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centcom & The long war

JOHN BOLTON EXPLAINS HOW U.S. GETS OUT OF IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEAL & U.S. HITS TURKISH BACKED SYRIAN REBELS:  SYRIAN COMPLEXITY

8/30/2017

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JOHN BOLTON:  HOW U.S. GETS OUT OF IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEAL
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U.S. Coalition Returns Fire Against Turkish-Backed Syrian Rebels
Colonel Ryan Dillon, the U.S.-led coalition spokesman in Syria, said Tuesday that coalition forces exchanged fire with presumed Turkish-backed rebels near Manbij in northern Syria while patrolling the area. Coalition forces that have been “conducting patrols in the area to keep tensions down received fire multiple times over the course of the last two weeks,” Dillon told CNN. He also noted that Turkish-backed rebels firing on coalition forces “is not acceptable,” and that they had “let our counterparts in Turkey know this and we continue to conduct these patrols but are always prepared and ready to defend ourselves in that area.” The incident occurred roughly as U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis visited Turkey to meet with the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Dillon also made clear that Turkish soldiers were not directly involved in the recent attacks on U.S. personnel.

REGIONAL INTEL:  
The U.S.-led coalition forces include European support for the air war against ISIS as well as some 300 U.S. special operations forces and 400 U.S. Marines. The coalition backs the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a local alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias fighting against ISIS in Syria’s northwest. Turkey, a U.S. strategic partner in the region, has a long history of conflict with what they call Kurdish separatists – particularly the YPG, the main component of the SDF. Turkish-backed rebels, which originated as forces opposing the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, and SDF have exchanged small arms and artillery fire in the northern parts of Syria before, and Turkey has previously backed the fighters with its own tanks, air force, and special operations forces – though not in this instance. Coalition forces often conduct “overt patrols” in the area to deter clashes and play the role of peacekeeper between the parties. The incident highlights the complexity of the Syrian conflict with U.S.-backed forces clashing with Turkish-backed forces as well as the Russian-backed Syrian military, all of which are battling ISIS near Raqqa, the terrorist group’s stronghold and capital.
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BOKO HARAM, THE NIGERIAN INSURGENCY ROILING AFRICAN INTERIOR

8/30/2017

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Boko Haram Stalks Region Despite Territory Loss | Kaitlin Lavinder, The Cipher Brief
Suicide attacks and deaths attributed to the Nigerian terrorist group Boko Haram have been increasing over the first half of 2017. The group has shifted its strategy to rely heavily on suicide bombers hitting marketplaces and other soft targets in Nigeria and surrounding countries.

Tackling Insurgency in Nigeria Defies Single Formula | John Campbell, Former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria
"Haram is not a conventional organization like, say, ISIS. Boko Haram has indicated no particular interest in state building...It doesn’t want to recreate the Nigerian state. It wants to destroy the Nigerian state."

Underpaid Nigerian Army Struggles to Contain Boko Haram | Hilary Matfess, Research Analyst, National Defense University
"The Nigerian military made great headway against [Boko Haram] and retook some territory, but the issue has been holding that territory since then. We’ve seen a real unwillingness or inability on the Nigerian government’s part to deploy police and soldiers and really hold territory outside of urban centers."
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STATUS OF KURDISH INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT

8/30/2017

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As Independence Vote Nears, Iraqi Kurds Play a Risky Game of Chicken // Jon Alterman and Mara E. KarlinKurdistan's president called the referendum to extract concessions from Baghdad. What if it doesn't work?
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TRUMP'S GREAT GAME CALLED PAKISTAN:  1 WEEK AFTER ANNOUNCING NEW POLICY ARCHITECTURE EXPERTS WEIGH IN, THE STORY

8/30/2017

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FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY:  WHY U.S. & COALITION PARTNERS MUST HIT TALIBAN; VIDEO
GATESTONE INSTITUTE:  JOHN BOLTON ON THE DANGER OF A JIHADI PAKISTAN
AEI & WSJ:  CAN THE U.S. SUCCEED IN PRESSURING PAKISTAN?
Trump’s Great Game:   Since the US president announced last week a new plan for Afghanistan that involves a greater role for India in the war-torn country and accused Pakistan of providing “terrorist havens,” Islamabad has been struggling to construct an effective strategy in response, FM Shakil writes. While rejecting accusations that it harbors terrorists, Islamabad knows two things: that it cannot fully abandon support for militant groups because they provide a bulwark against India and that its economy still depends significantly on the US. Analysts predict that Washington’s policy of isolating Pakistan could push it closer to Russia, China, Turkey and Iran, dooming to failure US efforts to help the Afghan government bring stability and peace to the region.  READ THE STORY HERE
U.S., AFGHANISTAN: Afghan Intel Chief Speaks to Taliban Nearly Every Day 
By Kathy Gannon, AP: “Despite seemingly stalled peace talks between Afghanistan’s government and the Taliban, officials say the intelligence chief speaks by telephone with militant leaders nearly every day about the country’s constitution and political future.”
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THE TIP OF THE IRANIAN SPEAR INSIDE ISRAEL:  HAMAS

8/29/2017

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Hamas reconciles with Iran
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar touted reconciliation with Iran on Monday, calling Tehran “the largest supporter” of the movement’s armed wing. Sinwar’s first press briefing since his election in February pointed to improved ties between the two parties since their fallout over the war in Syria. Iran had reduced its aid to Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades after Hamas refused to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. "The relationship today is developing and returning to what it was in the old days,” Sinwar said, without providing details about Iran’s support.

Israel and Hezbollah Eye Their Next War | Fritz Lodge, The Cipher Brief
At the moment, Hezbollah deploys roughly 5,000 fighters in Syria – roughly one quarter of its standing forces. If and when those fighters return to Lebanon, Hezbollah leaders may feel emboldened to step up attacks on Israeli soil.

IDF Would Face an Old Foe Battle-Tested by Syria | David Schenker, Former Levant Country Director, Office of the Secretary of Defense
"Hezbollah has recruited additional troops, which they have deployed over 4 years or 5 years into Syria. They have gained valuable combat experience, developed an ability to launch offensive operations, which they never had before, and they have emerged with a larger core of battle-hardened troops."

An Israeli War with Hezbollah Risks War with Iran | Randa Slim, Director, Track II Dialogues Initiative, Middle East Institute
If Iran and Hezbollah were to expand their military presence near the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, Tel Aviv might come to the conclusion that it has no choice but to attack Hezbollah forces positioned there. Given Nasrallah’s recent warning of a multi-front war, the all-out battle that analysts have been predicting for the last 11 years might then become a fait accompli.

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WHY SAUDI VISION 2030 WILL FAIL

8/29/2017

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WHY SAUDI VISION 2030 WILL FAIL
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SAUDI ECONOMY PERMANENTLY TIED TO OIL EXPORT; MIDDLE EAST EYE
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FATE OF HOUSE OF SAUD RESTS ON IPO
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AFGHAN PASHTUN TALIBAN, RELENTLESS. . . THE STORY OF THEIR GEO-STRATEGIC SUPREMACY

8/29/2017

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Taliban supremacy. @billroggio @fdd

The Afghan Taliban overran two district centers in the east while Afghan forces regained control of another which has changed hands several times over the past year.

Afghan officials confirmed that the district of Zana Khan in Ghazni was overrun, while the Taliban claimed to have seized Gomal in Paktika province. Afghan officials then said that security forces regained control of Jani Khel in Paktia, however the Taliban has denied that claim.

A member of Ghazni’s provincial council said that the Taliban killed four policeman and confiscated two “tanks” (likely up-armored HUMVEEs) and several Ranger pickup trucks after storming the Zana Khan district center. Taliabn spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said that a Taliban force inflicted “multiple enemy casualties” and “lots of weapons/equipment seized” during the operation.

The Taliban claimed it “took over the center of the district of Gomal and its checkpoints in Paktika province during an intense fighting following an offensive last night.” While the Afghan press hasn’t reported on the status of Gomal, similar Taliban claims have proven highly accurate in the past.
In the neighboring province of Paktia, the Afghan military claimed it ousted the Taliban from the district of Jani Khel, which has alternated between government and Taliban control multiple times over the past year. The Taliban last overran the district two weeks ago and flaunted a large cache of weapons and ammunition taken from Afghan forces.

However, Taliban spokesman Mujahid claimed that Jani Khel is “under Mujahidin control” and the “enemy attack [was] repulsed.”

Over the past month, the Taliban has taken overrun eight districts centers. In addition to the three mentioned above, the Taliban has seized Khamab in Jawzjan, Ghormach and Kohistan (or Lolash) in Faryab, Taiwara in Ghor and Guzargah in Baghlan. Afghan forces have since retaken Kohistan and Taiwara, however these districts remain contested.

The Taliban continues to demonstrate that it can conduct concurrent operations across the country, while Afghan forces largely remain on the defensive.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal. Alexandra Gutowski is a military affairs analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
​
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/08/taliban-overrun-2-districts-in-afghan-east.php
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IRAN BUILDS TO HIT ISRAEL:  WHAT IS TO BE DONE?

8/29/2017

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Iran prepares for war with Israel and the region. @thadmccotter @elalusa Report w/Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres.

Their renewed cooperation shows that Hamas and the Iranians have patched up a relationship that deteriorated when they disagreed over support for Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. It also points to how Assad and Iran's wins in Syria strengthens Israel's terrorist enemies.

Iran has long supported Palestinian terrorist groups as well as Hezbollah, a Lebanese terrorist group that controls territory north of Israel. Sinwar's comments bolster concerns that U.S. officials and Congressional observers have had about the conflict in Syria. Although most public discussions about the Syria crisis have focused on the threat of the Islamic State, or Assad's willingness to use chemical weapons against his own people, major world powers have seen a subtler long-term significance to the outcome of the conflict.

Russia and Iran have partnered to support Assad, who had been weakened by the combined threats of U.S.-backed rebels and the radical terrorists who formed the ISIS caliphate. With their help, Assad has recaptured rebel-held territory, while the United States has focused on the defeat of ISIS.
​
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/hamas-leader-iran-helping-hamas-prepare-for-war-with-israel/article/2632784
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DANIEL PIPES TALKS TRUMP & ERDOGAN FOREIGN POLICIES

8/28/2017

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DANIEL PIPES
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EGYPT'S AL-SISI GOEST TO THE AFRICAN INTERIOR OVER NILE DAM PROJECT & CAIRO MOVES INTO RUSSIAN ORBIT

8/28/2017

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AL-MONITOR
AL-MONITOR
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KURDISH COUNTER-INTEL OFFICERS DISCOVER TURKISH ASSASSIN PLOT IN IRAK & RUSSIA'S REGIONAL PERSIAN GULF TOUR MEDIATION OF QATARI CRISIS BEGINS

8/28/2017

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Diyar Xerib (photo) Kurdish Target of Assassin Plot
AL-MONITOR

AL-MONITOR:  IRAN & IRAK SHOW NO INTEREST IN SHUTTING DOWN KURDS
Russia supports Kuwait mediation effort during Gulf tour
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Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah hosted Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday as part of Lavrov’s regional tour that will also include stops in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. The leaders discussed the Gulf crisis between Qatar and its neighbors and other regional developments in the region, with Lavrov stressing his country’s support for Kuwait’s mediation efforts.
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HOW TO PREVENT A NUCLEAR ARMS RACE IN MESOPOTAMIA, CAN IT BE DONE?

8/28/2017

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How to Prevent a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East 
By Jack Keane, Dennis Ross, Keith B. Alexander & Robert MacFarland, The National Interest: “There are two current trends in the Middle East that threaten to enable a nuclear arms race. A third offers a way to prevent it. The first concerns the very aggressive pace of Russia’s efforts to expand its influence throughout the Middle East from Egypt through Syria to Iran, and in the process to displace the United States as the preeminent power in the region.”
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U.S. AIR SUPREMACY IN MESOPOTAMIA & LEVANT UP FOR GRABS WITH RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES

8/28/2017

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U.S. Pilots Learn How Fast Air War Can Morph 
By Phil Stewart, Reuters: “U.S. pilots, who have enjoyed air supremacy against the insurgents they’ve been battling in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, cannot be sanguine about the risks posed by advanced Russian or Syrian jets or ground-based air defense in Syria.”
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U.S. POLICY TOWARD AL-SISI WRONG; STANCE TOWARD ANKARA IS BACKWARD, THE STORY

8/28/2017

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Washington chastises Sisi; Washington beseeches Erdogan @stevenacook, @cfr@elalusa Report w/Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres.

It warned that the cuts may have “negative consequences for the realization of common U.S.-Egyptian interests.” It did not elaborate.

However, an Egyptian presidential statement on Kushner’s meeting with el-Sissi made no mention of the aid cuts and delays, which totaled $290.7 million. El-Sissi, a general-turned-president who has repeatedly stated his admiration for Trump, showed none of the frustration expressed by the Foreign Ministry as he smiled while posing for a ceremonial photo with Kushner in the Egyptian leader’s opulent Cairo palace.

El-Sissi spoke to Kushner and his delegation about “Egypt’s keenness to continue to work on strengthening the multi-faceted relations that bind the two countries in various fields,” the statement said.

Of the $290.7 million, $195 million was military aid that the State Department said U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was not able to certify that Egypt had met the human rights criteria set by Congress in order to receive it. But because Tillerson signed a so-called national interest waiver, those funds will remain available to Egypt as long as it makes human rights improvements. Had Tillerson not signed the waiver, the money would have been returned to the Treasury by Sept. 30 — the end of the current fiscal year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/egypt-angered-by-us-aid-cut-over-human-rights-concerns/2017/08/23/86fa7bee-886b-11e7-96a7-d178cf3524eb_story.html?utm_term=.99eb4377ca92
​

•http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/washingtons-unfocused-decision-on-aid-to-egypt
​

•http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/UNITED_STATES_MIDDLE_EAST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-08-23-03-23-05
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YOU FIX KABUL BY GOING THROUGH ISLAMABAD & FIXING PAKISTAN MEANS ENDING THE EXPORT OF TERROR PROXIES

8/28/2017

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AEI'S FREDRICK KAGAN ON PAKISTAN'S WEAK COUNTER-TERROR POLICY
Ending Pakistan’s Export of Jihadists: The Key to Win in Afghanistan 
By Robert M. Cassidy, The Globalist: “A policy to win in Afghanistan requires a regional strategy that aligns political will and capacity to defeat the enemy’s strategy. This means undermining the Taliban’s strategic center of gravity – the external support and sanctuary that Pakistan continues to provide.”
Afghanistan is about Pakistan. @thadmccotter @andrewlpeek

"That is why shortly after my inauguration, I directed Secretary of Defense Mattis and my national security team to undertake a comprehensive review of all strategic options in Afghanistan and South Asia. My original instinct was to pull out. And historically, I like following my instincts.

But all my life I’ve heard that decisions are much different when you sit behind the desk in the Oval Office, in other words, when you’re president of the United States. So I studied Afghanistan in great detail and from every conceivable angle. After many meetings, over many months, we held our final meeting last Friday at Camp David with my cabinet and generals to complete our strategy.

I arrived at three fundamental conclusion about America’s core interests in Afghanistan. First, our nation must seek an honorable and enduring outcome worthy of the tremendous sacrifices that have been made, especially the sacrifices of lives. The men and women who serve our nation in combat deserve a plan for victory. They deserve the tools they need and the trust they have earned to fight and to win...."
​

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/21/world/asia/trump-speech-afghanistan.html?mcubz=1&_r=0
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ISRAEL NAMES THE NEXT IMMEDIATE WAR:  THE NORTH, LEBANON & IRANIAN PROXIES MOVING SOUTH

8/28/2017

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IDF names the next war, "War of the North." @elalusa Report w/Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres. @thadmccotter @bernieandsid

"“During the Second Lebanon War, we [Israel] didn’t have an early warning system and all the systems we have now,” he said, adding that he can “say with certainty that the Second Lebanon War was a trigger for Israel to get more effective defense systems.... The war made officials understand the need for them.”

Hezbollah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah has warned it is able to hit “the entirety of occupied Palestine with missiles.”

During the monthlong 2006 war, Hezbollah fired some 4,000 rockets at northern Israel, and it is believed that Israel faces the threat of thousands of rockets pounding the entire home front in the next war with the Shi’ite terrorist group.

“It’s very easy to deal with one rocket, but to deal with 100 or 200 rockets in one salvo [heading] to one specific place at one specific time is a major challenge,” he said. “There’s also no meaning to geography anymore. You cannot say any longer that the threat is only on our northern or southern border.
​
It’s also now Tel Aviv, Herzliya, Jerusalem – you name it.”


http://www.jpost.com/International/Preparing-for-the-next-missile-onslaught-501565
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BEIJING CONTINUES "CHARM OFFENSIVE" IN RIYADH; HOUSE OF SAUD GOES SOUTH TO YEMEN HITTING IRANIAN SHIA

8/28/2017

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China’s Global Charm Offensive 
By Andrea Little Limbago, War on the Rocks: “In one year alone, 450 million social media posts — roughly one in six — were fabricated in China. This is part of one of the most impactful global information operations campaigns since the end of the Cold War, but it has largely gone unnoticed. ”
Yemen rebels stand down after unprecedented internecine violence
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Members of Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement and loyalists of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh withdrew from the streets of the capital Sanaa on Sunday after unprecedented violence between the two previous allies. Saleh’s General People’s Congress had warned of strife in a statement on Sunday after clashes in the upscale Hadda district led to the death of the group’s deputy head of foreign relations, Col. Khaled al-Rida, and two Houthi rebels. 
The incident sparked fear of igniting all-out war in the rebel-controlled capital amid mutual accusations of treason, backstabbing and corruption within the fragile alliance between Saleh and the Houthis. The two erstwhile allies are fighting the internationally recognized government of Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi and the Saudi-led Arab military coalition that supports it.
China dips into Yemen's war. Saudia Arabia dips into Iraq's war. @michaelsinghdc @elalusa Report w/Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres.

Even though the Chinese government has not publicly released a detailed Yemen strategy, Chinese policymakers have consistently emphasized the need to bring hostilities in Yemen to a swift conclusion. A ceasefire in Yemen would help expand China’s military power projection capacity in the Middle East, centered on its new naval base in Djibouti.

A cessation of hostilities in Yemen would also have significant economic benefits for China, as it would give Beijing access to Yemen’s Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which links the Horn of Africa to the Middle East. Gaining access to this critical chokepoint will facilitate China’s objective of expanding the One Belt, One Road to Saudi Arabia, and allow China to actively participate in the trade of seaborne oil across Yemen’s maritime straits.

These strategic interests ensure that China’s principal goal in Yemen is preserving long-term political stability. Therefore, Beijing’s strategy in Yemen has consisted of backing the political faction that is most likely to reunite and stabilize the country. In the early stages of the conflict, Chinese officials viewed Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies as unilateral aggressors, which were destabilizing Yemen and preventing the Houthis from consolidating power. This interpretation of the Yemen conflict caused China to convince one of its leading international allies, Pakistan, to refrain from participation in the GCC military intervention in Yemen.

China’s strategic calculus began to change in late 2015, as the Houthis’ territorial expansion stagnated, and Hadi recaptured control over Aden. The Houthis’ loss of momentum and heightened international isolation caused Chinese policymakers to question the Houthis’ ability to guarantee Yemen’s long-term stability. These doubts were strong enough to convince Chinese policymakers to pivot towards Hadi’s pro-Saudi coalition. China’s shifting alignment was confirmed in January 2016, when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia and announced his support for Hadi’s “internationally recognized government” in southern Yemen.
​
·  http://thediplomat.com/2017/08/chinas-role-in-the-yemen-crisis/
·  http://thediplomat.com/2017/08/the-china-wildcard-in-the-qatar-crisis/
CHINA & SAUDI KINGDOM SIGN COMPACT
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ISRAELI POLITICO'S ENTER TEMPLE MOUNT

8/28/2017

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Israel to allow lawmakers to enter Temple Mount
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Israeli police decided Thursday to allow Knesset members to enter the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif compound next week as a “trial” to see whether such visits create security risks. According to the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “The decision was made in light of the improvement in the security situation at the compound.” Right-wing Knesset member Yehuda Glick tried to ascend to the disputed compound on Wednesday, but was denied entry by security forces. 
Knesset members visit Temple Mount after two-year ban

​
Two members of the Israeli Knesset visited the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif compound today for the first time since legislators were banned from the disputed site almost two years ago. Yehuda Glick and Shuli Mualem, respectively of the Likud and HaBayit HaYehudi parties, toured the compound accompanied by security forces after police approved a one-day "pilot" visit despite rising Palestinian anger at Israel’s perceived desire to change the status quo at the site. Across the stairs to the compound, protesters carried signs that read, "Crazy people, get down the mountain. Your pilot endangers us all.”
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IRAK'S HAKIM MOVES OUT OF IRANIAN SHADOW & RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER TOURS PERSIAN GULF

8/28/2017

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AL-MONITOR
Russian foreign minister to tour GulfRussia's Foreign Ministry announced today that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will tour the Gulf on Aug. 27-30. Lavrov will start his visit in Kuwait and then proceed to the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. He will meet with the leaders of all three countries, with the Saudi-led embargo against Qatar expected to dominate the talks. Lavrov is also expected to touch on the war in Syria and the implementation of de-escalation zones there. 
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TALIBAN STRIKE SUICIDE MISSION INSIDE KABUL MOSQUE

8/28/2017

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THE LONG WAR JOURNAL
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AMIR TAHERI ON IRANIAN VISIT TO ANKARA:  THE NEW TURN IN SUNNI - SHIA RIVALRY EMERGES LINKING PERSIA TO LEVANT

8/28/2017

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AMIR TAHERI
TURKEY'S MILITARY PURGE CONTINUES
Erdogan consolidates power over intelligence servicesA pair of new emergency decrees issued  Thursday put Turkey’s intelligence service under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is now the chairman of the National Intelligence Coordination Council, which oversees all intelligence matters. The move shields the intelligence agency from scrutiny as the decrees stipulate that any investigation into the performance of the intelligence chief will have to be approved by the president.
The decrees also dismissed 928 civilian and military staffers, while reinstating another 60 civil servants to their former posts. The ranks of 10 retired brigadier generals accused of endangering national security were annulled and their retirement benefits canceled.
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ISLAMIC AUTOCRACY MANAGES THE ARAB SPRING THREAT, WHAT IS STABILITY FOR ISLAMIC CIVILIZATION

8/28/2017

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THE MIDDLE EAST FORUM:  M.E.F.
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THE ARCHAIC VISION OF THE ISLAMIC STATE FOR SOUTH EAST ASIA

8/28/2017

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THE CIPHER BRIEF
SOUTHEAST ASIA IS NEW HOTSPOT FOR SUNNI TERROR
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FORMER ACTING DIRETOR OF CIA TALKS AFGHANISTAN POLICY & POLICY LEADERSHIP

8/28/2017

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IS RUSSIA REALLY ARMING THE TALIBAN
HOW TO UNDERSTAND TRUMP'S POLICY COMMITMENT TO AFGHANISTAN
DR. DANIEL MARKEY ON COERCION & PAKISTAN
CIPHER BRIEF:  U.S. PAKISTAN ON DIVERGENT PATHS IN AFGHAN POLICY
CIPHER BRIEF
FULL COVERAGE OF U.S. AFGHAN POLICY OPTIONS
AEI'S FRED KAGAN TALKS ABOUT TRUMP'S NEW AFGHAN POLICY, WITH OPTIONS
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WHY A GULF RIVALRY EXISTS?  POWER POLITICS, ETHNICITY & CHINA

8/25/2017

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AEI
China dips into Yemen's war. Saudia Arabia dips into Iraq's war. @michaelsinghdc @elalusa Report w/Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres.

Even though the Chinese government has not publicly released a detailed Yemen strategy, Chinese policymakers have consistently emphasized the need to bring hostilities in Yemen to a swift conclusion. A ceasefire in Yemen would help expand China’s military power projection capacity in the Middle East, centered on its new naval base in Djibouti.

A cessation of hostilities in Yemen would also have significant economic benefits for China, as it would give Beijing access to Yemen’s Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which links the Horn of Africa to the Middle East. Gaining access to this critical chokepoint will facilitate China’s objective of expanding the One Belt, One Road to Saudi Arabia, and allow China to actively participate in the trade of seaborne oil across Yemen’s maritime straits.

These strategic interests ensure that China’s principal goal in Yemen is preserving long-term political stability. Therefore, Beijing’s strategy in Yemen has consisted of backing the political faction that is most likely to reunite and stabilize the country. In the early stages of the conflict, Chinese officials viewed Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies as unilateral aggressors, which were destabilizing Yemen and preventing the Houthis from consolidating power. This interpretation of the Yemen conflict caused China to convince one of its leading international allies, Pakistan, to refrain from participation in the GCC military intervention in Yemen.

China’s strategic calculus began to change in late 2015, as the Houthis’ territorial expansion stagnated, and Hadi recaptured control over Aden. The Houthis’ loss of momentum and heightened international isolation caused Chinese policymakers to question the Houthis’ ability to guarantee Yemen’s long-term stability. These doubts were strong enough to convince Chinese policymakers to pivot towards Hadi’s pro-Saudi coalition. China’s shifting alignment was confirmed in January 2016, when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia and announced his support for Hadi’s “internationally recognized government” in southern Yemen.

·  http://thediplomat.com/2017/08/chinas-role-in-the-yemen-crisis/
·  http://thediplomat.com/2017/08/the-china-wildcard-in-the-qatar-crisis/
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    HOW ISRAEL WINS: DANIEL PIPES
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