Debating Afghanistan
Michael Rubin | AEIdeas
Force Pakistan to close Taliban sanctuaries with a deadline
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner
Michael Rubin | AEIdeas
Force Pakistan to close Taliban sanctuaries with a deadline
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner
Why Russia is losing its hold on Syria By MK Bhadrakumar
Russia’s relationships with its client states have never been easy. Of course, managing client states is always a complicated exercise. The Kremlin’s closet is full of skeletons – Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968), Cuba (1962), Afghanistan (1980), Ukraine (2014) and so on.
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Russia’s relationships with its client states have never been easy. Of course, managing client states is always a complicated exercise. The Kremlin’s closet is full of skeletons – Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968), Cuba (1962), Afghanistan (1980), Ukraine (2014) and so on.
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- “Forecast: The African Salafi-Jihadi Movement After COVID-19” by Emily Estelle
- “Eyes on the Other Global Crises” by Emily Estelle (Originally published in RealClearWorld)
- “Salafi-Jihadi Ecosystem in the Sahel” and interactive graphic by Katherine Zimmerman
South Sudan: Hundreds Killed in Inter-communal Violence. Since Saturday, at least 287 people, including a Doctors Without Borders staff member, have been killed in a spat of inter-communal violence, according to authorities. The violence, which is taking place in the Jonglei state, broke out on Saturday between the Murle and Lou Nuer ethnic communities. Over 300 people are believed to be wounded In February, a treaty was signed to end the country’s six-year civil war.
Al Jazeera BBC
Al Jazeera BBC
AQAP did more than just inspire the Pensacola attack
- The Salafi-Jihadi Movement: AQAP played an active role in the December 2019 Pensacola attack.
- The al Houthi Movement: Al Houthis are now attempting to reach Ma’rib city from southern al Bayda governorate.
- Check out detailed analysis on:
Africa File
LIBYA
Libya will fragment further as strongman Khalifa Haftar loses support. Turkish military support for forces aligned with the UN-backed government in Tripoli delivered a potentially decisive blow to Haftar’s yearlong campaign to seize Libya’s capital on May 18. Haftar’s domestic coalition is weakening and his primary foreign backers (the UAE, Egypt, and Russia) must decide whether to prop up his failing campaign. A renewed campaign for Tripoli could likely bring violence on a scale that Libya has not yet seen as external players pour military resources into the conflict. But even if this case is averted, the freezing or ending of the Tripoli campaign is unlikely to stabilize the country. Anti-Haftar players around Tripoli will likely return to fighting each other in the absence of an external foe. In the east, Haftar’s military rule could disintegrate and yield a war-within-a-war.
Unfortunately, Libya’s is far from the only crisis that is benefiting or will likely benefit the Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying economic crisis are putting unprecedented strain on many African states; governance will worsen in many cases, and the likelihood of instability and state collapse is rising.
LIBYA
Libya will fragment further as strongman Khalifa Haftar loses support. Turkish military support for forces aligned with the UN-backed government in Tripoli delivered a potentially decisive blow to Haftar’s yearlong campaign to seize Libya’s capital on May 18. Haftar’s domestic coalition is weakening and his primary foreign backers (the UAE, Egypt, and Russia) must decide whether to prop up his failing campaign. A renewed campaign for Tripoli could likely bring violence on a scale that Libya has not yet seen as external players pour military resources into the conflict. But even if this case is averted, the freezing or ending of the Tripoli campaign is unlikely to stabilize the country. Anti-Haftar players around Tripoli will likely return to fighting each other in the absence of an external foe. In the east, Haftar’s military rule could disintegrate and yield a war-within-a-war.
Unfortunately, Libya’s is far from the only crisis that is benefiting or will likely benefit the Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying economic crisis are putting unprecedented strain on many African states; governance will worsen in many cases, and the likelihood of instability and state collapse is rising.
Libyan government forces further advance against rogue leader
Libyan pro-Government of National Accord (GNA) forces said on Thursday they have captured a key town south of Tripoli, marking another advance against eastern forces led by military strongman Gen. Khalifa Hifter. The town of al-Asabaa lies on the road leading to the city of Tarhuna, Hifter’s main stronghold. Meanwhile, the GNA launched five airstrikes in Tarhuna, according to a military spokesman. Hifter’s self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) has suffered a series of setbacks in recent weeks, with forces loyal to the government taking control earlier this week of the key al-Watiya air base southwest of Tripoli. This comes as the LNA’s air force chief Saqer al-Jaroushi threatened to attack Turkish interests in Libya since Ankara has significantly helped the UN-backed government resist the LNA's year-long attack on the capital. In turn, Turkish foreign ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy warned that any attack on Turkish assets in Libya “will have very grave consequences.”
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Libyan pro-Government of National Accord (GNA) forces said on Thursday they have captured a key town south of Tripoli, marking another advance against eastern forces led by military strongman Gen. Khalifa Hifter. The town of al-Asabaa lies on the road leading to the city of Tarhuna, Hifter’s main stronghold. Meanwhile, the GNA launched five airstrikes in Tarhuna, according to a military spokesman. Hifter’s self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) has suffered a series of setbacks in recent weeks, with forces loyal to the government taking control earlier this week of the key al-Watiya air base southwest of Tripoli. This comes as the LNA’s air force chief Saqer al-Jaroushi threatened to attack Turkish interests in Libya since Ankara has significantly helped the UN-backed government resist the LNA's year-long attack on the capital. In turn, Turkish foreign ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy warned that any attack on Turkish assets in Libya “will have very grave consequences.”
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On May 16, 2020, newly appointed Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi addressed the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) in a visit to their headquarters. He was received by the government appointee PMU Chairman Falih Al-Fayyadh and other PMU commanders including Kata’ib Hezbollah Commander Abu Fadak, whose militias accused Al-Khadhimi in April of conspiring with the U.S. on killing Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis. – Middle East Media Research Institute
Zvi Bar’el writes: Sissi is careful not to present Egypt as the leading country in the Middle East, but contrary to Saudi Arabia, he is adept at evading problematic arenas such as Syria and Yemen and at avoiding open confrontation with the United States, thereby protecting his status as everyone’s partner. Sissi will lose no sleep over the cost of maintaining that status in terms of human rights in Egypt. – Haaretz
Zvi Bar’el writes: Sissi is careful not to present Egypt as the leading country in the Middle East, but contrary to Saudi Arabia, he is adept at evading problematic arenas such as Syria and Yemen and at avoiding open confrontation with the United States, thereby protecting his status as everyone’s partner. Sissi will lose no sleep over the cost of maintaining that status in terms of human rights in Egypt. – Haaretz
Dr. Manjari Singh writes: In these cases, diplomatic shifts can ripple outwards. If Gulf tensions are diminished by coronavirus’s regional impact—as well as Iran’s great need in focusing on its domestic challenges, Gulf Arab leaders are less likely to be invested in pressuring Iran. In this case, a shift in the Gulf might provide an opening to renegotiating with Iran. – Washington Institute
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