- WINEP’s Mohamed Soliman: To counter Iran, Trump must rebuild a united Gulf
How the Iran sanctions drama intersects with OPEC-plus
BY PEPE ESCOBAR
Major states buying oil from Iran are unlikely to heed the US call to drop imports; key allies want a waiver to avoid sanctions; OPEC, meanwhile, will have trouble boosting output in the short-term; the puzzle is not solved, but there are dark clouds
BY PEPE ESCOBAR
Major states buying oil from Iran are unlikely to heed the US call to drop imports; key allies want a waiver to avoid sanctions; OPEC, meanwhile, will have trouble boosting output in the short-term; the puzzle is not solved, but there are dark clouds
- Merchants protest worsening economic situation in several major cities.Thousands of shopkeepers and citizens have taken to the streets around major marketplaces in Iran to protest the rapid devaluation of the Iranian rial and the rising costs of goods since June 24. Protests peaked on June 25 and have died down significantly since then. Merchants and everyday Iranians went on strike and closed their shops in major cities including Tehran, Arak (Markazi Province), Shiraz (Fars Province), Tabriz (East Azerbaijan Province), and Kermanshah (Kermanshah Province), among several others. Protesters chanted anti-regime slogans during the demonstrations. The BBC reported that the demonstrations in Tehran were the largest protests in the city since 2012. Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) employed tear gas to disperse protesters and injured many demonstrators. The protests follow a record low valuation of the Iranian rial before the start of the protests on June 24. The rial has devalued by nearly 40 percent since the May 8 U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). (BBC) (E)(Reuters) (E) (Reuters) (E) (Instagram)
- Parliamentarians call for change in Rouhani’s economic team following Bazaar protests. Parliamentarians voiced their dissatisfaction with the President Hassan Rouhani administration’s economic performance. Conservative Parliamentarian Hamid Reza Hajji Babaei called for the “reshuffling or change in the government’s economic team.” Babaei warned that Parliament will be forced to make the changes by interpellating cabinet members if Rouhani is unable to institute the necessary changes. (Mehr News Agency)
- Etemaad floats rumors for CBI Governor replacement. Reformist newspaper Etemaad reported on June 28 that Rouhani was considering replacing Central Bank of Iran (CBI) Governor Valiollah Seif with former Economic Affairs and Finance Minister Ali Tayyeb Nia in order to appease demands for change within his economic team. Parliamentarians have interpellated several ministers over previous months including Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh and Labor Minister Ali Rabiei. Parliament is also soon expected to initiate the interpellation of Economic Affairs and Finance Minister Massoud Karbasian. (Jam-e Jam) (Alef) (Etemaad) (Fars News Agency)
- Safavi suggests Iran might be better off without the government. Senior Military Advisor to the Supreme Leader IRGC Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi stated that “sometimes, it appears that the country would be run better if the government didn’t exist” on June 25, one day after the beginning of economically-driven protests in Tehran. Safavi attributed part of the people’s dissatisfaction with the government to the “failures of leaders,” a likely reference to the President Hassan Rouhani administration. Safavi later accused certain media outlets on June 27 of “incorrectly reflecting” his comments. Safavi’s statements are indicative of a growing sense of dissatisfaction amongst senior IRGC officials with the Rouhani administration. (Vatan-e Emrooz) (BBC Persian) (Aftab News)
- Rouhani: convergence of foreign and domestic pressures is “fatal.”President Hassan Rouhani expressed his concern with foreign and domestic pressures working together to attack the government during a televised speech on June 27. Rouhani called the convergence of foreign and domestic pressures from within Iran “fatal.” Rouhani reacted to recent calls for a change in his administration and uncharacteristically scolded critics of his government. Rouhani exclaimed that those “who think that the government is scared, will resign, or will give up in [the face of these pressures], are wrong!” Rouhani’s statements follow increased calls from parliamentarians for a “reshuffling” of Rouhani’s economic team. (President.ir) (President.ir) (President.ir)
- Vaezi: reshuffling of cabinet not certain as of yet. President Hassan Rouhani’s Chief of Staff Mahmoud Vaezi refused to confirm rumors of changes to Rouhani’s economic team on June 27 but stated that the “reshuffling of the cabinet is not certain [yet].” Vaezi suggested that Rouhani is the sole decision maker regarding any possible changes to his economic team. (Tabnak)
The Trump administration’s effort to drive Iranian oil exports down to “zero” is boosting the fortunes of Tehran’s rival, Saudi Arabia, and putting the U.S. ally on a stronger footing for a showdown across the Persian Gulf. - Wall Street Journal
Iran had been pushing hard for oil producers to hold output steady as U.S. sanctions are expected to hit its exports, meaning Tehran had little to gain from OPEC production increases that lower oil prices and cut its revenue. But Saudi Arabia and Russia had other ideas. - Reuters
The United States is prepared to work with countries on a case by case basis to help them reduce imports of Iranian oil as Washington prepares to reimpose sanctions against Tehran in November, a State Department official said on Thursday, suggesting the Trump administration could offer waivers. - Reuters
Iran’s position in the oil market is looking weaker than ever as a bruising OPEC meeting and tightening net of U.S. sanctions leave it with fewer friends and fleeing customers. - Bloomberg
India’s oil ministry has asked refiners to prepare for a ‘drastic reduction or zero’ imports of Iranian oil from November, two industry sources said, the first sign that New Delhi is responding to a push by the United States to cut trade ties with Iran. - Reuters
Mohamed Soliman writes: In order to bring this conflict to a conclusion, Washington must work to contain and resolve the Gulf crisis. Left to fester, this clash will undermine broader U.S. strategic efforts to contain Iran—the United States cannot effectively deal with the Iranian threat without ensuring that Washington has a united ally base in the region. - Washington Institute
Alex Vatanka writes: Since its 1979 revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran has incited violent, radical, and often sectarian nonstate groups across the Middle East to serve as proxies in its military campaigns to influence regional and international politics. This “proxy model” has become increasingly salient since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and more recently in Iraq and Syria, and is now Iran’s primary tool for advancing its regional interests. - Middle East Institute
Iran had been pushing hard for oil producers to hold output steady as U.S. sanctions are expected to hit its exports, meaning Tehran had little to gain from OPEC production increases that lower oil prices and cut its revenue. But Saudi Arabia and Russia had other ideas. - Reuters
The United States is prepared to work with countries on a case by case basis to help them reduce imports of Iranian oil as Washington prepares to reimpose sanctions against Tehran in November, a State Department official said on Thursday, suggesting the Trump administration could offer waivers. - Reuters
Iran’s position in the oil market is looking weaker than ever as a bruising OPEC meeting and tightening net of U.S. sanctions leave it with fewer friends and fleeing customers. - Bloomberg
India’s oil ministry has asked refiners to prepare for a ‘drastic reduction or zero’ imports of Iranian oil from November, two industry sources said, the first sign that New Delhi is responding to a push by the United States to cut trade ties with Iran. - Reuters
Mohamed Soliman writes: In order to bring this conflict to a conclusion, Washington must work to contain and resolve the Gulf crisis. Left to fester, this clash will undermine broader U.S. strategic efforts to contain Iran—the United States cannot effectively deal with the Iranian threat without ensuring that Washington has a united ally base in the region. - Washington Institute
Alex Vatanka writes: Since its 1979 revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran has incited violent, radical, and often sectarian nonstate groups across the Middle East to serve as proxies in its military campaigns to influence regional and international politics. This “proxy model” has become increasingly salient since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and more recently in Iraq and Syria, and is now Iran’s primary tool for advancing its regional interests. - Middle East Institute
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