Options for a United States Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa
By Damimola Olawuyi, Divergent Options: "For the foreseeable future, any foreign policy towards Africa will need a robust counter terrorism component."

Turkey and the Libyan and Syrian Civil Wars
By Col. (res.) Dr. Dan Gottlieb and Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar, May 4, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is constantly looking for opportunities to enhance its status as a regional superpower and promote its Islamist ideology in the Arab Middle East. Libya is the newest arena in which Erdoğan is trying to capitalize on inter-Arab rivalries, this time in service to his desire to lay claim to gas under the seabed of the Mediterranean.
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​Tunisia extends state of emergency another month 
Tunisia announced on Wednesday that the state of emergency in force since 2015 will be extended by an additional month, according to a presidential statement. The announcement coincides with the government’s plan to ease the coronavirus-linked lockdown beginning next week. Tunisia has been under a state of emergency since November 2015, when a suicide bombing in Tunis claimed by the Islamic State killed 12 presidential guards.
Read More  
africa.cgtn.com

Kenneth Pollack assesses the appointment of Mustafa al-Khadimi, an Iraqi nationalist selected with the task of forming a government, and concludes that if there were ever a moment to build a strong independent Iraq, the time is now. Mustafa Kadhimi may be the last, best hope to begin moving Iraq in a better direction. Shouldn’t we help him help us? Read here.

Following last week’s disarray in oil markets, Karen Young took to Al-Monitor to explain that the problem of weak demand for energy products combined with a fear of a slow Chinese economic recovery pose a major concern for Gulf oil producers. The volatility in energy prices is a reflection of the uneven nature of global demand recovery and any expected reopening of national economies. Thus, Gulf producers must navigate an angry White House and Congress (with the threat of tariffs), uncertainty regarding Asian partners, and demand due to the pandemic. Learn more here.

West Africa hosts a network of Salafi-jihadi groups that is expanding as local conditions deteriorate. In a new AEI report, Katherine Zimmerman analyzes how the Sahel-based Salafi-jihadi groups coordinate and cooperate across organizational divides to create an ecosystem of ideology and terror. In an interactive graphic, Zimmerman displays how the groups’ coordinated effort to transform Sahelian society and governance into their vision under Islam has helped destabilize the region and has created opportunities for Salafi-jihadi growth. Read the full report here and view the interactive graphic here.

International crises that predate the coronavirus pandemic in Syria, Libya, and West Africa are getting worse with negative implications to US national security. In a RealClearWorld op-ed, Emily Estelle argues that the wars in Syria and Libya are creating conditions for which the US is unprepared and potential geopolitical crises in African states are at the verge of exacerbating. The US will wake up from its COVID-19 nightmare to renewed national security horrors if our leaders fail to take the right lesson from the pandemic: The best policy is one of early recognition and preemptive action. Read it here.

WINEP’s Farzin Nadimi: Iran's evolving approach to asymmetric naval warfare

Farzin Nadimi writes: The study, which includes maps, tables, and other graphics, covers everything from submarines to sea mines, while also distinguishing between the roles of the revolutionary navy (IRGCN) and the conventional one (IRIN). Most important, it offers a sober take on Iran’s capabilities and intentions during a perilously unstable time. – Washington Institute

Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write: Iraq’s political elites are conditioning their support for Prime Minister (PM)-designate Mustafa al-Kadhimi on the composition of his cabinet. The widening rift between Kadhimi and Iran-backed blocs has led Kadhimi to preserve the traditional system of ethno-sectarian quota filling, to marginalize protester demands, and to step up his comments about the “unjustified foreign [US] presence” in an attempt to mend ties. Behind the scenes, the US and Iran have continued their competition to influence Iraq’s future – Institute for the Study of War

eth J. Frantzman writes: The reduction of the Iraqi army presence and outsourcing of border security and raids to the PMU has the result of enabling sectarian militias to run the borders of Iraq, as opposed to the more unifying aspects of the Iraqi army. Despite years of training the Iraqi army to conduct anti-ISIS operations, it appears the PMU wants to keep the lion’s share of these operations to themselves, controlling rural areas and using the control to further political and economic goals. – Jerusalem Post

Sheikh Sadiq Al-Ghariani, who is regarded by the Muslim Brotherhood as the Grand Mufti of Libya, said in a video that aired on Al-Tanasuh TV (Libya) on April 15, 2020, that shari’a permits suicide bombings on the condition that they rattle the enemy, cause great harm and losses to the enemy, and cause a crushing defeat. – Middle East Media Research Institute

The fight to build America’s next missile interceptor has officially begun. The Missile Defense Agency on Friday released its request for proposal for its Next-Generation Interceptor (NGI). The RFP aims to downselect to two companies who will then compete for the right to build the interceptor, which will form the core of America’s homeland missile defense going forward. – Defense News

Thomas G. Mahnken writes: We need to learn from the past in developing the next generation of weapons. For example, in recent months, Australian defense analysts have discussed the attractiveness of the B-21 Raider stealth bomber for Australia’s defense needs. Export of the B-21 to a close ally such as Australia, should Canberra so desire, should be given serious consideration. The current situation is challenging, with even more difficult times to come. If we are smart, however, we can both keep Americans at work and get what we need for national defense. – Defense New

Trump Can Either Leave the Middle East or Have War With Iran
By Trita Parsi, RealClearDefense: "Mindful of the dwindling importance of Middle East oil to the U.S. and the U.S.’s lack of resources and expertise to “fix” dysfunctional states in that region, the cost-benefit analysis of retaining military hegemony in the Middle East no longer makes sense."

In Defense of Deterrence
By Michael Rühle, National Institute for Public Policy: "As the international environment is characterized by increased competition, the concept of deterrence, after over two decades of having received scant attention in the West, has re-entered the strategic lexicon."

Coronavirus Threatens to Drive Wedge into US-Gulf Relations
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, May 4, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: It is early days, but first indications are that the global coronavirus pandemic is entrenching long-drawn Middle Eastern geopolitical, political, ethnic, and sectarian battle lines rather than serving as a vehicle to build bridges and boost confidence. Gulf states are taking contradictory approaches to the problem of ensuring that entrenched conflicts do not spiral out of control as they battle the pandemic and struggle to cope with the economic fallout.
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COVID-19 in Libya

Pakistan’s Pandemic Response: Faith, Federalism, and the Challenge Ahead with Madiha Afzal

Hanin Ghaddar on Weakening Hezbollah's Control of Lebanon by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Radio
April 21, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60721/ghaddar-weakening-hezbollah-control-of-lebanon

Algeria’s ‘Revolution of Smiles’ Democracy Movement Hit Hard by COVID-19

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
Support for Full Withdrawal From Afghanistan Grows
By Leo Shane III, Military Times: “Nearly three-quarters of veterans surveyed and almost 70 percent of troops' family members support a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, according to a new poll from a conservative activist group released Wednesday."
RUSSIA:
Russia Field Testing Its New Armata Tank in Syria
By Kyle Mizokami, Popular Mechanics: “The Russian government has revealed that its new T-14 Armata main battle tank was shipped to Syria for use under “field conditions.

Russian Modernization of Its ICBM Force
By Mark B. Schneider, RealClearDefense: "Since 1997, Russia has been modernizing its ICBMs by replacing legacy Soviet ICBMs with new (post-Cold War) systems. In December 2019, Colonel General Sergei Karakayev, commander of Russia’s ICBM force (the Strategic Missile Force or RVSN) stated that 76% of Russia’s ICBM force had been modernized and that 100% would be by 2024."

Future Systems: A Road Forward for National Security
By Kimberly Aftergood, RealClearDefense: "When it comes to government IT modernization, the stakes are higher in national security, where the ability to maintain competitive advantage has significant real-world impact."

Aligning America’s Ends and Means in the Indo-Pacific
By Bradley Bowman & John Hardie, Defense News: "The U.S. combatant command responsible for the Indo-Pacific region warned in a report last month that it lacks the resources and capabilities necessary to implement the National Defense Strategy. This mismatch between ends and means endangers American interests and invites Beijing to pursue opportunistic aggression.” ​

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/04/generation-jihad-ep-5-banned-in-pakistan.php

Israel warns Hezbollah over its recent activity in Syria
A recent series of incidents between Israel and Hezbollah has increased the likelihood of renewed conflict between the two foes.

​The message behind Israel’s drone attack
Hezbollah is on edge as Israel continues its drone war in Lebanon.

Arrests in Germany highlight reach of Islamic State’s Central Asian network
German prosecutors announced last week that four alleged ISIS members were arrested and charged with planning attacks against U.S. military facilities. The four are from Tajikistan, a Central Asian country ISIS has long targeted for its recruiting efforts.

Al Qaeda, Islamic State strike across the Sahel
The two jihadist groups continue their rampage in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

Who Runs Iran’s Propaganda Machine Abroad

Ex-Mossad official: Iran nuke submarine idea cover for uranium enrichment
Tehran losing Gaza influence  Read More...

Iran Seeks to Block Investigation of January’s Ukrainian Airliner Cras

India and Pakistan Exchange Fire with Sameer Lalwani

Is the Infantry Brigade Combat Team Becoming Obsolete? by Daniel Vazquez

The Islamic Revolution vs. Donald Trump
​Iran and Ayatollah Khamenei are more influential today than at any time since 1979.

Iran vs. Trump: Suleimani’s Legacy, and Khamenei’s Ambitions
​The supreme leader and Trump may well end the long-running, region-defining clash. We just don't know yet quite how.

The Israel Defense Forces on Friday accused the Syrian army of helping the Hezbollah terror group establish a permanent military presence on the Golan Heights, releasing video footage showing a senior Syrian officer visiting the region. – Times of Israel

WINEP’s Farzin Nadimi and IITV's Hamdi Malik: Qaani’s surprise visit to Baghdad and the future of the PMF

Michael Rubin writes: Whereas just a few months ago, most Iranians were indifferent to their government’s outreach to China and the growing Chinese presence in Iran, that too will likely change as suspicion of China and the Chinese will likely taint government outreach. Russia will always have a greater stigma within Iranian society than China, but no longer will Tehran be able to sell its turn toward Beijing as cost-free. That will not mean that Iranian leaders would abandon their eastern strategy, but even ardent regime Islamists recognize the potency of grassroots Iranian nationalism and will think twice about openly crossing it. – The National Interest

Secrecy, denial, and incompetence have condemned thousands of Iranians to their deaths amid the coronavirus. In a National Interest op-ed, Michael Rubin argues that if the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps is at the forefront of the Iranian fight against COVID-19, the coronavirus will likely erode Iran military readiness. Even if Iranian leaders now adopt best practices, it is likely too late to control the virus’ continued spread in Tehran meaningfully.  Continue here.

ICYMI: Last December, Hal Brands, Kenneth Pollack, and Steven Cook noted in Foreign Policy that President Trump sees himself as a leader who shatters generations of conventional wisdom in US foreign policy. In the case of Iran, he is right. And unless the president changes course, he will usher in a brave new era in US relations with the Persian Gulf — one that may well help Iran claim its long-sought ascendancy in that region and leave Americans longing for the good old days of the Carter Doctrine. Read more here.

Iran deploys missiles covering the Strait of Hormuz

COVID-19, the oil price war, and the remaking of the Middle East
The geoeconomics and geopolitics of the world are in free fall because of COVID-19, the oil price war, and a severe economic shutdown. For the Middle East and the Gulf monarchies in particular, the oil price war against Russia and U.S. shale and the shutdown of economies around the world have increased the pressure on the Gulf’s already-depleted financial resources, which usually act as a safety valve for the turbulent region. 
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Evidence suggests that Iran has deployed an array of anti-ship missiles and large rockets overlooking Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is vital for the supply of oil from the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. The waterway is being patrolled by U.S. Navy and its allies to protect vessels from Iranian action. – Forbes

China’s Strategic Assessment of Afghanistan by Yun Sun

AEI’s Michael Rubin: Pakistan is showing U.S. enemies how to defeat America

HOOVER

MEMRI’s Steven Stalinsky: What jihadists are saying about the coronavirus

Jonathan E. Hillman and Maesea McCalpin write: Facing a harsher economic environment, however, China and Pakistan may be forced to make additional tradeoffs between completing energy and transportation projects that were started during the first phase and focusing on these areas. Canceling more big-ticket projects could be financially wise but politically challenging given the CPEC’s symbolic importance to Xi’s signature foreign policy vision. But if Pakistan does not carefully steer the Belt and Road’s flagship during the next five years, it could find itself scrambling for the lifeboats. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​

Australia’s Big Stake in India’s Military Reorganization by David Brewster

Farahnaz Ispahani writes: The Pakistani government, responding to international outrage at the court decision, has announced that it will go into appeal and will not free Mohammed. But those who know how things in Pakistan really work know that the stage has likely been set for another murderer’s freedom. – Washington Examiner

Syria's Chemical Arsenal: A U.S.-British Row over Assad's Weapons?
by Wyn Bowen and Matthew Moran
Middle East Quarterly
Spring 2020 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/60502/syrias-wmd-a-us-british-ro

Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of the Iranian regime’s Expediency Council whose members are appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and whose role it is to advise him, published an article on April 2, 2020 via the Fars news agency. In the article, Rezaee, who is also a former commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), discussed the ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic for the world. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Four decades since its Islamic Revolution made it a pariah, Tehran has cobbled together one of the world’s most bizarre air forces—a combination of rebuilt U.S.-supplied planes dating from the 1970s plus homegrown designs of highly varying value and, most strangely of all, scores of aircraft essentially stolen from Iraq after they fled to Iran to escape American attack during the 1991 Gulf War. – The National Interest

Amos Yadlin and Ari Heistein write: The urgency of the situation at hand should not cause us to lose sight of the broader strategic picture. Humanitarian assistance to the Iranian people is a moral necessity at this time, but it would be preposterous to entrust such aid without adequate oversight to the very government which is responsible for murdering thousands of its own citizens as well as tens of thousands more throughout the region. – Times of Israel 

Ilan Berman writes: It would also indicate that, notwithstanding the rhetoric of regime officials and policymakers, the Islamic Republic is not actually persevering in its battle with the disease. To the contrary, the statistics suggest that the country is slowly succumbing to it, even as authorities hide the true extent of the health crisis from both the international community and their own captive population. – Radio Farda 
​
Rahim Hamid and Mostafa Hetteh write: If international bodies do not condemn these atrocities, the regime will see the international preoccupation with coronavirus as a way to mask its abuse of prisoners and refusal to prevent mass infections within its prison systems in Ahwaz and throughout Iran. So far, those released in amnesty have masked Iran’s continued human rights abuses against those political prisoners still trapped in Iran’s jails. In the midst of a crisis, the international community must take this opportunity to pressure Iran on this crucial issue. – Washington Institute 

Hussein Ibish writes: But Iran still has a trump card in Iraq: the Shiite sectarian militia groups collectively known as the Popular Mobilization Forces. Using them to attack the U.S. provides that military leverage with a degree of plausible deniability. […]Moreover, Iran needs the PMF groups to consolidate their position within the Iraqi political structure and fend off a potential pro-U.S. prime minister. – Bloomberg ​

Jordan is in discussions with the IMF seeking to change some of the objectives of a four-year programme of structural reforms because of the negative impact of the coronavirus on the aid-dependent economy, the central bank governor said on Tuesday. […]The kingdom’s economy has suffered since it closed its borders nearly a month ago, followed by a tight lockdown that has shuttered businesses and paralysed public life. – Reuters 
​
Algeria, under pressure to find new sources of finance, set up a religious body in charge of Islamic finance on Tuesday in a final step towards launching sharia-compliant services. […]The government is targeting local savers rather than foreign investors as many Algerians distrust the country’s state banks and prefer to keep large sums of money at home. – Reuters 

Ramy Aziz writes: The question of growing Russian and, to a lesser extent, Chinese influence in North Africa is not a new issue, but the visible fissures within the European Union given the strain of coronavirus also suggest a potential shift in its attitudes towards conflicts in the Middle East where the EU and Russia have clashed. As Europe struggles, Italy may be inclined to support—or at least remain neutral on—increased Russian and Chinese influence in countries like Libya and Syria. – Washington Institute ​

Leak Reveals Jihadists’ Weakening Grip in Syria’s Idlib by Sam Heller

Can Saudi Arabia win the oil price war?
Nikolay Kozhanov

MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE Winter 2019 Issue

U.S. Must Be Wary as Iran’s Parliament Veers Hard Right
Nicholas Carl 
Principlists—often called hardliners in the West—are regaining influence in key institutions and trying to undermine so-called moderates. Iran will likely transition from relative moderates to principlists controlling all three branches of government by mid-2021. Expanding hardliner control will facilitate increasingly aggressive and authoritarian Iranian behavior while exacerbating economic turmoil and domestic dissent.
Read the full article here.

• ​The al Houthi Movement
  
• The Salafi-Jihadi Movement in Yemen

Last month marked five years since the start of the Saudi-led coalition air campaign in Yemen. The Critical Threats Project has closely tracked Yemen since before the current conflict began. Included below are recommended reads to deepen your understanding of Yemen and the ongoing war.

• Yemen File: 2019 in Review | December 2019
• Questions for the Record: Taking the Lead Back in Yemen | Katherine Zimmerman | April 2019
• Yemen’s anti-al Houthi coalition is collapsing, and America’s Gulf partners are partially to blame | James Barnett | August 2019
• A New Model for Defeating al Qaeda in Yemen | Katherine Zimmerman | September 2015
• Yemen's Pivotal Moment | Katherine Zimmerman | February 2014

A new generation lays its predecessors' ghosts to rest
In Al-Monitor's latest longform, we look at young people throughout the Mideast who have been at the forefront of efforts to turn the page on decades of sclerotic and rigged politics in favor of a more democratic alternative.

Iraq’s president taps intelligence chief to form new government
Iraqi President Barham Salih has appointed Mustafa al-Kadhimi, director of Iraq's National Intelligence Service, as Iraq's next prime minister-designate after Adnan Al-Zurfi withdrew his candidacy.