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TUNISIA, HOME OF ARAB SPRING GETS ANOTHER GOVERNMENT, TRUMP'S TARGET MISS IN YEMEN & ERDOGAN'S MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD MOVEMENT GROWS WHILE IRAN FINDS A SUCCESSOR FOR SOLEIMANI

1/25/2020

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For Tunisia, recovery means modernizing economy
Tunisia’s new government faces the formidable task of reversing the economy's downward spiral of the post-revolutionary years with an eye toward becoming a gateway to Africa.
MEET SOLEIMANI'S SUCCESSOR
WINEP’s Mehdi Khalaji: Iranian succession and the impact of Soleimani’s death
WINEP’s Michael Knights: U.S. do’s and don’ts in Iraq
ISIS launches attacks in Africa while Pentagon shifts focus to 'great powers' Russia and China
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Tunisia’s largest party rejects proposed government 
Tunisia’s moderate Islamist Ennahda party rejected on Monday a proposal to form a government that excludes other parties and said it was ready to contest new elections. The remarks risk upending a second attempt to create a coalition government since October elections in which Ennahda came in first but failed to impose its candidate for prime minister. Tunisian President Kais Saied instead named former Finance Minister Elyes Fakhfakh to the post last week. Fakhfakh has said he wants to replace recent unity coalitions with a Cabinet of parties “aligned with the values of the revolution,” including Ennahda.
Read More  
reuters.com
Tunisia names ex-finance minister as new prime minister 
Tunisian President Kais Saied named former Finance Minister Elyes Fakhfakh as prime minister on Monday in a bid to end political deadlock in the country. Fakhfakh is tasked with forming a government “as soon as possible,” according to the presidency. Tunisia’s parliament rejected Prime Minister-designate Habib Jemli's proposed government earlier this month. Tunisia’s moderate Islamist Ennahda party had nominated Jemli after coming in first in the Oct. 6 elections.
Read More  
dailymail.co.uk
WINEP’s Aaron Y. Zelin: Tunisia turns a corner against the jihadist movem
Iran’s man in Yemen and the al Houthis
 Katherine Zimmerman | AEIdeas
The Washington Post’s revelation of a second US military operation targeting an Iranian commander in Yemen the same night as the air strike that killed Qassem Soleimani has received far less attention than the spectacular Soleimani strike. But Abdul Reza Shahlai deserves some media love.
Erdoğan's 'Make-Turkey-More-Islamic' Campaign Is a Failure by Burak Bekdil
The Gatestone Institute
January 15, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/60310/erdogans-make-turkey-more-islamic-campaign
​From Russia with love: Turkish and Syrian spymasters meet in Moscow
The Moscow meeting between the Turkish and Syrian intelligence chiefs could suggest that a normalization process has finally kicked off between Ankara and Damascus.
Mehdi Khalaji writes: The danger of concentrating so much power in Khamenei’s hands is obvious: what happens when he is gone? Soleimani was an unparalleled alternative authority, someone who likely gave Khamenei peace of mind that the regime could remain stable when the time for transition came around. Even authoritarian regimes benefit from having such safety valves—figures who can offer guidance during times of crisis and expect it to be followed without resorting to coercive measures. Now the prospect of succession likely seems more unnerving to Tehran, and the regime’s future less certain.  – Washington Institute  
​
Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou writes: Thus, it seems that the only real effective strategy in Iran’s “harsh revenge” campaign is to increase the human and financial costs of the U.S. presence in the Gulf. To this end, Iran will likely leverage its extensive network of sympathizers and proxies in neighboring countries and beyond to carry out attacks against U.S.-only targets. Not only would this approach be in line with the regime’s ultimate objective, it would also allow the Iranian leadership to make good on its threats incrementally, at the time and location of its choosing. – Middle East Institute
Ali Alfoneh writes: On January 20, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), appointed Brig. Gen. Mohammad Hossein-Zadeh Hejazi as deputy chief of the Qods Force following Brig. Gen. Esmail Qaani’s elevation to the top post. Who is Hejazi, and what was his background prior to his relatively recent involvement with the Qods Force? – Washington Institute ​
Alexa Santry writes: Today looks remarkably similar to that pivotal Obama moment. ISIS’s territorial caliphate is gone and al Qaeda is quiet. So we’re back to the “not worth it” arguments. But a US abandonment of the region would be catastrophic for American allies, credibility, and power. […]Looking back on US involvement in the Middle East over the past several decades, has American policy been flawed? Yes. Have US presidents been “incapable of mustering a consensus or pursuing a consistent policy” in the region? Also yes. But to argue that “few vital interests of the US continue to be at stake” is a misconception that Americans must not accept. –  American Enterprise Institute ​
Anthony H. Cordesman writes: After all, almost all current U.S. and other international peace efforts lack a clear strategy that goes beyond military victory or conflict termination. […]There is no clear effort or plan to produce a stable peace and create both a workable and lasting structure in any country’s governance, security, or economy. Looking for a hidden motive in the lack of a meaningful peace strategy for Afghanistan can easily end in discovering that a motive does not even exist. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​
Baghdad. DaqDuk: visiting Nasrallah in Lebanon. [Ali Mussa Daqduq (علي موسى دقدوق‎) is a senior Hezbollah leader and senior advisor to Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali.] DaqDuk is afraid now that he knows he’s a target; is hiding hither and yon. A slew of upper Iraqis are trying to blame ISIS or Ba'athist remnants for the rocket attack on the US embassy compound.  DaqDuq is keeping all the militia leaders & Nasrallah from killing each other.  Mohandas had primacy over Iraqi operations, but with him gone, you see sporadic attacks around Iraq.  
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WHY ARE WE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

1/24/2020

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The Middle East is still worth it
Alexa Santry | AEIdeas
America needs the Middle East to grow
Karen E. Young | NationalReview.com
It is an unpopular view in Washington now to say that the Middle East matters, but it does. Not only does the Middle East sit in the middle of a global market that secures our global energy supply, but the region also facilitates the transit of the goods that we and other countries use to grow.
IRAN IMPOVERISHES LEBANON
The Turkish-Qatari Axis Challenges Washington
​
Turkey and Qatar have become brothers in arms, pursuing joint ventures in illicit finance and promoting extremist ideologies. Washington needs to develop a multipronged response to compel Ankara and Doha to curb their malign conduct.
COULD NETANYAHU’S CORRUPTION CASE SCUPPER HIS RE-ELECTION CHANCES?By EPPC Fellow Luma Simms
The Spectator

The Israeli prime minister has shown tremendous political skill over the years.
 Read More
Sovereign risk: Gulf sovereign wealth funds as engines of growth and political resource
Karen E. Young | British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Israel: A Thriving First-World Economy in a Third-World Sea
By Frank Musmar, January 22, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel possesses assets and innovations that can solve many of the problems that plague its Arab neighbors. If peace can possibly be achieved between Israel and the Arab world, the potential for mutually beneficial practical and economic relationships is astronomical.

Continue to full article -
Beware The Fool's Gold Of Diplomacy
by Bruce Thornton via FrontPage Mag.com
Negotiation only gives the Mullahs time.
Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at FDD where he focuses on Iranian security and political issues. Behnam previously served as a research fellow and senior Iran analyst at FDD. Prior to his time at FDD, Behnam worked on non-proliferation issues at an arms control think-tank in Washington. Leveraging his subject-matter expertise and native Farsi skills, Behnam has closely tracked a wide range of Iran-related topics including: nuclear non-proliferation, ballistic missiles, sanctions, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the foreign and security policy of the Islamic Republic, and internal Iranian politics.
 
Related articles:
●        https://thehill.com/opinion/international/479076-iran-is-increasingly-using-missiles-in-its-military-operations-thats-a
●        https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/01/21/arms-embargo-on-iran-set-to-expire-in-less-than-a-year/
●        https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/lifting-the-arms-restrictions-on-iran-what-will-and-wont-change
●        https://www.ft.com/content/740a385a-3924-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4
●        https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-deploy-anti-missile-system-protect-american-troops-iraq
●        https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-israelis-iron-dome-just-cant-be-stopped-110841
●        https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Mystery-surrounds-US-report-that-anti-missile-air-defense-on-way-to-Iraq-615154

Denial of Citizenship as a Weapon of Repression in the Arab World
By Dr. Edy Cohen, January 23, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia recently announced that they were revoking the citizenship of individuals whose “sin” was a connection to Judaism and a pro-Israeli attitude. Apart from the institutional antisemitism these measures reflect, they are a blunt reminder that these are tyrannical states and regimes in which the legal system is little more than a fig leaf.

Continue to full article ->
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WHY IS TURKEY IN LIBYA & LATIN AMERICA BEGINS TO LEAVE IRANIAN INFLUENCE

1/24/2020

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Erdogan's Bold Plan for a New Muslim Brotherhood Regime in Libya by Con Coughlin 
Dr. Aykan Erdemir, senior director of FDD’s Turkey program, is a former member of the Turkish Parliament (2011 to 2015) who served in the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee, EU Harmonization Committee, and the Ad Hoc Parliamentary Committee on the IT Sector and the Internet. As an outspoken defender of pluralism, minority rights, and religious freedoms in the Middle East, Aykan has been at the forefront of the struggle against religious persecution, hate crimes, and hate speech in Turkey. 
Relevant articles:

·     
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-cyprus-idUSKBN1ZI0G0?taid=5e24a0730a3ab60001228917&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
·         https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/turkey-sends-forces-libya-play-natural-gas
·         https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-seeks-big-contempt-fines-194037063.html
·         https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/01/israel-turkey-greece-cyprus-benjamin-netanyahu-natural-gas.html
·         https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/01/berlin-conference-libya-turkey-clout-negotiations.htm
Joseph M. Humire is a global security expert, specializing on trans-regional threats in the Western Hemisphere. Mr. Humire provides regular briefings and lectures on international terrorism, transnational organized crime, Islamism and Iran and Hezbollah’s influence in the Americas to various entities within the U.S. national security community, as well as prominent think tanks and universities worldwide.
 Related articles:
●        https://www.timesofisrael.com/pompeo-praises-3-south-american-countries-for-declaring-hezbollah-a-terror-group/
●        https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-deas-targeting-of-hezbollahs-global-criminal-support-network
●        https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-prioritizes-fight-against-iran-backed-narcoterrorist-network-obama-neglected-dea-official
●        https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/nightmare-in-venezuela-maduros-alliance-with-hezbollah-raises-specter-of-terror-threat-analysts-say
●        https://www.wsj.com/articles/soleimanis-latin-america-terror-11578863631
●        https://www.politico.eu/article/us-ambassadors-push-eu-to-ban-hezbollah/
●        https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/hezbollah-major-architect-lebanons-government-200122143439455.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-16/libya-explains-why-turkey-has-no-friends
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IRANIAN LEADERSHIP HOLDS ON. . . BARELY & SERVICEMEN DIES BY TALIBAN IGNORED BY US MEDIA

1/16/2020

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http://www.rawa.org/temp/runews/2016/05/07/horrific-video-shows-taliban-publicly-killing-woman-over-adultery.html#ixzz6AyQxkYaL  
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OMAN STILL MATTERS:  GREGORY COPLEY, EDITOR DEFENSE & FOREIGN AFFAIRS REVEALS WHY

1/16/2020

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HOW IS FRANCES' COUNTER-TERROR POLICY IN AFRIA DOING? WHAT'S THE MIDDLE EAST GOOD FOR?  VICTOR DAVIS HANSEN ANSWERS

1/11/2020

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France's Counterterrorism Efforts in West Africa and the Sahel with Michael Shurkin
  Is the Trump Administration trying to find an exit, or rather to change our posture in the Middle East?  It’s trying to collapse all the reasons we’ve been there for 70 years down to a smaller footprint. Those currently dependent on Middle Eastern oil are primarily China and the EU.  Why do we still have troops there? Because we don't want the oil wealth to accumulate in hands that will create a nuclear bomb; and we don't want to create a platform for the likes of Black September, or the later al Q and ISIS.
       Soleimani had one great gift: he understood the Obama Administration  . . . China takes about 40% of the oil that goes through the Strait of Hormuz.

  https://amgreatness.com/2020/01/05/what-is-the-middle-east-in-the-middle-of-anymore/
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WHAT'S PAKISTAN'S NEXT MOVE IN KASHMIR

1/6/2020

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Anticipating Pakistan’s Next Move in Kashmir by Nishank Motwani 
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