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centcom & The long war

Iran Gains Infantry in Yemen, The Limits of Air Power in War

1/31/2017

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  • A lesson for Trump’s security team in deadly Yemen raid
Chris Kolenda:  Kolenda Associates on Yemen War, Counter-Insurgency
Special operations like this have always been risky for presidents to approve. Trump and some of his advisers have already promised to give the military greater rein in authorizing such missions as part of their desire to wipe out extremist threats. But the president has also said he is leery of getting entangled too deeply in costly operations overseas. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint
Political Airpower, Part III: Boots Off the Ground
From Mike Benitez & Mike Pietrucha, War on the Rocks: “The playbook has become well-worn, mainstream, and almost mundane in repetition: Collect intelligence, work the way up the hierarchy of leadership, then use an airstrike to decapitate some lieutenant, shadow governor, or other high value individual.  On a tactical scale, we succeeded in removing some valuable and capable pieces from the board.  These minor victories serve a critical nonmilitary purpose — allowing leadership and the public to view the Long War though “victory-tinted lenses” that tend to keep the politics of warfare (and the metrics of success) within the news cycle.  However, from a strategic viewpoint, even an effort that we declare to be tactically successful may not have been effective at all in inching closer to victory in battle or resolution of conflict.” ​
Female fighters were among the roughly 14 Qaeda militants killed in an American commando raid in central Yemen over the weekend, the Pentagon said on Monday, seeking to explain a number of reports that civilians died in the nearly hourlong firefight. – New York Times
 
Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched a rare suicide attack on a Saudi frigate in the Red Sea on Monday, killing two crew members and leaving three others wounded, according to the Saudi Arabia-led military coalition fighting against them. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
The Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen and Houthi Shiite rebels may have committed war crimes in the conflict that is wracking the Middle East's poorest nation with no end in sight, U.N. experts said in a new report. – Associated Press
 
Yemen has lost a decade's worth of gains in public health as a result of war and economic crisis, with increasing numbers of children succumbing to malnutrition, the United Nations' Children's Fund (UNICEF) said on Tuesday. - Reuters
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New Israeli Discovery

1/31/2017

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Israel approved 3,000 more housing units in the occupied West Bank late Tuesday, the largest number in a wave of new construction plans that defy the international community and that open a forceful phase in the country’s expansion into land the Palestinians claim for a future state. – New York Times
 
Thousands of Israeli police and military forces climbed a windy hill on Wednesday with plans to finally demolish a hardscrabble Israeli settlement that the supreme court has deemed illegal because it was built on privately owned Palestinian land. – Washington Post
 
Flagging Israel as a global cyber power “right up there” behind the United States, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he will propose augmented bilateral cybersecurity cooperation when he meets with President Donald Trump in mid-Feburary. – Defense News
 
An official Israeli government timeline of milestones leading up to an estimated €500 million (US $539.51 million) naval contract with Germany shows how Israel used the specter of an international bid to squeeze 27.5 percent off the price of four corvette-class surface ships, now under construction at the ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems Shipyard (TKMS) in Kiel. – Defense News
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Iran, The Israeli's & The Twilight War Against the Mullah's 

1/30/2017

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Michael Eisenstadt writes: Washington’s embrace of Stuxnet to avert an Israeli military strike on Iran’s nuclear program probably reinforced the perception that it was reluctant to challenge Tehran in the physical domain. Paradoxically, this milestone use of offensive cyber may have inadvertently undermined cyber deterrence. Redressing this credibility gap will be key to future efforts to deter Iran in both cyber and physical domains. – The Cipher Brief
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Taliban Find New Sources of Revenue Outside of Poppy to Advance Agenda 

1/30/2017

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  • Taliban taps new revenues sources in Afghan utilities
The Afghan government faces a peculiar problem in at least two major provinces: It provides precious electricity, some of it imported at costly rates from neighboring countries, but Taliban militants collect most of the bills. – New York Times
 
An ominous week-long standoff between the government and its rogue first vice president is choking traffic and dominating talk in the edgy Afghan capital. Police units have been stationed at strategic points near his fortified compound, and everyone is asking the same question: Are they going to arrest Abdurrashid Dostum? – Washington Post
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How to Win "The Long War" 

1/29/2017

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Dr. henry Nau:  Conservative Internationalism, Former Director of Reagan's National Security Council New Book

1/29/2017

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The Ancient City of David & Israel, Start-Up Nation

1/28/2017

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“Indiana” Hoenlein and the Lost City of David. Dan Bahat, former City of Jerusalem Archeologist
Dan Bahat (Hebrew: ‫דן בהט‬‎‎, born 1938) is an Israeli archaeologist especially known for his excavations in Jerusalem , particularly at the western wall tunnels.

Bahat was born in Poland to parents who were citizens of Mandatory Palestine.[1] The family moved to Tel Aviv in 1939 and became Israeli citizens in 1948.[1] He served in the IDF from 1956 to 1958.[1] In 1964 he gained a Bachelor's degree in archaeology and Jewish history at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He finished his master's degree in 1978. In 1990 he obtained the PhD degree from the Hebrew University on the topic "Topography and Toponymy of Crusader Jerusalem" under the supervision of Joshua Prawer.[1]

In January 1992, Dan Bahat published the IAA’s archaeological findings of what became known as the largest ashlar stone found to date in Israel, at ca. 10 – 12 metres above the base of the Temple Mount’s western wall enclosure. The stone measured 13.6 metres (45 ft) in length, 4.6 metres (15 ft) in depth, 3.5 metres (11 ft) in height, and is estimated at weighing ca. 517 tonnes (570 short tons), the world’s third largest block of stone used in building.[2]

•http://www.haaretz.com/archaeology/1.761814 (start with this article, best archaeological findings of 2016!)
•http://www.timesofisrael.com/original-limestone-bed-on-which-jesus-was-buried-said-uncovered/
•http://www.jpost.com/Magazine/Secrets-uncovered-near-Robinsons-Arch-456448
•http://www.haaretz.com/jewish/archaeology/1.753136
•http://www.haaretz.com/jewish/archaeology/1.740548
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Trump's Foreign Policy Revolution

1/27/2017

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  • Charles Krauthammer: Trump’s foreign policy revolution
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Moscow Returns to Afghanistan

1/27/2017

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  • Moscow pushes into Afghanistan, challenging the US
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Libya: The Long War

1/26/2017

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Libya intends to reopen its oil sector to new foreign investments, its state-run oil company’s chief said Tuesday, a move that would give oil companies the opportunity to develop the largest petroleum reserves in Africa for the first time in five years. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
East Libyan forces said on Wednesday they had taken complete control of a long contested district in Benghazi after dozens of families and captives trapped by fighting left the area. - Reuters
 
A counter-terrorism unit in the Libyan capital Tripoli said it suspected Saturday's car bomb near the recently reopened Italian embassy was planted by backers of the powerful Libyan National Army (LNA) based in the eastern part of the divided country. - Reuters
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Egyptian Options for U.S. Policy

1/26/2017

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In the immediate aftermath of the Arab Spring, the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates were winning elections across the Middle East—a testament to the Islamist movement’s popular appeal. Now, President Donald Trump’s administration is considering declaring the Brotherhood a terrorist organization, something that could trigger a slew of unexpected consequences across the region. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Michele Dunne and Nathan Brown write: Members of Congress and key parts of the executive branch are being called upon to ask: Is there something called the Muslim Brotherhood that fits the definition in U.S. law of a foreign terrorist organization? And would designating it as such be an effective way of fighting terrorism in the United States and abroad?  - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
 
Amr Hamzawy writes: Finally, unlike the unfounded accusations levelled against human rights activists and pro-democracy groups that they have been out to impose chaos in Egypt since 2011, it is the new authoritarianism that, due to continuous abuses and violations, undermines stability and security. – Al Jazeera
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Israeli Options Post Arafat

1/26/2017

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Daniel Pipes
The US Missile Defense Agency and Israel’s Missile Defense Organization successfully demonstrated the David’s Sling Weapons System in a series of tests at Yanat Sea Range in Israel, MDA said in a statement released Wednesday. – Defense News
 
Interview: The Cipher Brief sat down with Aaron David Miller, Former advisor to Republican and Democratic Secretaries of State on Arab-Israeli negotiations to discuss the potential for reviving Israeli-Palestinian negotiations under the Trump Administration. According to Miller, “The Israeli-Palestinian peace process, can’t be much deader than it is now” and we should expect a “very bumpy and volatile period,” in the short-term. – The Cipher Brief
 
Robert Satloff writes: In deciding to move the embassy, Trump should make a net assessment that balances advantages and risks. It is a mistake to focus solely on the potential costs, however real and substantial they may be, when the potential benefits are real and substantial, too. – Washington Post
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The Wall

1/25/2017

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Trump & A New Israeli Capital?  &  Ten Proposals for Team Trump in Near East

1/24/2017

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HOOVER
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How Putin Views Syria

1/24/2017

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Frederic Hof writes: Marginalizing a regime whose private interests have brought Syria to ruin is the inescapable prerequisite for political accommodation in Syria. Putin may well see the objective truth of this proposition. Iran is the fundamental external obstacle. It sees Assad as essential to the health and well-being of its own signature contribution to the menagerie of Islamist extremism: Hezbollah. – Defense News
Russian Imperial Instinct
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Mosul & Future of Irak

1/24/2017

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  • FPI’s Mark Moyar: Mosul and the future of Iraq
FPI’s Mark Moyar writes: Because Iraq’s fate has become so entangled with that of its neighbors, improvements to Iraq’s condition will depend on actions that go well beyond Iraq. As a general principle, a greater show of American resolve will be valuable in shoring up American friends in the region and instilling caution in adversaries. But if the incoming administration wishes to devise effective strategies for Iraq and the broader Middle East, it will have to take fresh and thorough looks at realities across the region, current and historical. – Hoover Institution
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Toward An Afghan End State

1/24/2017

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Toward an Afghan End State
From Gary Anderson, Small Wars Journal: “The continuing NATO/American presence in Afghanistan should be viewed as an insurance policy. First, it is a relatively inexpensive hedge against a resurgence of foreign fighters who might use Afghanistan as a base for plotting attacks against the United States or its closest allies. The Russians have too much baggage regarding the Afghans for them ever be able to accomplish such a mission. Americans may not be universally loved by Afghans, but our presence is tolerated in a way the Russians could never achieve.” ​
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American Imperium & Foreign Strong Men

1/23/2017

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Lost Mines of King Solomon

1/23/2017

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Mesopotamia & "The Long War"

1/23/2017

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Two and a half years after the extremists rolled across northern Iraq, Pentagon and diplomatic officials say a military victory, at least in their major strongholds, is within sight.  But tens of thousands of fighters remain, and the militants are showing signs of reinventing themselves as a dispersed terrorist movement — a threat that the incoming commander in chief says has been given too much time to grow. – Washington Post

Interview: One of the key players in this battle is the leader of the autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq, Masoud Barzani, whose peshmerga troops are fighting alongside Iraqi forces. Barzani spoke to The Washington Post’s Lally Weymouth in Davos, Switzerland, this past week at the World Economic Forum. – Washington Post

Islamic State has ramped up sales of oil and gas to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, U.S. and European officials said, providing vital fuel to the government in return for desperately needed cash. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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A Great Place to Have a WAR

1/23/2017

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FPI’s Mark Moyar reviews “A Great Place to Have a War: America in Laos and the Birth of a Military CIA” by Joshua Kurlantzick: The forsaking of the Hmong and of Laos in general—along with the far larger abandonment of South Vietnam—spawned doubts that the United States would stick by its allies elsewhere in the world. The events of the past eight years have had much the same effect. Ronald Reagan showed that the U.S. can restore its credibility, but it took skill, vision and perseverance to do so then, and it will surely take more of the same to do so now. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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Tunisia:  An INcomplete Arab spring & 10 Point Agenda for Team Trump In Middle East

1/22/2017

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al-Monitor
HOOVER
REVIEW OF THE ARAB SPRING
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Pakistani Duplicity In Afghanistan &  LeJ Bombing

1/22/2017

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Nearly eight years after Obama began his presidency with a long and contentious Afghanistan strategy review, he is leaving behind for President-elect Donald Trump a war that reflects his divided outlook. By most measures, the conflict is a stalemate. Afghan troops are fighting hard, but “the casualty rate is much higher than we would have hoped,” a senior defense official recently told reporters. Taliban forces are taking territory from the U.S.-backed government, but have not been able to seize and hold any major cities or towns. – Washington Post
The governor of Afghanistan's volatile Helmand Province said Iranians and Pakistanis have recently met with Taliban insurgents involved in fighting Afghan forces. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Whoever was responsible, the shocking act abruptly cut off the nascent peace feelers, reinforced predictions that Afghanistan faces another long, punishing season of combat and terrorism once winter ends, and created a growing sense of gloom among officials and political leaders. Some said they fear the insurgents will be able to wear down the divided Kabul government and outlast the foreign goodwill that provides 70 percent of its budget. – Washington Post
LWJ
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Iran Tracker AEI

1/17/2017

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Jeb Bush and Dennis Ross writes: The Trump administration must broaden the agenda to account for Iran’s aggressive behavior and inappropriate involvement across the Middle East. Only through a new campaign of pressure can the U.S. demonstrate to Iran that it runs very great risks if its policies don’t change and if it is ever tempted to pursue nuclear weapons again. Tougher policies now are likely to reduce the risk of escalated conflict later on. - Time
Leadership in Iranian Military
AEI Iran Tracker
AEI: Kidnap Leading Quids Force Commander
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Cost of Aleppo

1/17/2017

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Shadi Hamid writes: Despite hoping to keep them at arm’s length, Middle Eastern conflicts — particularly the Syrian catastrophe and its spillover effects, including into the heart of Europe — have undermined the liberal world order. They have stained, perhaps fatally, what might have been in more peaceful times an admirable and even groundbreaking presidential legacy. – Foreign Policy
al-Monitor
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