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GLOBAL strike MEDIA
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centcom & The long war

Trump's Syrian & Turkish Policy Is Obama's

3/31/2017

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The growing rift between the [United States and Turkey] stems from the intractable dispute over the U.S. plan to liberate Raqqa with a loose coalition of Syrian fighters comprising roughly 40 percent Kurdish YPG militia members, who Turkey considers terrorists. – Washington Examiner
Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, declared Thursday that the Trump administration does not consider it a priority that Syrian President Bashar Assad be removed from power — overtly signaling a U.S. policy shift that observers say quietly began under the Obama administration. - Politico
Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson showered praise on Turkey’s government on Thursday, despite what some international critics see as a slide toward authoritarianism, and in response he got an earful of grievances from Turkish officials. – New York Times
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Taliban Take More Ground & India's Nuclear Calculus Changing

3/31/2017

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FDD
India may be reinterpreting its nuclear weapons doctrine, circumstantial evidence suggests, with potentially significant ramifications for the already tenuous nuclear balance in South Asia. – New York Times
 
A bomb apparently targeting a mosque in Pakistan's northwestern city of Parachinar killed at least 22 people on Friday and wounded dozens in an attack claimed by the Pakistani Taliban. - Reuters
 
Sadanand Dhume writes: Does a record of making inflammatory speeches about Muslims help or hurt your prospects in India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party? The appointment earlier this month of 44-year-old Yogi Adityanath to lead Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state, suggests that it’s a career booster, not a career killer. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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U.S. Best Regional Mesopotamian Ally:  Kurds

3/31/2017

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U.S., SYRIA: Why Syria’s Kurds Are America’s Key Ally
From Fritz Lodge, The Cipher Brief: “Syrian Kurds have risen to international prominence as their most powerful political group, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), has built its People’s Protection Units (YPG) into one of the most formidable fighting forces in the Syrian civil war. ””
AEI
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Russian's Arm Taliban

3/30/2017

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U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Joseph Votel accused Russia of providing support to the Taliban in Afghanistan during testimony to House lawmakers Wednesday. – Washington Times
 
The head of U.S. Central Command said on Wednesday that the Pentagon is reviewing whether to send additional U.S. forces to Afghanistan. – The Hill
 
As America's 16-year war in Afghanistan drags on, Russia is resurrecting its own interest in the "graveyard of empires." The jockeying includes engaging the Taliban and leading a new diplomatic effort to tackle Afghanistan's future, all while Washington leaves the world guessing on its strategy for ending the conflict. – Associated Press
The drumbeat in Washington is getting louder over Russia’s purported involvement with Afghanistan’s Taliban. – Washington Times
 
Once the hotbed of the Taliban insurgency, Kandahar has remained relatively stable as district after district in surrounding provinces has fallen to the militants. But the two explosions, which killed 13 people, and the investigation that followed, highlighted the increasing complexity of the Afghan war, particularly in Kandahar, which is riven by political and tribal rivalries. – New York Times
 
As America's 16-year war in Afghanistan drags on, Russia is resurrecting its own interest in the "graveyard of empires." The jockeying includes engaging the Taliban and leading a new diplomatic effort to tackle Afghanistan's future, all while Washington leaves the world guessing on its strategy for ending the conflict. – Associated Press
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Weak Saudi Government Threatened

3/30/2017

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As the White House is reportedly weighing deeper military involvement in the Yemeni civil war alongside Middle Eastern allies, America’s top commander in the region told Congress “there are vital U.S. interests at stake” in the fight. – Defense News
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Iranian Threat Growing Fast

3/30/2017

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Iran poses the "most significant threat" in the Middle East, where its nefarious activities and support for terror organizations have grown since the announcement of the landmark nuclear agreement, according to the top U.S. military commander in the region. – Washington Free Beacon
 
Iran, through its proxy forces in Yemen, is turning a vital international waterway into a militarized chokepoint that threatens freedom of navigation, a senior U.S. commander charged Wednesday. – Washington Examiner
 
Tzvi Kahn writes: Iran has likely threatened to withdraw from the deal merely to deter a robust U.S. response to its regional aggression. After all, such a move would deprive the country of billions in international sanctions relief at a time when its economy, though improved since the agreement, remains fragile. In this context, the new legislation marks a belated attempt to restore U.S. deterrence and call Tehran’s bluff. – Foundation for Defense of Democracies
 
Ilan Berman writes: [T]he growing opposition emerging to his government and the mounting (and officially sanctioned) pressure he now faces mean that Rouhani’s political victory is no longer a sure thing. In other words, having staked his political credibility on the inevitable benefits of a nuclear bargain with the West, Iran’s president might yet become its most high-profile casualty. – Foreign Affairs
 
Martin Indyk writes: Countering Iran’s regional hegemonic ambitions is a deadly serious business. In pursuing this objective, we should be careful about making threats unless we are prepared to back them up, and we should be wary of declaring objectives that we have neither the will nor interest to achieve. Above all, we should be mindful of the logical consequences of our strategy and think those through before launching on a course that could well have the opposite effect of what we intended. None of those cautions, however, should deter the United States from taking up the challenge while we have the opportunity to do so. – Brookings Institution
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U.S. Turkish Relations going Bad to Worse

3/30/2017

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  • US, Turkey set on a collision course as Tillerson visits Ankara
Turkey expected a honeymoon with President Donald Trump. Instead, it increasingly looks like Ankara and Washington are heading for a squabble, if not a divorce. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
He has already met the Mexican and Chinese presidents and hosted a conclave of 68 nations fighting the Islamic State, but no meeting in Rex W. Tillerson’s brief tenure as secretary of state will be as delicate as the one in Ankara on Thursday with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. – New York Times
 
The German government is weighing alternative locations to Turkey for its forces involved in fighting Islamic State amid rising tensions between the two countries. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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Expanded U.S. Role in Near East & The Slog Called Mosul

3/30/2017

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NYT
Mosul Lays Bare the Challenge of Asymmetric Warfare 
From Merve Tahiroglu & Jonathan Schanzer, Foundation for Defense of Democracies: “As Secretary of State Rex Tillerson prepares to travel to Ankara on Thursday, a new report from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) finds that the Islamic State (IS) has become a significant domestic threat to Turkey, with IS footholds in as many as 70 of Turkey’s 81 provinces. ” ​
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Balfour Declaration at 100:  A Review

3/30/2017

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MEF
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The Chechens of Syria?

3/30/2017

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al-Monitor
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Trump & Foreign Policy of Rogue States

3/29/2017

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Southwest Asian Political Economy & Taliban Map of Control

3/28/2017

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Since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stunned the political establishment by promoting a hardline Hindu priest to one of the country's most powerful positions, Yogi Adityanath has sounded more statesman than rabble-rouser. - Reuters
 
War crime investigations backed by some Western countries and the United Nations will exacerbate the differences between Sri Lanka's two main ethnic groups instead of uniting them, former defense secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa said on Monday. - Reuters
 
Bangladesh army commandos have killed four Islamist militants in the northeastern city of Sylhet during a raid on a building where they were holed up amid local residents, a senior army official said on Monday. - Reuters
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The Brutal murder of Afghan Women:  Tribal Bloodlust

3/28/2017

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The killing of Farkhunda Malikzada, 27, captured on cellphones and shown repeatedly on TV, horrified the nation and the world. It also embarrassed officials of the Western-backed government, which has attempted to promote women's rights in the conservative, tribal Muslim society, where women and girls are often killed with impunity in the name of protecting family honor…The incident also energized the struggling Afghan women's movement, which staged protests outside the shrine. But over time, the momentum dissipated. – Washington Post
 ​
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The Muslim Brotherhood M.O.  Permanent Agitprop

3/28/2017

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Geneive Abdo writes: Despite Sisi’s false claims about the “rule of law in Egypt,” his point is important: there is a relationship between religiously motivated violence and a lack of citizenship in the Arab world. Extremist groups, such as ISIS, and opposition groups across the region are capitalizing on feelings that governments have no respect for individual rights. – The National Interest
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Trump Gaining traction on Islamic State

3/28/2017

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Trump's Islamic State Strategy Is Working
From Kori Schake, Foreign Policy: “Defeating the Islamic State was candidate Trump’s top national-security priority, one of the few policy issues on which he was consistent. While his claim to have a secret plan — and that keeping it secret was good strategy — was risible to national security experts, his policy goals were and are consistent. American effort should focus on fighting the Islamic State. Regime change to push Bashar al-Assad out of power was not only a lesser objective, but counterproductive to a stable end-state for Syria that prevents terrorism and too costly given Russia and Iran’s support for the regime. Stability is to be prioritized over humanitarian relief or democracy promotion. Russia is to be palliated, their interests supported.”
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al-Qaeda in Syria 

3/28/2017

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Lost Arch of Titus

3/28/2017

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Bibi & Temple Mount

3/28/2017

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Knesset members to resume Temple Mount visits
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided Monday that Knesset members could resume visits to the Temple Mount after Ramadan if the security situation remains calm, and the police and security services give them a green light. The number of visits permitted could gradually be increased, subject to conditions on the ground.

​To avoid provoking the Palestinians, Israeli elected officials have not been allowed for the past 18 months to visit the sacred site, which Muslims revere as the Haram al-Sharif. Likud Knesset member Yehuda Glick, who heads the lobby for Jewish prayer on the Temple Mount, threatened last week to petition Israel’s High Court if Netanyahu did not rescind the ban.
The mysterious killing of a leader of Hamas’s military wing, the Qassam Brigades, has raised tensions with Israel and threatened to undermine the fragile cease-fire that ended 50 days of deadly fighting in Gaza in the summer of 2014. – New York Times
 
Public support in Israel for the establishment of a Palestinian state has hit a historic low, according to the findings of a new poll that shows the Israeli people are more skeptical than ever that the Palestinians will take the steps necessary to strike a peace accord with the Jewish state. – Washington Free Beacon

In response to the growing rocket threat to Israel’s offshore energy assets, the Israel Navy is tweaking the design of its new Sa’ar-6 corvettes now under contract in Germany to make room for twice as many Iron Dome interceptors as originally planned. – Defense News
 
An Israeli attempt to establish sovereignty over a disputed area of the Mediterranean has angered Lebanon and put the two countries at odds when both are trying to attract foreign investors in oil and gas. – Financial Times
 
Editorial: Republicans in Congress want to stop the flow of hundreds of millions of dollars a year in U.S. aid to a state sponsor of terrorism: the Palestinian Authority. That’s the same PA that the U.S. and Israel have long supported as a partner for peace. But the PA is no such thing, so this is a chance to bring policy into line with moral and strategic realities. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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Iran Moves Into Russian Orbit

3/27/2017

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As U.S. influence wanes across the Middle East, Iran and Russia have joined forces to expand their power in the region, strengthening political and diplomatic ties and stepping up joint military operations in Syria. In a sign of the closer relations, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is slated to travel Monday to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is expected to be Rouhani’s last major trip before he faces reelection in May. – Washington Post
Michael Carpenter writes: [I]t is important to recognize that while Russia has a clear national interest in defeating ISIS, good counterterrorism policy is about more than just eliminating bad guys. It is also about creating socio-political conditions on the ground that mitigate against future radicalization….So long as that is the case, the United States and the rest of the Counter-ISIS Coalition should steer clear of collaborating with Russia. – Defense One
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Israel Hits Iranian Shia Proxies in Syria

3/27/2017

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The Drive:  Syria Threatens Israel
Michael O’Hanlon writes: [L]eave aside Assad and longer-term issues, including the al-Qaida presence in Syria, for the moment. With this kind of approach towards working with the Syrian Kurds, we will have a much more credible concept, and perhaps a more united coalition, for seeking the defeat of ISIS in the first place. – Brookings Institution
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U.S. Force posture for 'The Long War'

3/27/2017

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Yemen, Saudi Regime & 'The Long War' of Alliances

3/27/2017

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Is Afghanistan Un-winable?

3/27/2017

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Afghanistan War Is Unwinnable
From Douglas A. Wissing, The Hill: “The Afghanistan War is unwinnable. Partnered with a corrupt and ineffective Afghan government, U.S. forces confront a robust and growing insurgency, substantively funded by skimmed American contracts. After 15 years of dysfunctional U.S. development schemes costing over $100 billion, Afghans remain near the bottom of most human development indices.” ​
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al-Qaeda & Syria:  Growing Fast

3/27/2017

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AL QAEDA: Al Qaeda in Syria Links to Afghanistan and Gulf States
From David Andrew Weinberg, FDD's The Long War Journal: “According to Al Jazeera, Muhammad was the first Arab prisoner freed from Afghanistan after the 2001 American invasion. In an interview with Al Jazeera just after his 2002 repatriation, Muhammad credited several Kuwaiti officials with helping to secure his release, first thanking Sabah al Ahmed Al Sabah, who was Kuwait’s foreign minister (FM) in 2001 and is now the country’s ruling amir.”
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Hosni Mubarak Released

3/24/2017

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NYT
Six years after baying crowds ousted him at the peak of the Arab Spring, former President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt was freed on Friday from the Cairo hospital where he had been detained, capping a long and largely fruitless effort to hold him accountable for human rights abuses and endemic corruption during his three decades of rule. – New York Times
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