CounterStrikeMedia
  • Home
    • American Foreign Policy
    • Emerging Threat Assessment
    • Foreign Policy Challenges for 2022
    • FINAL BATTLE: FAITH, REASON & MILITANCY
    • The World's Most Pressing Foreign Policy Challenge
    • Geography, Strategy, Great Power Competition
    • Monetarism, SANCTIONS & TERROR FINANCING
    • Congressional Reform
    • Demography
    • Pentagon Acquisition Reform
    • Quadrennial Defense Review Posture
    • Post Bretton-Woods: Monetary & Exchange Rate Reform
    • Thought Leadership: International Political Economy, Foreign Affairs
  • Regional Policies
    • Monetary Regimes, Exchange Rates, Capital - Current Accounts, Crisis
    • Fiscal Policy
    • Macro Trends
    • China
    • Mexico/Central/South America
    • Israel
    • Iran
    • Iraq
    • Russia
    • India
    • Syria
    • Chechnya
    • Pakistan
    • Africa
    • North Korea
  • Media
    • TED Video & Talks
    • Radio
    • Television
    • Newspapers
    • Book Reviews
  • About
    • CAFE HAYEK
    • The Most Pressing Challenge Facing America
    • The Revolution in Military Affairs
  • U.S. Central Command CENTCOM: The Long War
  • State of the Nation
  • SOUNDCLOUD
  • International Relations Jobs: Global Ranking Think Tanks
  • Tribute: Fouad Ajami & Bernard Lewis
  • Women & International Affairs
  • William Holland Blog
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
    • Topical Newsletter
  • OIL - ENERGY MARKETS

GLOBAL strike MEDIA
u.s. central command
centcom & The long war

THE LONG WAR & AFRICA:  IRREGULAR WAR CONTINUES; MARTIN KRAMER REVEALS THE 7 BLACK SWANS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST

9/19/2019

0 Comments

 
Embracing Special Operations Civil Affairs Support to the IIR
By Benjamin F. Ordiway, Small Wars Journal: “From an organizational perspective, SOF leadership should consider engaging embassies to rethink team employment so teams can best identify, assess, and potentially leverage critical physical and human infrastructure within the civil component to achieve operational and strategic effects."
MARTIN KRAMER
The Unbalanced
by Charles Hill via The Caravan
Balance is one of the innate concepts of the human condition, vital but never entirely attainable. Aristotle concludes his Politics with the imperative in every society of seeking a balance between the male “Dorian” and female “Phrygian” modes – not necessarily gendered but a human necessity all the same. Balance in baseball is a goal; the American League’s long streak of victories over the National League in the All-Star Games is concerning to the keepers of the sport. And, most obviously, the balance-of-power doctrine in matters of war and diplomacy are as old as these arts themselves.
JORDAN:  Saud Al-Sharafat writes: As Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood struggles to avoid continued fragmentation and domestic isolation, the groups are likely to hone their focus on external targets, such as the ‘Deal of the Century,’ in order to bolster domestic support. Even so, and despite some parliamentary willingness to engage, it appears increasingly unlikely that the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan will be able to return to the type of strength demonstrated just eight years ago during the Arab Spring. – Washington Institute
Picture
  • The Pentagon is taking on ISIS 'clandestine insurgency'
Irregular warfare remains the threat, despite a Marine Corps shift to the near-peer fight
(Marine Corps Times) As the Marine Corps and its sister services shift focus to near peer battles and the range of ways to meet that fight, some experts think they may be losing sight of ways in which other threats could emerge both separate from peers and from them through other means.
  New AFRICOM chief in Niger to assess security in volatile western Africa
(Stars & Stripes) U.S. Africa Command’s Gen. Stephen Townsend met with American troops in Niger on Thursday during a visit to assess security in the West Africa region, which is grappling to counter several Islamic militant groups. 
 Africa File is a biweekly analysis and assessment of the Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa and related security and political dynamics. Each edition begins "At a Glance” followed by country-specific updates. Read this week’s edition here!
  • At a Glance: Global counterterrorism efforts have passed their high-water mark and are receding. US Africa Command is shifting its prioritization from the counterterrorism mission to great power competition, a move also intended to reduce risk after a 2017 attack killed four servicemen in Niger. However, the Salafi-jihadi movement continues to make gains in Africa, including in areas in which previous counterterrorism efforts had significantly reduced Salafi-jihadi groups’ capabilities. 
  • September 17 Briefing: Counterterrorism efforts have reduced Salafi-jihadi activity in North Africa significantly since 2015. These gains are vulnerable, however, as Libya’s civil war continues to churn and Algeria, typically a security exporter, navigates a fraught political transition. The return of North African foreign fighters from Syria and Iraq will likely also contribute to a renewed Salafi-jihadi threat within and emanating from North Africa in the coming year. 
  • Check out detailed analysis on:
    • North Africa
    • East Africa
    • West Africa
The remnants of the Islamic State have returned to the group’s insurgent roots since the destruction of its land caliphate earlier this year, but it may be regrouping to make another land grab, the Pentagon says. The terrorist group has been operating in a “clandestine” fashion since losing the last of its territory in Iraq and Syria, said Chris Maier, director of the Pentagon’s Defeat-ISIS Task Force, in a Wednesday press briefing. – Washington Examiner
0 Comments

THE SHIA HIT THE SUNNI HEARTLAND & RIYADH WANTS TO GO NUCLEAR WITH AMERICA'S HELP

9/18/2019

0 Comments

 
 Are air defense systems ready to confront drone swarms?
(Defense News) The attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities on Sept. 14 served as a reality check for countries struggling to define the level of the threat posed by drone swarms and low-altitude cruise missiles. 
  • NYT’s Bret Stephens: The Trump Doctrine, revealed 
  • AEI’s Michael Rubin: Military strikes on Iran? Here are 5 possible targets
  • "Lebanon, Hezbollah and Iran’s Emerging Client State," Tony Badran and Jonathan Schanzer, The Wall Street Journal
  • "U.S.-Iran next moves — Déjà vu of Obama administration mistakes?" Jacob Nagel, The Hill
Tom Rogan writes: For all Zarif’s hyperbolic tendencies, the foreign minister is aligned with a more moderate faction under Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. He knows that there are only two ways for Iran to escape the catastrophic sanctions pressure it now faces: Either wait in hope that a Democrat defeats Trump in 2020 and rejoins the nuclear agreement, or agree to a new nuclear agreement with Trump on terms more favorable to U.S. interests. That’s why Rouhani was moving toward meeting Trump at next week’s United Nations General Assembly. – Washington Examiner 

Michael Rubin writes: Military action against Iran seems increasingly likely as intelligence and forensic evidence collected in the wake of the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil installations suggests Iranian responsibility. While diplomats, intelligence analysts, and politicians can debate the wisdom of military strikes, if the United States (or Saudi) government makes such a decision, what might be the primary targets? Here are five. – Washington Examiner ​
The Peace Fantasy
by Samuel Tadros via The Caravan
In the introduction to his book, Power, Faith and Fantasy, the Middle East historian turned diplomat turned Israeli politician, Michael Oren, reflected on the chosen title. These three themes had guided the American adventure in the region power or “the pursuit of American interests,” faith or “the impact of religion in the shaping of American attitudes and policies,” and finally fantasy, “the idea of the Middle East has always enchanted Americans.” To be fair to America, it was hardly unique in its fantasies. In his magnum opus, The Chatham House Version, Elie Kedourie had aptly diagnosed the British fantasy “all those episodes show successive and cumulative manifestations of illusion, misjudgment, and failure.” Nowhere has this been truer than in the Holy Land.
The Iran War: Danger Lurks In Inaction 
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | September 19, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/war-in-the-gulf-danger-lurks-in-inaction/90838/
Saudi Arabia: U.S. Senators Urge an End to Saudi Nuclear Talks.  Senators Ed Markey and Jeff Merkley, members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, wrote to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Energy Secretary Rick Perry urging the administration to discontinue recent talks with Saudi Arabia about nuclear power development.  "Sharing nuclear technology with Saudi Arabia, especially without adequate safeguards, will give Riyadh the tools it needs to turn the crown prince's nuclear weapons vision into reality," the senators wrote in the letter.  Perry told reporters on Tuesday at a nuclear power conference in Vienna the United States would only provide Saudi Arabia with nuclear power technology if it signed an agreement with a U.N. watchdog allowing for intrusive snap inspections.  But Saudi Arabia has resisted agreeing to strict nonproliferation restrictions, known as the gold standard, that would block it from enriching uranium and reprocessing spent fuel, potential pathways to making a nuclear bomb. Reuters VOA News
HOW TRUMP'S INSTINCTS ON IRAN ARE WRONG
Stand up to Iran’s oil market terrorism
Saudi Arabia and Iran Careen toward Conflict by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
September 15, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/59357/saudi-iran-careen-toward-potential-conflict
HOW IRAN USES IRAQ
THE ENDGAME BEGINS
ROBIN MILLS OIL EXPERT
TRUMP'S IRANIAN TRAP
John Bolton would counsel against appeasement  In response to Tehran’s latest attack on Saudi Arabia and threats against the U.S.
A Major Attack on Saudi Aramco Leaves the U.S. in a Difficult Spot
From Stratfor Worldview: “Given the facilities' geographic location, the Saudi air defense focus on Yemen, the angles of impact, the overflight reports over Kuwait and debris recovered from a failed cruise missile, it is quite likely that the attacks came from Iraqi or Iranian territory — or both."
  • WaPo’s Josh Rogin: How Trump can punish Iran, without starting a war 
  • AFPC’s Ilan Berman: Saudi strikes are a critical test for Trump
Michael Eisenstadt writes: An effective U.S. gray zone strategy could help blunt Iran’s counter-pressure campaign, constrain its ability to engage in destabilizing regional activities, and dissuade it from eventually attempting a slow-motion nuclear breakout. Conversely, failure to pursue such a strategy could embolden Tehran on all of these fronts. More fundamentally, if the United States does not operate successfully in the gray zone against a third-tier power like Iran, this will raise questions about its ability to counter much more capable actors like Russia and China in the years to come. – Washington Institute

Tom Rogan writes: But short of Saudi military action, it makes sense for President Trump to pledge, as he did on Wednesday, to “substantially increase sanctions” on Tehran. Absent this new pain, Iran will see its attack as a stunning success: as proof that it can escalate against America’s international order without consequence and thus as a reason to risk more aggressive attacks in the future, including against America. – Washington Examiner 

Ilan Berman writes: The stakes are exceptionally high. A cogent, hard-hitting response to the Saudi attacks could go a long way toward reassuring America’s Middle Eastern partners that it remains committed to repelling Iranian aggression and safeguarding their security. A lackluster U.S. reply, on the other hand, would inevitably result in a massive loss of confidence in the Trump administration among the countries of the region. That, in turn, raises the risks of a wider conflict, as the Saudis (and perhaps others) are prompted to take matters into their own hands.  – The Hill
Anthony H. Cordesman writes: As Iran may well have already demonstrated, cruise missiles and UCAVs can also be used to counter or supplement economic warfare and deal with sanctions. They reinforce the fact that the ability to escalate in some military ways is not producing some new form of mutually assured destruction, but is integrating political, economic, and military warfare. Seen from a broader perspective, they are a warning that the only rules to future warfare are that there are no rules, and that the only fully predictable aspect of the future of warfare is that it will be at least as unpredictable as in the past. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
In a September 17, 2019 article titled ‘Rescue the World from the Persian Nazism,’ Ahmed Al-Jarallah, editor-in-chief of the Kuwaiti English-language daily Arab Times, wrote that the issue of confronting Iran is no longer just a matter of thwarting the Persian expansion project but a matter of countering a threat to global security. In this situation, he said, American and European notions of going back to the Barack Obama policy of rapprochement with Iran are no longer feasible; the world must act to ensure a steady supply of oil at reasonable prices, for a failure to do so will result in a global recession. – Middle East Media Research Institute
Iran's Attack On Saudi Arabia Reveals Our Foreign Policy Muddle
by Bruce Thornton via Front Page Magazine
We're stuck in fossilized paradigms while our enemies grow stronger.
0 Comments

TUNISIA:  THE OUTSIDERS ARE IN & ALGERIAN PROTESTERS CRIMINALIZED

9/18/2019

0 Comments

 
Leader of Tunisia’s Islamist party elected parliament speaker 
Tunisia’s parliament elected Ennahda leader Rached Ghannouchi as its speaker on Wednesday, one month after the moderate Islamist party finished first in last month's elections. Ghannouchi secured 123 out of 217 for his bid following a deal with the Qalb Tounes (Heart of Tunisia) party of media mogul and defeated presidential candidate Nabil Karoui. Qalb Tounes parliamentarian Samira Chaouachi was elected first vice speaker of the parliament. Ennahda now has until Friday to name its candidate for prime minister.
Read More  ​
Tunisian parties reject Islamist-led government 
Tunisia’s main political parties on Thursday rejected a proposal to appoint a prime minister from the moderate Islamist party Ennahda, which finished first in the Oct. 6 parliamentary elections. The party won 52 out of 217 seats, well short of the required number to govern on its own. If Ennahda fails to form a Cabinet within two months, another party could be asked to try to form a government. Political deadlock risks undermining Tunisia’s efforts to improve the economy and fight terrorism.
Read More  
reuters.com
Algeria court detains former culture minister on corruption charges 
Algeria’s Supreme Court on Monday ordered the detention of former Minister of Culture Khalid Toumi on corruption charges. Toumi is accused of wasting public money and awarding illegal privileges. He joins a growing list of former officials and well-connected businessmen arrested in a crackdown on corruption following President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s resignation in April. Meanwhile, weekly anti-regime demonstrations continue, with Algerians demanding that the Dec. 12 presidential elections be delayed until more of the ruling elite steps down.
Read More  
reuters.com
Algeria announces five candidates for presidential election 
Algeria’s election authority over the weekend announced the final list of candidates running in the Dec. 12 presidential elections. Five candidates, including three close to former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, made the cut. Meanwhile, the weekly anti-regime demonstrations that brought Bouteflika down in April continue despite his resignation, with Algerians demanding that elections be delayed until more of the ruling elite steps down.
Read More  
reuters.com
TUNISIA MUST GET OFF FOREIGN AID
Algeria releases the final list of candidates running in the Dec. 12 presidential elections.
New Tunisian president replaces foreign and defense ministers 
Tunisia’s President Kais Saied approved on Tuesday the dismissal of the country’s foreign and defense ministers, less than a week after taking his oath. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed appointed, after consultation with the president, Karim Jamoussi as foreign minister and Sabri Bachtobji as defense minister. The changes come as parliament prepares to hold coalition talks. The moderate Islamist party Ennahda came in first in the country’s Oct. 6 parliamentary elections, winning 52 out of 217 seats — although it is well short of the required number of seats needed to govern.
Read More  
reuters.com
Tunisia's 'poker face' president sworn in
Tunisia's new president, whose stolid demeanor earned him the nickname "RoboCop," has vowed to combat corruption.
Tunisia swears in new president 
Conservative jurist Kais Saied was sworn in as Tunisia’s new president on Wednesday after a landslide victory in this month’s election. In his oath of office before parliament, the 61-year-old vowed to fight corruption and shore up the freedoms gained in the years since the country's 2011 Arab Spring revolution. The Oct. 13 election marked a strong rebuke of Tunisia's political elites, with Saied and media mogul Nabil Karoui making it to the run-off by campaigning as outsiders.
Read More  
reuters.com
Kais Saied faces a fractured political landscape in Tunisia after win
Conservative Kais Saeid has won a landslide victory in Tunisia’s second round of the presidential elections.
AL-MONITOR:  CAN TUNISIA GET A UNITY GOVERNMENT
Conservative jurist declared winner of Tunisian presidential election 
Tunisia’s electoral commission announced Monday that a preliminary count shows conservative jurist Kais Saied won Sunday’s presidential election with almost 73% of the vote. His opponent, media mogul Nabil Karoui, conceded defeat earlier on Monday. The electoral commission said turnout stood at 55%. The election marked a strong rebuke of Tunisia's political elites, with both candidates who made it to the run-off campaigning as outsiders.
Read More  ​
MEI’s new book, Escaping the Conflict Trap: Toward Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East, co-edited by Salem and Harrison, is now available in paperback or for Kindle.
Tunisia: Presidential Candidate Released from Prison.  Tunisian courts on Wednesday decided to release presidential candidate, Nabil Karoui, from prison.  Karoui has been detained since August for allegations of money laundering and tax fraud, yet since managed to come in second in last month’s elections.  The runoff is set to be held in four days.  Africa News BBC Gulf News
Intel: Tunisia’s Islamic conservatives bounce back in parliamentary polls
Exit polls from Sunday's nationwide parliamentary elections suggest that the pro-Islamic Ennahda came in first, followed by the newly established Qalb Tounes, or Heart of Tunisia, led by jailed tycoon Nabil Karaoui, who will be in the Oct. 13 presidential runoff.
Moderate Islamist party claims victory in Tunisia parliamentary elections 
Tunisia’s moderate Islamist party Ennahda won the most votes in Sunday’s parliamentary election, a party spokesman said, citing what he called preliminary results. Earlier on Sunday, jailed media magnate Nabil Karoui's Heart of Tunisia party also claimed victory. An exit poll by Sigma Conseil showed Ennahda in first place with 17.5% of votes and Heart of Tunisia in second place with 15.6%. Preliminary results will be announced on Oct. 10 and official results on Nov. 17.
Read More  ​
Picture
Tunisia’s electoral commission rejects jailed candidate's call to delay vote 
Tunisia’s electoral commission on Wednesday rejected calls to postpone the presidential elections. The second round is scheduled for Oct. 13. The commission “can neither advance nor postpone the date of the elections under the constitution,” commission head Nabil Baffoun said. A spokesman for imprisoned candidate Nabil Karoui had called for suspending the elections as long as he remains in prison. Karoui, who owns Nessma TV channel, was detained Aug. 23 on suspicion of tax evasion and money laundering. The media mogul came in second in Tunisia’s election last month, behind conservative jurist Kais Saied.
Read More  
arabnews.com
Algeria arrests former ruling party chief 
Algeria on Thursday announced the arrest of the leader of the National Liberation Front, which has ruled Algeria since independence in 1962. Mohamed Djemai is accused of “destroying official files and documents.” Authorities are simultaneously cracking down on protesters demanding that more figures linked to the former regime of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika step down. Fodil Boumala, a prominent opposition activist and anti-government protester, was arrested Wednesday, fellow activists and a lawyer said on Thursday. Meanwhile, weekly street protests now face a clampdown after army chief of staff Ahmed Gaed Saleh issued orders this week to stop outside protesters from entering the capital.
Read More  
reuters.com
 
Deposed Tunisian president dies in Saudi exile 
Former Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali died in exile Thursday, days after Tunisia held its second presidential elections since his ouster ushered in democratic governance. The 83-year-old had been living in Saudi Arabia since the 2011 popular uprising that began the Arab Spring. In the elections, the conservative law professor Kais Saied and the imprisoned media mogul Nabil Karoui have advanced to the second round of the presidential elections, marking a sharp rejection of the country’s political establishment.  Read More  ​
Tunisian presidential finalist remains in prison 
A Tunisian court is refusing to release Nabil Karoui from prison even after he advanced to the second round of the presidential elections, his lawyer said Wednesday. The media mogul is under investigation in a money laundering probe. Karoui came in second in Sunday's election, behind conservative jurist Kais Saied.  Read More  ​
Political outsiders win first round in Tunisia’s presidential elections
Tunisia’s electoral commission announced Tuesday that conservative law professor Kais Saied and imprisoned media mogul Nabil Karoui will advance to the second round of the presidential elections, likely to be held next month. Saied, who ran as an independent, won 18.4% of the votes in Sunday’s election. Karoui, who is under investigation in a money laundering probe, took 15.6%. The results mark a sharp rejection of the country’s political establishment.  Read More  
Imposition of election date signals end to government patience
 Algerians protested the decision to hold elections in December as their demands are left unmet and many activists and opposition members linger in jail.
0 Comments

ISRAEL:  THE DEAD LOCK

9/18/2019

0 Comments

 
What's next for Netanyahu?
 Although Benjamin Netanyahu failed to form a governing coalition, it doesn't mean he's out of the game just yet.
Netanyahu rival rejects latest proposal for unity government 
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu extended Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz a new proposal to join a unity government on Thursday but was rebuffed as time runs out for the Israeli leader. The proposed government would have included Netanyahu’s Likud party and its allies on the religious right. Gantz dismissed the offer, saying Netanyahu “is not seeking unity but immunity” ahead of his possible indictment in three criminal cases. Netanyahu has until next Thursday, Oct. 24, to form a government before President Reuven Rivlin tasks Gantz to try to form a government. Gantz's party came in first in last month's Knesset elections, winning 33 seats to the Likud's 32.
Read More  
timesofisrael.com
Netanyahu, not Israel, needs unity government to survive
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is misleading the people when he claims that only a unity government would be apt to tackle the Iran threat.
Liberman’s secular campaign turns him into kingmaker
 Many right and center-left voters liked what Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman offered them in the last election campaign: a secular unity government that would end religious coercion.
Israel swears in new Knesset without a government 
Israel swears in a new Knesset today even as the country struggles to form a new government. Almost all of the members of the previous Knesset, which lasted just five months, will be returning, as only 17 of 120 lawmakers were freshly elected in September’s vote. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman this morning as Netanyahu tries to convince Liberman and his secular nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party to join him in a coalition government. The meeting was planned after unity government talks between Netanyahu's Likud and its main rival, the Blue and White party of Benny Gantz, ended without result.
Read More  
timesofisrael.com
Israel is quickly running out of time to form a new government and avoid an unprecedented third election within a year as the judicial noose tightens around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The pre-indictment hearing in three graft cases against the Israeli leader resumes Sunday following two days of testimony this week. Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit has agreed to space out the four-day hearing over two weeks, fixing Yom Kippur, Oct. 9, as the deadline to wrap up the process. Netanyahu’s legal team has so far presented its arguments in the most serious case, in which the prime minister is accused of taking bribes from telecom tycoon Shaul Elovich. On Sunday and Monday, his lawyers will address allegations that Netanyahu accepted cigars, jewelry and other illegal gifts from businessmen as well as separate charges that he backed legislation benefiting Israeli press group Yedioth Aharonot in exchange for promises of favorable coverage.
​
Netanyahu himself did not attend last week’s hearing as his Likud party focused on advancing coalition talks. With talks with the Likud’s main rival, the centrist Blue and White party, at a standstill, Netanyahu has been courting the secular nationalist Yisrael Beitenu of former Defense Secretary Avigdor Liberman. Liberman’s party said on Wednesday that if Likud and Blue and White fail to reach a power-sharing agreement by Yom Kippur, it would present its own offer for a unity government. Liberman has so far declined to back either candidate for the mission of forming the next government, insisting that he would support only a secular unity government, without the ultra-Orthodox parties. It is now widely believed that Netanyahu will hand back to President Reuven Rivlin the mandate for forming a new government before the 28-day deadline expires and push for new elections. 
Despite Political Uncertainty, Israel’s Security Posture Remains Strong
Jacob Nagel | Visiting Fellow
Intel: Why Israel’s president chose Netanyahu to form new government
A week after Israel’s legislative elections, President Reuven Rivlin has chosen Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a first attempt at forming a government, but a path to a majority coalition remains difficult.
Netanyahu juggles high-stakes politics and fraud charges
This coming week will prove crucial for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he tries to assemble a government while facing a likely indictment on fraud charges. The Israeli leader has been summoned by Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit for a pre-indictment hearing on corruption charges starting Wednesday. The two-day hearing offers Netanyahu the chance to plead his case and to convince Mandelblit to cancel impending indictments against him, or at least reduce the charges. At the moment, Netanyahu is expected to be charged for fraud and breach of trust in two cases and of receiving bribes in a third one. Netanyahu remains defiant and asked that the proceedings be aired live so he can tell the public “my side,” but Mandelblit’s office turned him down.
Meanwhile, representatives of Netanyahu’s Likud and its main rival, the Blue and White party, continue negotiations on forming a national unity government following inconclusive elections earlier this month. The Blue and White party has rejected a proposal from President Reuven Rivlin for a power-sharing deal. Rivlin has also proposed amending the law to create the status of “interim prime minister” for Blue and White leader Benny Gantz in case Netanyahu is indicted. The party’s leadership reiterated in recent days its electoral commitment not to form a government with Netanyahu.

Nevertheless, the two parties are pursuing talks following Rivlin’s decision to give Netanyahu the first shot at trying to put a new government together. Netanyahu himself has acknowledged that in the current deadlocked situation, chances are slim for the establishment of a majority coalition. Talks will be suspended Sunday through Tuesday for the Jewish New Year, resuming on Wednesday. Netanyahu has 28 days to negotiate a majority coalition, but the president can accord him a two-week extension. After that, Rivlin may task another candidate with the mission. The political stalemate, however, could also force a third election in less than a year.
In Israel's Vote, Bibi Looms as the Key Issue
By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | September 17, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/in-israels-vote-bibi-looms-as-the-key-issue/90833/
TEL AVIV -- Left or right? War or diplomacy? Socialism or free-market economy? Tuesday's election here is about none of these. It's about Bibi.
​
Israel's politics nowadays seem almost as crazy as Britain's, but unlike the Mother of Parliaments, which can't sort out London's relationship with Brussels, the Knesset's biggest issue was merely to decide whether to keep or oust Benjamin Netanyahu -- the leader who this summer became the country's longest-serving prime minister. Its inability to settle that triggered a new election.

Continue Reading
Netanyahu down but not out
Despite the disappointing numbers emerging from Israel's election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is telling his supporters that he is not done yet and that he intends to fight.
Netanyahu calls for unity government amid electoral deadlock 
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today called on his rival Benny Gantz of the Blue and White party to join him in a unity government to avoid a possible third vote in a row. Gantz, however, has previously refused to govern alongside Netanyahu, who is under investigation in three corruption probes. With nearly all votes counted in Tuesday's election, the Likud has won 31 Knesset seats while its rival Blue and White party has 33. A majority of 61 out of 120 seats are needed to form a government. The tight race leaves the secular nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party of former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, who refuses to sit with Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox allies, as the apparent kingmaker with eight seats. Meanwhile, the predominantly Arab Joint List, with 13 seats, has yet to decide whether to back Gantz.
​
Netanyahu's remarks come a day after he canceled his trip to the UN General Assembly after his Likud party and its allies failed to garner enough votes to form a government. Foreign Minister Israel Katz will address the world body in New York instead.
 Read More  ​
 Israeli parties deadlocked after Tuesday's vote 
The electoral blocs centered around Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and its rival Blue and White party both failed to reach a majority of 61 Knesset seats in Tuesday's do-over election, according to preliminary results. That leaves Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beitenu party as kingmaker with nine seats. Liberman, a former minister of defense, has called for a “national, liberal, broad” unity government including his party, the Likud and Blue and White while rejecting the participation of Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox allies.
Addressing his supporters early his morning, Netanyahu did not concede defeat or claim victory but promised to seek the formation of a new "Zionist" government that excludes Arab parties. President Reuven Rivlin said Tuesday that he will press party leaders to quickly form a new government. Rivlin's office said that his nomination of a candidate to form the next government would be guided in part by the need to avoid a third election, after two votes in five months.

Read More  ​
Israel's Election IronyGuess Who Could Emerge in a Pivotal Role?
Editorial of The New York Sun | September 17, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/israels-election-irony/90836
Israel: Election Results Split.  A day after their second dead-heat election in five months, Israelis awoke Wednesday with their two main parties jockeying for the support of the smaller factions they will need to form a governing coalition.  Official election results released on Wednesday after 91 percent of the vote was counted show that neither of the party has a clear path to securing a majority in the Knesset.  The negotiations after April’s election ended in stalemate.  Haaretz The Washington Post
Israel-Palestine Peace Is Possible
by Daniel Kurtzer via The Caravan
Protracted conflicts are protracted for a reason. They involve deeply-held grievances; ethnic, religious or ideological animosities; territorial disputes; boundary issues; political power struggles; clashes over the distribution of wealth; and competing narratives; among other factors. Protracted conflicts are not static, but rather evolve over time. Conflict management and mitigation, a strategy for dealing with conflicts that appear impervious to resolution, miss the point; for these strategies often do not take into account evolving changes through which conflicts pass.


How To Think About Israeli-Palestinian Peace
by Dennis Ross via The Caravan
I have worked on trying to resolve or ameliorate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in formal and informal capacities since the 1980’s.  Through two intifadas (uprisings) and the Oslo process, I have seen the conflict in its human terms and the toll it takes.  There were certainly times in the 1990’s when it seemed to be possible to settle the conflict.  Even after the Second Intifada, which imposed such a terrible price on both Israelis and Palestinians, I believed that the gaps between the two sides were bridgeable.
0 Comments

    Picture
    HOW ISRAEL WINS: DANIEL PIPES
    File Size: 855 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File


    Picture
    prism_9-1.pdf
    File Size: 8134 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File

    FRAGILITY & FAILURE
    File Size: 3456 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File

    CIVILIAN LED APPROACH: THE LONG WAR
    File Size: 806 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File


    Picture
    US: THE LONG WAR GAME
    File Size: 564 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File

    America's Anti-Colonial Wars Abroad
    File Size: 616 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File


    RETHINKING EGYPT'S ECONOMY
    File Size: 2736 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File

    Picture
    EGYPT: CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS, ECONOMY
    File Size: 53 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File


    Picture

    national-identity_web-1.pdf
    File Size: 1137 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture
    AFRICA'S POST COLONIAL ERA ENDING
    File Size: 156 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File


    Picture
    AFRICAN ARAB SPRING
    AFRICAN ARAB SPRING
    File Size: 786 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File


    Picture
    ISHMAEL IS NOT FATHER OF ARABS
    ISHMAEL NOT FATHER OF ARAB CIVILIZATION
    File Size: 995 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File


    Picture
    DEFEATING SECTARIANISM IN MIDDLE EAST
    rand_rb10052.pdf
    File Size: 856 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File


    Picture
    SECULARISM, NATIONALISM, ISLAMISM: MAKING MODERN MIDDLE EAST
    File Size: 95 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File


    terrorism-tactics-and-transformation.pdf
    File Size: 1422 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File

    Picture
    CHANGING DYNAMICS OF SALAFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS

    FOREIGN AFFAIRS - THE ARAB SPRING @ 5
    File Size: 15719 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File

    Picture

    Picture
    BIN SALMAN & THE REFORM OF SAUDI ARABIA
    File Size: 83 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File


    Picture
    NATIONAL INTEREST, ARAB SPRING
    File Size: 207 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File


    Picture
    FOLLOWING VISION 2030

    Picture
    HOOVER; ISLAMISM

    Picture

    Picture
    MEF RADIO LIVE

    Picture
    SECTARIANISM MIDDLE EAST.pdf
    File Size: 1462 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File


    Picture
    THE PAKISTAN READER

    Picture
    ARAB SPRING & POLITICAL REFORM
    File Size: 11836 kb
    File Type: pdf
    Download File


    Picture
    ISRAELI NEWS NETWORK

    Picture
    THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM

    Picture
    250 YEARS OF AMERICAN IRREGULAR WAR

    Picture
    AEI - CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT: SALIFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS GROWING

    Picture

    Picture
    ABBAS MILANI HOOVER PAGE: IRAN & U.S. RELATIONS

    Picture
    HOOVER INSTITUTION BLOG ON THE NEAR EAST

    Picture
    JEWISH INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY OF AMERICA

    Picture
    FATA PAKISTAN RESEARCH CENTER


    Picture
    ISRAELI NUCLEAR POSTURE & DOCTRINES

    Picture
    CONTAIN, DEGRADE, DEFEAT: PLAN FOR MIDDLE EAST

    Picture
    THE PLAN TO DEFEAT THE ISLAMIC STATE & al-QAEDA

    Picture
    CENTER FOR SECURITY, REGIONAL STUDIES, KABUL

    Picture
    AfPak POLICY OPTIONS

    Picture
    ISLAMISM & INTERNATIONAL ORDER

    Picture
    HOOVER INSTITUTION PUBLICATION ON U.S. NEAR EAST POLICY


    Picture

    Picture
    Israeli Security & Gulf States

    Picture
    PRINCIPALS GUIDING US POLICY IN MIDDLE EAST

    Picture
    HOW ISRAEL WINS

    Picture
    FREE BOOKS ON MIDDLE EAST

    Picture
    AEI: GLOBAL JIHADI THREAT & BEYOND

    Picture
    HOOVER: OPERATIONAL GUIDE FOR THE LONG WAR

    Picture
    THE ETTINGER REPORT: U.S. ISRAELI RELATIONS

    Picture
    GOOGLE NEWS PAKISTAN

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture
    HOW TO WIN WORLD WAR IV

    Picture
    REQUIREMENTS FOR THE LONG WAR






    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    September 2015


    Categories

    All


    RSS Feed


    WASH. INSTITUTE NEAR EAST POLICY
    BROOKINGS
    TAHRIR INSTITUTE MIDDLE EAST POLICY
    MIDDLE EAST FORUM
    BELFER CENTER

    Tweets by WilliamHolland
    Tweets by LongWarJournal

What Our Clients Are Saying

"For topical research on items related to international political economy, unrivaled."

Contact Us

    Subscribe Today!

Submit