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GLOBAL strike MEDIA
u.s. central command
centcom & The long war

isis:  hit badly & obama's red lines 

4/27/2016

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The Islamic State has experienced severe new constraints on recruitment and financing in recent months, according to new figures released by the U.S. military. The flow of foreign fighters to join the group in Syria has fallen precipitously -- by 90 percent over the past year -- the deputy commander for operations and intelligence, Maj. Gen. Peter E. Gersten, said yesterday. The Islamic State is estimated to receive 200 new foreign recruits a month, from 2,000 a month this time last year. Additionally, Gersten noted, U.S. airstrikes have destroyed between $500 and $800 million of the Islamic State’s cash reserves by striking stockpiles. That has placed financial strain on the group and defectors from the group say fighters have had their salaries halved or are no longer being paid.

In addition to the new deployment of 250 Special Forces troops to Syria, to join 50 already on the ground, the United States will also send mobile rocket-launching vehicles to the Turkish border. The High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) will also be sent to and used in Iraq to assist in military operations near Mosul.
“Syria’s Toxic War: Chemical Weapons Are Undermining Deterrence and Nonproliferation” (Rebecca Hersman, War on the Rocks)

“Efforts have been underway to attribute these attacks and ensure better accountability, but the slow pace and lack of international attention has does little to spur on the process. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and the United Nations established a one-year Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM) to identify actors perpetrating, organizing, or sponsoring the use of chemical weapons in Syria. The JIM has reviewed data from its initial fact-finding mission and identified seven potential cases for further investigation. The team will split into two groups later this month. Security permitting, they will conduct field visits to Syria. On March 9, 2016, the United States conducted airstrikes against targets associated with ISIL’s chemical weapons program based on intelligence and information from a captured ISIL operative who was reportedly a key player in the group’s chemical weapons program. These are major steps, but insufficient in stopping the continued use of chemical weapons. With access and support, the JIM can make vital steps toward attribution and accountability, and ultimately toward justice. If the JIM can gain access to patients, eyewitnesses, environmental and biological samples, and munition remnants, then many questions can be answered. This is a relatively small but essential step if we are to have any hope of preventing the reemergence of chemical weapons as routine tools of warfare. The JIM cannot succeed without the vocal support, assistance, and participation -- indeed outrage -- of the security and humanitarian communities. But many challenges remain.”
The names of dozens of U.S. government employees were reportedly circulated Sunday among Islamic State supporters when a "hit list" containing State Department and Homeland Security personnel was posted in a social networking channel geared towards sympathizers of the terror group. – Washington Times
 
The House sent legislation to President Obama’s desk on Tuesday that would help prevent the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from profiting from damaged or stolen cultural artifacts. – The Hill
 
The U.S. has adopted an Israeli tactic called a "knock operation," or "roof knocking," before airstrikes in the overall effort to limit civilian casualties in the campaign against ISIS, a U.S. military planner for Iraq and Syria said Tuesday. – Military.com
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russia delays s300 to iran

4/26/2016

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[T]he delay in implementation of the [S-300] deal also points to the limitations of a relationship that is forged from a convergence of interests rather than a shared worldview, with Iran's leadership divided over ideology and Russia showing signs of reluctance to let the alliance develop much more, according to diplomats, officials and analysts interviewed by Reuters. - Reuters
Alexander Fomin, head of Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, offered some hints about Russia's arms trade with Iran, Tass news agency reports. Fomin said Russia is currently talking to Iran about deals to supply it with weapons permitted under the United Nations sanctions, a spectrum which includes small arms, non-lethal equipment and electronic warfare systems. Fomin also said that deliveries of the S-300 air defense systems to Iran are proceeding according to schedule. In a separate Tass piece, Fomin ruled out the possibility of S-300 sales to Syria.
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pakistan + china = nukes

4/26/2016

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Bloomberg
The foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan on Tuesday held a brief bilateral meeting on the sidelines of a regional gathering here, a noteworthy development in its own right, and later put out separate statements saying they had discussed several hot-button issues. – New York Times
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saudi privatization plans

4/26/2016

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Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the ambitious, impatient 30-year-old grandson of King Salman, last week was the public face for the launch of "Saudi Vision 2030," a long-term blueprint designed to steer the kingdom's economy through a brave new world of falling oil prices and rising competition. The plan marked just the latest move by the prince to put his stamp on the country's economic, diplomatic and strategic agenda, emerging as the royal to watch as the Saudi ruling family tries to deal with a host of domestic and international challenges, including a newly empowered Iran and a newly skeptical Washington. – Washington Times
 
A three-day strike by oil workers in Kuwait last month over pay reforms shows the government faces considerable opposition as it prepares to push through painful and controversial cuts to longstanding welfare benefits. - Reuters
 
The Yemeni government suspended direct peace talks to end the country's civil war on Sunday after the Houthi movement and its armed allies seized a military base north of the capital Sanaa, two members of the official delegation to the talks said. - Reuters
 
Michael Morell writes: [T]he implications of the Emirati operation are significant. It is the kind of military capability and willingness to act against terrorists that should become a model for other countries in the region. It is the kind of action that the United States should support—both with tangible assistance and public statements. - Politico
After weeks of hinting, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced the kingdom’s expansive economic reform program yesterday, which has been dubbed “Vision 2030.” Though Saudi Arabia still derives more than 90 percent of its budget from oil and natural gas sales, bin Salman said that the plan could end Saudi reliance on oil income within four years. The plan also calls for developing the Saudi private sector, growing it from 40 to 60 percent of GDP over the next 14 years, as well as reducing unemployment and increasing women’s employment.

Much of the plan hinges on privatizing government assets, including education, healthcare, and most importantly Saudi Aramco, the national oil company. Under the plan, Aramco will become a holding company listing 5 percent of the company on stock exchanges in Riyadh and one other city, possibly New York. According to bin Salman, Aramco is worth between $2 and $3 billion, which could bring Riyadh up to $150 billion in an initial public offering. “Mohammed bin Salman wants to light a fire under a system that is accustomed to moving at a glacial pace. His thinking is sound. His timeframe less so,” one expert told the Financial Times in response to the plan.
“Updating U.S. Saudi Ties to Reflect the New Realities of Today’s Middle East” (Brian Katulis, Rudy deLeon, Peter Juul, Mokhtar Awad, and John Craig, Center for American Progress)

“If fully implemented, these reforms would alter the basic terms of the Saudi social contract and could lead to wider progressive social change in the Kingdom. ‘What is missing from the current Saudi economy,’ one Saudi official said, ‘is the idea of what Saudis can do for their country and their economy.’ The partial privatization of Saudi Aramco, for instance, would require an unprecedented level of transparency for the Kingdom and more predictable business laws and regulations. A more open and competitive Saudi economy could make it difficult to sustain gender-based restrictions that currently prevent Saudi women from seeking work and maintaining employment. Although it is far from guaranteed that economic reform will lead to political and social change, support for the new Saudi leadership’s economic reform program should be a top priority for the next administration -- especially in the context of a new bilateral strategic dialogue with Riyadh. American policymakers should encourage their Saudi counterparts to couple their economic reforms with progressive political and social change by reminding them that social progress in Saudi Arabia will make the Kingdom more attractive to American businesses and more conducive to sustainable economic growth.”
The ambitious young prince who oversees the economy of Saudi Arabia rolled out a grand vision for the future of the kingdom on Monday that aspires to reduce its dependence on oil, stimulate the private sector and reduce government subsidies — all while ensuring rising living standards for Saudi citizens. – New York Times
The world's third largest military spender, Saudi Arabia, is to direct 50 percent of its military purchases toward local industries. – Defense News
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islamabad & new delhi hold talks. . . again

4/26/2016

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India, Pakistan, foreign secretaries hold talks

Foreign secretary of India, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and his Pakistani counterpart Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhry held talks on Tuesday, ahead of the ministerial meeting of the Heart of Asia Istanbul Process in New Delhi, that will discuss the security situation and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan (HT, PTI). This is the first meeting between senior diplomats of India and Pakistan since the January attack on an Indian air base in Pathankot. The delegations are reported to have discussed ways to move forward the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue (CBD) that has been frozen since the attack. The statement by the Pakistani High Commission on the occasion said “All outstanding issues, including the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, were discussed.” This is also the first formal meeting between Jaishankar and Chaudhry after the announcement of CBD by the foreign ministers in Islamabad last December.
Pakistani foreign office responds to statements by Afghan president

Pakistan’s Foreign Office said on Tuesday that Pakistan is not solely responsible for bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table (Dawn). FO spokesman Nafees Zakaria stated that Pakistan condemns all forms of terrorism and faces violent extremism within its own borders. Zakaria placed responsibility on the entire quadrilateral group, which includes the United States, China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, to bring peace to Afghanistan. This statement follows a speech given by Afghan president Ashraf Ghani on Monday threatening to make a formal complaint to the United Nations if Pakistan refuses to take military action against the Taliban. Following the FO spokesman’s statements, reports surfaced that an Afghan Taliban delegation is in Pakistan to negotiate.
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egypt:  unrest, instablity & insurgency

4/25/2016

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Since Egypt’s 1952 revolution, when a group of army officers overthrew the monarchy, the public education system has been an extension of the government. Textbooks and curriculums offered pro-government narratives, conveniently omitting facts or tweaking the truth. But now, the politicization in the schools has reached new heights, marked by efforts to erase or play down opponents’ contributions to history. – Washington Post
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kabul asks islamabad to hit taliban & peace talks

4/25/2016

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NYT
Afghan Taliban delegation denies being in Pakistan for peace talks

The Qatar-based political office of Afghanistan’s Taliban on Wednesday denied reports that a Taliban delegation is in Pakistan to discuss joining peace talks with the Afghan government (RFE/RL). Mohammad Naeem, a spokesman for the Taliban’s political office, told Voice of America on Wednesday that the delegation traveled from Qatar to Karachi, Pakistan to discuss “close relations, long border, and commercial transactions” between Pakistan and the Taliban (VOA). Naeem reiterated that the issue of negotiations with the Afghan government is not on the agenda for the delegation.

This statement conflicts with remarks made to AFP by an unnamed Pakistan-based Afghan Taliban source who asserted on Wednesday that “a three-member Taliban negotiating team was in Karachi on April 25 and would soon begin initial contacts with Pakistani and Afghan officials" (Press TV). Part of the dialogue concerned “ways and means to bring peace to Afghanistan,” according to AFP’s Taliban source.

Russia interested in joining Afghan peace negotiations

Russia is interested in facilitating peace negotiations in Afghanistan alongside the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) of Afghanistan, Pakistan, the United States, and China, however, not as a part of the QCG (NYT). On Wednesday, Zamir Kabulov, a Russian envoy to Afghanistan, was cited by Interfax news agency as saying that Russia considers the current format of talks inefficient. While Russia does not plan to join, according to Kabulov, Moscow is interested in creating a new format.

After talks between Uzbek President Islam Karimov and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, Karimov asserted Russia’s importance to Afghan peace talks (NYT). "Russia has and always had its vital interests in this region," he said after talks with Putin in Moscow. "We believe that attempts to resolve this (Afghan) issue without Russia are unreasoned and precipitous."
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Israeli rubin center:  Israeli policy on syria 

4/24/2016

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Rubin Center for International Affairs
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dear saudi arabia. . . 

4/24/2016

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​Past is prologue? Saudi Arabia’s clumsy oil diplomacy” (Suzanne Maloney, Markaz)

“Even by the standards of their well-established enmity, the past week has been an especially sour one between Tehran and Riyadh. The Istanbul summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) ended in recriminations and resentment after the Saudis engineered a final statement that criticized Tehran. A Doha meeting of major oil producers failed to produce agreement on a Saudi proposed output freeze because of Tehran’s refusal to cooperate. And quiet talks over the annual pilgrimage to Mecca -- a traditional source of strife between the two theocratic states that was further complicated by their January rupture in diplomatic relations -- have just collapsed. The handling of these three encounters among wary adversaries underscores trends already evident in Saudi foreign policy: the increasing centrality of Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s deputy crown prince and defense minister, in shaping Saudi strategy, and the audacity -- even incaution -- with which he approaches the strategic schism between the kingdom and Iran.”
AEI
President Obama and King Salman of Saudi Arabia spent more than two hours in a closed-door meeting that American officials said was cordial but underscored deep differences with the kingdom over Iran, human rights and the best way to fight terror. – New York Times
 
Eli Lake writes: This is the backdrop of Obama's visit Wednesday to Riyadh. But the U.S.-Saudi relationship only appears to be on the rocks. Indeed, despite harsh words about how Saudi Arabia is politically organized and how the Iran agreement enhances its security, the president is doubling down on a partnership that has endured since the 1930s. He has deepened military and intelligence ties with the kingdom since he came into office in 2009. – Bloomberg View
 
Arthur Herman writes: Obama’s real Saudi problem is himself. By stiff-arming allies Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel while trying to embrace their arch-foe Iran as well as the Muslim Brotherhood, he has turned the Middle East inside out — while also devastating America’s oil and gas patch, the one bright spot on this administration’s dismal economic record. – National Review Online
Yemeni troops in armored vehicles and backed by airstrikes advanced toward this city of 500,000 people on Sunday, intending to capture it from militants with Al Qaeda who had controlled the major stronghold for more than a year. – New York Times
 
President Obama’s chilly reception in Saudi Arabia this week was the culmination of long lingering tension between the two allies that bubbled to the surface over the course of the last year and a half. –The Hill
 
Economic growth in Gulf states is forecast to slow to 1.8 per cent this year as the oil-dependent region cuts spending to battle fiscal deficits reaching 11.6 per cent of gross domestic product. –Financial Times
 
Brian Katulis writes: The best course for the U.S.? Using its multiple points of leverage with Saudi Arabia to encourage it to take constructive, forward-looking steps at home and abroad. – WSJ’s Think Tank
Yemeni security and tribal officials say a suspected U.S. drone strike killed three prominent al-Qaida leaders overnight in a southern coastal town. – Associated Press
 
Reforms promised by a young Saudi prince are couched in references to the kingdom's Islamic tradition but include ideas likely to upset some conservatives, risking future ruptures over the direction of society. - Reuters
 
Editorial: After a summit with Persian Gulf rulers last week, President Obama said his aim was to “make sure that . . . we share a broad common vision.” Presumably that endeavor, and the defense of the Gulf states by the U.S. military, is not consistent with the abduction, torture and trial on trumped-up charges of U.S. citizens. So we’re hoping the president took the time to discuss the case of Kamal and Mohamed Eldarat when he met with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, on the summit’s sidelines. – Washington Post
 
Patrick Megahan writes: Ultimately, the Obama administration will find that the Saudis and their Islamic coalition are not ready to meet the region’s security challenges. With an over-reliance on high-end military hardware – and not on practical, real-world training – the Gulf states will be unlikely to provide anything more than the few airstrikes they have already contributed. It is an unfortunate reminder of why the responsibility for regional security so often falls to the United States. – Military Edge
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max boot on "The Long War"

4/24/2016

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Max Boot writes: Unless the United States can do more to enhance the overall effectiveness of its allies in the war on terror, it will be hardpressed to win lasting victories. But that would require devoting more resources to nation-building, a term that is anathema in Washington—decried in equal measure by Barack Obama and Ted Cruz. – The Weekly Standard
U.S. Policy:  The Long War, Analysis
Editorial: [N]o one in Europe appears ready to take the steps that would do most to solve the problem: ending the assaults on civilians by the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, and helping a new, internationally backed Libyan government establish its authority. The Syrian mess is tacitly delegated to the Obama administration, which continues to insist on a failing strategy of leverage-free diplomacy. The result will be more desperate asylum-seekers’ journeys, and more tragedy. – Washington Post
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a failing intifada?  Prospectus

4/24/2016

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Sometimes called the Third Intifada, the current violence has not been as spectacular as Palestinian uprisings in the late 1980s and mid-2000s. But the heavy participation of young people over the objections of older Palestinians, including Palestinian Authority leaders who are ostensibly trying to reach a long-sought peace deal with Israeli leaders, is a dynamic that illustrates how deep-seated rage and frustration have taken hold of a rising generation of Palestinians — to the concern of their parents. – Washington Times
The Peace Process & Palestinian Hatred, Gatestone Institute
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the state of iraqi political economy

4/24/2016

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President Obama said Thursday that he is “concerned” about whether Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi can hold onto power, and he urged America’s Arab allies in the Persian Gulf to bolster Sunni support for the beleaguered Iraqi leader. – Washington Post
 
The troubles at this training base reflect broader difficulties in building an Iraqi ground force capable of pushing entrenched Islamic State fighters out of Mosul, the militants' self-declared capital in Iraq, a priority for the White House and Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi's government. – Los Angeles Times
 
Ensuring that a cohesive, well-equipped Iraqi force advances into Mosul is at the core of the renewed U.S. mission in Iraq, as military leaders seek to make up for flaws exposed in the army’s partial collapse in the same city in 2014. – Washington Post's Checkpoint
A growing number of critics are warning that American-backed military victories need to be backed up with political reconciliation between Sunni and Shiite Arabs, something Iran is working against, and with determined efforts to rebuild cities so that civilians can return. In Anbar, they note, the situation is bleak: Shiite militias have worsened sectarian animosities, and hundreds of thousands of civilians have been unable to return home. – New York Times
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michael hayden:  how to win the war on terror, first stop empty washington

4/20/2016

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AEI:  Michael Hayden's Book Review 
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the syrian civil war

4/20/2016

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Under my Umbrella: The No-Fly Zone Fallacy” (Lionel Beehner, War on the Rocks) Free Subscript.

“Let’s face facts: The Syrian civil war is not going to burn itself out, barring some kind of greater military intervention or outright victory by Assad’s forces. Don’t listen to armchair analysts predicting a radical redrawing of borders, or the deep-sixing of Sykes-Picot. Borders, especially the haphazardly drawn ones in the Middle East, are stickier than we tend to presume. Yet, no-fly zones are not the antidote, whether to the security or the humanitarian problem we face in Syria. They neither resolve the conflict nor alleviate the suffering of civilians. Instead, they emerge as a type of ‘satisficing’ that policymakers like less to change the balance of power on the ground, and more to score domestic political points. They neither signal strength to our adversaries nor sympathy for the victims they purportedly are meant to protect. Instead, they put interveners in an indefinite holding pattern, one followed by either retreat, or mission creep (or worse, a drip-drip-drip of military and financial resources). Calling for a no-fly zone in Syria is a not a courageous demonstration of resolve for presidential candidates, nor is it evidence of a humanitarian strategy. It is evidence of parroting the Washington ‘playbook’ handed them by advisors who prefer to punt on Syria and refuse to put forth creative solutions.”
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pakistan:  ground zero for islamism

4/19/2016

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Foreign Policy Institute:  Pakistan 
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the israeli conflict & the obama administration

4/19/2016

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AEI:  The Encirclement of Israel
FPI Fellow James Kirchick writes: Those who constantly insist that the two-state solution is imperative and urgent should answer the following question: Should we preserve the world’s sole Jewish state, or further risk its safety and possible existence for the sake of creating the 23rd Arab one? To paraphrase Winston Churchill on democracy: the status quo may be the worst situation for both Israelis and Palestinians, but it’s better than any of the alternatives. – Heat Street
 
Michael Mandelbaum writes: Telling the truth about the Israeli–Palestinian conflict would affirm American support for international law, democracy, the peaceful resolution of international disputes, and the principle of equal rights for all peoples. It would also affirm American opposition to aggression and terrorism. It would, that is, put the United States—to use a term favored by recent administrations—on the right side of history. - Commentary
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damage control:  obama must go to saudi arabia and a failed legacy world tour

4/19/2016

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AEI:  Obama's Failed Legacy Tour
AEI:  John Bolton "America's Middle East Policy, Post Obama"
President Barack Obama arrived in Saudi Arabia today to meet with leaders from the Gulf Cooperation Council nations. The meetings, which Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter will also attend, will follow up on a summit held at Camp David last year shortly after the P5+1 reached an agreement with Iran on its nuclear program. The topics of discussion are expected to include the fight against the Islamic State, broader issues of regional stability, Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen, and its rivalry with Iran. Morocco’s King Mohammed VI will also attend meetings tomorrow.

U.S.-Saudi ties have been strained for several reasons in recent months. In addition to remarks President Obama made in a recent interview in which he expressed his frustration with Gulf states for being “free riders,” U.S. domestic politics have also been an issue. President Obama is reportedly weighing the issue of whether or not he will declassify 28 pages from the 9/11 Commission Report that may implicate some Saudi officials in the 2001 attacks, and the U.S. Congress is considering legislation that would allow Saudi Arabia to be sued by family members of victims of those attacks. The Obama administration has argued against the bill, saying it could endanger Americans abroad, and Saudi Arabia has threatened to sell off potentially destabilizing sums of U.S. currency should it go through. The Senate is also considering a separate bill that would condition military aid to Saudi Arabia on account of the high civilian death toll in the Saudi intervention in Yemen.
Politico
NYT
AEI
General Charles Wald, USAF (Ret.) writes: The U.S. should encourage Saudi Arabia’s emerging leaders as they move forward with reforms, from women’s rights to free-market economics. A changing Saudi Arabia can be a catalyst for peaceful change, not violent conflicts, and the United States should nurture our partnership and encourage this evolution. – Defense One
Jonathan Schanzer and Max Peck write: Given the flagging American leadership, surging Iranian influence, and expanding Saudi engagements under King Salman, a protracted battle between Saudi Arabia and Iran seems inevitable. But the longer Iran and Saudi Arabia jostle for dominance in the region, the deeper they will be pulled into local conflicts, as they already have in Syria and Yemen, and the more they will find sectarian violence visited upon them and their allies. The events of the past year demonstrate that the Sunni-Shiite proxy war is not just escalating. It is entering a new phase, the dangers of which we are only beginning to understand. – AFPC’s Defense Dossier
“The Saudi and Gulf Perspective on President Obama’s Visit” (Anthony Cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studies)

“The end result is several ironies in the meeting between President Obama, the Saudis, and the other GCC states. First, such meetings almost inevitably announce improved cooperation in areas like missile defense and common resolve, and downplay serious issues. Unlike previous meetings, however, Obama is to some extent a lame duck President, and one clearly operating without the support of a Congress that Saudi Arabia sees as uncertain and to some degree hostile. In a year where every major security issue involves critical uncertainties, this U.S. President brings little clear leverage to the negotiations. His success will consist largely of restoring the image of cooperation without having an impact on the substance. Second, the Saudi royal family is all too familiar with the constant outside obsession with Royal politics and succession issues. This time, however, the U.S. President’s succession issues involve three main populist candidates whose foreign and security policies are almost all rhetoric and no clear substance. If the U.S. delegation is worried about future Saudi leadership, imagine how the Saudi leaders feel about the United States! Third, and perhaps most ironic of all -- regardless of what the Saudi Arabia can or cannot say publicly -- the only competent U.S. Presidential candidate that serves the common Saudi and U.S. interests, and now now seems to have a serious chance of winning, is a woman.”
President Obama joined the leaders of six Persian Gulf nations on Thursday for a summit meeting intended to reassure allies in the region that the United States is committed to their security. – New York Times
 
President Obama and King Salman of Saudi Arabia spent more than two hours in a closed-door meeting that American officials said was cordial but underscored deep differences with the kingdom over Iran, human rights and the best way to fight terror. – New York Times
 
Eli Lake writes: This is the backdrop of Obama's visit Wednesday to Riyadh. But the U.S.-Saudi relationship only appears to be on the rocks. Indeed, despite harsh words about how Saudi Arabia is politically organized and how the Iran agreement enhances its security, the president is doubling down on a partnership that has endured since the 1930s. He has deepened military and intelligence ties with the kingdom since he came into office in 2009. – Bloomberg View
 
Arthur Herman writes: Obama’s real Saudi problem is himself. By stiff-arming allies Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel while trying to embrace their arch-foe Iran as well as the Muslim Brotherhood, he has turned the Middle East inside out — while also devastating America’s oil and gas patch, the one bright spot on this administration’s dismal economic record. – National Review Online
FPI:  Foreign Policy Institute; During the Summit
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how to understand the saudi backed yemeni civil war

4/19/2016

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“Will Yemen’s latest round of negotiations reflect learning from past failures?” (Zaid Al-Ali and Helen Lackner, Monkey Cage)

“Negotiations to end the war in Yemen slated to begin Monday in Kuwait have been delayed. Will the third time be a charm or yet another flop? The first two attempts failed abysmally, because none of the parties involved were willing to accept anything other than total military victory. This time, things could be different. Though a potential deal remains difficult to fathom -- especially given the divergent views of the many parties -- revisiting the lessons from the transition process after the Gulf Cooperation Council Agreement in 2011 could help us avoid at least some of the pitfalls that led to the war. A recent report by Helen Lackner published by International IDEA finds that while Yemen suffers from a number of underlying social and economic challenges that will remain at the heart of the country’s development, many factors that contributed to the current conflict were linked to the transition plan’s original design and the manner in which it was implemented by specific individuals, institutions and states.”
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afghanistan rocked again:  terror

4/19/2016

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Kabul rocked. The Taliban has claimed responsibility for a suicide car bombing and small arms attack on an Afghan security agency in Kabul that killed at least 28 people and wounded more than 320.

The assault followed a familiar pattern for Taliban attacks in the capital city: detonate a vehicle packed with explosives, then storm a nearby building and fight it out with Afghan security forces until the attackers are dead. It’s unclear how many fighters were involved in the assault, but it comes as the government of President Ashraf Ghani struggles to hold key districts in Helmand province in the south amid a renewed Taliban offensives there. The government in Kabul is also struggling to hold overdue parliamentary elections this fall amid the worsening security situation.

The Institute for the Study of War recently released a map of Taliban strongholds throughout the country, showing the Taliban gains in the south.
Taliban attack kills dozens, wounds hundreds

A truck full of explosives detonated on Tuesday on an Afghan government security compound in central Kabul in a Taliban-coordinated attack that killed at least 28 people and wounded 327 others (NYT). A spokesman for the Taliban, Zabihullah Mujahid, issued a statement that claimed responsibility for the attack. The statement said that “a truck full of explosives” was detonated on “Department 10,” a National Directorate of Security (NDS) unit (Reuters), prior to armed militants entering the government compound. The explosion happened in a crowded urban area, near several government offices, however, most victims were civilians. Afghan Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah visited the site of the attack, saying it showed “the depth of barbarity and terror of Afghanistan’s enemies.”

Security forces in the compound entered into a gun battle with an unknown number of insurgents following the explosion, according to Mohammad Afzel, a police officer at the attack site, the Taliban spokesman, Mujahid, and reports by the New York Times and Reuters (NYT, Reuters). However, Kabul’s police chief, Gen. Abdul Rahman Rahimi said only one militant ambushed the compound after the explosion and was gunned down by security forces in less than half an hour.

The explosion set off warning sirens from the U.S. embassy compound which is near both the site of the attack and the headquarters of the NATO-led Resolute Support mission (Reuters). The U.S. embassy and the NATO mission both said that they were unaffected by the blast. On April 12, the Taliban announced the start of their ‘spring offensive’ and said in a statement that they would "employ large-scale attacks on enemy positions across the country (Yahoo).”
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daniel pipes:  the islamic state is collapsing

4/19/2016

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The Middle East Forum
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Putin's gains in syria

4/19/2016

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Project Syndicate
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china seeks influence in south west asia, aiding islamabad's terror network

4/18/2016

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AEI:  China Seeks To Influence Pakistan, South West Asian Terror Networks
​Swaraj raised Masood Azhar issue with Chinese counterpart

Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj on Monday in a meeting with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, raised the issue of China blocking the Indian effort to have Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) chief Masood Azhar designated as a terrorist by the United Nations (Hindu, TOI). Azhar is allegedly the mastermind of numerous terrorist attacks in India, including the Pathankot air base attack this January. Ms. Swaraj was meeting her counterpart on the sidelines of the Russia, India and China (RIC) trilateral meeting of foreign ministers in Moscow. Earlier this month, China prevented a United Nations sanctions committee from designating Azhar as a terrorist, arguing that the case “did not meet the requirements” of the Security Council
A senior Chinese military officer indicated to a visiting Afghan envoy that China wants to have deeper security ties with Afghanistan (NYT). China is willing to "deepen counter-terrorism intelligence, joint drills, personnel training and other areas of practical cooperation", Fang Fenghui, a member of the Central Military Commission which controls China's armed forces, told Mohammad Hanif Atmar, the Afghan national security advisor. China has become increasingly concerned about what it refers to as extremists and separatists in Xinjiang, where violence has killed hundreds in recent years, and sees security in Afghanistan as key to stability in China.
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pakistan hits punjab:  ct operations underway

4/18/2016

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Pakistan army takes over security operation in Punjab

On Saturday, Pakistan’s army took over an operation being conducted by security forces to flush out a criminal gang holding 24 hostages on an island in the riverine area of Rajanpur in Punjab province (NYT, Dawn). The security operation, which involves more than 1,600 policemen and Rangers, is now in its eleventh day. General Asim Bajwa, the head of the army’s public relations, made the announcement on Twitter writing, "Army troops deployed. Take over charge of op. Cordon reinforced, Police&Rangers already in op will cont to participate under Army." At least six police officials have been killed in the battle for the island.
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afghan news

4/18/2016

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With nearly 2,000 civilians killed or wounded and more than 80,000 people displaced this year already, the Afghan conflict continues to affect lives in record numbers, the United Nations said on Sunday. – New York Times
 
Elite Afghan troops battled Sunday to clear Taliban fighters from a highway outside a strategic northern city as residents fled their homes under threat of further violence. – Los Angeles Times
 
Twelve people, including three children, were killed when Afghan and U.S. forces conducted a raid on the house of a suspected al Qaeda member in east Afghanistan, according to a confidential report and people familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
With roads to Europe increasingly blocked by strict border controls, Afghans hoping to flee war and economic peril are desperately searching for new escape routes by way of refugee camps in India, airports in Russia and even the beaches of Cuba. – Washington Post
 
A video posted online in recent days shows what appears to be an Afghan Mi-17 transport helicopter landing and triggering an improvised explosive device somewhere on the ground. Some iterations of the video, posted to YouTube, bear the crest of the Taliban’s media arm, Al-Emera. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint
 
An unsettling new State Department report warns of potentially fatal electrical currents inside two well-populated buildings at the U.S. embassy complex in Afghanistan. – Military Times
 
Schools and health facilities have come under increasing threat as violence spreads in Afghanistan, making it harder for children especially to get access to education and medical care, the United Nations reported on Monday. - Reuters
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the saudi's & 9/11:  Fracturing relations

4/18/2016

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Saudi Arabia has told the Obama administration and members of Congress that it will sell off hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of American assets held by the kingdom if Congress passes a bill that would allow the Saudi government to be held responsible in American courts for any role in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. – New York Times
 
[T]he expected image of the two leaders will fail to convey the depth of the strain on the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States. During Mr. Obama’s tenure, there has been distrust and disagreement over how to contain Iran, the fight against the Islamic State, the future of Syria and clashes in Yemen. Blunt comments about the Saudis by Mr. Obama in a recent interview have deepened the ill will. – New York Times
 
In both cases, the families of the accused have complained of a lack of high-level attention from American officials — stemming, they fear, from the Obama administration’s reluctance to confront the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, which the United States views as two of its strongest strategic partners in the Arab world. – New York Times
 
Editorial: President Obama will have plenty of sticky issues to deal with on his visit this week to Saudi Arabia for a meeting with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council…But there’s another, equally important piece of business Mr. Obama should put on the agenda: He should urge Saudi King Salman to free imprisoned blogger Raif Badawi. – Washington Post
 
James Kitfield writes: In the current revolutionary period, the region is beset by multiple cross-cutting wars, the ongoing disintegration of at least four states (Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen), and the ascendance of familiar foes in the form of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (Daesh), and the theocratic mullahs of Iran. When they sit at the negotiating table for what should be a war council between venerable allies, Barack Obama and Saudi King Salman will stare across a vast gulf of distrust and suspicion. – Breaking Defense
Saudi Arabia has been spending big on public relations and lobbying in the U.S., coughing up millions of dollars for PR firms as a bill makes its way through Congress to allow 9/11 victims to sue the country in civil court over the attacks. The Saudis have hired an array of firms to make its case to the American government, including the Podesta Group, BGR Government Affairs, and DLA Piper, among others. The spending has also extended to publicity for Saudi-backed Syrian rebel groups, with the kingdom hiring Qorvis to run some of the Syrian Opposition Coalition's social media accounts.
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