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GLOBAL strike MEDIA
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centcom & The long war

A PERFECT CRISIS FOR PAKISTAN:  FALTERING IRANIAN RELATIONS AND A BALANCE OF PAYMENT CRISIS; TALIBAN SEEK TO DAMAGE US PRESTIGE

1/29/2019

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Saudi-UAE Aid Puts Pakistan-Iran Relations on the Spot
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, January 29, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Pakistan is stepping through a minefield as it concludes agreements on investment, balance of payments support, and delayed payment oil deliveries with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates worth $13 billion. These deals are likely to spawn growing distrust in its relations with neighboring Iran.

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The Taliban plays Trump for a fool
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner 
Washington once before settled to the deal now laid before it. At the minimum, it behooves Zalmay Khalilzad and President Trump to explain why they believe that the Taliban, emboldened by what they see as the defeat of the US, would any more honor their word now than 20 years ago.
Getting Ahead of the Implications of a U.S.-Taliban Deal in Afghanistan by Jonathan Schroden
The Afghan scenario is far from gloomy
‘Tired’ Taliban fights on as US is desperate to leave Afghanistan
Political, military, and intelligence leaders, as well as analysts and experts on Afghanistan have been claiming the Taliban is exhausted from fighting for at least 15 years. And yet the Taliban fights on while the US is desperate to leave.
Afghanistan: Remembering the Long, Long War We Would Rather Forget by Todd Greentree​
Through the Taliban’s Eyes: Peace Prospects in Afghanistan
By Baheer Wardak, the interpreter: “Any progress to end the longest war in American history would require accepting some mind-boggling demands from the Taliban, or substantial policy and ideological shifts on their part, which seem unlikely."
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ISRAELI CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS GROWS TOXIC & HOW THE NEXT MIDDLE EAST WAR BEGINS

1/28/2019

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The Israeli Left's Unabashed Militarism
By Prof. Udi Lebel, February 1, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Israeli Left’s obsession with toppling PM Benjamin Netanyahu has driven it to embrace a military “dream team” bent on overthrowing a civilian ruling party. This echoes the all-too-common phenomenon of Third World military juntas seizing power to “save the nation” from “corrupt politicians.” Generals brought to power as “national saviors” in times of deep crisis have often been the harbingers of populism, authoritarianism, and fascism.

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Israel ex-army chief challenges Netanyahu from the center
Why the next war in the Middle East will look different 
Kenneth Pollack | "Rostrum" 
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ISRAEL RETHINKS COMMITMENT TO SYRIAN CAMPAIGN & WHY SHARING THE NEIGHBORHOOD ISN'T WORKING

1/28/2019

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PICTURE:  ISRAEL'S IRON DOME
Rethinking Israel's Syria Campaign
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, January 27, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Moscow’s public demand that Israel stop its attacks in Syria places Israel’s longstanding air campaign at a critical juncture despite PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s avowed determination to sustain it for as long as necessary.

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 Kissinger's prophecy fulfilled in syria
(War On The Rocks) “It was always doubtful Assad would lose. He had support and a strategy to outdo his enemies, a loyal army, and security service which had Sunni, Christian, Alawi.’” 
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NATIONAL INTEREST REVIEWS:  THE EVOLUTION OF KURDS POLITICAL ECONOMY

1/28/2019

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It’s time to acknowledge the Kurdistan Workers' Party's evolution
Michael Rubin | The National Interest 
At issue is whether the Kurdistan Workers' Party should be judged by its actions 35 years ago or whether it is possible to accept that organizations and governments evolve.
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MURDER OF PAKISTANI BOYS FAMILY EXPOSES DEEPLY FLAWED POLITICIZED POLICE DOMINATE PAKISTAN

1/25/2019

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BBC
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SAUDI ARABIA IS BUILDING BALLISTIC MISSILES:  HERE'S THE PHOTO'S

1/25/2019

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Can Saudi Arabia produce ballistic missiles? Satellite imagery raises suspicions.
(Washington Post) Satellite images suggest that Saudi Arabia has constructed its first known ballistic missile factory, according to weapons experts and image analysts, a development that raises questions about the kingdom’s increasing military and nuclear ambitions under its 33-year-old crown prince. 
 
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SUCCESS & FAILURE:  DANIEL PIPES' MIDDLE EAST FORUM AT 25 YEARS & EGYPT'S OLDEST ARABIC CALLIGRAPHY SCHOOL REMAINS OPEN

1/24/2019

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The Middle East Forum at 25
Failure and Success
by Daniel Pipes
Jerusalem Post 

http://www.danielpipes.org/18683/mef-at-25-failure-success
Egypt’s oldest Arabic calligraphy school strives to survive
Many institutes of calligraphy simply closed their doors when the Egyptian government stopped subsidizing them, but one school persists.
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WALTER RUSSELL MEAD:  TRUMP WANTS OUT OF MIDDLE EAST & LATEST TALIBAN AGREEMENT IS TO REJECT AL-QAEDA

1/22/2019

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 Taliban reaches agreement with US to block al Qaeda, Islamic State from Afghanistan: Report
(Washington Examiner) But still on the negotiating table is one of the Taliban’s main priorities: removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan. A source familiar with the deal told the Wall Street Journal conversations are continuing concerning the status of the approximately 14,000 U.S. troops in the region, as are discussions for future plans of U.S. bases in Afghanistan that the Taliban wants closed. 
 
 Mullah Baradar appointed head of Taliban’s ‘political office’ in Qatar
(Long War Journal) The Taliban has appointed Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar to lead its political office in Doha, Qatar, which is tasked with negotiating the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Baradar spent eight years in Pakistani custody before he was released in 2018. 
 
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ISRAELI P.M. GOES TO CHAD; AL-SISI BACKS SUDAN WHILE RUSSIA & IRAN TEAM UP FOR SYRIA

1/22/2019

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Egypt declares support for Sudan during upheaval
As deadly anti-government protests enter their sixth week in Sudan, Egypt has announced its full support for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in what could indicate improved relations between the countries.
Raphael Ahren writes: Netanyahu has long designated Africa as a prime target for Israeli diplomacy. He has traveled to the continent four times over the last two-and-a-half years, and met with numerous African leaders — including secretly with some whose nations do not have formal relations with Israel. None of the African countries Netanyahu has courted are model democracies. In short, Chad would appear to be entirely out of step with Israeli ideals. Nevertheless, Netanyahu decided this week to make the effort to fly thousands of miles to N’Djamena to celebrate the resumption of diplomatic relations and heap praise on Déby — who has ruled the country for nearly 30 years. – Times of Israel
Tehran-Moscow Cooperation Goes Beyond Syria
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INDIA'S SURPLUS POLICY OPTIONS REGARDING PAKISTAN & US PAKISTANI STRATEGIC SHIFT IN BILATERAL RELATIONS

1/22/2019

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India’s multiple options to deal with Pakistan
Imran Khan, Xi Jinping share personalities and goals
America’s War in Afghanistan: Fostering Anger, Not Security
By Bonnie Kristian, RealClearDefense “U.S. withdrawal would not fix Afghanistan’s problems—and the violence that has plagued that country since long before American troops deployed in 2001 will continue for the foreseeable future. But it requires a break from reality to argue that staying put offers any plausible route to U.S.-orchestrated peace."
U.S.-India Relations: The Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy Bright Spot by Richard Fontaine
US-Pakistan relations are undergoing a strategic shift
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MICHAEL KRAMER & DORAN EXAMINE TRUMP'S KEY SYRIAN POLICY:  WITHDRAWAL AND WHY IT MATTERS & challenges TO THE NEW IDF CHIEF

1/21/2019

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SANDBOX:  MICHAEL KRAMER

Challenges of the New IDF Chief of Staff by  Efraim Inbar
The Jerusalem Post
January 16, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/57615/new-idf-chief

Israeli Strikes in Syria Reveal New Battlefield for Post-Civil War Era by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
January 21, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/57632/israel-strikes-syria-era
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A WAR TO ACHIEVE MODERNITY:  DEFEATING ISLAMISM FOR THE LONG WAR; beginning with turkey

1/18/2019

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A War to Achieve Modernity  by Alia Al Ganis  •  January 2019
Karen E. Young writes: The truth is that the US is absent as a beacon or facilitator of a liberal economic vision for the region. So, without a champion of markets governed by rule of law, or an advocate for increasing economic mobility for a young population, markets will sort out the most favorable environments for capital in the region. How will markets respond in the Middle East, as they are more cognizant of a diminished American role in regional peace and prosperity? There is less optimism for bottom-up economic growth, particularly as state-ownership and intervention continues to dominate – American Enterprise Institute
W. Robert Pearson writes: Throughout his career, he has never articulated his long-term goals, but his actions suggest what they are. His problem today is actually the same one that faced the Ottoman Empire in its later centuries: he lacks the resources to accomplish his goals. Normally, a leader in that position would befriend those who could provide him support. In today’s world, for Turkey that would ordinarily mean working with Europe and the United States within a broader global community. Turkey once seemed to be on that path. Mr. Erdogan insisted on a different direction, and now the task is considerably more difficult. – Middle East Institute
Michael Rubin writes: For most countries, it would be unthinkable to support, let alone supply, al-Shabaab. Except for Turkey. […] That Turkey was actively supporting an al Qaeda affiliate in Syria and, at a minimum, passively supporting the Islamic State was the major reason why the United States cast its lot in with Syria’s Kurds. Turkey’s ongoing partnership with radical groups in Syria will also pose a lasting security challenge to the broader region and Turkey itself. – Washington Examiner
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HOW US POLICY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST IS CHANGING UNDER TRUMP & WAR ON THE ROCKS EXAMINES US AFGHAN POLICY FOR A PULL-OUT

1/18/2019

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Kenneth Pollack writes: The Middle East is changing. Dramatically so. The political, economic, and cultural systems that the Arab states (and Iran) installed after gaining independence following World War II are breaking down all across the region. Most are financially shaky as a result of a torrid population boom that has outstripped the oil revenues that underpin their rickety economies. – American Enterprise Institute
What Will be the Fate of Trump’s Afghan Campaign? by Aaron O’Connell
Grace Wermenbol writes: Israeli attempts to thwart weapon transfers from Iran to Shi’a-proxy Hezbollah have led to confrontations on the Syrian warfront between Russia and Israel. At the same time, relations between the Palestinians and the United States are at an all-time low. By leveraging Palestinian wariness of the Trump administration, Moscow seeks the dual goal of directly challenging the United States’ traditional role as Mideast peace broker while expanding its sphere of economic and political influence in the Levant. – Middle East Institute
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40 YEARS AGO. . A GREAT PERSIAN SATAN ROSE:  THE AYATOLLAH BEGINS TO REIGN; ARMY STUDY ASKS "WHO WON IRAQ WAR" ANSWER IS IRAN

1/17/2019

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Arafat and the Ayatollahs
​The PLO’s greatest single contribution to the Iranian Revolution was the formation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but the Palestinian leader’s involvement with Iran didn’t end there.
WINEP’s Ray Takeyh: John Bolton is threatening Iran. Good. 
Forty years ago, Iran’s ruling shah left his nation for the last time and an Islamic Revolution overthrew the vestiges of his caretaker government. The effects of the 1979 revolution, including the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the ensuing hostage crisis, have reverberated through decades of tense relations between Iran and America. Here are the key moments leading up to Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and the hostage crisis. – Associated Press
​

On Jan. 16, 1979, Iran’s powerful Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi abandoned his Peacock Throne and left his nation, never to return home, setting the stage for the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution a month later. […]Now, 40 years later, The Associated Press is making its stories about the shah’s departure from Iran available, along with historic photos from that climactic day. The stories have been edited for typographical errors, but maintain the AP style of the day, such as using “Moslem” as opposed to Muslim. – Associated Press
Army’s long-awaited Iraq war study finds Iran was the only winner in a conflict that holds many lessons for future wars
(Army Times) A two-volume Army study of the Iraq war is a deep examination of the mistakes and success of the war effort that also takes aim at critics who would slough off the conflict as they shift to near-peer threats.
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INDIA KILLS TOP TERROR CHIEF IN KASHMIR

1/17/2019

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Indian Forces kill top terror commander wanted in Jammu and Kashmir
Posted: 16 Jan 2019 09:50 AM PST
Indian security forces killed a notorious and heavily sought-after bomb-maker and chief commander of the Pakistani-connected Al-Badr organization in the Jammu and Kashmir region. Indian officials and news sources identified the commander as Zeenat-ul-Islam, and illustrated his ties with numerous US-designated foreign terror organizations in the region, including Al-Badr and Hizbul Mujahideen. A second terrorist, […]
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NEW IDF CHIEF FACES MULTIPLE CHALLENGES

1/17/2019

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New IDF chief faces multiple challenges
 Israel’s new IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi faces multiple challenges on nearby fronts, further away and also vis-a-vis his boss, Prime Minister and Defense Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
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TUNISIA, HOME OF ARAB SPRING RELEASES TRUTH COMMISSION REPORT ON STATE ABUSES, HOW URBAN LIFE PERPETUATES THE ARAB SPRING & TUNISIA POST REVOLUTIONARY ARAB SPRING STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

1/17/2019

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Tunisians cautiously optimistic as truth commission delivers final report
After five years of investigating cases of corruption and human rights abuses under former dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia’s Truth and Dignity Commission is concluding its mandate, though many say there is still much more to do.
Middle East Communities Can Resist Sectarianism
Sectarianism has become a destructive feature of the modern Middle East. But endless bouts of sectarian violence and religious conflict in the region are not inevitable. A new RAND study examines what makes communities resilient to sectarianism. Strong levels of trust, social connections, and physical proximity across sectarian lines are important. These factors help prevent communities from sliding into sectarianism when conflict emerges. Read more »
Ben Fishman and Dana Stroul write: If the 2011 revolutions taught us anything, it is that Arab citizens — specifically Arab youths — want economic opportunity and a certain political liberalization, if not Western-style democracy. Clearly amplifying their voices, while convincingly standing against our collective threats, is the most effective way for the United States to be a force for good in the Middle East. – The Hill
tunisia’s_government_is_stuck_between_its_own_workers_and_the_imf._what’s_next__-_the_washington_post.pdf
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what_tunisia’s_historic_truth_commission_accomplished_—_and_what_went_wrong_-_the_washington_post.pdf
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tunisia_vs._afghanistan_|_national_review.pdf
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An opportunity to export expertise in urban planning
Tunisia’s democracy on life support as politicians squabble
Eight years after the Tunisian Revolution that sparked the Arab Spring, Tunisia's transition to democracy remains complex, unfulfilled and at risk.
Democrat or Islamist firebrand — who is Tunisia's Rachid Ghannouchi?
In an interview with Al-Monitor, Rachid Ghannouchi, the leader of Tunisia's Ennahda party, discusses the forthcoming elections and how Ennahda has shaped post-revolution politics in Tunisia.
A Crude Look at the Whole:
A Simple Guide to Complexity for National Security Professionals

By Zachery Tyson Brown, Strategy Bridge: “The point of recounting the events surrounding the Arab Spring is not that any of them were the cause of the others. Asking why the cascade of popular movements occurred when it did is the wrong question, because it assumes ultimate causation is even knowable in complex systems. This is known as the fallacy of the single cause or causal reductionism. Causal reductionism attempts to draw linear relationships from cause to effect. ”
Eight years since Tunisians toppled longtime president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in a revolution that effectively launched the Arab Spring, protests against the current government’s economic policies are being staged across the country. – Jerusalem Post
​

Ross Harrison writes: Power dynamics between the major global and regional powers have indirectly influenced the civil wars currently plaguing the Middle East. By analyzing the impact of the Cold War, its end, and the regional and domestic dynamics it produced, this paper argues that the shift in the distribution of power caused by end of the Cold War, as well as the resulting American unipolarity, facilitated the creation of two opposing camps, one comprising the U.S. and its allies and the other an “axis of resistance.” – Middle East Institute
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HIFTER LAUNCHES ATTACK TO TAKE SOUTHERN LIBYA & RUSSIA REACTS TO US AFGHAN POLICY

1/16/2019

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Hifter's forces launch offensive in south Libya
Forces loyal to military strongman Khalifa Hifter launched a military offensive in southern Libya, a spokesman for Hifter’s forces said Tuesday. Ahmed al-Mismari said the offensive aims to “secure and protect the residents from terrorists and criminal groups” and to ensure the security of gas and oil facilities. Clashes between local tribes and armed groups are frequent in southern Libya. Read More  
Russia Reacts to U.S. Afghanistan Policy
By Stephen Blank, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "Russia has opposed the United States’ policy in Afghanistan for years. Indeed, Moscow’s own support for the Taliban, in the form of intelligence sharing and arms transfers, goes back to about 2014. Therefore, President Donald Trump’s stated intention to withdraw half of the U.S. troops from Afghanistan, coupled with his suggestion that Russia, Iran and Pakistan do more there to fight terrorism, play directly into Moscow’s hands—and Tehran’s and Islamabad’s as well. "
Albert Wolf writes: America is losing the war in Afghanistan. Neither remaining nor retrenching is a magic solution that can produce a “win” after 17 years of defeats. Both paths are sowed with costs and threats. But it will need to make a choice. – Middle East Institute
  1. The Libyan National Army (LNA) is conducting a counterterrorism campaign to justify its expansion into southwestern Libya. 
    • LNA commander Khalifa Haftar has supported U.S. counterterrorism efforts before, but this partnership is problematic for the U.S.  
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ALTAR FOR THE LOST ARK OF THE COVENANT FOUND

1/15/2019

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https://www.timesofisrael.com/biblical-site-tied-to-ark-of-the-covenant-unearthed-at-convent-in-central-israel/
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THE IDF IN SYRIA & WHY IS US AIR FORCE FIGHTING THE LAST WAR

1/15/2019

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SOUTH ASIA GETS "COLD START" DOCTRINE & IRAN'S TALIBAN TACTICAL ALLIANCE

1/15/2019

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NYT’s Bret Stephens: The man who humbled Qassim Suleimani 
A Cold Start to Nuclear War in South Asia
By Aaron Kliegman, The Washington Free Beacon: “South Asia is home to the ongoing rivalry between India and Pakistan, the international dispute most likely to produce, in the near term, a war between two large, powerful countries in which the belligerents use nuclear weapons.”
Iran and the Taliban: A Tactical Alliance?  By Farhad Rezaei, January 15, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Iran and the Taliban have long had their ups and downs. In 1998, the two sides nearly came to a direct clash when Taliban forces killed Iranian diplomats, though the incident ended without a major conflict. However, the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan, the fear of a resurgent ISIS in Afghanistan, and water issues have prompted Tehran to ramp up its engagement with the Taliban. This tactical alliance will enable Iran to further expand its influence in Afghanistan. 
Continue to full article ->
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FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE DEMOCRACIES LAUNCHES ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL NEWS SITE FOR THE LONG WAR & KURDISH LEADERSHIP AFTER TRUMP'S SYRIAN WITHDRAWL

1/14/2019

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FDD
Farhad Alaaldin writes: Between both changes, and no matter if the leadership is older or younger, one matter remains constant, which is the ongoing political difference between the KDP and the PUK. These differences will linger on for the foreseeable future and with it, Kurdistan will continue to suffer. The people of Kurdistan have had their trust broken with the ruling elite; they expected far more than what they received and it is the duty of the Kurdish leadership to start delivering on the promises made during the elections. – Washington Institute
Ahmed Charai writes: In fact, most of the fighting and dying on behalf of the Afghan government is done not by American forces, but by the vastly larger number of Afghan troops and police whom they train and equip. Thus a tiny sliver of America’s titanous fighting capacity has achieved an impressive multiplier effect by virtue of its local alliances. […]how to gradually wean Afghanistan off any foreign troop dependency, at the heart of the problem lies the difficulty of fostering a government of equity and transparency in Afghanistan and growing public support to defend the state. The U.S. and its allies face a challenge of collaborative institution building, integrity training and cultural engagement. – The Hill
​

Ronald E. Neumann and Earl Anthony Wayne write: President Trump’s decision to reduce forces may be mitigated or even, for a time, rescinded. But the writing is on the wall. A successful Afghan election leading to a strong government could be a major factor in international belief that support for Afghanistan can succeed. Even if this does not occur, a strong Afghan government would have a chance of rallying the country to stand against its enemies. – The Hill
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US STANDS WITH AL-SISI, WHILE TRUMP SURPRISES ERODGAN

1/12/2019

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Tunnel Vision: America and Europe’s distorted view of the Middle East
Clifford D. May, Jonathan Schanzer, Tony Badran — FDD's Foreign Podicy
Iran has a plan. February will be 40 years since Ayatollah Khomeini returned from exile to Tehran to lead what he called an Islamic Revolution, and begin forming a government committed to jihad. By the end of 1979, he was supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. What he and his acolytes intend has been stated clearly and with consistency by Iran’s ruling ayatollahs. They intend to destroy their regional enemies, establish a great new empire and dominate the Middle East. They also intend death to America—that may take longer, but they’re not impatient, and they have friends and family to help. In particular, they have Hezbollah, Iran’s Arab, Shia terrorist proxy. Although based in Lebanon, Hezbollah is willing and able to fight beyond Lebanon’s borders, for example in Syria and, if they can, on Israeli soil—by digging under Israeli soil.... Read more

Israeli Security as the U.S. Leaves Syria
Jonathan Schanzer, Jacob Nagel — RealClearDefense
The Israeli military launched an operation last month to expose and neutralize Hezbollah’s commando tunnels penetrating Israeli territory from Lebanon. According to Israeli officials, the operation is the result of years of precise intelligence collection and the development of cutting-edge technology to pinpoint the tunnels, which were chiseled out of rock deep beneath the ground. The Israeli operation is now reportedly nearing an end, as Israeli military engineers work to fill the tunnels with cement or destroy them. So far, all is calm on the Lebanon border as Israel wraps up its work. But things may not remain calm for long. Tensions are on the rise after President Donald Trump announced by tweet his decision to withdraw American forces from Syria, thereby conveying that Israel will soon be on its own. Israeli defense officials view the president’s decision as a grave mistake. A withdrawal will embolden Iran and its hegemonic designs on the Middle East. Then again, Israel has always operated independently, as seen in the recent Israeli allegedly strikes against Iranian assets in Syria. But without an American presence there, Iran may wrongly seek to exploit the perception of Israeli isolation.... Read more 

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REVIEW OF US LIBYAN POLICY, IRAN TAKES US CITIZEN HOSTAGE & WHY US CENTCOM COMMANDER QUIT

1/12/2019

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FDD
U.S. Balanced Approach on Libya: A Good Step Forward But Not Enough
By Romany Shaker, RealClearDefense: “For years, the United States has distanced itself from the national reconciliation process in Libya, adopting a more limited role that focuses mainly in fighting the Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in the oil-producing North African country. This left room for Libyan stakeholders and their foreign backers to fill the void and prolong the country’s instability.” 
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/envoy-anthony-zinni-tasked-resolving-gulf-crisis-resigns-190108181944237.html
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IS THE IDF READY FOR WAR & US DIPLOMATIC DIARIES ON CREATION OF ISRAEL

1/10/2019

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Is the IDF Ready for All-Out War?
By Yaakov Lappin, January 10, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Israeli military’s state of readiness has dramatically improved, but it has a lot more catching up to do. It has spent years neglecting the ground forces – and those forces will be essential if enemies like Hezbollah are to be decisively defeated.

Continue to full article ->
The Birth of Israel: U.S. Envoy McDonald's Tireless Efforts
by Shlomo Slonim
Middle East Quarterly
Winter 2019

https://www.meforum.org/7264/the-birth-of-israel-us-envoy-mcdonald-tireless

  • Former Israeli minister admits to spying for Iran
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