middle East. – Bloomber

Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write: Despite worsening political acrimony, Kadhimi maintains broad Sunni and Kurdish support in Parliament and will likely be able to satisfy enough Shi’a blocs to ascend to the office of prime minister with a partial cabinet. Because of their shared interest in Kadhimi’s success, Iran and the US confined their competition to other lines of effort ahead of the June US-Iraq strategic dialogue, thereby creating enough space for Iraq’s political elites to negotiate government formation. – Institute for the Study of War

Collecting and analyzing Shiite militia attacks against the U.S. presence in Iraq

Five Priorities for the U.S.-Iraq Strategic Dialogue
Include Recognizing Regional Role for Iraq
From Al-Monitor: “Kadhimi benefits from strong ties with all of Iraq's constituencies and power centers, as well as the goodwill of Washington, Tehran, the Gulf and all key regional capitals."

Don’t let ‘strategic dialogue’ sink Iraq
Michael Rubin | RealClearDefense
To simply repeat in Iraq the precipitous withdrawals Trump ordered in Syria and Afghanistan and President Obama oversaw in Iraq will empower Iran and undercut the most competent leadership team postwar Iraq has had.

• Bloomberg’s Eli Lake: Iran is losing its grip in Iraq
  
• WINEP’s Simon Henderson: Has Trump finally lost patience with the Saudis?
  

UN report finds evidence of Russian mercenaries deployed in Libya 
United Nations experts confirmed that a Russian private military contractor has recruited between 800 and 1,200 mercenaries to fight alongside Libya’s eastern military strongman Khalifa Hifter, according to a report obtained by the Associated Press. The panel of experts monitoring sanctions against Libya said the Wagner Group, which is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has mainly recruited Syrian fighters. This was the first UN confirmation of claims that Hifter is supported by hundreds of Russian mercenaries in his offensive against the UN-backed government in Tripoli, which in turn is supported by Syrian fighters recruited by Turkey.
Read More  
apnews.com

The U.S.-Iraqi Relationship Is Coming to a Head—and That’s a Good Thing
​After 17 years, there is little love left between Washington and Baghdad. Upcoming talks may be the last opportunity to save their dysfunctional partnership.

• This Afghan General fought the Taliban for years. Now he has joined them.
  
• Indian and Chinese troops in scuffle on disputed border
  
• WaPo’s David Ignatius: Russia’s scavenger diplomacy is in full effect in the Middle East
  

Jeremy Hodge writes: Moscow’s inability to control Iranian backed Syrian militiamen engaged in widespread crime, corruption, and assaults on Russian forces has infuriated the Kremlin. But Russia is not the only major player on the ground with scores to settle against Iran, and the Russian military leadership in Syria has ignored if not largely encouraged Israeli strikes on Iranian troops throughout the country. […]Ironically, Erdoğan’s long-held desire to overthrow Syria’s president may still come to fruition, albeit not as he expected, as Assad’s ouster may come at the hands of Russia itself, and not the revolution. – The Daily Beast 
​
Will Todman writes: Extremist groups would benefit from increased instability in Syria. They have already used Covid-19 to their rhetorical advantage to the detriment of the United States’ reputation in the region. Non-state actors in the Middle East, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, have filled gaps in state services to gain influence. […]Finally, the centralization of aid in Damascus would further degrade the principle of unimpeded humanitarian access and undermine U.S. leadership on the issue. This precedent could carry implications for humanitarian operations in other conflict areas. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Michael Rubin writes: Optimists may hope that Erdogan’s defeat in Istanbul last year signals that Turks can reclaim their country and that democracy can still check Erdogan’s desire to rule for life and perhaps turn the reins of power over to his son or son-in-law. But the lesson Erdogan appears to have taken is not that he must listen to the people, but rather, he must punish Istanbul and become more ruthless in weeding out political opposition, real or imagined. – Washington Examiner
​
Seth J. Frantzman writes: In the past, Iran has used Turkey to get around US sanctions and Iran has even sought to use Turkey as a transit for goods destined for the Syrian regime and Hezbollah. Much of that has changed during the Syrian civil war, but Iran’s overall goal in the region is to work with Turkey to divide up the Middle East. – Jerusalem Post

Benjamin Weil writes: Enforcing counterterrorism laws and laws regarding the funding of terrorist organizations are also crucial. […]If we let Hezbollah gain more power and influence in Lebanon it would lead to greater conflicts across the Middle East. Alternatively, if we wait to bail out the country at a point where Hezbollah is already too strong, Hezbollah might get the credit for the financial recovery – this will only fuel the organization’s credibility in the minds of the people. Much like the coronavirus, we must act now and act hard before we lose control of the situation. – Jerusalem Post
​
Danielle Pletka writes: Long story short, Lebanon’s slow-motion collapse promises repercussions few can bother contemplating when minds are focused on pandemic-related foreign policy. But the notion that the erstwhile Lebanese state is soon to become a hybrid Iranian-Chinese bot from which all with means flee, and to which all with malign aims flock, seems a catastrophe worth minding. If not, Lebanon promises to join the ranks of Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and others in becoming yet another nexus of global threat and local misery. – The Dispatch

Options for a United States Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa
By Damimola Olawuyi, Divergent Options: "For the foreseeable future, any foreign policy towards Africa will need a robust counter terrorism component."

Turkey and the Libyan and Syrian Civil Wars
By Col. (res.) Dr. Dan Gottlieb and Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar, May 4, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is constantly looking for opportunities to enhance its status as a regional superpower and promote its Islamist ideology in the Arab Middle East. Libya is the newest arena in which Erdoğan is trying to capitalize on inter-Arab rivalries, this time in service to his desire to lay claim to gas under the seabed of the Mediterranean.
Continue to full article ->

​Tunisia extends state of emergency another month 
Tunisia announced on Wednesday that the state of emergency in force since 2015 will be extended by an additional month, according to a presidential statement. The announcement coincides with the government’s plan to ease the coronavirus-linked lockdown beginning next week. Tunisia has been under a state of emergency since November 2015, when a suicide bombing in Tunis claimed by the Islamic State killed 12 presidential guards.
Read More  
africa.cgtn.com

Kenneth Pollack assesses the appointment of Mustafa al-Khadimi, an Iraqi nationalist selected with the task of forming a government, and concludes that if there were ever a moment to build a strong independent Iraq, the time is now. Mustafa Kadhimi may be the last, best hope to begin moving Iraq in a better direction. Shouldn’t we help him help us? Read here.

Following last week’s disarray in oil markets, Karen Young took to Al-Monitor to explain that the problem of weak demand for energy products combined with a fear of a slow Chinese economic recovery pose a major concern for Gulf oil producers. The volatility in energy prices is a reflection of the uneven nature of global demand recovery and any expected reopening of national economies. Thus, Gulf producers must navigate an angry White House and Congress (with the threat of tariffs), uncertainty regarding Asian partners, and demand due to the pandemic. Learn more here.

West Africa hosts a network of Salafi-jihadi groups that is expanding as local conditions deteriorate. In a new AEI report, Katherine Zimmerman analyzes how the Sahel-based Salafi-jihadi groups coordinate and cooperate across organizational divides to create an ecosystem of ideology and terror. In an interactive graphic, Zimmerman displays how the groups’ coordinated effort to transform Sahelian society and governance into their vision under Islam has helped destabilize the region and has created opportunities for Salafi-jihadi growth. Read the full report here and view the interactive graphic here.

International crises that predate the coronavirus pandemic in Syria, Libya, and West Africa are getting worse with negative implications to US national security. In a RealClearWorld op-ed, Emily Estelle argues that the wars in Syria and Libya are creating conditions for which the US is unprepared and potential geopolitical crises in African states are at the verge of exacerbating. The US will wake up from its COVID-19 nightmare to renewed national security horrors if our leaders fail to take the right lesson from the pandemic: The best policy is one of early recognition and preemptive action. Read it here.

WINEP’s Farzin Nadimi: Iran's evolving approach to asymmetric naval warfare

Farzin Nadimi writes: The study, which includes maps, tables, and other graphics, covers everything from submarines to sea mines, while also distinguishing between the roles of the revolutionary navy (IRGCN) and the conventional one (IRIN). Most important, it offers a sober take on Iran’s capabilities and intentions during a perilously unstable time. – Washington Institute

Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write: Iraq’s political elites are conditioning their support for Prime Minister (PM)-designate Mustafa al-Kadhimi on the composition of his cabinet. The widening rift between Kadhimi and Iran-backed blocs has led Kadhimi to preserve the traditional system of ethno-sectarian quota filling, to marginalize protester demands, and to step up his comments about the “unjustified foreign [US] presence” in an attempt to mend ties. Behind the scenes, the US and Iran have continued their competition to influence Iraq’s future – Institute for the Study of War

eth J. Frantzman writes: The reduction of the Iraqi army presence and outsourcing of border security and raids to the PMU has the result of enabling sectarian militias to run the borders of Iraq, as opposed to the more unifying aspects of the Iraqi army. Despite years of training the Iraqi army to conduct anti-ISIS operations, it appears the PMU wants to keep the lion’s share of these operations to themselves, controlling rural areas and using the control to further political and economic goals. – Jerusalem Post

Sheikh Sadiq Al-Ghariani, who is regarded by the Muslim Brotherhood as the Grand Mufti of Libya, said in a video that aired on Al-Tanasuh TV (Libya) on April 15, 2020, that shari’a permits suicide bombings on the condition that they rattle the enemy, cause great harm and losses to the enemy, and cause a crushing defeat. – Middle East Media Research Institute

The fight to build America’s next missile interceptor has officially begun. The Missile Defense Agency on Friday released its request for proposal for its Next-Generation Interceptor (NGI). The RFP aims to downselect to two companies who will then compete for the right to build the interceptor, which will form the core of America’s homeland missile defense going forward. – Defense News

Thomas G. Mahnken writes: We need to learn from the past in developing the next generation of weapons. For example, in recent months, Australian defense analysts have discussed the attractiveness of the B-21 Raider stealth bomber for Australia’s defense needs. Export of the B-21 to a close ally such as Australia, should Canberra so desire, should be given serious consideration. The current situation is challenging, with even more difficult times to come. If we are smart, however, we can both keep Americans at work and get what we need for national defense. – Defense New

Trump Can Either Leave the Middle East or Have War With Iran
By Trita Parsi, RealClearDefense: "Mindful of the dwindling importance of Middle East oil to the U.S. and the U.S.’s lack of resources and expertise to “fix” dysfunctional states in that region, the cost-benefit analysis of retaining military hegemony in the Middle East no longer makes sense."

In Defense of Deterrence
By Michael Rühle, National Institute for Public Policy: "As the international environment is characterized by increased competition, the concept of deterrence, after over two decades of having received scant attention in the West, has re-entered the strategic lexicon."

Coronavirus Threatens to Drive Wedge into US-Gulf Relations
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, May 4, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: It is early days, but first indications are that the global coronavirus pandemic is entrenching long-drawn Middle Eastern geopolitical, political, ethnic, and sectarian battle lines rather than serving as a vehicle to build bridges and boost confidence. Gulf states are taking contradictory approaches to the problem of ensuring that entrenched conflicts do not spiral out of control as they battle the pandemic and struggle to cope with the economic fallout.
Continue to full article ->

COVID-19 in Libya

Pakistan’s Pandemic Response: Faith, Federalism, and the Challenge Ahead with Madiha Afzal

Hanin Ghaddar on Weakening Hezbollah's Control of Lebanon by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Radio
April 21, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60721/ghaddar-weakening-hezbollah-control-of-lebanon

Algeria’s ‘Revolution of Smiles’ Democracy Movement Hit Hard by COVID-19

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
Support for Full Withdrawal From Afghanistan Grows
By Leo Shane III, Military Times: “Nearly three-quarters of veterans surveyed and almost 70 percent of troops' family members support a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, according to a new poll from a conservative activist group released Wednesday."
RUSSIA:
Russia Field Testing Its New Armata Tank in Syria
By Kyle Mizokami, Popular Mechanics: “The Russian government has revealed that its new T-14 Armata main battle tank was shipped to Syria for use under “field conditions.

Russian Modernization of Its ICBM Force
By Mark B. Schneider, RealClearDefense: "Since 1997, Russia has been modernizing its ICBMs by replacing legacy Soviet ICBMs with new (post-Cold War) systems. In December 2019, Colonel General Sergei Karakayev, commander of Russia’s ICBM force (the Strategic Missile Force or RVSN) stated that 76% of Russia’s ICBM force had been modernized and that 100% would be by 2024."

Future Systems: A Road Forward for National Security
By Kimberly Aftergood, RealClearDefense: "When it comes to government IT modernization, the stakes are higher in national security, where the ability to maintain competitive advantage has significant real-world impact."

Aligning America’s Ends and Means in the Indo-Pacific
By Bradley Bowman & John Hardie, Defense News: "The U.S. combatant command responsible for the Indo-Pacific region warned in a report last month that it lacks the resources and capabilities necessary to implement the National Defense Strategy. This mismatch between ends and means endangers American interests and invites Beijing to pursue opportunistic aggression.” ​

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/04/generation-jihad-ep-5-banned-in-pakistan.php

Israel warns Hezbollah over its recent activity in Syria
A recent series of incidents between Israel and Hezbollah has increased the likelihood of renewed conflict between the two foes.

​The message behind Israel’s drone attack
Hezbollah is on edge as Israel continues its drone war in Lebanon.

Arrests in Germany highlight reach of Islamic State’s Central Asian network
German prosecutors announced last week that four alleged ISIS members were arrested and charged with planning attacks against U.S. military facilities. The four are from Tajikistan, a Central Asian country ISIS has long targeted for its recruiting efforts.

Al Qaeda, Islamic State strike across the Sahel
The two jihadist groups continue their rampage in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

Who Runs Iran’s Propaganda Machine Abroad

Ex-Mossad official: Iran nuke submarine idea cover for uranium enrichment
Tehran losing Gaza influence  Read More...

Iran Seeks to Block Investigation of January’s Ukrainian Airliner Cras

India and Pakistan Exchange Fire with Sameer Lalwani

Is the Infantry Brigade Combat Team Becoming Obsolete? by Daniel Vazquez

The Islamic Revolution vs. Donald Trump
​Iran and Ayatollah Khamenei are more influential today than at any time since 1979.

Iran vs. Trump: Suleimani’s Legacy, and Khamenei’s Ambitions
​The supreme leader and Trump may well end the long-running, region-defining clash. We just don't know yet quite how.

The Israel Defense Forces on Friday accused the Syrian army of helping the Hezbollah terror group establish a permanent military presence on the Golan Heights, releasing video footage showing a senior Syrian officer visiting the region. – Times of Israel

WINEP’s Farzin Nadimi and IITV's Hamdi Malik: Qaani’s surprise visit to Baghdad and the future of the PMF

Michael Rubin writes: Whereas just a few months ago, most Iranians were indifferent to their government’s outreach to China and the growing Chinese presence in Iran, that too will likely change as suspicion of China and the Chinese will likely taint government outreach. Russia will always have a greater stigma within Iranian society than China, but no longer will Tehran be able to sell its turn toward Beijing as cost-free. That will not mean that Iranian leaders would abandon their eastern strategy, but even ardent regime Islamists recognize the potency of grassroots Iranian nationalism and will think twice about openly crossing it. – The National Interest

Secrecy, denial, and incompetence have condemned thousands of Iranians to their deaths amid the coronavirus. In a National Interest op-ed, Michael Rubin argues that if the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps is at the forefront of the Iranian fight against COVID-19, the coronavirus will likely erode Iran military readiness. Even if Iranian leaders now adopt best practices, it is likely too late to control the virus’ continued spread in Tehran meaningfully.  Continue here.

ICYMI: Last December, Hal Brands, Kenneth Pollack, and Steven Cook noted in Foreign Policy that President Trump sees himself as a leader who shatters generations of conventional wisdom in US foreign policy. In the case of Iran, he is right. And unless the president changes course, he will usher in a brave new era in US relations with the Persian Gulf — one that may well help Iran claim its long-sought ascendancy in that region and leave Americans longing for the good old days of the Carter Doctrine. Read more here.

Iran deploys missiles covering the Strait of Hormuz

COVID-19, the oil price war, and the remaking of the Middle East
The geoeconomics and geopolitics of the world are in free fall because of COVID-19, the oil price war, and a severe economic shutdown. For the Middle East and the Gulf monarchies in particular, the oil price war against Russia and U.S. shale and the shutdown of economies around the world have increased the pressure on the Gulf’s already-depleted financial resources, which usually act as a safety valve for the turbulent region. 
Read article

Evidence suggests that Iran has deployed an array of anti-ship missiles and large rockets overlooking Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is vital for the supply of oil from the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. The waterway is being patrolled by U.S. Navy and its allies to protect vessels from Iranian action. – Forbes

China’s Strategic Assessment of Afghanistan by Yun Sun

AEI’s Michael Rubin: Pakistan is showing U.S. enemies how to defeat America

HOOVER

MEMRI’s Steven Stalinsky: What jihadists are saying about the coronavirus

Jonathan E. Hillman and Maesea McCalpin write: Facing a harsher economic environment, however, China and Pakistan may be forced to make additional tradeoffs between completing energy and transportation projects that were started during the first phase and focusing on these areas. Canceling more big-ticket projects could be financially wise but politically challenging given the CPEC’s symbolic importance to Xi’s signature foreign policy vision. But if Pakistan does not carefully steer the Belt and Road’s flagship during the next five years, it could find itself scrambling for the lifeboats. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​

Australia’s Big Stake in India’s Military Reorganization by David Brewster

Farahnaz Ispahani writes: The Pakistani government, responding to international outrage at the court decision, has announced that it will go into appeal and will not free Mohammed. But those who know how things in Pakistan really work know that the stage has likely been set for another murderer’s freedom. – Washington Examiner

Syria's Chemical Arsenal: A U.S.-British Row over Assad's Weapons?
by Wyn Bowen and Matthew Moran
Middle East Quarterly
Spring 2020 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/60502/syrias-wmd-a-us-british-ro

Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of the Iranian regime’s Expediency Council whose members are appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and whose role it is to advise him, published an article on April 2, 2020 via the Fars news agency. In the article, Rezaee, who is also a former commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), discussed the ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic for the world. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Four decades since its Islamic Revolution made it a pariah, Tehran has cobbled together one of the world’s most bizarre air forces—a combination of rebuilt U.S.-supplied planes dating from the 1970s plus homegrown designs of highly varying value and, most strangely of all, scores of aircraft essentially stolen from Iraq after they fled to Iran to escape American attack during the 1991 Gulf War. – The National Interest

Amos Yadlin and Ari Heistein write: The urgency of the situation at hand should not cause us to lose sight of the broader strategic picture. Humanitarian assistance to the Iranian people is a moral necessity at this time, but it would be preposterous to entrust such aid without adequate oversight to the very government which is responsible for murdering thousands of its own citizens as well as tens of thousands more throughout the region. – Times of Israel 

Ilan Berman writes: It would also indicate that, notwithstanding the rhetoric of regime officials and policymakers, the Islamic Republic is not actually persevering in its battle with the disease. To the contrary, the statistics suggest that the country is slowly succumbing to it, even as authorities hide the true extent of the health crisis from both the international community and their own captive population. – Radio Farda 
​
Rahim Hamid and Mostafa Hetteh write: If international bodies do not condemn these atrocities, the regime will see the international preoccupation with coronavirus as a way to mask its abuse of prisoners and refusal to prevent mass infections within its prison systems in Ahwaz and throughout Iran. So far, those released in amnesty have masked Iran’s continued human rights abuses against those political prisoners still trapped in Iran’s jails. In the midst of a crisis, the international community must take this opportunity to pressure Iran on this crucial issue. – Washington Institute 

Hussein Ibish writes: But Iran still has a trump card in Iraq: the Shiite sectarian militia groups collectively known as the Popular Mobilization Forces. Using them to attack the U.S. provides that military leverage with a degree of plausible deniability. […]Moreover, Iran needs the PMF groups to consolidate their position within the Iraqi political structure and fend off a potential pro-U.S. prime minister. – Bloomberg ​

Jordan is in discussions with the IMF seeking to change some of the objectives of a four-year programme of structural reforms because of the negative impact of the coronavirus on the aid-dependent economy, the central bank governor said on Tuesday. […]The kingdom’s economy has suffered since it closed its borders nearly a month ago, followed by a tight lockdown that has shuttered businesses and paralysed public life. – Reuters 
​
Algeria, under pressure to find new sources of finance, set up a religious body in charge of Islamic finance on Tuesday in a final step towards launching sharia-compliant services. […]The government is targeting local savers rather than foreign investors as many Algerians distrust the country’s state banks and prefer to keep large sums of money at home. – Reuters 

Ramy Aziz writes: The question of growing Russian and, to a lesser extent, Chinese influence in North Africa is not a new issue, but the visible fissures within the European Union given the strain of coronavirus also suggest a potential shift in its attitudes towards conflicts in the Middle East where the EU and Russia have clashed. As Europe struggles, Italy may be inclined to support—or at least remain neutral on—increased Russian and Chinese influence in countries like Libya and Syria. – Washington Institute ​

Leak Reveals Jihadists’ Weakening Grip in Syria’s Idlib by Sam Heller

Can Saudi Arabia win the oil price war?
Nikolay Kozhanov

MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE Winter 2019 Issue

U.S. Must Be Wary as Iran’s Parliament Veers Hard Right
Nicholas Carl 
Principlists—often called hardliners in the West—are regaining influence in key institutions and trying to undermine so-called moderates. Iran will likely transition from relative moderates to principlists controlling all three branches of government by mid-2021. Expanding hardliner control will facilitate increasingly aggressive and authoritarian Iranian behavior while exacerbating economic turmoil and domestic dissent.
Read the full article here.

• ​The al Houthi Movement
  
• The Salafi-Jihadi Movement in Yemen

Last month marked five years since the start of the Saudi-led coalition air campaign in Yemen. The Critical Threats Project has closely tracked Yemen since before the current conflict began. Included below are recommended reads to deepen your understanding of Yemen and the ongoing war.

• Yemen File: 2019 in Review | December 2019
• Questions for the Record: Taking the Lead Back in Yemen | Katherine Zimmerman | April 2019
• Yemen’s anti-al Houthi coalition is collapsing, and America’s Gulf partners are partially to blame | James Barnett | August 2019
• A New Model for Defeating al Qaeda in Yemen | Katherine Zimmerman | September 2015
• Yemen's Pivotal Moment | Katherine Zimmerman | February 2014

A new generation lays its predecessors' ghosts to rest
In Al-Monitor's latest longform, we look at young people throughout the Mideast who have been at the forefront of efforts to turn the page on decades of sclerotic and rigged politics in favor of a more democratic alternative.

Iraq’s president taps intelligence chief to form new government
Iraqi President Barham Salih has appointed Mustafa al-Kadhimi, director of Iraq's National Intelligence Service, as Iraq's next prime minister-designate after Adnan Al-Zurfi withdrew his candidacy.

​Gregg Roman writes: Annexation can be seen as a step towards ending the deadlock between the parties. It should be the pressure to place on Palestinian leaders to acknowledge that they will not defeat Israel as the national homeland of the Jewish People. It will show the Palestinians that rejectionism has consequences and force them to give up longstanding violent aims. Most of all, it will fulfill the vision of Israeli leaders — from the left, right, and center, such as Rabin, Menachem Begin and Ariel Sharon — who understood implicitly that Israel will always retain the settlements and the Jordan Valley. It is time to take them off the table. – The Hill

Pompeo to Israel: A Scene Sette

The American Public and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, 2000-2020
By Prof. Eytan Gilboa, May 11, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Data and analysis of surveys of American public opinion on three issues—views of Israel vs. the Palestinian Authority, sympathies with the two sides, and support for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state—reveal that from 2000 to 2020, Americans have consistently viewed Israel favorably and the Palestinian Authority unfavorably and shown much more sympathy for Israelis than for Palestinians. They are increasingly supportive of the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, a trend that might have resulted from the inclusion of a Palestinian state in President Donald Trump’s peace plan.
Continue to full article ->

Israel’s top court to decide fate of Netanyahu’s unity government
The political fate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the feasibility of a national unity government are now in the hands of the Israeli Supreme Court.

Israel: Back to the Future
Editorial of The New York Sun | May 1, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/israel-back-to-the-future/91113/

Hezbollah responds to recent warnings from Israel
Israel and Hezbollah attempt to maintain the status quo that has kept them from conflict despite recent military activity between the two.

Israeli opposition shatters into Blue against White
 Former Blue and White partners Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid are now officially rivals for the same center-left electorate.

Why does Israel's center-left stick to the same failed strategy?
 The failed attempts by Israel's center-left to adopt the strategy of Kadima under Ehud Olmert to win election and form a government could be opening the door to the possible establishment of a Jewish-Arab party.

WHY A 4TH ELECTION IS COMING

Unity agreement: Nothing that couldn't have been agreed on in April 2019
If only they had felt such shame 10 months earlier, perhaps Israel would have been spared two unnecessary elections and too many months of embarrassing, petty political haggling.
Read More...

AL-MONITOR'S ISRAELI SECTION

Israel’s president tasks parliament with forming new government 
Israeli President Reuven Rivlin notified opposition leader Benny Gantz Thursday morning that he was transferring the mandate to form a new government to the Israeli parliament. Despite assurances they were close to a breakthrough, Gantz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to reach an agreement by the Wednesday night deadline set by Rivlin. After three inconclusive elections, a unity deal between the two rivals would have given Israel its first stable government since December 2018. The Knesset will now have 21 days to propose a majority-supported candidate or Israel will face a fourth round of voting. 
Read More  
al-monitor.com

Is Israel's Gantz crafting his political demise or a new beginning?
Even if Blue and White's Benny Gantz fails in his attempt to form the next Israeli government, he could emerge from the effort looking like the adult in the room and the person who put the interest of the state above his own.

Farzin Nadimi and Hamdi Malik write: The signs of deep resentment among pro-Sistani and pro-Iran militia units suggest an eventual bifurcation in the PMF ranks, and Kadhimi’s appointment could accelerate that process. Such a scenario would deeply damage the organization’s legitimacy as an official Iraqi military body. Although the PMF is dominated by Iranian-backed factions, much of the general population still admires it as the fruit of Sistani’s 2014 fatwa asking all able-bodied Iraqi men to take up arms and fight the Islamic State. If factions supervised by Sistani’s assistants decide to withdraw from the PMF, it would tarnish the organization’s public reputation. – Washington Institute
​
Anthony H. Cordesman writes: Accordingly, a meaningful strategic dialogue between the United States and Iraq must address all three of these sets of issues – or ghosts – politics and governance, economics, and security. It cannot continue to be focused on security, and particularly on ISIS. Iraq must find its own answers in each case, and the United States cannot help an Iraq that cannot unite or act to the point where it can help itself. At the same time, the United States must decide whether it will commit itself to a sustained effort to help Iraq emerge as a nation that is unified and strong enough to prevent further civil conflict and act independently of Iranian pressure and threats. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

On April 8, 2020, the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper published a report, citing a “security source” as saying that Iran is providing training and weapons to the newly founded Iraqi Shi’ite group, called “The League of Revolutionaries” to target U.S. interests and harm Gulf interests. According to the report, the militia is trained and armed by Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) and that training includes preparations for attacking American bases, oil companies, and kidnapping soldiers. – Middle East Media Research Institute

On April 8, 2020, the League of Revolutionaries, a recently formed Iraqi group that appears to be an Iranian proxy, released an approximately two-minute video threatening U.S. troops in Iraq. – Middle East Media Research Institute

WIN:  NATANYAHU IS STRONGER

Coalition talks in Israel resume with deadline tonight 
After five days with no talks over an emergency, power-sharing government in Israel, the Likud and Blue and White parties resumed negotiations Sunday night. Earlier that day, President Reuven Rivlin rejected a request by Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to extend his mandate to form a government, which is due to expire tonight at midnight. After the March 2 elections, Gantz was tapped by 61 lawmakers as their preferred choice to form the next government, but he currently does not have the majority needed to do so. 
The High Court rejected on Sunday evening a petition filed that morning seeking to disqualify Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from forming a government due to his upcoming corruption trial. The court ruled that the petition was premature, since the president had not tasked Netanyahu with forming the next government.
Read More  ​

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz instructed their teams to immediately resume intensive negotiations on an emergency government after five days with no talks on Sunday after President Reuven Rivlin rejected both their requests for a mandate to build a coalition. – Jerusalem Post

A disingenuous debate about annexation
American Jews protesting the prospect of Israeli action to formalize its hold on territory aren’t defending chances for peace or a realistic plan to achieve it.
JONATHAN S. TOBIN

Netanyahu puts settlers before Israel, again
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blew up coalition talks following right-wing attacks against him for letting Blue and White control the committee that appoints Supreme Court justices.

Netanyahu Won, but Israel's Right Wing Lost by Nave Dromi
Haaretz
March 31, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60661/netanyahu-won-but-israel-right-wing-lost

Negotiations stall on Israeli unity government
 Talks between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Blue and White head Benny Gantz on an emergency government have hit an impasse over the Likud's priority of annexing the West Bank.

​What can we learn from the left's disappointment in Gantz?
 The left-wing camp is disappointed after perceiving Blue and White leader Benny Gantz as a 2020 model of late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

Israel’s Political and Constitutional Crisis with Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer 

Turkey's Syria Intervention Serves Israeli Strategic Interests
By Dmitri Shufutinsky, March 29, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkey’s invasion of Syria to protect Idlib will bog it down in a war it cannot win. At the same time, it severely weakens the Assad regime and could help oust Iran from Syria.
Continue to full article ->

Political crisis proves Israel needs constitution
 Ignoring Israel’s laws and rules and in order to avoid complying with the High Court’s directives, Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein chose to resign.

Over the past few days, the ongoing political turmoil in Israel seems to have morphed into a potential constitutional crisis (albeit for a state without a written Constitution). At the core of the issue: the ongoing conflict between Israel's High Court of Justice—its leading judicial body—and the Knesset—the country's parliament. For some deeper perspective on this issue, I recommend a 2016 essay in Mosaic, "Disorder in the Court," by Israeli intellectual Evelyn Gordon, with responses by Haviv Rettig Gur and Jeremy Rabkin. The piece takes a hard look at how judicial activism in Israel has undermined democratic self-government and public confidence in the rule of law.
Read it here now.

Gantz made a tough decision. Will he regret it?
Blue and White leader Benny Gantz slammed the door on his anti-Netanyahu partners to join a unity government with the Likud, but will he ever occupy the Prime Minister's Office?

ISRAELI POLITICS: CAN BIBI GOVERN?

ISRAELI POLITICS EXPLAINED

Israel: Maybe the Dog Will Talk
Editorial of The New York Sun | March 27, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/israel-maybe-the-dog-will-talk/91065/

"IMF Should Reject Islamic Republic’s Loan Request," Richard Goldberg and Saeed Ghasseminejad, FDD Policy Brief

• WINEP’s Farzin Nadimi: Khamenei securitizes the pandemic as the IRGC mulls regional action
  
• Israeli Opposition Splinters, Paving Way for Netanyahu to Remain Prime Minister
  

Farzin Nadimi writes: Finally, the pandemic’s serious effects inside Iran should not be regarded as evidence that the Iranian military threat has decreased. Washington should continue taking the IRGC threat to its regional military presence seriously, deploying a viable air and missile defense capability in Iraq and perhaps even Afghanistan in order to deter any attacks. And while it cannot maintain a two-carrier force posture in the region indefinitely, it still needs to maintain a demonstrated qualitative and quantitative advantage in Iran’s neighborhood—and, perhaps more important, credibility that it will respond at the right time and place. – Washington Institute 
​
Anthony H. Cordesman writes: It should be stressed that all of the current trends in both Iran’s missile forces and in the speculation regarding its efforts to develop and deploy weapons of mass destruction continue to assume that the Iranian regime will give priority to military forces over civil needs in spite of the steady hardening of U.S. sanctions and the growing impact of the Coronavirus. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

Ali Bakeer writes: As the Turkish defense sector grows though, it will need to overcome significant internal challenges to sustain its momentum in the long run, such as halting brain drain, securing large-scale funding, accessing critical markets, and avoiding potential negative knock-on effects from Turkey’s foreign policy endeavors that might deprive it of advanced technology and important customers. The challenges are substantial, but as the success of the Syrian drone campaign has made clear, Turkey’s defense industry has undoubtedly made significant progress.  – Middle East Institute

INSS' Amos Yadlin and Ari Heistein: Calls to reduce pressure on Iran’s regime are reckless and misguided

JPost’s Seth J.Frantzman: The PMU is getting more aggressive in Iraq

The Evolution Of Arab Popular Opinion Toward Iran, And Iranian Self-Perceptions
by Karim Sadjadpour via The Caravan
The Middle East’s conflicts and autocracies—hostile to independent researchers and pollsters—make it one of the most challenging regions of the world to accurately assess public opinion. The competing popular demonstrations in the region both before and after the killing of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani illustrates the confusion.

​Zeinab Soleimani: Islam's Female Avenger
By Dr. Edy Cohen, March 10, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The jihad against America and the West has a new, more feminine face after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani: his daughter Zeinab, who has vowed revenge.
Continue to full article ->

After Soleimani, Iran Sends Shamkhani to Iraq to Take Control by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
March 10, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60554/iran-sends-shamkhani-to-iraq-to-take-control

US deploys missile defenses to Iraq after attacks from Iran 
The United States is deploying missile defenses to Iraq in the wake of attacks in January from Iran, Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, head of US forces in the Middle East, said Tuesday. “[The Pentagon is] in the process of bringing air defense systems, ballistic missile defense systems, into Iraq in particular, to protect ourselves against another potential Iranian attack,” McKenzie said.
Iran retaliated for the Jan. 3 assassination of Commander Qasem Soleimani by firing missiles at Iraqi bases hosting US troops, causing traumatic brain injuries to more than 100 service members. Last month, Iran inaugurated a new missile that is lighter and has a longer range than the ones used in those attacks. Meanwhile, the US military, after concluding that the spike in tensions with Iran has begun to subside, has withdrawn about 1,000 combat troops deployed to Kuwait days after the Soleimani strike, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Read More  
newsweek.co

 Saudi Arabia moves to show king still in charge after palace 'coup' averted 
Saudi state media on Sunday released photographs of King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud performing his royal duties, shrugging off speculation that he is in poor health and could soon step down. The king is shown attending the swearing-in ceremony of new ambassadors to Ukraine and Uruguay. Saudi authorities released the images after detaining three princes on Friday for allegedly plotting a coup, raising speculation that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman could accede to the throne sooner than expected. Masked guards reportedly arrested the king’s younger brother Prince Ahmed and his nephew Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, both of whom were potential contenders for the throne. Prince Nayef's younger brother Prince Nawaf bin Nayef was also detained.
Read More  
al-monitor.com

Benny Gantz and the pyromaniacal cockpit

A minority government will unravel Blue and White

The High Court is making society suffer  ​

Blue and White's Plan B will backfire

THE STATE OF PLAY IN ISRAELI POLITICS AFTER THE ELECTION

History Won't Wait For Gantz To Bow To Israel's Voters
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | March 20, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/history-wont-wait-for-gantz-to-bow-to-israels/91056/

Israel faces showdown over Knesset reopening 
Israel faces a political showdown over the functioning of the Knesset as speaker Yuli Edelstein of the ruling Likud party tries to shut down parliament, citing coronavirus concerns, while rival parties cry foul. The main opposition Blue and White party has accused Edelstein of trying to prevent the Knesset from forming new committees following this month's general elections, in order to block legal action against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following his indictment on corruption charges. Several parties are seeking to replace Edelstein while pushing bills that would prevent an indicted politician from leading the government. Israel's High Court this week ordered that Knesset committees be formed by March 23.

The showdown comes as negotiations continue over the formation of Israel's next government. Blue and White leader Benny Gantz has 24 more days to try to cobble together a ruling coalition before his mandate expires and another political leader is given the chance. Gantz has the support of a bare majority of 61 Knesset members for the task, but two members of his own party refuse to back any government supported by the Joint List of major Arab Israeli parties, making the task appear insurmountable. Meanwhile, negotiations continue between Blue and White and the Likud on a possible unity government in which Gantz and Netanyahu would rotate as head of government.

The Struggle for Israel's Jewish Soul
By Prof. Efraim Karsh and Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, March 16, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The possibility of an Israeli minority government that relies on the Joint Arab List underscores the clear and present danger of accommodating political parties and movements that reject the existence of the Jewish state and propagate Israel’s transformation into a Palestinian Arab (Muslim) state.
Continue to full article ->

 Netanyahu rival gets first shot at forming next government 
Israeli President Reuven Rivlin today officially tasked Benny Gantz, the leader of the Blue and White party, with trying to form the next government. The move comes after Gantz picked up endorsements from a diverse coalition including the secular nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party of former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, the Joint List of major Arab-Israeli parties and six out of seven members of the center-left Labor-Gesher-Meretz party. Gantz now has one month to try to assemble a governing coalition.

Adding to the political uncertainty, Rivlin summoned Gantz and Netanyahu Sunday evening for an “urgent conversation” regarding the “possibility of forming a government immediately,” according to a statement from the president's residence. Netanyahu has been calling for Blue and White to join a unity government with his Likud party to combat the spread of the coronavirus. Separately, the government on Sunday approved short-term mass surveillance of Israelis’ phones to help track the interactions of people diagnosed with the virus. The measure, which has raised privacy concerns, requires final approval from the Knesset’s subcommittee on clandestine services.
Read More  
timesofisrael.com

Netanyahu goes on trial 

After an unprecedented third election in less than 12 months, Israel's political system experiences another seismic shock this coming week as a sitting prime minister goes on trial for the first time in the country's history. Benjamin Netanyahu is set to appear Tuesday in Jerusalem District Court for the start of his trial in three separate criminal cases in which he is accused of exchanging political favors for personal gain. Last week, the prime minister's defense team asked for a 45-day delay, arguing that they did not receive all the documents they are entitled to from the prosecution. But the court rejected the request and said the trial will go ahead as planned, with Netanyahu in person expected to attend.

The trial comes as Israel struggles to form a government following March 2 elections that once again resulted in a deadlock between Netanyahu's coalition of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties and a center-left bloc dominated by the Blue and White party of Benny Gantz. President Reuven Rivlin is expected to begin consultations on Sunday with party leaders to decide who should get the first stab at trying to cobble together a governing coalition. Netanyahu initially proclaimed victory after his coalition won 58 seats — three shy of the 61 needed for a majority — but since then Gantz has worked to assemble a minority government supported on the outside by the Arab Joint List.
​
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus has added another layer of uncertainty to the mix. With the number of cases now topping 100 and the government banning large gatherings and closing schools for a month, Netanyahu on Thursday called for the formation of a short-term national unity government to combat the epidemic. Such a government, Netanyahu said, “would be an emergency government for a limited time, and we will fight together to save the lives of tens of thousands of citizens.”

UNITY GOVERNMENT POSSIBLE?

Israel’s Gantz ready to do whatever it takes to topple Netanyahu
 Blue and White leader Benny Gantz is now ready to do whatever it takes to topple Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including going back on his promise not to establish a government backed by the Arab Joint List.

Israel’s right engaged in wild anti-Arab incitement
 Blue and White leader Benny Gantz’s attempts to establish a minority government with the support of the Arab Joint List is leading right-wing ministers to intensify their inciteful tone against Arab legislators.

​Is Israel's 'Sovereignty Road' project step toward annexation?
 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s interim government is busily advancing various annexation moves with the excuse of addressing the settlers’ living conditions

A Gantz-led government, recipe for Jewish-Arab reconciliation?
 Partnership with Arab and Muslim parties is not a "problem," but an opportunity to heal Israeli society and advance Jewish-Muslim reconciliation.

China's New Silk Road Strategy and the Middle East
By Dr. Mordechai Chaziza, March 8, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In recent years, the People’s Republic of China has significantly increased its economic and diplomatic engagement with the Middle East. Most of Beijing’s investment in the region focuses on energy, infrastructure construction, nuclear power, new energy sources, agriculture, and finance. These investments serve not only China’s interests but also those of Middle Eastern countries hoping to boost their economies as a means of strengthening social stability.
Continue to full article ->

​Does Jewish-Arab partnership to form government stand a chance in Israel?
 The Likud is continuing its campaign of incitement against Arab party representatives to head off their helping form a minority government led by Blue and White.

Does Israel's Gantz stand a chance at establishing a government?
The chances of Blue and White leader Benny Gantz establishing a minority government with Avigdor Liberman and the support of the Arab Joint List are not high, yet the risks he is taking are huge.

Protesters Push Arab Militaries Off Their Pedestal
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, March 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A decade of anti-government protests in the Arab world have thrown popular trust in the military into the garbage bin and undermined the military’s position as one of the most trusted institutions.
Continue to full article ->

Israel tries (again) to form a government 

Political horse-trading begins in earnest in the next few days as Israelis try once again to cobble together a government and avoid a fourth election in a row. President Reuven Rivlin is expected to open talks with party leaders as early as Sunday on who should get the first shot at trying to assemble a ruling coalition after two previous failed attempts. The central election committee has until Tuesday to submit final election results, after which talks begin in earnest.
With Benjamin Netanyahu’s alliance of right-wing and religious parties winning 58 Knesset seats in Monday’s election – three short of an outright majority – the prime minister is the favorite. Netanyahu has already started talks with his allies to ensure that he is the nominee. Talks this time are complicated by Netanyahu’s indictment on corruption charges. His trial is scheduled to begin March 17, which is also the deadline for Rivlin to assign the task of forming a government to one of the candidates. Netanyahu’s chief rival, Benny Gantz, refuses to back a unity government led by Netanyahu and is pushing legislation to bar an indicted politician from serving as head of government. The bill’s unexpected endorsement by Avigdor Liberman, the head of the nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party, has drastically increased the bill’s chances.

But Gantz faces his own set of obstacles. His Blue and White party came in second behind Netanyahu’s Likud, which it had bested in the previous elections in September. Israel’s alliance of major Arab parties, the Arab Joint List, has said it won’t endorse Gantz unless he stands against annexation of the Jordan Valley and reverses course on his refusal to include the Arab alliance in his coalition. Liberman for his part insists he will not sit in a government that is either headed by Netanyahu or backed by the Arab Joint List.

Israel's election committee has published the results of Monday's election showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc with 58 seats — three short of the parliamentary majority needed to form a government.
Why it matters: Worse still for Netanyahu, particularly in the wake of what looked like a remarkable victory, a majority might now be uniting behind an effort to effectively end his political career.
Breaking it down: Netanyahu's Likud Party won the most seats in Monday's election, with 36. Allied right-wing parties won an additional 22.

• The Blue and White party, led by Netanyahu's centrist rival Benny Gantz, won 33 seats. The liberal Labor Party won 7.
• The Joint List of predominantly Arab parties had its best-ever showing, winning 15 seats.
• A nationalist party led by former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman won 7.

The big picture: Israeli politics have been deadlocked for a year, with Netanyahu and Gantz both failing to form majority governments after two previous elections.
Driving the news: This time could be different. Lieberman now says he will recommend Gantz to form the next government.

• If the Joint List does the same, that will put 62 seats behind Gantz — at least temporarily — and make it likely that President Reuven Rivlin will offer him a mandate to form a government.
• Crucially, Gantz would control the parliamentary agenda during that process.

Between the lines: That could leave Netanyahu powerless to stop a bill that would prevent anyone under criminal indictment from forming a government.

• His corruption trial begins March 17.

Read the full story

A Shia 'Awakening'?
by Nibras Kazimi via The Caravan
The proponents of America’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran have argued that the four-month-long anti-status quo protests that have wracked Iraq, Lebanon and Iran are transnational in character and seek to limit or end the influence of Iran’s current leadership both regionally and internally. 
​
The Shia Vs. The "Shia Crescent"
by Hanin Ghaddar via The Caravan
On February 15, 2020, Hezbollah organized a ceremony to unveil a statue of Qassem Soleimani in the Lebanese town of Maroun al-Ras, roughly half a mile from the border with Israel. The statue shows Soleimani with his arm stretched out in front of him, pointing toward Israel. 

The 100th Anniversary of the Battle of Tel Hai… and the Election Results
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, March 5, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: At the hundredth anniversary of the Battle of Tel Hai (which occurred on March 1, 1920), it is instructive to recall the heated debate that preceded it among the Yishuv leadership concerning the question of abandoning the site. This debate sheds light on the decline of the Zionist left in general and the results of the latest Israeli elections in particular.
Continue to full article ->

JUDITH MILLER
Bibi’s Next Act
Benjamin Netanyahu is poised to extend his reign as Israel's longest-serving prime minister.

Israel's New Diplomatic Moment by Jonathan Spyer
The Wall Street Journal
March 3, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60527/israel-new-diplomatic-moment

The Mind Is A Map-Maker
by Charles Hill via The Caravan
A map of the Middle East after the World War I collapse of the Ottoman Empire and Caliphate shows no state boundaries, only lines of control by European powers over the territories vacated by “The Sublime Porte” -- the Islamic hegemon in Istanbul.

Israel vs. Hezbollah: The Third Lebanon War
By Dr. Ehud Eilam, March 9, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Ever since the 2006 war, Israel has preferred to contain Hezbollah rather than fight it directly. So determined was Israel to avoid going to war with the terrorist group that it tolerated its significant military buildup. Since 2012, however, the IAF has carried out hundreds of sorties inside Syria aimed at stopping the delivery of advanced weapons to Hezbollah. Israel can continue to delay the arming of Hezbollah, but it has already become quite strong, and a war could occur even if neither side wants it.
Continue to full article ->

​Why Otzmah Yehudit flamed out in Israeli elections
 The decline in support for Otzmah Yehudit, which once again failed to pass the vote threshold to enter the Knesset, was especially notable in the settlements.

​Does Jewish-Arab partnership to form government stand a chance in Israel?
 The Likud is continuing its campaign of incitement against Arab party representatives to head off their helping form a minority government led by Blue and White.

UAE shows path for peaceful nuclear development
Fuel assemblies have been loaded into the first of four UAE nuclear power plants following the country's yearslong effort to develop major national and international support for nuclear energy.

Pakistan fears Afghan peace failure could bring violence its way

Game of power politics far from over in Pakistan
Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman, the leader of Pakistan’s Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam Fazal, has failed to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan despite being backed by a faction within the military establishment. But in doing so he has strengthened the hands of the main opposition parties Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and Pakistan Peoples Party, reports Imad Zafar.

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/03/taliban-religious-decree-calls-for-its-emir-to-rule-islamic-government-in-afghanistan.php

How Can Negotiations Bring Wars to an End? by Patrick S. Roberts and Ariel I. Ahram

 Al Jazeera NPR

Analysis: Taliban leader declares victory after U.S. agrees to withdrawal deal

U.S. military perplexed by Taliban living up to letter of agreement

For peace in Afghanistan, Pakistan is the key
The chasm between illusion and reality in politics remains perennial. Wars seldom end according to the script of peace agreements. The fall of Saigon in April, 1975, ending the Vietnam War, with defeated Americans hastily retreating in helicopters from the rooftop of their embassy, was not anticipated in the Paris Peace Accords of January 1973 that were painstakingly negotiated by Henry Kissinger and North Vietnamese politburo member Le Duc Tho. Read Mor

How Can Negotiations Bring Wars to an End?
By Patrick S. Roberts & Ariel I. Ahram, War on the Rocks: “The peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban raises a lot of questions. The most important question is this — what took so long?"

The U.S. Wants Peace. The Taliban Wants an Emirate.
By Anchal Vohra, Foreign Policy: "At the pyramid-shaped seaside luxury hotel in Doha where the United States and the Taliban signed their long-awaited agreement, the 100 or so black turbans in attendance occasionally fluttered in the wind. The bearded Taliban leaders nonetheless had cheerful looks on their faces. For them, the Americans' agreement to leave Afghanistan, even without any commitment to a cease-fire, was a declaration of victory for their side."

Breaking: CNN's Barbara Starr tweeting this morning: "Two U.S. service members were killed by enemy forces while advising and accompanying Iraqi Security Forces during a mission to eliminate an ISIS terrorist stronghold in a mountainous area of north central Iraq" on Mar 8.Names w/held pending family notification. Twitter

Afghanistan Ready to Attack Taliban if Violence Continues.  Afghanistan’s minister of defense on Sunday announced that, if the Taliban does not cease attacks by the end of the week, they would switch from “defense mode” to attacking the militant group.  “Afghan forces will remain in defense mode until the end of this week under the guidance of President Ashraf Ghani because of the peace agreement, but if the Taliban do not stop their attacks by the end of the week, our troops will target the enemy everywhere,” the minister stated.  The Taliban announced earlier this month that they were resuming attacks on Afghan forces.  Reuters  U.S. and World News Report

Last week, the United States and Taliban signed an agreement to end violence in Afghanistan. Even though violence in Afghanistan did not come to a halt, the agreement follows the same model as last fall’s abandonment of the Syrian Kurds. In a Washington Examiner op-ed, Michael Rubin notes that as Trump’s first term comes to a close, there is one consistency to his foreign policy vision: US allies do not matter. Ending “endless wars” may seem like a compelling, populist slogan, but the agreement signed in Doha no more ends the Afghanistan war than President Trump’s flurry of tweets last autumn ended the Syrian conflict. Read it here.

Mehdi Khalaji writes: Yet even if the regime founders, the damage it has done to Iranian society leaves little hope for a smooth, speedy transition to a democratic, relatively U.S.-friendly state in the near term. […]In all likelihood, then, only a small subset of actors would be willing and able to fill the vacuum that follows the regime’s ultimate collapse—namely, existing factions that already hold the keys to Iran’s military arsenal and prisons. Such a replacement government would hardly choose to denounce the police state from which it was birthed, nor the defiant anti-Western animosity that has been Khamenei’s calling card. – Washington Institute ​

Neville Teller writes: Three basic factors underlie Turkey’s stance in the confused military situation in northwest Syria. The first is that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a Sunni Muslim while Syria’s President Bashar Assad adheres to the Shia branch of Islam. […]This is why Erdogan has been supporting Syria’s anti-government forces, and explains how the opposition have recently brought Assad’s apparently inexorable advance into Idlib Province to a shuddering halt. – Jerusalem Post

Shahla Al-Kli writes: Iraq is likely to remain challenged throughout much of 2020 by a crisis pitting a flagging political establishment against a nascent popular movement. […]Over the next few years, Iraq’s traditional leadership will likely go into “survival mode,” guarding the status quo or making ineffective, incremental changes until the popular protest movement develops more mature leadership and political conduct. Once that happens, the changes will no longer be gradual, but swift and radical. – Middle East Institute ​

Tunisians protest lack of jobs amid COVID-19 pandemic 
Hundreds of Tunisians took to the streets across the country on Thursday demanding jobs amid worsening economic conditions due to the virus-induced lockdown measures. Tunisia’s successive governments following the 2011 uprising have failed to solve the high inflation and rising unemployment rates, currently standing at 15.3%. The protests are the first since Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh’s government was sworn in February, ending months of political paralysis.
Read More  
reuters.com

Tunisian government wins key confidence vote 
Tunisia’s parliament today granted a vote of confidence for a new coalition government headed by Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh, ending months of political paralysis. President Kais Saied had threatened to dissolve parliament and call for early elections if Fakhfakh’s proposed Cabinet lineup failed to win a confidence vote. Parliament's largest party, the moderate Islamist Ennahda, ended up voting in favor of the government despite its earlier opposition after being handed six portfolios.  Read More  
france24.com

ASIA TIMES

​The Trump plan for Afghanistan The U.S. presence provides a better return on investment than most people realize

Iran can obtain nuclear weapons far quicker than widely recognized
Andrea Stricker — Al Arabiya ​

The Classicist: Time To Leave The Middle East?
interview with Victor Davis Hanson via The Classicist
Would America be better off ignoring t

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/01/un-al-qaeda-maintains-close-ties-to-taliban-despite-talks-with-u-s.php

Read Full Article  

Escalation in Syria and Libya tests limits of Erdogan-Putin ties
The recent escalation in Libya and Syria has put on display the limits of the relationship between the Turkish and Russian presidents.
Read More  

What brought Iranian forces to Idlib front?
A number of developments, including Turkey's greater involvement in Syria and the US assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, may be driving Iran's move to get more involved in Idlib battlefield operations.

Escalation in Syria and Libya tests limits of Erdogan-Putin ties
The recent escalation in Libya and Syria has put on display the limits of the relationship between the Turkish and Russian presidents.

​Syrian mercenaries fight Turkey’s battles in Libya
 Though the Free Syrian Army denies it has sent fighters to Libya, hundreds of Syrian fighters are now in Libya after being lured by high salaries.

​Iraqi protests swell despite clash with Sadrist supporters
 When their tents were burned, Iraqi protesters replaced them with concrete structures. And when influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr withdrew his support, even more protesters turned out despite fears of a crackdown by security forces.

For Tunisia, recovery means modernizing economy
Tunisia’s new government faces the formidable task of reversing the economy's downward spiral of the post-revolutionary years with an eye toward becoming a gateway to Africa.

MEET SOLEIMANI'S SUCCESSOR

WINEP’s Mehdi Khalaji: Iranian succession and the impact of Soleimani’s death

WINEP’s Michael Knights: U.S. do’s and don’ts in Iraq

ISIS launches attacks in Africa while Pentagon shifts focus to 'great powers' Russia and China

Tunisia’s largest party rejects proposed government 
Tunisia’s moderate Islamist Ennahda party rejected on Monday a proposal to form a government that excludes other parties and said it was ready to contest new elections. The remarks risk upending a second attempt to create a coalition government since October elections in which Ennahda came in first but failed to impose its candidate for prime minister. Tunisian President Kais Saied instead named former Finance Minister Elyes Fakhfakh to the post last week. Fakhfakh has said he wants to replace recent unity coalitions with a Cabinet of parties “aligned with the values of the revolution,” including Ennahda.
Read More  
reuters.com

Tunisia names ex-finance minister as new prime minister 
Tunisian President Kais Saied named former Finance Minister Elyes Fakhfakh as prime minister on Monday in a bid to end political deadlock in the country. Fakhfakh is tasked with forming a government “as soon as possible,” according to the presidency. Tunisia’s parliament rejected Prime Minister-designate Habib Jemli's proposed government earlier this month. Tunisia’s moderate Islamist Ennahda party had nominated Jemli after coming in first in the Oct. 6 elections.
Read More  
dailymail.co.uk

WINEP’s Aaron Y. Zelin: Tunisia turns a corner against the jihadist movem

Iran’s man in Yemen and the al Houthis
 Katherine Zimmerman | AEIdeas
The Washington Post’s revelation of a second US military operation targeting an Iranian commander in Yemen the same night as the air strike that killed Qassem Soleimani has received far less attention than the spectacular Soleimani strike. But Abdul Reza Shahlai deserves some media love.

Erdoğan's 'Make-Turkey-More-Islamic' Campaign Is a Failure by Burak Bekdil
The Gatestone Institute
January 15, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60310/erdogans-make-turkey-more-islamic-campaign

​From Russia with love: Turkish and Syrian spymasters meet in Moscow
The Moscow meeting between the Turkish and Syrian intelligence chiefs could suggest that a normalization process has finally kicked off between Ankara and Damascus.

Mehdi Khalaji writes: The danger of concentrating so much power in Khamenei’s hands is obvious: what happens when he is gone? Soleimani was an unparalleled alternative authority, someone who likely gave Khamenei peace of mind that the regime could remain stable when the time for transition came around. Even authoritarian regimes benefit from having such safety valves—figures who can offer guidance during times of crisis and expect it to be followed without resorting to coercive measures. Now the prospect of succession likely seems more unnerving to Tehran, and the regime’s future less certain.  – Washington Institute  
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Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou writes: Thus, it seems that the only real effective strategy in Iran’s “harsh revenge” campaign is to increase the human and financial costs of the U.S. presence in the Gulf. To this end, Iran will likely leverage its extensive network of sympathizers and proxies in neighboring countries and beyond to carry out attacks against U.S.-only targets. Not only would this approach be in line with the regime’s ultimate objective, it would also allow the Iranian leadership to make good on its threats incrementally, at the time and location of its choosing. – Middle East Institute

Ali Alfoneh writes: On January 20, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), appointed Brig. Gen. Mohammad Hossein-Zadeh Hejazi as deputy chief of the Qods Force following Brig. Gen. Esmail Qaani’s elevation to the top post. Who is Hejazi, and what was his background prior to his relatively recent involvement with the Qods Force? – Washington Institute ​

Alexa Santry writes: Today looks remarkably similar to that pivotal Obama moment. ISIS’s territorial caliphate is gone and al Qaeda is quiet. So we’re back to the “not worth it” arguments. But a US abandonment of the region would be catastrophic for American allies, credibility, and power. […]Looking back on US involvement in the Middle East over the past several decades, has American policy been flawed? Yes. Have US presidents been “incapable of mustering a consensus or pursuing a consistent policy” in the region? Also yes. But to argue that “few vital interests of the US continue to be at stake” is a misconception that Americans must not accept. –  American Enterprise Institute ​

Anthony H. Cordesman writes: After all, almost all current U.S. and other international peace efforts lack a clear strategy that goes beyond military victory or conflict termination. […]There is no clear effort or plan to produce a stable peace and create both a workable and lasting structure in any country’s governance, security, or economy. Looking for a hidden motive in the lack of a meaningful peace strategy for Afghanistan can easily end in discovering that a motive does not even exist. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​

Baghdad. DaqDuk: visiting Nasrallah in Lebanon. [Ali Mussa Daqduq (علي موسى دقدوق‎) is a senior Hezbollah leader and senior advisor to Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali.] DaqDuk is afraid now that he knows he’s a target; is hiding hither and yon. A slew of upper Iraqis are trying to blame ISIS or Ba'athist remnants for the rocket attack on the US embassy compound.  DaqDuq is keeping all the militia leaders & Nasrallah from killing each other.  Mohandas had primacy over Iraqi operations, but with him gone, you see sporadic attacks around Iraq.