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Southwest Asian News:  Pakistan Hits Hekmatyar & Ramadan Blast in Kabul

5/31/2017

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A truck bombing near the Afghan presidential palace early Wednesday killed at least 80 people and wounded hundreds, officials said. The death toll seemed certain to rise, and the attack appeared to be one of the bloodiest of the long Afghan war. – New York Times
 
Gunmen in northwestern Pakistan on May 30 gunned down a close aide and relative of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, an Afghan militant leader who signed a peace deal with the government last year, officials said. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
 
Nawaz Sharif has ordered power companies not to cut electricity supplies in the hours before or after the daily Ramadan fast, as outages in the first few days of the Muslim holy month threaten to embroil Pakistan’s prime minister in a political crisis. – Financial Times
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Egyptian Christian Copts Tell Islamists "We're Staying Put"

5/31/2017

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Samuel Tadros writes: Many Copts insist that they will never leave Egypt. The terrorists will not win, they proclaim, and the Lord who protected his people throughout these centuries will continue to shield them. But the Coptic exodus from Egypt is unfolding in front of our very eyes…With trends increasing both as a result of persecution in Egypt, and the increasing ability of immigrant Copts to bring relatives once they settle down, it is not unforeseeable that, in another 50 years, half the Coptic population will be living outside of Egypt’s borders. – Washington Post
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Child Marriages & Cholera In Starved yemen

5/31/2017

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Cholera deaths in war-torn Yemen have surged into the hundreds, more than a quarter of Yemenis face famine, and parents are selling girls into marriage to buy food, the United Nations said on Tuesday. – New York Times
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Iraq:  The Slog Continues

5/31/2017

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The Pentagon on Tuesday warned the Iraqi militias fighting alongside Iraqi forces to liberate the Islamic State-held city of Mosul to fall in line behind commanders in Baghdad, amid rising sectarian tensions between Iranian-backed Shia militias and Kurdish peshmerga in the war-torn country. – Washington Times
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Iranian Nuclear Parity

5/31/2017

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David Albright and Olli Heinonen write: Iran says it has initiated mass production of advanced centrifuges. Taken at face value, this statement implies that Iran could be in material breach of the nuclear deal. The mass production of these centrifuges (or their components) would greatly expand Iran’s ability to sneak-out or breakout to nuclear weapons capability or surge the size of its centrifuge program if the deal fails or after key nuclear limitations end. The United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) need to determine what Iran is doing and provide assurance that Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing is consistent with the nuclear deal. – Institute for Science and International Security
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Invisible Armies:  History of Guerrilla War

5/31/2017

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Kabul Rocked During Ramadan

5/31/2017

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AFGHANISTAN: Kabul Bombing Kills at Least 80 
By Mujib Mashal & Fahim Abed, The New York Times: “A truck bombing near the Afghan presidential palace early Wednesday killed at least 80 people and wounded hundreds, officials said. The huge explosion caused panic in much of central Kabul, shattering windows as far as a mile away.”
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BAGHDAD ROCKED WITH RAMADAN HIT:  SCORES DEAD

5/31/2017

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The Long War Journal
The Taliban On Obligatory Need To Bomb During Ramadan
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American Deficit Regarding Understanding Iranian Ambitions

5/31/2017

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AEI
The Future of Iranian Power
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Indigenous Afghan islamic Scholars Targeted

5/30/2017

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Mawlawi Hanafi joined a rapidly growing list of Islamic religious scholars who have become casualties of the Afghan war. The scholars have long been targets, of one kind or another, in Afghanistan. Their words carry weight across many parts of society, and they are assiduously courted for their support — and frequently killed for their criticism. – New York Times
 ​
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Moscow Re-Building The Great Mosque of Aleppo

5/30/2017

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Russia, Syria’s contractor: The rebuilding of the culturally significant Great Mosque of Aleppo, destroyed by fighting in April 2013, has become a symbol of Moscow’s influence. Sami Moubayed writes that Russia is determined not to give Saudi Arabia, Qatar or Turkey any of the reconstruction work, arguing that the honor of rebuilding Syria belongs to the Kremlin and its friends. READ THE STORY HERE
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Eastern Syria key To Winning "The Long War":  Enveloping Iran, Closing Down Jihadi's & Saving Israel

5/29/2017

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If Trump Wants to Fight Iran, He’ll Soon Get the Chance in Syria 
By Henry Meyer & Nafeesa Syeed, Bloomberg: “In Washington, Moscow and Tehran, as well as Damascus and Ankara -- are looking beyond the coming showdown with the jihadists. When they’re killed or driven out, who’ll take over? It’s an especially sharp dilemma for President Donald Trump. Because for the second time this century, the U.S. risks defeating one Middle Eastern enemy only to see another one, Iran, emerge as the big winner.”
Middle East Forum
This vast and often hilly expanse along Turkey’s southern border has become the rebels’ final redoubt. In the coming months, it could become the sternest — and the bloodiest — challenge for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces as they battle to control areas they lost to rebel fighters after the country’s 2011 uprising. – Washington Post
Syria Does NOT EXIST:  CENTER FOR ISLAMIC PLURALISM
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Pakistan Sows Discord In Kashmir For Distraction

5/29/2017

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Kashmir, tensions again: In the latest iteration of this long-running border conflict, India and Pakistan are now engaged in a media war with each claiming to “expose” the other’s “lies”. E Jaya Kumar reports that they have been releasing tit-for-tat military videos purportedly showing military action in the disputed Kashmir region, with both Islamabad and New Delhi looking to boost domestic support. READ THE STORY HERE
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Syria Is The New Afghanistan

5/26/2017

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The Syrian State Fractured Beyond Repair
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Pakistani Chinese Relations Going Badly

5/26/2017

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Islamic State fighters executed two Chinese nationals who were kidnapped from southwestern Pakistan last month, the group claimed Thursday, a development likely to raise concerns about the security of foreign nationals in Pakistan. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Silk Road troubles: A fresh wave of terror assaults in Pakistan’s restive Balochistan has been carried out by militants determined to disrupt the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. F.M. Shakil reports that in the last two weeks, thirty-eight people have been killed, scores more injured and now two Chinese workers have been kidnapped. READ THE STORY HERE
Silk Road murders: Chastened by the Islamic State’s claim to have kidnapped and killed two Chinese teachers, Pakistan is beefing up security for China’s ‘Silk Road pioneers’. Drazen Jorgic and Jibran Ahmad report that Beijing, after pledging around US$57 billion to build power plants, railways, and roads that will connect western China with Pakistan’s Arabian Sea port of Gwadar citizens, now has 5,000 of its nationals working in the country. READ THE STORY HERE
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What Drives Suicide Bombers

5/25/2017

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Jerusalem, Israel & memories of 1967 War

5/25/2017

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Middle East Forum:  Backgrounder Six Day War
George Melloan:  NY SUN
Daniel Pipes:  50 Years After the Six Day War
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Gulf States, Saudi Monarchy & Trump Re-Emerging

5/25/2017

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Katherine Zimmerman writes: Al Qaeda, ISIS, and the global Salafi-jihadi movement — all of which share the same base ideology — strengthen through their ability to generate popular support. Conditions in the Middle East and throughout the Muslim world are facilitating that support and thereby strengthening al Qaeda, ISIS, and the movement. Counterterrorism actions disrupt active threats, but will not defeat the movement. It is time to find a new way to fight this war. – The Hill
Saudi Arabia has emerged from President Donald Trump’s visit with a geopolitical coup: The trip’s elaborate choreography validated the kingdom’s longstanding—and controversial—desire to be seen as the leader of the Muslim world. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
The White House is describing President Donald Trump’s first dose of Middle East diplomacy as a “historic” success, but some lawmakers are skeptical that optimistic rhetoric will become policy, and at least one is looking to block a major announcement from the trip. – Roll Call
 
Qatar complained that its state news agency had been hacked in a mischievous attempt to misrepresent its emir as a backer of Islamist groups. But, despite the Qatari entreaties, media in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have continued to cite the supposed comments by Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. – Financial Times
 
Newt Gingrich writes: Journalists and Washington bureaucrats, who are so deeply embedded in the establishment that they can’t see out of it, may see Trump’s call to action as a distracting sideshow from a status quo they can’t imagine changing. And yet this week, it already has. Foreign leaders and the American people alike can see in this trip the core of a new, reality-based foreign policy. – Washington Post
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Russian-Syrian Collusion & Operational Tempo Rising

5/25/2017

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The U.S. military and Russia have stepped up their communication about operations over Syria to include dialogue between U.S. and Russian generals in the Middle East, said the top Air Force general in the region. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint
 
A U.S. air raid against Iranian-backed fighters in southern Syria last week represents a volatile new phase of the conflict that could trigger a wider confrontation between the United States and Iran — and their allies on the ground. – Foreign Policy
 
U.S. and Russian forces operating in Syria have increased the use of the deconfliction hotline — a communication line opened to avoid midair collisions and reduce the potential for miscalculation by forces operating in Syria, according to Air Force Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, commander of U.S. Air Forces Central Command. – Military Times
 
The top U.S. general running the air war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria says Russian-declared no-fly zones are not restricting where the U.S.-led coalition can fly its warplanes as it targets the terror group. – Washington Examiner
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Pakistan Ready To "TAKE ON" INDIA

5/25/2017

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Defense One
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Doomed To Succeed:  Dennis Ross & The American Agenda To Support Peace In Near East

5/24/2017

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For 15 years, Saudi Arabia has been pitching its formula for peace among Israel, the Palestinians and the Arab world, with little response from Israeli leaders. And for months now, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asserted Israel’s increasing strategic alignment with Persian Gulf states over their shared enmity toward Iran. But it took President Trump just a couple of hours after he landed in Israel on Monday to suddenly and quite publicly combine those two ideas as the centerpiece of his plan for a peace deal. – New York Times
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The Israeli 6 Day War Turns 50

5/24/2017

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MEF
Obama's Legacy & The Road to Iran
Bret Stephens & 1967 War
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Pakistan's Proxy Retuns Home:  Hekmatyar

5/22/2017

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  • O’Hanlon: Afghan problem not just more US troops
  • Michael O’Hanlon: The Asia-Pacific Rebalance and beyond
  • Trump admin split on adding more troops to Afghanistan
Taliban Make Gains in Southeast Afghanistan
America's Afghanistan Problem
By Michael O'Hanlon, The National Interest: “President Trump made clear in Sunday’s Riyadh speech that America stands by countries willing to fight Islamist extremism. A welcome opportunity to revisit our relationship with two ostensible allies, Turkey and Qatar.” ​
Michael O’Hanlon writes: In other words, in Afghanistan today, rather than talk of cutting forces further, the United States needs to first go back to the future—or perhaps it’s more accurate to say, go forward to the past—and redo the phase of the mission that it unwisely skipped in 2015 and 2016. By “escalating to deescalate,” the United States may not achieve a brilliant victory in Afghanistan, but it can improve significantly the odds of avoiding defeat, and of shoring up its eastern flank in the broader fight against extremism and terrorism. The proposal before Trump makes good sense and is worthy of serious consideration. – The National Interest
In a two-pronged attack in a southern Afghan province, the Taliban shelled the provincial capital city with rockets and then raided police outposts in a neighboring district, killing at least 20 officers and wounding six others, officials said on Sunday. – New York Times
 
In the dark of night and amid a criminal investigation into rape accusations against him, Afghanistan’s embattled vice president, Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, left for Turkey on Friday in what Afghan and Western officials suggested could be another long exile for the former warlord. – New York Times
 
When the fugitive warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar returned home to a lavish official welcome last month, abandoning his 16-year insurgency and forgiven for a history of wartime abuses, he was ­expected to quickly take up the cause of peace and set a conciliatory example for Taliban insurgents.  Instead, the fiery Islamist leader has landed like a bombshell in the roiling world of Afghan politics, publicly insulting President Ashraf Ghani, reneging on a pledge to disarm several thousand loyal fighters, and leaving the stunned capital wondering if inviting him back was a huge mistake. – Washington Post
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The Exhaustion of Iran by Its Mullah's

5/22/2017

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Ray Takeyh writes: The Islamic Republic was an ideological experiment born in a century that witnessed so many attempts to bend human will to whims of vanguards of history. The revolution has now exhausted itself, and cannot meet either the material needs or the political aspirations of its constituents. The theocratic regime insists on marching toward the dustbin of history and the only question remains whether America can hasten that march. - Politico
Josh Rogin reports: Despite President Trump’s reluctance to get deeply involved in the Syrian civil war, the United States now finds itself in the middle of an escalating battle in the country’s south that last week led to a clash between the U.S. military and Iranian-backed pro-government forces. If he can seize the opportunity, Trump could deal a blow to Iranian regional influence and help save Syria in the process. – Washington Post
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Trump's Saudi Speech & Daniel Pipes' White House Commission on Islamism

5/22/2017

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Hirsi Ali:  Trump, Riyadh & Islamism
Daniel Pipes
What Trump Needs To Tell The Middle East
Why Are Israeli's & Saudi's Coming Together
Elliott Abrams writes: This visit to Riyadh has cemented old friendships and showed the Sunni Muslim world that we are on their side against Iran and its dreams of Shia hegemony. It offered American help in the military, intelligence, and police actions needed against terrorism. But it offered no explanation of the origins of terrorism and extremism, and no suggestions as to how we and our Muslim allies can change those conditions so that the terrorists do not gain new cadres every year. – National Review Online
  • FPI’s Kagan + Kristol, John Yoo, and Krauthammer on Trump
Editorial: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said during a visit to Saudi Arabia last month that the administration sought a political solution in Yemen, but he did not publicly oppose an offensive against Hodeida. A stand-down there ought to be the first return on the revamped relationship Mr. Trump has bought into. Otherwise, Saudi Arabia really will be taking unfair advantage of the United States. – Washington Post
 
Philip Gordon writes: The Saudis and others in the region should be careful about hitching their stars too closely to the Trump wagon. In the short run, Trump may say what they want to hear and offer some marginal additional support on policy issues. In the longer run, he is likely to prove an unreliable partner whose incompetence, disloyalty and unpopularity could prove costly to all concerned. – Washington Post
 
Karen Elliott House writes: Mohammed bin Salman is confidently pushing ahead with ambitious plans to transform Saudi Arabia. Like Mr. Trump, the prince needs some clear wins over the next several years—an end to the costly Yemen war; successful privatization of Aramco, the national oil company, and other government companies set for public sale. He must persuade skeptical citizens that his plans will in coming years provide Saudis a prosperous life without dependence on oil. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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