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GLOBAL strike MEDIA
u.s. central command
centcom & The long war

PAKISTAN:  THE GRAVEYARD OF STRATEGY

1/31/2018

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Pakistan: Graveyard of Strategy​
By Robert Cassidy, Modern War Institute: “For any Afghanistan strategy, the gap between theory and practice will remain vast until the full host of resources is employed to prevail upon Pakistan to stop supporting the Haqqani Network and the Taliban. ”
There’s no military solution to the long-running conflict in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi said, warning little progress would be made until all sides entered into peace talks. - Bloomberg
Afghanistan’s government and security forces are mired in a grueling struggle for survival, despite the relative lull the winter is supposed to provide ahead of the Taliban’s traditional spring offensive. The warmer months will likely only add to the violence as the Afghan state fights an open-ended battle against several deadly enemies, including the Taliban and ISIS, who are rapidly conquering more and more territory – and attacking civilians and troops with spectacular ferocity.

The Taliban and ISIS’s Afghan affiliate known as ISIS Khorasan Province (ISKP) continue to conduct regular attacks against Afghan civilians and security forces. A decade and a half after the initial U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, these insurgent groups are gaining strength at an alarming, threatening to overrun several districts in the country.
  • President Donald Trump pledged a new “path forward in Afghanistan and South Asia” during his prime-time address last August, but while the president announced the U.S. would deepen its commitments to the nearly 16-year-old conflict, the president did not address troop numbers, lay out specific benchmarks for the American people to assess his strategy’s success, or clearly delineate long-term U.S. objectives in Afghanistan.
  • For the last 16 plus years, the U.S. public has been left to wonder what U.S. objectives are in Afghanistan. Until precise goals are delineated by the U.S government and military, the Afghanistan quagmire leaves the U.S. with few good options.
Read the full brief,
The State of the Afghan War 
By Seth G. Jones, CSIS: “How is the war going? And what metrics are important to gauge the state of the war? Thankfully, there is more than sufficient publicly available information to answer these questions for a war that has witnessed several recent grisly attacks—and which has evolved into a draw between the government and Taliban.”
Kabul attacks cloud U.S. Afghan strategy
Afghanistan has given neighboring Pakistan confessions and other proof that the militants who carried out a recent series of attacks were trained in Pakistan and that Taliban leaders there are allowed to roam freely, the Afghan interior minister said Thursday. - Associated Press

Pakistan’s defense minister said his country is determined to retain a positive relationship with the U.S. despite President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend military aid to the nuclear-armed nation. - Bloomberg
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Seth G. Jones writes: Groups like the Taliban and the Islamic State have generally orchestrated attacks in cities like Kabul for their psychological effect. These attacks, which are meant to grab local and international media attention, are often intended to cast doubt on the Afghan government’s ability to protect its population and to create an impression that insurgents are resilient—if not omnipresent. But they aren’t helpful indicators of how the war is going. - Center for Strategic & International Studies
The Case for Counter Insurgency ‘Light’ in Afghanistan
By Charles Barham, RealClearDefense: “Unlike the U.S. led COIN campaign of 2010-2012, this emerging COIN campaign will not be the U.S. or even coalition led.”
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GREAT POWER COMPETITION FOR THE INDO-PACIFIC

1/30/2018

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Strategic Innovation and Great Power Competition 
By Elsa B. Kania, Strategy Bridge: “At this time of disruptive transitions, the new U.S. National Defense Strategy rightly recognizes that the character of warfare is changing due to the advent of a range of disruptive technologies.”
Troubled Times in South Asia
The USA has taken a back seat. China is getting active. Pakistan has strong allies. South Asia just became a lot more challenging for India.
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AFGHANISTAN & STATE OF THE UNION

1/30/2018

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US military halts release of data on Taliban-controlled districts
The DoD would not be suppressing information on Taliban district and population control as well as key metrics on the Afghan security forces if the fight was going well.
U.S., AFGHANISTAN: 
Resolute Support Claims ‘Human Error’ Led to Withholding District Control Data

By Bill Roggio, FDD's Long War Journal: “SIGAR countered with evidence that shows how Resolute Support – which is NATO’s command in Afghanistan – marked elements of the draft report that it did not want disclosed as “not releasable to the public,” and followed up with the U.S. military on the classifications.”

India misleading US on why it is failing in Afghanistan
 ATTA RASOOL MALIK
Because of what they read and hear in the media, it may seem far-fetched to most US and other Western readers, but the fact is this – it is India that is lying to and cheating the US in Afghanistan, not Pakistan. First things first. The belief in the doctrine of "American supremacy" runs deep in the culture and history of the United States. American troops quite often underestimate their foes, and such is the...

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HOW TO UNDERSTAND THE YEMENI CONFLICT

1/30/2018

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The War in Yemen and the Making of a Chaos State // Defense One Staff 

The world’s worst humanitarian crisis is in Yemen. An ancient and remote place not exactly known for its international tourism, the country has begun to make headlines for its war, outbreaks of cholera and diphtheria, and rockets aimed at the Saudi capital hundreds of miles away from the front lines. The dangers have gone regional.

The main conflict inside Yemen — there are several — is a U.S.-backed, Saudi Arabia-led intervention to unseat a group of rebels called the Houthis. It’s been going on for more than 1,000 days, and yet both sides feel more emboldened today than ever. Meanwhile, less than half of the country’s hospitals are operational. Children are being recruited into war. The outlook is grim, and for a much larger area than just Yemen.

But why? And is there any sort of way out?

In this special feature, Defense One's Ben Watson traces the roots of conflict:
  • Part One: Old lines and fallen empires
  • Part Two: The Saudi-led intervention
  • Part Three: What lies ahead
Audio interviews: Go beyond the quotes with Oxford University's Elisabeth Kendall, the Atlantic Council's Aaron Stein and more, here.
​
And don't miss this animated, historical review of the conflicts in Yemen, and how the country's dangers have gone regional. 
Yemen separatists take control of Aden 
Yemen’s southern separatists took control of the port city of Aden on Tuesday after seizing the area around the presidential palace and confining members of the UN-backed government inside. Sources within the self-proclaimed Southern Transitional Council said Prime Minister Ahmed bin Daghr was preparing to flee the city, claims that the internationally recognized government denied. Fighting between the separatists and forces loyal to Saudi Arabia-based President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi have been ongoing since Sunday, killing dozens of people. The conflict has complicated the Saudi-led coalition’s efforts to fight the Iran-backed Houthi rebels on behalf of the Hadi government.  Read More  ​
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AMERICA'S LONGEST WAR & THE ALLY DRIVING THE CONFLICT; PAKISTAN CONDONES HAQQANI HIT WITH U.S. DRONE

1/29/2018

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America's Longest War—and the Ally That Fuels It
How Pakistan has perpetuated the Afghan conflict.
U.S., PAKISTAN: 
Pakistan 'Condemns Drone Strike' That Killed Haqqani Network Commander

By Bill Roggio, FDD's Long War Journal: “Over the past two years, the U.S. drone campaign appears to have shifted its focus from the tribal agencies of North and South Waziristan to Kurram. The U.S. has launched 13 such attacks inside Pakistan since Dec. 2016.”
Don’t Let China Start Calling the Shots in Pakistan 
By Tim Willasey-Wilsey, The Cipher Brief: “The vast size of the proposed China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has players on all sides struggling to calculate the pros and cons for their own interests. From the benefit of creating new trade routes to the obstacle of the war in Afghanistan, regional leaders and their citizens are assessing whether and how much to get involved in the estimated $62 billion Chinese project.

Asia’s Escalating Missile Race 
By Brendan Thomas-Noone, the interpreter: “If the Cold War was one long arms race, the modern era could be accurately described as an arms jog. Countries are defined less by how many nuclear warheads they have, and more by what they can do with them.”
Jihad decree triggers demands for holy war on Kashmir
BY KUNWAR KHULDUNE SHAHID
Efforts by Pakistan's government to dissociate itself from charges of sponsoring terrorism have attracted a hostile response from Islamists
AFGHANISTAN: Islamic State Branch Claims Attack on Afghan Military Academy 
By Thomas Joscelyn, FDD's Long War Journal: “It appears that the raid was yet another inghimasi operation involving several jihadists. Inghimasis are generally well-trained guerrilla fighters who are prepared to die in battle. They are different from traditional suicide bombers in that they don’t detonate their explosive belts or vests at the outset of the fight, but instead first battle their enemies with light arms or other weapons. They “immerse” themselves in the battle before killing themselves.”
The Future of Afghanistan Security: Afghan Commandos 
By Marty Skovlund Jr., Task & Purpose: “The near-term goal is to have 4,000 additional troops ready in time for this year’s spring offensive. In order to achieve this, three commando courses will be running concurrently by the end of January, with a total of 2,500 soldiers in training at once.”
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AL-QAEDA & THE ARAB SPRING

1/29/2018

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THE LONG WAR JOURNAL
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HOW TO MOVE PALESTINIANS OUT OF REJECTIONISM

1/29/2018

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SAUDI'S bIN SALMAN HITS SNAG IN REFORM:  WHERE TO LIST ARAMCO & A LOOK AT SAUDI-IRANIAN RELATIONS

1/29/2018

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WSJ
How the Saudis Drag the US into Perpetual War in the Mideast // Danny Sjursen
With ISIS essentially gone from Syria, it's time to bug out, no matter what the Kingdom thinks. 

US General to Turkey: We're Not Pulling Back // Kevin Baron
General Votel said the US supports its NATO ally's concerns but won't abandon the coalition of Syrian Democratic Forces fighting ISIS on the world's behalf. 

Podcast: The War in Yemen and the Making of a Chaos State // Ben Watson
More than 1,000 days of fighting have turned Yemen into one of the most dangerous places on the planet. Aid workers, journalists, and experts explain little-appreciated realities about the war, and how — just maybe — to help turn things around.
Saudi-Iran relations: story behind a clash of regional leadership
M SHAMSUR RABB KHAN
In the late 1960s, wrote Elaine Sciolino in The New York Times in 2001 ("A nation challenged: Ally's future; US pondering Saudis' vulnerability"), Reza Shah Pahlavi sent a series of letters to King Faisal of Saudi Arabia, urging, "Please, my brother, modernize. Open up your country. Make the schools mixed women and men. Let women wear  miniskirts. Have discos. Be modern. Otherwise I cannot guarantee you will stay on your throne." 


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EUROPE SURRENDERS TO IRAN & ISRAEL DIGS IN

1/27/2018

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AEI'S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT:  YEMENI CIVIL WAR

1/27/2018

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AEI
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JOHN KERRY'S COLLUSION

1/27/2018

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NY SUN
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IRANIAN BALLISTIC MISSILE TESTS & U.S. HOSTS QATAR FOR GULF RELATED ISSUES

1/27/2018

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"Iranian Ballistic Missile Tests Since the Nuclear Deal – 2.0," Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD Research Memo
"Iranian-backed Iraqi militias form coalition ahead of parliamentary elections," Amir Toumaj and Romany Shaker, FDD's Long War Journal
 US hosts Qatar for strategic talks
 Qatar is launching a full-court press for US support next week amid a monthslong diplomatic and commercial blockade from rival Gulf powers. Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Defense Minister Khalid bin Mohammad Al Attiyah will be in Washington Tuesday for the inaugural US-Qatar Strategic Dialogue, with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis co-chairing the opening session of the dialogue with their counterparts. The forum will focus on deepening ties regarding trade and investment, defense, security and law enforcement, counterterrorism and aviation, a Defense Department official told Al-Monitor, as well as critical regional issues of defeating the Islamic State, the Gulf dispute, Syria, Iran, Iraqand Afghanistan.

“Qatar is a strategic partner, and we seek to use this dialogue to deepen our collaboration,” the official said.
Qatar will use the opportunity to do much-needed damage control amid a continuing lobbying war between Doha and the United Arab Emirates, which, along with Saudi Arabia, has sought to isolate Qatar since last June over its support for the Muslim Brotherhood and its diplomatic ties to Iran. Attiyah is slated to address military-to-military relations with the United States at the Heritage Foundation, Washington's premier conservative think tank, on Monday.

​The country hosts the largest US air base in the region at al-Udeid, where US forces appear largely unaffected so far by the Gulf crisis. And on Wednesday, the recently established Doha-linked nonprofit, the Qatar-America Institute, hosts a luncheon discussion with leaders in the fight against terrorism financing from the United States and Qatar. The event comes as the House Foreign Affairs Committee passed sanctions legislation late last year that singles out Qatar for its support of Hamas.

GCC's silence on Turkey’s Afrin adventure is telling
The Sunni Gulf states have failed to make a unified statement on Turkey's Operation Olive Branch in Syria, a sign of their competing interests.
BEING REALISTIC—BUT HOPEFUL—ABOUT IRAN
By EPPC Fellow Luma Simms
Law and Liberty

The road to a modest modernization initiative that could open up Middle Eastern countries in a way that would not compromise their religious beliefs and Muslim identity is only through the path of the dignity of the human person.
 Read More
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IRAQ:  NATIONAL ELECTIONS SET FOR MAY; RUSSIA PLAYS PEACEMAKER FOR SYRIA

1/27/2018

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FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES
Russia plays Syria peacemaker in Sochi 

Russia finally convenes its long-awaited congress of Syrian groups in Sochi this week amid widespread uncertainty that some of the main guests will even show up. For Moscow, the two-day Black Sea confab starting Monday represents an ambitious gambit to help end the seven-year war, consolidate its strategic gains and begin to extricate its troops. But it could just as well turn into a diplomatic embarrassment if key groups stay away amid rampant accusations that Russia is trying to undermine UN-backed peace talks in Geneva to protect its ally Bashar al-Assad and its own interests in the country.

Some 1,600 people have finally received invitations to the event after months of arguments with Turkey and Iran, with Ankara in particular bitterly opposing the presence of Kurdish forces that it views as a national security threat. Kurdish factions in turn have vowed not to attend in protest of Turkey’s ongoing assault on the Kurdish-held Afrin border region. The main Western-backed opposition group, the Syrian Negotiations Commission, is still undecided. And the Donald Trump administration is signaling that it may skip the proceedings despite being invited as an observer. A State Department official today told Al-Monitor, “As our focus remains on supporting Geneva and substantive progress from those negotiations, the UN must have full discretion when deciding whether separate events contribute to the Geneva process.”
​
The breakdown in those UN-led talks paradoxically is one of the main reasons for the Sochi forum in the first place. Diplomats are wrapping up a ninth round of talks today in Vienna with little progress to report on plans for elections and a new constitution. Meanwhile, government and opposition representatives met separately with UN special envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura.

Meet Iraq's plentiful parliamentary alliances
Iraqi Shiite parties have formed four main coalitions for the upcoming parliamentary elections, but they are expected to join forces after the vote to take advantage of their collective clout.
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BEIJING & ISLAMABAD:  THE OIL CORRIDOR & BILATERAL TIES

1/25/2018

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Willasey-Wilsey's in-depth look at the CPEC.
  • Designations highlight Taliban’s longstanding ties to al Qaeda
  • Newly created ‘teaching’ brigade prepares to deploy to Afghanistan
  • Analysis: US Treasury Department reveals new details about the Taliban’s network
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SAUDI CORRUPTION GRABS $13 BILLION & MIKE PENCE HITS THE MIDDLE EAST

1/25/2018

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Saudi corruption settlements to fund $13 B welfare plan
 reuters.com
Mike Pence in the Middle East: The new point man on foreign policy?
John R. Bolton | The Hill
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EGYPT'S CONTROLLED ELECTION

1/25/2018

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COUNCIL FOREIGN RELATIONS
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WHERE ARE LIBYA'S REVOLUTIONARIES

1/25/2018

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When the Islamic State Came to Libya // Frederic Wehrey
Since the fall of Qaddafi, the war-torn country's militias have sought to contain extremism. But at what cost?
Libya's revolutionaries: Where are they now?
Several politicians, ministers, diplomats and high-ranking civil servants who were once a part of the Libyan revolution now find themselves in different circumstances.
LIBYA: ISIS Festers and Grows in Lawless Libya 
By Bennett Seftel, The Cipher Brief: “Unless Libya can make headway toward forming a unified government, its lawless border areas will continue to provide fertile ground for ISIS and other terrorist groups to foment instability across North Africa.”
Libyan slave trade feeds on endless supply of migrants
Heavy migration from sub-Saharan Africa combined with rampant lawlessness and poverty in the northwestern and southern regions make the smuggling business irresistible to some Libyans.
“The instability in Libya and North Africa may be the most significant near-term threat to U.S. and allies’ interests on the continent,” the general, Thomas D. Waldhauser, told lawmakers. But perhaps just as concerning, he indicated, were intelligence reports that Russia was helping a former Libyan general turned military strongman in a fight for control over the country’s government and vast oil resources. - New York Times
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AMERICA & SOUTHWEST ASIA:  COLLISION COURSE

1/24/2018

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Pakistan, U.S. still intertwined despite Trump’s military aid cut
The United States and Southwest Asia
By Mohammed Ayoob, The Strategist (ASPI): “The dynamics of Southwest Asia are in many ways distinct from those of neighboring South Asia and the Middle East, although they’re connected to what’s happening both to the east and west of it. The United States is an important part of these dynamics because of its involvement in multifarious ways in the three main countries of the sub-region—Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran.”
The United States has designated as terrorists six individuals accused of supporting the Taliban and the Haqqani network in Afghanistan and is stressing their links to Pakistan. - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
China’s New Network of Indian Ocean Bases 
By David Brewster, the interpreter: “According to recent reports, China may be about to construct a naval and air base near Gwadar, in west Pakistan. This would be China’s second base in the Indian Ocean and indicate that it may be moving fast to establish a network of military bases across the region.”
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TURKEY & MESOPOTAMIA HEAT UP UNDER TRUMP

1/24/2018

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TURKEY: Turkey Plays Catch-up With Militarization in Red Sea
By Pesha Magid, Al-Monitor: “Sudan recalled its ambassador to Egypt and sent more troops to its border with Eritrea on Jan. 15. The move came amid escalating tensions with Egypt and Eritrea, sparked by a Sudan-Turkey deal to build a military base on the Sudanese island of Suakin, a key Red Sea port.”
IRAQ, SYRIA: ISIS Still Wreaking Havok in Western Iraq, Syrian Border
By Shelly Kittleson, Al-Monitor: “With police being targeted in their homes near Ramadi, and with the Islamic State (IS) still in possession of bases in the vast Iraqi desert, counterattacks on forces across the border in Syria are of growing concern to the Iraqis. ”
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HAQQANI & TALIBAN HIT KABUL HOTEL

1/23/2018

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THE SAUDI HOUSE ENVELOPED FROM WITHIN

1/23/2018

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Bernard Haykel writes: Many journalistic accounts of Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Prince Mohammed bin Salman (often referred to as MBS), depict him as power-hungry and corrupt, and cite these two impulses for his behavior and policies.The fact is that MBS is trying to deal with a harsh truth about Saudi Arabia: The kingdom is economically and politically unsustainable, and is headed toward a disaster. - Washington Post
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THE INDO-PACIFIC & NATIONAL SECURITY

1/23/2018

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U.S. National Defense Strategy: Implications for the Indo-Pacific Region 
By Greg Colton, the interpreter: “The assertion that China is seeking hegemony in the Indo-Pacific through 'leveraging military modernisation, influence operations, and predatory economics to coerce neighbouring countries' sets the scene for more overt competition for influence in the Pacific between the U.S. and China.”
  • Hoover's Kori Schake: Mattis’s Defense Strategy Is Bold
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ISRAEL ISN'T ISOLATED ANYMORE & ISRAN, AFGHANISTAN CONFLICT HEATS UP

1/22/2018

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CFR:  COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS BLOG, ELLIOT ABRAMS
  • "Hit Ayatollah Khamenei in His Pocketbook," Mark Dubowitz and Saeed Ghasseminejad, The Wall Street Journal
  • "Revelations uncover bitter truths about Hezbollah’s dirty money," Jonathan Schanzer and Mark Dubowitz, Al-Arabiya
  • "German Court Allows Labeling Jewish Anti-Zionist Activist as Antisemite," Benjamin Weinthal, The Jerusalem Post 
  • "Afghan and Coalition forces prepare for 2018 offensive against the Taliban," Bill Roggio and Alexandra Gutowski, FDD's Long War Journal
Afghan and Coalition forces prepare for 2018 offensive against the Taliban

Afghan forces will be on the offensive in the coming year, but have significant challenges ahead.
ISRAEL
The American vice president delivered another kick in the diplomatic gut to Palestinians when he announced this week that the U.S. embassy would open in Jerusalem by 2019, writes Emile Nakhleh, a former member of the CIA's Senior Intelligence Service.
  • "Like President Donald Trump’s earlier pronouncements recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and declaring his intention to move the U.S. embassy there, Pence’s declaration places Egypt’s strongman, Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, and Jordan’s King Abdullah II in a very delicate and difficult position vis-à-vis their people and other Arabs and Muslims." 

  • "The Trump administration is underestimating the looming domestic threats to the Jordanian monarch that such rhetoric can cause. Pence’s announcement will likely galvanize and coalesce the domestic opposition to King Abdullah. In Egypt, Islamist activists – extremists and mainstream alike – will also mobilize in their opposition to Sissi."
Read Nakhleh's column.
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GRAPHIC ORGANIZER:  THE IRANIAN PROTESTS & NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HAMAS & FATAH

1/22/2018

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The Iranian anti-regime protests in graphics
Mike Saidi | Critical Threats
GATESTONE INSTITUTE
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SEBASTIAN GORKA:  TRUMP ELMINATES THE CALIPHATE

1/19/2018

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