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GEOPOLITICAL & nuclear TRENDS DOMINATING THE NEAR EAST LATE 2020

8/26/2020

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Trump Outside-In Mideast Strategy Takes To the Sky
By BENNY AVNI, Second Edition | August 30, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/trumps-outside-in-mideast-strategy-takes-to/91243/
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Will the UAE’s Barakah project launch new era of peaceful nuclear power in the Middle East?
 The recent operation of the reactor at the United Arab Emirates’ Barakah power plant is an important development for both the UAE and the Middle East region, as it marks a new step to break out from the deep and harmful reliance on fossil fuels for power generation.
Turkey’s tilt toward Pakistan provokes India’s ire
The government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is faced with a potential new foe, India, a close ally of Israel, that is loudly signaling it that may join swelling axis of anti-Turkey nations led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Greece.
The acrimony is being channeled through a spate of nasty articles in the Indian media casting Turkey as a malign meddler that is seeking to recruit and radicalize India’s estimated 182 million Muslims in cahoots with Pakistan.  Read Full Article  ​
Seth J. Frantzman writes: If the US wants to understand the mentality it is contending with, it should listen to Rouhani’s speech, which indicates Iran’s regime is not entirely deterred and believes it is on a historic mission. Its belief is bolstered by its own media coverage of support it is getting from other countries. – Jerusalem Post
Alex Fishman writes: It is safe to assume it’s not all about the killing of that same operative in Damascus, but also due to other actions taken by Israel against the organization, which have yet to be revealed to the public. Nasrallah needs a win, be it real or fictitious, to show to his followers.  And so, it is safe to assume the latest round against Hezbollah has not come to an end. – Ynet
Anton Mardasov writes: Going forward, Moscow will try to pressure Assad to introduce at least some superficial changes to the political system against the current backdrop of steadily worsening economic problems. Moscow expects to sell this as evidence that the country is going through a much-needed transformation. – Middle East Institute ​
Jonathan Spyer writes: Until now, however, no force has proven able to harness the potential Sunni power in Lebanon to its cause. […]As of now, however, the first signs are emerging that Sunni Islamist Turkey is seeking to fill the vacuum, and to recruit the Lebanese Sunni street to its banner. Something is happening in northern Lebanon. – Jerusalem Post
WINEP's Michael Knights: Inside the Kadhimi visit to Washington D.C
U.S. sanctions Chinese firms and executives active in contested South China Sea
Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said in an August 24, 2020 interview on Al-Alam TV (Iran) that Iran has 230 tons of heavy water, which he said is used for research. […]Kamalvandi said that Iran has over 1,000 tons of yellowcake and over 3 tons of uranium enriched to 4-4.1%, and he explained that this uranium stockpile is ten times larger than the amount agreed upon in the JCPOA. He also said that Iran can enrich uranium further if the need arises. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Michael Rubin writes: A broader concern, however, is not only Iran’s provision of UAVs to proxy groups in Iraq and Lebanon but also its transfer of the capability to manufacture drones to them. This buys both Iran and its proxies plausible deniability as, when drones are utilized against US interests or those of US allies, there will be a question mark about who ordered their attack […]. Simply put, Iranian drones are here to stay. The threat they pose cannot be underestimated, and they will remain part of the operational environment across the Middle East for decades to come. – American Enterprise Institute

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The whole situation in eastern Syria continues to limp along as it has over the last two and half years, lacking clarity. Overall though the role of the US diplomats who have been intensely pro-Ankara, to the extent that Ankara’s interests seem to come before the US role in Syria, have left confusion, instability and lack of faith in Washington’s commitment. – Jerusalem Post

Michael Rubin writes: After all, Erdogan is a cynic, not a partisan. He reprised the Svengali-role he exerted on Obama after Trump took office, and he clearly seeks to buy his way into any future administration. Just as Trump and his advisers should be held to account for their relationship with Erdogan and his businessman-proxies, it is time Biden recognize his campaign is also very much under an assault by those seeking to promote Erdogan at the expense of democracy and law. – Washington Examiner

Areig Elhag writes: Therefore, Israel must actively seek friendship and a real relationship with all stakeholders in Sudan to guarantee that the Sudanese populace will not reject such a relationship in the future. Ignoring the civilian side of relations will not be in Israel’s future interests, especially as the Forces of Freedom and Change and the Assembly of Professionals, the primary incubator for Prime Minister Hamdok, have a large influence on the Sudanese populace. – Washington Institute

Bayly Winder writes: It is in America’s strategic interest for Oman to maintain its foreign policy independence. Oman does not host a U.S. military base or buy huge amounts of American weapons like some other GCC states, but it is a valuable regional player with an outsized impact. The sultanate has also been an important U.S. military partner of long standing, including hosting U.S. military facilities at Thumrait and Masirah Island and providing the U.S. Navy access to the ports of Duqm and Salalah. – Middle East Institute

Bruce Klingner writes: North Korea is concurrently suffering from severe economic calamities due to international sanctions, self-imposed trade restrictions to stave off the coronavirus, and devastating monsoon rains damaging the agricultural heartland[…]. There has long been debate over the degree to which humanitarian disaster response assistance should be distinguished from large-scale food aid and economic development programs. The U.S. and other nations should be willing to provide immediate aid to ameliorate natural disasters that impact the populace while concurrently refraining from large-scale assistance that benefits the regime’s prioritization of the military over the needs of its citizens. – Heritage Foundation

A new Middle Eastern order is falling into position
(Washington Examiner) When the United Arab Emirates and Israel signed their historic agreement to normalize relations, they were formalizing a shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics that has been in motion for years.

Recently, Hossein Salami, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), gave two speeches to commanders of the IRGC and its Qods Force, which is responsible for operations outside Iran. In the speeches, he explained the essence of the IRGC and of the Qods Force. In both, Salami, who is known for his flowery rhetoric, fulsomely praised the uniqueness of the IRGC, in an attempt to fill his men’s hearts with pride. – Middle East Media Research Institute ​
IRAN:
Revolutionary Guards Poised to Take Over Iran

By Ali Reza Eshraghi & Amir Hossein Mahdavi, Foreign Affairs: “A new saying is making the rounds in Iran: power is being sucked away from heads to toes, which is to say, from men who wear turbans to men who wear boots. Iran’s new parliament furnishes the most recent evidence."
Beware the Irregular Threat in the Littoral
By Walker D. Mills, CIMSEC: “The world is increasingly urban and littoral. This convergence between urbanization and the littoral, or littoralization, can lead to “the worst of both worlds” and may remake the littorals into hotspots of instability and conflict."
Why Did Erdoğan Convert Hagia Sophia Into a Mosque?  By Dr. Edy Cohen, August 27, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently converted Hagia Sophia from a museum into a mosque, a decision that apparently involved no consultation and was executed swiftly after a surprise announcement. What were Erdoğan’s true motivations in taking this provocative step?
Continue to full article ->
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ISRAEL:  NORMALIZED RELATIONS IN AN ARAB WORLD; ROUHANI IS FINISHED

8/19/2020

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​The Revolutionary Guards: The Anatomy of a State Terrorist Organization
By Dr. Reza Parchizadeh, August 26, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) was originally intended by the Islamist regime to be an ideologically oriented militia that would compensate for the regular Iranian army’s lack of revolutionary zeal. It has since replaced the regular army as Iran’s main military force and has spent decades working doggedly to export the regime’s Islamist brand of imperialism and conquest to the rest of the region and around the world. The IRGC is responsible, either directly or indirectly, for most of the worst terrorist outrages the world has ever seen. The US declared the Guards a state terrorist organization in 2019, but it needs to be completely dismantled.

Continue to full article ->
Lebanon may be broken beyond repair
​
Its debt is massive, its political class corrupt, and terrorists call the shots
State Department Calls Out Erdogan’s Hosting of Hamas Terrorists
​United States: Washington Imposes Sanctions on Six Members of Assad Government.  The State Department on Thursday announced the imposition of sanctions against six Syrian military, financial, and other governmental officials.  Those designated in sanctions include military commanders and a recruiter, Assad’s media advisor and her husband, and Yasser Ibrahim, whom the State Department described as having “cut corrupt deals that enrich Assad” while obstructing a political solution to the conflict.  The sanctions include economic regulations, including asset freezes and restrictions on business dealings.  Al Jazeera The New York Times State Department
Venezuela: Colombian President Claims Venezuela is trying to Buy Iranian Missiles.  Colombian President Ivan Duque on Thursday said that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is attempting to acquire medium and long-range missiles from Iran while also trying to provide weapons to armed irregular groups in Colombia.  Venezuela’s foreign minister denied the accusations, but Duque insisted that “information from international intelligence organisms” indicates that although Venezuela has not yet acquired the missiles, it is in talks to do so.  France 24 Reuters
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Netanyahu’s maneuvers leave Blue and White clueless on budget, elections
 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s constant machinations and tricks leave Blue and White in the dark as to whether he intends to push for new elections next week.
A U.S. Sale of F-35 Stealth Fighters to the UAE Could Be a Middle East Game Changer by Michael Peck
Forbes
August 20, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/61411/a-us-sale-of-f-35-stealth-fighters-to-the-uae
Arabs Are Fed Up With the 'Ungrateful' Palestinians  by Khaled Abu Toameh 
In the Wake of the Israel-UAE Deal, Whither the Arab and Muslim World?
The Israel-UAE Peace Agreement Opens the Door
Sudan, Israel in talks toward agreement 
The spokesperson of Sudan’s Foreign Ministry Haidar Badawi al-Sadiq said yesterday that his country is in contact with Israel to advance a peace agreement. Sadiq also hailed the agreement reached between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. A few hours later, Sudan’s acting Foreign Minister Omar Qamar al-Din Ismail, denied the statement, saying the government was “surprised” by the claim by his spokesman that Khartoum and Jerusalem were edging toward reconciliation. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the initial statement. Netanyahu quietly met with the head of Sudan’s transitional government, Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, in Uganda in February to discuss normalizing relations.
Read More  
timesofisrael.com
The Iranian Nuclear Program as a Catalyst for the Israel-UAE Peace Agreement
Don’t Let China Steal the Global Nuclear-Power Industry
Michael Shellenberger, Manhattan Institute
​

The Quiet Revolution In Emerging-Market Monetary Policy
Piroska Nagy-Mohacsi, Project Syndicate
World’s Money Transfer System Is China’s Achilles Heel
Mary Hui, Quartz
Don’t Fall for the ‘Degrowth’ Delusion
David Behrens, CapX
Mossad chief heads to the UAE days after normalization deal 
Israel’s intelligence chief Yossi Cohen arrived in the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, in the first such visit since the two countries announced they had reached a historic agreement to normalize relations last week. Cohen met with Emirati national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan. “The two sides discussed prospects for cooperation in the fields of security as well as exchanged points of view on regional developments and on issues of common interest,” the official Emirati official WAM news agency said. The US-brokered deal, in which Israel agreed to suspend its plan to annex parts of the Palestinian West Bank, was seen as a new move to bolster opposition against Iran’s regional influence.
Read More  
al-monitor.com
Lebanon’s government resigned after the Beirut port blast. Here’s what needs to happen now.
With friends like these…Key European allies side with Tehran, Moscow and Beijing
Ending United States Military Operations in Somalia by Paul D. Williams

Lessons from Conflicts Between Nuclear and Non-Nuclear States by Alexander Lanoszka
Diplomatic Breakthrough: Israel, United Arab Emirates Normalize Ties with Natan Sachs

The Pandemic and U.S. Defense Spending with Matt Vallone
James Fenimore Cooper and the American Republic
Iran File   is a biweekly analysis of the Iranian regime's strategic efforts domestically and abroad.
NEWLY EMPOWERED HARDLINERS MOVE AGAINST ROUHANI
Iran’s newly empowered hardliners will undermine President Hassan Rouhani for the remainder of his term and likely facilitate the election of a far-right president in 2021. Rouhani lost vital political support when former IRGC Air Force Commander Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf replaced Ali Larijani as parliament speaker in May. Hardliners are using their newfound legislative influence to promote aggressive and authoritarian policies, undermining Rouhani’s political promises.

Ghalibaf is also likely coordinating with hardliners outside Parliament to politically neutralize Rouhani. A hardliner will likely become president in 2021 as Rouhani is further discredited. Expanding hardliner control will facilitate increasingly aggressive and authoritarian Iranian behavior while exacerbating economic turmoil and domestic dissent.


Read the latest edition here.
Iran’s entrenchment of strategic infrastructure in Syria threatens balance of deterrence in the Middle East
Iran is realigning its force posture in Syria to retain and expand its deterrence, freedom of action, and leverage with the US, Israel, and Russia. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) began moving some of its forces in Syria away from the front lines in the spring of 2020 while expanding and consolidating its footprint in eastern Syria. This shift offers Tehran more secure bases more directly under its control to threaten Israel and the US as instability risks some of its positions in Iraq and Lebanon.
  Read the full article here.
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GREGORY COPLEY ON US FLASH-POINTS AROUND THE GLOBE

8/3/2020

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