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centcom & The long war

THE IRANIAN OIL PROBLEM & REVOLUTION BEGINS AT THE BAZAAR

6/29/2018

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  • WINEP’s Mohamed Soliman: To counter Iran, Trump must rebuild a united Gulf
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AMIR TAHERI:  THE REVOLUTION & THE BAZAAR
AEI
How the Iran sanctions drama intersects with OPEC-plus
BY PEPE ESCOBAR
Major states buying oil from Iran are unlikely to heed the US call to drop imports; key allies want a waiver to avoid sanctions; OPEC, meanwhile, will have trouble boosting output in the short-term; the puzzle is not solved, but there are dark clouds
  • Merchants protest worsening economic situation in several major cities.Thousands of shopkeepers and citizens have taken to the streets around major marketplaces in Iran to protest the rapid devaluation of the Iranian rial and the rising costs of goods since June 24. Protests peaked on June 25 and have died down significantly since then. Merchants and everyday Iranians went on strike and closed their shops in major cities including Tehran, Arak (Markazi Province), Shiraz (Fars Province), Tabriz (East Azerbaijan Province), and Kermanshah (Kermanshah Province), among several others. Protesters chanted anti-regime slogans during the demonstrations. The BBC reported that the demonstrations in Tehran were the largest protests in the city since 2012. Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) employed tear gas to disperse protesters and injured many demonstrators. The protests follow a record low valuation of the Iranian rial before the start of the protests on June 24. The rial has devalued by nearly 40 percent since the May 8 U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). (BBC) (E)(Reuters) (E) (Reuters) (E) (Instagram)
  • Parliamentarians call for change in Rouhani’s economic team following Bazaar protests. Parliamentarians voiced their dissatisfaction with the President Hassan Rouhani administration’s economic performance. Conservative Parliamentarian Hamid Reza Hajji Babaei called for the “reshuffling or change in the government’s economic team.” Babaei warned that Parliament will be forced to make the changes by interpellating cabinet members if Rouhani is unable to institute the necessary changes. (Mehr News Agency)
    • Etemaad floats rumors for CBI Governor replacement. Reformist newspaper Etemaad reported on June 28 that Rouhani was considering replacing Central Bank of Iran (CBI) Governor Valiollah Seif with former Economic Affairs and Finance Minister Ali Tayyeb Nia in order to appease demands for change within his economic team. Parliamentarians have interpellated several ministers over previous months including Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh and Labor Minister Ali Rabiei. Parliament is also soon expected to initiate the interpellation of Economic Affairs and Finance Minister Massoud Karbasian. (Jam-e Jam) (Alef) (Etemaad) (Fars News Agency)
  • Safavi suggests Iran might be better off without the government. Senior Military Advisor to the Supreme Leader IRGC Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi stated that “sometimes, it appears that the country would be run better if the government didn’t exist” on June 25, one day after the beginning of economically-driven protests in Tehran. Safavi attributed part of the people’s dissatisfaction with the government to the “failures of leaders,” a likely reference to the President Hassan Rouhani administration. Safavi later accused certain media outlets on June 27 of “incorrectly reflecting” his comments. Safavi’s statements are indicative of a growing sense of dissatisfaction amongst senior IRGC officials with the Rouhani administration. (Vatan-e Emrooz) (BBC Persian) (Aftab News)
  • Rouhani: convergence of foreign and domestic pressures is “fatal.”President Hassan Rouhani expressed his concern with foreign and domestic pressures working together to attack the government during a televised speech on June 27. Rouhani called the convergence of foreign and domestic pressures from within Iran “fatal.” Rouhani reacted to recent calls for a change in his administration and uncharacteristically scolded critics of his government. Rouhani exclaimed that those “who think that the government is scared, will resign, or will give up in [the face of these pressures], are wrong!” Rouhani’s statements follow increased calls from parliamentarians for a “reshuffling” of Rouhani’s economic team. (President.ir) (President.ir) (President.ir)
    • Vaezi: reshuffling of cabinet not certain as of yet. President Hassan Rouhani’s Chief of Staff Mahmoud Vaezi refused to confirm rumors of changes to Rouhani’s economic team on June 27 but stated that the “reshuffling of the cabinet is not certain [yet].” Vaezi suggested that Rouhani is the sole decision maker regarding any possible changes to his economic team. (Tabnak)

The Trump administration’s effort to drive Iranian oil exports down to “zero” is boosting the fortunes of Tehran’s rival, Saudi Arabia, and putting the U.S. ally on a stronger footing for a showdown across the Persian Gulf. - Wall Street Journal

Iran had been pushing hard for oil producers to hold output steady as U.S. sanctions are expected to hit its exports, meaning Tehran had little to gain from OPEC production increases that lower oil prices and cut its revenue. But Saudi Arabia and Russia had other ideas. - Reuters

The United States is prepared to work with countries on a case by case basis to help them reduce imports of Iranian oil as Washington prepares to reimpose sanctions against Tehran in November, a State Department official said on Thursday, suggesting the Trump administration could offer waivers. - Reuters

Iran’s position in the oil market is looking weaker than ever as a bruising OPEC meeting and tightening net of U.S. sanctions leave it with fewer friends and fleeing customers. - Bloomberg

India’s oil ministry has asked refiners to prepare for a ‘drastic reduction or zero’ imports of Iranian oil from November, two industry sources said, the first sign that New Delhi is responding to a push by the United States to cut trade ties with Iran. - Reuters

Mohamed Soliman writes: In order to bring this conflict to a conclusion, Washington must work to contain and resolve the Gulf crisis. Left to fester, this clash will undermine broader U.S. strategic efforts to contain Iran—the United States cannot effectively deal with the Iranian threat without ensuring that Washington has a united ally base in the region. - Washington Institute
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Alex Vatanka writes: Since its 1979 revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran has incited violent, radical, and often sectarian nonstate groups across the Middle East to serve as proxies in its military campaigns to influence regional and international politics. This “proxy model” has become increasingly salient since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and more recently in Iraq and Syria, and is now Iran’s primary tool for advancing its regional interests. - Middle East Institute
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SAUDI AIMS DEFEATED IN YEMEN & A REVIEW OF SAUDI REFORM

6/28/2018

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Critical Threats Project analyst Maher Farrukh warns that the offensive will jeopardize U.S. interests if it moves forward under current conditions. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) may be preparing to resume offensive operations while Emirati forces prioritize al Hudaydah over counterterrorism efforts.

Other relevant readings on Yemen:
  • The Assault on al Hudaydah: Surfacing America’s Partnership Problems
  • The New Front in Yemen
  • Yemen: Averting a Destructive Battle for Hodeid
The Five Ms of Saudi Arabia’s Rehabilitation
By Pete Knoetgen, Belfer Center: “Having solidified the formal basis of his power, Mohammed bin Salman has further marginalized opponents to his authority and his reform efforts through often brutal coercion.”
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TALIBAN NEW EMIR:  PAKISTAN'S NEW TERROR MASTER & SOME THOUGHTS ON THE WAR

6/26/2018

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Pakistani Taliban appoints new emir after confirming death of Mullah Fazlullah
The TTP appears to be returning to its roots by selecting Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, a prominent commander from the Mehsud tribe, to lead it. The TTP also confirmed the death of Mullah Fazlullah.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/06/pakistani-taliban-appoint-new-emir-after-confirming-death-of-mullah-fazlullah.php

Three tours, one unsolvable riddle: An airman’s reflections on securing the peace in Afghanistan
(War On The Rocks) Advising a crusty Afghan general is a delicate endeavor. Like American generals, they’re accustomed to the trappings of rank and the deferential treatment that often accompaniesthem. But unlike their American counterparts, they have to endure innumerable coalition advisors peddling the latest “solution” to their problems.  
 
The United States cannot afford to pick a side in the Shia-Sunni fight
(The National Interest) America is going all in with the pro-confrontation camp led by Saudi Arabia. 
Time for America to Leave Afghanistan
By Richard A. Carrick, Small Wars Journal: “President Trump has given the U.S. military one last chance to implement a new strategy to end the conflict. For him, the American people, the Afghans, and the U.S. military the decisive point in this long conflict is rapidly approaching.”
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KENNETH POLLACK REVEALS U.S. POLICY AGAINST IRAN (VIDEO)

6/25/2018

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Iran: A strategy for pushing back on Tehran
Kenneth Pollack | AEI video 
The Middle East is changing. The more Iran is allowed to direct the transformation of the Middle East, the more likely the region will emerge worse off. It is incumbent upon the US to confront Iran during this uncertainty.
A path to victory for Trump on Iran   
Dalibor Rohac | The Hil
In Iran, revolution is starting in the bazaar
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner 
Like the Soviet Union and all other regimes that depend on repression rather than the consent of the governed, the Iranian regime is doomed to fail. The question has never been if, but when. As regime officials send billions of dollars outside the country, the economy continues its death spiral, and protests spread to the Tehran bazaar, it seems that the answer to that question could be tantalizingly near.
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BEFORE ISIS, FALLUJAH & THE TAKING OF ANBAR PROVINCE

6/24/2018

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https://www.amazon.com/Fallujah-Awakens-Marines-Sheikhs-Against/dp/1591141702/ref=sr11?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1529806854&sr=1-1&keywords=ardolino+fallujah
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KASHMIR LIGHTS UP AS PAKISTANI TERROR GROUPS APPLY FOR ELECTIONS & CIVIL WAR EMERGING IN IRAQ AS LOCAL SHIA TAKE ON IRAN

6/21/2018

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Nominees of terror groups plan to run in Pakistani election
BY F.M. SHAKIL
Election Commission seems unable to stop the ‘political mainstreaming’ of extremists who may have backing from elements of the Pakistani state; militants could run independently or allied to unknown religious groups
Iraqi Police, Hezbollah Brigades clash in Baghdad
The standoff between the police and Hezbollah Brigades may portend an upcoming power struggle between Iraq's established security forces and the Iranian-supported Shia militias that make up the Popular Mobilization Units.
As Indian prime minister cuts it loose, dispute in Kashmir region is about to get even worse
(South China Morning Post) India’s insurgency-ridden Jammu and Kashmir province is tipped to enter one of its most violent phases as Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pulled his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) out of a local coalition government to prepare the ground for a crackdown ahead of the next general election in 2019.
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ISRAELI CAUGHT SPYING FOR IRAN & HOW ISRAEL WANTS TO HIT IRAN

6/21/2018

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Israel Spends With Eye On Iran Strikes In Shifting Mideast
Former Israeli minister arrested for allegedly spying for Iran
BY SHAIEL BEN-EPHRAIM
The arrest reveals the seedy underbelly of the Israeli security elite: communities of expats in Africa involved in illicit trade and illegal activity
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HOW INTERNATIONAL BANKING USES S.W.I.F.T. TO HALT IRAN

6/21/2018

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FDD
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THE SAUDI REFORM MOVEMENT IN HIGH GEAR & THE LIMITS OF URBAN WAR

6/20/2018

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Saudi Reform And Security Through A Gulf Lens
by Lori Plotkin Boghardt via The Caravan
The arrest of several of the kingdom’s most prominent women’s rights activists six weeks before the date when women would be allowed to drive came as a shock to everyone.  After news of the detentions spread through informal channels, an official announcement on May 19 referred ambiguously to the detention of individuals seeking “to undermine the security and stability of the kingdom” and erode “national unity” through various activities.  Local news outlets quickly vilified the activists – some well-known abroad as peaceful advocates – and branded them “traitors.” 

In the second part of a two-part special series on the battle for Hodeida, Cipher Brief Expert Norman T. Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI, writes that 
  • After three days of fighting, Coalition forces now control a strip of territory along the Red Sea coast and most of Hodeida airport… 

  • These are important success, but the combination of Coalition unwillingness to risk civilian casualties, the dense urban fighting environment, and the importance of the port city to the Houthis, means expulsion of Houthi forces will take time...

  • Although, control of the airport and port itself will likely be achieved by the Saudi-led coalition soon…
Read the full Expert Perspective from Norman T. Roule, the former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, here..

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) will use the UAE military’s focus on the al Hudaydah operation against the al Houthi movement to reposition itself in southern Yemen. The UAE decreased counterterrorism operations as it prepared for and launched an offensive to seize the Red Sea port city, lifting some of the counterterrorism pressure from AQAP. AQAP militants have since conducted and attempted multiple attacks targeting security forces in southern and eastern Yemen. [Read Katherine Zimmerman’s “The Assault on al Hudaydah: Surfacing America’s Partnership Problems” for more implications of the Emirati operation.] ​
Saudi Reform: Essential But Perilous
by Ali Shihabi via The Caravan
Saudi Arabia is undergoing a perilous, but essential transformation. Those wishing to safeguard one of the last bastions of Middle East stability should support Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s (MBS) dramatic socioeconomic reforms and also appreciate the challenges, resistance, and limitations amid which he is forced to operate. As rapid reform risks destabilizing the kingdom’s broad and deeply divided political base, rule by consensus will not work. Only a strong hand can balance Saudi Arabia’s competing constituencies.
 
Saudi Arabia At A Crossroads
by Elham Manea via The Caravan
Saudi Arabia, a kingdom grounded in a dynastic religious alliance, stands at a crossroads. Some observers and journalists, both Western and Arab, eyeing the new assertive leadership of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (henceforth MbS) and his promised economic and social reforms, have rushed to declare him a ‘reformer’.
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US POLICY ON IRAN & SAUDI ARABIA:  HOOVER INSTITUTION PUBLICATION 'THE CARAVAN'

6/19/2018

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  • WINEP’s Katherine Bauer on Iran's vulnerabilities to U.S. sanctions
Katherine Bauer writes: As officials mull these decisions, they should keep in mind that sanctions need not be reimposed exactly how they were before the nuclear deal. This discretion gives Washington room to better exploit key Iranian vulnerabilities, work with foreign partners with the aim of galvanizing multilateral action, and prioritize U.S. efforts in the face of time and resource constraints. - Washington Institute
Saudi Arabia Or Iran In US Strategy 
by Russell A. Berman via The Caravan
Effective US policy toward Saudi Arabia requires familiarity with the intricacies of its history and society, of course. The legacies of the foundation of the state, the traditional collaboration of political and religious leadership and the burdensome privileges of the extended royal family still weigh on the Saudi present, even as new circumstances develop, especially the ambitions of the young generation, eager for the reforms promised by the bold leadership of the Crown Prince.
The Caravan: Change In Saudi Arabia
via The Caravan
Issue 1818 of The Caravan is now available online. The journal is a periodic symposium on the contemporary dilemmas of the Greater Middle East.
Those Exceptional Saudis
by Charles Hill via The Caravan
“Exceptionalism” was long claimed for America, at least until a president informed us that every nation considers itself exceptional. However that may be, one place now merits that description: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where past, present, and future are entangled as nowhere else; a family, a state, a religion, and an empire variously maneuver for prominence depending on the lens through which the outside world views them. Which is it? What is Saudi Arabia? And how much can it move the political markets of world affairs?
Iran has no plans currently to extend the range of its missiles since their 2,000-km (1,240-mile) reach is enough to protect the country, the Revolutionary Guards commander said on Tuesday, amid mounting U.S. pressure over Tehran’s missile program. - Reuters
Saudi Arabia's Reforms And The United States
by Bernard Haykel via The Caravan
The reign of King Salman of Saudi Arabia (since January 2015) represents a significant watershed in the history of the kingdom’s system of governance as well as in its domestic and foreign policies. These changes reflect the priorities of the king, who is an absolute monarch. The first, and most important, of these is the handing over of de facto rule to a prince of the younger generation: the king’s 32-year-old son and Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (known in the West by his acronym MBS), who will become the reigning monarch upon his father’s passing.

Bin Salman And The Promise (Or Peril) Of Reform
by Nadav Samin via The Caravan
A mass drugging is how one young Saudi man in Riyadh described to me Mohammad Bin Salman’s Vision 2030, eight months after its ostentatious launch in April 2016.  Smoke and mirrors, he meant.  Since then, the energetic and youthful Saudi crown prince has surprised his critics by upending a number of his country’s political, economic, and cultural norms.  But can he safely deliver more change to an already rapidly changing society?  How much tinkering can one do with a fragile polity before it cracks under the pressure?
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A CAPTIVE BENGHAZI LEADER & LIBYAN OIL FOR THE LONG WAR

6/18/2018

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Fighting in Libya over control of oil resources demonstrates the shortcomings of an international strategy that focuses on settlements between elites who do not exercise sufficient control on the ground. Militias linked to Salafi-jihadi groups and without ties to the major political factions seized two of Libya’s main oil ports on June 14. A battle for Libya’s oil crescent disrupts the economy and will set off a broader conflict that leads to increased Salafi-jihadi activity, demonstrating the ability of armed groups without ties to major political factions to disrupt Libya’s economy. [Read Emily Estelle’s “Warning Update: Oil Battle Returns Libya to the Brink”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5856891/Osama-Bin-Ladens-driver-linked-2012-Benghazi-attacks-killed-envoy-captured-Libya.html
Renewed fight over Libya’s oil threatens entire country
The repeated attacks against the country’s main oil lifeline will always be a looming threat as long as no central government is in place with full power over the entire territory of Libya.
Clashes near Libya’s oil ports slash output in half 
Libya's oil output has fallen by half due to ongoing clashes at Ras Lanuf and Es Sider oil terminals, costing producers $33 million in sales, National Oil Company head Mustafa Sanalla said Wednesday. The two ports were attacked June 14 by militants opposed to Khalifa Hifter’s self-proclaimed Libyan National Army and have been closed ever since.  Read More  ​
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A NEW INSURGENCY FOR PAKISTAN:  PASHTUNS & TALIBAN ON OFFENSE AGAIN

6/18/2018

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Why Pakistan’s Pashtun minority won’t be easily crushed 
Sadanand Dhume | AEIdeas
Pakistan’s Pashtuns take on the army — and terrorists
Sadanand Dhume | The Wall Street Journal 
Pakistan’s powerful army would seem to have little to fear from a scrappy group of protesters nobody had heard of until recently. But nearly four months after the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement emerged as one of the army’s fiercest critics, Pakistan’s generals are clueless on how to deal with it.

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ISRAEL DRAWS RED LINES FOR RUSSIA IN SYRIA & ISRAELI ULTRA-ORTHODOX WANT OUT OF MANDATED CONSCRIPTION

6/18/2018

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Iran, Syria, and Israel’s Red Line 
By Jacob Nagel, RealClearDefense: “From Israel’s perspective, the aim is to ensure that Iran, and all other players, relinquish their designs on a permanent presence - or even a temporary terrorist presence - in Syria.”
Ultra-Orthodox, leftists join forces against Israeli draft
Ultra-Orthodox and leftist Knesset members have joined forces and advanced a proposal to abolish Israel's compulsive military service.
Israeli defense minister calls for compromise on draft dispute
Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman advances a compromise outline on the enlistment of the ultra-Orthodox, even though the opposition accuses him of caving in to them.
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TIME FOR BAHRAIN TO REFORM; WHY KUWAIT, OMAN REMAIN IN NO-MAN'S LAND & IRAN'S IRGC TIGHTENS GRIP ON ECONOMY

6/16/2018

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The US Must Tell Bahrain's Rulers: It's Time to Reform
 
// Salvatore Borgognone and Rachel Furlow
The crackdown by Sunni rulers on the Shi'ite majority is opening doors for Tehran. 
FDD:  KUWAIT & OMAN IN NO-MAN'S LAND
  • MEI’s Ahmad Majidyar: IRGC tightens grip on Iran's economy
Ahmad Majidyar writes: The latest statement by the head of the Khatam al-Anbia Construction Base, the [Islamic Revolution Guards Corps’] main engineering arm, indicates that the Guards, quite the contrary, is seeking to exploit the departure of foreign firms in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear accord and further expand its economic activities, particularly in the lucrative energy and construction industries. - Middle East Institute
IRANIAN POLICY IN YEMEN
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EMIR OF PAKISTAN KILLED BY DRONE IN AFGHANISTAN & WHY US INDIRECTLY ARMING TALIBAN

6/16/2018

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Emir of Pakistani Taliban thought killed in US airstrike
US HAS NO GOOD OPTIONS IN AFGHANISTAN:  Read the complete analysis.....
U.S., AFGHANISTAN: How the U.S. Is Indirectly Arming the Taliban 
By Austin Bodetti, The Diplomat: “The insurgents' Western-sourced arsenal includes lasers and night-vision goggles abandoned by Afghan and American soldiers and bought on the black market, doubling the number of nighttime Taliban attacks and tripling the rate of Afghan casualties between 2014 and 2017.”
Death of a Terrorist Leader 
By Claude Rakisits, RealClearDefense: “Fazlullah ordered what was undoubtedly one of the most brutal terrorist attacks in the history of Pakistan: the slaughter of over 130 children at a school in Peshawar.”

The Fascist Caliphate
By William Spach, Small Wars Journal: “Of the similarities, one of the most foundational is an emphasis on appealing to disenfranchised members of a middle class and the groups’ exploitation of middle class identity to achieve their goals."
The death of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emir will disrupt the group in the near term and may cause it to fracture. A U.S. airstrike killed TTP emir Mullah Fazlullah in eastern Afghanistan on June 13. The al Qaeda-linked TTP fractured after Fazlullah replaced Hakimullah Mehsud in 2013. Fazlullah appointed a Mehsud faction leader as the deputy leader of TTP in order to reconstitute the group in 2017. TTP deputy leader Noor Wali, who belongs to the Mehsud faction, may be able to preserve the group’s unity if selected as emir.
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OMAN'S DANGEROUS DOUBLE GAME, IRAQI'S SADR CAMP MOVES TOWARD IRAN AGAIN & IRAN'S KURDISH INSURGENCY GAINS GROUND; REFORMING JORDAN

6/13/2018

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FDD
 Iraq's Sadr announces political alliance with pro-Iranian bloc
(Al Jazeera) The move is the first serious step towards forming a new government in Iraq after weeks of negotiations between parties. 
 Kurdish militancy in western Iran, read “Iran’s Kurdish Insurgency” by Paul Bucala and Shayan Enferadi.]
  • WINEP’s Ghaith al-Omari and Ben Fishman: Jordan’s economic protests: Repackaging reform
Ghaith al-Omari and Ben Fishman write: The United States is already providing record assistance to Amman, and the kingdom’s Gulf allies pledged an additional $2.5 billion aid package to help mitigate the immediate financial pressures. The task now is to maximize the effectiveness of this new aid and help the Jordanian government renegotiate its commitments to the IMF. - Washington Institute
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BATTLE BETWEEN ISRAELI GENERALS IS ON:  OBJECT IRAN

6/13/2018

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ISRAEL: Israel's Battle of the Ex-Generals 
By Ben Caspit, Al-Monitor: “Behind the scenes, a real political battle is being waged: the battle of the generals. On the political stage stand former chiefs of staff, generals, defense ministers and Mossad higher-ups, all of whom want to jump into the political waters. What unites them is their bitter grudges against Netanyahu and their strong desire to bring about his replacement.”
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TALIBAN CEASEFIRE HOAX, SYRIAN AIR DEFENSES IN GOLAN & TRUMP DOCTRINE FOR MIDDLE EAST

6/12/2018

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  • Taliban launches attacks as Afghan government ceasefire starts
The civil-military divide extends all the way to the Afghan battlefield
(Task & Purpose) The ignorance of the civil-military divide carries over to Afghanistan, where troops bear the burden of propping up the government of a war-torn society. 

TRUMP DOCTRINE FOR MIDDLE EAST
Syria enhances air defenses near Israeli-occupied Golan Heights 
The Syrian army has reinforced anti-aircraft defenses in the country’s southwest, near the Golan Heights, and intends to deploy additional defenses in the coming days as tensions with Israel escalate, a pro-regime commander said Tuesday. Israel struck some 50 Iranian targets in Syria last month in response to Iranian missile launches and is reportedly lobbying the Donald Trump administration to recognize its hold over the Golan, which it captured from Syria in 1967. Meanwhile, the commander said Syrian government forces and their allies are ready to launch an offensive against rebel-held areas in southwestern Syria despite US warnings that “firm and appropriate measures” will be taken against any violation of the de-escalation deal.  Read More  ​
The Taliban Made War. Are They Showing They Can Make Peace? 
By Ahmad Shuja Jamal, The Diplomat: “The Taliban’s announced ceasefire represents a tentative move toward peace. Will it hold?”
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TALIBAN TARGET CO-RELIGIONISTS INSIDE AFGHANISTAN

6/6/2018

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Don’t Buy the Pentagon’s Statements on Afghanistan 
By Jerrod A. Laber, RealClearDefense: “The Taliban has been slowly reasserting itself, corruption is rampant, and reconstruction projects deliver limited or no results.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/05/taliban-and-islamic-state-target-religious-opponents-in-afghanistan.php
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HAMAS 'HAIL MARY' HITS ISRAELI IRON DOME

6/6/2018

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TUNISIA:  HOME OF ARAB SPRING SEES POLITICAL EVOLUTION

6/6/2018

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Political wrangling within Tunisia's leading party points to power struggle
Whoever takes over Tunisia’s leadership eight years after the revolution will face an array of challenges, not least addressing the long-held grievances of much of the population and safeguarding the country’s democratic gains.
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TURKS TACTICAL BEAR HUG WITH RUSSIA & SEEK TO CLEAR OUT KURDISH TOWNS IN IRAQ; MOSCOW SPARS WITH HEZBOLLAH IN SYRIA

6/5/2018

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Russia spars with Hezbollah over deployment in southern Syria 
Russia's troop deployments near Syria’s Lebanese border are causing friction with Iran-backed forces including Hezbollah, which said the Russian move had been uncoordinated with them. The situation was resolved on Tuesday when Syrian army soldiers took over three positions where the Russians had deployed near the town of Qusair in Homs province, a non-Syrian military commander told Reuters. “It was an uncoordinated step. Now it is resolved,” said the commander, adding Hezbollah fighters were still located in the area. “The Syrian army … is deploying at the border.”  Read More  ​
MIDDLE EAST FORUM:  TURKEY'S TACTICAL BEAR HUG WITH RUSSIA
Turkish military looks to clear out Kurdish stronghold in Iraq 
The Turkish military could soon launch operations to clear Kurdish rebel bases in the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq, Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said Monday. "It is not a matter of operation, but a matter of timing. Qandil is no longer a faraway goal for us," Soylu said, referring to the mountainous area of Iraqi Kurdistan near the Iraq-Iran border, a hideout for the leadership of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) that has fought Ankara since 1984. Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said Tuesday that Turkey now has 11 bases in northern Iraq.  Read More  ​

Turkey says US agreed to remove Kurdish allies from Syria's Manbij 
The bilateral road map for the contested Syrian city of Manbij negotiated by Turkey and the United States will remove US-backed Kurdish fighters from the area, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Monday after talks with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Washington. Cavusoglu said the implementation of the road map, including parameters for withdrawing Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and setting up local governance structures, “should take less than six months” as US-Turkish military patrols take over security. “We will begin to get rid of one of the issues marring our ties with the United States,” Cavusoglu said of the planned road map. A joint readout of Monday’s meeting, however, made no mention of Kurdish withdrawal from Manbij.  Read More  ​

Turkey bombs Kurdish safe haven in Iraq 
The Turkish air force bombed several villages in northern Iraq on Tuesday, destroying 16 targets and killing at least six Kurdish militants, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Tuesday. As part of an effort to root out safe havens of Turkey's outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party, the Turkish army advanced nearly 16 miles into Iraqi territory over the past few days toward the group’s outposts in the Qandil Mountains. “Qandil is next, Sinjar is next. We will face up to whoever is threatening, disturbing my country,” Erdogan said during a campaign rally ahead of June 24 presidential and parliamentary elections.  Read More  ​
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LIBYA'S HIFTER MOVING TOWARD VICTORY:  OFFENSIVE ON

6/5/2018

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Hifter forces close to ‘imminent’ victory in Libya’s Derna 
Forces loyal to Libyan military commander Khalifa Hifter said Monday their offensive to retake the eastern city of Derna from Islamists is in its final stages after victories in several districts. Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) advanced in the district of Sheiha over the weekend. “There are still pockets of resistance,” LNA spokesman Gen. Ahmed al-Mesmari said as clashes continued on Monday. Hifter, who is allied with Libya’s eastern-based government, launched a military offensive earlier this month to “liberate” Derna, the last major bastion of opposition to the LNA in eastern Libya.
Separately, Libya’s UN-backed Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj met on Monday with Tunisian Foreign Minister Khemaies Jhinaoui in Tripoli. The two officials discussed ways to promote dialogue between Libya’s rival factions in order to reach a political solution.
  Read More  ​
Libya’s Hifter says 'victory is near' in Derna 
Libyan military commander Khalifa Hifter said on Monday his forces will soon declare victory in the eastern city of Derna, the last major bastion of opposition to his self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) in the area. Hifter, who is allied with Libya’s eastern-based government, launched a military offensive earlier this month to “liberate” the city of Derna from Islamists who have occupied it since the 2011 uprising against Moammar Gadhafi. In a video published on YouTube, Hifter said his forces are ready to enter the city and take control after clearing its suburbs. A spokesman for the LNA said today that Hifter’s forces have managed to capture 75% of the city.  Read More  ​
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RUSSIA'S GORDIAN KNOT UNRAVELING IN MIDDLE EAST & QATAR SEEKS THE RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE S400 DRAWING SAUDI ANGER

6/5/2018

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The Russian Gordian Knot begins to unravel
 NORMAN A. BAILEY
Winston Churchill famously described the Soviet Union as “A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” Many commentators and politicians say Vladimir Putin’s Russia is every bit as mysterious and enigmatic as its predecessor. An astonishing recent declaration by the president, however, at the Russian equivalent of the Davos conclave, in St Petersburg, casts a whole new light on the country's involvement in the Middle  East, which in recent years has become more..


Defiant Qatar determined to proceed with S-400 deal
 NICOS PANAYIOTIDES
The primary goal of any state is first and foremost to ensure its security, while other goals (social justice, prosperity, etc) are secondary. This is because of the anarchic nature of the international system, which has no supreme authority to safeguard the state’s national interests. Qatar is not an exception to this rule of international relations. Being in a threatening regional environment, it seeks to balance any threats to its security posed by local actors,...
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SURPRISE FOR PAKISTANI ELECTIONS:  ESTABLISHMENT WILL LOSE & THE ARMY'S ENDURING GRIP ON POLITICS

6/5/2018

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Pakistan’s next election will pave the way for progress
Pro-establishment forces facing defeat in Pakistan election
 IMAD ZAFAR
A recent survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit has predicted a win for the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) in the general elections. According to the survey, the PML-N will form a government in the province of Punjab and Shahbaz Sharif could become the next prime minister of Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif would continue to enjoy influence over the party if it wins in the general elections, according to the survey. Earlier, a survey conducted by Gallup...

The army’s enduring grip on Pakistani politics
 VIVEK KATJU
As Pakistan proceeds into national elections scheduled for July 25, the Pakistan Army is maintaining its political neutrality. During a press conference on June 4, Major General Asif Gafoor, the army’s main spokesman, appealed to political parties not to drag it into the elections. He said that all allegations concerning its interference in the country’s political life had been proved wrong. Significantly, Gafoor refused to comment on former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s hostile comments...
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