NYPOST

• Harvard's Ruth Wisse and author Rick Richman on the Balfour Declaration

MIDDLE EAST FORUM:  BOTH TURKEY & ARABS WELCOMED BALFOUR DECLARATION

JPost's Anna Ahronheim on Hezbollah's new Golan commander

H.R. McMaster on Iran, Iraq, Syria and the Kurdish Issue 
By SWJ Editors, Small Wars Journal: “McMaster spoke this week with Alhurra, a U.S.-funded Arabic-language news network, discussing recent developments in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Qatar.”

PAKISTAN ASKS U.S. TO ACCEPT DEFEAT IN AFGHANISTAN

South Asia diplomacy: It stretches credulity that Pakistan’s military and intelligence establishments were in the dark about the US-Canadian couple held hostage (apparently by Islamist militants) for five long years before being freed on October 11 by the Pakistani military, ostensibly acting on a tip-off from US intelligence, MK Bhadrakumar writes. CIA Director Mike Pompeo has, perhaps inadvertently, put a big hole through the Pakistani version of events by disclosing that the hostages were kept all along in Pakistan rather than Afghanistan. At the very least, there is much more to the rescue act by the Pakistani military than meets the eye. Political machinations are afoot in the episode, which is obvious from the fact that US President Donald Trump himself lauded the Pakistani military. However, the Americans, typically, are not pressing the point or asking uncomfortable questions and instead prefer to move on.   READ THE STORY HERE

The U.S. pressed Pakistan for the elimination of havens for militants within its territory, according to American and Pakistani officials, in a meeting Tuesday between Pakistani leadership and the visiting U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. - Wall Street Journal

The U.S. will ​address​ terrorist ​threats in Pakistan on its own if the country doesn’t cooperate with American requests to do so, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson ​indicated​ on Thursday after meetings with officials in Islamabad who bristled over that approach. - Wall Street Journal

As Secretary of State Rex Tillerson cut a sharp swath through the region this week — doubling down on charges that Pakistan is sheltering militants, warmly embracing its archrival India and sympathizing with officials in war-torn Afghanistan — some Pakistani officials have reacted with outrage and anger. But Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi seems to be taking a longer, cooler view. - Washington Post

Saudi Arabia changes or perishes. @elalusa Report w/Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres. Simon Henderson @washinstitute

King Salman has two other titles as well: "Custodian of the Two Holy Places" and prime minister. This broadens the range of possibilities for transferring responsibilities to MbS. The scenarios could unfold as follows:

Salman abdicates and MbS becomes king. "Abdication" is probably not a favored option in the kingdom. It was last used in 1964 when the spendthrift King Saud was forced to give up after six years of tension with his half-brother Faisal, who replaced him. More recently, in 2013, Emir Hamad al-Thani of Qatar abdicated in favor of his son Tamim but retains much influence, along with the official title of "Father Emir." Given Riyadh's current bad blood with Qatar, the chances of Salman emulating the "Father King" model are likely zero, but a different slice of history could make full abdication more acceptable.

In 1902, Ibn Saud (only twenty-two at the time) led a group of fighters from exile to recapture his family's ancestral village of Dariyah in central Arabia. In response, his father Abdulrahman ceded leadership of the House of Saud to him. Today, King Salman is said to see Ibn Saud's character in his son, and the Wall Street Journal reports that he has already made a video announcing that MbS will be king.

Salman gives up the throne but remains Custodian. Since Ibn Saud captured the holy cities of Mecca and Medina in 1925, successive rulers have taken responsibility for the Islamic shrines. King Fahd formalized this role in 1986, changing his title from "majesty" to "Custodian of the Two Holy Places." Retaining the religious title but relinquishing political leadership would be consistent with the sense that the former is more important -- a key ingredient in Saudi Arabia's claim to leadership of the wider Arab and Muslim worlds.

Salman appoints MbS prime minister. At present, the king is prime minister and the crown prince is deputy prime minister. Yet the weekly meetings of the Council of Ministers, which are chaired by the prime minister, are not the country's most crucial decisionmaking forums. That honor goes to the Council of Political and Security Affairs and the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, two bodies that were created in 2015 and are now chaired by MbS. Administratively, naming MbS as prime minister would arguably be tidier than the current arrangement. But this may be a delicate issue: Faisal and King Saud engaged in a long tug-of-war over bureaucratic control before the former's accession, so Salman would have to be truly willing to give up the job if this division of labor is to work today.

MbS becomes regent. When Salman travels abroad, as he did to Moscow earlier this month, he "deputizes" MbS "to administer the state's affairs and take care of the interests of the people during his absence," according to the Saudi Press Agency. A version of this option -- regency -- is available in circumstances of illness or lengthy medical treatment abroad. Yet a protracted regency could be contentious. After King Fahd suffered a debilitating stroke in late 1995, Crown Prince Abdullah was appointed regent, but he held the title for only a few weeks -- apparently because Fahd's powerful full brothers (Sultan, Nayef, and Salman) were anxious to deny Abdullah complete authority. Despite the king's poor physical condition thereafter, Abdullah did not assume full formal power until his own accession in 2005.
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Salman dies. As crown prince, MbS would become king provided his leadership is acknowledged by senior members of the House of Saud, who must give him the oath of allegiance. Yet reported schisms in the royal family could lead some figures to contest his new authority. When Salman made MbS crown prince four months ago, three of the thirty-four princes on the A...

•http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/u.s.-priorities-in-the-kirkuk-standoff
•http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/the-kurdish-challenge-to-u.s.-strategy-in-iraq
•http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/how-to-keep-armed-clashes-in-kirkuk-from-escalating
•https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/kurdish-dreams-of-independence-delayed-again

Kurdish Peshmerga forces have retreated to positions they held in northern Iraq in June 2014 in response to an Iraqi army advance into the region after a Kurdish independence referendum, a senior Iraqi commander said on Wednesday. - Reuters

Tantalizing bits of news began to stream into the social media feeds of Kurdish news organizations late Wednesday: Kurds angry with an Iraqi military takeover of their towns and cities were rising up and chasing the troops away. - Washington Post
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The Kurdish independence vote championed by their leader Masoud Barzani was a gamble that may have made his quest for a homeland more elusive than ever. - Reuters

Iraq's Ulama and Arab Clerics on the Kurdish Referendum
By  Alex Grinberg 
The reactions of Iraq’s ulama and some Arab clerics to the recent Kurdish referendum have been mostly negative, a clear reflection of their political sympathies. However--aside from Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s speech--the reactions have been nuanced. This has allowed for more fine-tuned gauging of political tendencies among the various religious communities of Iraq and the neighboring countries. Shi’i Ulama Ayatollah Ali Sistani strongly criticized the referendum. Sist ...
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The Fall of Kirkuk: An IRGC Production
By  Jonathan Spyer 
Iraqi forces took Kirkuk city from the Kurds this week with hardly a shot fired. Twenty-two Kurdish fighters were killed in the sporadic and disorganized resistance, while seven Iraqi soldiers also lost their lives. It is a remarkable setback for the Kurds, who just a few weeks ago held an independence referendum. The loss of Kirkuk especially, given the city’s vast oil resources, lessens the likelihood that an independent state will emerge from the Kurdish Regional Government area in northe ...
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Iran's Hand and Iraq's Kirkuk Offensive
By  Seth J. Frantzman 
With ISIS out of the way, underlying tensions have come to the surface. On Sunday October 15, the Pentagon encouraged Iraqi Security Forces and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Peshmerga to “avoid escalatory actions,” as Iraq gave the Kurds an ultimatum to withdraw from areas around the city of Kirkuk. The United States said it opposed “violence from any party,” and that any action could risk destabilizing Iraq and distracting from the war on Islamic State. The Pentagon st ...
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