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ISRAEL BOMBS IRAN

7/17/2020

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Turkey on the Warpath  by Uzay Bulut  •
With a Potential Iran-China Deal, Time for Israel to Reassess Its Policy
Will Israel Find Itself Facing Down Iran, Turkey, and the US in Libya?
By Irina Tsukerman, July 27, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel does not need to be directly engaged in combat to help its allies confront and prevail over mutual adversaries. In Libya, it can play a role in training LNA troops, provide important logistical and intelligence support, and politically influence Washington to cease its backing of the GNA and hostile Islamist militias and state actors.

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Trump's Dangerous Diplomacy with Erdoğan  By Shay Attias, July 26, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: America’s reputation as a credible actor is an essential matter for US foreign policy, but it has weakened significantly throughout this century. George Bush’s war on the “axis of evil” failed, and Barack Obama’s “red line” speech proved empty. Today, Donald Trump is abandoning allies and conducting dangerous diplomacy with anti-democratic tyrants.
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Libya: Russian Military Equipment Sent to Libya Despite Arms Embargo.  The Pentagon released satellite photographs on Friday alongside a statement saying that Russia was still supplying weapons, aircraft, and armored vehicles to Libya despite the arms embargo. Africa Command (AFRICOM) deputy director of intelligence General Gregory Hadfield said "the type and volume of equipment demonstrates an intent toward sustained offensive combat action capabilities, not humanitarian relief, and indicates the Russian Ministry of Defense is supporting these operations."  The Moscow Times Reuters RFE/RL

Israel: Defense Minister Visits Israel Defense Forces Northern Command Amid Tensions.  Defense Minister and alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz visited Israel Defense Forces Northern Command Sunday, to warn that Israel will continue to protect security interests.  Gantz said “The State of Israel has no interests in Syria or Lebanon, except for security interests” he added that Israel “will continue to ensure our security interests.”  Gantz explained that ensuring security included preventing entrenchment of Iranian forces, blocking transfer of advanced weapons and preventing the development of precision missiles.  Albawaba Israel National News The Jerusalem Post
VOX
Explosion at Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran with Ariane Tabatabai
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/07/09/fortify-the-iran-sanctions-wall/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-cant-be-stopped-in-nuke-bid-but-can-be-deterred-says-former-mossad-chief/
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/middle-east/1594213363-iran-vows-to-bolster-syria-s-air-defenses-official
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/world/middleeast/iran-Natanz-nuclear-damage.html
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-launches-reconnaissance-satellite-into-space/
Why reassessing Israel’s risky relationship with China matters
Mark Dubowitz and Richard Goldberg — Ynet News
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently called on the United Nations Security Council to reimpose, or “snapback,” international sanctions and restrictions on the Islamic Republic of Iran – a terror-sponsoring regime that seeks to wipe Israel off the map. Just as the prime minister was speaking, another country was addressing the Security Council in defense of Iran: the People’s Republic of China. Read more
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WAR OF ALL AGAINST ALL:  THE MIDDLE EAST

7/4/2020

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The Mysterious Explosions at Iran's Nuclear Facilities
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, July 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Three incidents, including two explosions at nuclear facilities, have shaken Iran in recent days. Were they connected? Were they caused by accidents or were they carried out by a foreign power? If the latter, were they executed via cyberattack? And what will be their domestic and international implications?

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The Sovereignty Debate Has Changed Israeli Discourse
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, July 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The moment the issue of extending Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and parts of the West Bank emerged, it took on a dynamic of its own. Not only did the opposing sides’ positions grow sharper and more polarized, but the way claims are being made—accompanied by fear-mongering and threats—has changed the dynamic of the internal Israeli debate on the Israeli-Palestinian problem.

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Seth J. Frantzman writes: The US says it wants to confront Russia in Libya. Everyone seems to want a piece of the action. None of the countries involved seem to have any interest in the Libyan people or stabilizing the country after a decade of civil war. It looks more like a test bed for Turkish weaponry and Chinese drones, as well as for Russian and Turkish air-defense systems. – Jerusalem Post
The emerging narrative of China’s rise in the Middle East as a counter to American influence rests on the skewed portrayal of a few large investments. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Karen Young debunks the narrative and points out that Beijing gets far more credit than it is due for investments in the region. China’s agenda in the Middle East is about China, not about sharing a development ideology or improving access to capital. For all the hype around Beijing’s supposed advantage of state capitalism, China has not yet proved to be a good investor or a desirable development partner for the Middle East — and certainly not a great power. Read here.

According to a recent joint statement by Pakistan and Afghanistan, “The soil of either country should not be used against the other.” If Pakistani leaders are serious, Islamabad should no longer allow its soil to be used as a safe haven for Taliban leaders, argues Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. It is time for Pakistan’s civilian government and the military to recognize that the reason no one in Afghanistan takes its diplomatic promises seriously is that the road map is clear on how to fulfill them, but Pakistan so far refuses to even start moving in the right direction. Continue here.

Countering China as an economic power and alternate political and development model is a centerpiece of US national security policy. Countering China in the Middle East, however, has proved challenging due to inconsistencies in US policy and with the growing perception of China's attractiveness to the region, notes Karen Young in Al-Monitor article. Framing the discussion of China’s role in the Middle East as a zero-sum game of choosing either US or Chinese patronage has only increased Beijing’s clout in the region. But there is no stark choice for the Gulf states to decouple from Washington or Beijing, only opportunities lost. Learn more here
Anna Borshchevskaya on Russia's Military Activity in the Eastern Mediterranean
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Radio
July 5, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/61185/borshchevskaya-on-russias-military-activity-in-liby
Qatar's Anti-Saudi Seeds of the Islamist Quartet
By Irina Tsukerman, July 2, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Islamist Quartet consists of Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan, and Malaysia. The seeds of its agenda were planted by Qatari Emir Hamad’s and Libyan dictator Muammar Qhaddafi’s plot to take down the Saudi royal family and divide the Kingdom. Qatari lobbyists have since managed to bury the long history and strategic depth of these relationships by reshaping the narrative with a focus on the 2017 Gulf Crisis.

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Can Palestinian Despair Lead to End of Conflict? by Nave Dromi
JNS
June 25, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/61175/can-palestinian-despair-lead-to-end-of-conflic
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-putin-rouhani-to-hold-syria-talks-kremlin-156155

· https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/06/19/the-caesar-act-and-a-pathway-out-of-conflict-in-syria/
·       https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/lebanon-ambassador-hezbollah-shea-media-ban/2020/06/28/15adec2a-b89f-11ea-9a1d-d3db1cbe07ce_story.html
·         https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-iraq-s-leadership-is-finally-setting-limits-on-iranian-intervention-1.8962450
How Putin Is Winning in Syria by Leni Friedman Valenta and Jiri Valenta
Middle East Quarterly

Summer 2020 (view PDF)

https://www.meforum.org/61032/how-putin-is-winning-in-syria
Trump's Syria Policy Is Working by Jonathan Spyer
Foreign Policy
July 1, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/61178/trump-syria-policy-is-working
Why Is Russia Undermining International Efforts in Syria?
 
// Emma Beals
​
Western negotiators must give no ground in Moscow's attempts to evade its responsibilities.
How Palestinians Terrorize Their Own People  by Bassam Tawil  •
The Mullah's Spies and Assassinations in the West  by Majid Rafizadeh 
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