CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR - CounterStrikeMedia

NEW TERROR THREAT INSIDE PAKISTAN & INDIA PREPARES FOR WAR

2/28/2018

PAKISTAN: A New Strand of Islamist Extremism in Pakistan
By Farhan Zahid, Terrorism Monitor: “Barelvism is a South Asian variant of Sufi Islam and is widely practiced in the region. While there are no official figures, it is possible that about 70 percent of Pakistanis adhere to the Hanafi-Sunni sect of Islam, and of those more than half are Barelvi Sunni.

NEWSWEEK PAKISTAN

Afghanistan offers amnesty to the Taliban in a bid to end 16-year war
(Los Angeles Times) Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on Wednesday extended an olive branch to the Taliban, offering amnesty for war crime convictions and recognition of the insurgent group as a political party in a bid to end the nation's conflict, now in its 17th year.

India prepares first industrial corridor
(IHS Jane’s 360) The Ministry of Defence (MoD) in New Delhi has started to prepare for the establishment of India’s first defence industrial corridor in the country’s southernmost state of Tamil Nadu.

Indian MoD approves procurements worth USD1.44 billion
(IHS Jane’s 360) India’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has approved procurements worth INR94.25 billion (USD1.44 billion) that include 350,000 of 5.56 mm close quarter battle (CQB) carbines and 41,000 of 7.62 mm light machine guns (LMGs) for all three military services.

IRANIAN MILITIAS: LEADERSHIP REVIEW

2/28/2018

FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES

Israel’s goal in its next war in the north will be to “reach a decisive victory” including the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, a senior Israel Defense Forces official said Wednesday. - Haaretz

Israel views the freshly-discovered permanent Iranian base established outside of the Syrian capital of Damascus as a manifestation of the Islamic Republic’s growing military power in the war-torn country, the Hebrew news site Walla reported on Wednesday. - Algemeiner

A rift between Israel and the United States regarding Iranian entrenchment in Syria appears to be widening, ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s scheduled meeting on Monday with US President Donald Trump. - Times of Israel

Ahmad Majidyar writes: Iran’s growing water shortage and other environmental challenges have recently reached a crisis point. Water scarcity and air pollution have not only triggered sociopolitical and security problems inside the country but have also caused tension between Iran and its neighbors. - Middle East Institute

Time and again, Russia has failed to deliver the regime of Bashar al-Assad on Moscow’s promises to facilitate an end the Syrian civil war or even to have it comply with temporary ceasefires, the commander of U.S. Central Command told the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday. - USNI News

PAKISTAN GETS ON TERROR LIST: JUNE 2018

2/26/2018

U.S., PAKISTAN: Pakistan Turns to Russia in Managing Relations With the U.S.
By Kathy Gannon, AP: “As Pakistan navigates its troubled relationship with the United States and scrambles to avoid being blacklisted for doing too little, too late to stop terror funding, regional alliances are shifting and analysts ponder whether a cozier relationship with countries like Russia will complicate efforts to move toward peace in neighboring Afghanistan.”

Russia Changing The Signposts In Pakistan
(Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty) First, a Russian military delegation made a rare visit to Pakistan's lawless tribal areas. Then Russian-language signposts were erected on roads in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Now, Moscow has appointed an honorary consul in the city of Peshawar.

As Pakistan navigates its troubled relationship with the United States and scrambles to avoid being blacklisted for doing too little, too late to stop terror funding, regional alliances are shifting and analysts ponder whether a cozier relationship with countries like Russia will complicate efforts to move toward peace in neighboring Afghanistan. - Associated Press

At the urging of the Trump administration, an international task force has decided to place Pakistan on a terrorism-financing watch list, a decision that has stunned and alarmed Pakistani officials and one that could deliver a major blow to the nation’s economy. - New York Times

Saudi Arabia backed down under pressure from the U.S. and allowed Pakistan to be placed on an international terror-financing watch list, officials from countries involved in the decision said Friday, dealing a blow to the South Asian country’s struggling economy. - Wall Street Journal

India and Pakistan have exchanged artillery fire in the disputed Kashmir region forcing hundreds of people to flee, police in Indian Kashmir said, raising fresh doubts about a 15-year-old ceasefire between the nuclear-armed rivals in the area. - Reuters

Afghanistan ready to play connector role in Eurasian integration
(Asia Times) The inauguration of TAPI – the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline – signals Kabul is on-board with the grand project of Eurasian integration

America Will Never Win The War In Afghanistan
(Task & Purpose) According to an in-depth investigation conducted by BBC News reporters in late 2017, the Taliban fully control four percent of Afghanistan’s districts and “have an active and open physical presence” in 66 percent of the remaining ones. They found that roughly half of the Afghan people “are living in areas that are either controlled by the Taliban or where the Taliban are openly present and regularly mount attacks.”

CHANGES IN SAUDI POLICY: TARGET DOMESTIC POLICY

2/26/2018

Memo to the President on Saudi Arabia
(New York Times) It’s only a matter of time before King Salman turns over the reins of power to M.B.S., who’s already the effective ruler. M.B.S. is not a democrat, nor is he interested in promoting democracy. He’s a modernizing autocrat.

Saudi Arabia has long been the dominant force in oil, leaving the world at the mercy of its ambitions and its interests. Now the kingdom must refresh its strategy to reflect a weaker hand — and in many ways, a different game. - New York Times

At least 14 people were killed and 40 wounded when Islamist car suicide bombers and gunmen tried to storm the headquarters of a counter-terrorism unit in the southern port city of Aden on Saturday, security and medical sources said. - Reuters

Editorial: The last thing the Middle East needs is another country with the potential to build nuclear weapons. Yet that could happen if the United States mishandles Saudi Arabia’s plans to enter the nuclear power business and erect as many as 16 nuclear reactors for electricity generation over 25 years. - New York Times

ALLAH'S ANGELS: CHECHEN FEMALE SUICIDE BOMBERS & THE TSARNAEV BROTHERS

2/24/2018

THE QUAD CAN WIN AGAINST CHINA

2/24/2018

China encroaches on India’s sphere of influence
Sadanand Dhume | The Wall Street Journal
Is India still top dog in its neighborhood? Unless New Delhi swiftly restores democracy, it risks looking ineffectual in the face of Chinese inroads into India’s traditional zone of influence.

Revived ‘Quad’ alliance eggs on China’s response
BY RICHARD JAVAD HEYDARIAN
US, India, Japan, Australia 'quadrilateral' paradigm aims to contain China and supplant Asean in shaping the region's security architecture

THE MYTH OF THE GREAT SATAN: ABBAS MILANI ON U.S. IRANIAN RELATIONS

2/23/2018

Red Sea Rising
By Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, RealClearDefense: “Iran has been prohibited from exporting arms and related material since 2007 under UNSCR 1747 and has been violating it since.”

Iranian Cruise Missiles Also a Proliferation Threat
By Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD: “Since the conclusion of the nuclear deal in July 2015, Iran has launched as many as 23 ballistic missiles, despite the prohibition of such activities by UN Security Council 2231.”

AMAZON

AUTHOR TWITTER ACCOUNT @milaniabbas

FACULTY PAGE STANFORD UNIVERSITY

Abbas Milani On The John Batchelor Show
interview with Abbas Milani via The John Batchelor Show
Hoover Institution fellow Abbas Milani discusses the relationship between the US and Iran.

LIBYA: DEEP DIVE: For a more in-depth look at the situation in Libya, revisit Estelle’s major report from last fall, “A Strategy for Success in Libya,” or watch the launch event for the report at AEI here.

IRAN: Politicians and pundits are focused on President Donald Trump’s upcoming decision on May 12 to either once again waive sanctions on Iran, keeping the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in place, or to deny sanctions relief, effectively killing the deal. But is focusing on the nuclear issue missing the forest for the trees? In his recently released six-part blog series, “Pushback: Countering Iran in an evolving Middle East,” Kenneth Pollack outlines a comprehensive strategy that the United States should pursue to limit Iran’s influence in the Middle East. Read the series here.

SOUTH ASIAN POLICY: GROUND ZERO FOR THE ASIAN-INDO PACIFIC

2/22/2018

New submarine rescue system set for delivery to Indian Navy
(IHS Jane’s 360) UK-based underwater engineering and services group JFD has completed the build and integration of the first of two new submarine rescue systems for the Indian Navy (IN).

P-8 Poseidon: Countering Chinese Aggression in the Indo-Pacific
By Rathna K. Muralidharan, RealClearDefense: “As Beijing’s military continues to encroach on its neighbors’ naval territories and claim international waters for itself, Pacific countries are looking for systems to monitor and secure their borders.”

America Needs to Reorient Its South Asia Policy
By Akhilesh Pillalamarri, RealClearDefense: “South Asia is at the center of global geopolitical and economic trends. It is a rapidly developing region, containing a quarter of the world’s people. India, soon to be the world’s most populous country, is the fastest growing major economy in the world, having surpassed China last year.”

Trump's Aimless War in Afghanistan Expands, Again // Danny Sjursen
Why is the U.S. bombing Chinese separatists, and what does it say about the flailing war effort in Afghanistan?

The Key to Success in Afghanistan Is Logistics
By Daniel Gouré, RealClearDefense: “A competent and sustainable ANDSF is essential to the U.S. strategy of eventually transitioning security responsibilities to the Afghan government.”

U.S. MOVES TO PREVENT TURKEY FALLING INTO RUSSIAN ORBIT & WHERE'S U.S. POLICY GOING IN MIDDLE EAST

2/22/2018

U.S. moves to halt Turkey’s drift toward Iran and Russia

WSJ editorial: Iran’s Syrian front
NY Times editorial: Who has innocent Syrians’ blood on their hands

Jon B. Alterman writes: But those looking to see where U.S. Middle East policy is heading should look to Yemen, not Syria. In Yemen, the U.S. government has treated the conflict at arm’s length. - Center for Strategic and International Studies

New ‘Hybrid’ Plots Revealed in Russian Anti-Western Policy
By Pavel K. Baev, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “The stunning defeat in the Euphrates valley signifies a further mutation of the multi-party Syrian war, where Russia sought to augment its reduced intervention with expanded “hybrid” engagement.”

THE SAUDI'S WANT TO GO NUCLEAR WITH U.S. HELP & HOW TO FIX YEMENI CIVIL WAR

2/21/2018

WINEP’s Simon Henderson: Saudi nuclear power plants & proliferation

WSJ

Netanyahu warns U.S. lawmakers about Saudi nuclear power deal

Saudi Arabia vows to acquire nuclear weapons if Iran does
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman vowed that his country would pursue a nuclear weapon if Iran did during a Thursday preview of an interview on CBS ahead of his visit to Washington next week. The crown prince, who is also defense minister, said his country does not want to pursue nuclear weapons, but added “without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we would follow suit as soon as possible.” He also called Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “the new Hitler of the Middle East.” Read More

At a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna last September, word spread that Saudi Arabia had identified a handful of countries that could build two nuclear reactors in the kingdom. The U.S. wasn’t among them -- until Energy Secretary Rick Perry buttonholed the Saudi delegates and told them America wanted in. - Bloomberg

Evelyn Gordon writes: Today, the Arab world still has the numbers and the oil, but it’s siding with Israel against Iran. So for any realist who holds that America should align itself with Arab concerns because numbers and oil are crucial considerations, the top priority now shouldn’t be another fruitless Israeli-Palestinian peace process, but reining in Iran’s malignant behavior. - Commentary Magazine

Saudis hire legal muscle for US nuclear negotiations
Saudi Arabia has hired an international law firm specializing in energy regulation in its efforts to extract a favorable agreement on civil nuclear cooperation from the United States. Newly published lobbying disclosures reveal that the Saudi Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources hired Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman in the past few days to “advise” it on “a potential bilateral agreement with the United States concerning peaceful uses of nuclear energy.” Saudi insistence on retaining certain capabilities that could be used to produce nuclear weapons faces steep resistance in Congress even as some elements of the Donald Trump administration seem open to a more flexible deal. Read More

Saudi Arabia’s nuclear energy play
Andrew Bowen | AEIdeas

The Trump administration is opening talks with Saudi Arabia on a potentially lucrative atomic energy agreement that’s inextricably linked to an Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran. At stake: billions of dollars in contracts for U.S. companies and bigger questions about America’s ability to keep friend and foe alike from reaching nuclear weapons capability. - Associated Press

FIXING YEMEN
Read the full brief, featuring expert commentary by:

ETHIOPIA, AL-QAEDA & IRAN: UNREST, THE VIEW

2/21/2018

Below are the takeaways from the week:

Ethiopia may descend into widespread unrest following the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn. The Ethiopian government declared a six-month state of emergency in response to continued protests and strikes by members of a marginalized ethnic group. The ruling party has not yet made sufficient concessions to the protesters. Unrest in Ethiopia has serious implications for regional stability and for the African Union Mission in Somalia, which relies in part on Ethiopian forces to fight al Shabaab.
Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri reiterated his call for the Muslim community to unite and establish shari'a-based governance. Zawahiri urged Egyptians to reinvigorate the Arab Spring and overthrow the secular government ahead of the upcoming Egyptian elections. He separately emphasized the need for groups in Syria to remain united amid new reports of splintering among al Qaeda's Syrian affiliates.
The Gonabadi Dervish protests in Tehran may result in the reignition of widespread anti-regime protests throughout Iran. Peaceful protests soon turned violent resulting in the imprisonment of 360 protesters and the death of at least five security officials on February 19. The renewal of widespread anti-regime protests may be forthcoming if the regime continues to squash peaceful assemblies and deny licenses for peaceful protests. [To learn more about the recent anti-regime protests in Iran, please view “Iranian Anti-Regime Protests and Security Flaws.”]

Find additional analysis on the Libya conflict below this message and online. There, you will also see our maps and timelines from the past week.

WHY JUDEA & SAMARIA MAY BE LOST FOR ISRAEL

2/21/2018

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Sunday that his country will hit Iran directly if Tehran uses Syria to test Israel. - Wall Street Journal

MIDDLE EAST FORUM

PUSHBACK ON IRAN: HOW ITS DONE

2/21/2018

History’s Real Lessons on Iran
By Tzvi Fleischer, The Strategist (ASPI): “Several recent articles have called on President Donald Trump to change the Iran policy of the United States based on ‘past lessons’ and Persian history.”

Earlier today, Kenneth Pollack released the final essay in his new six-part series, “Pushback: Countering Iran in an evolving Middle East.” This series addresses why the US needs a comprehensive strategy to push back on Iran and proposes specific policy prescriptions that will limit Iran’s influence in the region. Pollack argues that in Syria, the US should adopt a “Mujahideen strategy” by resuming support to opposition groups to drain Iran’s resources and strain their economy. On the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran deal, Pollack concludes that although the JCPOA has significant shortcomings, there isn’t a better agreement yet, and the US should remain committed for now. Lastly, regime change in Tehran is ultimately desirable but is not the primary goal of this strategy, as the costs of being overtly focused on regime change are too high. The US should reserve this option as a deterrent. Access the series here.

National University of Iran’s Mahmood Sariolghalam on Iran’s foreign policy

Iran general’s profile rises as Tehran flexes Mideast muscle

Katherine Bauer writes: By focusing on Tehran's struggle to reach an acceptable legal definition of terrorism, Washington can avoid further politicizing the traditionally technocratic effort to bring Iranian banks in line with international norms. - Washington Institute for Near East Policy

WINEP's Jackson Doering: U.S. militia problem in Syria is an Iran problem
Turkey warns Syria against protecting Kurdish fighters

Iran, deeply embedded in Syria, expands ‘axis of resistance’
Iranian airline, under sanctions, bought U.S. jet parts with front firms
Iran’s oil revenue plummets as U.S. oil exports grow

THE GOOD GUYS LOST: FROM KABUL TO BAGHDAD & THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD AND THE EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION

2/15/2018

Winning Battles, Losing Wars:
The Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Revolution
By Joseph Hamond, Modern War Institute: “At the height of the 2011 uprising against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood made a fateful decision. The Brotherhood’s senior leadership decided to stage a protest in front of Egypt’s Ministry of Interior, long the symbol of state oppression, with the ultimate goal of storming the building.”

"Everyone knows the good guys lost:" From Kabul to Baghdad and Back: PART 1 of 2: The U.S. at War in Afghanistan and Iraq. by John R. Ballard and David W. Lamm

From Kabul to Baghdad and Back provides insight into the key strategic decisions of the Afghan and Iraq campaigns as the United States attempted to wage both simultaneously against al-Qaeda and its supporting affiliates.

It also evaluates the strategic execution of those military campaigns to identify how well the two operations were conducted in light of their political objectives. The book identifies the elements that made the 2001 military operation to oust the Taliban successful, then with combat operations in Iraq as a standard of comparison, the authors analyze the remainder of the Afghan campaign and the essential problems that plagued that effort, from the decision to go to war with Iraq in 2002, through the ill-fated transition to NATO lead in Afghanistan in 2006, the dismissal of Generals McKiernan and McChrystal, the eventual decision by President Obama to make the Afghan campaign the main effort in the war on extremism, and the final development of drawdown plans following the end of the war in Iraq.

No other book successfully compares and contrasts the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan from a national strategic perspective, analyzing the impact of fighting the Iraq War on the success of the United States campaign in Afghanistan. It is also the first book to specifically question several key operational decisions in Afghanistan including: the decision to give NATO the lead in Afghanistan, the decisions to fire Generals McKiernan and McChrystal and the decision to conduct an Iraq War-style surge in Afghanistan.

It also compares the Afghan campaigns fought by the Soviet Union and the United States, the counterinsurgency campaigns styles in Iraq and Afghanistan and the leadership of senior American officials in both Iraq and Afghanistan. In the final chapter, the key lessons of the two campaigns are outlined, including the importance of effective strategic decision-making, the utility of population focused counterinsurgency practices, the challenges of building partner capacity during combat, and the mindset required to prosecute modern war.

IRAN THREATENS ISRAEL & NETANYAHU'S PROBE GOES DEEPER

2/15/2018

WHAT HAPPENED TO LIBYA?

2/15/2018

Aaron Y Zelin and Michael T Franken write: Over the past several years, Libya's influx of foreign fighters has become the fourth-largest mobilization in jihadist history, behind only the Syria war, the Afghan jihad of the 1980s, and the 2003 Iraq war. - Washington Institute

Libya’s Revolution Seven Years On: As Good As It Gets?

Today marks the seventh anniversary of the Benghazi rallies that spread across the nation, when Libyans took to the streets to protest the arrest of a human rights lawyer. Fueled by the success of demonstrators in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt, the crowds also demanded the release of political prisoners and an end to Moammar Gadhafi’s 42-year rule.

Norm Roule, former senior CIA official covering the Middle East, offers takeaways on what went right, and what went wrong with international intervention.

“The good news is that Western political engagement in Libya helped prevent it from becoming another charnel house. Its battered economy and political system have somehow survived, and in January, the country produced more than a million barrels of oil per day, its highest production since July 2013.”
“But it remains wise to use this anniversary to consider the lessons of the Libyan and other regional interventions. Aside from the economic oases in the Gulf Cooperation Council, the problems of the Middle East are ominously similar to those seen in the days before the Arab Spring.”
“It is now generally accepted that any intervention or non-intervention in the catastrophes of the Middle East seem to inevitably lead to the same point: a failed state; a humanitarian disaster; a quagmire or foothold for our adversaries; and fodder for domestic political infighting.”

Read Roule’s column.

Libya Faces Crossroads Seven Years after Revolution
by Emily Estelle
Libyans commemorated the seventh anniversary of the revolution that toppled longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi on February 17. Libya appears increasingly stable on the surface, with oil production rising and embassies returning to Tripoli. Negative trends will likely shatter this apparent progress in the coming year. The current stalemate in Libya will escalate to renewed conflict in 2018, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis, worsening regional instability, and empowering U.S. enemies and adversaries.

Libya is in a period of superficial calm that obscures condition-setting for a renewed struggle over power and resources. The 2014 civil war between eastern and western coalitions has evolved, not ended. Coalitions are fragmenting and realigning. The strengthening of independent militias is increasing tensions and worsening social divisions in key localities that will determine Libya’s broader stability. Militants are reactivating an insurgency in Benghazi, the largest city in eastern Libya, as would-be strongman Khalifa Haftar struggles to control a fractiouscoalition that is alienating parts of the population. Tribal conflict resumed in Sebha, the regional capital of the southwest, as coastal powers extend their influence inland.

Moderate and hardline forces are jockeying for control in Misrata, a military and economic center in the northwest. Tripoli, Libya’s capital, is subject to a competing web of militias and criminal organizations that wield influence over the anemic UN-backed government in the west. Citizens are protesting poor living conditions in multiple cities, and the number of Libyan migrants attempting to reach Europe is growing.

The UN is pursuing elections as a panacea for the Libyan political crisis even as UN experts acknowledge that a peaceful solution is unlikely. Election preparations have already led to violence and repression. Libya lacks a constitutional framework for elections, a minimum requirement to prevent the post-election power struggles the country has seen before. Recent progress towards a constitutional referendum does not neutralize the multiple spoilers that are capable of preventing elections or delegitimizing their results. The Salafi militias overtaking the security sector are another block to free-and-fair elections, as well as a source of sectarian and ethnic conflict.

Libya will dissolve into a renewed war—or several wars—in the absence of a significant course-correction, causing Salafi-jihadi expansion, increased migration, humanitarian crises, and regional destabilization. Elections, if they occur, will not resolve Libya’s political crisis and may lead to more violence. A victory by a polarizing figure, like LNA commander Haftar, could spark armed backlash akin to the 2014 parliamentary elections. The election of a weak consensus candidate, or the splitting of votes between regions, will preserve or deepen Libya’s current regional, political, and ideological faultlines. Armed groups may also move to secure their interests—and salvage fragmenting coalitions—by taking action before elections occur, making conflict over Libya’s major cities and oil resources increasingly likely in 2018.

Salafi-jihadi groups in Libya, among them ISIS and al Qaeda, will regain momentum in 2018. ISIS is recovering from the loss of its coastal stronghold in late 2016 and has established a safe haven in central Libya. ISIS will conduct attack campaigns intended to derail Libya’s oil production and destabilize urban centers in 2018. It will also shift even more external attack planning to Libya as it loses freedom of movement in Iraq and Syria. Al Qaeda and affiliated groups in Libya, including Ansar al Sharia, are currently keeping a low profile following losses in 2016-2017. These groups will seize on the opportunity of local and national conflicts to regain influence by infiltrating and leading insurgencies in central and eastern Libya in 2018. The LNA’s campaign to seize Derna city in the northeast will also be a rallying cry for the al Qaeda network.

The involvement of regional and extra-regional powers will prolong the Libya conflict. The UAE, Turkey, and Qatar will engage even more episodically in Libya as they prioritize wars and power struggles in the Levant, the Arabian Peninsula, and East Africa. Egypt, for which Libya is a higher priority, will still find its engagement limited by competing priorities at home and in the Nile River Valley. These states will periodically provide military, economic, and political support to their proxies in order to defend their interests in Libya, but will not dramatically escalate their involvement to a level required to resolve the conflict in their favor. Russia, which will prioritize Syria and Eastern Europe, will nevertheless seize the opportunity to establish a military footprint in eastern Libya, using counterterrorism operations as justification to gain another strategic foothold on the Mediterranean.

The U.S. must recognize the coming dangers in Libya and develop a policy to change its course. Libya has not yet fallen off the brink. The U.S. should rally the international community behind a political solution to the Libya conflict and pressure regional states to cease military support for Libyan spoilers. Ending the Libya crisis will also require an overhaul of the Libyan security sector that includes both training and disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration programs. A smart intervention now could avert another tragedy for the Libyan people and put the U.S. in a position of strength against both terrorist groups and geopolitical foes in North Africa.

THE PAKISTANI HIT LIST GROWS

2/15/2018

Saudi Arabia stymies U.S. over Pakistan terror list

Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Wednesday barred former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from leading his political party, the latest setback for the embattled politician since his ouster from office last year. - New York Times

Saudi Arabia joined Turkey and China in a move to block a U.S.-led attempt this week to place Pakistan on an international terror-financing watch list, according to officials involved in the process, in a rare disagreement between Riyadh and the Trump administration. - Wall Street Journal

An Afghan official says Taliban fighters have attacked a police security post in central Ghazni province, killing eight local police. - Associated Press

Pakistan has been given a three-month reprieve by a global watchdog over a U.S.-led motion to put the South Asian country on a terrorist financing watchlist, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif said late on Tuesday. - Reuters

U.S., PAKISTAN:
U.S. Demands Pakistan Arrest 'Hit List' of Top Haqqani & Taliban Leaders
By Kimberly Dozier, The Cipher Brief: “The Trump administration has given Pakistan a new “hit list” of nearly a dozen top militants to detain, to show its willingness to fight terrorism, but the U.S. won’t share intelligence that would help lead to their capture, and has snubbed Pakistani requests to meet CIA chief Mike Pompeo in Washington, a senior Pakistani official tells The Cipher Brief.”

The Trump administration has given Pakistan a new “hit list” of nearly a dozen top militants to detain, to show its willingness to fight terrorism, but the U.S. won’t share intelligence that would help lead to their capture – and has snubbed Pakistani requests to meet CIA chief Mike Pompeo in Washington, a senior Pakistani official tells The Cipher Brief.

In response, senior U.S. administration officials would only say that Washington has asked Pakistan to take “specific” action against the Taliban and the Haqqani network, which have been blamed for recent violent attacks in Kabul, Afghanistan. The officials tell The Cipher Brief that Pakistan’s intelligence service and military have failed to sever ties with either militant group and continue to protect their top leaders within Pakistani territory.
Pakistani officials said they don’t believe the high-level targets on the new U.S. list are in Pakistan, and they griped that the U.S. won’t share coordinates of where the militant leaders are, even though Pakistan has “offered to fly U.S. operatives anywhere in Pakistan and bomb whatever they tell us to bomb.”
The he-said, she-said highlights the continued tension between the Trump administration and Islamabad that spiked in January when President Donald Trump greeted the new year by tweeting that Pakistan has shown “nothing but lies and deceit” in return for U.S. aid.

For TCB Executive Editor Kimberly Dozier’s exclusive story, click here.

For more background on the breakdown in U.S.-Pakistan relations, read today’s brief.

Pakistan slipping out of US influence, say intelligence agencies
(Dawn News) Seventeen US intelligence agencies have warned Congress that Pakistan will continue to slip out of America’s influence and into China’s orbit in 2019, and will become a threat to Washington’s interests in the South Asian region.

Pakistani terror groups launch multiple attacks in Jammu and Kashmir
(Long War Journal) Pakistani terror groups Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) launched two attacks against security forces this week in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. Both attacks targeted Indian military facilities and together resulted in the deaths of six Indian security personnel and one civilian.

INDIA & IRAN CEMENT TIES OVER CHABAHAR PORT, FREE TRADE ZONE

2/15/2018

Rouhani embarks on India state visit
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has departed on his first state visit to India. He is slated to meet with senior officials including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as India hopes to strike a deal to use Iran's Chabahar free trade zone on the Gulf of Oman to trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing archrival Pakistan. Rouhani will visit New Delhi and the southern city of Hyderabad. Read More

WHY THERE'S NO PEACE IN MIDDLE EAST

2/14/2018

FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES

PUSHING BACK ON IRAN: THE WHY

2/13/2018

PUSHBACK ON IRAN: THE SERIES

Pushing back on Iran, part 1: The why
Kenneth Pollack | AEIdeas
Kenneth Pollack writes about why the US needs a more confrontational approach toward Iran. One of the most profound threats is that Iran is actively struggling to push the transformation of the Middle East in directions that best suit Iranian interests, not the interests of the US or the people of the Middle East. This is the first in a series of essays that flesh out the idea of pushing back on Iran.

Pushing back on Iran, part 3: The Syrian civil war
Kenneth Pollack | AEIdeas
Syria is the ideal place for the US to take on Iran. However, Americans have debated the wisdom of playing a more active role there. As the Israeli air strikes last weekend remind us, the situation in Syria remains uncertain and complex, meaning that any American policy toward Syria is likely to run certain risks and incur certain costs that should be addressed.

can u.s. end pakistan's double game & the tragedy of india's partition

2/11/2018

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Campaign against Pashtuns undermines rule of law
RAHIM NASAR
For the last six decades, Pakistan's Pashtuns have been oppressed by the establishment. Marking opponents with the black stamp of treason has been the establishment's most effective tool for silencing the ethnic group's leaders when they dare to criticize state policy-makers. The promotion of Pashtun cultural stereotypes – the portrayal of the Pashtuns as a violent and extremist ethnic group – has led to them being internally exiled as the war against militancy is waged...

There are good reasons for the army’s popularity in Pakistan
ATTA RASOOL MALIK
The ideological origins of the Pakistan Army can be traced back to what is known in British histories as the 'The Indian Mutiny.’ Its objective was to reinstate to power in Delhi the Mughal emperor Bahadur Shah. This was India’s First War of Independence and was mainly fought by Muslims, although many Hindu troops also took part as a result of crude treatment by their British officers. When partition came around in 1947, the formations, units...

In Afghanistan, Hard Is Not Hopeless—but Time Is Running Out
By Rep. Mike Gallagher, RealClearDefense: “Now is the time to be honest about what we are trying to achieve in Afghanistan, what it will cost, how we measure progress on the ground, and how this will be different from the last 17 years. ”

"Pakistani Taliban confirms US killed deputy emir in North Waziristan drone strike," Bill Roggio, FDD's Long War Journal

Pakistani Taliban confirms US killed deputy emir in North Waziristan drone strike
Sajna Mehsud was killed in a US drone strike in North Waziristan, not in Afghanistan like some Pakistani officials have claimed. Sajna lead the group's powerful Mehsud faction, was close to al Qaeda, and was responsible for murdering thousands of Pakistanis.

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Pakistani General talks tough on terrorism, but remains short on action
General Bajwa and Pakistani officials can pontificate all they like about how their country has eliminated terrorism and no longer permit terrorists to use its soil to attack another country. A look at the facts tells another story, and that is one of Pakistani duplicity.

The Major Flaws in Afghanistan's Intelligence War
By Javid Ahmad, The National Interest: “For Afghanistan, the recent spate of violence signifies important intelligence failures.”

SYRIA FRACTURING: RUSSIA, US, IRAN & TURKEY ALL IN

2/11/2018

The Obama-Trump foreign policy
Thomas Donnelly and William Kristol | The Weekly Standard

Pentagon plays down Russian influence in Syria after clash with US-backed forces
Secretary of Defense James Mattis insisted that Moscow had little control over Syrian troops that attacked US allies. Mattis also dismissed fears that the United States is getting dragged into another Middle East war.

US maintains mystery about long-term intentions in Syria
Remember that "border force" the US said it was, and then wasn't, forming in Syria? Apparently, it's already there

US support for Kurds in Iraq and Syria unaffected by tensions with Turkey
The Pentagon is standing by Kurdish fighters in Iraq and Syria despite growing political pressure to back off, according to a government audit.

Syria chemical attack rockets ‘Made in Germany,’ report says
(Fox News) The rockets used in the recent chemical attacks in Syria that poisoned dozens of civilians, including children, were “Made in Germany,” Bild reports.

TILLERSON HITS MIDDLE EAST TOUR: ADDRESS RAGING WARS & CAN AMERICA KILL ENOUGH TO WIN

2/11/2018

'Can’t Kill Enough to Win? Think Again': The Author’s Respond
By David G. Bolgiano & John Taylor, U.S. Naval Institute Blog: “One critic stated: “Killing our way to victory is a simplistic notion that appears to totally ignore the real-world complexities and challenges of the current war on terror.” On the contrary, U.S. military personnel have created their own complexities by trying to be diplomats instead of warriors.”

Tillerson embarks on Middle East tour to put out foreign policy fires

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson heads out on a marathon tour of a half-dozen Middle East countries next week as US foreign policy faces crises across the region. The top US diplomat’s first stop will be Sunday in Jordan, where he’ll try to salvage crumbling Israel-Palestinian peace talks with King Abdullah and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi(see story below). Tillerson is also expected to sign a bilateral memorandum of understanding on economic and security assistance with the cash-strapped US counterterrorism ally.

Then it’s off to Turkey, where Tillerson is expected to raise “some of the more difficult issues” with Turkish leaders, a senior State Department official said in a background call today – a possible reference to Ankara’s military incursion into northern Syria to battle US-backed Kurdish forces.

After that, Tillerson flies to Lebanon for the first visit by a US secretary of state in four years. He’s scheduled to meet with President Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Saad Haririand parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri. With tensions rising between Lebanon and Israel as the Shiite militia Hezbollah stockpiles rockets, the visit aims to “underscore our commitment to Lebanese national institutions, principally the Lebanese Armed Forces and internal security forces” as a bulwark against instability and Sunni extremism, according to officials on the call.

Next, Tillerson heads to Egypt for a meeting with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Hot topics include the conflicts in Libya and Syria, terrorism, and Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, with some discussion expected on the March elections and the silencing of Sisi’s main challengers.

Finally, Tillerson wraps things up with a visit to Kuwait, which is hosting both a ministerial meeting of the anti-Islamic State coalition and a reconstruction conference to help rebuild Iraq after the terrorist group’s defeat

ISRAEL ALL IN, WAR IN THE NORTH

2/10/2018

Iran’s stealth drone was shot down in a new way
BY STEPHEN BRYEN
It appears the drone was destroyed by a missile controlled with an electro-optical sensor

FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES

Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel's Targeted Assassinations. by Ronen Bergman.

EGYPT HITS ISLAMIC STATE IN SINAI & U.S. CENTCOM COMMAND IN QATAR WALKS TIGHTROPE

2/10/2018

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/president-trump-condemn-this-sham-egyptian-election•
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middleeast/egypt-opens-border-with-gaza-temporarily-first-time-in-2018/2018/02/07/75f5f014-0c12-11e8-998c-96deb18cca19story.html?utm_term=.e2cf1c432c26

Egypt Targets Sinai Militants in Air and Ground Raids

As the ongoing dispute between Qatar and Arab countries enters its eighth month, the U.S. has been forced to strike a delicate balance in its dealings with critical allies in the Middle East.

The volatility triggered by this divide has paved the way for Iran to expand its subversive regional activity without encountering resistance posed by a unified Gulf Cooperation Council.
The U.S. appears to have taken a neutral position, but increasingly risks jeopardizing ties to both sides as Iran continues to build momentum in its quest to form a Shia crescent spanning the Middle East. Furthermore, the dispute has required Washington to prioritize cooperating with and appeasing allies on both sides instead of focusing on resolving other pressing conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya and throughout the region.

Read the full brief, with expert commentary by:

HOW ISRAEL WINS: DANIEL PIPES
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prism_9-1.pdf
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FRAGILITY & FAILURE
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CIVILIAN LED APPROACH: THE LONG WAR
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US: THE LONG WAR GAME
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America's Anti-Colonial Wars Abroad
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RETHINKING EGYPT'S ECONOMY
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EGYPT: CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS, ECONOMY
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national-identity_web-1.pdf
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AFRICA'S POST COLONIAL ERA ENDING
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AFRICAN ARAB SPRING

AFRICAN ARAB SPRING
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ISHMAEL IS NOT FATHER OF ARABS

ISHMAEL NOT FATHER OF ARAB CIVILIZATION
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DEFEATING SECTARIANISM IN MIDDLE EAST

rand_rb10052.pdf
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SECULARISM, NATIONALISM, ISLAMISM: MAKING MODERN MIDDLE EAST
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terrorism-tactics-and-transformation.pdf
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CHANGING DYNAMICS OF SALAFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS

FOREIGN AFFAIRS - THE ARAB SPRING @ 5
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BIN SALMAN & THE REFORM OF SAUDI ARABIA
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NATIONAL INTEREST, ARAB SPRING
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FOLLOWING VISION 2030

HOOVER; ISLAMISM

MEF RADIO LIVE

SECTARIANISM MIDDLE EAST.pdf
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THE PAKISTAN READER

ARAB SPRING & POLITICAL REFORM
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ISRAELI NEWS NETWORK

THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM

250 YEARS OF AMERICAN IRREGULAR WAR

AEI - CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT: SALIFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS GROWING

ABBAS MILANI HOOVER PAGE: IRAN & U.S. RELATIONS

HOOVER INSTITUTION BLOG ON THE NEAR EAST

JEWISH INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY OF AMERICA

FATA PAKISTAN RESEARCH CENTER

ISRAELI NUCLEAR POSTURE & DOCTRINES

CONTAIN, DEGRADE, DEFEAT: PLAN FOR MIDDLE EAST

THE PLAN TO DEFEAT THE ISLAMIC STATE & al-QAEDA

CENTER FOR SECURITY, REGIONAL STUDIES, KABUL

AfPak POLICY OPTIONS

ISLAMISM & INTERNATIONAL ORDER

HOOVER INSTITUTION PUBLICATION ON U.S. NEAR EAST POLICY

Israeli Security & Gulf States

PRINCIPALS GUIDING US POLICY IN MIDDLE EAST

HOW ISRAEL WINS

FREE BOOKS ON MIDDLE EAST

AEI: GLOBAL JIHADI THREAT & BEYOND

HOOVER: OPERATIONAL GUIDE FOR THE LONG WAR

THE ETTINGER REPORT: U.S. ISRAELI RELATIONS

GOOGLE NEWS PAKISTAN

HOW TO WIN WORLD WAR IV

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE LONG WAR

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