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U.S. PLAYS WEAK HAND IN FOREIGN POLICY

8/8/2021

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CHINA'S LONG TERM STRATEGY
The Taliban and al-Qaeda: What Next?
Atlantic Charter credibility crumbles; can an Indo-Pacific Charter give hope?
Who Is Directing American Policy?  by Lawrence Kadish
The Taliban Has a Military Solution for Afghanistan
Iran Mullahs Closer Than Ever to Obtaining Nuclear Weapons  by Majid Rafizadeh  
It’s Time for Biden to Leave a Bad Deal in the Past
Richard Goldberg — National Review
When Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei selected Ebrahim Raisi to be the next president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Khamenei was sending Washington a message akin to Nikita Khrushchev’s infamous 1956 pronouncement: “We will bury you.” But don’t tell that to the unflappable advocates of appeasement in Washington who insist it is always the right time for rapprochement with Iran. Read more
Israel's Bennett, Due in Washington, Likely To Be Met With More Recalcitrance Than Ever on Iran
By CAROLINE GLICK, Special to the Sun | August 20, 2021
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/israels-bennett-due-in-washington-likely-to-be/91625/
Israel’s Bennett striving for new center-right electorate
 As new prime minister in a government composed of the right, center and left, Naftali Bennett strives to create for himself a new political base.
From Maximum Pressure to Maximum Deference
​
Biden’s appeasement of Iran has let the regime become more brazen
Pakistan’s Pyrrhic Victory in Afghanistan with Daniel Markey
Enabling the Fifth Column and the Relevancy of Unconventional Warfare
By Mark Grdovic, Small Wars Journal: “Although the concept of enabling resistance movements as a supporting effort to a broader military campaign is centuries old, the concept did not formally appear in U.S. military doctrine as Unconventional Warfare until 1955.” ​
How Iran is outplaying the CIA in Iraqi Kurdistan
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com
Turkey and the West: Drifting Further Apartby Burak Bekdil 
Israel's Approach to Iran: The Netanyahu Revolution
​
AFGHANISTAN
What Went Wrong in Afghanistan?
By Danielle Pletka, Stephen Walt, Eliot A. Cohen, Husain Haqqani, Richard Haass, Rina Amiri, Elliot Ackerman, Rory Stewart & Carter Malkasian, The Wall Street Journal: “As America’s longest war draws to an end, sharp disagreements remain about its aims, direction and success.” ​
Pakistan’s Pyrrhic Victory in Afghanistan
By Husain Haqqani, Foreign Affairs: “Islamabad will come to regret aiding the taliban’s resurgence.” 

Does the Belt and Road Have a Future in Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan?
By Sebastien Goulard, The Diplomat: “The Taliban will welcome the hard infrastructure elements of the BRI. The “soft” components are a different story."

A Strategy for Avoiding Two-Front War
By A. Wess Mitchell, The National Interest: “The greatest risk facing the twenty-first-century United States, short of an outright nuclear attack, is a two-front war involving its strongest military rivals, China and Russia. Such a conflict would entail a scale of national effort and risk unseen in generations, effectively pitting America against the resources of nearly half of the Eurasian landmass.” ​
Egypt pledges support to Somalia, eyeing Horn of Africa influence
 Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Roble held talks in Cairo with senior Egyptian officials at a time when Egypt is attempting to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa.
Syrian jihadis hail Taliban ‘conquest’ despite their own effort to rebrand
 The Taliban's rapid takeover of Afghanistan was widely welcomed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which offered sweets in the streets of Idlib.
Flawed assumptions led to tragic outcomes in Afghanistan
With the U.S. Withdrawing From Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran May Reconsider Its Nuclear Options
  • “No, Mr President. Al-Qaeda Is Not ‘Gone’ From Afghanistan.” Thomas Joscelyn, The Dispatch
  • “Back to the Drawing Board on Iran,” Behnam Ben Taleblu and Andrea Stricker, The Dispatch
  • “Biden's catastrophe,” Bradley Bowman, Washington Examiner
  • Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan C. Crocker: Why Biden’s lack of strategic patience led to disaster

  • JPost’s Seth J. Frantzman: Turkey sees Afghanistan as lever for global agenda
  • Emily Estelle, Mason Clark, Nicholas Carl, Kita Fitzpatrick, Matthew McInnis, Trey Sprouse, Virginia Wang, and Ezgi Yazici write: The Taliban’s swift seizure of Kabul has altered key regional states’ calculus toward Afghanistan. Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey are weighing how to take advantage of the United States’ hurried withdrawal while mitigating the new terrorist threats and refugee waves from Afghanistan that will likely follow. […]The Taliban’s victory also presents an opportunity for al Qaeda and other Salafi-jihadi groups to expand their havens in Afghanistan and intensify ongoing efforts to inspire terror attacks in the West capitalizing on the 20th anniversary of the September 11th attacks. – 

    ​
    Institute for The Study of War Hannah Grothusen writes: Overall, the United States’ vested interest in Taiwanese autonomy underscores the importance of a sound, sustainable plan for engagement with the island nation. Biden’s willingness to support Taiwan shows that the legacy of Trump’s policies has radically reshaped U.S. engagement. […]Going forward, Biden should carefully weigh the merits and risks of its engagement with Taiwan in order to create a sustainable balance that neither overcommits the United States nor ignores the potential benefits of a partnership. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

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