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AEI CRITICAL FILE:  AFRICAN JIHADI & LIBYAN CIVIL WAR GRINDS ON

5/21/2020

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How America Can Avoid a War of Attrition with Iran
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This is what Washington can learn from Jerusalem’s Campaign Between the Wars.
In stunning reversal, Turkey emerges as Libya kingmaker
Russia grabs Mideast peace initiative from U.S. with talks offer
Debating Afghanistan  
Michael Rubin | AEIdeas

Force Pakistan to close Taliban sanctuaries with a deadline  
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner
Why Russia is losing its hold on Syria  By MK Bhadrakumar
Russia’s relationships with its client states have never been easy. Of course, managing client states is always a complicated exercise. The Kremlin’s closet is full of skeletons – Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968), Cuba (1962), Afghanistan (1980), Ukraine (2014) and so on. 

Read More
  • “Forecast: The African Salafi-Jihadi Movement After COVID-19” by Emily Estelle
  • “Eyes on the Other Global Crises” by Emily Estelle (Originally published in RealClearWorld)
  • “Salafi-Jihadi Ecosystem in the Sahel” and interactive graphic by Katherine Zimmerman
South Sudan:  Hundreds Killed in Inter-communal Violence.  Since Saturday, at least 287 people, including a Doctors Without Borders staff member, have been killed in a spat of inter-communal violence, according to authorities. The violence, which is taking place in the Jonglei state, broke out on Saturday between the Murle and Lou Nuer ethnic communities.  Over 300 people are believed to be wounded  In February, a treaty was signed to end the country’s six-year civil war.  
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Al Jazeera BBC  ​
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Yemen File 
AQAP did more than just inspire the Pensacola attack
  • The Salafi-Jihadi Movement: AQAP played an active role in the December 2019 Pensacola attack.
  • The al Houthi Movement: Al Houthis are now attempting to reach Ma’rib city from southern al Bayda governorate. 
  • Check out detailed analysis on:
    • The Salafi-Jihadi Movement in Yemen
    • The al Houthi Movement
“Al Qaeda’s role in the Pensacola shooting and what it means” | Katherine Zimmerman
Africa File
LIBYA 
Libya will fragment further as strongman Khalifa Haftar loses support. Turkish military support for forces aligned with the UN-backed government in Tripoli delivered a potentially decisive blow to Haftar’s yearlong campaign to seize Libya’s capital on May 18. Haftar’s domestic coalition is weakening and his primary foreign backers (the UAE, Egypt, and Russia) must decide whether to prop up his failing campaign. A renewed campaign for Tripoli could likely bring violence on a scale that Libya has not yet seen as external players pour military resources into the conflict. But even if this case is averted, the freezing or ending of the Tripoli campaign is unlikely to stabilize the country. Anti-Haftar players around Tripoli will likely return to fighting each other in the absence of an external foe. In the east, Haftar’s military rule could disintegrate and yield a war-within-a-war.

Unfortunately, Libya’s is far from the only crisis that is benefiting or will likely benefit the Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying economic crisis are putting unprecedented strain on many African states; governance will worsen in many cases, and the likelihood of instability and state collapse is rising. 
  • North Africa
  • West Africa
  • East Africa
 Libyan government forces further advance against rogue leader 
Libyan pro-Government of National Accord (GNA) forces said on Thursday they have captured a key town south of Tripoli, marking another advance against eastern forces led by military strongman Gen. Khalifa Hifter. The town of al-Asabaa lies on the road leading to the city of Tarhuna, Hifter’s main stronghold. Meanwhile, the GNA launched five airstrikes in Tarhuna, according to a military spokesman. Hifter’s self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) has suffered a series of setbacks in recent weeks, with forces loyal to the government taking control earlier this week of the key al-Watiya air base southwest of Tripoli. This comes as the LNA’s air force chief Saqer al-Jaroushi threatened to attack Turkish interests in Libya since Ankara has significantly helped the UN-backed government resist the LNA's year-long attack on the capital. In turn, Turkish foreign ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy warned that any attack on Turkish assets in Libya “will have very grave consequences.”
Read More  ​
On May 16, 2020, newly appointed Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi addressed the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) in a visit to their headquarters. He was received by the government appointee PMU Chairman Falih Al-Fayyadh and other PMU commanders including Kata’ib Hezbollah Commander Abu Fadak, whose militias accused Al-Khadhimi in April of conspiring with the U.S. on killing Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis. – Middle East Media Research Institute 
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Zvi Bar’el writes: Sissi is careful not to present Egypt as the leading country in the Middle East, but contrary to Saudi Arabia, he is adept at evading problematic arenas such as Syria and Yemen and at avoiding open confrontation with the United States, thereby protecting his status as everyone’s partner. Sissi will lose no sleep over the cost of maintaining that status in terms of human rights in Egypt. – Haaretz
Dr. Manjari Singh writes: In these cases, diplomatic shifts can ripple outwards. If Gulf tensions are diminished by coronavirus’s regional impact—as well as Iran’s great need in focusing on its domestic challenges, Gulf Arab leaders are less likely to be invested in pressuring Iran. In this case, a shift in the Gulf might provide an opening to renegotiating with Iran. – Washington Institute
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THE POLITICS OF NAKBA FOR ISRAEL & THE TALIBAN SCREW THE AMERICANS; SPHERES OF INTEREST FOR EURASIA

5/15/2020

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Netanyahu considers fourth elections, but ultra-Orthodox object
 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might be considering going to fourth elections, but his ultra-Orthodox allies won’t hear of that.
​Jerusalem, Jordan, and the Jews by Daniel Pipes
Israel Hayom
June 22, 2020

http://www.danielpipes.org/19600/jerusalem-jordan-and-the-jews
Israel's new government
Did Gantz Break the Blue and White Party
 In this week’s "On Israel" podcast, MK Ofer Shelah gives his thoughts on the recent unity government between Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party and Benny Gantz’s Blue & White Coalition.
Yossi Melman writes:  Netanyahu also remembers how Yitzhak Shamir’s government fell in wake of the first intifada. But today’s Netanyahu is different: more messianic, more anxious, more sure of himself, more eager to go down in history as the one who established “Greater Israel.” If this is really his position, he will also ignore the fact that Israel is in the grips of a major economic crisis and that annexation would mean realizing Yasser Arafat’s dream of one state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. – Haaretz

Amos Yadlin writes: And in any event, even if there were no costs for the annexation process, such a move is blatantly anti-Zionist and will prevent the possibility of future separation from the Palestinians while safeguarding Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure and moral state. – Ynet
Israel's Flight from South Lebanon 20 Years On
By Prof. Efraim Karsh and Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, May 22, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel’s May 2000 rushed evacuation of its security zone in south Lebanon and the desertion of its longstanding local allies there tarnished the Jewish State’s deterrent posture and helped spark a string of large-scale armed confrontations with Hezbollah (2006), the PLO (the so-called “al-Aqsa Intifada”), and Hamas (2008/9, 2012, 2014). The withdrawal transformed south Lebanon into an ineradicable terror entity that can harass northern Israel at will and expedited Hezbollah’s evolvement into a formidable military power armed with 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of reaching anywhere in Israel. It also dented the IDF’s fighting ethos and operational competence, as illustrated by its lukewarm performance during the Second Lebanon War (2006) and Operation Protective Edge (2014).

Continue to full article ->
Despite trial, Netanyahu's popularity soaring
Despite the opening of his trail, and despite failures in prior elections, the popularity of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu keeps soaring.
Israel and the Great Powers: The View from Beijing by Wang Jin
Middle East Quarterly
Spring 2020
 (view PDF)

https://www.meforum.org/60504/israel-and-the-great-powers-view-from-beijing
Putin appoints third special envoy to Syria
Putin's decision to appoint a new special envoy for developing relations with Syria likely has several aims, including to balance military and diplomatic involvement in Russia's Syria policy.
​The Return to the Era of Spheres of Influence in Eurasia
By Emil Avdaliani, May 21, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Geopolitical trends of the last two decades show that pivotal states in Eurasia are working to recreate their zones of influence. In so doing, they are challenging the US, which implies a corresponding challenge to the existing world order. Though Washington will be able to limit some powers’ ambitions, it has few tools with which to hamper the ambitions of Russia, China, and Iran.

Continue to full article ->
​Iran’s new push to erase its millennia of Jewish history
Alireza Nader
​A Peace Treaty Is Not a License to Extort
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, May 31, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: For years, Egypt and Jordan have exploited their peace treaties with Israel as a tool of extortion to prevent Israel from pursuing its security and political interests.
Continue to full article ->
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​The unlearned ‘nakba’ lesson about compromise
The Palestinians aren’t just reliving the “disaster” of their losing war to prevent Israel’s birth. By refusing to negotiate, they’ve ensured that their losses will continue to grow.

JONATHAN S. TOBIN
It’s not about Assad
Russia’s alleged displeasure with Assad and Iran in Syria has gotten a lot of attention recently in Western and some Arab media. Yet, saying that Moscow is having a change of heart at this very moment, let alone is willing to publicly broadcast this to Damascus, may be a bit premature.

Read blog post
Salafism Meets Populism: The Al-Karama Coalition and the Malleability of Political Salafism in Tunisia
Jasmin Lorch, Hatem Chakroun
Spring 2020 Issue
Gantz introduces Israel's first female ultra-Orthodox minister
Blue and White leader Benny Gantz has tapped legislator Omer Yankelevich as diaspora minister in the new unity government, the first ultra-Orthodox woman to lead a ministry.
​Decentralization push sparks fears of division in Iraqi Kurdistan
Sulaimaniyah’s pursuit of enhanced self-governance has stoked concerns over the Iraqi Kurds’ hard-won unity as economic woes strain their autonomous region.
PKK attacks Turkish military base in Kurdistan Region of Iraq
 The attack comes amid intra-Kurdish tensions in Iraq over the PKK's and Turkey's presence in the country.
Why transatlantic relations are in trouble
Dalibor Rohac | The American Interest
Biden’s Revival of Obama’s Middle East Policies Won’t Bring PeaceJust a rerun of past failures with the added disgrace of renewed American acquiescence to Palestinian terror
By
 JONATHAN S. TOBIN
The Jordan Valley Annexation Dilemma: A Realistic Approach
By Col (Res.) Dr. Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen, May 13, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The declared intention of the new Israeli government to pave the way for the implementation of sovereignty in certain parts of the West Bank, with the blessing of the Trump administration, is prompting vigorous debate. The dark prophecies by “liberal” Israelis as well as EU officials about the dire consequences that would result from annexation are exaggerated, and they obscure the vital strategic value of the Jordan Valley for Israel’s security.

Continue to full article ->
Siraj Wahhaj Seeks My Validation  by Daniel Pipes
May 12, 2020

http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2020/05/siraj-wahhaj-seeks-my-validation
Why there’s no justice for Malki Roth
The need to keep radicals and Islamists out of power in Jordan continues to foil efforts to force the extradition of an unrepentant Palestinian murderer.

JONATHAN S. TOBIN
Israel: The Settlements Are Not Illegal
The annexation of lands in Judea and Samaria is not contrary to international lawby Michael Calvo  
  • At the 2019 Jewish Leadership Conference, we were privileged to host former Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger for a conversation on what his distinguished career has taught him about great statesmen and able statesmanship.
  • Last December, we hosted leading foreign policy expert Walter Russell Mead for a wide-ranging conversation on American foreign policy and the Middle East.
  • Back in January 2019, Hudson Institute scholar Michael Doran took t0 the pages of our online publication, Mosaic, to provide the most comprehensive assessment of the Trump Administration's Middle East strategy anywhere on the web.
"Tunisia’s ‘war against an invisible enemy’," Benjamin Weinthal, FDD Policy Brief
AEI’s Michael Rubin: Iran's navy is dying a slow death
Iran has begun withdrawing forces from Syria, Israel’s departing defence minister Naftali Bennett said on Monday. Mr Bennett also urged his successor, Benny Gantz, to maintain pressure on Iran, saying Iran’s pull-out could be reversed. – The National

Ehud Yaari writes: When striving to subdue civilian populations, the Syrian army tends to rely on ranged firepower rather than infantry assaults. If these indiscriminate tactics are applied in Deraa, the death toll could be very steep.[…] In addition, these dynamics would pave the way for Iran to bolster its local proxies (e.g., “Battalion 313”) and entice unemployed youths to enlist by offering them salaries—perhaps including some of the 7,000 former rebels who used to receive assistance from the Israel Defense Forces. This could in turn give the IRGC and Hezbollah an opportunity to increase their own presence in Deraa’s western countryside facing the Golan, a longstanding Israeli redline. – Washington Institute

Ammar Shams Aldin writes: The notion of separation of powers in the constitution is designed to hinder the aggregation of political and economic power. Syria’s economy will continue to suffer until political power is constrained and directed toward limited objectives. The hope is that a new constitution, if taken seriously and properly implemented, will help Syria transition from a state whose institutions, rules, and policies depend on the dictates of its leadership to one where the distribution of power is restructured so that the lower levels of government can take on a greater role. – Middle East Institute

Against the backdrop of the high tension between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, the Saudi daily ‘Okaz published an unusually harsh article by Sattam bin Hadbaa mocking Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. […]Through this story, the writer implies that Erdogan, too, dreams of leading the world and renewing the glory of the Ottoman empire, but in reality he is more like a gang-leader who exploits the fools who admire him. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Bilal Y. Saab and Mick Mulroy write: It will not be easy for the GCC states. They cannot afford to increasingly challenge the current U.S. administration on Iran, because it might double down on its latest decision to withdraw some Patriot missile defense batteries from Saudi Arabia and pull out all American troops and equipment stationed on their territory. The U.S. already threatened to do that, had Saudi Arabia not stopped its recent oil price war with Russia. – Middle East Institute

​
Tom Rogan writes: China’s new rhetoric is simply about buying time. So, yes, we should expect more pleasant words from Beijing toward international organizations. But when it comes to the crunch, those words will be divorced from any significant positive action. As is always and ever the case with the Chinese Communist Party, it ultimately cares only about self-preservation. – Washington Examiner


Generation Jihad Ep. 10: Endless Jihad
Hosts Bill Roggio and Tom Joscelyn discuss the “endless wars” narrative, explaining why it is more accurate to call the conflicts unleashed by 9/11 an “endless jihad.”
Taliban ‘reluctant to publicly break with al Qaeda,’ Inspector General reports
According to a new report by the Lead Inspector General for Operation Freedom’s Sentinel, U.S. officials have assessed that the Taliban is "reluctant to publicly break with al Qaeda," while Pakistan continues to harbor senior Taliban leaders, including the Haqqanis. The report confirms that the Taliban went on the offensive following the Feb. 29 withdrawal agreement with the U.S.

​Taliban emir demands ‘Islamic government’ for Afghansitan
Mullah Haibatullah, the leader of the Afghan Taliban and its Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, again called for the establishment of an "Islamic government" and the imposition of the group's harsh versions of sharia
Who Really Represents America’s Jews?
A conflict over a new leader threatens a storied organization

by Jonathan S. Tobin
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TALIBAN HIT EXPOSES RIFT WITH PAKISTAN WHILE IRAN COLLAPSES SLOWLY; A LOOK AT JORDAN CONCERNING ISLAMIC SOVEREIGNTY & RUSSIA LEAVES HATFAR IN LIBYA

5/15/2020

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US Deports Al Qaeda Terrorist to India.  U.S. Intelligence officials announced Thursday that convicted Al Qaeda terrorist Mohammed Ibrahim Zubair, found guilty of raising funds for the terrorist organization in the United States, has been deported to India after completing his sentence.  Zubair, an engineer from Hyderabad, was arrested in 2011 on charges of terror financing.  He was convicted for raising money for Al Qaeda leader Anwar al-Awlaki in 2009.  He was deported along with 167 other Indian deportees.  The English Post International Business Times
Rival Afghan leaders strike a power-sharing deal, but there are plenty of other obstacles on the road to peace
There was no other way to end the political logjam in conflict-ridden Afghanistan than to make President Ashraf Ghani and outgoing Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah agree to share power. The deal has been welcomed by the international community, but there are deeper obstacles to the peace process. 

Read article
MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE Spring 2020 Issue
Israel steps up military campaign against Iran’s military entrenchment in Syria
Generation Jihad Ep. 8 – The Islamic State’s Foundational Texts
Analysis: The Islamic State’s ideological campaign against al-Qaeda
Analysis: Islamic State claims al-Qaeda started a war in West Africa
Analysis: Soleimani’s last will and testament
Turkey targets US-backed Syrian Kurdish peace talks
 Turkey is openly disgruntled over the US-backed effort to unite disparate Syrian Kurdish factions that kicked off last month.
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The Taliban Is Still the Main Driver of Violence in Afghanistan
Beijing is seeking to expel the US from the South China Sea
Jonathan Schanzer: Iranian Missiles "Likely to Be the Cause of the Middle East's Next War"
by Gary C. Gambill
May 12, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/60908/schanzer-the-cause-of-the-middle-easts-next-war
 https://www.meforum.org/60908/schanzer-the-cause-of-the-middle-easts-next-war
Karl Kaltenthaler writes: Despite the challenges, Iraq and the United States do have a viable framework for a strategic dialogue that they can build upon existing agreements. […]Iraq needs a United States committed to its security and the United States needs an Iraq that views the United States as a partner and friend. In any case, a strategic dialogue is the place to start and both sides have every reason to define a new relationship that can lead to a lasting strategic partnership. – Washington Institute ​
Zvi Bar’el writes: Over 20 years ago, a new generation of rulers, like the king of Jordan, the king of Morocco and the president of Syria fueled hopes that these young leaders, all in their thirties then, would institute democratic regimes (or at least regimes that were more open and transparent), that they would adopt policies to protect human rights and carry out major economic reforms. Now the next generation of leaders that includes 39-year-old Qatari ruler Tamim bin Hamad and 34-year-old Prince Mohammed is showing yet again that political tradition is stronger than any new spirit. – Haaretz
Mohammed Alshuwaiter writes: Legitimacy is the ultimate foundation of authority that confers on the government the right to enforce the law. If Hadi and his government continue on their current path, their legitimacy will vanish. Were that to happen, the people of Yemen would find themselves in a very complicated situation, facing the dilemma of how to agree on a new framework for legitimacy and plunging the country into yet more conflict. – Middle East Institute
A team of Western mercenaries linked with two Dubai-based companies was briefly deployed to Libya to assist Russian-backed strongman Khalifa Haftar in his offensive to capture Tripoli, according to a confidential UN report, underscoring how the country’s proxy war has become a magnet for hired guns. – Bloomberg
Tanya Goudsouzian writes: Among the Russians, the Chinese, the Iranians and the United States, it’s yet to be seen who will win. It may be a single victor or an uneasy accommodation among the syndicates dividing up the spoils. They may fight economically but cooperate diplomatically. But regardless of how those countries collude or compete, without a fundamental re-examination and reformulation of the military-forward approach employed, the winner is unlikely to be the US. – The National Interest
Rolling Back Iran in Iraq
By John Toolan Jr., RealClearDefense: "Iranian proxies in Iraq are pinning ISIS’s resurgence on the United States. Iran’s longtime goal has been to undermine America’s regional commitment and provoke U.S. attacks that draw Iraqi condemnation. The United States should avoid a tit-for-tat with Iran or its proxies and instead launch a concerted effort to roll back Iran’s military presence in the country."

Keep Expectations Modest for Iraq’s New Government
By Douglas A. Ollivant, War on the Rocks: "“Iraq is like a race car that has been neglected and repeatedly wrecked. Al-Kadhimi is not the race car driver. He’s the tow truck driver.”"
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ANALYZING IRAQI SHIA MILITIAS & RUSSIAN MERCENARIES IN LIBYA

5/7/2020

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Eli Lake writes: There is no single event that has caused Iran’s current loss of influence in Iraq. Nationwide protests against corruption and Iranian influence, as well as internal strife within and among Iranian-backed militias, helped Kadhimi’s rise. At the same time, Soleimani’s death was a factor. […]If that’s true, it’s a positive development — not just for Iraq but for the entire Middle East. – Bloomber
Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write: Despite worsening political acrimony, Kadhimi maintains broad Sunni and Kurdish support in Parliament and will likely be able to satisfy enough Shi’a blocs to ascend to the office of prime minister with a partial cabinet. Because of their shared interest in Kadhimi’s success, Iran and the US confined their competition to other lines of effort ahead of the June US-Iraq strategic dialogue, thereby creating enough space for Iraq’s political elites to negotiate government formation. – Institute for the Study of War
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Collecting and analyzing Shiite militia attacks against the U.S. presence in Iraq
Five Priorities for the U.S.-Iraq Strategic Dialogue
Include Recognizing Regional Role for Iraq

From Al-Monitor: “Kadhimi benefits from strong ties with all of Iraq's constituencies and power centers, as well as the goodwill of Washington, Tehran, the Gulf and all key regional capitals."
Don’t let ‘strategic dialogue’ sink Iraq
Michael Rubin | RealClearDefense
To simply repeat in Iraq the precipitous withdrawals Trump ordered in Syria and Afghanistan and President Obama oversaw in Iraq will empower Iran and undercut the most competent leadership team postwar Iraq has had.
  • Bloomberg’s Eli Lake: Iran is losing its grip in Iraq
  • WINEP’s Simon Henderson: Has Trump finally lost patience with the Saudis?
UN report finds evidence of Russian mercenaries deployed in Libya 
United Nations experts confirmed that a Russian private military contractor has recruited between 800 and 1,200 mercenaries to fight alongside Libya’s eastern military strongman Khalifa Hifter, according to a report obtained by the Associated Press. The panel of experts monitoring sanctions against Libya said the Wagner Group, which is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has mainly recruited Syrian fighters. This was the first UN confirmation of claims that Hifter is supported by hundreds of Russian mercenaries in his offensive against the UN-backed government in Tripoli, which in turn is supported by Syrian fighters recruited by Turkey.
Read More  
apnews.com
The U.S.-Iraqi Relationship Is Coming to a Head—and That’s a Good Thing
​
After 17 years, there is little love left between Washington and Baghdad. Upcoming talks may be the last opportunity to save their dysfunctional partnership.
  • This Afghan General fought the Taliban for years. Now he has joined them.
  • Indian and Chinese troops in scuffle on disputed border
  • WaPo’s David Ignatius: Russia’s scavenger diplomacy is in full effect in the Middle East
Jeremy Hodge writes: Moscow’s inability to control Iranian backed Syrian militiamen engaged in widespread crime, corruption, and assaults on Russian forces has infuriated the Kremlin. But Russia is not the only major player on the ground with scores to settle against Iran, and the Russian military leadership in Syria has ignored if not largely encouraged Israeli strikes on Iranian troops throughout the country. […]Ironically, Erdoğan’s long-held desire to overthrow Syria’s president may still come to fruition, albeit not as he expected, as Assad’s ouster may come at the hands of Russia itself, and not the revolution. – The Daily Beast 
​

Will Todman writes: Extremist groups would benefit from increased instability in Syria. They have already used Covid-19 to their rhetorical advantage to the detriment of the United States’ reputation in the region. Non-state actors in the Middle East, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, have filled gaps in state services to gain influence. […]Finally, the centralization of aid in Damascus would further degrade the principle of unimpeded humanitarian access and undermine U.S. leadership on the issue. This precedent could carry implications for humanitarian operations in other conflict areas. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Michael Rubin writes: Optimists may hope that Erdogan’s defeat in Istanbul last year signals that Turks can reclaim their country and that democracy can still check Erdogan’s desire to rule for life and perhaps turn the reins of power over to his son or son-in-law. But the lesson Erdogan appears to have taken is not that he must listen to the people, but rather, he must punish Istanbul and become more ruthless in weeding out political opposition, real or imagined. – Washington Examiner
​

Seth J. Frantzman writes: In the past, Iran has used Turkey to get around US sanctions and Iran has even sought to use Turkey as a transit for goods destined for the Syrian regime and Hezbollah. Much of that has changed during the Syrian civil war, but Iran’s overall goal in the region is to work with Turkey to divide up the Middle East. – Jerusalem Post
Benjamin Weil writes: Enforcing counterterrorism laws and laws regarding the funding of terrorist organizations are also crucial. […]If we let Hezbollah gain more power and influence in Lebanon it would lead to greater conflicts across the Middle East. Alternatively, if we wait to bail out the country at a point where Hezbollah is already too strong, Hezbollah might get the credit for the financial recovery – this will only fuel the organization’s credibility in the minds of the people. Much like the coronavirus, we must act now and act hard before we lose control of the situation. – Jerusalem Post
​

Danielle Pletka writes: Long story short, Lebanon’s slow-motion collapse promises repercussions few can bother contemplating when minds are focused on pandemic-related foreign policy. But the notion that the erstwhile Lebanese state is soon to become a hybrid Iranian-Chinese bot from which all with means flee, and to which all with malign aims flock, seems a catastrophe worth minding. If not, Lebanon promises to join the ranks of Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and others in becoming yet another nexus of global threat and local misery. – The Dispatch
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