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AMERICA'S SECRET WAR IN PAKISTAN - AFGHANISTAN & HOW PAKISTAN SCREWS THE U.S. :  DIRECTORATE S BY STEVE COLL

3/28/2018

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Is Peace on the Horizon for Afghanistan? // Krishnadev Calamur
An offer of talks by the Ghani government was met with silence from the Taliban. That, in itself, could be a good sign.
https://www.amazon.com/Directorate-C-I-Americas-Afghanistan-Pakistan/dp/1594204586/ref=asap_bc?i.e.=UTF8
Resuming the narrative of his Pulitzer Prize-winning Ghost Wars, bestselling author Steve Coll tells for the first time the epic and enthralling story of America's intelligence, military, and diplomatic efforts to defeat Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan since 9/11.

Prior to 9/11, the United States had been carrying out small-scale covert operations in Afghanistan, ostensibly in cooperation, although often in direct opposition, with I.S.I., the Pakistani intelligence agency. While the US was trying to quell extremists, a highly secretive and compartmentalized wing of I.S.I., known as "Directorate S," was covertly training, arming, and seeking to legitimize the Taliban, in order to enlarge Pakistan's sphere of influence. After 9/11, when fifty-nine countries, led by the U. S., deployed troops or provided aid to Afghanistan in an effort to flush out the Taliban and Al Qaeda, the U.S. was set on an invisible slow-motion collision course with Pakistan.

Today we know that the war in Afghanistan would falter badly because of military hubris at the highest levels of the Pentagon, the drain on resources and provocation in the Muslim world caused by the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, and corruption. But more than anything, as Coll makes painfully clear, the war in Afghanistan was doomed because of the failure of the United States to apprehend the motivations and intentions of I.S.I.'s "Directorate S". This was a swirling and shadowy struggle of historic proportions, which endured over a decade and across both the Bush and Obama administrations, involving multiple secret intelligence agencies, a litany of incongruous strategies and tactics, and dozens of players, including some of the most prominent military and political figures. A sprawling American tragedy, the war was an open clash of arms but also a covert melee of ideas, secrets, and subterranean violence. 

Coll excavates this grand battle, which took place away from the gaze of the American public. With unsurpassed expertise, original research, and attention to detail, he brings to life a narrative at once vast and intricate, local and global, propulsive and painstaking. 
​
This is the definitive explanation of how America came to be so badly ensnared in an elaborate, factional, and seemingly interminable conflict in South Asia. Nothing less than a forensic examination of the personal and political forces that shape world history, Directorate S is a complete masterpiece of both investigative and narrative journalism
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SHIA CRESENT GROWS AN IRAQI LAND BRIDGE TO ISRAEL & LIMITS TO IRANIAN THEOCRACY?

3/27/2018

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Geneive Abdo writes: But this is different: The controversy over the detention of Ayatollah Hussein Shirazi this month is reigniting an important debate over whether Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, should be able to claim divine sanction for his unlimited powers to rule the state. - Bloomberg
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THE U.S BALANCE IN AFGHANISTAN & PAKISTANI "DEEP STATE" NUKES GET REVIEWED

3/27/2018

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Is America Winning to Lose in Afghanistan?
By Nathan Jennings, RealClearDefense: “The United States has experienced a troubled history with a variety of foreign interventions since achieving definitive victory in the Second World War. These failures may hold insights for the seemingly interminable—and troublingly similar—NATO campaign in Afghanistan.”
 Is ISIS gaining ‘serious’ ground in Afghanistan? Russia says yes. The US says no.
(Military Times) U.S. airstrikes killed two leaders of ISIS-Khorasan — the Islamic State’s Afghan offshoot — this month, as U.S. commanders claim they are fighting a narrative pushed by Russia that IS is growing in the country. 
 
  Afghans soon to fly missions with Black Hawks from US
(The Associated Press) The U.S. military has been flying UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter missions in Afghanistan for years, but the storied aircraft will soon take to the country’s battlefields manned by pilots and crews from the Afghan military. 

 US Slams Pakistani Firms with Sanctions for Nuclear Trade 
(Voice of America) The United States is imposing sanctions on seven Pakistani companies for alleged links to the nuclear trade.
The term "deep state" refers to a coordinated effort by career government employees and other individuals to influence public policy without regard for democratically elected leadership. It is actually the expansion of military complexes and corporate vested interests. The deep state works on the principle that common citizens have no understanding of the complex affairs of the policymakers, hence their collective wisdom to choose elected representatives is not deemed good for the country. According to Jerome...
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PAKISTAN TURNS UP HEAT IN KASHMIR & U.S. SANCTIONS PAKISTANI NUCLEAR COMPANIES

3/27/2018

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India blames Lashkar-e-Taiba for Kashmir attack on security forces
Pakistan continues to fuel the terrorist insurgency inside Jammu and Kashmir by backing Lashkar-e-Taiba and other proxies.
Pakistan has defended its record on nuclear safety after the United States sanctioned seven Pakistani companies over alleged links to the nuclear trade, saying the suspicions over the companies should not be used to discredit it. - Reuters​

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ISRAEL & IRAN:  THE CLASH & ISRAEL TURNS TO NATO AS TURKEY TURNS TO RUSSIA

3/26/2018

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Israel Edges To NATO As Turkey Pivots To Russia
Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman vowed Sunday that Iran will not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons."Iran won't have nuclear weapons. The State of Israel is determined not to allow nuclear weapons for Iran," Lieberman said at a conference organized by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth to celebrate 70 years of Israeli success. - Ynet
Just last month, the long-simmering Israeli-Iranian conflict came out of the shadows when Iran sent a drone across the Jordanian border into Israel, and Israel retaliated with air strikes on several targets including the Iranian drone operators at a Syrian base in Palmyra, northeast of Damascus.

The two sides appear to be on a collision course as Iran penetrates further into a hollowed-out Syria and Israel tries to frustrate that effort.
  • The current status quo, where Israel limits itself to enforcing its publicly stated red lines in Syria, is likely to continue. However, new events that change the intentions of the parties could lead to miscalculation and uncontrollable escalation.

  • Iran’s strategy since signing the 2015 nuclear agreement was to trade short-term nuclear weapons capability for regional expansion and ballistic missile build up. Iran came away from the deal with an option to pursue a nuclear weapon in the future, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps also began pursuing a pan-Shia axis throughout the Arab world.

  • Some of the questions that will determine how the Israeli-Iranian conflict unfolds: Will the Islamic Republic shift course and put a damper on its malign regional activities and in particular, its growing military program in Syria aimed at Israel? Will Israel be able to prevent the Iranian build up without sparking a war?
Read today’s guest analysis by Jonathan Paris, a London-based security and political analyst.

Compromising With Iran on International Security
By Thomas Buonomo, RealClearDefense: “It is highly improbable that Iran will compromise on demands from the U.S. and its allies that it halt the expansion of its ballistic missile capabilities or extend critical provisions of the current nuclear agreement.”
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IRAN'S SECRET QODS FORCE & HOUTHI'S STEP UP THEIR SAUDI OFFENSIVE

3/25/2018

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FOUNDATION FOR THE DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES
Michael Knights writes: To blunt this advance, the Houthis are increasingly using advanced antiarmor roadside bombs known as explosively formed penetrators (EFPs)—a technology provided by Iran via its proxy Lebanese Hezbollah. Given the preponderance of evidence on the matter, the international community urgently needs to expose this link and provide support to minimize the effectiveness of deadly EFP munitions. - Washington Institute
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WHY ABBAS NEEDS AN ISRAELI VICTORY

3/25/2018

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DANIEL PIPES
TAYLOR FORCE BECOMES LAW
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EGYPT'S PARALYSIS LINGERS

3/23/2018

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PROJECT SYNDICATE
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PAKISTAN ENGAGES KABULS WITH TALKS, US COMBATANT COMMANDER TALKS WITH TALIBAN

3/20/2018

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What Pakistan Needs from America's Afghan War Effort 
By Touqir Hussain, The National Interest: “Problems between the two countries are long-standing, and neither occupies the moral high ground in the eyes of the other: the United States regards Pakistan as a two-faced ally, while Pakistanis have long dwelled on the recurring pattern of America’s betrayal and abandonment.”
Gen. Joseph Dunford: There are signs of progress in Afghan war
(The Associated Press) In fits and starts, for nearly a decade, the U.S. has talked about and struggled to make progress on building an Afghan military that can take control of its own nation’s security and lay the groundwork for a stable government.

Mattis, Saudi leader discuss Taliban safe havens to support peace talks
(Military Times) The United States and Saudi Arabia are discussing how they could support safe havens for moderate Taliban leaders who seek to negotiate a reconciliation with the Afghan government, Pentagon spokesman Dana White said Thursday. 
 
US will have role in Afghan reconciliation with Taliban
(The Associated Press) The U.S. has a role to play in setting the conditions for members of the Taliban to lay down their weapons and move back into Afghanistan’s society, the top U.S. commander for the war said Thursday. 

The Pentagon is looking to senior leaders in the Islamic world to apply “religious pressure” to the Taliban, as part of a new strategy to bring the Afghan insurgents to the negotiation table, the top U.S. commander in the country said Tuesday. - Washington Times
U.S., PAKISTAN: Pakistan Is Feeling U.S. Pressure. Now What? 
By Daniel Markey, The Cipher Brief: “After a short trip to Pakistan last week, I return to Washington convinced that the Trump administration’s new coercive approach toward Islamabad is working, at least in the narrow sense that it has grabbed the attention of Pakistani decision-makers and forced them to take notice of U.S. demands.”

US military will not pursue Taliban into Pakistan
(Long War Journal) A Pentagon spokesman said that the US military will not conduct hot pursuit of Taliban and allied jihadist fighters from Afghanistan into Pakistan.

Pakistan is still mulling Afghanistan’s recent overtures, including an invitation that Pakistani prime minister visit Kabul — an offer that analysts see as a good sign, underscoring that dialogue between the two often uneasy neighbors is key to defeating militants on both sides of the border. - Associated Press

 Joint Chiefs chairman visits Afghanistan to review US military campaign
(The Associated Press) The top U.S. military officer visited Afghanistan on Monday to evaluate the military campaign and ensure new American advisory teams and an upgraded Afghan Air Force are on target as the next fighting season with the Taliban looms. 

 
 Nicholson: US Planning Religious, Diplomatic, Military and Social Pressure on Taliban 
(Voice of America) The top U.S. military commander in Afghanistan said a combination of religious, social, diplomatic and military pressure will be applied to the Taliban this year to force them to start negotiating for peace in the war-torn country. 
 

 Crown Prince Seeks to Solidify Saudi Arabia’s Anti-Iran Stance With U.S.
(Wall Street Journal) Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is expected to bring to Washington the brash foreign policy that has shaped Saudi Arabia’s more muscular stance in the Middle East to counter archenemy Iran. 

US strikes Shabaab south of Somalia’s capital
US forces conducted nine strikes in Somalia this year, all of which have targeted al Qaeda's affiliate in the country. 

Islamic State suicide bomber strikes near shrine in Afghan capital
The Islamic State's Khorasan branch quickly claimed responsibility for an attack near a shrine in Kabul, Afghanistan earlier today. The Sunni jihadists regularly target Shiite civilians in Afghanistan and elsewhere.
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EGYPT CONTRACTS NATURAL GAS FROM ISRAEL

3/20/2018

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Robin Mills writes: The discovery of Egypt’s giant Zohr gas field in August 2015 was heralded as the solution to the country’s energy problems. So why did Egypt cut a deal this year to import natural gas from Israel, its former enemy? - Bloomberg
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A YEMENI ENDGAME INSIGHT:  MORE BLOODLUST

3/20/2018

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Jonathan Spyer writes: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud is here to rebrand. If all goes well, his visit to the U.S. this week will wow Americans with Saudi Arabia’s new progressivism, increase U.S. investment in the Saudi economy, and align US and Saudi strategies in the Middle East. - The New Republic
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Above lazy booms of artillery shelling and howling mountain winds, a Yemeni army commander described the endgame of his country’s destructive, three-year civil war in a way that suggested a bloodier phase was yet to come. - Washington Post
Yemen situation report 
Miranda Morton, Tomas Perez, and Katherine Zimmerman | Critical Threats
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ISRAELI CONCERNS OVER SAUDI NUKES

3/20/2018

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THE CLOCK IS TICKING FOR MIDDLE EAST NUCLEAR WAR

Israel’s preference is not that the Iranian nuclear deal should be nixed but that it should be extended indefinitely, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s close ally, Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz, revealed Monday in an interview with The Jerusalem Post at his office in the capital. - Jerusalem Post

Saudi Arabia has two interests in pursuing nuclear power. The official explanation is economic: growing domestic energy consumption is cutting into the kingdom’s oil profits. But the unofficial, and perhaps more important explanation, is serious concern over Iran’s nuclear ambitions—and the long-term effects of the JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal.
 
As Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman recently told CBS’ 60 Minutes, “Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb, but without a doubt if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.”
 
Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin, former Chief of Israeli military intelligence – and one of the former Israeli air force pilots who participated in Israel’s airstrike on Iraq’s nuclear program – offers a roadmap for how the U.S. can acknowledge the Saudis’ legitimate energy needs while avoiding a nuclear arms race in the Middle East:
 
  • “Riyadh is concerned that Iran’s successful breakout to the bombwould not only pose an existential threat to the kingdom if Iran should choose to use such weapons, but more generally it would embolden Teheran to become even more subversive in the region - compounding the pre-existing challenges to the stability of the House of Saud.” 

  • “Therefore, the Saudis seek to position themselves close enough to the bomb in order to deter the Iranians from breaking out by conveying the message that Tehran will derive little if any strategic advantage from going nuclear as Riyadh will soon follow.” 

  • “Washington cannot afford to accept an unlimited Saudi civilian nuclear program. However, at the same time, Washington would be ill-advised to dismiss Riyadh’s request out of hand; doing so would run the risk of pushing the Saudi nuclear contract into the hands of less responsible actors like Russia or China. That, in turn, would deny Washington critical oversight and leverage necessary to ensure that Riyadh is abiding by its commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons.”
Read Gen. Yadlin’s column, co-authored by Ari Heistein.
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15TH ANNIVERSARY OF IRAQI INVASION:  WHAT DID WE LEARN & THE ROLE OF AUTHORITARIANISM FOR AN ISLAMIC POLITY

3/19/2018

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A dozen Iraq War myths that need to die
The War in Iraq Isn't Done. Commanders Explain Why and What's Next // Kevin Baron
Senior US and Iraq officers say the 15-year fight isn't quite finished and they need to ensure that another ISIS can't rise.
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 What Were We Doing In Iraq Anyway?
(DefenseOne) Reflections on a war gone wrong. 

Role of Authoritarianism in Fomenting Extremism in the Arab World 
By Hari Prasad, Divergent Options: “Many Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) works have focused on the role of individual and enabling factors in the rise of extremism, yet it is important to not overlook larger structural factors.  In particular, authoritarianism in the Arab world has proven to help foment conditions that can help encourage the rise of extremism, or discredit counter extremism efforts..”
A dozen Iraq War myths that need to die
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner 
Many pundits and policymakers not only continue to treat Iraq and Iraqis as a partisan football but also perpetuate false myths about the Iraq War's run-up and aftermath. Fifteen years on, Iraq has turned a corner. About 40 percent of Iraqis were born after the war and never knew Saddam Hussein. And, importantly, Iraqis across the ethnic, sectarian, and political spectrum have real say in their governance.
The War in Iraq Isn't Done. Commanders Explain Why and What's Next // Kevin Baron
After returning from a recent reporting trip to the Middle East, Defense One's executive editor tweeted: "I was in Baghdad for the 'end' of the Iraq war in 2010. I was there for the 'end' of the Iraq war in 2011. I was there for the 'end' of the Iraq war in 2018. Here's what they told me, this time...'' Read on:

BAGHDAD, Iraq — Fifteen years on, and the war in Iraq still isn’t done. But where are we? What’s left to do? And will anything be different this time around?
“I honestly don’t know,” says Col. James Kaio, the New Zealand Army officer who is in change of the U.S.-led coalitions' efforts to training Iraqi forces to fight ISIS, better known as Operation Inherent Resolve. But he was one of about a dozen senior U.S., Iraq, and coalition commanders here who gave a strong view of Iraq’s immediate security future, if perhaps less so in Iraq’s political future.

Read full article »

Monday marks 15 years since President George W. Bush announced the start of the Iraq war, followed by a ‘decapitation’ air strike on Baghdad a day later, meant to target Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.
 
The Cipher Brief asked its experts in intelligence, diplomacy and the military to assess the war’s impact.
  • Rob Richer, former chief of CIA’s clandestine operations in the Middle East and South Asia during the Iraq war: “We failed on the strategic aspect of the aftermath of the invasion. We had no substantive plan for the day after Saddam fell. We allowed Iraqi opposition figures with no real linkages to, or support from the Iraqi people, to influence our post-war decisions, with one of the most telling being the dissolution of the Iraqi military, police and security services.” 

  • Ambassador James Jeffrey, former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey: “All was not a failure on Iraq. We succeeded with much help from Iraqis and occasionally some from international community in keeping the country unified, all but ending violence by 2009 (at least until ISIS’s rise), seeing oil production rise to about half of Saudi Arabia’s—number two in OPEC and a major reason for low oil prices since 2014, creating a constitutional democratic system despite flaws that survives, and military forces that – despite their initial failure against ISIS – saved Baghdad.” 

  • Adm. (ret.) Sandy Winnefeld, former Joint Chiefs of Staff Vice Chairman: “The costs in blood and treasure, and the extended impact on the rest of the Middle East, are now a matter of record. The conflict pushed very hard against the international legal standard that demands an imminent threat when citing self- or collective self-defense. And the nature of the conflict set the U.S. military back years in maintaining its competitiveness in a potential conflict with a more capable adversary.”
Read more experts’ thoughts on the impact and success of the Iraq war, including retired Lt. Gen. Guy Swan, and CIA veterans Norman Roule, Carmen Medina and Alex Bolling.
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SAUDI PRINCE BIN SALMAN MAKES U.S. VISIT FOR 2 WEEKS

3/19/2018

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WHAT THE CROWN PRINCE WANTS:  MIDDLE EAST FORUM
WHAT SAUDI REFORM MEANS
Saudi’s Young Leader Arrives to a Washington Divided Over Yemen 
By Varsha Koduvayur & Alexandra N. Gutowski, RealClearDefense: “The crown prince has undertaken an ambitious reform agenda at home, but the war in Yemen has upset U.S.-Saudi relations at a critical juncture when Iranian aggression threatens the vital interests of both Washington and Riyadh.”

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will meet with President Donald Trump today, before embarking on a whistle-stop tour of the United States, meeting politicians, businessmen, think tankers, educators and the UN Secretary General.
 
The crown prince has a simple message for the American president, and the American people: we’re the modern Gulf ally you’ve been looking for, to offset Iran, do our part in the counterterrorist fight and invest our oil wealth in your businesses to bring you jobs.
  • “What the 32-year-old crown prince, or MBS, as he is known, hopes to get out of it is proof for conservatives back home that the pain of reform and the discomfort of modernization is worth it, as aging officials deal with the sudden retirement he thrust upon them when he replaced them with younger royals in February.” 

  • “Cementing the relationship with the Trump administration could also provide MBS cover for the expensive Saudi military intervention in the three-year-old Yemeni civil war, which has no end in sight. The two leaders will surely stand shoulder-to-shoulder, lamenting Iran’s regional meddling, and specifically blaming Iran for arming Houthi rebels and stretching out the conflict.”
Read today’s brief.
Saudi crown prince kicks off two-week tour of US 
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrives in Washington today to kick off a two-week tour of the United States. This is his first visit since becoming heir to the throne last year. The crown prince will meet with President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday. 
The trip aims to cement US support for Prince Mohammed’s strong stance against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and his punishing embargo of Qatar over the emirate’s support for Islamist groups. The Saudis also hope to negotiate a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with the US government and build support for private investment as they diversify the economy.
 Read More  ​

  • "Why Investors Should Not Fret About Saudi Arabia's Approach to Reform," Varsha Koduvayur, The National Interest
  • WINEP’s Simon Henderson: Saudi king-in-waiting comes to America
  • Former Saudi culture minister Adel Al-Toraifi on Saudis and radical Islam
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ISLAMIC CLOWNS MAKE A COMEBACK

3/17/2018

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THE IRANIANS STOKE A NUCLEAR ARMS RACE FOR THE NEAR EAST

3/17/2018

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HOW THE IRAQI'S SCREW THE AMERICANS

3/17/2018

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SILK ROAD PROMISES FOR WESTERN ASIA

3/17/2018

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https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/mar/12/after-sept-11-azerbaijan-was-among-the-first-count/
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THE AMERICAN HEGEMON AT WAR WITH 7 NATIONS

3/17/2018

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WHAT IS THE U.S. TO DO WITH A ROGUE TURKEY

3/17/2018

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THE PALESTINIAN SUCCESSION PLAN

3/17/2018

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THE MASS STARVATION OF YEMEN & THE FAILURE OF US AIR DOCTRINE TO WIN THE YEMENI CIVIL WAR

3/17/2018

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https://www.alhurra.com/a/the-limits-of-saudi-reform/424938.html
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THE US NAVY & THE ISRAELI DEFENSE FORCE MEET TO ENGAGE THE NORTH

3/17/2018

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A POPE & A GRAND IMAM MEET IN ST. MARKS

3/16/2018

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  • "A pope and a grand imam," Clifford D. May, The Washington Times
HOW SAUDI ARABIA WINS THE NEAR EAST
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HOW THE SAUDI'S WIN THE MIDDLE EAST FOR THE LONG WAR

3/16/2018

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"Saudi Arabia Can Win Islam’s War of Ideas," John Hannah, Foreign Policy
Saudis in secret talks with Houthis to end Yemen's war: report
(Al Jazeera) Saudi officials and Houthi rebels have held months of secret talks on ending Yemen's devastating three-year war, according to a news report.
Saudi Arabia and its adversaries in Yemen’s armed Houthi movement are holding secret talks to try to end a three-year-old war that has unleashed the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, diplomats and Yemeni political sources said. - Reuters
​

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis defended U.S. military support to Saudi Arabian-led coalition forces in Yemen on Thursday as he explained a personal appeal to lawmakers who are considering whether to end Washington’s involvement in the devastating conflict. - Reuters
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