CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR - CounterStrikeMedia

Petraeus & Obama on the Origins of Islamic State

9/30/2016

Former CIA Director David Petraeus appears to disagree with GOP nominee Donald Trump's claim that President Obama is to blame for the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)....He said the "real cause" of ISIS was the alienation of the Sunni Arab community in Iraq under then-Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, which created an opportunity for the Sunni extremist group to win support in Sunni areas when the group stormed across Iraq in 2014. - The Hill

Christopher D. Kolenda: Defense One, "America's National Security Trilemma"

Former U.S. Afghanistan commander and retired Gen. David Petraeus said Monday that with the situation in Afghanistan deteriorating, the next U.S. president should end plans to withdraw all American troops and instead make an "enduring commitment" to keep U.S. forces there to help the Afghan military battle the Taliban and other extremist groups. – Washington Examiner

Iran: Terror Masters Residing At Core of Middle East Instability

9/30/2016

Moshe Ya'alon: Israel Defense Minister

Mark Dubowitz and Annie Fixler write: In January, the Obama administration reportedly signed a secret agreement with Iran to support the lifting of UN sanctions against Bank Sepah and its London branch in exchange for the release of U.S. hostages held in Iran. The ramifications of Washington’s latest concession to Tehran extend far beyond banking: It represents a unilateral dismantling of the international ballistic missile embargo against the Islamic Republic. – Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Lee Smith writes: The paradox is that the playbook was composed for figures like Obama. Statesmen like Churchill and Eisenhower would understand as a matter of experience and instinct what was required to secure interests, protect allies, and maintain national prestige. In liberating himself from the wisdom and guidance handed down by history, Obama has left himself with no option—except the White House's hollow protests against the barbarism now encircling Aleppo. – The Weekly Standard

Afghan 2 Year Accord Finished & Taliban Re-Surging Throughout Afghanistan

9/29/2016

Afghanistan’s national unity government, which will complete two troubled years in power Thursday, has set aside its internal differences and prepared an upbeat report of its achievements and goals to present to international donors in Brussels next week, hoping to secure their renewed commitment to long-term support. – Washington Post

Two years after assuming power, Afghanistan’s flailing, U.S.-brokered unity government is facing a growing challenge from the biggest grass-roots protest movement since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. – Los Angeles Times

At least 13 people were killed by an airstrike in the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar on Wednesday, with officials describing the victims as members of the Islamic State, while some residents claimed the dead were civilians. – New York Times

Afghan president Ashraf Ghani formalized a controversial accord with one of Afghanistan's most notorious warlords on Thursday, a deal the government hopes will lead to more peace agreements - Reuters

The Long War Journal

The Long War Journal

Afghan forces gain in Kunduz, Petraeus: US troops should stay

Egypt: Linchpin of U.S. Foreign Policy in Near East

9/29/2016

Ilan Berman writes: Egypt’s post-Islamist government is facing a remarkably similar situation. Beset by worsening economic conditions and rising discontent among the country’s youth, the Egyptian regime, now headed by Sisi, is decidedly on the skids—with potentially dire consequences for the country, and the region as a whole. – The National Interest

A senior assistant to Egypt's top prosecutor survived an assassination attempt when a car bomb exploded in an eastern suburb of Cairo as his motorcade was passing by on Thursday evening, an interior ministry statement said. - Reuters

Throughout President Obama’s time in the White House, Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Persian Gulf have watched with dismay as the kingdom’s decades-old alliance with the United States seemed to be slipping. – New York Times

Over the past two years, hundreds of political activists, journalists and students — anyone deemed a threat to the [Egyptian] government — have been picked up by the national security agency and “forcibly disappeared,” according to human rights groups. Now, a new app disguised as a common feature on cellphones — a calculator — is being used to protect the next victims and, perhaps, hold the government accountable. – Washington Post

Obama's Nuclear Deal Fuels Saudi - Iran Rivalry & Putin's Adventure in Aleppo

9/29/2016

Defense One: Why We Must Support Saudi's Against Iran

Foreign Policy Initiative - Total Intelligence

FPI Senior Policy Analyst Tzvi Kahn writes: America’s foremost regional priority should lie in the development of a regional coalition that can serve as a counterweight to Iranian expansionism and Sunni radicalism. Saudi-American cooperation remains essential to ensuring the success of such a policy. – Foreign Policy Initiative

Moshe Ya’alon writes: Should President Obama or his successor shift priorities and lead a campaign to pressure Iran to end its destabilizing policies — applying the same type of pressure that forced Iran to negotiate on its nuclear program — it will find willing partners among both Arabs and Israelis. – Los Angeles Times

There is an unspoken understanding within the administration that despite the many provocations Russia has carried out in Syria, there will be no major American response, a position that increasingly is drawing the ire of top national security officials, three U.S. officials told The Daily Beast. – The Daily Beast

Just a few weeks ago, Secretary of State John Kerry was giving constant updates about his bold new venture: to strike an agreement with Russia that would bring peace to Syria and finally set up peaceful, political negotiations to determine the fate of the war-torn country…. Here's how the deal was born so painstakingly, and how it died so quickly – Washington Examiner

Danielle Pletka writes: Your Mom told you that what goes around comes around. This is a perfect example where Congress, in refusing to appreciate the dangers of its own actions, is setting the American people up for a major “come around”. And we will be sorry. – AEI Ideas

Behnam Ben Taleblu writes: In short, Iran is attempting to enhance the quantity and quality of its proxy armies’ rockets and missiles. But the lawlessness of Yemen, along with the abundance of old Soviet and North Korean weapons, makes it easy for the Houthis to construct rockets like the Somoud. Thus, the Houthis’ ability to maintain the stalemate against the Saudi-led coalition may depend more on their own “steadfastness” than any munitions carrying that name. – Qualitative Military Edge

Obama's November Surprise

9/29/2016

The Middle East Forum

Council Foreign Relations - Pressure Points on Israeli Animus & Team Obama

Middle East Forum: Congresses Role & UN Declaration of Palestinian State

Cliff Smith writes: President Obama is rumored to be considering a major reversal of decades-long U.S. policy toward Israel by supporting a UN Security Council resolution that unilaterally recognizes a Palestinian state before a peace agreement is negotiated between Israel and the Palestinians. Congress must act to counter this bold and reckless move that endangers Israel’s security and America’s strategic interests. – The American Spectator

Middle East Forum: Pre-Oslo thinking, and why its wrong

Elliot Abrams, Council Foreign Relations, "Reading Jerusalem Post in Riyadh"

Analysis of Turkey's Policy in Syria & U.S. Approach To Mosul

9/28/2016

Obama faces Bush’s pitfall in Mosul battle

A Divided House, Why Re-Taking Mosul Remains Slow for the Iraqi Government

al-Monitor

Before Iraqi forces launch their highly anticipated offensive to retake the nation’s second-largest city, Mosul, back from the self-proclaimed Islamic State, they have one last battle ahead of them—reclaiming the Iraqi city of Hawijah from ISIS control, two defense officials told The Daily Beast. – The Daily Beast

The U.S. support mission for the battle of Mosul is not likely to require additional troops beyond the 600 just authorized by President Barack Obama, a military spokesman in Baghdad said Thursday. – Military.com

Islamic State terrorists have held the historic city of Mosul for nearly two and a half years, and they have dug networks of tunnels and filled moats with crude oil to lay waste to a city that has been called an open-air museum. – Washington Free Beacon

The fight against the Islamic State group is far from over in Iraq's Anbar province. The extremist group still controls the Euphrates River Valley west of Haditha up to the Syrian border. Almost every day the American-led coalition's airstrikes hit Islamic State targets in Ramadi, the provincial capital. And the ongoing fight is now prompting the U.S. military to boost capacity at western Iraq’s primary airfield, al Asad Air Base. – Military Times

French warplanes are flying over Iraq after the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier rejoined the U.S.-led fight against Islamic State extremists — and as the coalition prepares to try to take back the key city of Mosul. – Associated Press

Editorial: Though the absence of such political solutions facilitated the rise of the Islamic State, the Obama administration is not pushing for them. It is not using its considerable leverage — U.S. air support will be vital to liberating Mosul — to insist on better political preparations or the exclusion of Shiite militias. Instead, eager for the operation to begin before President Obama leaves office, it has been encouraging Mr. Abadi to speed up the Mosul offensive, while leaving the Day After problem to the Iraqis. That is a highly risky course. – Washington Post

News on the Indian-Pakistani Rivalry, New Delhi Surgical Strikes in Kashmir

9/28/2016

India Building Underground Bunkers in Kashmir - U.K. Telegraph

Video of Bunkers

October 05, 2016: Gatestone, Islamic Militancy & Kashmir

Washington Post: Review India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Long War Journal - Indian Surgical Strikes In Pakistani Kashmir

November’s meeting of South Asian countries in Islamabad is hanging in the balance after four countries, led by India, said they would boycott it following this month’s attack on an Indian army base in Kashmir, which killed 18 troops. – Financial Times

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif faces a key choice in the coming weeks about who should run Pakistan's powerful military, one that will have a major influence on the country's often strained relationships with the United States and nuclear rival India. - Reuters

Editorial: Mr. Modi is practicing restraint for now, but Islamabad can’t rely on that continuing. Mr. Modi’s offer of cooperation, if rejected, will become part of a case for making Pakistan even more of a pariah nation than it already is. If the military continues to send arms and fighters across the border, the Indian Prime Minister will have a strong justification to take action. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

India announced on Thursday that it had carried out early morning “surgical strikes” on Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, targeting bases and causing “significant casualties to terrorists” who it said were planning attacks on Indian territory. – New York Times

The elusive leader of a major rebel group fighting for independence in Pakistan's Baluchistan province said he would welcome cash and other help from India, words likely to alarm Islamabad which accuses New Delhi of stirring trouble there. - Reuters

One of Pakistan’s most vicious militant groups has dramatically stepped up its attacks over the past month, striking mosques, Christians and security forces in attacks that have killed more than 60 people in what appears to be a backlash to military operations against it. – Associated Press

Pakistan on Friday "completely rejected" India's claim to have sent troops across its disputed border in Kashmir to kill suspected militants, as India evacuated villages near the frontier amid concerns about a military escalation. - Reuters

Beyond Thursday's raid by Indian special forces into Pakistan's side of divided Kashmir, New Delhi is considering new economic and diplomatic measures to bring pressure to bear on its neighbor, Indian officials said. - Reuters

Editorial: Pakistan remains trapped by a national identity based on fomenting religious-based insurgencies in Kashmir. The country needs a new vision centered on improving the lives of its people, and there is no shortage of potentially willing hands, including Mr. Modi’s, to help it move in that direction. What’s needed is political courage in Islamabad, before the crisis in Kashmir escalates. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Harsh Pant writes: With Pakistan persisting this way, India is wise to emphasize the costs to Islamabad of its obstructionism. Pakistan cannot hold the future of the region hostage to its India paranoia. With India boycotting the next Saarc summit and other regional states following its lead, Pakistan’s chickens are coming home to roost. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

The Indian army said Thursday that its soldiers foiled an attack on an army camp and killed three suspected rebels in Indian-controlled Kashmir. – Associated Press

Pakistan’s powerful army chief has lashed out at India, warning the neighbor that any act of aggression from New Delhi will not go unpunished as tensions spike between the two countries over the divided region of Kashmir. – Associated Press

Shimon Perez Dies, Father of Israeli Nuclear Program, Precursor to Failed Oslo Pact, Nobel & Israeli Strategic Political Leader Dead

9/28/2016

Shimon Peres dies at 93, Elliott Abrams pays tribute

Shimon Peres, one of the last surviving pillars of Israel’s founding generation, who did more than anyone to build up his country’s formidable military might, then worked as hard to establish a lasting peace with Israel’s Arab neighbors, died on Wednesday in a Tel Aviv area hospital. He was 93. – New York Times

The death of Shimon Peres prompted an outpouring of emotional tributes from around the world even as Israel woke up Wednesday morning to discover that a figure integral to the history of the state was gone. – New York Times

Elliott Abrams writes: The last American founding father, James Madison, died in 1836, 60 years after independence had been declared. Today, in the 68th year of its independence, Israel experienced the loss of its own last founding father. Shimon Peres was the last statesman who had been a force in Israeli life from independence in 1948 through all of its wars and all of its peace treaties, and served as Israel’s president until 2014. – CFR’s Pressure Points

Yossi Beilin writes: Most politicians come to office simply in order to be there. When asked why, they say vague things about making their country better. But Peres was in politics for a reason: to ensure that his Israel was safe, both by creating the best means of deterrence and by promoting peaceful relations with our neighbors. – Washington Post

Jerusalem Post: Life in Pictures & Father of Israeli Nuclear Program

Obituary New York Sun

Washington Post

Washington Post Opinion

Washington Post Essay

Elliot Abrams: Council Foreign Relations

Why Oslo Failed

Bret Stephens "Shimon Peres: Israel's Last Founding Father"

Shimon Peres Israel's Last Founding Father.pdf
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Commentary on Peres Death
World leaders made plans to converge on Israel to pay tribute to Shimon Peres, the Nobel Prize-winning former prime minister who died on Wednesday, focusing renewed attention on his quest for peace in a fractured land that fell well short of his dreams. – New York Times

The world awoke on Wednesday to an actuality it had never known before: a modern state of Israel without Shimon Peres. But in many respects Mr. Peres’s Israel began to disappear long ago. – New York Times

While Western leaders mourned the death of Israeli statesman and Nobel laureate Shimon Peres, many in the Arab world reacted with scorn, viewing him as a key architect of destructive Israeli policies toward Palestinians. – Washington Post

They were an international odd couple with seemingly little in common, a 40-something African-American born in Hawaii and an octogenarian Zionist born in a shtetl in Poland. But somehow Barack Obama and Shimon Peres hit it off. – New York Times

A group of Republican senators introduced legislation Wednesday that would require the State Department to certify the Palestinian Authority has ended its policy of paying families of terrorists. – Washington Examiner

Thousands of Israelis filed past the flag-draped coffin of Shimon Peres outside parliament on Thursday, honoring the former president and prime minister who won worldwide praise for his efforts in peace talks with the Palestinians. - Reuters

Interview: FPI Board Member Dan Senor paid tribute to Shimon Peres on Opinion Journal – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: With the passing of Shimon Peres, who died Wednesday at age 93, Israel suffers the loss of a lion, the last of the founding generation of leaders…Through a career that spanned this tumultuous period — through years of siege, bloodshed and building a nation — Mr. Peres never abandoned hope that, with enough sweat and tears, Israel would live in peace. – Washington Post

Bret Stephens writes: His biggest dream was peace with Israel’s Arab neighbors. The end of the Cold War gave Peres what he thought was a historic opening with Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization, which had lost its Soviet patron. But while Peres was eager to go from hawk to dove, Arafat could not rise from terrorist to statesman. The 1993 Oslo Accords for which the two men shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Rabin collapsed in a wave of suicide bombings at the turn of the millennium. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Foreign Policy Magazine: Obituary

Council Foreign Relations: Elliot Abrams on Prince Charles Antisemitism & Shimon Funeral

U.S. Funding Iranian Expansion, Global Terror & Syria

9/28/2016

Hof, Lister, and Cooper, Stein + Taylor on next steps in Syria
Hawijah will be the next battle against ISIS in Iraq

Dubowitz, Fixler: US is helping Iran fund chaos in the Mideast

The Obama administration wired almost one million dollars to an Iranian bank account in Europe last July, months before making a separate $1.7 billion payment to Iran that officials say had to be made in cash. The administration also withheld some details of the wire payment from Congress and misstated other details to journalists – The Weekly Standard

Mark Dubowitz and Annie Fixler writes: The White House refuses to acknowledge the obvious: The nuclear deal has already led the United States to fund terrorists, sectarian warfare, and chaos in the Middle East. – Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government

Syria rebels draw closer to al Qaeda-linked group
Senate Democrats losing patience with Obama’s Syria policy

Secretary of State John Kerry is not "being played" by Russian negotiators, his spokesman insisted in response to concerns that Syrian dictator Bashar Assad used a so-called "ceasefire" to prepare for a major offensive against U.S.-backed rebels and civilians. State Department insists "nobody's being played" by Russia – Washington Examiner

One year in, however, the unanswered question is how long Russia will be bogged down in Syria — and whether it will achieve, at best, a hollow victory. – Los Angeles Times

A year after Russia waded into the war in Syria, aiming to flex its national security muscles and prop up beleaguered Syrian President Bashar Assad, Moscow appears no closer to one of its military goals: getting the U.S. to coordinate combat operations in the civil war. And prospects of a diplomatic resolution seem dim. – Associated Press

Russia has reinforced its air base in Syria with several bombers and is ready to send ground attack aircraft as it intensifies support for Syrian government troops after the collapse of a ceasefire plan, Russia's Izvestia daily reported on Friday. - Reuters

Relying on a Kurdish militia in a U.S.-backed offensive to take the Syrian city of Raqqa from Islamic State could trigger prolonged ethnic conflict and Arab fighters should instead form the core of the operation, a senior Turkish official said. - Reuters

Eli Lake writes: There was a time when you could count on hard-core Sunni Islamists in the Middle East to be reliably opposed to the existence of the Jewish state. Organizations ranging from the Muslim Brotherhood to al-Qaeda disagreed on everything from jurisprudence to short-term strategy, but when it came to Israel there was consensus. The slaughter in Syria is changing that. – Bloomberg View

Editorial: President Obama bears ultimate responsibility for doing so little to stop the five-year Guernica that is Syria, and we don’t know what Ms. Power’s private policy advice has been. But in public she has become an echo of the officials she once denounced for justifying American inaction in the face of mass slaughter. The honorable decision would be to resign. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Frederic Hof writes: Protecting civilians, beating the Islamic State and organizing decent governance for eastern Syria should be the pillars of a strategy to stabilize Syria, to set the stage for real peace talks and to stop the hemorrhaging of terrified humanity from a country ravaged mercilessly by two sides of the same terrorist coin: the Islamic State and Assad. – Washington Post

Scott Cooper, Aaron Stein, and Andrea Taylor write: [I]f the President were to conduct such an assessment as mandated by the Caesar bill, or if the incoming Administration were to see such an assessment as due diligence in evaluating policy options in response to an issue displacing millions, destabilizing continents, and fueling terrorist propaganda—he or she would see that the United States has recent experience with no-fly zones, and the greatest challenges come not during the tactical execution but while building a coalition for sustained flight operations. – The American Interest

Charles Lister writes: We are already five years too late and our chances of success diminish every week, but the killing machine in Syria must be stopped. The price for doing so today will almost certainly fade in comparison to what we may face five more years from now. Contrary to Obama administration loyalists, there are other options available to us today – it is up to us whether we choose to acknowledge them or not. – War on the Rocks

Special Operations Command & Sunni Intel for "The Long War"

9/27/2016

U.S. Special Operations Command has privately pressed the staff of the nation’s highest-ranking military officer to include in his upcoming National Military Strategy a discussion of the Sunni Muslim ideology underpinning the brutality of the Islamic State group and al Qaeda. – Washington Times

Mary Habeck and Charles Stimson write: The U.S. faces an increasingly complex national security environment, one dominated by violent nonstate Islamic extremists and anti-status quo states. It’s a situation that requires the IC to become an analytically diverse, yet organizationally united, enterprise that can constantly learn and adapt. – Washington Times

Kurds Remain Best Mesopotamian Proxy Against Iran

9/27/2016

Paul Bucala and Shayan Enferadi write: Kurdish militants have escalated attacks against Iranian security forces in the past six months. Clashes along Iran’s western borders have occurred almost weekly from May through early September. The current level of violence will not endanger Tehran’s control of Iran’s western provinces. It will, however, drive Tehran to intensify its efforts in managing the politics of Iraqi Kurds and Baghdad in order to prevent any further spillover of Kurdish separatism into Iran. An escalation of the conflict would also divert military resources that Iran might otherwise have deployed to Syria and elsewhere. – AEI’s Iran Tracker

U.S. Airstrike Hits W.M.D. In Iraq/Syria: Tony Blair Call Your Office & Aleppo Suffers

9/27/2016

The Long War Journal

Unrelenting assault on Aleppo is called worst yet in Syrian war
WaPo editorial and Fred Hof on Assad’s assault on Aleppo
Secretary Kerry defends US policy on Syria

Syria

The Syrian regime and its allies pushed ahead with their bombardment of the rebel-held side of Aleppo on Monday despite global condemnation over the newly launched offensive that has killed hundreds in the past several days. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Unfazed by Western accusations of war crimes and barbarity in the ferocious aerial assault on Aleppo, the Syrian government and its Russian ally intensively bombed the northern Syrian metropolis for the fourth consecutive day on Monday. Residents and rescuers there described the bombardment as among the worst yet in the five-year war. – New York Times

Secretary of State John Kerry on Monday faulted the Russian government for continued violence in Syria and for the accompanying collapse of a diplomatic process aimed at eventually solving the more than five-year-long civil war. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Faced with calls to take stronger steps against Russia’s involvement in Syria’s civil war, the White House said Monday that President Obama won’t apologize for pursuing peace. – Washington Times

Two leading senators on defense slammed the Obama administration for its lack of leadership in Syria after a weekend of extreme violence that saw any hope of a cease-fire crumble. – Washington Examiner

Secretary of State John Kerry pushed back Monday on Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain’s description of him as “intrepid but delusional” for negotiating with Russia over Syria. – The Hill

Two days prior to devastating aerial attacks, Michael Ratney, the U.S. special envoy to Syria, was told the Assad regime was planning to hit the Aleppo facilities of the Syrian Civil Defense, a volunteer rescue group. – The Daily Beast

[T]he aircraft helping prop up Assad’s forces pale in comparison to the wave of destruction being unleashed across rebel-held eastern Aleppo. Russian aircraft are hitting civilian neighborhoods with incendiary bombs, cluster munitions, and what is thought to be the 1,000-lb. BETAB-500 “bunker buster” bomb. – Foreign Policy

The collapse of the latest Syria ceasefire has heightened the possibility that Gulf states might arm Syrian rebels with shoulder-fired missiles to defend themselves against Syrian and Russian warplanes, U.S. officials said on Monday. - Reuters

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem said in a TV interview broadcast Monday that an internationally-brokered cease-fire for Syria is still viable, as rescue workers in Aleppo cleaned up from what they said were the worst airstrikes on rebel-held areas of the northern city in five years. – Associated Press

Editorial: The losers are the civilians trapped in eastern Aleppo — 250,000 to 275,000 human beings — who are cut off from supplies of food and medicine and being bombed mercilessly. They are being offered the same choice the regime has successfully imposed on other towns across the country: surrender or starve. Those who try to approach the evacuation corridors Russia says have been established are shot at. They are, indeed, victims of barbarism — but the rhetoric of U.S. diplomats, and continued petitioning to Mr. Putin, won’t help them much. – Washington Post

Fred Hof writes: President Obama should avoid misleading Mr. Putin. He should also spare his subordinates the misery, humiliation, and frustration of trying to find truth, honor, and decency in the words of Mr. Putin's employees. He should find civilian slaughter in Syria unacceptable, and demand of his defense secretary options for exacting a price of a murderous, cowardly regime currently convinced it can do with absolute impunity as it pleases to children and their parents, where and when it wants. – Atlantic Council

Richard Cohen writes: Aleppo then is like Guernica, a place of carnage. It’s also a symbol of American weakness. The same Putin who mucks around in Syria has filched U.S. emails and barged into the U.S. election. He has kept Crimea and a hunk of Ukraine and may decide tomorrow that the Baltics, once Soviet, need liberating from liberation. He long ago sized up Obama: all brain, no muscle. – Washington Post

The two largest hospitals in the Syrian city of Aleppo were bombed early Wednesday, knocking them out of service and worsening an already dire medical crisis in the besieged city, medical workers said. – Washington Post

The U.S. must consider a no-fly zone and other aggressive actions to prevent an imminent bloodbath in the besieged rebel-held city of Aleppo by Russian and Syrian government forces, the head of civil defense forces known as the “White Helmets” warned on a Washington visit Tuesday. – Washington Times

Among the roughly 250,000 people trapped in the insurgent redoubt of the divided northern Syrian city are 100,000 children, the most vulnerable victims of intensified bombings by Syrian forces and their Russian allies. – New York Times

The incident underscores the difficulties that military commanders face as they conduct an air campaign in a nation where they have little ground presence and where an array of armed factions clash across constantly changing battle lines. – Washington Post

Russian airstrikes helped scupper the cease-fire in Syria. Now, Russian foot-dragging threatens to derail another diplomatic effort by the United States and its allies: sanctioning Damascus for using chemical weapons against its own people. – Foreign Policy

Any hope of reviving a US- and Russian-backed ceasefire agreement in Syria may have been dashed by the air and ground offensives unleashed by the Syrian regime on the rebel-held parts of the western city of Aleppo. – Atlantic Council

In the wake of the failed Syrian cease-fire and the absence of a "Plan B" from the Obama administration, experts say it's time for the U.S. to impose tough new sanctions on both Syria and Russia to finally stop the bloodshed and deepening humanitarian crisis in the war-torn country. – Washington Examiner

As Syrian and Russian forces laid waste to the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Tuesday, nearly 60 House Democrats sent a letter to President Barack Obama calling on him to "persevere in this diplomatic path." - Politico

As Syria’s brief ceasefire collapsed in the wake of the aerial bombardment of Aleppo, Russia has over the past week expanded its military support to the Syrian regime, western officials say. – Financial Times

Foreign states have given Syrian rebels surface-to-surface Grad rockets of a type not previously supplied to them in response to a major Russian-backed offensive in Aleppo, a rebel commander told Reuters on Wednesday. - Reuters

With international diplomacy in tatters and the U.S. focused on its election, the Syrian government and its Russian allies are seizing the moment to wage an all-out campaign to recapture Aleppo, unleashing the most destructive bombing of the past five years and pushing into the center of the Old City. – Associated Press

How Obama Should Spend The Rest Of His Presidency
Ramzi Mardini writes: Mr. Obama should devote his remaining time in office to pressure the Abadi government to build a single military force that is tailored to liberate the rest of Nineveh. That would be an army that reflected the province’s demographics and tribes and had effectively integrated its constituent militia groups under a unified national command. – New York Times

U.S. Commitment In South West Asia

9/26/2016

US-backed effort to fight Afghan corruption a near-total failure

India is being offered blueprints to advanced combat aircraft by the world’s aerospace companies, a move unthinkable even a decade ago, as New Delhi gets ready to place another multibillion-dollar air force order. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Ms. Karimova was once described in leaked U.S. diplomatic cables as a possible successor to her father. But her absence from the state funeral opened a window into the fortunes of the Karimov family—and the country’s new direction since his death. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Three Pakistani Taliban leaders have reportedly been killed in joint Afghan and NATO air strikes in eastern Afghanistan, Pakistani security sources say. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Rebeka Foley writes: These changes may have been in the works long before Karimov died. An ongoing economic downturn in the region has motivated many governments to clamp down on dissent and tighten their grip on the political system. Nevertheless, the developments warrant close observation, and serve as a reminder that authoritarian regimes are inherently brittle, as they actively suppress the institutions that make democracies flexible and resilient. – Freedom House’s Freedom at Issue

Haqqani Network Targeted - The Long War Journal

South Asia

The top Pakistani official in the volatile dispute over Kashmir warned in an interview that India is dangerously escalating a war of words over the divided territory between the two nuclear-armed powers, vehemently denying that Islamabad was behind a recent attack that killed 18 soldiers at an Indian military base there. – Washington Times

U.S. and Indian troops are wrapping up counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism training this month in Uttarakhand, an Indian state that borders Chinese-occupied Tibet. – Stars and Stripes

Pakistan is not putting adequate pressure on militants within its borders that are threatening stability in neighboring Afghanistan, according to the top U.S. military commander in Afghanistan. – The Hill

Pakistan continues to believe terrorist attacks will allow it to obtain territory it covets in Jammu and Kashmir, India’s foreign minister said Monday. – Associated Press

Pakistan's lower house of parliament has passed a landmark bill giving its small Hindu minority the right to register marriages, the last major hurdle on the way to enacting a law aimed at protecting women's rights. - Reuters

Russian War Aims & Islam

9/23/2016

Leon Aron writes: That Russian should be the lingua franca of jihadists from the former Soviet territory is surprising. Many, perhaps most, younger Kyrgyz, Tajiks, and Uzbeks (judging by the gastarbeiters from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan) do not know Russian well or even at all. That Russia is becoming widely-spoken is indicative of the explosive internationalization and the vastly expanded recruitment patterns of what might be called the Russian Jihad based in Russia and former Soviet Central Asia. – War on the Rocks

Political conflicts in the Middle East between the Saudi-led camp of Sunni powers and a rival Shiite camp led by Iran have already morphed into a religious war. Now, a theological dispute within Sunni Islam is causing another regional political rift—a result of an initially obscure conference in Russia’s Chechen Republic. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Simplifying U.S. War Aims in Near East

Christopher D. Kolenda: Council on Foreign Relations & Afghanistan

9/23/2016

Interview: Afghanistan, Kolenda & Council Foreign Relations

David Ignatius writes: For Rouhani and Sissi both, foreign policy begins with the imperative of domestic security. Iran had its revolution 37 years ago; Egypt’s is just five years past. Neither country will grow and prosper without more freedom to empower its citizens. That’s why American pressure on human rights, no matter how much it annoys these two leaders, is ultimately in their countries’ interest. – Washington Post

Defense One: Nat. Sec. Trilemma

Dunford: US-backed forces control 70% of Afghanistan

The Afghan government signed a draft peace deal on Thursday with a small insurgent faction led by a warlord who has been designated a “global terrorist” by the United States. – New York Times

Army Gen. John Nicholson, commander of American and NATO troops in Afghanistan, expressed concern Friday over the high rate of casualties suffered by Afghan forces fighting the Taliban, describing it as a “critical” factor in the conflict. – Washington Free Beacon

The Taliban have control over 10 percent of Afghanistan's population and the insurgent group is battling with the Afghan government for control of at least another 20 percent, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan said Friday. He described a tough fight that is coming at the cost of many Afghan casualties. – Associated Press

The Caliphate: al-Baghdadi's Replacement

9/21/2016

al-Monitor

The Saudi's Strike BAck: Reform & Regional offense

9/21/2016

Saudi Options To Counter American 9/11 Lawsuit

al-Monitor

Yemen: Graveyard of Obama Doctrine

[A] sharp drop in the price of oil, Saudi Arabia’s main revenue source, has forced the government to withdraw some benefits this year—raising the cost of living in the kingdom and hurting its middle class, a part of society long insulated from such problems. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Saudis sent telegrams to the king on Sunday pressing the monarchy to end male guardianship rules for women, the culmination of an unprecedented monthslong effort to abolish the system. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

OPEC members and Russia have substantial issues to work out before making a deal to limit oil production, but still expect to make progress toward a comprehensive deal, energy ministers said. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Lawmakers in both parties are growing more skeptical of the U.S. alliance with Saudi Arabia. – The Hill

Saudi Arabia on Monday announced sudden, drastic cuts to salaries and perks for government employees as part of the kingdom’s struggle to slash spending at a time of low oil prices. – New York Times

How U.S. Service Chiefs View Near EAst, "The Long War" & How the Middle East Battles for the Heart, Soul of U.S. Presidency

9/21/2016

Hoover Institution: The Caravan

Changing U.S. National Security Priorities

The Rapidly Changing Strategic Landscape of the Near East
Admiral Roughead Articles, Hoover
David Deptula Articles, Hoover
Ehud Eiran Articles, Hoover

NY SUN: Near East Battles for Heart, Soul U.S. Presidency

Missiles & More, The Middle East - Strategika, Hoover Institution

Elliott Abrams writes: A speech such as Mr. Abbas gave shows us why it has not been possible to make more progress toward peace between Israel and the Palestinians. As long as Palestinian leaders are inciting violence with fantasies about the Temple Mount and are mired in their inaccurate history of past victimization, from the Balfour Declaration to today, it is hard to see how progress is possible. – CFR’s Pressure Points

Syria, Russia & Gas Attack

9/21/2016

Mustard Gas Attack: Government Executive.com

Genevieve Casagrande writes: The U.S. cannot accept a partnership with Russia in Syria so long as it continues to function as a belligerent actor in the conflict. Russia will continue to pursue its vital interests in Syria to include the preservation of the Assad regime and will continue to prioritize the defeat of the Syrian opposition, which remains the Syrian regime’s primary adversary. Russia and the regime will therefore pursue a strategy to remove mainstream opposition forces from the battlefield either through their submission, destruction, or the transformation of these groups into radical elements that can be rightfully targeted as terrorists. – Institute for the Study of War

US accuses Russia of “barbarism,” war crimes in Syria
Syria, Russia seem ready to further scorch the earth

Washington Post: Obama, Syria at the UN.

The U.S. Commitment & War Aims in South West Asia

9/20/2016

The United States will soon mark 15 full years of war in Afghanistan, but you wouldn’t know it from the political discourse. Democrats and Republicans seem to have something of a rare, if unspoken, truce on the subject. Even amid deepening partisan polarization, with the most frivolous issues seized for political gain, no one seems eager to discuss a war that is still costing American lives and hundreds of billions of dollars. – New York Times

More than two years into his tenure, Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to have broad support in India, despite criticism over stalled economic reforms and religious and caste tensions in the country, according to a new report by the Pew Research Center. – New York Times

It adds up to a messy backdrop for Pakistan’s prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, who planned to use the annual U.N. gathering to raise issues over Kashmir, where both nations have faced off for decades and which remains a major point of friction between the regional powers. – Washington Post

Prosecutors in Tajikistan have called for lengthy prison sentences for two human rights lawyers in the Central Asian country, the latest in the series of government moves that have drawn international condemnation. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

India’s prime minister came under increasing pressure Monday from within his own party, as many in the country demanded a strong response to a deadly weekend attack that the government blames on Pakistan-based militants. – Associated Press

Just over two years later, Modi faces his first big foreign policy test: how to respond to the devastating terrorist attack on an Indian army base Sunday that left 18 soldiers dead in the disputed Kashmir region. – Washington Post

The Indian army on Tuesday killed at least 10 suspected militants trying to cross its border with Pakistan, in another incident expected to ratchet up tension between the nuclear-armed rivals two days after a deadly attack on an Indian military base in the same region. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

The Afghan government will investigate a series of U.S. airstrikes that apparently killed eight people over the weekend, the Interior Ministry said Tuesday. – Stars and Stripes

Jordan & The Muslim Brotherhood

9/20/2016

The Brotherhood has rebranded itself after years of pressure from the Jordanian government that pushed it to the brink of dissolution…. Now, the Brotherhood is set to make historic gains in Jordan’s parliamentary elections on Tuesday. – Washington Post

In retreat elsewhere in the Middle East, the Muslim Brotherhood hopes to stage a comeback of sorts here in the relatively moderate kingdom of Jordan by calibrating its message. Eschewing the more radical language of Islamists in other parts of the region, the Brotherhood has emphasized bread-and-butter concerns and included women and Christians on the candidate lists it presented to voters on Tuesday. – New York Times

Jordan's moderate Islamist opposition could emerge from Tuesday's parliamentary election with renewed influence after surviving government attempts to ban it as part of a wider crackdown on political Islam, analysts said. - Reuters

The Cipher Brief

Jordan is pressing Israel for trade and financial concessions before it signs off on a groundbreaking but politically sensitive multibillion-dollar agreement to buy gas from the offshore Leviathan field, a Jordanian government minister said. – Financial Times

Mark Green writes: The U.S. and other democracies should stand ready to support Jordan as it continues its journey on the path of democracy. There is much work to be done, and many challenges to be faced — but for now, it's worth taking a moment to congratulate the Jordanian people on doing their part to build a better future for their country. – The Hill

Kashmir: Indian-Pakistani War Aims, New Delhi Ready For Permanent Offensive.

9/19/2016

Defense One: New Delhi Ready for Permanent Offensive Against Pakistan

The Cipher Brief

In one of the deadliest attacks in the disputed region of Kashmir, heavily armed militants stormed an Indian Army base near the border with Pakistan early Sunday, killing 17 soldiers. – New York Times

India stepped up patrols along its de facto border with Pakistan on Monday after gunmen killed 17 soldiers at a nearby army base, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration weighed its response to an attack India blames on its neighbour. - Reuters

New Delhi Hit Again

Pakistani officials have strongly denied the charges, and its military leaders have declared that they are prepared to defend Pakistani territory from any attack by India, and also to launch a “counter-offensive” in case of an Indian strike. – Washington Post

Archeologist Discovers Scales of Jewish High Temple Priest In Jerusalem

9/19/2016

Archeology

The Tower

Pakistan, Proliferation, Black Nuclear Sites & How A Petrol Corridor Feeds Institutionalized Opacity in Islamabad's Civil-Military Relations

9/16/2016

Express Tribune Pakistan

IHS Jane's 360 Satellite Photo Black Nuclear Site

pakistan_civil-mil_economic_corridor.pdf
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At least 29 people were killed in the bombing of a mosque in the western Pakistani tribal region of Mohmand on Friday, officials said. – New York Times

In one of the deadliest attacks in the disputed region of Kashmir, heavily armed militants stormed an Indian Army base near the border with Pakistan early Sunday, killing 17 soldiers. – New York Times

India stepped up patrols along its de facto border with Pakistan on Monday after gunmen killed 17 soldiers at a nearby army base, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration weighed its response to an attack India blames on its neighbour. - Reuters

Two gunmen on a motorcycle killed three soldiers Sunday near the northwestern city of Peshawar, police said. – Associated Press

HOW ISRAEL WINS: DANIEL PIPES
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FRAGILITY & FAILURE
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RETHINKING EGYPT'S ECONOMY
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EGYPT: CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS, ECONOMY
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AFRICA'S POST COLONIAL ERA ENDING
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AFRICAN ARAB SPRING

AFRICAN ARAB SPRING
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ISHMAEL IS NOT FATHER OF ARABS

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DEFEATING SECTARIANISM IN MIDDLE EAST

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SECULARISM, NATIONALISM, ISLAMISM: MAKING MODERN MIDDLE EAST
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CHANGING DYNAMICS OF SALAFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS

FOREIGN AFFAIRS - THE ARAB SPRING @ 5
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BIN SALMAN & THE REFORM OF SAUDI ARABIA
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NATIONAL INTEREST, ARAB SPRING
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FOLLOWING VISION 2030

HOOVER; ISLAMISM

MEF RADIO LIVE

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THE PAKISTAN READER

ARAB SPRING & POLITICAL REFORM
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ISRAELI NEWS NETWORK

THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM

250 YEARS OF AMERICAN IRREGULAR WAR

AEI - CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT: SALIFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS GROWING

ABBAS MILANI HOOVER PAGE: IRAN & U.S. RELATIONS

HOOVER INSTITUTION BLOG ON THE NEAR EAST

JEWISH INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY OF AMERICA

FATA PAKISTAN RESEARCH CENTER

ISRAELI NUCLEAR POSTURE & DOCTRINES

CONTAIN, DEGRADE, DEFEAT: PLAN FOR MIDDLE EAST

THE PLAN TO DEFEAT THE ISLAMIC STATE & al-QAEDA

CENTER FOR SECURITY, REGIONAL STUDIES, KABUL

AfPak POLICY OPTIONS

ISLAMISM & INTERNATIONAL ORDER

HOOVER INSTITUTION PUBLICATION ON U.S. NEAR EAST POLICY

Israeli Security & Gulf States

PRINCIPALS GUIDING US POLICY IN MIDDLE EAST

HOW ISRAEL WINS

FREE BOOKS ON MIDDLE EAST

AEI: GLOBAL JIHADI THREAT & BEYOND

HOOVER: OPERATIONAL GUIDE FOR THE LONG WAR

THE ETTINGER REPORT: U.S. ISRAELI RELATIONS

GOOGLE NEWS PAKISTAN

HOW TO WIN WORLD WAR IV

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE LONG WAR

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