“What we found surprised us, particularly when it came to foreign fighter radicalization. It turns out that the best predictor of foreign fighter radicalization was not a country’s wealth. Nor was it how well-educated its citizens were, how healthy they were, or even how much Internet access they enjoyed. Instead, the top predictor was whether a country was Francophone; that is, whether it currently lists (or previously listed) French as a national language. As strange as it may seem, four of the five countries with the highest rates of radicalization in the world are Francophone, including the top two in Europe (France and Belgium). Knowledgeable readers will immediately object that the raw numbers tell a different story. The English-speaking United Kingdom, for example, has produced far more foreign fighters than French-speaking Belgium. And fighters from Saudi Arabia number in the several thousands. But the raw numbers are misleading. If you view the foreign fighters as a percentage of the overall Muslim population, you see a different picture. Per Muslim resident, Belgium produces far more foreign fighters than either the United Kingdom or Saudi Arabia. So what could the language of love possibly have to do with Islamist violence? We suspect that it is really a proxy for something else: French political culture.”
The French connection: Explaining Sunni militancy around the world” (William McCants and Christopher Meserole, Order from Chaos)
“What we found surprised us, particularly when it came to foreign fighter radicalization. It turns out that the best predictor of foreign fighter radicalization was not a country’s wealth. Nor was it how well-educated its citizens were, how healthy they were, or even how much Internet access they enjoyed. Instead, the top predictor was whether a country was Francophone; that is, whether it currently lists (or previously listed) French as a national language. As strange as it may seem, four of the five countries with the highest rates of radicalization in the world are Francophone, including the top two in Europe (France and Belgium). Knowledgeable readers will immediately object that the raw numbers tell a different story. The English-speaking United Kingdom, for example, has produced far more foreign fighters than French-speaking Belgium. And fighters from Saudi Arabia number in the several thousands. But the raw numbers are misleading. If you view the foreign fighters as a percentage of the overall Muslim population, you see a different picture. Per Muslim resident, Belgium produces far more foreign fighters than either the United Kingdom or Saudi Arabia. So what could the language of love possibly have to do with Islamist violence? We suspect that it is really a proxy for something else: French political culture.”
0 Comments
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced a slate of new cabinet ministers yesterday. The new appointees are technocrats of diverse backgrounds. “They were chosen on the basis of professionalism, competence, integrity, and leadership ability," Abadi said in remarks to the Iraqi parliament. "Most of [the nominees] have academic credentials, but they all have experience of working in a senior executive position, managing, or administrating," Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst, told Reuters.
Abadi has promised anti-corruption reforms since entering office, but had his agenda derailed by parliamentary opposition late last year. The efforts gained new momentum with pressure from prominent Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who in February began organizing large protests in support of appointees who do not have political affiliations. In announcing the slate of appointees to parliament on Thursday, Abadi thanked Sadr for his support, and afterwards Sadr called the proposed cabinet “courageous” and ended a sit-in by his supporters in Baghdad’s Green Zone. “Our efforts have been rewarded,” he told the crowd, who chanted back, “We will never be humiliated!” The parliament has 10 days to review and vote on Abadi’s nominees and has postponed their next session until tomorrow to review the list of appointments. Political defections cause trouble for Afghan government
The Afghan government is facing a wave of defections and calls for new elections from former supporters, according to a report by the Washington Post on Tuesday (Post). Anwar ul-Haq Ahadi, a former supporter of the government and former finance minister under Hamid Karzai, commented: “f it performed well, people were willing to give the [national unity] government the benefit of the doubt. But it hasn’t. It has proved disastrous for this country.” Ahadi, who formed an opposition movement stated: “They have mismanaged the country and lost their legitimacy. They should go back to the people and ask for a new mandate.” The report notes discontent even on the part of remaining supporters. Ahmad Zia Massoud, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s special representative for reform and good governance, expressed frustration; “The issues they debate at the cabinet meetings are only minor. They don’t address any major issues facing the country.” Seyyed Hussein Anwari, a military adviser to Ghani similarly stated: “Nothing was achieved in the areas of security, economy, peace, [the] fight against corruption and improving political stability.” For his part, Ahadi warned: “We don’t want to create a situation where people take to the streets, but there is a possibility of widespread demonstrations.” Bonus Read: Terror in Lahore: Pakistan’s Toughest Test,” by Michael Kugelman (South Asia). Bonus Read: “A Crisis for Minorities in Pakistan,” by Rozina Ali (New Yorker) Pakistan detains more than 5,000 in wake of Lahore bombing Pakistan has detained more than 5,000 people in the wake of the bombing that killed 72 people in Lahore on Easter Sunday, according to a report by Reuters on Tuesday (Reuters). Rana Sanaullah, a state minister for Punjab province, stated: “5,221 people have initially been detained. 5,005 have been released after verifying their identities, and 216 people have been referred for further investigation.” Army Spokesman Gen. Asim Bajwa commented, “operations are ongoing, intelligence agencies and Rangers and army troops are carrying out operations.” On Tuesday, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JUA), the group behind the Lahore bombing threatened further violence in Pakistan (WSJ). The militant group’s spokesman, Ehsanullah Ehsan, tweeted: “Let Nawaz Sharif know that this war has now reached the doorstep of his home.” The group also released a photo of a man it claims to be the suicide bomber. Editorial: The best approach, as Pakistan should have learned by now, is not to tolerate or negotiate with such extremists, but to forcefully confront them. Exceptions cannot be made for jihadists who fight for causes favored by the Pakistani elite, such as the “liberation” of Kashmir from Indian rule, or Taliban battling the Afghan government. While Mr. Sharif and the military leadership have come a long way toward accepting those tenets, they have not yet fully embraced them. That means terrorism will remain a threat to Pakistan for the foreseeable future. – Washington Post Pakistani counter-terrorism police killed at least five people Wednesday and arrested scores more in what it described as an intensified crackdown following a deadly suicide bombing at a public park in the eastern city of Lahore. – Los Angeles Times
An anonymous "senior general officer" in the Israeli Air Force tells Defense News that Vladimir Putin hasn't really left Syria, he's just changed his footprint there. While Russia pulled out a number of jets from its air base in Latakia, "now there’s more emphasis on air support by attack helicopters," according to the source. Israeli intelligence estimates say that the advanced S-400 air defense missiles that Russia deployed to Syria are there to stay for the indefinite future. Echoing recent statements by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, the source says Iran has pulled out a large number of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps troops from Syria, replacing them with smaller numbers of troops from Iran.
“Why it’s wrong to say that the Arab uprisings failed” (Marc Lynch, Monkey Cage)
“Conventional wisdom holds that the Arab uprisings that began in Tunisia in December 2010 failed. It’s hard to argue with such a harsh verdict. Most Arab regimes managed to survive their popular challenges through some combination of cooptation, coercion and modest reform. Egypt’s transition ended in an even harsher military regime. Yemen and Libya collapsed into state failure and regionalized wars, while Syria degenerated into a horrific war. But simply dismissing the uprisings as a failure does not capture how fully they have transformed every dimension of the region’s politics. Today’s authoritarians are more repressive because they are less stable, more frightened and ever more incapable of sustaining their domination. With oil prices collapsing and popular discontent again spiking, it is obvious that the generational challenge of the Arab uprising is continuing to unfold. ‘Success or failure’ is not a helpful way to understand these ongoing societal and political processes.” Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi fired the country’s top anti-corruption official yesterday. Though Sisi did not give a formal reason for his firing, Hesham Geneina, the country’s senior auditor, was under review for comments made to media in December that corruption cost Egypt $76 billion over the past four years, a figure the State Security Prosecution’s office says is exaggerated.
Also yesterday, Egypt's Supreme Judicial Council forced 32 judges into retirement, in addition to 15 others who were retired last week, for refusing to recognize the legality of the military’s ouster of Mohamed Morsi in 2013. The judges have been suspended for the past year pending review by the Supreme Judicial Council. The decision drew immediate criticism from the International Commission for Jurists, which has called for the judges to be reinstated and said the move sends a "chilling message to others who might challenge the ongoing crackdown on fundamental rights and freedoms in Egypt.” The Brookings Institution has announced a new series, “Islamists on Islamism Today,” in which self-professed Islamists will engage with scholars about the future of their movements.
Dawn Pakistan: http://www.dawn.com/news/1248435/military-gives-go-ahead-for-punjab-operation-after-lahore-carnage LWJ: "Target was Christians" http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/03/the-target-was-christians-pakistani-taliban-says-of-lahore-easter-attack.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ LongWarJournalSiteWide+%28The+Long+War+Journal+%28Site-Wide%29%29 The Pakistani militants who bombed a Lahore park on Easter Sunday, killing 70 people, taunted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Tuesday, declaring their war had come to his doorstep. - Reuters The Taliban faction that killed at least 70 people, many of them children, in a park in Lahore on Easter Sunday has been quickly gaining attention in militant circles. - Reuters Pakistani authorities detained more than 5,000 suspected militants in two days since a suicide bomber attacked crowds in a busy park in the eastern city of Lahore on Easter Day, killing at least 70 people, a provincial minister said on Tuesday. - Reuters Law minister: Punjab crackdown a national operation
On Tuesday, Rana Sanaullah, the law minister for Punjab, stated that the military crackdown in Punjab following a bombing that killed 72 people on Easter would be a “national operation” (Dawn). Sanaullah commented that some areas “have been identified where operations will be launched by police, elite force and the counter-terrorism department, and if need be Rangers and Army will be called in.” The statement came a day after the military confirmed the launch of a crackdown in Punjab. Afghanistan Bonus Read: “Back Into Afghanistan,” by Gerald F. Hyman (Foreign Affairs). Top Afghan election official resigns On Saturday, Ahmad Yusuf Nuristani, the head of Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC), resigned (RFE/RL). A spokesman for the IEC stated that Nuristani had resigned in the “national interest.” Afghan President Ashraf Ghani accepted the resignation. Nuristani had repeatedly criticized government interference in the election, and his resignation has raised concerns regarding the effort to organize Parliamentary elections scheduled for Oct. 15. Afghan parliament suffers rocket attack On Monday, three rockets were fired at the new Afghan Parliament building with one falling inside the building (Pajhwok, TOLO News). The lower house was in session during the attack. The rocket strike caused no casualties. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid claimed responsibility for the strike. Chief Justice’s father kidnapped On Monday, a spokesman for the governor of Nangarhar province, announced that the 90-year-old father of Syed Yousuf Halim, the chief justice of Afghanistan’s supreme court, had been kidnapped (Pajhwok). The spokesman stated that Syed Hassan, the father of the chief justice, had been kidnapped last week on his way home from the mosque. Prospects of jumpstarting peace talks with the Taliban are becoming increasingly dim amid recent battlefield gains by the insurgents in Afghanistan, an embattled government in Kabul and growing suspicions of Pakistan's good intentions in facilitating such negotiations. – Associated Press
Pakistan rejects calls to curb tactical nuclear weapons On Friday, Pakistan’s top nuclear security adviser, Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, rejected calls from the United States to curb Pakistan’s reliance on tactical nuclear weapons (VoA). Kidwai commented, “We are not apologetic about the development of the TNWs [tactical nuclear weapons] and they are here to stay.” Kidwai was speaking before a seminar at Islamabad’s Institute of Strategic Studies. Kidwai’s comments follow testimony before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee by Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller, where she commented: “So, we are really quite concerned about this, and we have made our concerns known, and we will continue to press them about what we consider to be the destabilizing aspects of their battlefield nuclear weapons program.” Pakistani team arrives in India to investigate Pathankot attack
A team of Pakistani experts arrived in India on Sunday to help investigate the Pathankot airbase attack (BBC, Hindu). The team will be given access to all the witnesses to the attack, but they would not be able to interview security personnel. This is the first time that Pakistani intelligence and police officials have travelled to India to investigate a militant attack. Seven security personnel and six attackers were killed in the January 2016 attack at the air force base in Pathankot, in the western state of Punjab. India blames Pakistan based militants from Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), a banned militant organization, for the attack. Diplomatic talks between the countries were postponed after the attack. Pakistan claims to have arrested senior members of JeM. “Saudi Brinkmanship in Lebanon” (Benedetta Berti, Sada) “However, any potential regional success comes with a price in Lebanon. Ironically, the biggest casualty of Saudi Arabia’s more confrontational policy toward Lebanon and Hezbollah will be its own local allies. First and foremost, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his Future Movement are placed in an especially difficult position. Recent Saudi pressure has prompted the movement to make more vitriolic attacks against Hezbollah. Yet Hariri’s posturing still falls short of satisfying Riyadh, which has signaled it will not back down until Lebanon rids itself of ‘Hezbollah interference.’ Needless to say, this is an objective Hariri cannot deliver, making him look weak and isolated at a time when his March 14 coalition is confronting new divisions over the presidential elections and Hariri himself faces declining popularity within his own community. It appears to the Lebanese that Saudi Arabia is hanging Hariri out to dry and, along with him, what is left of the political capital of the forces that spurred the 2005 Cedar Revolution.” Nat. Review: Saudi's Need to Change Course
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433251/saudi-arabia-needs-change-course Dawn Pakistan: http://www.dawn.com/news/1248259/at-least-69-dead-after-suicide-attack-in-lahore-park TOI, Times of India: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Suicide-bomber-kills-70-injures-over-300-in-Lahore-park-blast/articleshow/51576879.cms Terror in Pakistan. A suicide bomber killed at least 65 and wounded around 300 people in a park in Lahore, Pakistan over the weekend. Jamaat-e-Ahrar, a splinter group of the Pakistani Taliban claimed credit for the brutal assault, which killed scores of children. “The target were Christians,” said a spokesman for the group. “We want to send this message to Minister Nawaz Sharif that we have entered Lahore. He can do what he wants but he won’t be able to stop us. Our suicide bombers will continue these attacks.” Bombing in Lahore kills more than 70, mostly women and children On Sunday, a suicide bombing killed more than 70 people at a neighborhood park in Lahore, where many Christians were celebrating Easter (Reuters, CNN, WSJ, Post, BBC, Fox, ET, Dawn). At least 29 children were among those killed, and the bomber detonated his explosive in an area marked off for women and children. Jamaat-ur-Ahrar, a Taliban faction, claimed the bombing. The group’s spokesman, Ehsanullah Ehsan, stated: “It was our people who attacked the Christians in Lahore, celebrating Easter,” adding, “It’s our message to the government that we will carry out such attacks again until sharia [Islamic law] is imposed in the country.” The Chief Minister of Punjab, of which Lahore is the capital, Shahbaz Sharif, who is Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s brother, stated: “Those who targeted innocent citizens do not deserve to be called humans,” pledging, “We will hunt you down.” The Pakistani military has already conducted several raids in response to the bombing and is reportedly considering a larger operation across Punjab. The death toll in a devastating suicide attack on picnicking families in the city of Lahore rose to 72, with another 230 injured, local media reports said Monday, as Pakistani authorities vowed to hunt down the Islamist militant bombers who claimed they specifically targeted Christians on Easter Sunday. – Washington Post
“Growing Stress on Jordan” (Robert Satloff and David Schenker, Washington Institute for Near East Policy) “Jordan’s stability is a high priority for the United States. It is a main partner in fighting the Islamic State, in confronting Iranian expansionism, and in supporting a peaceful resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Jordan’s quiet cooperation with its treaty partner, Israel, is a plus for U.S. regional interests. Domestic instability in Jordan -- especially turmoil that threatens the leadership status quo -- would endanger these important U.S. interests. Mounting pressures on Jordan’s meager resources from refugees -- as well as corresponding austerity measures -- could feed destabilizing anti-regime sentiment. Although Islamic State-inspired terrorist attacks in the kingdom would likely produce a rally-around-the-flag effect, security incidents could further damage an already strained economy. Any further flow of refugees could tip the scales, triggering a crisis -- potentially from malcontents among the refugee population and/or from disaffected Jordanians.” King Abdullah II of Jordan told U.S. congressmen that Jordanian and Israeli F-16s confronted Russian fighter aircraft as they approached the southern Syrian border during the recent Russian air campaign in the Middle East against anti-Assad rebels. Haaretz reported King Abdullah made the claim on Jan. 11th of this year. – Washington Times
Widespread maintenance and safety issues at a Jordanian training base used by American special forces could’ve had disastrous consequences for the personnel deployed there, according to the Pentagon's internal watchdog. – Military Times Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi announced a cabinet reshuffle today, appointing new officials to 10 posts, including justice minister, finance minister, investment minister, labor minister, tourism minister, and others. Eric Trager writes: President Obama should urge President Sisi -- vigorously and directly, but not publicly -- to end the inquiry and quell the crisis as soon as possible. Alternatively, if the crisis persists, the U.S. support that Sisi still claims to value will become much less politically tenable. – Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Geopolitical Futures: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-pitfalls-of-us-power/
The Marines are expected to begin using their artillery to support Iraqi and peshmerga troops operating near Mosul as they prepare for their eventual assault on the city, which ISIS has held since June, 2014. The U.S. has already deployed artillery to other bases in Iraq, but the location is the first known American outpost established specifically to provide artillery support to local forces. It is unclear how many Marines are at the base, and defense officials would not comment on whether the deployment increases the number of U.S. troops deployed to Iraq, which currently stands at about 3,800. After Saturday’s attack, reports emerged that even more Marines may be sent to Iraq to beef up security. The Shia Fight in Irak Iraq's Shiite clerics are also playing an increasingly prominent role in Iraqi politics, as both Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and Moqtada al Sadr have been pressuring Baghdad over corruption, Reuters reports. The two leaders have different styles, with Sadr as more brash, populist, and willing to send devotees into the streets and Sistani exercising a more reserved moral authority. But both have displayed independence from neighboring Iran. Sistani has been mum since a February address in which the cleric pledged to focus more on religious matters, but Sadr has vowed to challenge Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi with a no confidence vote in parliament unless a series of anti-corruption reforms are implemented. Corruption Scandal Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is still under pressure from supporters of cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to implement anti-corruption reforms and form a cabinet of non-partisan technocrats; Sadr is reportedly coordinating his political position with Iraq’s senior Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Obama's confidential message to Haider al-Abadi, which was confirmed to Reuters by two U.S. officials and has not been previously reported, was not about Islamic State or Iraq's sectarian divide. It was about a potential catastrophe posed by the dire state of the country's largest dam, whose collapse could unleash a flood killing tens of thousands of people and trigger an environmental disaster. - Reuters
The Contours of 'the pullout' Russia is threatening to throw out the ceasefire in Syria unless the U.S. agrees to a set of rules of engagement against rebel groups violating it, the AP reports. Lt. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi accused the U.S. of dragging its feet on talks about monitoring the terms of the recent cessation of hostilities, saying his American counterparts were "not ready for this particular discussion." The U.S. and Russia worked with a coalition of rebel groups and the Syrian government to forge a ceasefire which would allow continued targeting of the Islamic State and the Nusra Front, al Qaeda's Syrian franchise. Violence is down since the agreement went into effect but sporadic violence between the various warring parties has continued. Russia may be pulling back -- if only slightly or temporarily -- from the conflict in Syria, but Hezbollah says it's staying for the long haul, regardless of what Russia or even Iran does. In an interview on Lebanese television on Monday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that the group's "fate and the fate of our Syrian brothers is one and indivisible" and pledged to hang on in the country until its enemies were defeated. As the U.S., Russia, and other parties to the conflict gear up for talks to end the fighting, Nasrallah said Hezbollah is open to a political solution but remains capable of surging more forces into Syria if need be. There is NO Russian Withdrawal “There Is No Russian Withdrawal from Syria” (Dmitry Gorenburg and Michael Kofman, War on the Rocks) “This maneuver is more about political perceptions than military reality. It constitutes a political reframing of Russia’s intervention in order to normalize Moscow’s military presence in Syria, and make it permanent, while convincing Russians at home that the campaign is over. Putin’s statement is yet another successful effort to achieve a domestic and international publicity coup. The ‘withdrawal’ announcement is not about how Russia leaves, but about how it stays in Syria. Those who have doubts should watch the actual video of Putin ordering Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to initiate the withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria. He orders that Russia’s existing bases in Tartus and Hmeymim continue to operate at present levels. In addition, Russia’s defense minister is to ensure that they are fully defended from land, sea, and air. The worrisome S-400 long range air defense, along with shorter range systems, will remain in place, a point emphasized in later statement by Vladimir Putin. Russia’s main military bases will continue operations: with naval cover, a ground contingent for force protection, and an unknown number of troops still on the ground to advise Syrian forces.” Anna Borshchevskaya writes: Putin's regime is less stable than meets the eye, and Russia's future remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Putin's faux withdrawal raises a more immediate question. If Syria is no longer in the news, what will the Kremlin use to distract the public? Will Putin embark on another adventure? As Vladislav Naganov, Central Council member of Alexei Nalny's Party of Progress writes, "[N]ow we will look at all the professional propagandists and pseudo-patriots, who only yesterday with foam at the mouth assured that Russia will continue to fight against international terrorism for Syria until the end...It's ok, it won't be their first time." - Forbes Middle East Forum http://www.meforum.org/5876/why-putin-wants-syria
U.S. intensifies bombing against IS in Afghanistan The United States has intensified its air campaign in Afghanistan as the Islamic State widened its reach in the country, according to a report by the New York Times on Friday (NYT). According to Air Force data, the United States conducted three times as many strikes in January and February this year as it did in the same period last year. The increase in strikes follows a decision by U.S. President Barack Obama to grant more leeway for strikes on the Islamic State in Afghanistan. The rate of strikes is the highest since 2013. Fire Base Bell hearkens back to the United States’ older wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, where small outposts with names like Fire Base Phoenix and Combat Outpost Turbett were ubiquitous and where the creation of yet one more would only be noticed by the enemy and the troops that had to fill the sandbags. Yet in the fight against the Islamic State, the creation of a U.S. outpost indicates a noteworthy development in a battle that is largely fought from the skies. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint
|
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
Archives
June 2023
Categories |