Eli Lake writes: There is no single event that has caused Iran’s current loss of influence in Iraq. Nationwide protests against corruption and Iranian influence, as well as internal strife within and among Iranian-backed militias, helped Kadhimi’s rise. At the same time, Soleimani’s death was a factor. […]If that’s true, it’s a positive development — not just for Iraq but for the entire Middle East. – Bloomber
Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write: Despite worsening political acrimony, Kadhimi maintains broad Sunni and Kurdish support in Parliament and will likely be able to satisfy enough Shi’a blocs to ascend to the office of prime minister with a partial cabinet. Because of their shared interest in Kadhimi’s success, Iran and the US confined their competition to other lines of effort ahead of the June US-Iraq strategic dialogue, thereby creating enough space for Iraq’s political elites to negotiate government formation. – Institute for the Study of War
Five Priorities for the U.S.-Iraq Strategic Dialogue
Include Recognizing Regional Role for Iraq
From Al-Monitor: “Kadhimi benefits from strong ties with all of Iraq's constituencies and power centers, as well as the goodwill of Washington, Tehran, the Gulf and all key regional capitals."
Include Recognizing Regional Role for Iraq
From Al-Monitor: “Kadhimi benefits from strong ties with all of Iraq's constituencies and power centers, as well as the goodwill of Washington, Tehran, the Gulf and all key regional capitals."
Don’t let ‘strategic dialogue’ sink Iraq
Michael Rubin | RealClearDefense
To simply repeat in Iraq the precipitous withdrawals Trump ordered in Syria and Afghanistan and President Obama oversaw in Iraq will empower Iran and undercut the most competent leadership team postwar Iraq has had.
Michael Rubin | RealClearDefense
To simply repeat in Iraq the precipitous withdrawals Trump ordered in Syria and Afghanistan and President Obama oversaw in Iraq will empower Iran and undercut the most competent leadership team postwar Iraq has had.
UN report finds evidence of Russian mercenaries deployed in Libya
United Nations experts confirmed that a Russian private military contractor has recruited between 800 and 1,200 mercenaries to fight alongside Libya’s eastern military strongman Khalifa Hifter, according to a report obtained by the Associated Press. The panel of experts monitoring sanctions against Libya said the Wagner Group, which is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has mainly recruited Syrian fighters. This was the first UN confirmation of claims that Hifter is supported by hundreds of Russian mercenaries in his offensive against the UN-backed government in Tripoli, which in turn is supported by Syrian fighters recruited by Turkey.
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apnews.com
United Nations experts confirmed that a Russian private military contractor has recruited between 800 and 1,200 mercenaries to fight alongside Libya’s eastern military strongman Khalifa Hifter, according to a report obtained by the Associated Press. The panel of experts monitoring sanctions against Libya said the Wagner Group, which is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has mainly recruited Syrian fighters. This was the first UN confirmation of claims that Hifter is supported by hundreds of Russian mercenaries in his offensive against the UN-backed government in Tripoli, which in turn is supported by Syrian fighters recruited by Turkey.
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apnews.com
The U.S.-Iraqi Relationship Is Coming to a Head—and That’s a Good Thing
After 17 years, there is little love left between Washington and Baghdad. Upcoming talks may be the last opportunity to save their dysfunctional partnership.
After 17 years, there is little love left between Washington and Baghdad. Upcoming talks may be the last opportunity to save their dysfunctional partnership.
Jeremy Hodge writes: Moscow’s inability to control Iranian backed Syrian militiamen engaged in widespread crime, corruption, and assaults on Russian forces has infuriated the Kremlin. But Russia is not the only major player on the ground with scores to settle against Iran, and the Russian military leadership in Syria has ignored if not largely encouraged Israeli strikes on Iranian troops throughout the country. […]Ironically, Erdoğan’s long-held desire to overthrow Syria’s president may still come to fruition, albeit not as he expected, as Assad’s ouster may come at the hands of Russia itself, and not the revolution. – The Daily Beast
Will Todman writes: Extremist groups would benefit from increased instability in Syria. They have already used Covid-19 to their rhetorical advantage to the detriment of the United States’ reputation in the region. Non-state actors in the Middle East, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, have filled gaps in state services to gain influence. […]Finally, the centralization of aid in Damascus would further degrade the principle of unimpeded humanitarian access and undermine U.S. leadership on the issue. This precedent could carry implications for humanitarian operations in other conflict areas. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Will Todman writes: Extremist groups would benefit from increased instability in Syria. They have already used Covid-19 to their rhetorical advantage to the detriment of the United States’ reputation in the region. Non-state actors in the Middle East, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, have filled gaps in state services to gain influence. […]Finally, the centralization of aid in Damascus would further degrade the principle of unimpeded humanitarian access and undermine U.S. leadership on the issue. This precedent could carry implications for humanitarian operations in other conflict areas. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Michael Rubin writes: Optimists may hope that Erdogan’s defeat in Istanbul last year signals that Turks can reclaim their country and that democracy can still check Erdogan’s desire to rule for life and perhaps turn the reins of power over to his son or son-in-law. But the lesson Erdogan appears to have taken is not that he must listen to the people, but rather, he must punish Istanbul and become more ruthless in weeding out political opposition, real or imagined. – Washington Examiner
Seth J. Frantzman writes: In the past, Iran has used Turkey to get around US sanctions and Iran has even sought to use Turkey as a transit for goods destined for the Syrian regime and Hezbollah. Much of that has changed during the Syrian civil war, but Iran’s overall goal in the region is to work with Turkey to divide up the Middle East. – Jerusalem Post
Seth J. Frantzman writes: In the past, Iran has used Turkey to get around US sanctions and Iran has even sought to use Turkey as a transit for goods destined for the Syrian regime and Hezbollah. Much of that has changed during the Syrian civil war, but Iran’s overall goal in the region is to work with Turkey to divide up the Middle East. – Jerusalem Post
Benjamin Weil writes: Enforcing counterterrorism laws and laws regarding the funding of terrorist organizations are also crucial. […]If we let Hezbollah gain more power and influence in Lebanon it would lead to greater conflicts across the Middle East. Alternatively, if we wait to bail out the country at a point where Hezbollah is already too strong, Hezbollah might get the credit for the financial recovery – this will only fuel the organization’s credibility in the minds of the people. Much like the coronavirus, we must act now and act hard before we lose control of the situation. – Jerusalem Post
Danielle Pletka writes: Long story short, Lebanon’s slow-motion collapse promises repercussions few can bother contemplating when minds are focused on pandemic-related foreign policy. But the notion that the erstwhile Lebanese state is soon to become a hybrid Iranian-Chinese bot from which all with means flee, and to which all with malign aims flock, seems a catastrophe worth minding. If not, Lebanon promises to join the ranks of Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and others in becoming yet another nexus of global threat and local misery. – The Dispatch
Danielle Pletka writes: Long story short, Lebanon’s slow-motion collapse promises repercussions few can bother contemplating when minds are focused on pandemic-related foreign policy. But the notion that the erstwhile Lebanese state is soon to become a hybrid Iranian-Chinese bot from which all with means flee, and to which all with malign aims flock, seems a catastrophe worth minding. If not, Lebanon promises to join the ranks of Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and others in becoming yet another nexus of global threat and local misery. – The Dispatch
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