CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR - CounterStrikeMedia

LIBYA: GENERALS VS. ISLAMISTS

4/30/2019

Libya's Coming Forever War: Why Backing One Militia Against Another Is Not the Solution by Frederic Wehrey and Emadeddin Badi

Libyan government presses US to block Gulf support for Tripoli offensive
The UN-backed Government of National Accord is lobbying Washington to halt Khalifa Hifter’s offensive on Tripoli by denying him arms from Gulf Arab states.

Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar's forces will launch a renewed push to seize Tripoli this month, leading to protracted fighting and a humanitarian crisis.
- Al Qaeda and the Islamic State will thrive amidst the fighting.

Generals vs Islamists in Libyaby Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
April 24, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58334/generals-vs-islamists-in-libya

Libyan forces push Hifter's army back in southern Tripoli
Forces loyal to Libya’s internationally recognized government appeared to push back Khalifa Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) in house-to-house fighting in southern Tripoli on Sunday. The fighting comes as four people were killed and 20 others were wounded in air raids on the capital a day earlier. Hifter's forces have been leading a three-week offensive on Tripoli that has killed at least 278 people. This weekend's air strikes came as the LNA said it had dispatched a warship to Ras Lanuf, a major oil port, to secure the country’s oil facilities. Read More 

"Al Qaeda and the Islamic State will be the winners of the Libyan civil war".

What Russia makes of Hifter's offensive on Tripoli
Russia has positioned itself as an impartial middleman in the Libyan crisis, but there's a fine blueprint that defines this position.

INDIA COUNTERS CHINA'S GRAND AMBITIONS ABOUT BELT AND ROADS

4/26/2019

ASIA TIMES

IRAN REVEALS NEW IRGC COMMANDER

4/26/2019

Tehran appoints new IRGC chief commander
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Hossein Salami as the new chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on April 21, replacing Mohammad Ali Jafari after 12 years in command. Salami previously served as deputy commander to Jafari for a decade.

Hossein Salami The New Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps
Read more Full document in PDF format

U.S., IRAN:
Why Iran-U.S. Confrontation May Intensify Under New IRGC Commander
By Saeid Jafari, Al-Monitor: "Iran replaced the commander of its powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) less than two weeks after the United States designated it a "foreign terrorist organization." Given the wider global agenda advanced by the new IRGC commander, the replacement is a clear signal from Tehran that bowing to Washington's pressure is not an option."

THE BATTLE OF AFGHANISTAN & PLOT TWISTS FOR MBS TO MOUNT THE THRONE

4/25/2019

Khalilzad flip flops on Pakistan, Taliban’s relationship with al Qaeda
In his testimony to Congress in July 2016, Zalmay Khalilzad called for designating Pakistan a State Sponsor of Terrorism for its support of the Taliban, noted the enduring Taliban-al Qaeda alliance. Today he praises Pakistan for its desire for peace in Afghanistan and claims the Taliban will be an effective counterterrorism partner.

The Battle of Afghanistan “Fundamentally, war is a contest of wills.”
Clifford D. May | Founder & President

Simon Henderson writes: One ‎monarch, Saud, was forced to abdicate in 1964 under family pressure. The next, Faisal, was assassinated in 1975 ‎by a nephew. King Khalid followed, but he was just a figurehead. And so on until the thirty-three-year-old ‎phenomenon known as MbS, a modernizer who has quickly gained notoriety for his reckless administrative ‎style. Whether he ultimately ascends the throne will entail plenty of plot twists, but it also holds serious ‎implications for the kingdom, the future of the region, and U.S. interests. – Washington Institute

It’s getting harder to track US progress in Afghanistan
(Defense One) It’s getting harder and harder for the public to track the U.S. military’s progress in its 17-year war in Afghanistan, the special inspector general for Afghan reconstruction warned Wednesday ahead of the release of his latest quarterly report.

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
U.S. Employs Unprecedented Number of Security Contractors in Afghanistan
By Paul D. Shinkman, U.S. News & World Report: "More than 5,800 privately employed security personnel are currently operating in Afghanistan under Pentagon contracts, according to the latest report released this month that the military headquarters overseeing Middle East wars compiles for Congress."

An Afghan peace on whose terms?
(The Diplomat) Peace talks are predicated on the notion that the Taliban have fundamentally changed. They haven’t.

SRI LANKA HIT WITH IMPORTED TERROR SQUAD

4/24/2019

Krishnadev Calamur writes: When Sri Lanka’s brutal civil war ended in an equally brutal fashion a decade ago, there was hope that the island nation could leave its past behind. The Easter Sunday bombings, the first attacks of this scale since the war, are a reminder of how fragile the peace the nation achieved really is. The attacks on churches and hotels, which killed more than 200 people, came at a crucial juncture: The country is still struggling to reconcile its past while building a new future. – The Atlantic

The Sri Lanka Church Bombings: The Saudi Pestilence Spreads

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ALGERIA SACKS HEAD OF NATIONAL OIL COMPANY & ITS FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR A NEW ARAB SPRING

4/24/2019

The Resilience of the Arab World's Pouvoir
Shlomo Ben-Ami shows why the forces pushing for political change in Algeria and Sudan could go the way of their predecessors.

The US administration is turning away from Africa at a time when more engagement is crucial, writes Emily Estelle in a Los Angeles Times op-ed. The oustings of Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmad Bashir and Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika last month are part of a wave of conflict engulfing northern Africa and posing grave risks to stability in the region and beyond. The discord is likely to produce major new refugee flows and increase the potential for a dramatic expansion of the Islamic State and al Qaeda in northern Africa. Learn more here.

Algeria’s protesters vie for uncertain legacy
Although weekslong protests in Algeria managed to dislodge the president and regime-linked figures, many challenges lie ahead still.

Algeria’s army moves from arbiter to central player in politics
The protests have thrust Algeria’s behind-the-scenes kingmaker into an unwelcome limelight.

ASIA TIMES: ALGERIA

Protesters rally in Algeria against ruling class for 10th Friday
reuters.com

Algeria sacks head of state-owned oil company
Algeria’s interim President Abdelkader Bensalah fired the head of state-owned oil giant Sonatrach on Tuesday. Abdelmoumen Ould Kaddour, who is close to former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, was replaced by Rachid Hachichi. Meanwhile thousands of students took to the streets of Algiers on Tuesday demanding the trial of figures linked to Bouteflika's two-decade-long regime. Authorities on Monday arrested five of the country’s wealthiest businessmen as part of an anti-graft investigation. Read More

"Algeria's Future: What Follows Bouteflika?"

SMALL WARS JOURNAL EXAMINES THE HISTORY OF THE LONG WAR & TALIBAN WALK OUT OF TALKS

4/22/2019

Bringing the Air Division Back to the Future
By Mike Pietrucha & Jeremy Renken, War on the Rocks: “The scope of changes that the U.S. Air Force must undertake to meet the direction of the National Defense Strategy is difficult to overstate. Recent clear-eyed assessments of threats from great powers like Russia and China, combined with the opportunity to reduce U.S. military investment in the Middle East has given the service’s planners a window of opportunity to let intentional design, rather than events, drive how it organizes, trains, equips, and presents its force."

Panel: Political end to Afghan War is risky but necessary
(USNI News) Talks between the United States and the Taliban over Afghanistan’s future remain risky but necessary to reach a political settlement to end decades of war, a leading expert in South Asia security affairs said Monday.

IRAQI FEDERALISM BEGINS IN BASRA: HOW TO HIT THE IRANIAN MULLAH'S WHILE SOLIDIFYING IRAQI SOVEREIGNTY & IRAN REPLACES IRGC CHIEF

4/22/2019

ASIA TIMES

ASIA TIMES

LIBYA: TRUMP'S LAST CHANGE TO END THE ENDLESS WAR & EGYPTIAN-US BILATERAL RELATIONS

4/20/2019

"Al Qaeda and the Islamic State will be the winners of the Libyan civil war".

Libya Is Trump’s Latest Chance to End An ‘Endless War’
By Bonnie Kristian, RealClearDefense: “This evacuation allows us to recognize that however well-intended, U.S. military intervention in Libya has done more harm than good."

France's Double Game in Libya
By Paul Taylor, Politico EU: “Like the police captain in “Casablanca” feigning outrage at gambling in Rick’s Café before being handed his winnings, France was “shocked, shocked” to find that the Libyan generalissimo whose forces it has covertly helped arm and train was marching on Tripoli."

Tunisia, Egypt host Libya talks as Hifter's forces slow push on Tripoli
UN envoy Ghassan Salame met on Monday with Tunisian Foreign Minister Khemaies Jhinaoui during a visit to Tunis to discuss the crisis in neighboring Libya. UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the two stressed the need to reach a political solution to end the crisis. Meanwhile, Egypt is hosting two emergency meetings today on the situations in Sudan and Libya. African leaders will focus on “relaunching a political process … [and] the elimination of terrorism” in Libya, the Egyptian presidency said. The spurt of diplomacy comes as eastern commander Khalifa Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army appeared to slow down its push on the capital Tripoli this week as the civilian toll in the fighting has topped 264 deaths and more than 32,000 civilians have been displaced. Read More 

Libyan leader slams France for supporting rival 'dictator' al-monitor.com

U.S., LIBYA:
Trump Backed Haftar's Attack on Tripoli, U.S. Officials Say
By Samer Al-Atrush & Jennifer Jacobs & Margaret Talev, Bloomberg: “President Donald Trump indicated in a phone call with Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar last week that the U.S. supported an assault on the country's capital to depose its United Nations-backed government, according to American officials familiar with the matter."

HAQQANI, NEW DELHI'S MOSCOW RELATIONS & HAKMATYAR ABOUT TALIBAN PAK RELATIONS

4/18/2019

India And Pakistan:
Making the Stability/Instability Paradox Go One Way
By Kevin R. James, The Strategist (ASPI): “Exploiting Kashmiri disaffection and the transnational jihadist movement, Pakistan is waging a deadly guerrilla war against India in Kashmir."

India is hopeful it will avoid US sanctions over its purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system, Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told AFP. – Agence France-Presse

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, one of Afghanistan’s most notorious former warlords, said there is “no doubt” neighboring Pakistan supports the Afghan Taliban. – Radio Free Afghanistan

Husain Haqqani writes: Pakistan’s support for militancy is motivated by the desire to provide a force multiplier for a relatively poor country trying to act as a major regional power without resources comparable to its perceived rival. Pakistan is an ideological state and is unlikely to change without questioning the state ideology. But for some in the West, the notion that “surely they must have understood by now that they need to change” often overrides the lessons of history. – The Print

TURKEY, US FINALLY CLASH OVER S400 & THE F35 DEALS

4/18/2019

ASIA TIMES: POLITICAL LEFT COLLAPSES IN TURKEY AND ISRAEL

Soner Cagaptay writes: The U.S.-Turkey relationship is facing a crisis. This is because, unlike in the past, Ankara has no powerful friends in Washington. And if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan purchases the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system, a deal to which Washington vehemently objects, this will cause a historic rupture between allies […]This time, with Russia signaling its readiness to provide Turkey with weapons and security in Syria, and Putin wooing Erdogan daily, a rupture will be deeper and last longer. – The Hill

Selçuk Colakoğlu writes: Turkey’s Eurasianist foreign policy lacks a full-fledged strategy that can realistically be expected to yield positive outcomes for the country, especially when compared to its Kemalist pro-Western counterpart. Despite its rhetorical allure, the anti-Western stance has not translated into a sustainable and prosperous economic model for Turkey. […]Turkey needs to forge and refresh regional partnerships and alliances as much as possible rather than fuel enmities and rivalries. The path to Turkey’s regaining and extending its influence regionally and globally lies in recommitting to a pro-Western axis underpinned by a Kemalist foreign policy. – Middle East Institute

After experiencing a decade of growth, Turkey’s increasingly vibrant defense industry may fall victim to the government’s quest to purchase the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system, a deal that will make Turkey the first NATO ally to deploy the system on its soil. […]Turkey risks severe U.S. sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. Top U.S. lawmakers are threatening to pass legislation that would bar Turkey from buying the F-35 fighter jet, and sanction the country if it buys the Russian S-400. – Defense News

WINEP’s Soner Cagaptay: Trump has–inadvertently–provided a fix to America’s Kurdish problem with Turkey

Why Turkey’s reliance on Trump for S-400 sanctions waiver appears misguided
Turkey is counting on President Donald Trump to waive US sanctions if Turkey takes delivery of the Russian air defense system. But any possible leniency would face significant obstacles in Congress.

MARTIN KRAMER TACKLES SECESSION CRISIS IN ISLAMIC CIVILIZATION, HOW SUDAN AND ALGERIA SHAPE THE ENTIRE REGION & WHY THE US MUST GET TOUGH WITH SAUDI ARABIA

4/17/2019

Sudan’s windfall from the Gulf and the perils of new development finance
Karen E. Young | AEIdeas
The US and the EU are in no position to compete with the amount or the immediacy of financial support that the Gulf Arab states can offer. But for emerging markets, today’s windfall is tomorrow’s institutional challenge

South Sudan’s opposition wants to extend the implementation of the initial stages of a peace deal with the government for a period of six months. After the coup against longtime President Omar al-Bashir, Sudanese protesters have suspendednegotiations with the military council leading the transitional government.

Arab Spring 2.0 Brings Unrest As U.S. Sits It Ou
tBy BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | April 19, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/arab-spring-20-brings-unrest-as-us-sits-it-out/90654/
Arab North Africa is in turmoil, and Americans are too tired, disillusioned, or self-absorbed to do anything about it. And that isn't necessarily a bad thing.
In Sudan, discontent has once again triggered unrest, while in Libya a budding strongman is on the rise. Unsavory outsiders -- neighboring regimes, Islamists, Russians, Iranians, even the Chinese -- are seeking to gain influence amid turmoil.
The Arab Spring that swept the region beginning in late 2010 quickly turned into a long winter. Chaos and terror slashed democratic hopes. Now Arab Spring 2.0 is upon us. Don't expect a brighter outcome than from the first.
Continue Reading

Jon B. Alterman writes: Even so, it would be a mistake to assume that the falls of Bouteflika and Bashir are merely isolated incidents. Algerian and Sudanese protestors seized on conditions that continue to prevail throughout the Arab world, and in most cases, they have not improved since the events of 2011. Corruption of every sort remains rife, economic conditions are worsening, and young people look with a combination of anger and envy at government officials. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Martin Kramer on the Middle East

Sudden succession in the Middle East

Sudan Crisis Impacts Whole Middle East
by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
April 11, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58208/sudan-crisis-impacts-middle-east

U.S. Must Get Tough on Saudi Arabia’s Rights Record

The emerging front-runners in Algeria’s uncertain election
Four prospective candidates have the organizational support and the name recognition to launch credible campaigns on short notice.

Protests Challenge Gulf Counterrevolution
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, April 18, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Much of the Middle East’s recent turmoil stems from internecine Middle Eastern rivalries spilling onto third country battlefields and Saudi and UAE-led efforts to roll back the achievements of the 2011 popular Arab revolts and pre-empt further uprisings. The recent successful toppling of ailing Algerian president Abdelaziz Bouteflika and months of anti-government demonstrations that have put Sudanese leader Omar al-Bashir on the defensive suggest that the Saudi-UAE effort may be faltering.
Continue to full article ->

How unemployment helped drive Algeria protests
In addition to charges of nepotism and corruption among the ruling class, bleak employment prospects — particularly for youth — drove many Algerians to the streets.

PALESTINIAN VICTIMHOOD MUST BE CONFRONTED, HOW IS HAMAS MANAGED IN GAZA & ISRAEL READY FOR ROCKETS

4/17/2019

The False "Nakba" Narrative
By Col (Res.) Dr. Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen, April 16, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The term “Nakba,” originally coined to describe the magnitude of the self-inflicted Palestinian and Arab defeat in the 1948 war, has been become in recent decades a synonym for Palestinian victimhood, with failed aggressors transformed into hapless victims and vice versa. Israel should do its utmost to uproot this false image by exposing its patently false historical basis.
Continue to full article ->

Maj. Gen. Yair Golan writes: It is not in Israel’s interest to destroy Hamas but rather to bring about regional calm and decrease the potential threat from the Gaza Strip in the future. Success is dependent on Israel’s interactions with the enemy, that is, the very low probability of good voluntary cooperation and sincere friendship. Therefore, Israel shod adopt a generous policy, as is fitting for the powerful, and if this policy does not pan out and Hamas reacts offensively, then security policy should be especially forceful. In addition, we ought to examine what steps are dependent on ourselves, as well as actors other than Hamas, that can advance Israeli interests. – Ynet

Israel's new army chief redefines missions, capabilities
IDF’s new Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi is now formulating a new multiyear plan that should address threats such as the thousands of rockets fired at Israeli cities.

NEW ARC OF INSTABILITY: ISLAMISM AND AFRICA (SUDAN, LIBYA, ALGERIA) & HOW EFFECTIVE IS US POLICY IN MIDDLE EAST

4/16/2019

Algeria replaces constitutional council head in purge of old guard
Algeria’s interim president Abdelkader Bensalah appointed Kamel Feniche as the new head of the country's Constitutional Council on Tuesday after the former chief stepped down. Tayeb Belaiz submitted his resignation earlier on Tuesday following calls by protesters for him to quit. Algerians have been demanding the resignation of figures linked to the former regime of Abelaziz Bouteflika, including Bensalah. The council is notably in charge of monitoring elections and candidates for office. Algeria is set to hold presidential elections July 4, after Bouteflika resigned following weeks of street demonstrations against his two-decade rule. Read More

CENTCOM chief meets Saudi leaders ahead of ‘Arab NATO’ meeting
US Central Command chief Kenneth McKenzie met on Monday with Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud during a visit to Riyadh, Saudi Press Agency said. McKenzie also held talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, focusing on bilateral ties and regional developments. McKenzie’s visit comes as Saudi Arabia prepares to host a preparatory meeting for the proposed Middle East Strategic Alliance, billed as an “Arab NATO” to counter Iran. The alliance, first put forward by Saudi Arabia in 2017, would also include the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Jordan. McKenzie stopped by Doha on Sunday, where he met with Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Read More

How effective is America’s Middle East strategy?
Danielle Pletka | AEI video

A New Arc of Instability in Northern Africa

A wave of disorder and conflict is threatening states across northern Africa, setting conditions for massive instability and the expansion of the al Qaeda and Islamic State threat. Protests are challenging repressive regimes in Algeria and Sudan, which share borders with a Libya in the throes of its latest bout of civil war. These events are part of a larger trend of potential state collapse that is spreading from weak states with small populations—Libya, Mali, Somalia—to larger states whose regimes have been perceived as secure—Algeria, Sudan. This trend places states with very large populations—Ethiopia, Nigeria, Egypt—increasingly under pressure. The Salafi-jihadi movement, which includes al Qaeda and the Islamic State, is best positioned to benefit from widespread instability.

Algeria’s path to success is narrow and fraught, as Emily Estelle argues in “ Algeria’s Future: What Follows Bouteflika? ” The country is at risk for elite fracturing and an army takeover that may lead to an insurgency.

Sudan’s protest movement has also reached a turning point. James Barnett argues that the subsequent power struggle could lead to civil war or state failure in "Sudan's Dictator Just Fell: What Comes Next?"

The reshaping of Algeria and Sudan—where Salafi-jihadi groups like al Qaeda have a long history—is occurring as their neighbor, Libya, descends into renewed civil war. Salafi-jihadi groups in Libya are already taking advantage of the conflict to re-establish networks and conduct attacks, as Emily Estelle assesses in “Al Qaeda and the Islamic State Will Be the Winners in the Libyan Civil War” . This piece includes an NTrepid Timestream graphic created by Emily Estelle and Mohamad El Kari.

Libya’s New Warlord Needs to Make Peace
By James Stavridis, Bloomberg: "Khalifa Haftar is marching toward Tripoli, but more conflict will only help the terrorists."

INDIA'S ELECTIONS BEGIN: CAN MODI MAKE IT AGAIN?

4/12/2019

India's security challenges shape society and politics
(Deutsche Welle) As the world's largest democracy goes to the polls, it faces many social and security challenges. Here is a breakdown of the major issues that politicians will have to negotiate after the votes have been counted.

ASIA TIMES: WHAT NEW DELHI WORRIES ABOUT KABUL

SUDAN & LIBYA HEATS UP FAST WITH CIVIL WAR APPROACHING & THE REALITY OF ALLIES MANAGEMENT FOR THE LONG WAR

4/11/2019

The US Must Stop Iran's Takeover of Yemen by Majid Rafizadeh •

Coup in Sudan, Protests in Algeria & Libya, and another Brexit Extension
Lakshmi V Menon, Harini Madhusudan, Abigail Fernandez and Sourina Bej
Click here for the commentary

Hifter meets Sisi in Cairo as his forces press on offensive in Libya
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi hosted on Sunday Libya’s eastern military commander, Khalifa Hifter, whose forces are leading an offensive in the capital, Tripoli, where the internationally recognized government is based. Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) deployed in western areas of the country last week as part of what he called an operation to “purge” Tripoli of terrorist groups. So far, more than 121 people have been killed according to the World Health Organization.
During the meeting in Cairo, Sisi “confirmed Egypt's support for efforts to combat terrorism and extremist groups and militias in order to achieve security and stability for the Libyan citizen.” Meanwhile on Sunday, forces loyal to the Government of National Accord downed a fighter jet belonging to the LNA south of Tripoli. A GNA spokesman said the plane was planning to launch air raids in the Wadi al-Rabie area. Read More 

Bloomberg’s Eli Lake: Sudan’s dictator is toppled, but his regime remains

Syria ally Bashir ousted in Sudan
Sudan’s military announced on Thursday it had ousted President Omar al-Bashir, an ally of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court for overseeing forces that killed thousands in the country’s Darfur province. Bashir has been replaced by Lt. Gen. Awad Mohamed Ahmed Ibn Auf, a military leader also wanted for crimes in the Darfur region whose ascendance brought jeers from Sudanese protesters. Assad in December 2018 became the first Arab leader to visit Damascus since the Arab League expelled Syria following the outbreak of civill war in 2011. Erstwhile Sudanese ally Iran is also keeping close watch on events in Khartoum. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghassemi on Thursday called on Sudanese parties to “show restraint, keep calm, use the policy of interaction and dialogue, and adopt peaceful means when pursuing their demands.” Read More

Libya is on the brink of an all-out civil war that threatens to upend years of diplomatic efforts to reconcile two rival armed political factions. The French government, the European power closest to Haftar, insists it had no prior warning of his assault, which is now less than 20km from the capital, Tripoli. The outcome could shape not just the politics of Libya, but also the security of the Mediterranean, and the relevance of democracy across the Middle East and north Africa. – The Guardian

Salma Wardany writes: As fighting in Libya encroaches on the capital, the risk of new oil-supply outages from the OPEC member has risen. The country has been in disarray since Muammar Qaddafi, its head of state, was removed from office and killed in 2011. Oil output surged in recent months as a fragile peace took hold, but the latest battles are a reminder that reliable crude flows require a political solution to end eight years of strife. – Bloomberg

US eyes bigger role for Libyan warlord as civil war looms
The United States has long struggled with how to handle Khalifa Hifter, as the former CIA asset has repeatedly threatened to march on the war-torn country’s capital.

Horns of a Dilemma: The Politics of Partnership in the War on Terror by Stephen Tankel

Clashes between the internationally recognized Libyan government in Tripoli and forces loyal to Gen. Khalifa Haftar have left some 56 people dead in the capital.

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The ouster of Sudan’s longtime dictator, Omar al-Bashir, heralds a major reset of power in the African country of 40 million, an anchor in the U.S. war on terrorism and European efforts to contain migration. – Wall Street Journal

Sudan’s military removed the country’s dictator from power on Thursday following months of protests against his 30-year rule, as a wave of popular unrest shakes North Africa that is reminiscent of the 2011 Arab Spring revolts. – Wall Street Journal

For 30 years, the Sudanese president ruled with an iron fist, first overthrowing an elected government in a 1989 military coup and then cementing his grip on power. Remarkably, he held on for years even as he faced international condemnation, a warrant for his arrest on genocide charges, war, uprisings and sanctions. […]Here are just a few of the many storms Bashir weathered in the past three decades. – Washington Post

Sudan’s defense minister, who led the overthrow Thursday of autocratic ruler Omar al-Bashir, has had his assets blocked by the U.S. Treasury since 2007 for supporting and managing militias accused of carrying out genocide in the country’s Darfur conflict. – Associated Press

It was the man named by President Omar al-Bashir as his deputy just six weeks ago who broke the news to the Sudanese people of the longtime ruler’s removal. Dressed in army fatigues, General Ahmed Awad Ibn Auf declared on Thursday that the 75-year-old had been overthrown and arrested following months of nationwide protests against his three-decade rule. – Al Jazeera

Editorial: Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir’s three decade reign of misery ended Thursday following a military coup. Good riddance, though his arrest alone won’t satisfy the protestors who have filled the country’s streets for months. […]Washington will need to continue counterterrorism cooperation with whoever comes to power while still pressing for democratic elections. The Trump Administration followed Barack Obama’s lead and rewarded antiterror help by removing some sanctions. The White House can use more sanctions relief as leverage with the new government. – Wall Street Journal

Eli Lake writes: The ouster of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir should be a moment for celebration: one of the world’s worst villains, driven from power after waves of popular protest. […]There are other steps the West can take to aid and protect Sudan’s opposition, such as building up legal cases against other regime leaders and offering encrypted communication technology to protest organizers. The most important step, though, is to resist the temptation to reach out to the military regime that replaced al-Bashir. Sudan should remain isolated until it is free. – Bloomberg

Tom Rogan writes: The Sudanese military’s deposing of President Omar al-Bashir is a step in the right direction towards Sudan’s better future. But it’s only a small step, because those replacing Bashir are too much like him. […]As the protests continue, we’re about to find out. But if a crackdown follows, human suffering may escalate dramatically. For that reason, President Trump should implore the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to warn the military against any use of force. Those American allies are top Sudanese export destinations. The military cannot afford to isolate them. – Washington Examiner

Alberto M. Fernandez wrties: Sudan’s most successful regime—measured solely in terms of sheer survival and misery inflicted on its people—will not reach its thirtieth anniversary. It was on June 30, 1989, that an obscure Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) general named Omar al-Bashir overthrew the democratically elected government of Sadiq al-Mahdi. At least that is what it looked like from the outside. In reality, it was a hardcore Islamist coup led by the urbane extremist Dr. Hassan al-Turabi working in cooperation with likeminded military elements. In an exquisite bit of theater, Turabi and some of his fellow plotters were detained at the beginning of the coup, creating confusion as to who was actually in charge and disguising the true nature of the resultant regime. – Washington Institute

WINDS OF CHANGE BLOWING IN PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN; WHO IS WINNING YEMEN

4/10/2019

An oil discovery before systemic reform in Pakistan would be a tragedy
Max Frost | The Diplomat

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
Taliban Announces ‘al-Fath Jihadi Operations’ for 2019
By Bill Roggio, FDD's Long War Journal: “The Taliban announced the commencement of its 2019 offensive, which it calls “Al-Fath Jihadi Operations.” Unlike in previous years, the Taliban does not prioritize attacks on U.S. and NATO forces, but instead sets its crosshairs on those working for the Afghan government, military, and police."

ASIA TIMES

Is Iran Winning in Yemen? by Soeren Kern

What does Pakistan need to close its air defense gaps?
(Defense News) The most recent military standoff between India and Pakistan has exposed longstanding gaps in the latter’s defenses that now appear to be receiving renewed attention.

Both sides of Yemen's civil war are attempting to convene a quorum of parliamentarians in order to solidify their control over the divided legislative body.
- For more detail, revisit "Yemen's Houthi movement can still be split from Iran."

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, in an interview Tuesday with foreign journalists, expressed concern and sorrow over the deterioration in relations with India. He said the Modi government was unleashing domestic hostility against Muslims, a minority of more than 200 million, and that the very idea of “Muslim-ness” was under attack. Nevertheless, Khan also suggested that if Modi were to win reelection, his “right-wing” government might be more likely to reach a settlement on Kashmir, which both countries have claimed since they were partitioned in 1947. – Washington Post

Mohammed Sinan Siyech writes: The following four issues deserve a place on the bilateral agenda. First, Delhi should prioritize negotiations for the protection of Indian expatriate workers in Qatar, many of whom have experienced various forms of labor abuse. Second, India could seek to collaborate with Qatar on developing a cleaner and more energy efficient environment. Third, in light of the popularity of Bollywood among Qataris, India should seek to boost its “soft power” influence through additional avenues of cultural exchange. – Middle East Institute

ALGERIA'S INTERIM PRESIDENT REJECTED BY PROTESTERS

4/10/2019

Algeria sets date for presidential election
Algeria will hold presidential elections on July 4, the interim presidency announced Wednesday. Parliament this week named Senate leader Abdelkader Bensalah as interim president, one week after the resignation of Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Protesters who forced Bouteflika out after weeks of street demonstrations however continue to demand a political overhaul. Algeria’s army chief, Lt. Gen. Gaid Salah, on Wednesday called on the judiciary to prosecute members of the political elite involved in corruption. Read More 

Algerian protesters reject interim president
Algerian security forces fired tear gas to disperse thousands of students who took to the streets of downtown Algiers on Tuesday to protest parliament’s appointment of Abdelaziz Bouteflika ally Abdelkader Bensalah as interim president following Bouteflika's resignation after two decades in power. Under the Algerian constitution Bensalah, the chairman of the upper house of parliament, can remain in power for as long as 90 days as Algeria prepares for new elections.
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Protests will continue in Algeria as elites attempt to preserve their power during a transitional period.
- Revisit "Algeria's Future: What Follows Bouteflika?"

IS DEBT THE ANSWER TO MIDDLE EAST'S ECONOMIES

4/10/2019

Is debt the answer to Middle East economic troubles?
Karen E. Young | Al-Monitor

Is debt the answer to Middle East economic troubles?
The forecast for growth across the Middle East and North Africa is bleak. Unfortunately for the regions, heavy debt appears to be one way out.

TALIBAN HIT US BASE AFGHANISTAN

4/10/2019

Afghan Counterterrorism Through Peace
By Francis X. Tailor, RealClearDefense: "As the U.S.-Taliban peace negotiations lurch forward in fits and starts, there is a fundamental question lingering in the minds of U.S. policymakers in Washington—is there a way for the United States to withdraw the preponderance of its troops and extricate itself from an otherwise endless war while at the same time ensuring fundamental U.S. national security interests continue to be protected?"

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/04/3-us-service-members-contractor-killed-in-taliban-bombing.php

ISRAELI ELECTIONS: A SQUEAKER; WHY GOLAN MATTERS FOR ISRAELI SECURITY & WHAT HALEY DID FOR THE MIDDLE EAST

4/10/2019

Jon Lerner writes: It’s a new era because Haley challenged and disproved some important basic assumptions about Middle East policy. It turns out that the United States can support Israel strongly and still work closely with Arab states to promote common interests such as opposing Iranian threats. The Arab street is not narrowly Israel-minded and is not as volatile as long believed. The sky won’t fall if the U.S. stops funding UN sacred cows such as UNRWA. Even if future U.S. administrations revert back to the policies of the past, these old assumptions will remain disproven. That is a valuable accomplishment that will last long after Nikki Haley’s UN tenure. – Commentary Magazine

Netanyahu Promotes "Principle of Victory"April 9, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58161/netanyahu-promotes-principle-of-victory

INSS’s Amos Yadlin: A US return to JCPOA would be a dangerous choice

Amos Yadlin writes: Concomitantly, a Security Council resolution is needed to address the issues of ballistic missiles, terror and malign Iranian interventions throughout the Middle East. To that end, it is necessary to continue the pressure on Iran from all directions, create a broad international coalition, and clarify in reliable and convincing fashion that not only are all options against Iran “on the table,” they also are ready to use and the will to do so is real. – The Hill

A Netanyahu Win Could Well Mean A Truncated Term
By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | April 10, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/a-win-by-bibi-could-well-mean-a-shortened-term/90642/

Both sides declared victory Tuesday night as Israelis voted in what looked like a placeholder election, but by early morning Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed to emerge on top.
"There are losers and winners in elections, and we are the winners," said top contender Benny Gantz. Later on, though, Mr. Netanyahu said he has "almost" completed gathering enough supporters for a ruling coalition.

Yet, Bibi's legal troubles, culminating in a June court hearing, figured prominently in the campaign, and they may be on politicians' minds as negotiating the election's outcome, which will last for days, went into high gear.
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Netanyahu holds edge in Israeli elections
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared himself the winner of Israel’s parliamentary election today after his Likud party won 35 seats, the same as the Blue and White coalition led by his main rival, retired military chief Benny Gantz. Netanyahu is expected to be tasked with forming the next government as conservative parties took a clear lead in the overall share of Knesset seats, moving past the 61-seat threshold needed to remain in power. "This is an unimaginable achievement," Netanyahu told supporters in Tel Aviv in a celebratory speech early today. "I am very moved tonight, a night of tremendous victory. I am very excited that the people of Israel once again trusted me for the fifth time, and with greater confidence." President Reuven Rivlin is expected to soon start government formation talks. Read More

Trump’s clear view of the Golan Heights
International law does not license aggressors to launch risk-free wars

Netanyahu's Remarkable Achievement
Editorial of The New York Sun | April 10, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/netanyahus-remarkable-achievement/90643/
The likelihood that Prime Minister Netanyahu will be given the mandate to form the next government in Israel is a remarkable achievement. It ratifies not only his own leadership but also the historic shift to the right in Israel over the past generation. It augurs well for Israel's relations with America, which been one of the bright spots in the eras of both Mr. Netanyahu and President Trump.
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Boris Zilberman writes: By moving forward with the recognition, the Trump administration is sending an important message to Moscow, Tehran, and Damascus: the United States stands with Israel in ensuring our most important regional ally has defensible borders against a broad spectrum of threats. […]To anyone who has ever stood on the Golan Heights, it is perfectly clear why the area would be vital to any successful attack on Israel, and why Israel, once in control of the strategic plateau, could never relinquish the Golan Heights and keep itself secure. – Washington Examiner

THE SAUDI'S GO NUCLEAR

4/8/2019

DEFENSE ONE

Katherine Zimmerman writes: Washington should also encourage partners to develop or restore relationships with individuals who have chosen to support the Houthis politically during the civil war but who might not entirely believe in their cause. […] Splintering the Houthi movement in this fashion could begin to diminish the group’s influence in Yemen. Reducing the Houthis’ strengths would increase the prospects of an acceptable negotiated settlement to the war and a political resolution in Yemen. – RealClearWorld

TRUMP ADMIN GETS IT RIGHT: IRGC NAMED TERROR LEADER OF TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINAL NETWORKS

4/8/2019

More Iranian Sanctions for What Purpose? by Mark Fitzpatrick

US to designate IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization
The State Department announced today that it intends to designate the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization. The IRGC's activities span the globe.

The Revolutionary Guard’s Disinformation Campaign to Dominate Iran’s EconomySaeed Ghasseminejad | Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor

Tehran Expands its Presence in Oman

EDUARDO SALCEDO-ALBARÁN
Hyper-Modern, Hyper-Adaptive—and Deadly
Transnational criminal networks have evolved with a complexity that outstrips current institutional capacities, investigative tools, and judicial systems.

U.S. Designates Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organization

European powers express growing concern about Iranian missiles

Terrorist designation increases burden on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard
Behnam Ben Taleblu | Senior Fellow

IRAN IN DIRE STRAITS: AEI

Pulling the plug on Iran’s nuclear program

Sanctions on the IRGC Will Be Judged by Results - and by Iran's Reaction
By Yaakov Lappin, April 12, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Trump administration’s decision to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist entity will ultimately be judged by how successful it is in changing Iran’s conduct.
Continue to full article ->

The Trump Administration’s Iran Policy is a Mess by Aaron Stein

US Designation of Revolutionary Guards Risks Escalation
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, April 12, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The US designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization, and the Iranian response, has potentially put US military personnel in the region in harm’s way. The designation increases economic pressure on Iran because the IRGC is not only an army but also a commercial conglomerate – but it remains to be seen to what degree the sanctions will affect the IRGC.
Continue to full article ->

Hezbollah’s Martyrs Foundation: purpose, mode of operation and funding methods
Published: 17:50 11.4.19
Read more Full document in PDF format

Matthew Levitt writes: The Foreign Terrorist Organization listing adds only two substantive tools[…]. Depending on how these new tools are implemented—and what guidance the White House gives border authorities and prosecutors—these could have significant effects, some positive, some not. It also adds yet another layer of sanctions threat, which could sharpen the costs of doing business with Iran more broadly given the extent to which the IRGC is embedded in the Iranian economy. This could prove particularly difficult for Iraq, which is dependent on Iranian energy and whose officials could now be exposed to sanctions and criminal liability. – Washington Institute

BIOGRAPHY OF EGYPT'S AL-SISI, A LOOK AT MIDDLE EAST ARM SALES FROM CHINA-RUSSIA, SHIA WEAK SPOT IN ISLAMIC CIVILIZATION & PAKISTAN'S SELF-MADE ECONOMIC CRISIS

4/3/2019

Who Is Sisi of Egypt? A Salafi.by Ramy Aziz
Middle East Quarterly
Spring 2019
https://www.meforum.org/57908/egypt-sisi-salafi

ASIA TIMES: PAKISTAN

Pentagon's Focus On China and Russia Expected to Alter US Arms Sales
// Marcus Weisgerber A new report shows a decline in Middle Eastern nations' share of overall exports.

Michael Rubin writes: Shiism itself—rather than political reformism—has always been the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Achilles’ heel. Khamenei may claim the ultimate political and religious authority, but he lacks the education, reputation, and respect that Sistani has earned through decades of scholarship and teaching. That Rouhani and the regime he serves have tried to twist Sistani’s subtle statements into an endorsement of Iran and condemnation of the United States only undercuts the Iranian regime’s legitimacy further in the eyes of ordinary Shiites. – The National Interest

Farzin Nadimi writes: Over the past few months, Iran has limited its ballistic missile tests to a pair of unsuccessful satellite launch attempts. Yet the escalation and nuances evident in recent IRGC rhetoric indicate that such activity might soon ramp up. For example, the IRGC could use the latest brawl with Europe to galvanize domestic support for developing longer-range missiles, as part of what military leaders call “changing the deterrence calculus” (a theme that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself spoke of more generally during his recent Nowruz address). – Washington Institute

Sisi keeps watchful eye on Al-Azhar's growing role abroad
Egypt's president is reportedly concerned that Al-Azhar's increasing international activity is working to insulate itself from the Egyptian government's control.

Egypt parliament to vote on constitutional changes extending Sisi’s term
The Egyptian parliament will cast its final vote on Tuesday on constitutional amendments to allow President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to rule until 2030, after a parliamentary committee approved the final text on Sunday. The proposed changes would extend the presidential term from four years to six and allow a maximum of two consecutive terms. The final text would also extend Sisi’s current term by two years and allow him to run for one additional six-year term when this one expires, cementing the country’s slide back to strongman rule after the toppling of Hosni Mubarak. The amendments would be put to a national referendum next week if they are approved. Read More 

ABBAS MILANI: FEAR AS STATE POLICY IN MIDDLE EAST

4/3/2019

Abbas Milani Explains How Authoritarian Regimes Use Fear To Stay In Power
by Abbas Milani via PolicyEd
In spite of systematic gender discrimination at every level, Iranian women have continued their fight for inclusivity. As a result, Iranian women have become harbingers of a movement of civil disobedience. The women’s movement is not just about the veil – it is about breaking the authority of a repressive regime.

Getting Back To Basics
by Tony Badran via The Caravan
Since the end of the Cold War — and, most dramatically, in the Bush and Obama years — American strategy in the Middle East has shifted from one anchored in the state system to one focused on non-state actors, particularly terrorist groups, and on projects disconnected from geopolitics. The result has been the return — after nearly five decades — of Russian sway, the commandeering of large swaths of territory by Iran, and the emergence on the scene of China. The Russian-Iranian military campaign in Syria, and the increasing Chinese influence in the Middle East require a return to Cold War principles.

Vinay Kaura writes: Amid concerns that Khalilzad may have given too much ground to the Taliban, thereis talk of “contingency plans” to protect America’s security interests if negotiations fail to produce results, meaning military options are still on the table. The Trump administration has been hoping for success in the peace talks but does not seem willing to sign a deal with the Taliban from a position of weakness. – Middle East Institute

Abbas Milani: Why Trump Declared Iran's Revolutionary Guard Terrorists
with Abbas Milani via KCBS Radio Hoover Institution fellow Abbas Milani explains the implications of the United States declaring Iran's Revolutionary Guard a "foreign terrorist organization." The designation is the first time that America has categorized a part of another country's government as terrorists.

AFRICA'S POST COLONIAL ERA ENDING
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AFRICAN ARAB SPRING

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ISHMAEL NOT FATHER OF ARAB CIVILIZATION
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DEFEATING SECTARIANISM IN MIDDLE EAST

rand_rb10052.pdf
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SECULARISM, NATIONALISM, ISLAMISM: MAKING MODERN MIDDLE EAST
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terrorism-tactics-and-transformation.pdf
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CHANGING DYNAMICS OF SALAFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS

FOREIGN AFFAIRS - THE ARAB SPRING @ 5
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BIN SALMAN & THE REFORM OF SAUDI ARABIA
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NATIONAL INTEREST, ARAB SPRING
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FOLLOWING VISION 2030

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THE PAKISTAN READER

ARAB SPRING & POLITICAL REFORM
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