CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR - CounterStrikeMedia

afghanistan: the long war

5/31/2016

Taliban militants overran several checkpoints in southern Helmand Province and killed at least 25 policemen over the past two days, officials said on Monday, in the first major assaults in the province since the insurgents named a new leader last week. – New York Times

Dozens of members of Afghan police forces have been reported killed over the past two days in heavy fighting in the southern province of Helmand. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Afghanistan's government has offered the new Taliban leader a choice: make peace or face the same fate as his predecessor, killed in a U.S. drone strike last week. But Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada is a hard-liner who has used his religious credentials to justify the Taliban insurgency that has killed or wounded tens of thousands of Afghan civilians as a "holy war" and his succession has inspired little hope for an end to the bloodshed. – Associated Press

A breakaway Taliban faction is willing to hold peace talks with the Afghan government but will demand the imposition of Islamic law and the departure of all foreign forces, a senior leader of the group said Sunday. – Associated Press

A fight is brewing in the Senate over special immigration visas for Afghans who assisted U.S. troops and diplomats during the Afghanistan War. – The Hill

A bipartisan group of Senate Armed Services Committee members is urging President Obama to announce a decision on U.S. troops levels in Afghanistan prior to NATO conferences this summer. – The Hill

Amid daily battles between government forces and Taliban insurgents, the number of Afghans who have fled their homes to other parts of the country has doubled since 2013 to 1.2 million people, according to a report released Tuesday by Amnesty International. – Washington Post

Amid the city’s swirling winds, construction crews work steadily to create a new downtown strip that, someday, will include high-rise office towers and thousands of new homes. That’s bad news for people like Nesar Ahmad Papalzai who have watched the rising property values in their city in western Afghanistan contribute to a chronic problem: land-grabbing. – Washington Post

india & gulf of oman, outflanking pakistan

5/31/2016

A little-noticed deal this month between India and Iran to develop an obscure port in the Gulf of Oman is offering a glimpse into just how dramatically last summer’s Iranian nuclear accord stands to upend South Asia’s geopolitical dynamics — as New Delhi pushes to expand its influence in nearby Afghanistan, outflank rival Pakistan and challenge Chinese dominance in the region. – Washington Times

How Pakistan Envisions Outflanking India

India’s plan to spend $500 million on a new port complex on Iran’s Indian Ocean coast caps a decade-long quest to find a way to get sorely needed supplies of energy. But the Chabahar port deal also offers India a way to outflank Pakistan and elbow its way into the economic and diplomatic jockeying that is reshaping Central Asia. – Foreign Policy

u.s. egyptian bilateral relations

5/31/2016

Washington Post

Fallujah III: u.s. coalition enters fallujah for the third time

5/30/2016

Islamic State militants fought back vigorously overnight and parried an onslaught by the Iraqi army on a southern district of the city of Falluja, the group's bastion near Baghdad, officers said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Iraqi forces pushed into the southern edge of Fallujah on Monday, enduring car bombs and sniper fire from Islamic State fighters determined to hold onto the strategic western city. – Washington Post

Militants unleashed a wave of attacks targeting commercial areas in and around Baghdad on Monday, killing at least 24 people, officials said as Iraqi troops poised to recapture the Islamic State-held city of Fallujah, west of Iraq's capital. – Associated Press

Iraqi special forces advanced to the edge of Fallujah on Monday but struggled to enter the city, where Iraqi and U.S. officials said Islamic State extremists were amassing civilians to serve as human shields. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Servicemen from the U.S.-led coalition were seen near the front line of a new offensive in northern Iraq launched on Sunday by Kurdish peshmerga forces that aims to retake a handful of villages from Islamic State east of their Mosul stronghold. – Reuters

Backed by their U.S.-led allies in the air, Iraqi forces on Monday began pushing into the city of Fallujah, which has been held by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria for more than two years, according to news reports. – The Hill

Iraqi government troops began storming the Islamic State-held city of Fallujah on Monday, army officials said, even as the jihadist group waged suicide attacks in the nearby Iraqi capital, Baghdad. – Los Angeles Times

Military campaigns against the Islamic State took place around three major cities controlled by the terror group over the weekend: Fallujah 40 miles west of Baghdad, Mosul in Iraq’s northernmost province, and Raqqa in Syria, ISIS’s capital. – Washington Free Beacon

Iraqi forces pushed into Fallujah today after completing operations to surround the city over the weekend. Iraq’s Counterterrorism Service, a group of elite commandos, are leading a three-pronged assault against the city with air support from the U.S. coalition, but some reports have raised concerns about the role of Iranian-backed Shia militias and the presence of IRGC commander Qassim Suleimani as Iraqi forces try to retake the Sunni city. Approximately 1,000 Islamic State militants are believed to be in Fallujah, and have prevented the estimated 50,000 civilians from fleeing.

In northern Iraq, Kurdish Peshmerga forces, also with U.S. support, began operations on Sunday to retake areas east of Mosul. The Peshmerga have reportedly captured three villages in the first day of the new offensive. Agence France-Presse reported seeing what appeared to be U.S. military advisors working with Kurdish troops, but local forces would not confirm the identity of the commandos. The Islamic State continued its campaign of frequent car bomb attacks today, killing 24 people in attacks on the neighborhoods of Shaab and Sadr City in Baghdad, and in Tarmiyah, north of the capital.

NYT Reports on how Iraqi forces are hitting the Islamic State

china's growth strategy & bilateral relations with pakistan's "growth corridor"

5/30/2016

Project Syndicate

Project Syndicate: Pakistan & China Bilateral Relations

modi economics & bangladesh

5/25/2016

United States Naval Institute USNI

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first two years in office haven’t included the overhauling of economic policy some had anticipated. Mr. Modi has turned out to be more of an economic policy tinkerer than the radical reformer some optimists had expected. – WSJ’s India Real Time

A fierce battle has erupted between two state enterprises over ownership of medium- and long-range surface-to-air missile systems that India is developing jointly with Israel. – Defense News

Islamic State is trying to ride a wave of religious radicalization by falsely claiming a spate of killings in Bangladesh, a government minister said, adding there was enough evidence implicating domestic militant groups. - Reuters

fallujah

5/25/2016

Iraqi forces pounded the city of Fallujah with artillery fire on Tuesday, as they sought to advance Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s offensive to reclaim a strategic area of Anbar province from the Islamic State militant group. – Washington Post

An elite Iraqi force that just led a mission to retake an Islamic State group stronghold near the Syrian border now has its sights set on getting Fallujah back into the hands of the government. – Military Times

Some U.S. officials believe the battle for Fallujah could be as ferocious and intense as ISIS’s months-long battle with Kurdish forces for control of the northern Syrian city of Kobani. In other words, while ISIS has generally not stuck around to fight major battles, Fallujah could be the exception. The city is the keystone to the jihadist threat in Iraq today much as it was during the nearly decade-long U.S. war there. – The Daily Beast

The Iraqi offensive to retake Fallujah threatened the lives of thousands of civilians trapped in the ISIS stronghold, the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross warned this week. – Military.com

the kurd's hit raqqa

5/25/2016

A Kurdish-led force backed by U.S. airstrikes launched an offensive on Tuesday to seize territory around the northern Syrian city of Raqqa, the first ground attack to directly challenge the Islamic State’s control of its self-proclaimed capital. – Washington Post

"bibi" installs his own at defense

5/25/2016

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finalized a deal to appoint Avigdor Lieberman as minister of defense and incorporate his Yisrael Beitenu party, which holds five seats in the Knesset, into the governing coalition. At an event announcing the coalition, both men said they were committed to reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians. A spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told Reuters, “What’s important is deeds not words.”

Becoming defense minister was Mr. Lieberman’s main condition for a deal that augments Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition by adding Yisrael Beiteinu to it. The move increases the government’s number of seats to 66, from a precarious 61, in the 120-seat Parliament. The addition of Yisrael Beiteinu also buttresses the hawkish image of a government already dominated by right-wing and religious parties. – New York Times

Middle East Forum

The Tower

new pakistan taliban leadership emerges

5/25/2016

Just days after a U.S. drone strike killed the leader of the Taliban, the insurgent group named his successor Wednesday in a move that appeared to signal a blow to peace efforts by Afghanistan’s Western-allied government. – Washington Post

When a drone strike killed Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour last week in Pakistan, analysts expected the Taliban to be plunged into a period of infighting as it sought to select a new leader. … The swiftness of naming Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada may speak to basic diplomacy, an effort to hold the Taliban's rank and file together. – Los Angeles Times

Afghan civilians who assisted the American-led coalition as interpreters, firefighters and construction workers are in danger of being harmed or killed by the Taliban if Congress cancels a program that allows them to resettle in the United States, according to the top American commander in Afghanistan. – Associated Press

Now, more than two years after a young Afghan couple from different sects, Zakia and Mohammad Ali, eloped against the wishes of their families, they arrived in New York City late on Tuesday on a 90-day visa granted by the American Embassy in Kabul. The couple plan to apply for asylum with the help of an international aid group. – New York Times

NYT

The Long War Journal (LWJ)

LWJ: The New Emir for Pakistan Taliban

National Review: A Change in U.S. Afghan Policy

Pakistan's Baluchistan

The U.S. drone strike that killed a top Taliban leader this week may be providing an opening for the Haqqani network, the al Qaeda-affiliated Pakistani terrorist group known for its highly coordinated and vicious attacks inside Afghanistan, to remold the Afghan insurgency in its own more violent and hard-line image. – Washington Times

sykes-picot dead at 100

5/25/2016

Project Syndicate

Project Syndicate: Reconciling the geopolitical imperatives of Sykes-Picot

why islamic civilization does not have civil society

5/25/2016

Rubin Center

the u.a.e. & operations in yemen

5/24/2016

“The U.A.E. Approach to Counterterrorism in Yemen” (Michael Knights, War on the Rocks)

“The fight against AQAP will continue to be dynamic: AQAP’s tribal coalitions against Yemen’s equivalents, AQAP’s civil-military operations against the government’s version. On May 17, AQAP signaled its chagrin at the U.A.E. role in southern Yemen by issuing a video directly threatening the Emiratis to cease involvement in the area. This is probably as good a signal as any that the Gulf coalition is doing something right against AQAP. In this fight the coalition, especially the United Arab Emirates, has shown itself to have certain characteristics, ideas, and experiences that have allowed it to be effective at fighting AQAP, at least so far. The Gulf States share language, culture, and religion with the Yemenis -- they have a similar mindset, and this matters a lot when undertaking tribal engagement and building coalitions. The United Arab Emirates has a particularly tight societal connection to the southern Yemenis and carries less historical baggage than the strained Saudi-Yemeni relationship. The coalition builds rough-and-ready proxy forces that are “good enough” to do the simple military tasks set for them. These forces are not over-engineered; they are built to be ready roughly on time and to do roughly what they’re told. After the fighting, they are put in charge of liberated areas. It remains to be seen how sustainable such solutions are, but they have proven effective at clearance and could be good enough for holding terrain.”

“The Interventionist Turn in Gulf States’ Foreign Policies” (Karen E. Young, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington)

“The Arab Gulf states are engaging a regional political landscape without a clear ideological or security center of Arab politics. The post-Arab Spring disorder has diminished Egypt’s traditional claim to that role, while the civil war in Syria has permeated Turkish domestic politics and security, weakening President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ability to project an alternative model of (participatory) political Islam to the wider region. The environment is providing a sense of legitimization of the particular Arab Gulf model of political economy: authoritarian governance with liberal economies, often dominated by state-related entities that invest in infrastructure and real estate, subsidized with imported labor and cheap energy costs. This is the logic behind a rising, or emerging, Gulf model of political economy, or at least one that Gulf leaders are keen to project. However, this model is being challenged by the prolonged decline in the price of oil, driven by higher supply from non-OPEC producers and a slowdown by Asian consumers, mainly a decrease in Chinese demand for oil. As much as 70 percent of Gulf countries’ fiscal revenue derives from oil exports, as prices are down from $52 per barrel in 2015 (a low from the boom times of over $100 per barrel in 2013) with forecasts by Moody’s and other energy analysts to remain below $40 per barrel through 2017. This drastic decline in revenue, after a decade of hyper economic and population growth, is creating major structural challenges to government outlays in public services, subsidies, and employment. Some analysts describe this period in Gulf domestic politics as a renegotiation of the existing social contract. At the least, it is a reconsideration of the appropriate role of the state in the economy, including the provision of social welfare to citizens combined with a forward vision of the appropriate economic and social integration of noncitizens.”

u.k. chatham house on Iraq, fallujah & mosul

5/24/2016

The Daily Beast: Fallujah & Mosul Assault

In Iraq, the government’s effort to retake Fallujah continues today. A force that includes the army, federal police, SWAT teams, and Shia militias have retaken a cement factory in Harariyat, outside the city, and are pressing toward the city. “Now the enemy is collapsing, and we are hunting them,” a commander of the federal police told the Washington Post. U.S. and Iraqi airstrikes have targeted Islamic State positions in the area, but U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said yesterday that Iraq has not requested additional support for the operation. As Iraqi forces advance closer to the city, many civilians are at risk. Residents of the city told USA Today that the Islamic State has placed the city under a curfew and is moving civilians to the city center as human shields.

“Fallujah Offensive Will Lay Bare Need for Local Support” (Lina Khatib, Chatham House)

“With this sectarian tension in place, and given that thousands of Fallujah’s residents are part of the families of ISIS fighters, the Iraqi army’s attempt to break into Fallujah is likely to face fierce resistance that surpasses the challenges faced in the liberation of the city of Ramadi few months ago. And even if the army manages to overcome ISIS in Fallujah, it will find it difficult to hold the city without the cooperation of its residents. It is only when local residents are won over that any anti-ISIS military operation can be hailed as a success. But this formula is absent in Iraq today. The current government under Abadi desperately wants to increase its legitimacy through fighting ISIS. But the Iraqi army does not have enough capacity to tackle ISIS on its own, and has become dependent on the help of militias. The government’s blessing of the role of Shia militias in the fights against ISIS means that Sunnis still see it as continuing to discriminate against them. This resentment is in turn sustaining Sunni tribes’ embrace of ISIS in Fallujah and Mosul. Even if ISIS is defeated, the drivers behind people’s embrace of the group are likely to remain intact if not amplify.”

The Long War Journal (LWJ): Taking Fallujah

irak: fallujah & mosul, the campaign

5/24/2016

The Long War Journal (LWJ) cites Iranian High Command in Fallujah, Mosul possible U.S. connection on ground offensive.

U.S. sanctions Iranian leadership in Irak: LWJ

U.S. sanctions Iranian proxies in Lebanon.

USA Today: Video Fallujah, Mosul

Military Times: No U.S. advisors on ground in Fallujah

Iraqi forces backed by U.S. warplanes advanced on Islamic State fighters in Fallujah on Monday, commanders and officials said, in the opening salvo of a fresh offensive to retake the militant-held city where nearly 100 Americans died in the early years of the Iraq War. – Washington Post

[W]hen Marine Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was asked about the state of operations against the Islamic State terrorist group, he was blunt. He rejected the notion that he, Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter and other U.S. officials have adopted a strategy that is too reactive — gradually increasing the number of U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria whenever bad news dictates. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint

Pentagon officials say the U.S. is unlikely to deploy ground-level American combat advisers to support the Iraqi Army’s new operation to oust Islamic State militants from Fallujah. – Military Times

[E]ven as these troops seem within touching distance, they are a long way from retaking Mosul. What the maps do not show are the bitter rivalries, political ambitions and regional power struggles behind the forces gathered around Iraq’s second-largest city, hindering what will be one of the most important campaigns in the war against the jihadis. – Financial Times

Iraqi forces shelled Islamic State targets in Falluja on Tuesday, the second day of an assault to retake the militant stronghold just west of Baghdad. - Reuters

Even as Iraq slowly claws back territory from the Islamic State group, faith in the government is crumbling among many, particularly the country's Shiites, angered by political disarray and the continual pounding of the capital, Baghdad, by militants' bombings. – Associated Press

Michael Knights writes: Special operations, intelligence, smart thinking, and technology can meaningfully reduce the threat to Baghdad, keeping the militias under control and keeping the Mosul operation on track. This should be a priority for Iraq and its coalition partners. Because what, really, is the point of liberating Mosul, only to lose Baghdad in the process? – Foreign Policy

Max Primorac writes: In sum, the case for immediately extending U.S. military assistance to Iraq’s minority forces is justified by the gravity of ISIL’s genocidal campaign, its strengthening of Iraq’s military capacity to defeat ISIL, and as a political crucible for catalyzing a post-ISIL Iraq that is inclusive, stable and peaceful. – The Daily Caller

pakistani taliban hit: u.s. policy & bilateral relation

5/24/2016

The Long War Journal (LWJ): State Dept., refuses to admit anything. . .

Wash. Post: U.S. seeks to expand regional authority
NYT: Message sent to Pakistan

NBC: Afghan Emirs waiting for leadership role post Mansour, Who, if anyone, will take over the leadership of the Taliban in the after the killing of Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour? NBC News takes a look at the candidates and finds four potential emirs in waiting. The candidates include two famous sons: Sarjuddin Haqqani, scion of the powerful Haqqani clan and the son of famed 1980s Afghanistan warlord Jalaluddin Haqqani, and Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, the son of the deceased former Taliban emir, Mullah Omar. Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir and Mullah Sherin could also ascend to the group's top spot.

The death of the Taliban’s leader in a U.S. drone strike has scrambled discussions between the U.S. military and the White House over whether to let U.S. forces once again conduct offensive operations against the insurgent group in Afghanistan. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

The death of Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour could accelerate the breakup of a movement that ruled Afghanistan and gave sanctuary to al Qaeda before a U.S.-led invasion drove it from power in 2001, according to Afghans who track the group. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

The Obama administration’s decision to kill Taliban chief Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour in his Pakistani sanctuary signals that the White House has given up on peace talks for the moment and is willing to roll the dice on trying to undercut the insurgency by decapitating its leadership. – Foreign Policy’s The Cable

The Taliban’s “shadow governor” in southern Helmand province was killed in an airstrike, Afghan authorities announced Tuesday, but the insurgents immediately denied the report. – Stars and Stripes

U.S. President Barack Obama approved the drone strike that killed Mullah Akhtar Mansour because the Taliban leader was overseeing plans for new attacks on American targets in Kabul, the Afghan capital, U.S. officials said on Monday. - Reuters

Editorial: Mr. Obama’s eagerness to declare the war over by the time he leaves office has ceded the military advantage to the Taliban, and security has deteriorated significantly since 2014 in much of the country. Afghan leaders have been pleading for more support, and for a commitment of 10,000 or more U.S. troops into 2017 and beyond. Mr. Obama wants 5,500 or fewer, but the Pentagon may soon recommend more. Listen to your generals, Mr. President, and take the air battle to the Taliban wherever they are. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Editorial: Gen. John W. Nicholson Jr., the new commander in Afghanistan, is preparing a recommendation on troop and air deployments that is expected to be completed by next month. If Mr. Obama is serious about helping Afghanistan move toward peace, he will approve the general’s likely request for more airpower and an extended troop presence. – Washington Post

Ahmed Rashid writes: The killing of Mullah Akhtar Mansour, the Taliban leader, by American drone missiles in a remote corner of Pakistan has certainly broken the year-long deadlock over prospective peace talks between the Taliban and the Kabul government. However, this unprecedented US intervention has also forced neighbouring countries, the Taliban, al-Qaeda and other extremist groups to reset their strategies – Financial Times

The fact that the top official of Afghanistan’s Taliban was able to travel freely through Pakistan, and even into Iran, contradicted years of denials by Pakistani officials that they were harboring Taliban leaders. Mr. Obama offered no apology for the decision to strike Mullah Mansour in Pakistani territory, saying it was a simple case of self-defense. – New York Times

[O]ver the weekend, Obama again pulled the trigger, ordering the strike that killed Taliban leader Akhtar Mohammad Mansour in Baluchistan, far from the tribal belt. Now, some Pakistani leaders are rattled, saying they fear the United States is gearing up to bring the war in Afghanistan closer to Pakistan’s home front. – Washington Post

saudi low oil, yemen & diversification

5/23/2016

Persistently low oil prices appear to be taking a heavy toll on Saudi Arabia, spurring rare labor unrest as the kingdom’s rulers pursue radical changes to stabilize the economy. – Washington Post

An American military intelligence team remains on the ground in Yemen, supporting the Arab coalition battling al Qaeda's main faction in the country, amid an upswing in violence against the coalition and the country's armed forces – Washington Times

Suicide bombers targeting army recruits killed at least 45 and injured scores in the restive southern Yemeni city of Aden in two separate assaults, highlighting the obstacles to peace talks currently underway in Kuwait. – Washington Post

Yemeni troops killed 13 militants in a raid outside the southern city of Mukalla on Sunday in which two soldiers also died, the army said, extending a struggle to restore security in an area ruled until last month by al Qaeda. - Reuters

Todd Rosenblum writes: Rising security cooperation between Riyadh and Tel Aviv provides new opportunities for the U.S. to develop a broader security apparatus in the Middle East. But it also carries major risks that the U.S. will further lose influence in the region and leave our military and diplomatic leaders unprepared for future events. A less influential Washington would put U.S. security at risk, especially on countering terrorism and violent extremism threats to the homeland. - Politico

the afghan mission

5/23/2016

Military Times

Wash. Post: Obama's Fatalism in the Middle East

An American drone strike in a restive province of Pakistan killed Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour, the leader of the Afghan Taliban, the White House confirmed on Monday. – New York Times

The U.S. drone strike thought to have killed Taliban chief Akhtar Mohammad Mansour represents another escalation in U.S. involvement in the war in Afghanistan by trying to cripple an insurgent group that has for years found refuge on Pakistani soil. – Washington Post

The Afghan government is giving financial and military support to a breakaway Taliban faction, according to some Afghan and U.S. coalition officials, in an effort to sow rifts within the insurgency and nudge some of its leaders toward peace talks. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Afghanistan’s conflict is beginning to look more like a messy civil war than a straightforward struggle between the government and its Taliban enemies, judging from an outbreak of violence in recent days. – New York Times

As President Obama prepares to make his final major decision about the U.S. military mission in Afghanistan, there's a growing sense he is likely to halt a planned withdrawal of American troops and let the next president decide how to end the 15-year-old war. – Military Times

A passport found at the site of a U.S. drone attack targeting Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour bears the name of a Pakistani man named Wali Muhammad and carries a valid Iranian visa, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry said on Sunday. - Reuters

NATO foreign ministers and alliance partners have agreed to extend the Resolute Support mission that trains, advises and assists Afghanistan's security forces and institutions beyond 2016. – Associated Press

General David Petraeus, USA (Ret.) and Michael O’Hanlon write: Simply waging the Afghanistan air-power campaign with the vigor we are employing in Iraq and Syria—even dropping bombs at a fraction of the pace at which we are conducting attacks in those Arab states—will very likely make much of the difference between some version of victory and defeat. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Max Boot writes: If the Mullah Mansour is not a one-off operation, and if Obama approves a wider air campaign, Afghan forces, with U.S. help, can take advantage of a period of disorientation and confusion in the Taliban ranks to make real gains against the group. If Obama maintains the current, restrictive rules of engagement, then this will be a wasted opportunity and the Taliban will be back to business as usual as soon as a successor to Mansour is appointed. - Commentary

Bruce Riedel writes: The death of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mansour in an American drone strike is a significant but not fatal blow to both the Taliban and their Pakistani Army patrons. The critical question Afghans and Pakistanis are asking is whether this is a one-off or the beginning of a more aggressive American approach to fighting the war in Afghanistan. – The Daily Beast

South/Central Asia
A doctor in western Bangladesh was killed by machete-wielding assailants as he rode to his clinic on Friday morning, the police said, the most recent in a string of such attacks in the country. – New York Times

Voters in Tajikistan went to the polls in a referendum Sunday that could pave the way for President Emomali Rahmon to solidify his hold on power and cement his crackdown on moderate Islamic opponents. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

The party run by the fabled Gandhi dynasty, which has led the world's largest democracy for most of its existence, suffered humiliation last week when it lost Assam to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in a state election. Congress had controlled Assam, in India's northeast, since 2001, and for the nationalist BJP it was a first. The race was not even close, underlining the crisis facing the mother-and-son team of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. - Reuters

iran moving to force projection

5/23/2016

AEI

india builds iranian port

5/23/2016

India announced a $500 million deal to invest in the strategic Chabahar port in Iran, as well as other investments in oil and gas industries; the arrangement will facilitate trade routes that bypass Pakistan.

fallujah, mosul: the hit job

5/23/2016

Fallujah next. Embattled Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi went on TV Sunday night to announce the start of operations to finally push the Islamic State out of the city of Fallujah, which the group has held for over two years. The city sits just 30 miles west of Baghdad, and has been used as a launching point for some of the deadly car bomb attacks which have killed scores of mostly Shiite civilians in the capital over the past two weeks.

But the fight will be tough. And complicated. There are still tens of thousands of Sunni civilians trapped in the city, and the assault will be conducted by the mostly Shiite army, police, counterterrorism forces, along with local tribal fighters and a coalition of mostly Shiite militias, some with some pretty series Iranian backing.

Iraqi troops began their assault to retake the city of Fallujah today. The attack will include the Iraqi military, U.S. air support, local tribal fighters, and Shia militias, but the Shia groups may be allowed to operate only outside the city. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi urged civilians to leave the city if possible but the Islamic State has killed people who have attempted to flee; the government has asked the remaining 60-90,000 civilians to identify their homes with white flags. In Baghdad, Abadi spoke to President Barack Obama by phone and the two men stressed the need for greater security for the Green Zone after protesters breached the security cordon again on Friday. Government forces tried to disperse the crowds with tear gas, water cannons, and by shooting in the air; medical personnel said 58 people were wounded in the riot. Moqtada al-Sadr, the cleric who has organized the rallies, said peaceful protests will continue and that "the revolution will take another form" if they are blocked.

NYT

Iraqi forces have begun an assault on Falluja, a city that has been held by the Islamic State longer than any other in Iraq or Syria, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said in a televised speech on Monday. – New York Times

In a violent escalation of Iraq’s political crisis on Friday, protesters breached Baghdad’s Green Zone, the secure hub of government, storming the prime minister’s office as security forces fired tear gas at demonstrators and live ammunition in the air. – New York Times

Iraqi forces clashed with Islamic State militants near Falluja on Monday while bombing central districts in the initial hours of an offensive to retake the militant stronghold just west of Baghdad that could take several weeks. - Reuters

Iraq's border crossing with Jordan is expected to open in about two weeks, after an almost year-long closure, allowing for a resumption of vital trade and a return of Iraqi refugees, an Iraqi diplomat said Saturday. – Associated Press

David Ignatius writes: Votel and MacFarland are trying to accelerate a campaign that had seemed, at times, to be foundering. They’re more open to the media, as illustrated by our trip here, and they’re working harder to coalesce the elements of the U.S.-led coalition. Their goal is to stress the Islamic State on many fronts at once — preparing assaults on Mosul, Fallujah and other strongholds. The multi-pronged strategy, said Votel, reflects “the virtues of simultaneity.” – Washington Post

pope meets sunni leader of cairo university

5/23/2016

Pope Francis met on Monday with Sheik Ahmed el-Tayyib, the grand imam of Cairo’s Al-Azhar Mosque and a prominent figure in Sunni Islam.

Yahoo News

pakistan high command encircled, gives up mullah mansour taliban leader

5/22/2016

NYT Video Obama Press Conference Vietname on Drone Strike

The Long War Journal LWJ

LWJ

Brookings Institution: Bruce Riedel

BBC Pashtun/English
NYT

The White House confirmed on Monday that Mohammed Akhtar Mansour, leader of the Afghan Taliban, died in a U.S. drone strike over the weekend.

The United States had “removed the leader of an organization that has continued to plot against and unleash attacks on American and coalition forces,” President Barack Obama said in a statement, during a visit to Vietnam. “Mansour rejected efforts by the Afghan government to seriously engage in peace talks and end the violence that has taken the lives of countless innocent Afghan men, women and children.”

The strike hit Mansour in Pakistan’s province of Baluchistan — a rare location for U.S. drone strikes. Recent U.S. strategy has focused on allowing Afghan forces to carry out day-to-day operations against the Taliban. But Mansour represented a special threat to the United State and its forces, Obama said.

A U.S. defense official told Foreign Policy that the strike was “conducted under self-defense authorities,” since Mansour was “engaged in actions that directly threatened U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan.”

Mansour took charge of an increasingly fissured Taliban in July of 2015, after Afghan intelligence revealed that the previous leader, Mullah Omar, had been dead for two years.

Pakistan’s role. It’s unclear how Pakistan will react to the strike, as it comes after months of failed Pakistani efforts to broker peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. Just last week, Sartaj Aziz, Pakistan’s foreign minister, told diplomats from Afghanistan, the U.S., and China that the revelation last August that Taliban founder Mullah Omar had been dead for more than two years “not only scuttled the Afghan peace process, it also let to the splintering of the Taliban.” And despite Pakistan’s influence on the group, they had been unable to get things back on track.

The New York Times reports that Pakistani officials were alerted to the strike only after it happened, and the operation is “seen as a signal that the Obama administration was growing less patient with Pakistan’s failure to move strongly against the Taliban insurgency. While Pakistan’s powerful military establishment has quietly cooperated with the C.I.A.’s campaign of drone strikes against Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban in the northwestern tribal areas, it has refused past requests from the spy agency to expand the drone flights into Baluchistan.”

israeli house cleaning

5/20/2016

NY SUN

The Israeli minister of defense Moshe Yaalon resigned on Friday, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved to replace him with a relatively hawkish and inexperienced politician. Yaalon, who had tempered Netanyahu’s sometimes contentious relationship with the Obama administration, warned of a growing extremism in Israel as he announced his resignation. "The State of Israel is patient and tolerant toward the weak among it and minorities,” said Yaalon in a televised address, “But to my great regret extremist and dangerous elements have overrun Israel as well as the Likud party, shaking up the national home and threatening harm to those in it." Just 27 percent of Israelis favor Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu’s presumptive nominee, as defense minister, while 51 percent think Yaalon is best suited for the job. Yaalon said in his address that he would return to “contend for Israel’s national leadership.”

“Reckless politicking: Lieberman to be named Israel’s defense minister” (Natan Sachs, Markaz)

“In what can only be considered brilliant politicking—and reckless policy—Netanyahu jettisoned Ya’alon and Herzog in favor of his former associate and bitter personal rival, Lieberman. Herzog is left wounded and humiliated, played for a fool—the gravest sin in Israeli political culture. Netanyahu finds himself at the helm of an enlarged coalition (Lieberman brings with him five members of Knesset, after one member of his faction left the party today in protest of the move), safer from parliamentary shocks and from attacks from the right (the whole right wing is now inside the coalition. Lieberman will still likely criticize Netanyahu from within the government, but not quite as fiercely).”

Martin Kramer, The American Interest & blog 'Sandbox': The Israeli's & Sykes-Picot Agreement

indian elections & taliban c.o.i.n. progress

5/20/2016

AEI: The Failure of India's Congress Party

The governing Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies won power in the state of Assam on Thursday, the group’s first triumph in the country’s remote northeast and a morale-raising victory after two dispiriting electoral defeats. – New York Times

Afghanistan must limit military gains by the Taliban and offer incentives to the insurgents to revive a faltering peace effort, Pakistani's top foreign ministry official said, after the latest round of talks yielded little progress. - Reuters

Sadanand Dhume writes: Predicting the future of Indian politics is risky. Five years ago, Congress seemed impregnable and the BJP in terminal decline. But one thing is clear: Pulling his party out of its current tailspin will require a degree of political skill that Mr. Gandhi has yet to reveal. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

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