Editorial: Mr. Putin, who has frequently hinted that he could be willing to dispense with Mr. Assad, has been trying to orchestrate a new Syrian peace process with Turkey that all but excludes the United States. Predictably, it is going nowhere — in part because, as The Post’s Liz Sly reports, players on both sides are waiting to see what stance the new U.S. administration adopts. This is leverage that Mr. Trump should use: If Mr. Putin wants his help to settle the Syrian conflict and protect Russia’s interests there, he should be obliged to split with Iran and abandon a regime that drops chlorine on women and children. – Washington Post

Rubin Center Israel

The biggest surviving rebel stronghold in northern Syria is falling under the control of al-Qaeda-linked extremists amid a surge of rebel infighting that threatens to vanquish what is left of the moderate rebellion. – Washington Post

After 16 years, Afghanistan’s long war shows no sign of taking a day off, even in midwinter. On Tuesday, 11 police officers were killed in a Taliban attack in the south, but that was only one in a long and not unusual series of assaults against Afghan security forces. In recent weeks, there have been several episodes in which two or three Afghan police officers were killed. – New York Times
 
Afghan Taliban militants said they attacked police, military and intelligence targets in Kabul on Wednesday and security officials confirmed attacks in at least two areas of the city that killed at least three people and wounded dozens. – Reuters

Sohrab Ahmari writes: Absent America’s stabilizing touch, this part of the world can generate ethno-sectarian energies and brutality on the Syria scale at a flight distance of two hours from Berlin. There are worse things in this world than being accused of hegemony. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Anne Bayefsky writes: Substituting a Human Rights “Council” for a Human Rights “Commission” that retains the same fatal flaws — starting with membership for the quintessential very bad dudes — is the classic example of what the U.N., and the Obama administration, have meant by “reform.” Will the Trump administration follow suit and make yet another speech about fixing the unfixable? – National Review Online

Why A Regional Peace Process Will Fail

Trump Administration vs Russia & China in the Middle East. @richardfontaine @cnasdc

A century after Sykes-Picot, the lines drawn by British and French diplomats are under pressure like never before. So too is the traditional Middle Eastern model of governance, stability and prosperity. America’s response to the Middle East challenge should aim not to redivide the Middle East, nor to dominate or depart it. As states outside the region increasingly discern interests there, and generate the will and capacity to pursue them, the resurgence of great-power politics in the Middle East will transform American strategy.

As this process plays out, there will remain one irreducible reality. The United States alone retains the unique ability to forge partnerships among these actors to advance not just parochial, short-term interests but the broader security, stability and prosperity needed to prevent the region’s further collapse. It is time to start the endeavor.
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http://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-no-longer-the-middle-easts-greatest-power-19461?page=show

Selling Trump a New Afghanistan Commitment 
From Josh Rogin, Washington Post: “After more than 15 years of U.S. fighting, the war is at a crossroads. The Afghan national security forces are on their heels. The government is asking the United States and its NATO partners to help it go on offense against the Taliban, which has been taking territory with the help of Pakistan, Iran and Russia. The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. John W. Nicholson, has publicly testified that he wants “a few thousand” more troops there. He also says there is a need for a more “holistic review” of the mission.”

Josh Rogin reports: The Trump administration is considering whether to plunge more resources and troops into the United States’ longest war — Afghanistan — as some of the president’s top generals are calling for. The issue pits President Trump’s commitment to end nation-building against his promise to stamp out terrorism in a conflict where a clear U.S. strategy is sorely lacking. – Washington Post

The Plan to Stabilize Afghanistan:  

• Report: Stabilizing battlefield key to Afghanistan peace

Bodyguards of Afghan Vice President Rashid Dostum who are wanted over allegations of torture and abuse have been questioned by the authorities after weeks of refusing to cooperate, officials say. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
 
Afghanistan and Pakistan are coming back into view as centers of terror and unrest potentially every bit as dangerous to the United States as the so-called Islamic State that operates in Iraq and Syria. And Afghanistan’s a part of the world where McMaster discovered his hard charging left him with limp results. – The Daily Beast

Kelly Magsamen writes: [C]oherent national security strategy is profoundly influenced by three key institutional relationships — between the White House and the Pentagon, between civilians and the military inside the Pentagon, and between the State Department and the Pentagon. What follows are some recommendations for how the Trump team can try to reach a healthy equilibrium in all three. – Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government

Seeing Gray in the Next World War
From Neil Hollenbeck and Benjamin Jensen, War on the Rocks: "Next to a strong country lays a weaker neighbor internally divided by a long-running political struggle.  Many yearn for unification with the stronger country, with whom they share cultural ties.  But many others are determined to maintain their country’s independence.  By overt and clandestine means, the stronger country skillfully shapes political events across the border.  As the pro-independence party clings to power in this weaker country, their strong neighbor uses a variety of means — from coercive diplomacy to influence operations and bribery — to undermine democratic institutions.  As the situation in the weaker country slips into violence, the stronger neighbor fabricates an official request for military assistance and announces it will send forces to “restore order” with the full consent of its weaker neighbor. Confusion reigns as a misinformation campaign, causing some to believe their head of government has resigned.  Recognizing defeat is imminent, the head of the weaker country’s government relinquishes power to a pro-unification politician.  The country’s military does not resist when forces enter from across the border.  Soon thereafter, news outlets report that a popular referendum shows 99.7 percent favor unification, ratifying the fait acompli.  No shots were fired."

• General Keane and James Jeffreyon the battle for Mosul

• US troops move closer to the front lines in Mosul fight
• Mattis to decide soon on US troop levels in Afghanistan

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, on the first visit by a senior Trump administration official to Iraq, worked on Monday to repair breaches of trust with Iraq’s leaders caused by his boss just as the two sides began a major offensive to oust the Islamic State from its last stronghold in the country. – New York Times
 
Iraqi forces resumed their offensive against the Islamic State in Mosul on Sunday after a weeks-long pause, aiming to capture the militant-controlled western half of the city, where the tight, impassable streets and teeming neighborhoods will pose a formidable challenge to the advancing fighters. – Washington Post
 
The Pentagon is deploying U.S. military advisers closer to the front lines in the campaign against the Islamic State as Iraqi security forces wrestle for control of the city of Mosul, the top U.S. commander here said Monday. – Washington Post
 
Several hundred thousand civilians are enduring desperate conditions and facing retribution by Islamic State fighters in western Mosul as Iraqi forces prepare to attack militants who control the city’s western half, according to residents and humanitarian groups. – New York Times
 
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Monday he believes U.S. forces will be in Iraq and in the fight against Islamic State militants for a while, despite some rocky times between the two nations. – Associated Press

• Fontaine, Singh: Is America no longer the Mideast’s great power?

• Trump will not press “two state solution” with Netanyahu

Analysis: The Trump administration plans to focus on an “outside-in” approach, meaning that Israel would first pursue agreements with Arab countries to help solve the conflict with the Palestinians. But that is a long shot, experts say, given some of the crises gripping the region: Saudi Arabia is mired in a war in Yemen; Egypt is reeling from economic and security concerns; and Jordan is focused on securing its borders with Iraq and Syria. – New York Times

President Trump said on Wednesday that the United States would no longer insist on a Palestinian state as part of a peace accord between Israel and the Palestinians, backing away from a policy that has underpinned America’s role in Middle East peacemaking since the Clinton administration. – New York Times
 
Palestinians reacted with anger and bafflement on Wednesday after the Trump administration apparently backed away from insisting that having two states — one for Israelis, one for Palestinians — was the only viable solution to the decades-long Middle East conflict. – New York Times
 
The Trump administration’s shift away from calling for a separate Palestinian state as part of a peace deal with Israel brings U.S. policy closer to the stance of the Jewish settler movement but puts it at odds with longstanding positions of European, Arab and other allies. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
In the days leading up to Mr. Netanyahu’s first meeting with Mr. Trump as president, and Mr. Friedman’s confirmation hearings, which are expected to start on Thursday, the mood in Beit El seemed to encapsulate all the uncertainty and contradictions manifested by the new administration. – New York Times
 
Editorial: A U.S.-Israeli deal limiting construction to existing communities close to Israel’s borders would have the practical effect of preserving the possibility of side-by-side states. If Mr. Trump really wants to broker a deal, he should start by pressing Mr. Netanyahu for such a commitment. – Washington Post