CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR - CounterStrikeMedia

WAR ON THE ROCKS TACKLES THE ISLAMIC STATE & BEGIN SADAT CENTER IN ISRAEL REVEALS WHY TALKING TO TALIBAN IS USELESS & WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE SAUDI LED ISRAELI COALITION

2/27/2019

The Saudi-Israeli Coalition?
By Arie Egozi, Tuesday, February 26, 2019 9:52 PM
An Israeli source who spoke with Breaking Defense of condition of anonymity said that attitudes in Saudi Arabia are changing, “not only in domestic issues, but also their understanding that Israel is not an enemy…”

Haroro J. Ingram and Craig Whiteside write: The Islamic State movement has demonstrated an equanimity — even a desire — to be misunderstood and underestimated by its foes. It is hard to believe that a group with as high a profile as the Islamic State can be underestimated. Yet that is its history. – War on the Rocks

US-Taliban Dialogue Is an Exercise in Naiveté
By Jagdish N. Singh, February 24, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The ongoing US-Taliban dialogue is devoid of logic. The mission of the US troops in Afghanistan is still far from complete. Washington must take the Taliban’s jihadist ideology and past record into account. They are not to be trusted.
Continue to full article ->

HAMAS MUST BE DEFEATED FOR ISRAELI SECURITY & ZARIF'S RESIGNATION

2/27/2019

Only the Full Defeat of Hamas Can Ensure Israel's Security by Oded Forer
The Jerusalem Post
February 24, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/57880/full-defeat-hamas-israel-security

Eli Lake writes: Zarif’s resignation means very little for Iran’s relationship with the West. Indeed, it may provide Europe with a clarifying moment. This is because Zarif’s main job was to persuade his interlocutors that Iran was a normal nation-state and not a predatory rogue. […] In this sense, Zarif’s resignation is welcome news. He was never going to moderate the Iranian regime. His job was to con Westerners into thinking Iran’s regime was moderating. With his departure, the civilized world has one less excuse for failing to see what has been in front of its nose all along. – Bloomberg

N Mozes writes: Having established its status and presence in Syria, it appears that Iran, which has a great deal of influence in Lebanon’s political system and daily life via Hizbullah, now seeks to further strengthen its direct control of the country by infiltrating its institutions and its vital areas, first and foremost the military and also energy and health. This is aimed at, among other things, opening up the Lebanese market for Iranian goods, which have a very limited market because of the U.S. sanctions on Iran. – Middle East Media Research Institute

AEI'S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT: THE RESIGNATION

Zarif’s resignation likely a strategic move to deflect Iran deal criticism

THE CITADEL & THE SMACKDOWN: india hits pakistan; A NEW INDO PACIFIC APPROACH TO AFGHANISTAN

2/26/2019

INDIA, PAKISTAN DEMONSTRATE NEW WAR THRESHOLDS

ASIA TIMES

PAKISTAN'S DEEP STATE MISCALCULATES

How to End the Worst India-Pakistan Crisis in a Generation
// Ankit Panda
Stepping back from the brink now will require political courage in New Delhi and reciprocity in Islamabad.

Indo–U.S. Joint Approach Toward Afghanistan
By Arvind Thakur & Michael Padgett, RealClearDefense: “Many external players and political contradictions within Afghanistan prevent a more stable climate. Many countries like India and the U.S. have political, security and economic interests in Afghanistan. These interests are threatened by the instability in Afghanistan and burgeoning alliances taking shape in the region."

India and Pakistan are playing a dangerous game of chicken
Sadanand Dhume | AEIdeas
Are India and Pakistan lurching toward a war? An escalating confrontation between the South Asian neighbors means that we can no longer rule out the possibility.

Shamila N. Chaudhary writes: As long as India enjoys a more strategic relationship with the United States and it maintains stronger conventional military capabilities, Pakistan will not shift its policy of using militants as proxies against India. With Bolton’s statement that the United States supports “India’s right to self-defense,” Pakistan’s use of proxies is likely to become more entrenched, further intertwining the United States in South Asia’s complex security politics rather than extracting it from them. – The Hill

INDIA, PAKISTAN:
India Strikes Jaish-e-Mohammad Camp Inside Pakistan
By Bill Roggio, FDD's Long War Journal: “The Indian Air Force launched a raid against a JeM camp in Balakot inside Pakistan, killing scores of jihadists. The Pakistani government is denying the raid took place."

Tom Rogan writes: Pakistan’s downing of at least one Indian air force jet on Wednesday should not be viewed as a random crisis incident. Instead, it reflects a new period of escalating tension between the two nuclear powers. The root of this tension is clear: Pakistan’s support for terrorist groups targeting India, and India’s increasing unwillingness to accept these attacks without military reprisal. – Washington Examiner

Simon Henderson writes: Welcome to South Asia, where the rival militaries have gamed for years a nuclear war that isn’t quite Armageddon — the war to end wars — but an exercise in bravado, national pride and humiliating the other side. […]The conventional wisdom is, or certainly was, that nuclear weapons create a balance of terror between rivals. That logic may have applied in the days of the Cold War between the United States and Soviet Union, but it no longer is valid — at least between India and Pakistan. – The Hill

Sadanand Dhume writes: For now the path out of the current crisis appears straightforward: Pakistan should return the captured Indian pilot and take concrete steps to rein in jihadist groups like JeM and Lashkar-e-Taiba that target India. For its part, India needs to ensure that its official rhetoric remains measured, and that its next steps are not driven primarily by domestic political considerations. With domestic passions running high, the margin of error for both India and Pakistan is extremely limited. – American Enterprise Institute

If India and Pakistan Go to War, Israeli Weapons Could Be Decisive by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
March 4, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/57905/if-india-pakistan-go-to-war-israeli-weapons-could-be-decisive

PAKISTANI TRAINING CAMPS STILL STANDING

CHINA'S BELT & ROAD UNRAVELS IN CENTRAL ASIA AND PAKISTAN; THE CONSEQUENCES OF LEAVING AFGHANISTAN & RUSSIAN OBSTACLES OVERCOME IN NORTH AFRICA

2/21/2019

AEI’s Michael Rubin: Has Pakistan supplanted Iran as the leading terror sponsor?

Mohammed Issam Laaroussi writes: Russia has encountered obstacles that have impeded its ambitions and strategies in North Africa and may face more depending on whether regional dynamics shift. Western powers continue to treat Russia as a regional actor rather than a major world power, despite Russia’s efforts to influence foreign policy-making on a global scale. And since its current policy in North Africa relies on exploiting uncertainty in existing alliances among North African countries and Western powers in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, focused U.S. reengagement with North Africa could significantly hamper Russia’s efforts. – Washington Institute

Tom Rogan writes: If we mean to confront terrorists, we should stop investing in them! The key here, then, is for the U.S. to pressure Pakistan’s primary benefactors to suspend their aid support in lieu of serious Pakistani counterterrorism action. This should start with the International Monetary Fund, which is currently in advance stage negotiations with Pakistan over a new bailout. […]President Trump deserves credit for leading on this issue before now. He must now take the next step and tighten the screws. Pakistan can no longer expect access to foreign aid while simultaneously attacking an important American partner. – Washington Examiner

In Central Asia’s forbidding highlands, a quiet newcomer: Chinese troops

IRANIAN MISSILES-NUKES UP AND RUNNING; IRANIAN PROXIES RULE SYRIA & PAKISTAN ANSWERS NEW DEHLI'S CALL ON KASHMIR TERROR

2/21/2019

Alberto M. Fernandez writes: By most standards, the Iranian regime inside Iran is in trouble, although the mullahs have faced similar challenges in the past 40 years. But while domestically Iran is struggling, regionally it is pursuing an ambitious generational agenda, which seeks to reshape much of the region in its own image. […]Neither the U.S. nor any Western state can match Iran’s imperial ground game in the Fertile Crescent states. Only the U.S. has the ability to do so, but such an expansive and intrusive footprint is now beyond American aspirations. – Middle East Media Research Institute

WINEP's Dennis Ross: What Washington—and Iran—should take away from the Warsaw conference

Yossi Yehoshua writes: Hezbollah is trying to entrench itself in Syria, after Syrian President Bashar Assad has reclaimed the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, precisely as it did between 2014-2015. This was when one of the terror organization’s more prominent members, Jihad Mughniyeh, was appointed by Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force to be in charge of the Golan Heights area and planning terror attacks against Israeli civilians. – Ynet

Adam Taylor writes: The Trump administration wants to pull out of Syria, contain the Houthi rebels in Yemen and broker peace with Israel and the Palestinians, all while working to squeeze Iran, a powerful force in all three situations. Its criticism of Tehran over its poor human rights record and its foreign interventions stands in contrast to its refusal to push back on its own Gulf allies for similar accusations. – Washington Post

As Iran’s missile program expands, so do challenges of confrontation

Be Careful What You Revolt For
Reuel Marc Gerecht, Ray Takeyh — National Review
The 40th anniversary of the Iranian revolution has sparked the usual lamentations from many Iranians. They revolted for democracy only to have the Machiavellian mullahs hijack their revolution and squash its liberal aspirations. Such soothing revisionism is the wont of Persians, especially those who now live in the West and routinely contort history to fit their preferred narrative.

As Iran's missile program expands, so do challenges of confrontation
Behnam Ben Taleblu — Axios
At the Munich Security Conference last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stressed the Islamic Republic’s right to “sophisticated means of defense,” alluding to the ballistic missiles whose flight tests and transfers the Trump administration has sought to curb... Read more

Jihadist suicide bomber kills dozens of Indian troops in largest attack in Kashmir in decades
Bill Roggio, Phil Hegseth — FDD's Long War Journal
When Airbnb, the online lodging service, announced in November that it would ban Israeli listings in the disputed West Bank, hardcore anti-Israel groups took an undeserved victory lap. Surprisingly, though, the credit belongs to Human Rights Watch, an nongovernmental organization with seemingly no reason to enter into the circus of anti-Israel activism. ... Read mor

'Our soil is not used for carrying out terrorist attacks,' Pakistan PM claims
Bill Roggio — FDD's Long War Journal
While deflecting blame for last week’s suicide attack in the Indian state of Kashmir that killed dozens of Indian soliders, Pakistan’s prime minister denied that his country is harboring terrorist groups. His denial is strikingly similar to the Taliban’s claim that it does not permit Afghan territory to be used as a launching pad to strike at other countries. ... Read more

IRAN’S REVOLUTION RECONSIDERED By EPPC Fellow Luma Simms
Law and Liberty
Iran and the rest of the Middle Eastern world do not need any more revolutions or Western foreign policy interventions. They need a revolution of conscience: the moral power of human dignity. Read More

Mass executions and torture; the brutal persecution of women, minorities, and the opposition; the installation of an Islamist terror state that threatens to annihilate Israel, that covers the Middle East with its militias, and that denies the Holocaust. All of this started in Iran on 11 February, 1979, the day of the “Islamic Revolution”, when the mullahs seized power in Tehran. On the 40th anniversary of this day, friendly greetings from Berlin arrived in Tehran by telegram: the President of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier (63), sends “Congratulations” on the occasion of the national holiday, “also in the name of my compatriots”. – Bild

The entire secret Iranian nuclear archives taken by the Mossad from Tehran should be posted online, former foreign ministry director-general Dore Gold said on Monday. Gold was speaking at a panel on Iran at the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations in Jerusalem. – Jerusalem Post

ISRAEL VS. HAMAS AND THE CONCEPT OF PROPORTIONALITY, LATEST ON ISRAELI ELECTIONS TO UNSEAT NETANYAHU & AMERICA'S TWO COMPETING VISIONS OF ISRAEL

2/21/2019

Can Israel Defeat Hamas Without Toppling It?
By Yaakov Lappin, February 21, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: So far, Israel’s objectives in armed conflicts with Hamas have been limited so as to avoid the need to reoccupy Gaza or to send it down the "Somalia model" path of chaos. But there might be a third option.
Continue to full article ->

Israel's center-left parties join forces to unseat Netanyahu
Two of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s most formidable political rivals said today they planned to merge their parties to take on the veteran leader in April’s elections. The chairmen of two top center-left parties, Israel Resilience leader Benny Gantz, a one-time chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, and Yair Lapid, the chairman of Yesh Atid, plan to run on a joint "Blue and White" ticket. If their coalition wins, Gantz a 2½-year run as prime minister before handing over the reins to Lapid. Gabi Ashkenazi, who preceded Gantz in Israel’s top military role, and former Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon also plan to join the new bloc. "The choice is clear: It's either a left-wing government headed by Lapid and Gantz and supported by a bloc of Arab parties, or a right-wing government headed by Netanyahu,” the prime minister’s Likud Party said in a statement blasting the alliance. Read More 

Americans' Two Conceptions of Israel
By Dr. Alex Joffe and Dr. Asaf Romirowsky, February 19, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: While the Trump presidency has forced clarity in the US on many domestic and foreign policy issues, the status of Israel in American politics and culture reveals different visions of America itself. One, for lack of a better term, is traditionally American. The other is decidedly “progressive.” But according to both, Israel is mythical and outsized.
Continue to full article ->

Grace Wermenbol writes: Israel’s desire to normalize relations with Africa is inspired by the same motives behind Netanyahu’s outreach to South America and the Gulf Arab states. Netanyahu regularly vows to expand Israel’s diplomatic ties. […]Following the resumption of Israel-Chad relations, a meeting by the Arab League – which includes nine members on the African continent – was held to curtail Israeli “expansion” in Africa. This meeting, held “within the framework of the league’s continued support for the Palestinian cause,” suggests that the so-called “normalization” of ties with Israel is still subject to intense scrutiny. – Middle East Institute

Netanyahu goes it alone
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has completely excluded Likud ministers from the party’s election campaign, choosing to stand alone even as he stands to be indicted for corruption.

Netanyahu fights for his political life
Following the attorney general's announcement that he will be indicted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stepped up his desperate war against the legal system and the media.

Netanyahu indictment scrambles Israeli elections
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu slammed Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit over his decision to indict him on Thursday, calling it an attempt to influence Israel’s April elections. At a press conference, Netanyahu called the charges "an unprecedented witch hunt intended to topple the right-wing government." Netanyahu’s main political rival, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, called upon Netanyahu to resign, stating, “I expect you to wage your legal battles as a private man.”
The Justice Ministry released the charges after Israel’s High Court rejected a petition by Netanyahu’s Likud party on Thursday to prevent the Attorney General from revealing them before the elections. Netanyahu faces charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. However, a formal indictment is contingent on a hearing, which could take place after the elections. Read More 

HUSAIN HAQQANI ON THE LATEST PAK TERROR HIT IN KASHMIR & HOW IS RIYADH GETTING US MADE NUCLEAR REACTORS?

2/20/2019

NDTV: PAKISTAN CALLS TERROR PROXIES SEMINARIES

THE PRINT

Drivers, Decisions, Dilemmas: Understanding the Kashmir Crisis and its Implications by Sameer Lalwani and Emily Tallo

How White House efforts to sidestep Congress on Saudi nuclear deal are blowing up
The House Oversight Committee spoke with Donald Trump administration whistleblowers and released a report Tuesday detailing the White House’s efforts to give Congress the run-around in its determination to reach a civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia.

Iran and India Slam Pakistan for 'Sheltering Terrorists' by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
February 16, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/57828/iran-india-slam-pakistan-sheltering-terrorists

JIHADI WAR CRIMES AGAINST WOMEN, CHILDREN & AEI'S KATHERINE ZIMMERMAN EXAMINES A FAILED COUNTER-TERROR GLOBAL POLICY IN YEMEN & TUNISIA'S POST ARAB SPRING; EXAMINE WHY GREAT NATIONS FIGHT LONG WARS

2/17/2019

Hamas, Islamic Jihad War Crimes Against Children and Women by Bassam Tawil •

Sunni Jihad Is Going Local
// Hassan Hassan
Future extremists will focus not on exporting violence to the West, but on building influence in their own communities.

Trump doubles down on failed counterterror policy
Reuters
Katherine Zimmerman writes that, rather than focusing on terrorists and terrain, the US and its partners should focus on breaking the bonds between the Salafi-jihadi groups and local communities.

Gerald M. Feierstein writes: The root causes of the ongoing civil conflict in Yemen lie in the failure of Yemeni society to address and resolve the popular anger and frustration arising from political marginalization, economic disenfranchisement, and the effects of an extractive, corrupt, rentier state. This systemic failure has produced a cycle of violence, political upheaval, and institutional collapse since the creation of the modern Yemeni state in the 1960s, of which the current conflict is only the latest eruption. – Middle East Institute

Rikke Hostrup Haugbølle and Ahlam Chemlali write: There is a need for a holistic approach which links and documents the complexity of everyday violence and security and the deeper causes of migration and radicalization, not only in Tunisia but in the wider Maghreb. Everyday experiences of violence are a burden to many ordinary citizens in Tunisia and the Maghreb region and constitute a root cause of pending social and political challenges for — at least in the case of Tunisia — further progress in the transitional process and in the development of a participatory democracy. – Middle East Institute

Katherine Zimmerman writes: Eliminating the territorial Caliphate matters in this regard. But the Salafi-jihadist movement pursues a phased and adaptive strategy. Since the 2011 Arab Spring, it has focused on insinuating itself into the fabric of Sunni populations rather than ruling directly. For instance, al Qaeda governed parts of Yemen through local proxies after the 2015 civil war broke out, taking lessons Salafists learned from Syria and Mali. – American Enterprise Institute

Do Great Nations Fight Endless Wars? Against the Islamic State, They Might by Haroro J. Ingram and Craig Whiteside

REUEL MARC GERECHT & KORI SCHAKE: MIDDLE EAST AND DEMOCRACY; IMF LOAN TO PAKISTAN IS NO SOLUTION, MODI'S VOTE BUYING SCHEME & HOW EUROPE SEEKS TO BYPASS US IRANIAN SANCTIONS

2/17/2019

How a Forever War Ends
// Kori Schake
Trump might well wrap up the war in Afghanistan, but only by giving up on America's original goals.

The Middle East still needs democracy
Reuel Marc Gerecht — The Washington Post
Many Americans remain wary, if not hostile, to the idea of democracy promotion in the Middle East. The Iraq War, which wasn’t launched to bring people power to Mesopotamia, is seen by most critics as the great catastrophe of Americans who wanted to export representative government. ... Read more

ASIA TIMES: PAKISTAN'S IMF LOANS & THE REFORM OF ITS POLITICAL ECONOMY
MONITORING PAKISTAN'S IMF BREAKTHRU

PAKISTANI BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISIS HITS FOR LATE WINTER

MODI'S VOTE BUYING BUDGET

Europe Takes Steps to Bypass U.S. Sanctions on Iran

PAKISTANI PROXIES STRIKE AT HEART OF INDIAN KASHMIR & DEBUNKING AFGHAN WAR MYTHS

2/15/2019

Jihadist suicide bomber kills dozens of Indian troops in largest attack in Kashmir in decades
The attack is the deadliest in decades for a region fraught with constant, often violent, struggles. Jaish-e-Mohammad is part of a syndicate of terror groups allied with al Qaeda and supported by the Pakistani state.

Jaish al-Adl claims deadly IRGC bus bombing
Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni militant group based along Iran's southeastern border with Pakistan, has claimed responsibility for a bombing that targeted an IRGC bus. The group has repeatedly targeted Iranian security forces.

Debunking the Myths of the War in Afghanistan by David Barno and Nora Bensahel

NO ARAB SPRING FOR ALGERIA: 5TH PRESIDENTIAL TERM SOUGHT, EGYPT LEADS THE AFRICAN UNION WITH RENEWED TERM FOR AL-SISI & THE FATE OF TUNISIA'S RETURNING RADICALS

2/11/2019

Algeria’s ailing president to seek fifth term
Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced on Sunday that he will run for a fifth term in the April elections, state media reported. The ailing 81-year-old president last addressed his nation more than six years ago. The announcement comes after the country’s ruling party, the National Liberation Front, endorsed Bouteflika as its official presidential candidate. Read More

Egypt to lead African Union
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi took the reins as chairman of the African Union (AU) on Sunday after a leaders' meeting in Ethiopia. The post switches between regions of the continent every year. Sisi said he hoped to use the role to lead the fight against terror. "Terrorism remains a cancer that affects African nations and steals the dreams of our people and we must identify and combat those who fund terrorism activities on the continent," Sisi said on Sunday. Sisi’s appointment — the first time Egypt has held the AU’s top slot since its formation — was met with concern from human rights groups. After Sisi led a military coup in 2013, Egypt was briefly expelled from the AU. Read More

What fate awaits Tunisia's returning jihadists?
As one of the top countries of origin for foreign IS recruits, Tunisia has struggled to address domestic threats of returning jihadis and how to de-radicalize these youths.

Islamic Relief and Qatar Implicated in Tunisian Terror Finance Investigation by Sam Westrop
Rabwah Times
February 9, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/57777/islamic-relief-qatar-tunisian-terror

Egypt parliament approves extending president’s term
Egypt's parliament overwhelmingly voted Thursday in favor of constitutional amendments that could allow President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to rule until 2034. The changes would extend the current four-year presidential term to six years and allow Sisi to serve beyond his current two-term limit. Of the 596 members of parliament, 485 voted in favor of the changes, which would also give Sisi more power to appoint judges and prosecutors. The amendments must now be reviewed by a parliamentary committee and returned to parliament for a final vote, before they are put to a national referendum. Read More

Algeria gambles on old captain to chart new waters
The announcement that Algeria’s ailing President Abdelaziz Bouteflika is running for a fifth term in the country’s elections raised questions about Algerians’ readiness to endorse the man who has played a prominent role in ending the civil war.

Candidates for Algeria’s April 18 presidential election have until the end of the day to register. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika is expected to bidfor a fifth term despite protests.

WHAT WAS FRANCE'S ROLE IN THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION, IRANIAN MISSILE DEVELOPMENT & A SCRAMBLE FOR AFRICA IN ISLAM

2/10/2019

IRAN’S REVOLUTION RECONSIDERED By EPPC Fellow Luma Simms
Law and Liberty
Iran and the rest of the Middle Eastern world do not need any more revolutions or Western foreign policy interventions. They need a revolution of conscience: the moral power of human dignity. Read More

The Iranian Revolution past and present
Matt Winesett, Max Frost, and Michael Rubin | "Banter"
Michael Rubin discusses the revolution's legacy and what it means for Iran, the Middle East, and the US. He also discusses the legacy of the Shah, the lessons other Middle East nations drew from his fall, and whether we can expect the regime to exist for a 50th, 60th, or 70th anniversary of the revolution.

AL JAZEERA

The 40th Anniversary of the Islamic Republic of Iran by Majid Rafizadeh

Iranian Revolution: 40 years later
Kenneth M. Pollack | AEI video
AEI's Kenneth M. Pollack explains the dramatic and ongoing impact that the Iranian Revolution had on the Middle East and the United States.

Revisit the series here.

"The Islamic State of Iran at 40," Clifford D. May featuring Michael Ledeen and Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD's Foreign Podicy

Shukur Khilkhal writes: Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s recent visit to Baghdad has pushed the American project to counter Iranian influence in Iraq back to square one. The visit came just after U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s tour in Baghdad and several other Middle Eastern capitals, through which he sought to form a Middle Eastern coalition to counter Iran in the region in general and in Iraq in particular. During the tour, he discussed activating American sanctions on Iran with Iraqi officials, as well as limiting commercial activity with Iran and diminishing the role of Iranian-backed factions. – Washington Institute

Iran inaugurates medium-range ballistic missile, says local media
(The Associated Press) An Iranian news outlet says the elite Revolutionary Guard has inaugurated a surface-to-surface ballistic missile it claims has a 620-mile range.

Revolution at 40: Same old structural problems still plague Iran
While the Islamic Republic can pride itself on improvement on literacy and poverty, 40 years after its Islamic Revolution, Iran is still struggling with many of the structural deficiencies that plagued the country under the shah.

Threat Update and recommended reads:

The Iranian regime may activate its proxy networks in the Levant against Israel, following an uptick in Israeli strikes against Iranian assets and personnel in southern Syria in recent weeks.
The Abu Abbas Brigade, a Salafi-jihadi militia fighting in Yemen’s Taiz governorate, may have suspended its relationship with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State.
- Get more context on the Abu Abbas Brigade from our April 2017 edition of the Yemen Situation Report.
Bangladeshi security forces disrupted efforts to reconstitute the al Qaeda-linked Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT).
- Islamist militancy is alive and well in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan.
Al Shabaab may increase attacks against foreign companies in Somalia as well as Somali politicians and institutions linked to foreign investment.
- View the "New Scramble for Africa".

The Islamic Republic nears a turning point
Nicholas Carl | AEIdeas

40 Years After the Revolution: Understanding the Islamic Republic of Iran
FDD Event — FDD
The discussion addressed the historical significance of the 1979 revolution, featuring Gholam Reza Afkhami, director at the Foundation for Iranian Studies; Houchang Chehabi, professor of international relations and history at Boston University; and Ray Takeyh, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. ... Read more

Rouhani Remarks Point to Need for Improved Homeland Missile Defense

WHAT ITS LIKE TO HAVE A JEWISH TERRORIST IN THE FAMILY & HOW NETANYAHU UNIFIED THE ISRAELI RIGHT

2/10/2019

HAARETZ

Netanyahu’s successful operation of unifying the far right
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been laboring for the unification of far-right parties. The announcement of HaBayit HaYehudi and National Union parties on running together is his first victory.

PAKISTAN'S PRIME MINISTER ADMITS NEED FOR PAINFUL REFORMS, WHAT THE AFGAN'S THINK ABOUT US PEACE INITIATIVES & RIYADH GOES TO ISLAMABAD

2/10/2019

AL JAZEERA

Understanding the Adversary: What the Taliban Think About Afghanistan Peace Negotiations by Baheer Wardak

Saudi crown prince to visit Pakistan al-monitor.com

The Afghan Government Is Missing From Afghanistan's Peace Process
// Krishnadev Calamur Two sets of negotiations with the Taliban are under way in Afghanistan. Neither includes the country's democratically elected, internationally recognized administration.

FREEDOM HOUSE RELEASES STUDY ON GLOBAL DEMOCRACY & A LOOK AT IRAN'S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS

2/8/2019

Great nations don’t quit wars before they prevail
Marc A. Thiessen | The Washington Post

“Democracies die in daylight,” Clifford D. May, The Washington Times

AFPC’s Ilan Berman: 4 key takeaways from Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats testimony about Iran

ISIS’ David Albright and Andrea Stricker: Parsing Iran’s claims about quickly reconstituting the IR-40: are the plutonium pathway restrictions undermined?

WHY CAN'T AMERICA WIN ITS WARS & EXAMINE HOW TALIBAN HOSTS FOREIGN FIGHTERS

2/6/2019

Translating Tactical Wins into Strategic Success
By Nicholas Krohley, Modern War Institute: “We have mastered the art of hunting men. Refined over nearly two decades of nonstop counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations, and enhanced by a suite of increasingly powerful technological tools, the United States military has developed an extraordinary ability to find, fix, and finish targets worldwide.”

Why Can’t America Win its Wars?
By Stephen B. Young, Small Wars Journal: "The record of American disappointments is indeed impressive for money spent and results obtained: Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, the War on Terror."

Taliban continues to host foreign terrorist groups, despite assurances to the contrary
The Taliban claims it does "not allow anyone to use the soil of Afghanistan against other countries including neighboring countries." Some have uncritically accepted this claim. But it is obviously false.

Daniel F. Runde and Earl Anthony Wayne write: U.S. support to Afghanistan can be categorized into three buckets: a) troops and related support personnel on the ground; b) financial support to the Afghan security forces; and c) economic, development, and governance support (e.g., traditional foreign aid). U.S. contributions to all of these buckets have been dropping as Afghanistan’s authorities have assumed greater responsibility of the country’s security and development. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Debunking the Myths of the War in Afghanistan by David Barno and Nora Bensahel

Michael Knights and Frzand Sherko write: The jury is still out concerning whether either Muqtada al-Sadr’s movement or Badr has truly joined the notional Iraqi political mainstream, given that both retain significant armed forces and both refuse to fully subordinate themselves to the state. All this being true, the United States regards both Sadr’s movement and Badr as legitimate political actors and indispensable components of the partisan landscape in Iraq. – Washington Institute

ISRAELI ELECTIONS ARE HEATING UP: COMPETITION TRIES TO KNOCK OFF NETANYAHU & MIDDLE EAST FORUM DEMANDS THAT MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD STATUS MUST CHANGE

2/6/2019

Netanyahu rival wins big in Likud primary
Despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's concentrated efforts to stifle Gideon Saar, the former minister has managed to win a top spot on the Likud’s list for the April 9 elections.

Why The United States Should Officially Label This Muslim Brotherhood Leader a Terrorist
by Kyle Shideler
The Federalist
January 29, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/57698/label-muslim-brotherhood-leader-terrorist

HOW SHOULD US HANDLE RIYADH NUCLEAR AMBITIONS, SAUDI REFORM AGENDA STALLS & ISRAELI RED LINES IN SYRIA & LEBANON

2/6/2019

How Should the US Handle Saudi Nuclear Power Aspirations? By Debalina Ghoshal, February 7, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The US is on the horns of a dilemma regarding Saudi Arabia’s interest in nuclear power. Washington would like to cajole Riyadh into a deal that would strengthen non-proliferation, but the kingdom is well aware of the competitors vying for its business and is not necessarily receptive to such arguments. This is a concern for the US, which does not want a Russian or Chinese nuclear energy market to flourish in Saudi Arabia.
Continue to full article ->

The prince is facing what one Saudi executive calls “passive resistance” from within his own government. In addition to delaying the IPO, government officials have scaled back his plans to build the world’s largest solar-generation hub, delayed plans to sell off national assets and prevented the state from increasing its investments in technology companies. – Wall Street Journal

Israel's Red Lines in Lebanon and Syria
By Yaakov Lappin, February 3, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The "War Between Wars" is an ongoing Israeli military and intelligence effort to disrupt the force build-up of the Iranian-Shiite axis throughout the Middle East. This campaign, which has evolved into an entire force activation doctrine, has seen the Israeli defense establishment employ an approach that differentiates between Syria and Lebanon.
Continue to full article ->

A RESURGENT OTTOMAN RETURNS, TURKISH MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS WORRY ERDOGAN & WAR ON THE ROCKS EXAMINES ALLIANCE MANAGEMENT

2/5/2019

Erdogan equates PKK, pro-Kurdish opposition to court nationalist voters
As municipal elections near, the Turkish president is ramping up his rhetoric against his pro-Kurdish opposition, equating Turkey's third largest party with groups Ankara considers terrorists.

A Sovereign Democracy and a Dud Partner: Explaining the Slide in U.S.-Turkey Relations by Nadir Firat

Has Turkish President Erdoğan Distanced Himself from the Muslim Brotherhood? by Burak Bekdil

AL-SISI'S POLITICAL ECONOMY DEPENDS ON MIDDLE CLASS CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

2/5/2019

Middle class, entrepreneurs key to Egypt's economic recovery
The Egyptian government is implementing programs to help curb poverty and meet the needs of low- and middle-income citizens, but analysts believe more should be done.

Will Sisi run for third term?
Egypt is seemingly heading toward amending Article 140 of the constitution, as well as others, which would allow President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to run for one or even two consecutive terms of six years each.

HOW IRAN WILL CONTROL SYRIA WITH INSURGENCY, CIVILIAN DEATHS IN YEMENI CIVIL WAR REMAIN IRANIAN & IRANIAN PROTESTS CONTINUE THROUGH 40TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE REVOLUTION

2/4/2019

Iran would like to move its weapons supply center for Syria from the Damascus international airport to a Syrian air base located very far from the capital city. Specifically, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, which runs this operation, apparently will relocate the center to the Syrian air base known as T4, located between Homs and Palmyra. – Haaretz

More than One Year Later, Iran’s Protests Endure Tehran is caught in a straitjacket

Analysis: The budding insurgency in southern Syria
Yesterday, a low-quality video depicting an IED attack on a regime checkpoint in southern Syria was uploaded to the internet. A relatively unknown group, the Popular Resistance, claimed credit within the video itself. While this small outfit has claimed a series of sporadic attacks since its inception last fall, it nonetheless represents a budding insurgency […]

How Tehran Plans to Control Syria
by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
February 1, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/57709/tehran-plans-control-syria

Iran’s Support for al-Qaeda is Incompatible with FATF Standards

Britain’s Arms Export Chief Finds Iran, Houthis Most Responsible for Civilian Dead in Yemen

Jerome Drevon writes: The seizure of the northern Syrian province of Idlib by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from other armed opposition groups in early January once again brings to the fore the debate over its ties to al-Qaeda (AQ). – Middle East Institute

PAKISTAN CENTRAL BANK TARGETS TERROR FUNDING

2/3/2019

Pakistan’s central bank targets funding terror, money laundering

FEUDING ARAB STATES DAMAGES US REGIONAL POLICY

2/3/2019

ODNI Releases Annual Overview of Islamic State and Al Qaeda Networks
By Thomas Joscelyn, FDD's Long War Journal: “The ODNI warns that both the Islamic State and al Qaeda maintain global networks that are far from defeated. The Islamic State still has “thousands” of fighters in Iraq and Syria alone, contradicting claims by President Trump and other administration officials that the so-called caliphate has been defeated.”

Getting Peace Right in Afghanistan: A Political Solution to a Military Problem
By Thang Tran, Leo Blanken & Philip Swintek, Atlantic Council: “After seventeen years of war in Afghanistan, the NATO Mission Commander, U.S. Army Gen. Austin “Scott” Miller, provided a candid assessment of the situation, stating: “This [war in Afghanistan] is not going to be won militarily… This is going to a political solution.”"

What Is At Stake In Yemen
by Fahad Nazer via AnalysisContrary to the prevailing perception that the conflict in Yemen has been forgotten by the international community, the war has garnered a fair amount of attention. However, what is being overlooked is what is at stake in Yemen, how the conflict started, and why it has continued. Instead of focusing exclusively on the Saudi-led coalition’s involvement in the conflict, those seeking to understand the war and the ensuing humanitarian crisis should examine Yemen’s turbulent history, fragile state, the Houthi rebels’ record of militancy, and Iran’s designs to create yet another proxy force in an Arab country.

LEBANON HOLLOWED OUT FROM IRANIAN SUBTERFUGE & BEGIN SADAT CENTER ON ISRAELI RED LINES AND DOMESTIC POLITICAL MILITARISM

2/1/2019

New Government Demonstrates Hezbollah’s Dominance of Lebanon

Lebanon’s crisis is complicated by Gulf rivalry
Karen E. Young | Financial Times

Israel's Red Lines in Lebanon and Syria
By Yaakov Lappin, February 3, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The "War Between Wars" is an ongoing Israeli military and intelligence effort to disrupt the force build-up of the Iranian-Shiite axis throughout the Middle East. This campaign, which has evolved into an entire force activation doctrine, has seen the Israeli defense establishment employ an approach that differentiates between Syria and Lebanon.
Continue to full article ->

The Israeli Left's Unabashed Militarism
By Prof. Udi Lebel, February 1, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Israeli Left’s obsession with toppling PM Benjamin Netanyahu has driven it to embrace a military “dream team” bent on overthrowing a civilian ruling party. This echoes the all-too-common phenomenon of Third World military juntas seizing power to “save the nation” from “corrupt politicians.” Generals brought to power as “national saviors” in times of deep crisis have often been the harbingers of populism, authoritarianism, and fascism.
Continue to full article ->

HOW ISRAEL WINS: DANIEL PIPES
File Size:	855 kb
File Type:	pdf

prism_9-1.pdf
File Size:	8134 kb
File Type:	pdf

FRAGILITY & FAILURE
File Size:	3456 kb
File Type:	pdf

CIVILIAN LED APPROACH: THE LONG WAR
File Size:	806 kb
File Type:	pdf

US: THE LONG WAR GAME
File Size:	564 kb
File Type:	pdf

America's Anti-Colonial Wars Abroad
File Size:	616 kb
File Type:	pdf

RETHINKING EGYPT'S ECONOMY
File Size:	2736 kb
File Type:	pdf

EGYPT: CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS, ECONOMY
File Size:	53 kb
File Type:	pdf

national-identity_web-1.pdf
File Size:	1137 kb
File Type:	pdf

AFRICA'S POST COLONIAL ERA ENDING
File Size:	156 kb
File Type:	pdf

AFRICAN ARAB SPRING

AFRICAN ARAB SPRING
File Size:	786 kb
File Type:	pdf

ISHMAEL IS NOT FATHER OF ARABS

ISHMAEL NOT FATHER OF ARAB CIVILIZATION
File Size:	995 kb
File Type:	pdf

DEFEATING SECTARIANISM IN MIDDLE EAST

rand_rb10052.pdf
File Size:	856 kb
File Type:	pdf

SECULARISM, NATIONALISM, ISLAMISM: MAKING MODERN MIDDLE EAST
File Size:	95 kb
File Type:	pdf

terrorism-tactics-and-transformation.pdf
File Size:	1422 kb
File Type:	pdf

CHANGING DYNAMICS OF SALAFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS

FOREIGN AFFAIRS - THE ARAB SPRING @ 5
File Size:	15719 kb
File Type:	pdf

BIN SALMAN & THE REFORM OF SAUDI ARABIA
File Size:	83 kb
File Type:	pdf

NATIONAL INTEREST, ARAB SPRING
File Size:	207 kb
File Type:	pdf

FOLLOWING VISION 2030

HOOVER; ISLAMISM

MEF RADIO LIVE

SECTARIANISM MIDDLE EAST.pdf
File Size:	1462 kb
File Type:	pdf

THE PAKISTAN READER

ARAB SPRING & POLITICAL REFORM
File Size:	11836 kb
File Type:	pdf

ISRAELI NEWS NETWORK

THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM

250 YEARS OF AMERICAN IRREGULAR WAR

AEI - CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT: SALIFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS GROWING

ABBAS MILANI HOOVER PAGE: IRAN & U.S. RELATIONS

HOOVER INSTITUTION BLOG ON THE NEAR EAST

JEWISH INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY OF AMERICA

FATA PAKISTAN RESEARCH CENTER

ISRAELI NUCLEAR POSTURE & DOCTRINES

CONTAIN, DEGRADE, DEFEAT: PLAN FOR MIDDLE EAST

THE PLAN TO DEFEAT THE ISLAMIC STATE & al-QAEDA

CENTER FOR SECURITY, REGIONAL STUDIES, KABUL

AfPak POLICY OPTIONS

ISLAMISM & INTERNATIONAL ORDER

HOOVER INSTITUTION PUBLICATION ON U.S. NEAR EAST POLICY

Israeli Security & Gulf States

PRINCIPALS GUIDING US POLICY IN MIDDLE EAST

HOW ISRAEL WINS

FREE BOOKS ON MIDDLE EAST

AEI: GLOBAL JIHADI THREAT & BEYOND

HOOVER: OPERATIONAL GUIDE FOR THE LONG WAR

THE ETTINGER REPORT: U.S. ISRAELI RELATIONS

GOOGLE NEWS PAKISTAN

HOW TO WIN WORLD WAR IV

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE LONG WAR

Archives

March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
February 2022
January 2022
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
September 2015

Categories

WASH. INSTITUTE NEAR EAST POLICY

BROOKINGS

TAHRIR INSTITUTE MIDDLE EAST POLICY

MIDDLE EAST FORUM

BELFER CENTER

Tweets by WilliamHolland

Tweets by LongWarJournal