CounterStrikeMedia - CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR

TURKEY, RUSSIA, IRAQ & THE S400: COMPLICATED RELATIONS GOING SOUR FAST & EXAMINING THE LIMTED SCOPE OF RUSSIAN SPECIAL OPERATORS

5/21/2019

Russia’s Special Operations Forces Command and the Strategy of Limited Actions
By Roger N. McDermott, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "Since Moscow’s military intervention in Syria, expert attention has intermittently turned to the role played by Russian special forces in this theater of operations."

Turkish military begins training on S-400 in Russia
Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar has announced that a group of Turkish military specialists has arrived in Russia to receive training on the S-400 missile defense system. Akar added that Ankara has received a new proposal from the United States for its Patriot missile system and is now in talks over price, transfer and joint production. Washington has suspended Turkey's participation in the F-35 fighter jet program over Ankara's pending purchase of the S-400.
Read More

TURKEY, RUSSIA:
Turkey Plans to Manufacture Russia's S-500 Air Defense
By Joseph Trevithick, The WarZone: “Turkish President Recep Erdogan says his country will cooperate on the production of Russia's S-500 surface-to-air missile system, a move that is sure to draw new criticism from the United States and its other fellow NATO members."

Major strategic implications if Iraq gets S-400
(Asia Times) It depends on which Russian publication you believe – TASS or Sputnik – on whether Iraq may be buying the Russian advanced S-400 air-defense system. But no matter whether they buy the system today or tomorrow, it is clear Iraq is heading that way.

IRAQ:
Major Strategic Implications If Iraq Gets S-400
By Stephen Bryen, Asia Times: "It depends on which Russian publication you believe – TASS or Sputnik – on whether Iraq may be buying the Russian advanced S-400 air-defense system. But no matter whether they buy the system today or tomorrow, it is clear Iraq is heading that way."

KILLING OFF THE MULLAH'S AIN'T EASY & WHY THE POST ARAB SPRING IS MESSY FOR ISLAMIC CIVILIZATION

5/20/2019

Iran’s balancing act: Khamenei’s strategic thinking at a critical juncture
Nicholas Carl | AEIdeas

Making Sense of Iranian Escalation
Behnam Ben Taleblu | Senior Fellow

Is the United States going to war with Iran? Probably not. Should the United States go to war with Iran? Probably not. In a Fox News op-ed, Ken Pollack unpacks the current tensions with Iran and explains the potential pitfalls the US should avoid on the road ahead. Pollack writes that the US could easily win a war against Iran, but in winning, we could collapse the Iranian regime, resulting in the same kind of chaos and internal conflict that our failure to prepare for a full-scale reconstruction of Iraq caused there. Read more here.

ICYMI: Following last week’s tensions between the US and Iran, revisit Ken Pollack’sblog series, “Pushback: Countering Iran in an evolving Middle East,” in which he details what a more confrontational US policy toward Iran could look like. Pollack fleshes out his ideas on how best to push back on Iran, beginning with a broad outline of the strategy and closing with a deeper look at its specific facets: the optimal US policy toward Syria, Iraq, the nuclear agreement, and regime change. Learn more here.

With US-Iran tensions at an all-time high, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is in a precarious situation. In an AEIdeas blog, Nicholas Carl explains that for both domestic and regional reasons, the Tehran regime needs to push back against Trump with strength and resolve. At the same time, Tehran must assuage European concerns over Iranian aggression in Syria, Yemen, and beyond and keep key European nations on board with the nuclear deal. The Iranian regime is juggling these interests, and one wrong move could be catastrophic. Finish reading here.

The Resilience of the Arab World’s ‘Pouvoir’
By Shlomo Ben-Ami, The Strategist (ASPI): "Eight years after the Arab Spring, dreams of democracy in the Arab world have been dashed by the harsh reality of autocracy, corruption and military rule. Yet Algeria and Sudan, neither of which was swept up in the 2011 turmoil, are now trying their luck at challenging the often-surreptitious powers that be—what Algerian demonstrators back in 1988 dubbed le pouvoir (‘the power’). Will Arab democracy movements fare any better this time?"

Iran's Proxy Armies Become a Regime Liability
By Austin Bay, Strategy Page: "Though loath to admit it, the Iranian regime recognizes its conventional military inferiority compared to its many adversaries, particularly Israel, the U.S. and Turkey. So, the ayatollahs use proxy war, covert attacks and terror strikes to rattle their adversaries and frustrate the great powers (like the U.S.) that seek regional stability."

Iran bluster is about red lines, not war
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

The missing piece in Trump’s 'maximum pressure' Iran campaign
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

ASSAD'S REGIME ON THE ROPES AGAIN & SUDAN BREAKS THROUGH AN ABORTIVE ARAB SPRING

5/20/2019

Assad’s forces battle jihadists for key terrain in Latakia
The Turkistan Islamic Party, "Incite the Believers" operations room and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham are all battling Bashar al-Assad's loyalists in Latakia, Syria.

Sudan On The Cusp Of Democratic Change
by Larry Diamond, Anne Pence, Mohamed Abubakr via The American Interest
Larry Diamond is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and Stanford University. Anne Pence was G7/G8 policy advisor at the State Department, senior advisor to the US MCC, a USAID Mission economist in Sudan and is on the Advisory Board of the African Middle Eastern Leadership Project (AMEL). Mohamed Abubakr, a Sudanese human rights activist, is President of AMEL.

PAKISTAN GETS ITS 22ND BAILOUT FROM IMF

5/17/2019

Pakistan on a Tightrope
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, May 19, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Pakistan risks falling off a tightrope as it attempts to balance its relations with rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Continue to full article ->

ADDRESSING PAKISTANS ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

ASIA TIMES

ASIA TIMES

Al-Qaeda elements are seen in parts of Afghanistan: Miller
(TOLO News) The U.S. and NATO Forces Commander in Afghanistan Gen. Scott Miller has said that there are some indications about the movements of al-Qaeda elements in some parts of Afghanistan but gave no details about the nature of these movements.

HOW BIN LADEN WAS A LATECOMER TO ISLAMISM

5/17/2019

ASIA TIMES

US commander confirms: al Qaeda operating ‘across’ Afghanistan
Al Qaeda is operating "across the country" and not confined to one region, the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan said.

Peace in Afghanistan?
By Robert J. Felderman, RealClearDefense: "No amount of money will make a difference if Afghans don’t possess the skills to put the aid to good use. This is where the State Partnership Program (SPP) comes in."

NETANYAHU SEEKS IMMUNITY FROM PROSECUTION

5/17/2019

ASIA TIMES

Likud member breaks with Netanyahu over immunity bill
Israeli opposition lawmakers praised Knesset member Gideon Saar on Thursday for breaking ranks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on a bill that would grant him immunity from prosecution while in office. Although Saar is from Netanyahu’s Likud Party, the two men have frequently clashed. Netanyahu has been working to advance a bill that would allow him to avoid prosecution in three pending corruption cases.
Read More 

HOW THE SATANIC MULLAH'S IN IRAN WILL FALL: MICHAEL LEDEED EXPLAINS & NIGERIA, HOUTHI'S HEAT UP SAUDI ARABIA

5/16/2019

What to do with the crown jewels of Iran’s nuclear program

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/273722/mullah-panic-michael-ledeen

Is war with Iran imminent? Here's the real truth
Kenneth Pollack | Fox News
It is unlikely that the US will find itself in a war with Iran in the near term because both sides are eager to avoid one. Although some of President Trump’s advisers may welcome a clash with Tehran, he has consistently made clear that he wants to end American wars in the Middle East, not start new ones.

Yemen’s Houthis claim drone strikes on Saudi pipeline
The confirmed use of armed drones to target major oil pipelines deep within Saudi Arabia represents a major increase in the Houthis capabilities.

Deadly Niger ambush claimed by the Islamic State
The jihadist group also claimed an assault on a high-security prison near the capital of Niamey.

TALIBAN HOOKS UP WITH AL-QAEDA, CAN THE US ESCAPE THE MIDDLE EAST & US CARRIER GROUP TO THE PERSIAN GULF

5/13/2019

Al Qaeda video emphasizes unity with Taliban’s Islamic emirate
Al Qaeda has released a new video emphasizing its unity with the Taliban's Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The video features a joint Taliban-al Qaeda ambush on an Afghan army convoy in Paktika province.

The U.S. Can't Escape the Middle East
By Lara Seligman, Foreign Policy: "Almost 16 months ago, then-U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis initiated a course correction for the Pentagon. After 17 years of war in the Middle East, great power competition with Russia and China, not terrorism, would be the priority."

The Muslim Brotherhood and terrorism
Danielle Pletka | AEIdeas
Should the US designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization? Experts use Twitter to weigh in on the debate.

When terror runs in the family
Jessica Trisko Darden | AEIdeas

A New Strategy to Counter Iran’s Growing Power
Omar Hossino Obama’s attempt to make Tehran an ally against ISIS has backfired. Trump needs to ditch that approach to keep Iran in check and prevent an ISIS resurgence. Read More

B-52s, Patriots, F-35s and More: America's Mideast Deployment Rundown
by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
May 12, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58501/americas-mideast-deployment-rundown

MARTIN KRAMER EXAMINES THE RISE OF ISRAEL IN THREE ACTS & REVIEW OF US IRANIAN POLICY VIA OMAN

5/9/2019

MARTIN KRAMER

From Ben-Gurion to Netanyahu: The Evolution of Israel’s National Security Strategy
Jacob Nagel | Visiting FellowJonathan Schanzer | Senior Vice President for Research

Up for Debate: U.S.-Iran policy
Mark Dubowitz — Middle East Institute
So far, US policy seems to be working, albeit unevenly. The Trump administration has pursued an Iran policy based on the use of all instruments of national power — economic, diplomatic, and military deterrence — to stop Tehran from engaging in a wide array of aggressive and malign behaviors that defy global norms. So far, it seems to be working, albeit unevenly. The most successful part of the strategy has been the reinstatement of sanctions... Read more

Carrier strike group deployment offers opportunity to sharpen Iran policy
Behnam Ben Taleblu and Bradley Bowman — The Hill
Iran will continue to utilize asymmetric or “gray zone” tactics as long as it believes it can do so with relative impunity. However, when confronted with strength, Iran has often backed-down. Indeed, under the Trump administration, naval harassment of American vessels by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is reportedly decreasing. To explain its de-escalation to a domestic audience, the regime has twisted itself into rhetorical knots... Read more

Oman in the Middle Muscat’s Balancing Act Between Iran and America
Jonathan Schanzer | Senior Vice President for ResearchNicole Salter | Project Manager

Up for Debate: U.S.-Iran policy
So far, US policy seems to be working, albeit unevenly.
Mark Dubowitz | Chief Executive

RUSSIANS BEGINS BOMBING SYRIA. . . AGAIN & SECRETARY OF STATE GOES TO IRAQ

5/8/2019

Al Qaeda-linked operations room counterattacks as bombs fall in northern Syria
The Assad regime and Russia have stepped up their bombing campaign in northwestern Syria in recent weeks. The al Qaeda-linked "Incite the Believers" operations room has counterattacked with a series of operations.

"What the Iraq War tells us about Iran,"Col. (Ret.) Frank Sobchak and Bradley Bowman, The Hill

US POLICY IN PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN. . . ITS EVOLVING

5/7/2019

ASIA TIMES

The Anglo-Russian rivalry (called the Great Game) precipitated the Second Anglo-Afghan War. Afghanistan was of strategic importance to the British in the defence of their Indian Empire, and the prevention of the spreading influence of Russia. They favoured a Forward Policy of extending India's frontiers to the Hindu Kush and gaining control over Afghanistan. In 1878 Sher Ali, who for the majority of his reign kept good terms with the British, was devastated by the death of his favourite son and his court was in disarray. The British were trying to establish a permanent mission at Kabul which Sher Ali, trying to keep a balance between the Russians and British, would not permit. The arrival of a Russian diplomatic mission in Kabul increased British suspicions of Russian influence and ultimately led to the Second Afghan War. The British undertook a three-pronged drive into Afghanistan, held the Khyber Pass and defeated the Amir's forces. Appointing his son Yakub Khan as regent, Sher Ali fled from his capital to take refuge in Russian Turkestan but died at Mazhar-e-Sharif on 21 February 1879. Yakub had to agree to the Treaty of Gandamak, whereby Afghanistan ceded to the British control of its foreign affairs, and the Khyber and Michni Passes, and allowed British representatives in Kabul and other locations.

This photograph of the Amir actually dates from 1869 from the Ambala Durbar when he first entered into negotiations with the British. Burke reused it as part of the introduction to his Afghan War catalogue.

MAKING SENSE OF PALESTINIAN LOGIC & WHY DID US EXTEND NUCLEAR TRANSFERS TO IRAN?

5/7/2019

Making Sense of Palestinian Logic by Daniel Pipes
National Review Online
May 4, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58404/making-sense-of-palestinian-logic

THE SAUDI'S KEEP EXPORTING TERRORISM ABROAD & TURKEY WILL LOSE WITH S400 BID

5/5/2019

Wall Street may be returning to Saudi Arabia, but it’s not back to business as usual
Varsha Koduvayur | Senior Research Analyst

It’s Time for Saudi Arabia to Stop Exporting Extremism
Trump should not waste his opportunity to begin repairing Wahhabism’s trail of wreckage.
John Hannah | Senior Counselor

Ankara’s realignment with Russia will cost Turkey more than it thinks
Merve Tahiroglu and Greg Everett — The Hill
Washington’s deadline for Turkey to abandon its plans to purchase the S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system from Russia is fast approaching, with little progress. Fiercely defending his purchase of the missile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is accelerating Turkey’s strategic shift away from NATO. The costs of this shift are much larger than Turkey’s leaders are willing to admit — and not only on the country’s defense sector, but also its energy sector... Read more

Wall Street may be returning to Saudi Arabia, but it’s not back to business as usual
Varsha Koduvayur — CNN Business
Despite the concerns of many firms, it’s unclear whether Mohammed bin Salman realizes — or cares — how serious a blow the kingdom’s image has taken. Western firms that do business with Saudi Arabia may face a Sisyphean challenge when trying to protect their reputations after every new outrage. Under such conditions, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to get the buy-in it wants from the business community... Read more

CHINA'S PLAN FOR THE MIDDLE EAST, THE SUDANESE COUP & GETTING OUT OF YEMEN

5/3/2019

China and the Sudan Coup By Roie Yellinek, May 2, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: On April 11, 2019, Sudan’s long reigning president Omar Bashir was overthrown in a military coup after 30 years at the helm. China, one of his staunchest supporters, must now assess how to maintain its relationship with the African nation, which lies on a critical spot on the prospective Belt and Road route.
Continue to full article ->

Arab Power Struggles Are Alive and Well
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, May 10, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Libya’s battle for Tripoli alongside ongoing mass anti-government demonstrations that toppled autocratic leaders of Algeria and Sudan demonstrate that the popular Arab protests that in 2011 forced four presidents out of office – as well as the counterrevolution it provoked – are alive and kicking.
Continue to full article ->

Sudan army rejects civilian majority in ruling council
(BBC) A top official in Sudan's military council has told the BBC it will not allow civilians a majority on the supreme council set to rule the country during a transitional period.

A real plan to end the war in Yemen
Kenneth Pollack, Barbara Walter, and Michael Knights | Foreign Affairs
Of all the options before the United States, ending support to Saudi Arabia is the one that is least likely to stop the killing, dying, and complications for US interests.

Brett McGurk writes: China is making a risky bet in the Middle East. By focusing on economic development and adhering to the principle of noninterference in internal affairs, Beijing believes it can deepen relations with countries that are otherwise nearly at war with one another—all the while avoiding any significant role in the political affairs of the region. This is likely to prove naive, particularly if U.S. allies begin to stand up for their interests. – Defense One

EGYPT MOVES AHEAD WITH NUCLEAR POWER & IMF LOAN

5/1/2019

Egypt presses ahead with nuclear power
Egypt's al-Dabaa site in the northern Marsa Matrouh governorate has won permits to begin construction for the country's first nuclear power station.

No one in the sun -and gas- soaked Middle East needs nuclear power
M ark Dubowitz and Henry Sokolski — Washington Examiner
Wednesday’s decision by the Islamic Republic of Iran to break the restrictions of the Iran nuclear deal is a further reminder that neither Iran, nor for that matter Saudi Arabia, needs nuclear power. Nor, for that matter, does any other state in the gas-soaked, sun-drenched Middle East, where civil nuclear programs are simply nuclear bomb starter kits. Instead of straining to control these programs, or even facilitating them, the U.S. should encourage less risky, cheaper, clean non-nuclear alternatives.... Read more

After finalizing IMF loan, Egypt’s reforms target industrialization, exports
An IMF mission, currently in Cairo to review Egypt’s economic reform program under a $12 billion loan, is focusing on the country’s plan to launch structural reforms, targeting the industrial and export sectors.

PROGRESS IN THE LONG WAR EXAMINED

5/1/2019

The Iranian Government's 40 Years of Hatred Towards America by Majid Rafizadeh

AEI: CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Salafi-jihadi groups such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State use both coercion and persuasion to gain support from vulnerable populations. In a Critical Threats Project analysis, Emily Estelle shows how Ansar al Islam’s activities in northern Burkina Faso exemplify how Salafi-jihadi groups exploit conditions of poor governance and conflict. Because of this exploitation, communities under pressure accept and sometimes support the Salafi-jihadi presence as a means of survival even when they do not accept the groups’ ideology. Read more here

Examining the Global Terrorism Landscape
Bill Roggio testifies before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa and International Terrorism, and examines the global terrorism landscape.

Baghdadi outlines path forward for Islamic State post-caliphate
(The Associated Press) No longer burdened by territory and administration, Islamic State group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi outlined the new path forward for his group: Widen your reach, connect with far-flung militant groups and exhaust your enemies with a “war of attrition.”

Chaos in Sudan and the rest of North Africa threatens all of us
Emily Estelle | Los Angeles Times
The US administration is turning away from Africa at a time when more engagement is crucial.

LIBYA: GENERALS VS. ISLAMISTS

4/30/2019

Libya's Coming Forever War: Why Backing One Militia Against Another Is Not the Solution by Frederic Wehrey and Emadeddin Badi

Libyan government presses US to block Gulf support for Tripoli offensive
The UN-backed Government of National Accord is lobbying Washington to halt Khalifa Hifter’s offensive on Tripoli by denying him arms from Gulf Arab states.

Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar's forces will launch a renewed push to seize Tripoli this month, leading to protracted fighting and a humanitarian crisis.
- Al Qaeda and the Islamic State will thrive amidst the fighting.

Generals vs Islamists in Libyaby Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
April 24, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58334/generals-vs-islamists-in-libya

Libyan forces push Hifter's army back in southern Tripoli
Forces loyal to Libya’s internationally recognized government appeared to push back Khalifa Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) in house-to-house fighting in southern Tripoli on Sunday. The fighting comes as four people were killed and 20 others were wounded in air raids on the capital a day earlier. Hifter's forces have been leading a three-week offensive on Tripoli that has killed at least 278 people. This weekend's air strikes came as the LNA said it had dispatched a warship to Ras Lanuf, a major oil port, to secure the country’s oil facilities. Read More 

"Al Qaeda and the Islamic State will be the winners of the Libyan civil war".

What Russia makes of Hifter's offensive on Tripoli
Russia has positioned itself as an impartial middleman in the Libyan crisis, but there's a fine blueprint that defines this position.

INDIA COUNTERS CHINA'S GRAND AMBITIONS ABOUT BELT AND ROADS

4/26/2019

ASIA TIMES

IRAN REVEALS NEW IRGC COMMANDER

4/26/2019

Tehran appoints new IRGC chief commander
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Hossein Salami as the new chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on April 21, replacing Mohammad Ali Jafari after 12 years in command. Salami previously served as deputy commander to Jafari for a decade.

Hossein Salami The New Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps
Read more Full document in PDF format

U.S., IRAN:
Why Iran-U.S. Confrontation May Intensify Under New IRGC Commander
By Saeid Jafari, Al-Monitor: "Iran replaced the commander of its powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) less than two weeks after the United States designated it a "foreign terrorist organization." Given the wider global agenda advanced by the new IRGC commander, the replacement is a clear signal from Tehran that bowing to Washington's pressure is not an option."

THE BATTLE OF AFGHANISTAN & PLOT TWISTS FOR MBS TO MOUNT THE THRONE

4/25/2019

Khalilzad flip flops on Pakistan, Taliban’s relationship with al Qaeda
In his testimony to Congress in July 2016, Zalmay Khalilzad called for designating Pakistan a State Sponsor of Terrorism for its support of the Taliban, noted the enduring Taliban-al Qaeda alliance. Today he praises Pakistan for its desire for peace in Afghanistan and claims the Taliban will be an effective counterterrorism partner.

The Battle of Afghanistan “Fundamentally, war is a contest of wills.”
Clifford D. May | Founder & President

Simon Henderson writes: One ‎monarch, Saud, was forced to abdicate in 1964 under family pressure. The next, Faisal, was assassinated in 1975 ‎by a nephew. King Khalid followed, but he was just a figurehead. And so on until the thirty-three-year-old ‎phenomenon known as MbS, a modernizer who has quickly gained notoriety for his reckless administrative ‎style. Whether he ultimately ascends the throne will entail plenty of plot twists, but it also holds serious ‎implications for the kingdom, the future of the region, and U.S. interests. – Washington Institute

It’s getting harder to track US progress in Afghanistan
(Defense One) It’s getting harder and harder for the public to track the U.S. military’s progress in its 17-year war in Afghanistan, the special inspector general for Afghan reconstruction warned Wednesday ahead of the release of his latest quarterly report.

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
U.S. Employs Unprecedented Number of Security Contractors in Afghanistan
By Paul D. Shinkman, U.S. News & World Report: "More than 5,800 privately employed security personnel are currently operating in Afghanistan under Pentagon contracts, according to the latest report released this month that the military headquarters overseeing Middle East wars compiles for Congress."

An Afghan peace on whose terms?
(The Diplomat) Peace talks are predicated on the notion that the Taliban have fundamentally changed. They haven’t.

SRI LANKA HIT WITH IMPORTED TERROR SQUAD

4/24/2019

Krishnadev Calamur writes: When Sri Lanka’s brutal civil war ended in an equally brutal fashion a decade ago, there was hope that the island nation could leave its past behind. The Easter Sunday bombings, the first attacks of this scale since the war, are a reminder of how fragile the peace the nation achieved really is. The attacks on churches and hotels, which killed more than 200 people, came at a crucial juncture: The country is still struggling to reconcile its past while building a new future. – The Atlantic

The Sri Lanka Church Bombings: The Saudi Pestilence Spreads

arab_regimes_are_the_world’s_most_powerful_islamophobes_–_foreign_policy.pdf
File Size:	99 kb
File Type:	pdf

ALGERIA SACKS HEAD OF NATIONAL OIL COMPANY & ITS FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR A NEW ARAB SPRING

4/24/2019

The Resilience of the Arab World's Pouvoir
Shlomo Ben-Ami shows why the forces pushing for political change in Algeria and Sudan could go the way of their predecessors.

The US administration is turning away from Africa at a time when more engagement is crucial, writes Emily Estelle in a Los Angeles Times op-ed. The oustings of Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmad Bashir and Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika last month are part of a wave of conflict engulfing northern Africa and posing grave risks to stability in the region and beyond. The discord is likely to produce major new refugee flows and increase the potential for a dramatic expansion of the Islamic State and al Qaeda in northern Africa. Learn more here.

Algeria’s protesters vie for uncertain legacy
Although weekslong protests in Algeria managed to dislodge the president and regime-linked figures, many challenges lie ahead still.

Algeria’s army moves from arbiter to central player in politics
The protests have thrust Algeria’s behind-the-scenes kingmaker into an unwelcome limelight.

ASIA TIMES: ALGERIA

Protesters rally in Algeria against ruling class for 10th Friday
reuters.com

Algeria sacks head of state-owned oil company
Algeria’s interim President Abdelkader Bensalah fired the head of state-owned oil giant Sonatrach on Tuesday. Abdelmoumen Ould Kaddour, who is close to former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, was replaced by Rachid Hachichi. Meanwhile thousands of students took to the streets of Algiers on Tuesday demanding the trial of figures linked to Bouteflika's two-decade-long regime. Authorities on Monday arrested five of the country’s wealthiest businessmen as part of an anti-graft investigation. Read More

"Algeria's Future: What Follows Bouteflika?"

SMALL WARS JOURNAL EXAMINES THE HISTORY OF THE LONG WAR & TALIBAN WALK OUT OF TALKS

4/22/2019

Bringing the Air Division Back to the Future
By Mike Pietrucha & Jeremy Renken, War on the Rocks: “The scope of changes that the U.S. Air Force must undertake to meet the direction of the National Defense Strategy is difficult to overstate. Recent clear-eyed assessments of threats from great powers like Russia and China, combined with the opportunity to reduce U.S. military investment in the Middle East has given the service’s planners a window of opportunity to let intentional design, rather than events, drive how it organizes, trains, equips, and presents its force."

Panel: Political end to Afghan War is risky but necessary
(USNI News) Talks between the United States and the Taliban over Afghanistan’s future remain risky but necessary to reach a political settlement to end decades of war, a leading expert in South Asia security affairs said Monday.

IRAQI FEDERALISM BEGINS IN BASRA: HOW TO HIT THE IRANIAN MULLAH'S WHILE SOLIDIFYING IRAQI SOVEREIGNTY & IRAN REPLACES IRGC CHIEF

4/22/2019

ASIA TIMES

ASIA TIMES

LIBYA: TRUMP'S LAST CHANGE TO END THE ENDLESS WAR & EGYPTIAN-US BILATERAL RELATIONS

4/20/2019

"Al Qaeda and the Islamic State will be the winners of the Libyan civil war".

Libya Is Trump’s Latest Chance to End An ‘Endless War’
By Bonnie Kristian, RealClearDefense: “This evacuation allows us to recognize that however well-intended, U.S. military intervention in Libya has done more harm than good."

France's Double Game in Libya
By Paul Taylor, Politico EU: “Like the police captain in “Casablanca” feigning outrage at gambling in Rick’s Café before being handed his winnings, France was “shocked, shocked” to find that the Libyan generalissimo whose forces it has covertly helped arm and train was marching on Tripoli."

Tunisia, Egypt host Libya talks as Hifter's forces slow push on Tripoli
UN envoy Ghassan Salame met on Monday with Tunisian Foreign Minister Khemaies Jhinaoui during a visit to Tunis to discuss the crisis in neighboring Libya. UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the two stressed the need to reach a political solution to end the crisis. Meanwhile, Egypt is hosting two emergency meetings today on the situations in Sudan and Libya. African leaders will focus on “relaunching a political process … [and] the elimination of terrorism” in Libya, the Egyptian presidency said. The spurt of diplomacy comes as eastern commander Khalifa Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army appeared to slow down its push on the capital Tripoli this week as the civilian toll in the fighting has topped 264 deaths and more than 32,000 civilians have been displaced. Read More 

Libyan leader slams France for supporting rival 'dictator' al-monitor.com

U.S., LIBYA:
Trump Backed Haftar's Attack on Tripoli, U.S. Officials Say
By Samer Al-Atrush & Jennifer Jacobs & Margaret Talev, Bloomberg: “President Donald Trump indicated in a phone call with Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar last week that the U.S. supported an assault on the country's capital to depose its United Nations-backed government, according to American officials familiar with the matter."

AFRICA'S POST COLONIAL ERA ENDING
File Size:	156 kb
File Type:	pdf

AFRICAN ARAB SPRING

AFRICAN ARAB SPRING
File Size:	786 kb
File Type:	pdf

ISHMAEL IS NOT FATHER OF ARABS

ISHMAEL NOT FATHER OF ARAB CIVILIZATION
File Size:	995 kb
File Type:	pdf

DEFEATING SECTARIANISM IN MIDDLE EAST

rand_rb10052.pdf
File Size:	856 kb
File Type:	pdf

SECULARISM, NATIONALISM, ISLAMISM: MAKING MODERN MIDDLE EAST
File Size:	95 kb
File Type:	pdf

terrorism-tactics-and-transformation.pdf
File Size:	1422 kb
File Type:	pdf

CHANGING DYNAMICS OF SALAFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS

FOREIGN AFFAIRS - THE ARAB SPRING @ 5
File Size:	15719 kb
File Type:	pdf

BIN SALMAN & THE REFORM OF SAUDI ARABIA
File Size:	83 kb
File Type:	pdf

NATIONAL INTEREST, ARAB SPRING
File Size:	207 kb
File Type:	pdf

FOLLOWING VISION 2030

MEF RADIO LIVE

SECTARIANISM MIDDLE EAST.pdf
File Size:	1462 kb
File Type:	pdf

THE PAKISTAN READER

ARAB SPRING & POLITICAL REFORM
File Size:	11836 kb
File Type:	pdf

ISRAELI NEWS NETWORK

THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM

250 YEARS OF AMERICAN IRREGULAR WAR

AEI - CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT: SALIFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS GROWING

ABBAS MILANI HOOVER PAGE: IRAN & U.S. RELATIONS

HOOVER INSTITUTION BLOG ON THE NEAR EAST

JEWISH INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY OF AMERICA

FATA PAKISTAN RESEARCH CENTER

ISRAELI NUCLEAR POSTURE & DOCTRINES

CONTAIN, DEGRADE, DEFEAT: PLAN FOR MIDDLE EAST

THE PLAN TO DEFEAT THE ISLAMIC STATE & al-QAEDA

CENTER FOR SECURITY, REGIONAL STUDIES, KABUL

AfPak POLICY OPTIONS

ISLAMISM & INTERNATIONAL ORDER

HOOVER INSTITUTION PUBLICATION ON U.S. NEAR EAST POLICY

Israeli Security & Gulf States

PRINCIPALS GUIDING US POLICY IN MIDDLE EAST

HOW ISRAEL WINS

FREE BOOKS ON MIDDLE EAST

AEI: GLOBAL JIHADI THREAT & BEYOND

HOOVER: OPERATIONAL GUIDE FOR THE LONG WAR

THE ETTINGER REPORT: U.S. ISRAELI RELATIONS

GOOGLE NEWS PAKISTAN

HOW TO WIN WORLD WAR IV

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE LONG WAR

Archives

May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
September 2015

Categories

WASH. INSTITUTE NEAR EAST POLICY

BROOKINGS

TAHRIR INSTITUTE MIDDLE EAST POLICY

MIDDLE EAST FORUM

BELFER CENTER

Tweets by WilliamHolland

Tweets by LongWarJournal