CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR - CounterStrikeMedia

summer reading list: middle east

6/29/2016

Wash. Post

“What’s at Stake for the Gulf Arab States in Syria?” (Hussein Ibish, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington)

“All these challenges notwithstanding, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, along with their allies, especially Turkey, will likely continue relying on funding and supporting armed opposition groups to try to influence the situation on the ground, while simultaneously pressing forward with efforts to convince Russia of the benefits of a post-Assad future in Syria to be achieved by a political agreement guaranteed by Washington and Moscow. But Saudi Arabia will not agree to an outcome if the new political order in Damascus does not significantly weaken the grip of Tehran and Hizballah over the Syrian government. This means that Riyadh and its allies will be attempting to go both over Tehran’s head, by appealing directly to Moscow and Washington, and simultaneously behind Iran’s back through covert programs designed to change the military equation on the ground to ensure that the current regime cannot remain in place if the conflict in Syria is to be resolved. If this cannot be achieved in Geneva or elsewhere through diplomatic and political means, the war in Syria is likely to continue for quite some time.”

afghan profile: ghani

6/28/2016

For more on Afghanistan, the New Yorker’s George Packer is out with a long profile of the country’s president, Ashraf Ghani. Money quote: “Ghani is a visionary technocrat who thinks twenty years ahead, with a deep understanding of what has destroyed his country and what might yet save it,” Packer writes. But one of Ghani’s advisors adds, “he wants to transform the country. And he can do it. But it seems as if everything is arrayed against him.” Another advisor said that the Taliban’s gains in the south and east of the country make 2016 “the year of living dangerously.” Many don’t expect Ghani to make it to the end of his term in 2019.

Afghanistan's nascent peace talks have hit another snag as the Islamist militant group Hezb-i-Islami Gulbuddin, run by anti-Soviet insurgency veteran Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, has walked out on the talks, the Long War Journal reports. Afghan officials were hopeful they could sew up an agreement with Hekmatyar but the Islamist militant leader issued a Taliban-style poison pill demand, saying that the group wouldn't sign on to any peace deal unless the Afghan government broke contact with the U.S. and removed all of its troops.

stalemate brewing in near east

6/27/2016

MEF

Wash. Post: Why Another Irak War is Brewing

The Left Must Learn: Tyranny Isn't Culture

al-Monitor: Saudi Prince Salman May Have the Upper Hand

Project Syndicate: Who's Winning the Middle East Cold War

Turkey has indeed emerged as Saudi Arabia’s main ally in the Syrian conflict. Riyadh and Ankara both support Sunni Islamist rebels fighting against the Iran-backed Syrian regime, and have intensified their cooperation in recent months. Egypt, meanwhile, has played a major role in Saudi efforts to offset Iranian influence in Yemen, joining the Saudi-led military coalition and dispatching its navy to help blockade the Yemeni ports controlled by Tehran-backed Houthi forces. The problem for Saudi Arabia is that the third side of that triangle—Egypt’s relationship with Turkey—is one of open hostility. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

the mythology of occupation in israel, The B.S. of BDS Movement

6/27/2016

MEF

Reflections on the 2nd Lebanon War - The Rubin Center for International Affairs

Yossi Klein Halevi writes: BDS creates an atmosphere in which Israel is solely to blame for the failure of peace between Jews and Arabs, and it negates the very idea of a nation-state for the Jewish people. BDS takes one of the world’s most complex and heartbreaking conflicts — between two traumatized peoples — and turns it into a morality play between darkness and light. The movement to criminalize Israel is itself a crime. Rather than Israel, it is the BDS movement that must be exposed and ostracized for its bigotry and hatred. – Los Angeles Times

The Israeli military has canceled a contentious directive known as the Hannibal procedure, which calls for the use of maximum force to prevent the capture of Israeli soldiers, even at the risk of harming them. – New York Times

MEF - Middle East Forum - Managing Israel's Threat from Gaza

pakistani, indian rivalry & afghan news

6/27/2016

For decades, Afghanistan has ranked with the very poorest African countries as one of the hardest places for infants and small children to survive. Conflict, poverty, poor health services and low levels of female education and rights combined to produce extremely high mortality rates for Afghan newborns, older infants and very young children. But finally, after 15 years of Western-backed civilian rule, their chances of survival are improving dramatically. – Washington Post

India cleared the purchase of 145 Ultra Light Howitzers at a cost of around $750 million from US, as well as bulk production of home-grown 18 Dhanush artillery guns and several other defense deals. – Defense News

India on Monday joined an exclusive club of countries controlling exports in missile technology, just a day after bemoaning its exclusion from another elite group that governs international nuclear fuel and technology. – Associated Press

Pakistan's army chief flew to Karachi on Sunday for security meetings following high-profile attacks that have raised fears of a slide back into chaos in the busy metropolis once known as the world's most violent megacity. - Reuters

Heavy fighting between Afghan forces and Islamic State fighters has killed dozens of people, officials said Sunday, raising fears the militant group is staging a comeback months after Kabul said they had been defeated. - AFP

At least 27 Afghan police cadets were killed in twin suicide bombings on a convoy of buses outside the capital, Kabul, on Thursday, officials said. – Washington Post

Indian authorities detained 11 men they said were suspected of building bombs and planning a terror attack on instructions from an Islamic State fighter abroad. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Pakistani forces killed three militants at the start of a crackdown on sectarian militant group in the southwestern province of Baluchistan, officials said on Thursday, following a spate of attacks targeting security forces. - Reuters

Unlike some security experts, Bangladesh authorities say the two international jihadi movements are not directly involved in the murders, many of which were carried out with machetes. But, as the police at the Hindu mission attest, the danger is real, and counter-terrorism officials warn it could get worse with one local militant group adopting al Qaeda's methods and calling on the expertise of a former army major implicated in a failed 2011 coup. - Reuters

Salafists, the followers of an ultra-conservative school of Islam, were behind a planned attack foiled by Kazakh security services, the head of national security committee KNB said on Thursday. - Reuters

the saudi's & the shia of bahrain

6/27/2016

AEI: 5 Things to Know about the Brewing Crisis in Bahrain

Brian Dooley writes: Without a renewal of the arms ban, Bahrain is likely to continue on this dangerous and ultimately self-defeating path of suffocating all dissent, fueling sectarianism and instability that will continue to have a ripple effect across the region. Washington needs to act quickly and assertively before things get even worse. - Politico

jordan is broke

6/27/2016

“A New Role for Jordan’s Government” (Kirk H. Sowell, Sada)

“King Abdullah II’s May 29 appointment of Hani al-Mulqi, head of the Aqaba Special Economic Region Authority, to replace outgoing prime minister Abdullah Ensour comes at a turning point for Jordan. Though the office has limited inherent power -- especially since a set of constitutional amendments announced in April enhanced executive authority and, specifically, the power of the king -- it signals a shift toward a more technocratic government, even if not an independent one. These changes, which coincide with the king’s dissolution of parliament, should leave the next parliament with the unhappy role of forming the budget and managing an unpopular process of cutting fuel and electricity subsidies while Mulqi, with his technocratic experience, becomes the public face of a painful austerity program. These changes coincide with rhetoric about Jordan’s need for a ‘parliamentary government.’”

Jordanian intelligence officials have stolen large quantities of weapons provided by the United States and Saudi Arabia for distribution to Syrian rebels and sold them on the black market, including the weapon used in an attack in November that killed two U.S. personnel in Amman, according to an FBI investigation reported by the New York Times and Al-Jazeera.

Corrupt Jordanian spies ripped off the CIA's program to arm Syrian rebels, according to the New York Times, diverting weapons to local Jordanian tribes, smugglers, and Islamist militants after selling them on the black market. The weapons, primarily small arms, were later used in an attack by a Jordanian police captain which killed two Americans and three Jordanians. The scheme was carried out by logistics officers from Jordan's powerful General Intelligence Department and preyed on truckloads of weapons bought by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia from arms dealers in Eastern Europe to provide millions of dollars in profits. Jordan fired the spies involved in the illicit plan but allowed the men to keep their money and their pensions.

israel opens diplomatic relations with turkey

6/27/2016

Israel and Turkey formally announced an agreement to normalize diplomatic relations today. The agreement, which was finalized yesterday and has been hinted at by diplomats for weeks, will renew official diplomatic ties, including the exchange of embassies. The feud between Israel and Turkey began six years ago when Israeli troops killed 10 people as they boarded the Mavi Marmara, a ship launched from Turkey by pro-Palestinian activists to break the blockade of Gaza. The Israeli government has since apologized for the incident and Israeli-Turkish ties have been improving since a conciliatory phone call in 2013. Under the agreement, Israel will pay $20 million to the families of the activists killed on the Mavi Marmara. Though Turkey had stressed that the lifting of the Gaza blockade was a necessary condition for restoring ties, the blockade will remain in place but Turkey will be allowed to deliver humanitarian aid through the neighboring Israeli port of Ashdod. The timing of the agreement creates opportunities for “lucrative Mediterranean gas deals,” Reuters reports.

“Israel-Turkey: Where to from Now?” (Gabriel Mitchell, Middle East Institute)

“Forging a new narrative requires the implementation of a multi-tier process that includes the diversification of official channels that enhance Israeli-Turkish strategic, economic, and humanitarian cooperation. Civil society actors will play an important role in bolstering these efforts and increasing people-to-people dialogue. Each country’s business community, indirectly responsible for keeping the possibility of reconciliation alive during this period of diplomatic tension, must also be vocal partners in defining the future of the relationship. Most importantly, Israeli and Turkish leaderships must create a mechanism that will allow them to effectively manage future conflicts. Throughout the decades, Israel-Turkey ties have often been impacted by developments in the Arab-Israeli conflict. But whereas previous Turkish support for the Palestinian cause was limited to diplomatic rhetoric, patronage under Erdogan and the A.K.P. became increasingly proactive, particularly in Gaza, necessitating a reevaluation of the relationship between Turkey and Israel.”

pakistan uses chinese drones

6/22/2016

Another drone crash, another hint of a secret export. Pakistan air force drone crashed in Mianwali district, around 90 miles southwest of the capital of Islamabad. Imagery of the wreckage which surfaced online bears a strong resemblance to the Chinese Wing Loong drone, which itself bears a strong resemblance to the American Reaper drone. China has a longstanding defense relationship with Pakistan and reportedly transferred much of the technology for Pakistan's armed Burraq drone, which looks quite a bit like China's CH-3 unmanned aerial vehicle. Pakistani officials say the drone was carrying out surveillance over areas recently hit by floods.

U.S. Army: Drones & Radar Problems
The U.S. Army is moving to take on the coming threat of swarms of small drones. Army Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Daniel B. Allyn told reporters that the plan is to start with a drone killer for small, single UAVs, and then try to take on whole swarms. Allyn said that the service is currently looking at two different systems to address the threat. The first is Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems Mobile Integrated capability, which blasts aircraft out of the sky either by jamming or shooting them. Another approach would involve the Counter Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar (C-RAM) system, which uses existing systems like the automated Phalanx close-in weapons system to track and shoot incoming small artillery rounds.

libya: u.s. mixed signals on policy

6/22/2016

Rifts have emerged between U.S. military leaders and the Obama White House on Washington's future role in Libya, with the generals questioning the White House's argument that the recent success against Islamic State shows Libya can go it alone in the fight against terrorism, without direct U.S. assistance. – Washington Times

At least 34 Libyan pro-government fighters were killed on Tuesday and 100 wounded in clashes with Islamic State militants as they continued their assault on the ISIS stronghold of Surt, Libya. – New York Times

The Islamic State terror group in Libya continues to grow inside the oil-rich North African state and is threatening attacks against Europe and elsewhere, the general nominated to lead the U.S. Africa Command told a Senate hearing Tuesday. – Washington Free Beacon

U.S. advisers on the ground have picked targets, but the White House has yet to approve airstrikes to support the fledgling Libyan government's fight against ISIS, President Obama's nominee to head U.S. Africa Command said Tuesday. – Military.com

The Marine Corps general nominated to lead U.S. forces in Africa said Tuesday the United States has a small number of troops on the ground in Libya and no more are needed "at the moment." – Associated Press

Emily Estelle writes: The Libyan civil war, like the Syrian civil war, needs a real resolution, not a back-room deal worked out in European hotels. In some ways, Secretary Kerry is also right—the U.S. needs a comprehensive strategy to defeat ISIS, and Al Qaeda, throughout the region. However, a comprehensive strategy is exactly what we don’t have. We are whacking various moles and negotiating “settlements” that settle nothing while ISIS adapts and Al Qaeda grows. – Fox News

The assault on Surt, now in its third week, has put the Islamic State in Libya under crushing pressure, threatening to rob the group of its largest base outside Iraq and Syria. The attack force, led by militias from the nearby city of Misurata and organized under the auspices of the United Nations-backed unity government, has corralled the Islamists into the city center, where they are pummeled with bombs and gunfire and cut off from their main escape route by sea. – New York Times

July 07, 2016
Federica Saini Fasanotti writes: The long-advocated national-level solution of political unity does not, in fact, seem possible. Instead, a confederation of the three regions built on the original disposition of tribes and natural borders could probably assure a deeper stability. – Brookings Institution

July 08, 2016
“A confederal model for Libya” (Federica Saini Fasanotti, Order from Chaos)

“While UNSMIL’s efforts have been commendable, the international community should seriously consider how to do more in Libya. It’s better to devise and implement an intervention plan now than wait for a true emergency in Libya. The international community must think about and articulate a real strategy, not merely implement tactical operations. Given the dramatically deteriorated security situation today, it seems impossible to imagine a non-security related intervention, even in defense of the soldiers called to the simple mission of protecting the new coalition government. One approach to consider is helping Libyans build a confederal state, divided into three large regions: Tripolitania, Cyrenaica, and Fezzan (or perhaps more if the Libyan people deem it appropriate). Perhaps it is time that such provinces become more autonomous -- following different paths as they choose, based on their unique ethnic, social, religious, and political origins. This is an extreme solution, of course. But it is clear that the international community, which had been so much a part of the Libyan revolution, cannot now permit the failure of Libya as a state.”

post fallujah assault

6/22/2016

Gen. Jack Keane Former Vice Chief of Staff U.S. Army - The Cipher Brief Interview

As Iraqi forces move through Falluja, the city is yielding the grim remnants of more than two years of Islamic State rule. Beheaded and decaying bodies. Clumps of facial hair from fighters who shaved their beards to blend in with fleeing civilians. A prison where detainees were held in cages suitable for a medium-sized dog. – New York Times

The campaign has offered Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi respite from a political crisis that paralyzed government and turned violent when demonstrators breeched Baghdad's heavily-fortified Green Zone. Yet questions remain about whether Abadi - who declared victory on Friday even though Islamic State militants are still fighting in Falluja - can convert those military gains into political success, and what kind of model Falluja offers for the next major military campaign, against Islamic State-held Mosul. - Reuters

Families fleeing the combat in the Iraqi city of Fallujah have been forced to sleep in the open desert for almost a week, with aid agencies warning that people are at risk of dying as supplies of tents and water run dangerously low. – Washington Post

Only a third of Fallujah has been "cleared" of Islamic State militants, the U.S.-led coalition said Tuesday, days after the Iraqi government declared victory in the city west of Baghdad, which was held by the extremists for more than two years. – Associated Press

Josh Rogin reports: As the war against the Islamic State in Iraq shows signs of fragile progress, U.S. military leaders there are preparing to ask President Obama for the one thing he is resisting above all else in his final months — the deployment of hundreds more U.S. troops. – Washington Post

Interview: Beset by sectarian tension, foreign influence, and simmering political unrest, the government of Prime Minister Haider al Abadi will find it difficult to both rebuild trust in the Sunni-dominated Anbar Province and regain control over Iraq’s political system. Former Vice Chief of Staff for the U.S. Army, four-star General Jack Keane, who is Chairman of the Institute for the Study of War, sat down with The Cipher Brief to discuss Iraq’s future. – The Cipher Brief

James Jeffrey writes: [W]ithin a year, ISIS will likely be essentially cleared from Iraq. The question then will be, can Iraq learn from the errors that fueled ISIS’ rise and, in particular, move towards a cross-sectarian, cross-religious concept of the nation? Much will depend on Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who has two more years in office before new parliamentary elections. But he cannot wait. Iraq’s problems are immediate, requiring responses even before ISIS is eradicated.’ – The Cipher Brief

Dennis Ross: how to defeat the islamic State

6/22/2016

Wash. Institute for Near Eastern Affairs

Flournoy, Goldenberg: A 4-point strategy to defeat ISIS

Obama doctrine: middle east

6/21/2016

Mr. Obama has drawn tight limits on what military action he’s willing to authorize in Iraq and Syria to combat the Islamic State….The White House has made clear he doesn’t intend to shift course, despite criticism not just on the campaign trail but now from dozens of State Department officials. Any significant policy shift, absent a foundation-shaking event, will only happen after Mr. Obama has left the White House in six months. – WSJ’s Washington Wire

Cold War-era B-52 bombers -- best known for flying nuclear-armed patrols and carpet- bombing in Vietnam -- have dropped almost 700 munitions on Islamic State targets since beginning operations in April over territory the group claims, according to the U.S. Air Force’s chief of staff. - Bloomberg

Seven months into its extended deployment, the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman has hit 2,000 sorties in missions against the Islamic State group, surpassing all other flattops that have launched strikes in the mounting war against ISIS over the past two years. – Military Times

A Muslim witness said at a Senate hearing Tuesday that he has "no problem" calling the Islamic State a radical Islamic terrorist organization, even though the Obama administration has made a point of avoiding that term. – Washington Examiner

President Barack Obama and some administration officials have hailed recent military gains against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, but other U.S. officials and outside experts warn that the U.S.-backed air and ground campaign is far from eradicating the radical Islamic group, and could even backfire. - Reuters

Dennis Ross writes: Our problem in getting Sunnis to take on this role is that our priority in Syria and Iraq is ISIL -- while Iran, the Shiite militias and Syrian President Bashar Assad are the Sunni preoccupations. They see a predatory Iran using Shiite militias to dominate the region and fear we are ready to acquiesce in their dominance. Until we can show we take the Iranian threat seriously, and will work with our Sunni partners to raise the cost to Iran of its destabilizing actions, the Sunnis will be unlikely to play the role that only they can against ISIL – USA Today

Wash. Post: Obama's Generals Want More Troops

Wash. Times: Obama's Generals Want Leadership in North Africa

AEI, Critical Threats: U.S. Playing "Whack-A-Mole" in Libya

L.A. Times: "The Long War" Will Last Generations

Derek Chollet writes: Obama has made clear his commitment America’s interests and partners in the region, and to defeat ISIS. But he is equally determined not to ruin our country in the process, or let the problems of the Middle East become the singular obsession of American foreign policy. The challenge is to find the right balance, and the Syrian tragedy proves how hard this can be. – Defense One

council foreign relations: new u.s. strategy afghanistan

6/21/2016

The Obama administration is pledging $1 billion per year to support the Afghan National Security Forces from 2018 to 2020, the administration’s point man for the region said Tuesday, despite a mixed record for U.S. and other Western aid in recent years. – Washington Times

The Taliban continues to make gains in Afghanistan as allies of the war-torn country reduce their commitments of troops and assistance, according to a new Pentagon report. – Washington Free Beacon

Afghanistan faces the risk of a new spiral in violence following a series of attacks on civilians in the last few months but on the battlefield, security forces have been holding their ground, the top U.N. official in the country said. - Reuters

Wash. Free Beacon: Taliban Expanding

CFR

Seth Jones writes: The United States is the most important external actor in Afghanistan, based on its military capabilities, wealth, and international influence. In general, U.S. policy should aim to build greater political consensus within Afghanistan, foster reconciliation with the Taliban, encourage regional powers to support Kabul, and build up Afghan security forces so that they can handle internal threats with limited outside involvement. – Council on Foreign Relations

Jones also writes: There are no palatable alternatives to a U.S.- and NATO-led security presence. A larger role for India would increase friction with Pakistan; a growing Pakistani role would worry Indian leaders and the large number of Afghans who distrust Islamabad; an increased Russian presence would open the old wounds of Moscow’s invasion in the 1980s; and a ramped-up Iranian role could further destabilize Afghanistan by increasing the influence of Shiites in the predominantly Sunni country. In fact, a steep U.S. drawdown and the invigorated insurgency that would likely follow would encourage all these countries to jockey for position in Kabul, contributing to regional instability. – Foreign Affairs’ Snapshots

Taliban honey pot. The Taliban have been using child sex slaves to mount insider attacks on Afghan police officers, and one Congressman wants to know what the Pentagon is doing to protect U.S. soldiers who are working with the police.

Obama's Bitter Afghan Policy

israel: netanyahu & gaza tunnels

6/20/2016

Eli Lake reports: President Barack Obama is now looking to end this U.S. subsidy of Israel's defense sector, according to U.S. and Israeli officials. They say the "offshore procurement" provision, unique to Israel's aid package, is one of the last obstacles to completing an agreement to extend aid until 2029. Obama would like to phase out the agreement that allows Israel to spend 26 percent of U.S. annual aid at home. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, so far, disagrees. – Bloomberg View

Bloomberg on Netanyahu

Israel is reportedly constructing a deep underground wall around the Gaza Strip, in an attempt to counter the threat of assault tunnels built by Hamas militants who rule the coastal enclave. – Washington Post

The Israeli government on Sunday approved about $20 million in additional financing for Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, underlining its strengthened right-wing orientation and raising the ire of political opponents and the Palestinians. – New York Times

The Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations, Riyad H. Mansour, said Friday that his government had begun preliminary negotiations with Egypt to define the extent of Palestinian-claimed territory in the Mediterranean off the roughly 25-mile-long coast of Gaza, the strip bordering Israel and Egypt where roughly 1.8 million Palestinians live. – New York Times

The [smuggling] system punches a hole in Israel’s system for regulating Palestinians’ access to work inside Israel, and has security implications: Attackers like the two Palestinian men who fatally shot four people this month at a Tel Aviv cafe sneak through as well. – New York Times

The Israeli government is considering a proposal to build an artificial island off the Gaza Strip that a top official says would give Palestinians living in the besieged enclave their one and only seaport — and maybe a hotel and an international airport, too. – Washington Post

Israeli forces opened fire at a Palestinian car in the occupied West Bank early Tuesday, killing one Palestinian teenager and wounding four others, according to relatives and Palestinian officials. The teenagers appeared to be innocent bystanders who were hit while the military tried to halt Palestinians who were throwing stones and firebombs. – New York Times

Defense Secretary Ashton Carter held a closed-door session at the Pentagon Monday with new hard-line Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman on a range of issues including Israel’s acquisition of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. – DOD Buzz

After three years of contentious review, the Israeli government has codified a new policy for cyber-related exports that aims to liberalize licensing and technology-transfer restrictions for all but defense and military end-users. – Defense News

Eli Lake writes: [I]n Netanyahu's case, the loss of political allies and proteges has become a feature of his governing style. Israel's prime minister has more ex-friends than Norman Podhoretz, the editor of Commentary who wrote a memoir about how many friends he lost as he migrated to the right. – Bloomberg View

sunni terror: egypt airliner down, black box

6/20/2016

CIA Director John Brennan on Thursday blamed the crash of a Russian airliner in Egypt last October on the ISIS affiliate in Sinai, a group that's also suspect in the loss of EgyptAir Flight 804 over the Mediterranean Sea in May. – Military.com

israeli civil-military relations: the gloves come off

6/17/2016

Washington Post

talking taliban??

6/17/2016

MEF

U.S. Spending Billions Again in Afghanistan

Pentagon: Afghan casualties increase w/”resilient” Taliban

America’s longest war is about to include more cash for Afghanistan’s army and police force — without any new conditions to try to ensure it doesn’t get gobbled up before making it to the battlefield. – Washington Post

U.S. military drones crossed into Pakistani territory and fired missiles into a vehicle carrying Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour, killing him and a driver. The killing was a setback to the peacemaking efforts by the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, the conflict-resolution group that met with Taliban representatives in Qatar. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

More than a dozen people believed to have been foreign contractors were killed in a suicide bombing in Kabul, the Afghan capital, on Monday, according to police and government officials. – New York Times

A foreign drone strike and ensuing ground operation by Afghan forces have killed more than two dozen Islamic State loyalists in eastern Afghanistan, local officials said. – Stars and Stripes

Civilian casualties in Afghanistan are at record highs, according to a Pentagon report released Friday that paints a bleak picture of a country where the Taliban continues its resurgence and the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) continues to be uneven. – The Hill

Afghans feel less secure than at any recent time, a new Pentagon report says, as Afghan battlefield deaths continue to escalate and civilian casualties hit a record high. – Associated Press

The Afghan parliament approved President Ashraf Ghani's choices for defense minister and intelligence chief on Monday, ensuring continuity in command at time when the Taliban insurgency has intensified and more U.S. troops are preparing to go home. - Reuters

afghan war updates: trump on u.s. cost of war, Bangladesh & Pakistan border dispute

6/17/2016

The cost and outcomes of U.S. efforts to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan following twin invasions was brought into the spotlight after Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, touched on the subject Tuesday night at a campaign rally in North Carolina. – Stars and Stripes

The new U.S. commander in Afghanistan has submitted his first three-month assessment of the situation in the war-torn country and what it's going to take to defeat the Taliban, a U.S. military official has told The Associated Press. – Associated Press

Police in the Afghan capital have told foreigners living outside protected compounds to travel with guards, after the kidnapping of an Indian aid worker last week added to a growing sense of insecurity in Kabul. - Reuters

Bangladesh & Pakistan
Police in Bangladesh have arrested more than 14,000 people in the last week and authorities have urged citizens to be vigilant. One district even armed some residents with bamboo sticks and whistles. Yet police said Thursday that machete-wielding assailants had struck again, wounding a Hindu college teacher at his home in southern Bangladesh. – Los Angeles Times

A border dispute between Afghanistan and Pakistan that escalated in recent days has led thousands of Afghans to say they would take up arms on behalf of the government to fight long-time rival Pakistan, officials said. – Stars and Stripes

the saudi plan for liberalization & the wartime charm offensive

6/17/2016

Wash. Post: Saudi Trends, Oil Prices & Women in Saudi Society

“Here’s why Saudi Arabia is loosening its restrictions on women” (Yu-Ming Liou and Paul Musgrave, Monkey Cage)

“Conventional wisdom says Vision 2030 is driven by low oil prices and soaring military expenditures caused by Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen. The moves to liberalize Saudi society, by contrast, are often explained as springing from generational turnover or a gradual evolution in social attitudes. Separating fiscal and social policies in that way, however, overlooks how the kingdom’s finances and its policies toward women are linked. In a forthcoming article in International Studies Quarterly, we argue that autocrats in oil-rich states strike bargains with important societal interest groups. Rulers impose repressive social policies to secure the backing of key groups -- as the Saudi royal family has done with the Wahhabist religious authorities. If those social policies are being withdrawn, it means that the monarchy is trying to rewrite that bargain.”

Editorial: Unless and until Prince Mohammed uses his new power to protect and promote the basic freedoms of Mr. Badawi and others like him, even those who wish the Saudi kingdom well may remain skeptical about the promises of change. – Washington Post

Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s powerful deputy crown prince, has taken his plan to transform the oil-dependent kingdom to the US as he attempts to sell his bold vision and lure investment to the Gulf state. – Financial Times

Brian Dooley writes: The Obama administration needs to end its cognitive dissonance of telling itself that its friends, the “reformers” in the ruling family Bahrain, will magically become good, despite overwhelming evidence of increasing authoritarianism. The State Department — long derided by Bahraini activists as the Department of Statements — should immediately and publicly reimpose the ban on arms sales to Bahrain. – Defense One

Saudi Arabia, after its powerful deputy crown prince met with President Obama at the White House on Friday, publicly rebutted campaign allegations by both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump that it supports Islamist extremism and said it expects strong U.S. relations to continue no matter who wins the election. – Washington Post

The U.S. military now plans to keep a small force of Special Operations advisers in Yemen — deployed in April for a limited, short-term operation — for the foreseeable future, a step toward reestablishing a counterterrorism mission that was shut down last year by civil war – Washington Post’s Checkpoint

Despite the United Arab Emirates's announcement Wednesday that it will cease its military operations in Yemen, the war is not over. – Defense News

Brian Katulis writes: U.S.-Saudi relations have been tested and torn by the 9/11 attacks, war in Iraq, the Arab Spring uprisings, and the Iran nuclear deal. Both countries have questioned the value of bilateral ties. But a new generation of Saudi leaders recognizes that the U.S. remains their strategic partner of choice. They understand that Russia, China, and India don’t have what Washington can offer. U.S. officials, watching the regional chaos around the Saudis, are prioritizing reliable, capable partners who can help produce tangible security and economic results to sustain stability. This Saudi visit will not bridge those gaps. But it can open dialogue that moves toward achieving results. – WSJ’s Washington Wire

June 28, 20016
David Ignatius writes: Starting in January 2015 with the accession of King Salman, Saudi Arabia has been shaken by the bold reform campaign of his son, known at home and abroad by his initials, MBS. By outmaneuvering and sometimes defying his elders, the young deputy crown prince has turned the politics of this conservative, sometimes sclerotic monarchy upside down. – Washington Post

Awacs, centcom & Getting U.s. policy right

6/16/2016

Breaking Defense
As Central Command continues to hammer Daesh with bombs, rockets, bullets, and more, that’s straining the limited supply of AWACS, the airborne radar/command post aircraft that form the backbone of a modern air campaign…The NATO diplomat said the alliance’s 28 members were expected to approve the decision to share some of the 16 NATO aircraft by the Warsaw Summit on 8-9 July. – Breaking Defense

Getting U.S. Policy Right
Report: The final report of the CNAS ISIS Study Group proposes a strategy based on four key interlocking efforts and then describes how these efforts can be applied region by region in western Iraq, eastern Syria, southwest Syria, and northwest Syria – Center for a New American Security

Iraq, ambassador ryan crocker on fallujah, syria

6/16/2016

Even as the central question of Iraq remains unanswered — whether the country’s Sunni minority and Shiite majority can ever peacefully coexist in a unified state — the experiences of General Razaij, Mr. Hammadi and others add a troubling corollary: It is not clear that Iraq’s divided Sunnis will ever be able to find peace among themselves after a conflict that in many ways is playing out as a war within families. – New York Times

Cipher Brief

Ryan Crocker writes: So we are at the gates of Fallujah. Islamic State will be defeated there, and then the focus will shift to Mosul, which has a much larger Sunni civilian population. And there we will see not only the Shia militias but also the Kurdish Peshmerga, viewed by Sunnis as hardly preferable to the militias. The U.S. is focused on defeating Islamic State, by whatever means and with whomever wants to join the fight. We employed similar tactics against the Soviets in Afghanistan – the means don’t matter, only the end. But there are no ends in the Middle East. Islamic State will be defeated in Fallujah and eventually in Mosul. The consequences are likely to be worse. – The Cipher Brief

U.S. Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopters have gone into action in Iraq for the first time in support of the slow-moving advance on Mosul but were being kept out of the ongoing siege of Fallujah, where increasing reports of abuses and killings of Sunni refugees have emerged. – Military.com

Iraq's interior minister said it was difficult to prevent attacks against people fleeing the Islamic State-held city of Falluja, but denied that such actions were systematic and pledged to punish anyone proven guilty of abuses. - Reuters

Iraq's Kurds said they are ready to strike an agreement with the central government in Baghdad on a deal to increase oil exports if it guarantees them monthly revenue of $1 billion, more than double what they make currently from selling oil. - Reuters

Once Islamic State is defeated, Iraq should be divided into three separate entities to prevent further sectarian bloodshed, with a state each given to Shi'ite Muslims, Sunnis and Kurds, a top Kurdish official said on Thursday. - Reuters

Genocide
Islamic State is committing the crime of genocide against the Yazidis in Syria and Iraq, seeking to destroy the ethno-religious group of 400,000 people through killings, sexual slavery and other crimes, United Nations investigators said on Thursday. - Reuters

Syrian U.S. Objectives
Robert Ford writes: Attaining the U.S. objective of a negotiated new government in Syria needs cooperation from Russia and Iran who must understand that they and Assad won’t be able to impose a political deal with only cosmetic changes that the majority of the Syrian opposition cannot and will not accept. That’s not an American dictate—it’s a Syrian one. The dissent memo should wake us up that the current approach ensures we will not secure our national interest in Syria, that broader U.S. interests will suffer as a consequence, and we need to reconsider our approach. – The Daily Beast

isis containment, U.N. Syrian Impartiality & Yemen

6/16/2016

“An ISIS Containment Doctrine” (Jenna Jordan and Lawrence Rubin, The National Interest)

“Containment is insufficient to address the full range of threats ISIS poses. Bringing Kennan back in tells us that containment is a limited strategy that doesn’t seek destruction of the enemy. It is possible to limit ISIS’s expansion and weaken its hold over territory, but because ISIS is also an an ideological movement and a transnational terrorist organization, defeat is not possible through containment. The populist alternatives, carpet bombing ISIS or launching a ground invasion, also do not recognize the multifaceted threat posed by ISIS. In fact, these solutions may do harm than good and have the potential to broaden and deepen community support for militant groups. While ISIS is a different adversary, these lessons from from the Cold War can be useful for thinking about how to best counter the threat posed by ISIS.”

“Taking Sides: The United Nations’ Loss of Impartiality, Independence and Neutrality in Syria” (The Syria Campaign)

“As the humanitarian situation in Syria has deteriorated, the calculation of ‘playing the government’s game’ as the UN official describes it, has been justified as necessary by the UN in order to gain access to people who need aid. An evaluation of the WFP’s work in Syria writes that ‘Management judged that its interests in delivering food to the maximum number of people in need are best served by maintaining close relations with the Syrian government and negotiating behind the scenes for access.’ Yet humanitarian access has not increased -- in fact the opposite has happened. Over one million people in Syria are now living under siege. The government is involved in besieging 99% of people under siege. There is severe imbalance in both the quantity and quality of aid provided in areas controlled by the government and areas outside their control. In some cases this is because extremist groups like the Islamic State (ISIS) have prevented UN access. In most cases it is because the government has purposefully punished areas outside of its control through deprivation of humanitarian aid.”

The United Arab Emirates announced that, in its view, the war in Yemen is winding down, possibly signaling a drawdown for its participation in operations in the Saudi-led intervention. The UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Anwar Gargash, said in remarks released yesterday that the “war is over” (or “practically” over, in a different version of the speech) and that Emirati forces were now focusing on "monitoring political arrangements" and "empowering Yemenis in liberated areas." The Emirati military has been particularly active in efforts to recapture areas of the country occupied by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and at least 80 Emirati troops have been killed in the intervention, which began in March 2015. Emirati troops remain in Yemen and are currently guarding strategic military positions.

Despite the Emirati announcement, the warring parties in Yemen seem no closer to reaching a negotiated settlement, and the internationally-recognized government is reportedly close to walking out of U.N.-backed peace talks in Kuwait. Yemeni Foreign Minister Abdul Malek Al Mikhlafi said that the talks have gone nowhere and “are revolving in a vacuum.” Earlier this week, the release of a three-point roadmap for a settlement proposed by the U.N. Yemen envoy was delayed due to disagreements between the parties. “The gap remains wide between the two sides,” a Western diplomat told AFP.

afghan young male prostitues, suicide bombers

6/16/2016

The Taliban is using male teenage sex slaves to lure police officials and launch insider attacks in southern Afghanistan.

For roughly two years, the insurgent group has used an ancient practice called “bacha bazi,” or pedophilic relationships between older men and young beardless boys, to infiltrate the security forces and launch attacks that have killed hundreds of policemen.

"The Taliban are sending boys -- beautiful boys, handsome boys -- to penetrate checkpoints and kill, drug and poison policemen," said Ghulam Sakhi Rogh Lewanai, Uruzgan's former police chief.

The practice has led to the deterioration of security conditions in Uruzgan, which is on the brink of collapse. The Taliban, for its part, banned bacha bazi during its rule from 1996 to 2001, and has denied using young boys for insider attacks.

leading in irak

6/15/2016

“From Maliki to Abadi: The Challenge of Being Iraq’s Prime Minister” (Harith Hasan Al-Qarawi, Crown Center for Middle East Studies, Brandeis University)

“The circle of blame that characterized Maliki’s terms has been repeated: The prime minister blames parties for focusing on their narrow interests and thereby placing hurdles in his way; the parties, in turn, criticize him for attempting to pursue a unilateral and exclusivist policy -- or, alternatively, for being uncertain about what he wants. In the words of a senior Shia politician, “Abadi does not know exactly what he wants...in the morning we agree with him on something, just to hear that he changed his mind in the evening.’ Complicating things further for Abadi is that the organizing doctrine behind the Iraqi polity today is one based on communal representation: Politicians are largely seen as representatives of their communities rather than as constituting a broader national base. They are expected to remain loyal to their sub-national constituencies, which extends to adopting uncompromising and unrealistic positions with respect to relations with other communities. The prime minister is constrained both by the need to secure the support of his own community and by the inflexibility shown by leaders of other communities.”

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