CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR - CounterStrikeMedia

GROUND HOG DAY FOR ISRAEL IN DISOWNING BEN GURION'S VISION OF ISRAEL

6/30/2019

Netanyahu, Barak locked in dirtiest fight yet
The upcoming Israeli elections are already reminiscent of 1999, when Ehud Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu first exchanged vitriolic rhetoric and outrageous accusations.

Netanyahu to pass Ben-Gurion in time served, but not in stature
Israel’s first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, and its incumbent prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who will soon break the record set by the former as the country's longest-serving premier, represent opposing worldviews and aspirations.

Disowning Ben-Gurion's Vision
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, July 11, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The rejection by Israeli intellectuals of Jewish spiritual and political activism, as exemplified in the preaching and actions of Rabbi Akiva, who was executed by the Romans for his support of the Bar-Kochba revolt (132-35 CE), runs counter to the thinking of David Ben-Gurion, who considered himself a disciple and successor of the eminent sage.
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Palestinians’ ‘opportunity of the century’
Why they — or at least those who lead them — are not interested.

WHAT A NEW IRAN DEAL WOULD LOOK LIKE & THE POSSIBILITIES OF REGIME CHANGE FOR IRAN

6/29/2019

REAL CLEAR POLITICS

A U.S.-Iran War Will Not Be Fought Only in Iran by Seth Frantzman
The National Interest
July 2, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58872/a-us-iran-war-will-not-be-fought-only-in-iran

AMIR TAHERI ON IRANIAN SANCTIONS

What’s Next on Tehran’s Nuclear File?

A New Strategy Toward Tehran: Exploit Iran's Fear
By Dmitri Shufutinsky, June 26, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Iranian regime’s worst fear is a foreign invasion. In order to bring the mullahs to the negotiating table, the US should eliminate the regime’s proxies in Iran’s Iraqi and Syrian “near-abroad” and bring that threat into full relief.
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Iran shifts to higher-risk strategy as Trump bears down on pressure campaign
After exercising "strategic patience" for a year, Iran has shifted its strategy to one of calibrated escalation on the nuclear, regional and diplomatic fronts to try to secure economic relief, deter US adventurism and better position itself for possible future talks.

What “Yes” With Iran Looks Like
Mark Dubowitz, Reuel Marc Gerecht and Behnam Ben Taleblu — FDD Research Memo
Even amidst a flurry of press reporting about U.S. military deployments to the Persian Gulf, President Donald Trump appears to remain committed to negotiations for a new deal with Iran. But what should the contours of such an agreement be, and how should the U.S. conduct diplomacy with the Islamic Republic? This memorandum aims to provide a crash course in such diplomacy, focusing on how to address Iranian intentions, strategies, and.... Read More

Reconfiguring Geopolitics In The Era Of The Surveillance State: The Uyghurs, The Chinese Party-State, And The Reshaping Of Middle East Politics
by Kelly A. Hammond via The Caravan
We are living in the era of the surveillance state. People are starting to understand the political implications that the connections between technology and state power may have on individual privacy and civil rights. As Artificial Intelligence (AI) and facial recognition technology become available to states around the world, they are faced with making a choice whether to use them to monitor their own populations. While San Francisco just became the first city in the United States to ban the use of AI for policing, authoritarian states, like the United Arab Emirates, regularly consult and buy software from Chinese tech firms to control and monitor their own populations.

FDD Report Details How Trump Administration Can Create a New Iran Deal
Extensive period of intense sanctions critical ahead of agreement on nuclear, non-nuclear issues.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/06/for-regime-change-in-iran/

THE CARAVAN & STRATEGIKA FROM HOOVER, NEW ISSUE

6/29/2019

'Strategika'

The Caravan: Competition For Influence In The Middle East
via The Caravan
Issue 1922 of The Caravan is now available online. The journal is a periodic symposium on the contemporary dilemmas of the Greater Middle East.

Foreign Influence & The Middle East
by Hafed Al-Ghwell via The Caravan
Today, America finds itself in roughly the same waters that drowned British ambitions in the Middle East between 1946–1969. In less than two decades, Washington has vacillated from direct intervention to calls to “share the region,” which have now been supplanted by the “America First” diplomacy of bold declarations that favor smaller, “face-saving” compromises.

Foreign Interference Everywhere
by Reuel Marc Gerecht via The Caravan
“Foreign interference” is a phrase often heard in the Middle East. In the pre-modern era, Muslim dynasties continuously challenged each other. The idea of “foreign” intrusion was, however, religiously defined: there were Greek and Latin Christians in the west, Mongol Shamanists and Hindus to the east. The recurring and intense wars between the Ottomans and the Safavids, where sultans and shahs attempted in their diplomatic correspondence to strip each other of legitimacy, were an intramural match, despite the Sunni–Shiite clash, where victory on the battlefield determined who owned what.

AN ARAB SPRING FOR EVERYBODY & TUNISIA ROCKED BY SUICIDE BOMBERS

6/27/2019

Russia Joins Gulf States in Coaching Sudan's Military
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, July 9, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Russia has emerged as Saudi Arabia’s and the UAE’s silent partner in assisting the Sudanese military’s efforts to weaken, if not defeat, a months-long popular revolt that has already toppled president Omar Bashir.
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Algeria’s Hirak presses on with unparalleled achievements
Algeria’s popular protests, or Hirak, entered their 20th week on July 5, with thousands of demonstrators flooding city streets.

Algerian parliament elects Islamist opposition figure as new speaker
Algeria’s parliament elected Islamist leader Slimane Chenine as its new speaker on Wednesday. Chenine, a member of the opposition National Construction Movement, replaces Moad Bouchareb, who resigned last week following months of protests against the country's ruling elite.
Separately, Algeria’s Supreme Court ordered the detention of former Industry minister Youcef Yousfi on Wednesday on charges of “dissipation of public funds” as part of an anti-graft investigation. Protests continue despite the resignation of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika as Algerians demand a transition to democracy and the trial of figures linked to the former regime.
Read More 

Arab, Russian, and Pakistani Protesters Learn the Lessons of 2011
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, June 27, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Demonstrators in Sudan, Algeria, and nations beyond the Middle East such as Pakistan and Russia are applying lessons learned from the 2011 popular Arab revolts as the Sudanese military uses an apparent Saudi-United Arab Emirates template to crack down.
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Twin attacks rock Tunisian capital
The Islamic State claimed responsibility for two suicide bombings that rocked the Tunisian capital on Thursday at the peak of tourism season and months ahead of a general election. The Interior Ministry said the first blast targeted a security patrol in central Tunis, killing one officer and wounding another along with three civilians. Ten minutes later, a second suicide bomber blew himself up at the back door of a police building in a complex housing the headquarters of an antiterrorism brigade in the city. The ministry said four security officers were wounded.
Shortly after the two attacks, President Beji Caid Essebsi, 92, was “taken seriously ill and transferred to the military hospital in Tunis,’’ the Tunisian presidency said in a post on Facebook. Some media reports claimed the president had died, but they were denied by the presidency.
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Algeria's Hirak marches on in the face of official warnings
Algeria’s predominantly young protesters have proven resistant to any attempt to hijack their cause and bend it to any end but their own.

Can Sudan’s Military Be Convinced to Support Democracy? by Nathaniel Allen and Sharan Grewal

LESSONS FROM IRAQ & IS US OUT OF OPTIONS WITH IRAN; AL-MONITOR EXAMINES DEMOCRATIC PARTIES POLICY ON MIDDLE EAST

6/21/2019

Al-Monitor covers US Democratic candidates' Middle East record
Wonder how the 20 presidential candidates who made the cut for next week's Democratic primary debates stack up on Middle East policy? Al-Monitor's new 2020 tracker delves deep into their voting records and public statements to bring you the most comprehensive overview anywhere of the front-runners' stances on issues such as Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Read More

Lessons from the Iraq War
Hal Brands and Peter D. Feaver | NationalReview.com

CENTCOM TALKS-UP ABOUT OMAN, MIDDLE EAST ORDER AND MEETING COUNTER-TERROR OBJECTIVES IN AFGHANISTAN

6/15/2019

Opinion: America’s three big mistakes in Afghanistan
(Military Times) Indeed, the entire war is a story of one mistake after another, putting success or “victory” as we typically define it further out of reach.

Congress and the Iran and Saudi Arabia problem
Danielle Pletka | AEIdeas
Donald Trump is far from an ideal champion of American interests in the world, but he is not confused about the need to range allies on our side in the Middle East against Iran. It is hard to say the same about congressional Democrats and their fellow travelers.

U.S., MIDDLE EAST:
CENTCOM: ‘No Interest’ in New Conflict in Middle East
From Reuters: “The United States has no interest in engaging in a new conflict in the Middle East but will defend American interests including freedom of navigation, the U.S. military said on Thursday as it directed a destroyer to the scene of an attack in the Gulf of Oman."

Meeting U.S. Counterterrorism Objectives in Afghanistan
By Francis X. Tailor, RealClearDefense: "As anybody who has been monitoring America’s 18-year military involvement in Afghanistan will tell you, ending a war that has persisted for a generation is border-line “mission impossible.”"

Hanin Ghaddar writes: After seven years of international efforts to resolve their maritime border dispute, Lebanon and Israel seem close to agreeing on a framework to negotiate the issue in order to accelerate offshore oil and gas exploration. […]At the same time, there may be opportunities to at least discuss important matters beyond the technical details of border demarcation. […]Yet negotiators could still use them as a lever to kick off a national defense dialogue—which could in turn bring more domestic pressure to bear on Hezbollah’s efforts to expand its arsenal of missiles and other advanced weapons. – Washington Institute

The Afghanistan Conundrum
By Amin Saikal, The Strategist (ASPI): "Afghanistan’s problem is not primarily a military one. Despite the ANA’s heavy losses (more than 45,000 personnel since mid-2014) and increased insecurity in the country, the army has managed to prevent the Taliban from taking over any major city on a lasting basis."

INDIA GETS A NEW DEFENSE MINISTER, HERE'S WHY

6/9/2019

ASIA TIMES: WHY INDIA & US HAVE COMPETING INTERESTS

India gets a new defense minister
(Defense News) A senior politician of the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party has been appointed the new defense minister of India.

The New India Versus the Nuclear Revolution: The Future of Crises Among Nuclear Powers
by T. Negeen Pegahi

LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE LONG WAR & AEI'S ROAD TO THE CALIPHATE

6/8/2019

Katherine Zimmerman’s latest publication, Road to the Caliphate, which analyzes the Salafi-jihadi movement’s center of gravity, source of strength, and critical vulnerabilities.
Zimmerman’s report advises the United States to adapt its counterterrorism strategy to focus on the Salafi-jihadi movement’s key strength – its link to vulnerable Sunni communities – in order to achieve real progress in the fight against terrorist groups. The current approach, an unwinnable game of terrorist whack-a-mole, does not apply pressure to the movement globally and has not had lasting effects.

Michael Rubin writes: There any many flaws in Khalilzad’s plan: It revives the pre-9/11 formula of legitimizing Taliban rule in exchange for a Taliban pledge to close terror camps; it undercuts the legitimacy of the elected Afghan government; and it discounts the Taliban’s long history of insincere diplomacy and fleeting commitments. The biggest problem with Khalilzad’s approach, however, is it ignores a simple fact: There can be no peace in Afghanistan so long as Pakistan chooses to undercut Afghan stability and support extremism. The missing piece to the Khalilzad strategy, therefore, is how to bring Pakistan to heel. – The National Interest

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/06/caliphate-interrupted.php

Taliban leader claims US-led war effort ‘condemned to defeat’
Thomas Joscelyn – FDD’s Long War Journal

NETANYAHU HIT FROM THE RIGHT; DECIPHERING TRUMP'S APPROACH TO THE MIDDLE EAST

6/8/2019

YAAKOV KATZ: The Yisrael Beytenu head sits down with ‘The Post’ for an exclusive interview to talk about what happened in the coalition talks with Likud, and his plans for September 17.
Read more...

Trump’s New Approach to the Middle East
By Will Ruger, RealClearDefense: “ . . . continued “maximum pressure” could ultimately lead the United States into the very type of endless war in the Middle East that the president has rightly criticized in the past."

A SECOND ARAB SPRING? ALGERIA CANCELS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS & SUDAN GETS A CRACKDOWN

6/8/2019

Alberto M. Fernandez writes: While a four-sided struggle for power – SAF, NISS, RSF, and everybody else – rages in Khartoum, another struggle is being waged on a pan-Arab and international level to define a narrative for what is happening inside Sudan. In an incredibly cynical media ploy, Qatar, through its media proxies in Arabic and English, is pushing propaganda placing the blame for events in Sudan at the feet of its bitter enemies in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. – Middle East Media Research Institute

The financial fallout from Libya’s war is another blow for Tunisia. The North African country helped inspire the broader Arab Spring uprisings with its overthrow of autocrat Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. But while Tunisians now have democracy, financially they are struggling. – Reuters

Algeria orders arrest of a second ex-prime minister in graft case
Algeria’s Supreme Court on Thursday ordered the detention of former Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal as part of an anti-graft investigation. The move comes one day after another former premier, Ahmed Ouyahia, was ordered detained. Sellal, a close associate of former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, is being tried on charges of “dissipation of public funds.” Authorities have also arrested several of the country’s wealthiest businessmen. Protests in Algeria continue despite Bouteflika's resignation as Algerians demand a transition to democracy and the trial of figures linked to the former regime. Read More

Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir brutally crushed dissent during the three decades he ruled the North African nation. But his overthrow in April hasn’t ushered in peace. Instead, the military council that replaced him is accused of some of the worst-ever violence in the capital, Khartoum. – Bloomberg

Egypt's hand appears in play behind scenes in Sudan
The head of the Sudanese Transitional Military Council has visited Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, raising questions about Cairo’s role in Sudanese affairs.

Central Bank: 2019 will be difficult for Tunisian banks
Tunisia's financial and political quarters worry about an imminent liquidity crisis threatening the banking sector.

Algeria cancels presidential election
Algeria’s Constitutional Council on Sunday canceled the presidential election set for next month after rejecting the only two candidates who came forward. The interim presidency had designated July 4 for polling to replace Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who resigned in April after weeks of protests against his two-decade rule. The announcement extends the rule of interim President Abdelkader Bensalah until a new election is scheduled. Meanwhile, many Algerians continue to demonstrate in the street for a complete political overhaul. Read More 

Read why Salafi-jihadi groups stand to gain from Libya's renewed civil war.
Algerian protesters successfully pressured the government to delay presidential elections.
Our take on what follows Bouteflika.

Arab Spring: The Second Coming?by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
May 1, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58659/arab-spring-the-second-coming

ARAB REGIMES FOMENT CHAOS IN SUDAN

Algeria braces for protests on first Friday since election canceled
Protesters in Algeria are expected to take to the streets today to demand the resignation of interim President Abdelkader Bensalah and a complete political overhaul. Algeria’s Constitutional Council on Sunday canceled the presidential election set for July 4 to replace Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who resigned in April after weeks of protests against his two-decade rule. The announcement extends the rule of Bensalah until a new election is scheduled. Bensalah on Thursday called on the political class and civil society to hold an “inclusive dialogue” to prepare for a new election “as soon as possible.” Read More 

SUDAN'S ARMY GOES ARRESTS OPPOSITION

Bloomberg’s Eli Lake: Don’t let the Saudis ruin Sudan’s democratic moment

Tunisian prime minister elected to head new party after break with president
Tunisia’s Prime Minister Youssef Chahed on Sunday was elected president of a new secular party after clashing with the ruling party's leaders. Chahed broke from Nidaa Tounes in January and formed Tahya Tounes (Long Live Tunisia) after months of feuding with Nidaa Tounes leader Hafedh Caid Essebsi, the son of President Beji Caid Essebsi. The announcement comes as Tunisia gears up for parliamentary and presidential elections this fall. Read More 

Will Tunisian prime minister resign or run for president?
Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed has been elected head of Tahya Tounes, which has sparked fears among political circles that he might use his post to serve party interests.

CALIPHATE HAS GONE UNDERGROUND TO GROW RAPIDLY

6/8/2019

Road to the Caliphate: The Salafi-jihadi movement’s strengths

Katherine Zimmerman | June 2019

Successes on the battlefields against al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and other like-minded groups have not led to their defeat or permanently reduced their threat to the United States.

The deterioration of conditions in the Muslim world has made communities vulnerable to and created opportunities for the Salafi-jihadi vanguard to develop local ties.
The reliance of the Salafi-jihadi movement on its relationship with Sunni communities to strengthen and expand beyond ideological supporters is a key vulnerability.
The US should reorient its efforts to focus not only on disrupting and preventing active terror plots as a national security priority but also on severing the relationships the Salafi-jihadi movement has formed with Sunni communities.

AEI ARTICLE HERE

The Salafi-jihadist movement is winning
Katherine Zimmerman | RealClearWorld | February 12, 2019

Terrorism, Tactics, and Transformation: The West vs the Salafi-Jihadi Movement, Critical Threats Project
Katherine Zimmerman | American Enterprise Institute | November 15, 2018

America’s real enemy: The Salafi-jihadi movement
Katherine Zimmerman | American Enterprise Institute | July 18, 2017

LIBYA HANDS OVER TOP TERRORIST TO EGYPT

6/8/2019

Libya extradites top terrorist to Egypt
The Libyan National Army has handed convicted terrorist Hisham Ashmawi over to Egypt in what security officials call a major blow to terrorism in the region.

WINNING IN AFGHANISTAN MEANS HURTING PAKISTAN

6/8/2019

IMF LOANS

FATAL FIRING ON PASHTUNS EXPOSES FRAGILE ARMY LEADERSHIP

Winning in Afghanistan requires taking the fight to Pakistan
Michael Rubin | The National Interest
Absent any strategy to bring Pakistan in line, it is important that President Trump and National Security Adviser John Bolton call the Khalilzad process what it is: window dressing on surrender and an invitation to further terrorism against the American homeland.

Winning in Afghanistan requires taking the fight to Pakistan
Reuters
Absent any strategy to bring Pakistan in line, it is important that President Trump and National Security Adviser John Bolton call the Khalilzad process what it is: window dressing on surrender and an invitation to further terrorism against the American homeland, explains Michael Rubin.

Talking to the Taliban With the Wrong Assumptions: The Conundrum of Afghan Peace
by Moh. Sayed Madadi

NATO TURKEY BEGINS TRAINING ON RUSSIAN DEFENSE MISSILE SYSTEM S400

6/8/2019

What is Russia's strategy in Idlib?
Russia is playing the long game with Turkey in the battle for the Syrian provence of Idlib.

US-Turkey Relations At Precipice; Turks Start S-400 Training
By Colin Clark
The Pentagon appears to be ready to take further action in the long-running saga over Turkey and the F-35.

U.S. Stops Training Turkish Officers as F-35 Pilots
Aykan Erdemir | Senior Fellow Merve Tahiroglu | Research Analyst

Putin's Turkish Gambit
By Burak Bekdil, June 7, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The first-ever NATO member state to shoot down a Russian military jet has willingly fallen in line with Vladimir Putin’s “Turkish Gambit,” a strategy designed to drive a deep crack into the NATO alliance.
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HOW DO THE ARABS SURVIVE THE 2030 AGENDA

6/1/2019

Beyond 2030: Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa
Karen E. Young | American Enterprise Institute
Energy-dependent growth in the Middle East and North Africa region will be sensitive to shifts in Asian economies, new technology, and efficiency innovation.

Saudi Religious Moderation: How Real Is It?
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, June 6, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman is determined to promote an image of himself as a harbinger of Saudi religious moderation, but many observers suspect that the changes he has implemented are only skin-deep. His reforms may turn out to have more to do with public relations than with fundamental change.
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ISRAEL & ITS SUPREME COURT
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disaster_oslo.pdf
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HOW ISRAEL WINS: DANIEL PIPES
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prism_9-1.pdf
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FRAGILITY & FAILURE
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CIVILIAN LED APPROACH: THE LONG WAR
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US: THE LONG WAR GAME
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America's Anti-Colonial Wars Abroad
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RETHINKING EGYPT'S ECONOMY
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EGYPT: CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS, ECONOMY
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national-identity_web-1.pdf
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AFRICA'S POST COLONIAL ERA ENDING
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AFRICAN ARAB SPRING

AFRICAN ARAB SPRING
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ISHMAEL IS NOT FATHER OF ARABS

ISHMAEL NOT FATHER OF ARAB CIVILIZATION
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DEFEATING SECTARIANISM IN MIDDLE EAST

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SECULARISM, NATIONALISM, ISLAMISM: MAKING MODERN MIDDLE EAST
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CHANGING DYNAMICS OF SALAFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS

FOREIGN AFFAIRS - THE ARAB SPRING @ 5
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BIN SALMAN & THE REFORM OF SAUDI ARABIA
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NATIONAL INTEREST, ARAB SPRING
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FOLLOWING VISION 2030

HOOVER; ISLAMISM

MEF RADIO LIVE

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THE PAKISTAN READER

ARAB SPRING & POLITICAL REFORM
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ISRAELI NEWS NETWORK

THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM

250 YEARS OF AMERICAN IRREGULAR WAR

AEI - CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT: SALIFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS GROWING

ABBAS MILANI HOOVER PAGE: IRAN & U.S. RELATIONS

HOOVER INSTITUTION BLOG ON THE NEAR EAST

JEWISH INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY OF AMERICA

FATA PAKISTAN RESEARCH CENTER

ISRAELI NUCLEAR POSTURE & DOCTRINES

CONTAIN, DEGRADE, DEFEAT: PLAN FOR MIDDLE EAST

THE PLAN TO DEFEAT THE ISLAMIC STATE & al-QAEDA

CENTER FOR SECURITY, REGIONAL STUDIES, KABUL

AfPak POLICY OPTIONS

ISLAMISM & INTERNATIONAL ORDER

HOOVER INSTITUTION PUBLICATION ON U.S. NEAR EAST POLICY

Israeli Security & Gulf States

PRINCIPALS GUIDING US POLICY IN MIDDLE EAST

HOW ISRAEL WINS

FREE BOOKS ON MIDDLE EAST

AEI: GLOBAL JIHADI THREAT & BEYOND

HOOVER: OPERATIONAL GUIDE FOR THE LONG WAR

THE ETTINGER REPORT: U.S. ISRAELI RELATIONS

GOOGLE NEWS PAKISTAN

HOW TO WIN WORLD WAR IV

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE LONG WAR

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