A disingenuous debate about annexation
American Jews protesting the prospect of Israeli action to formalize its hold on territory aren’t defending chances for peace or a realistic plan to achieve it.
JONATHAN S. TOBIN

Netanyahu puts settlers before Israel, again
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blew up coalition talks following right-wing attacks against him for letting Blue and White control the committee that appoints Supreme Court justices.

Netanyahu Won, but Israel's Right Wing Lost by Nave Dromi
Haaretz
March 31, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60661/netanyahu-won-but-israel-right-wing-lost

Negotiations stall on Israeli unity government
 Talks between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Blue and White head Benny Gantz on an emergency government have hit an impasse over the Likud's priority of annexing the West Bank.

​What can we learn from the left's disappointment in Gantz?
 The left-wing camp is disappointed after perceiving Blue and White leader Benny Gantz as a 2020 model of late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

Israel’s Political and Constitutional Crisis with Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer 

Turkey's Syria Intervention Serves Israeli Strategic Interests
By Dmitri Shufutinsky, March 29, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkey’s invasion of Syria to protect Idlib will bog it down in a war it cannot win. At the same time, it severely weakens the Assad regime and could help oust Iran from Syria.
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Political crisis proves Israel needs constitution
 Ignoring Israel’s laws and rules and in order to avoid complying with the High Court’s directives, Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein chose to resign.

Over the past few days, the ongoing political turmoil in Israel seems to have morphed into a potential constitutional crisis (albeit for a state without a written Constitution). At the core of the issue: the ongoing conflict between Israel's High Court of Justice—its leading judicial body—and the Knesset—the country's parliament. For some deeper perspective on this issue, I recommend a 2016 essay in Mosaic, "Disorder in the Court," by Israeli intellectual Evelyn Gordon, with responses by Haviv Rettig Gur and Jeremy Rabkin. The piece takes a hard look at how judicial activism in Israel has undermined democratic self-government and public confidence in the rule of law.
Read it here now.

Gantz made a tough decision. Will he regret it?
Blue and White leader Benny Gantz slammed the door on his anti-Netanyahu partners to join a unity government with the Likud, but will he ever occupy the Prime Minister's Office?

ISRAELI POLITICS: CAN BIBI GOVERN?

ISRAELI POLITICS EXPLAINED

Israel: Maybe the Dog Will Talk
Editorial of The New York Sun | March 27, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/israel-maybe-the-dog-will-talk/91065/

"IMF Should Reject Islamic Republic’s Loan Request," Richard Goldberg and Saeed Ghasseminejad, FDD Policy Brief

• WINEP’s Farzin Nadimi: Khamenei securitizes the pandemic as the IRGC mulls regional action
  
• Israeli Opposition Splinters, Paving Way for Netanyahu to Remain Prime Minister
  

Farzin Nadimi writes: Finally, the pandemic’s serious effects inside Iran should not be regarded as evidence that the Iranian military threat has decreased. Washington should continue taking the IRGC threat to its regional military presence seriously, deploying a viable air and missile defense capability in Iraq and perhaps even Afghanistan in order to deter any attacks. And while it cannot maintain a two-carrier force posture in the region indefinitely, it still needs to maintain a demonstrated qualitative and quantitative advantage in Iran’s neighborhood—and, perhaps more important, credibility that it will respond at the right time and place. – Washington Institute 
​
Anthony H. Cordesman writes: It should be stressed that all of the current trends in both Iran’s missile forces and in the speculation regarding its efforts to develop and deploy weapons of mass destruction continue to assume that the Iranian regime will give priority to military forces over civil needs in spite of the steady hardening of U.S. sanctions and the growing impact of the Coronavirus. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

Ali Bakeer writes: As the Turkish defense sector grows though, it will need to overcome significant internal challenges to sustain its momentum in the long run, such as halting brain drain, securing large-scale funding, accessing critical markets, and avoiding potential negative knock-on effects from Turkey’s foreign policy endeavors that might deprive it of advanced technology and important customers. The challenges are substantial, but as the success of the Syrian drone campaign has made clear, Turkey’s defense industry has undoubtedly made significant progress.  – Middle East Institute

INSS' Amos Yadlin and Ari Heistein: Calls to reduce pressure on Iran’s regime are reckless and misguided

JPost’s Seth J.Frantzman: The PMU is getting more aggressive in Iraq

The Evolution Of Arab Popular Opinion Toward Iran, And Iranian Self-Perceptions
by Karim Sadjadpour via The Caravan
The Middle East’s conflicts and autocracies—hostile to independent researchers and pollsters—make it one of the most challenging regions of the world to accurately assess public opinion. The competing popular demonstrations in the region both before and after the killing of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani illustrates the confusion.

​Zeinab Soleimani: Islam's Female Avenger
By Dr. Edy Cohen, March 10, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The jihad against America and the West has a new, more feminine face after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani: his daughter Zeinab, who has vowed revenge.
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After Soleimani, Iran Sends Shamkhani to Iraq to Take Control by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
March 10, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60554/iran-sends-shamkhani-to-iraq-to-take-control

US deploys missile defenses to Iraq after attacks from Iran 
The United States is deploying missile defenses to Iraq in the wake of attacks in January from Iran, Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, head of US forces in the Middle East, said Tuesday. “[The Pentagon is] in the process of bringing air defense systems, ballistic missile defense systems, into Iraq in particular, to protect ourselves against another potential Iranian attack,” McKenzie said.
Iran retaliated for the Jan. 3 assassination of Commander Qasem Soleimani by firing missiles at Iraqi bases hosting US troops, causing traumatic brain injuries to more than 100 service members. Last month, Iran inaugurated a new missile that is lighter and has a longer range than the ones used in those attacks. Meanwhile, the US military, after concluding that the spike in tensions with Iran has begun to subside, has withdrawn about 1,000 combat troops deployed to Kuwait days after the Soleimani strike, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Read More  
newsweek.co

 Saudi Arabia moves to show king still in charge after palace 'coup' averted 
Saudi state media on Sunday released photographs of King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud performing his royal duties, shrugging off speculation that he is in poor health and could soon step down. The king is shown attending the swearing-in ceremony of new ambassadors to Ukraine and Uruguay. Saudi authorities released the images after detaining three princes on Friday for allegedly plotting a coup, raising speculation that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman could accede to the throne sooner than expected. Masked guards reportedly arrested the king’s younger brother Prince Ahmed and his nephew Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, both of whom were potential contenders for the throne. Prince Nayef's younger brother Prince Nawaf bin Nayef was also detained.
Read More  
al-monitor.com

Benny Gantz and the pyromaniacal cockpit

A minority government will unravel Blue and White

The High Court is making society suffer  ​

Blue and White's Plan B will backfire

THE STATE OF PLAY IN ISRAELI POLITICS AFTER THE ELECTION

History Won't Wait For Gantz To Bow To Israel's Voters
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | March 20, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/history-wont-wait-for-gantz-to-bow-to-israels/91056/

Israel faces showdown over Knesset reopening 
Israel faces a political showdown over the functioning of the Knesset as speaker Yuli Edelstein of the ruling Likud party tries to shut down parliament, citing coronavirus concerns, while rival parties cry foul. The main opposition Blue and White party has accused Edelstein of trying to prevent the Knesset from forming new committees following this month's general elections, in order to block legal action against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following his indictment on corruption charges. Several parties are seeking to replace Edelstein while pushing bills that would prevent an indicted politician from leading the government. Israel's High Court this week ordered that Knesset committees be formed by March 23.

The showdown comes as negotiations continue over the formation of Israel's next government. Blue and White leader Benny Gantz has 24 more days to try to cobble together a ruling coalition before his mandate expires and another political leader is given the chance. Gantz has the support of a bare majority of 61 Knesset members for the task, but two members of his own party refuse to back any government supported by the Joint List of major Arab Israeli parties, making the task appear insurmountable. Meanwhile, negotiations continue between Blue and White and the Likud on a possible unity government in which Gantz and Netanyahu would rotate as head of government.

The Struggle for Israel's Jewish Soul
By Prof. Efraim Karsh and Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, March 16, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The possibility of an Israeli minority government that relies on the Joint Arab List underscores the clear and present danger of accommodating political parties and movements that reject the existence of the Jewish state and propagate Israel’s transformation into a Palestinian Arab (Muslim) state.
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 Netanyahu rival gets first shot at forming next government 
Israeli President Reuven Rivlin today officially tasked Benny Gantz, the leader of the Blue and White party, with trying to form the next government. The move comes after Gantz picked up endorsements from a diverse coalition including the secular nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party of former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, the Joint List of major Arab-Israeli parties and six out of seven members of the center-left Labor-Gesher-Meretz party. Gantz now has one month to try to assemble a governing coalition.

Adding to the political uncertainty, Rivlin summoned Gantz and Netanyahu Sunday evening for an “urgent conversation” regarding the “possibility of forming a government immediately,” according to a statement from the president's residence. Netanyahu has been calling for Blue and White to join a unity government with his Likud party to combat the spread of the coronavirus. Separately, the government on Sunday approved short-term mass surveillance of Israelis’ phones to help track the interactions of people diagnosed with the virus. The measure, which has raised privacy concerns, requires final approval from the Knesset’s subcommittee on clandestine services.
Read More  
timesofisrael.com

Netanyahu goes on trial 

After an unprecedented third election in less than 12 months, Israel's political system experiences another seismic shock this coming week as a sitting prime minister goes on trial for the first time in the country's history. Benjamin Netanyahu is set to appear Tuesday in Jerusalem District Court for the start of his trial in three separate criminal cases in which he is accused of exchanging political favors for personal gain. Last week, the prime minister's defense team asked for a 45-day delay, arguing that they did not receive all the documents they are entitled to from the prosecution. But the court rejected the request and said the trial will go ahead as planned, with Netanyahu in person expected to attend.

The trial comes as Israel struggles to form a government following March 2 elections that once again resulted in a deadlock between Netanyahu's coalition of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties and a center-left bloc dominated by the Blue and White party of Benny Gantz. President Reuven Rivlin is expected to begin consultations on Sunday with party leaders to decide who should get the first stab at trying to cobble together a governing coalition. Netanyahu initially proclaimed victory after his coalition won 58 seats — three shy of the 61 needed for a majority — but since then Gantz has worked to assemble a minority government supported on the outside by the Arab Joint List.
​
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus has added another layer of uncertainty to the mix. With the number of cases now topping 100 and the government banning large gatherings and closing schools for a month, Netanyahu on Thursday called for the formation of a short-term national unity government to combat the epidemic. Such a government, Netanyahu said, “would be an emergency government for a limited time, and we will fight together to save the lives of tens of thousands of citizens.”

UNITY GOVERNMENT POSSIBLE?

Israel’s Gantz ready to do whatever it takes to topple Netanyahu
 Blue and White leader Benny Gantz is now ready to do whatever it takes to topple Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including going back on his promise not to establish a government backed by the Arab Joint List.

Israel’s right engaged in wild anti-Arab incitement
 Blue and White leader Benny Gantz’s attempts to establish a minority government with the support of the Arab Joint List is leading right-wing ministers to intensify their inciteful tone against Arab legislators.

​Is Israel's 'Sovereignty Road' project step toward annexation?
 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s interim government is busily advancing various annexation moves with the excuse of addressing the settlers’ living conditions

A Gantz-led government, recipe for Jewish-Arab reconciliation?
 Partnership with Arab and Muslim parties is not a "problem," but an opportunity to heal Israeli society and advance Jewish-Muslim reconciliation.

China's New Silk Road Strategy and the Middle East
By Dr. Mordechai Chaziza, March 8, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In recent years, the People’s Republic of China has significantly increased its economic and diplomatic engagement with the Middle East. Most of Beijing’s investment in the region focuses on energy, infrastructure construction, nuclear power, new energy sources, agriculture, and finance. These investments serve not only China’s interests but also those of Middle Eastern countries hoping to boost their economies as a means of strengthening social stability.
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​Does Jewish-Arab partnership to form government stand a chance in Israel?
 The Likud is continuing its campaign of incitement against Arab party representatives to head off their helping form a minority government led by Blue and White.

Does Israel's Gantz stand a chance at establishing a government?
The chances of Blue and White leader Benny Gantz establishing a minority government with Avigdor Liberman and the support of the Arab Joint List are not high, yet the risks he is taking are huge.

Protesters Push Arab Militaries Off Their Pedestal
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, March 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A decade of anti-government protests in the Arab world have thrown popular trust in the military into the garbage bin and undermined the military’s position as one of the most trusted institutions.
Continue to full article ->

Israel tries (again) to form a government 

Political horse-trading begins in earnest in the next few days as Israelis try once again to cobble together a government and avoid a fourth election in a row. President Reuven Rivlin is expected to open talks with party leaders as early as Sunday on who should get the first shot at trying to assemble a ruling coalition after two previous failed attempts. The central election committee has until Tuesday to submit final election results, after which talks begin in earnest.
With Benjamin Netanyahu’s alliance of right-wing and religious parties winning 58 Knesset seats in Monday’s election – three short of an outright majority – the prime minister is the favorite. Netanyahu has already started talks with his allies to ensure that he is the nominee. Talks this time are complicated by Netanyahu’s indictment on corruption charges. His trial is scheduled to begin March 17, which is also the deadline for Rivlin to assign the task of forming a government to one of the candidates. Netanyahu’s chief rival, Benny Gantz, refuses to back a unity government led by Netanyahu and is pushing legislation to bar an indicted politician from serving as head of government. The bill’s unexpected endorsement by Avigdor Liberman, the head of the nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party, has drastically increased the bill’s chances.

But Gantz faces his own set of obstacles. His Blue and White party came in second behind Netanyahu’s Likud, which it had bested in the previous elections in September. Israel’s alliance of major Arab parties, the Arab Joint List, has said it won’t endorse Gantz unless he stands against annexation of the Jordan Valley and reverses course on his refusal to include the Arab alliance in his coalition. Liberman for his part insists he will not sit in a government that is either headed by Netanyahu or backed by the Arab Joint List.

Israel's election committee has published the results of Monday's election showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc with 58 seats — three short of the parliamentary majority needed to form a government.
Why it matters: Worse still for Netanyahu, particularly in the wake of what looked like a remarkable victory, a majority might now be uniting behind an effort to effectively end his political career.
Breaking it down: Netanyahu's Likud Party won the most seats in Monday's election, with 36. Allied right-wing parties won an additional 22.

• The Blue and White party, led by Netanyahu's centrist rival Benny Gantz, won 33 seats. The liberal Labor Party won 7.
• The Joint List of predominantly Arab parties had its best-ever showing, winning 15 seats.
• A nationalist party led by former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman won 7.

The big picture: Israeli politics have been deadlocked for a year, with Netanyahu and Gantz both failing to form majority governments after two previous elections.
Driving the news: This time could be different. Lieberman now says he will recommend Gantz to form the next government.

• If the Joint List does the same, that will put 62 seats behind Gantz — at least temporarily — and make it likely that President Reuven Rivlin will offer him a mandate to form a government.
• Crucially, Gantz would control the parliamentary agenda during that process.

Between the lines: That could leave Netanyahu powerless to stop a bill that would prevent anyone under criminal indictment from forming a government.

• His corruption trial begins March 17.

Read the full story

A Shia 'Awakening'?
by Nibras Kazimi via The Caravan
The proponents of America’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran have argued that the four-month-long anti-status quo protests that have wracked Iraq, Lebanon and Iran are transnational in character and seek to limit or end the influence of Iran’s current leadership both regionally and internally. 
​
The Shia Vs. The "Shia Crescent"
by Hanin Ghaddar via The Caravan
On February 15, 2020, Hezbollah organized a ceremony to unveil a statue of Qassem Soleimani in the Lebanese town of Maroun al-Ras, roughly half a mile from the border with Israel. The statue shows Soleimani with his arm stretched out in front of him, pointing toward Israel. 

The 100th Anniversary of the Battle of Tel Hai… and the Election Results
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, March 5, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: At the hundredth anniversary of the Battle of Tel Hai (which occurred on March 1, 1920), it is instructive to recall the heated debate that preceded it among the Yishuv leadership concerning the question of abandoning the site. This debate sheds light on the decline of the Zionist left in general and the results of the latest Israeli elections in particular.
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JUDITH MILLER
Bibi’s Next Act
Benjamin Netanyahu is poised to extend his reign as Israel's longest-serving prime minister.

Israel's New Diplomatic Moment by Jonathan Spyer
The Wall Street Journal
March 3, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60527/israel-new-diplomatic-moment

The Mind Is A Map-Maker
by Charles Hill via The Caravan
A map of the Middle East after the World War I collapse of the Ottoman Empire and Caliphate shows no state boundaries, only lines of control by European powers over the territories vacated by “The Sublime Porte” -- the Islamic hegemon in Istanbul.

Israel vs. Hezbollah: The Third Lebanon War
By Dr. Ehud Eilam, March 9, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Ever since the 2006 war, Israel has preferred to contain Hezbollah rather than fight it directly. So determined was Israel to avoid going to war with the terrorist group that it tolerated its significant military buildup. Since 2012, however, the IAF has carried out hundreds of sorties inside Syria aimed at stopping the delivery of advanced weapons to Hezbollah. Israel can continue to delay the arming of Hezbollah, but it has already become quite strong, and a war could occur even if neither side wants it.
Continue to full article ->

​Why Otzmah Yehudit flamed out in Israeli elections
 The decline in support for Otzmah Yehudit, which once again failed to pass the vote threshold to enter the Knesset, was especially notable in the settlements.

​Does Jewish-Arab partnership to form government stand a chance in Israel?
 The Likud is continuing its campaign of incitement against Arab party representatives to head off their helping form a minority government led by Blue and White.

UAE shows path for peaceful nuclear development
Fuel assemblies have been loaded into the first of four UAE nuclear power plants following the country's yearslong effort to develop major national and international support for nuclear energy.

Pakistan fears Afghan peace failure could bring violence its way

Game of power politics far from over in Pakistan
Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman, the leader of Pakistan’s Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam Fazal, has failed to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan despite being backed by a faction within the military establishment. But in doing so he has strengthened the hands of the main opposition parties Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and Pakistan Peoples Party, reports Imad Zafar.

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/03/taliban-religious-decree-calls-for-its-emir-to-rule-islamic-government-in-afghanistan.php

How Can Negotiations Bring Wars to an End? by Patrick S. Roberts and Ariel I. Ahram

 Al Jazeera NPR

Analysis: Taliban leader declares victory after U.S. agrees to withdrawal deal

U.S. military perplexed by Taliban living up to letter of agreement

For peace in Afghanistan, Pakistan is the key
The chasm between illusion and reality in politics remains perennial. Wars seldom end according to the script of peace agreements. The fall of Saigon in April, 1975, ending the Vietnam War, with defeated Americans hastily retreating in helicopters from the rooftop of their embassy, was not anticipated in the Paris Peace Accords of January 1973 that were painstakingly negotiated by Henry Kissinger and North Vietnamese politburo member Le Duc Tho. Read Mor

How Can Negotiations Bring Wars to an End?
By Patrick S. Roberts & Ariel I. Ahram, War on the Rocks: “The peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban raises a lot of questions. The most important question is this — what took so long?"

The U.S. Wants Peace. The Taliban Wants an Emirate.
By Anchal Vohra, Foreign Policy: "At the pyramid-shaped seaside luxury hotel in Doha where the United States and the Taliban signed their long-awaited agreement, the 100 or so black turbans in attendance occasionally fluttered in the wind. The bearded Taliban leaders nonetheless had cheerful looks on their faces. For them, the Americans' agreement to leave Afghanistan, even without any commitment to a cease-fire, was a declaration of victory for their side."

Breaking: CNN's Barbara Starr tweeting this morning: "Two U.S. service members were killed by enemy forces while advising and accompanying Iraqi Security Forces during a mission to eliminate an ISIS terrorist stronghold in a mountainous area of north central Iraq" on Mar 8.Names w/held pending family notification. Twitter

Afghanistan Ready to Attack Taliban if Violence Continues.  Afghanistan’s minister of defense on Sunday announced that, if the Taliban does not cease attacks by the end of the week, they would switch from “defense mode” to attacking the militant group.  “Afghan forces will remain in defense mode until the end of this week under the guidance of President Ashraf Ghani because of the peace agreement, but if the Taliban do not stop their attacks by the end of the week, our troops will target the enemy everywhere,” the minister stated.  The Taliban announced earlier this month that they were resuming attacks on Afghan forces.  Reuters  U.S. and World News Report

Last week, the United States and Taliban signed an agreement to end violence in Afghanistan. Even though violence in Afghanistan did not come to a halt, the agreement follows the same model as last fall’s abandonment of the Syrian Kurds. In a Washington Examiner op-ed, Michael Rubin notes that as Trump’s first term comes to a close, there is one consistency to his foreign policy vision: US allies do not matter. Ending “endless wars” may seem like a compelling, populist slogan, but the agreement signed in Doha no more ends the Afghanistan war than President Trump’s flurry of tweets last autumn ended the Syrian conflict. Read it here.

Mehdi Khalaji writes: Yet even if the regime founders, the damage it has done to Iranian society leaves little hope for a smooth, speedy transition to a democratic, relatively U.S.-friendly state in the near term. […]In all likelihood, then, only a small subset of actors would be willing and able to fill the vacuum that follows the regime’s ultimate collapse—namely, existing factions that already hold the keys to Iran’s military arsenal and prisons. Such a replacement government would hardly choose to denounce the police state from which it was birthed, nor the defiant anti-Western animosity that has been Khamenei’s calling card. – Washington Institute ​

Neville Teller writes: Three basic factors underlie Turkey’s stance in the confused military situation in northwest Syria. The first is that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a Sunni Muslim while Syria’s President Bashar Assad adheres to the Shia branch of Islam. […]This is why Erdogan has been supporting Syria’s anti-government forces, and explains how the opposition have recently brought Assad’s apparently inexorable advance into Idlib Province to a shuddering halt. – Jerusalem Post

Shahla Al-Kli writes: Iraq is likely to remain challenged throughout much of 2020 by a crisis pitting a flagging political establishment against a nascent popular movement. […]Over the next few years, Iraq’s traditional leadership will likely go into “survival mode,” guarding the status quo or making ineffective, incremental changes until the popular protest movement develops more mature leadership and political conduct. Once that happens, the changes will no longer be gradual, but swift and radical. – Middle East Institute ​