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GLOBAL strike MEDIA
u.s. central command
centcom & The long war

PAKISTAN:  AT THE CROSS ROADS, COUNCIL FOREIGN RELATIONS ESSAY

9/28/2018

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https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/10/badness-personified.php
CFR
Badness Personified
Thomas Joscelyn — The Weekly Standard

On September 4, the Taliban announced that Jalaluddin Haqqani had “passed away after a long battle with illness.” A notorious jihadist who was one of Osama bin Laden’s earliest and closest allies, Haqqani had long been a recluse, with rumors swirling that he left the land of the living some years ago. But if the Taliban is telling the truth, then Haqqani died only recently. The terrorist organization he built lives on, however, and it has more influence today than ever. And a brief look at Haqqani’s career helps to explain how al Qaeda survived America’s relentless post-9/11 counterterrorism campaign... Read more

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IRAN USURPS IRAQ & EVALUATING IRAN'S ENEMIES

9/28/2018

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What’s next in Iraqi politics?
Michael Rubin | AEIdeas 
After months of delays, Iraq is finally moving forward with the formation of its new government. On September 15, the new Iraqi parliament selected Mohammed al-Halbousi to be speaker. While some Western analysts dismissed him as an Iranian choice, they miss the broader point that Iraqi party lists are increasingly religiously diverse
FDD
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RUSSIA REMAINS POWER BROKER:  SYRIA & HOW TO COUNTER IRANIAN PROXIES IN IRAQ

9/25/2018

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MEF
With eyes on Iran, Bolton warns against Russia-Syria missile deal
COUNTERING IRANIAN PROXIES IN IRAQ
White House & Pentagon Warn Russia, Iran on Syria
Giving air-defense system to Syria threatens broader war
BY STEPHEN BRYEN AND SHOSHANA BRYEN
Russian defense minister's response to losing a surveillance plane to Syrian fire last week could spark a dangerous flare-up
James Jeffrey, the State Department’s special representative to Syria, insists that does not necessarily mean keeping U.S. military “boots on the ground.” Arab allies and local proxy forces backed by U.S. air power could replace the roughly 2,000 American troops deployed there as the administration begins a new push for the “removal of all Iranian-commanded forces from the entirety of Syria,” Jeffrey said late last week. - Washington Examiner
Three years in Syria, Russia sums up achievements and challenges
On the third anniversary of the Russian campaign in Syria, Foreign Minister Lavrov summed up Moscow's achievements but conceded challenges persist.
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CPEC NEEDS A REVIEW & SAUDI ARABIA IS LOSING ITS STABILITY

9/24/2018

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FDD:  WHAT'S AFTER THE FAILED ARAMCO DEAL?
Uncertainty over possible Saudi investment in CPEC
BY F.M. SHAKIL
Beijing and Riyadh are yet to clarify whether Saudi Arabia will be involved in the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor scheme, despite statements claiming that by new ministers in Islamabad
Saudi Arabia is at its least stable in 50 years
To maintain its stability, Saudi Arabia needs to end the costly war in Yemen, where much of the population is subject to famine and disease.
Change of mindset needed for better understanding of CPEC
The US Is Prolonging an Unwinnable War in Yemen
 
// Mohamad Bazzi
The Trump administration is allowing its policy to be dictated by Saudi Arabia's rivalry with Iran. 
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SHARIF RELEASED OUT OF JAIL & PAKISTAN STILL HARBORS HAQQANI NETWORK

9/23/2018

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Badness personified

Jalaluddin Haqqani is dead. The terror network he created lives on.
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Pakistan’s security dilemma and the Pashtun belt
A Pakistani court suspended the corruption conviction of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and ordered he be freed from jail, reinvigorating his party’s claims that the case was aimed at hindering its prospects in July’s national election. - Wall Street Journal
Pakistan continues to harbor Taliban, including al Qaeda-linked Haqqanis
(Long War Journal) Pakistan continues to allow the Taliban, including the al Qaeda-linked Haqqani Network, to operate on its soil, despite pressure from the US government. That is one of the conclusions drawn in the State Department’s newly released Country Reports on Terrorism 2017.
  State Department: Iran allows al Qaeda to operate its ‘core facilitation pipeline’
(Long War Journal) The State Department released its annual Country Reports on Terrorism today. The report covers events during the previous calendar year. As in past assessments, State says that Iran “has allowed” al Qaeda to operate its key facilitation network on Iranian soil. 
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NETANYAHU'S DOCTRINE FOR THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST & A LOOK AT IRANIAN FOREIGN POLICY AIMS

9/21/2018

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HAARETZ
BEN-GURION & ISRAELI SITUATION TODAY
Iran’s national security policy is the product of many overlapping and sometimes competing factors such as the ideology of Iran’s Islamic revolution; perception of threats to the regime and to the country; long-standing Iranian national interests; and the interaction of the Iranian regime’s factions and constituencies. - USNI News
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CHARM OFFENSIVE:  PAKISTAN INVITES RIYADH FOR THE OBOR PROJECT & SHARIF OUT OF JAIL

9/21/2018

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Pakistan invites Saudi Arabia to join China-led project
Suspension of Sharif’s, Maryam’s jail terms has changed political dynamics
Pakistani army chief’s diplomatic mission in China
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TRUMP'S FOREIGN POLICY SUCCESS & GETTING "WOKE" ON THE GREAT DANGER

9/20/2018

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Chaos or not, Trump has a record of foreign policy success
Marc A. Thiessen | The Washington Post 
When President Trump was elected in 2016, many worried that he would usher in a new age of American isolationism and withdrawal. Instead, Trump has pursued a foreign policy that is not isolationist and also a significant improvement over his predecessor’s.
The problem with realism: Differentiating between democracies and dictatorships 
Clay R. Fuller | AEIdeas
U.S. Foreign Policy Faces Grave Danger, Part 1
by Alvin Rabushka via Thoughtful Ideas
This is the first in a series of posts explaining why. Before laying out the argument, let’s backtrack to the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. How many politicians, generals, diplomats, and prominent experts in universities and think tanks, some serving in the Bush and Obama administrations, would claim in late 2018 that these military operations were successful?
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AL-QAEDA FRUSTRATES US LED EFFORTS WITH TALIBAN

9/20/2018

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Al Qaeda reaffirmed its support for the Afghan Taliban, complicating America’s strategy to pursue a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda General Command reiterated its bayat (pledge of allegiance) to Taliban emir Haibatullah Akhundzada and recognized him as emir al mumineen (Commander of the Faithful) in a eulogy for Jalaluddin Haqqani. Al Qaeda-linked groups in South Asia and Syria released similar eulogies praising the late leader of the Haqqani Network.
Pakistan continues to harbor Taliban, including al Qaeda-linked Haqqanis
​According to a new report by the State Department, the Afghan Taliban and its Haqqani Network are still "operating in Pakistan-based safe havens and threatening U.S. and Afghan forces in Afghanistan." Pakistan has assisted the US in counterterrorism operations against al Qaeda. However, by refusing to move against the Taliban, including the Haqqanis, Pakistan is harboring al Qaeda's most important allies in the region.
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UPDATE ON SYRIA:  ASSAD IS WINNING

9/19/2018

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Assad wants to recover “every inch” of Syria and is already militarily on top. Finishing off the Idlib rebels would take him closer to victory, help secure Aleppo from attack and open roads to the coast and Damascus. - Reuters 

Michael O’Hanlon & Steven Heydemann write: As government forces close in on Idlib province in northern Syria, a catastrophe looms for the roughly 3 million Syrians living there. […] The United States must take a stand. We can’t reverse the course of the war, but we can at least take action to ensure that the people of Idlib are spared the worst — even if this entails some unpalatable moral compromises. - Washington Post
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Thomas Donnelly writes:  That the Assad regime survives at all is something of a wonder, after seven years of bloody war arising from relatively small and peaceful protests in January 2011. The process of survival, however, has cost Assad much of his autonomy, mortgaged to Russia and, especially, Iran. Indeed, what is emerging from Baghdad to Damascus is a kind of “Larger Lebanon,” where Tehran-backed Shia militias, created in the image of Hezbollah, hold the keys to the kingdoms. - The Weekly Standard
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remittances send imran khan to persian gulf & HOW TO UNDERSTAND AFGHANISTAN

9/19/2018

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Pakistani leader visits Gulf on first foreign trip 
Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for his first official foreign visit since his election last month. Khan was slated to meet with Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman today amid speculation that he will use the trip to request financial aid for his cash-strapped country. Khan is accompanied by Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Finance Minister Asad Umar as well as his adviser on commerce Abdul Razak Dawood. The delegation is due to leave for the United Arab Emirates tonight. Both countries host many Pakistani guest workers whose remittances provide Islamabad with a key source of foreign currency.  Read More  ​
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mbs after failed aramco privatization, the SAUDI'S FAILING FAST:  SOVEREIGN FUN BORROWING & IRAN HIRES A FINANCIAL ARSONIST

9/18/2018

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ARAMCO'S ZOMBIE IPO
In Saudi Arabia, black gold is still king
BY ALISON TAHMIZIAN MEUSE
The kingdom has put a highly-anticipated Aramco IPO on the back burner as it consolidates its stake in the global energy market
Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund: Borrowing money to make money?   
Karen E. Young | AEIdeas
FDD
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DEMILITARIZED ZONES IN SYRIA

9/18/2018

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Erdogan and Putin agree to a Syria DMZ
Russia and Turkey strike deal to avert Idlib offensive 
Russia and Turkey struck a deal on Monday to avert a looming Syrian regime assault on the last rebel stronghold in Idlib. The deal calls for the creation of a demilitarized buffer zone between government forces and rebels by Oct. 15. Under the deal, reached following a meeting in Sochi between President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia and Turkey will jointly patrol the buffer zone. According to Putin, the deal requires rebel groups to pull out their heavy weaponry while “radically minded rebels” like the al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham must withdraw from Idlib. Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif praised the deal, citing Tehran’s “intensive” diplomacy with Moscow and Ankara in recent weeks to avert an offensive that threatened a humanitarian catastrophe.  Read More  ​
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IRANIAN REPRESSION CONTINUES & WILL ISRAEL LEAD ARAB COALITION AGAINST IRAN

9/17/2018

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MEF:  IRAN CONTROLLING IRAQ
● http://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/733 
●https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/01/saudi-arabia-may-dig-canal-to-turn-qatar-into-an-island
● http://jcpa.org/is-a-schism-developing-in-the-sunni-camp/
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WILL CHINA BAIL OUT PAKISTAN?

9/17/2018

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Pakistan looks at IMF and Saudi Arabia for fiscal bailout
China poised to become Pakistan’s new strategic benefactor
Pakistan’s army chief visits Beijing after ‘Silk Road’ tension
(South China Morning Post) Pakistan’s army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa began a three-day visit to China on Sunday, Pakistan’s military said, days after a Pakistani minister stirred unease about Chinese Silk Road projects in the South Asian nation.
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A DISASTER CALLED OSLO & HOW TO KEEP HAMAS OUT OF THE WEST BANK

9/14/2018

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The Oslo Accords And The Failures Of Idealistic Internationalism
by Bruce Thornton via Front Page Magazine
Twenty-five years ago, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO chief Yasser Arafat stood in front of Bill Clinton in the White House Rose Garden and shook hands to mark their signing of the Oslo Accords. This pact included handing part of Judea and Samaria to the control of Palestinian Arabs. A year later the Palestinian Authority was created as the controlling authority that still governs part of the so-called West Bank.
40 years after the Camp David Accords, diplomats misunderstand why it happened
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner 
If any US president wants Middle Eastern peace to be part of his legacy, then he should recognize that peace is seldom made between equals but rather when one side recognizes its military defeat at the hands of the other.
MEF:  IS STATE LEARNING A LESSON ABOUT ABBAS & PEACE
The Grim Cost of the "Oslo War"
WHAT TRUMP GETS RIGHT ABOUT THE PEACE PROCESS "RESET"
oslo_at_25__a_personal_view.pdf
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the_oslo_disaster.pdf
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Top general claims IDF not ready for war
 According to IDF Ombudsman Yitzhak Brick, the Israeli military has invested most of its resources in the air force while neglecting the land corps, leaving Israel vulnerable to Hezbollah.
Gilead Sher writes: Forty years since Camp David, all central players are still present — except the Palestinians have moved onto the stage from behind curtain, and Jordan has stepped back from representing them. That happened with the signing of the Oslo Accords, providing mutual recognition and a goal, yet to be attained, to separate Israel and the Palestinians into two distinct national entities through negotiations. - War on the Rocks
​

Michael Rubin writes: Forty years ago Monday, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin signed the Camp David Accords […] Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama each launched their own initiatives, but each went nowhere. And as for President Trump’s “ deal of the century”: it increasingly appears the diplomatic equivalent of OJ Simpson’s hunt for the real killer. - American Enterprise Institute
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IS THIS THE END FOR AFGHANISTAN?  &  HOW TO END THE CRISIS IN IRAQ

9/13/2018

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https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article217947945.html?utmsource=Hoover+Daily+Report&utmcampaign=3580060d02-HDRCOPY01&utmmedium=email&utmterm=0_21b1edff3c-3580060d02-72527561

The US can defuse Iraq’s crisis
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ASSESSMENT OF THE LONG WAR IN 2018

9/11/2018

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Blaming Sunni-Shi'a Split for Middle East Unrest Is Too Simplistic
Policy decisions are being made based on the assumption that the Middle East is riven by a purely dualistic sectarian war between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims. While sectarianism is relevant, geopolitical competition, local disputes, and political rivalries are the core drivers of conflict in countries like Iraq and Syria.  Read more »
Stuck Fighting the Last War
 
// Hassan Hassan
It's 2011—not 2001—that defines the challenge facing the United States and its allies in combatting jihadism.
MEF
Al-Qaeda and the Taliban: The Alliance that Started the Forever War  by Tricia Bacon

The Long Aftermath of 9/11: How Terrorism Doesn’t End by Martha Crenshaw

With Us and Against Us: Understanding the Mixed Record of U.S. Partners on Counter-Terrorism Cooperation Since 9/11
 by Stephen Tankel

What Progress Has America Made after 17 Years of Global Counter-Terrorism Efforts? by Michael P. Dempsey

Retrospect and Prospect: On Endless War
 by David A. Brown, Tim Hoyt, and Craig Whiteside

Another Year of the War in Afghanistan by A. Trevor Thrall and Erik Goepner
Reflections on the War on Terror, 17 Years Later 
By David A. Brown, Tim Hoyt & Craig Whiteside, War on the Rocks: “Following the 9/11 attacks, successive U.S. administrations have promulgated three consistent objectives: First, to prevent additional mass casualty attacks on our homeland. Second, to find and punish those responsible. And third, to shatter the larger transnational terrorist movement’s capability and capacity to be a future threat.”
Taking Stock of a Shifting World Order
The postwar order seems poised to continue eroding, without a clear alternative in the offing. It has often taken cataclysmic events to inaugurate new eras of geopolitical order, but one hopes that the postwar order will instead be reinvigorated through farsighted statecraft. Read more »
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BASRA IN SOUTHERN IRAQ GOES UP IN FLAMS:  IRANIAN HATRED IN IRAQ WHILE IRANIAN LEADERSHIP MOVES TOWARD POLITICAL CENTER

9/11/2018

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Iran seeks to expand its political and security influence in Basra province, Iraq, possibly in order to circumvent forthcoming U.S. sanctions against Iranian oil exports. Iraqi protesters likely affiliated with Iranian proxies called for the installation of a temporary Basra government after weeks of protests over Basra’s water crisis. Iran may aim to leverage illicit Iraqi proxy smuggling networks in Basra to export Iranian oil.
Rouhani moves closer to Khamenei amid bipartisan backlash
 President Hassan Rouhani’s appearance before parliament to answer economic questions did not satisfy Principlists or Reformists. It did, however, please Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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PAKISTANI BLASPHEMY IN HOLLAND, WHY KHAN ISN'T UP TO THE CHALLENGE OF RUNNING PAKISTAN & PAKISTANI SANCTUARY FOR INSURGENTS

9/10/2018

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AEI
  • CSIS’ Seth G. Jones: The insurgent sanctuary in Pakistan
Khan is not equal to the challenge of running Pakistan
 IMAD ZAFAR
Propaganda is the best tool for keeping the masses ignorant of the facts and realities, and it has always been utilized effectively by Pakistan's invisible forces. It has been few a weeks since the establishment-backed government of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf was installed in the country through the controversial general elections in which the most popular party in Punjab province, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), was denied a level playing field. Imran Khan, the new prime minister, was...


Pakistan: New Government Fails to Support Minorities
by Kaswar Klasra  •  September 11, 2018 at 5:00 am
Pakistan seeks rejig of economic corridor, trade pact with China
BY KUNWAR KHULDUNE SHAHID
Officials say talks during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit were dominated by the China Pakistan Economic Corridor
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TALE OF TWO ASIA POLICIES, AFGHANISTAN COMMITMENT & SWARMS BUILDING

9/10/2018

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Can Peace Be Won in Afghanistan? 
By Omar Samad, Atlantic Council: “What remains uncertain at this point, however, are the answers to two overarching questions: How will key regional stakeholders—Pakistan, Russia, Iran, China, and India—manage shifting interests and threat perceptions at a time when the United States is pushing for a peace deal, and is there a contingency plan if talks fail?”
U.S., AFGHANISTAN: 
Taliban Say They’re Ready for Second Round of Talks With U.S.

By Kathy Gannon, AP: “The Taliban are ready for a second round of talks with the U.S., possibly this month, which is likely to focus on prisoner exchanges, confidence building measures, and ways to move from back-door meetings to formal negotiations, said Taliban officials in separate interviews in recent days.
A Winning Strategy for Afghanistan
By Stephen B. Young, Small Wars Journal: “The reasons for our failure are simple to understand but unacceptable for a great power.
Remembering the French War in Afghanistan by Olivier Schmitt

The Coming Swarm Might Be Dead on Arrival by Shmuel Shmuel

A Tale of Two Asia Policies by Zack Cooper
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IRAN'S RELATIONS WITH AL-QAEDA, PRESENCE IN SYRIA & benny avni on new us commitment in iraq needed

9/10/2018

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We Need a Strategy in Syria 
// Rep. Adam Kinzinger
'It's time to act.' 
Expediency and betrayal: Iran’s relationship with al-Qaeda
 Contrary to Trump administration assertions of Iranian support for al-Qaeda, relations between the two have historically been poor, a new report argues.
What to Do About 10,000 Al-Qaeda-Linked Terrorists in Idlib? 
From Al-Monitor: “Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed last week to get his Russian and Iranian counterparts to support his desperate bid for a cease-fire in Idlib, the stronghold of the al-Qaeda-linked terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, as well as other radical Salafi and armed gangs based in the northwestern Syrian province.”
Opportunity Knocks in Iraq Amid Iran Woes
By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun |
September 11, 2018

https://www.nysun.com/foreign/opportunity-knocks-in-iraq-amid-iran-woes/90381/
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WHAT TEHRAN'S SUMMIT EXPOSES ABOUT RUSSIAN, IRANIAN & TURKISH GOALS IN SYRIA

9/10/2018

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The End of U.S. Stabilization Efforts in Syria?
By Emily Burchfield, RealClearDefense: “DoD-led stability operations are not going away any time soon, especially in northeast Syria...”
Turkey pins hopes on cleric Sadr to form Iraqi government
 As Turkey waits to see which Iraqi political coalition comes up with the parliamentary majority necessary to install a new government, Ankara is rooting for the bloc of cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, which it sees as most likely to minimize US and Iranian influence in the country.
Three things the Tehran summit exposed about Russia, Turkey, Iran 'alliance'
 The summit in Tehran exposed important underlying dynamics within the Astana trio and made it clear the three actors see the US presence as a problem, albeit each for their own reason.
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INDIAN & US RELATIONS MOVING FORWARD:  GOAL PAKISTAN

9/6/2018

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What Next for US-India Military Ties? 
// Alyssa Ayres 
A new agreement between top U.S. and Indian officials will deepen military cooperation and bolster strategic ties between the two countries.
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Mattis Says U.S. Ready to Ink Defense Technology Pact With India 
By Anthony Capaccio, Bloomberg: “U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said he’s ready to sign a key defense cooperation agreement with India, as tensions remained over threatened American sanctions.”
Dunford, Pompeo pressure Pakistan on militant support
(Military Times) Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Marine Corps Gen. Joseph Dunford and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with their Pakistani counterparts Wednesday to try to persuade Islamabad to do more against the terror networks operating within its borders.

 Pompeo, Dunford hopeful US-Pakistan relations can restart
(Military Times) Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Marine Corps Gen. Joseph Dunford said rounds of talks with Pakistan’s leaders Wednesday provided an opportunity to “reset the relationship” between the two countries but acknowledged both sides had a long way to go on key security issues. 

U.S., INDIA:
U.S., India Seal Military Communications Pact, Plan More Exercises

By Idrees Ali & Sanjeev Miglani, Reuters: “India and the United States signed an accord on secure military communications that both sides hailed as a breakthrough on Thursday, possibly opening the way for sales of sensitive U.S. military equipment to India.”

U.S., PAKISTAN:
U.S., Pakistan Push for ‘Reset’ in Ties 
By Nick Wadhams & Ismail Dilawar, Bloomberg: “There’s one thing about being a military family, but one Missouri family is taking that title to a new level.”
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WHY THE ISRAELI'S REMAIN SHY OF VICTORY & THE NEED TO CONTAIN GAZA

9/5/2018

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MEQ
Why Netanyahu keeps Oslo Accords alive
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu implemented successfully his plan of preserving the Oslo interim agreement, while distancing any possibility for a two-state solution.
25 YEARS AFTER OSLO:  WHY RABIN FAILED
MEQ:  REFUGEE STATUS REASSIGNED BY U.S. 
A Farewell to the PLO?
Editorial of The New York Sun | September 10, 2018
​
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/a-farewell-to-the-plo/90380
US to shutter Palestinian interests office in Washington 
The Donald Trump administration is expected to announce the closing of the Palestine Liberation Organization’s Washington office today, the Wall Street Journal reports. The move aims to pressure the Palestinian Authority to resume its participation in US-led peace talks with Israel that the Palestinians have boycotted since Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. National security adviser John Bolton is expected to officially make the announcement during a speech today at the conservative Federalist Society, his first since joining the Trump administration. Bolton is also expected to threaten sanctions against International Criminal Court judges if the court pursues investigations against the United States or Israel.  Read More  ​
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