The Battle for the Soul of Islam
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, January 17, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The battle for the soul of Islam pits rival Middle Eastern and Asian powers against one another: Turkey, seat of the Islamic world’s last true caliphate; Saudi Arabia, home to the faith’s holy cities; the United Arab Emirates (UAE), propagator of a militantly statist interpretation of Islam; Qatar, with its less strict version of Wahhabism and penchant for political Islam; Indonesia, promoting a humanitarian, pluralistic notion of Islam that reaches out to other faiths as well as non-Muslim center-right forces across the globe; Morocco, which uses religion as a way to position itself as the face of moderate Islam; and Shiite Iran, with its derailed revolution.
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By Dr. James M. Dorsey, January 17, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The battle for the soul of Islam pits rival Middle Eastern and Asian powers against one another: Turkey, seat of the Islamic world’s last true caliphate; Saudi Arabia, home to the faith’s holy cities; the United Arab Emirates (UAE), propagator of a militantly statist interpretation of Islam; Qatar, with its less strict version of Wahhabism and penchant for political Islam; Indonesia, promoting a humanitarian, pluralistic notion of Islam that reaches out to other faiths as well as non-Muslim center-right forces across the globe; Morocco, which uses religion as a way to position itself as the face of moderate Islam; and Shiite Iran, with its derailed revolution.
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"IDF chief of staff warns of return to Iran nuclear deal, details response to proxies,"
Joe Truzman, FDD's Long War Journal
Joe Truzman, FDD's Long War Journal
In a January 27, 2021 article titled “Iran Continues to Test Biden’s Limits,” senior Saudi journalist ‘Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rahsed notes that Iran welcomed the Biden administration with a series of provocations – namely the December 20, 2020 rocket attack on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and with the January 23, 2021 Houthi attack on Riyadh – so as to test the patience of the U.S. and its allies and their willingness to retaliate. – Middle East Media Research Institute
Victoria Coates and Len Khodorkovsky write: Driven by a revolutionary theology, the Islamic Republic’s regime has been metastasizing across the region since its founding in 1979. From funding and arming anti-Israel terrorists, to blowing up Saudi oil facilities, to pirating commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, Iran is the Middle East’s preeminent menace. Not only is it out of step with the Abraham Accords, Iran is the neighborhood’s chief purveyor of discord. – Jerusalem Post
Victoria Coates and Len Khodorkovsky write: Driven by a revolutionary theology, the Islamic Republic’s regime has been metastasizing across the region since its founding in 1979. From funding and arming anti-Israel terrorists, to blowing up Saudi oil facilities, to pirating commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, Iran is the Middle East’s preeminent menace. Not only is it out of step with the Abraham Accords, Iran is the neighborhood’s chief purveyor of discord. – Jerusalem Post
Michael Knights writes: U.S. officials are right not to overreact to what may have been a probe of Riyadh’s airspace, and the Saudis may have their own reasons to save face and downplay the penetrations. If left unchecked, however, such probes may become bolder, especially if Tehran’s motive is to splinter the U.S.-Saudi and U.S.-Emirati relationships and coerce Washington into providing sanctions relief more quickly. The Biden administration should therefore take appropriate and measured steps in response: – Washington Institute
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran under sanctions has not been able to modernize many parts of its regular army and navy. That means relying on ships and planes that are many decades old. Sometimes Iran even uses old US Boeings, C-130s and other planes from the era of the shah. Sutton points out that Iran still has several smaller 600-ton Fateh-class submarines, but these also don’t seem to be active. Iran’s submarines are not ancient: They were built in the 1990s. However it is unclear what is wrong also with them – and how this setback may harm Iran’s capabilities. – Jerusalem Post
Isabel Ivanescu writes: Fighting between pro-Assad regime forces and local opposition elements in Dera’a Province is at its most intense since Russia brokered reconciliation agreements between the two factions in 2018. […]There has been an inflection in Russian behavior, however; Russia did not intervene to stop the first assault on the town by Iranian-backed forces and threatened to itself carry out airstrikes in the vicinity if locals refused to turn over individuals wanted by the regime. This may represent a Russian belief that Tafas, a hub of anti-Assad activity, will be less likely to capitulate than other towns in which similar events have previously transpired. – Institute for the Study of War
Mason Clark writes: The United States and its allies must prepare to confront an increasingly effective Russian military that is intent on further developing expeditionary capabilities and using them in coalition environments. Russia is still involved in and still learning from the conflict in Syria. […]The Russian military’s learning from Syria is driving Russian modernization efforts; the United States must understand this learning and adaptation to confront the Kremlin effectively. – Institute for the Study of War
Katherine Lawlor and Nicholas Carl write: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias likely conducted a kamikaze drone attack into Saudi Arabia on January 23, 2021, for the second time in recent years. This attack could indicate a significant change in how the Iranian regime imposes pressure on its adversaries around the Persian Gulf. The potential expansion of Iraqi proxies’ ability and willingness to target foreign states in ostensibly deniable ways and in coordination with other components of the Axis of Resistance would pose a growing security challenge to the US and its regional partners. – Institute for the Study of War
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Saudi Arabia has become a testing ground for how a country can create multi-layered and integrated air defense to stop the drones. […]Riyadh, a key ally of the US, may get advice on how best to continue to confront the threats. Evidence shows that it has done a good job downing drones and missiles in recent years. The question is whether the threats will grow as Tehran seeks to target US allies to put pressure on them and Washington, and to test new weapons. – Jerusalem Post
Arif Rafiq writes: In recent years, cooperation between Pakistan and Turkey has strengthened not just in the defense, diplomatic, and economic realms, but also in the cultural space, causing geopolitical ripple effects in the Himalayas, the Arabian Peninsula, and the South Caucasus. The emerging Pakistan-Turkey entente now has the buy-in of Pakistan’s leading political parties and three military services, as well as the Turkish leadership. – Middle East Institute
Rostec announced this week it has begun developing the MiG-41, a fifth-generation fighter jet set to replace Russia’s MiG-31 jets currently in service. However, amid a number of other ongoing military aerospace projects, experts are questioning whether industry has the resources to produce the aircraft by its deadline of 2030. – Defense News
Pro-regime spokespersons and surrogates attempted to denigrate Navalny and dismiss the demonstrations as miniscule and over-reliant upon impressionable minors, who additionally served as human shields to deter an effective police response to the demonstrators. […]Below is MEMRI’s review of the events surrounding Navalny’s arrest. – Middle East Media Research Institute
Pro-regime spokespersons and surrogates attempted to denigrate Navalny and dismiss the demonstrations as miniscule and over-reliant upon impressionable minors, who additionally served as human shields to deter an effective police response to the demonstrators. […]Below is MEMRI’s review of the events surrounding Navalny’s arrest. – Middle East Media Research Institute
Steve Cohen writes: The problem is not just China’s emergence as a maritime power; it is our own seemingly apathetic willingness to cede dominance at sea. Although the past two administrations have agreed that the Navy needs a minimum number of 355 ships to meet its assigned roles, we have taken too few steps to appropriate the necessary funds to expand the fleet or identify what its composition ought to be. The current plan is too small, too slow, too fearful of making more mistakes in the acquisition process. – The Hill
Mark F. Cancian writes: Great power competition has returned after a generation of absence, and the U.S. military edge over prospective opponents is eroding. Whereas the United States previously could overwhelm adversaries with sheer force, if necessary, it now needs every advantage it can get. This study analyzes how the United States might inflict surprise on its adversaries to gain a strategic advantage. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Preventing a Hegemonic Iran
Featuring H. R. McMaster via Policy EdThe United States’ conciliatory foreign policy approach to Iran has overlooked the hostile ideology that drives the regime. Understanding Iranian behavior begins with employing strategic empathy to fully understand the Iranian leadership’s ideology and its desire for hegemonic influence in the Middle East. The United States should improve defenses against the Iranian military and its terrorist proxies, disrupt Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon, and communicate with the Iranian people to expose the regime’s corruption.
Featuring H. R. McMaster via Policy EdThe United States’ conciliatory foreign policy approach to Iran has overlooked the hostile ideology that drives the regime. Understanding Iranian behavior begins with employing strategic empathy to fully understand the Iranian leadership’s ideology and its desire for hegemonic influence in the Middle East. The United States should improve defenses against the Iranian military and its terrorist proxies, disrupt Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon, and communicate with the Iranian people to expose the regime’s corruption.
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