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GLOBAL strike MEDIA
u.s. central command
centcom & The long war

AL-SISI WILL NOT SEEK 3RD TERM; RENEWING THE AMERICAN EGYPTIAN ALLIANCE

10/31/2017

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HUDSON
Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will not seek a third term in office, he said in an interview with CNBC, adding that he does not intend to change the constitution and its provision of a two-term presidential limit. - Reuters
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TODAY'S PROPAGANDA OF THE BALFOUR DECLARATION

10/31/2017

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NYPOST
  • Harvard's Ruth Wisse and author Rick Richman on the Balfour Declaration
MIDDLE EAST FORUM:  BOTH TURKEY & ARABS WELCOMED BALFOUR DECLARATION
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BARZANI, KURDISH LEADER STEPS DOWN; & RUSSIAN, TURKISH GOALS IN SYRIA

10/31/2017

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Iraqi Kurdistan leader resigns
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The president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Massoud Barzani, announced Sunday that he is resigning effective Nov. 1 in the latest fallout from last month’s controversial independence referendum. In a televised address, Barzani said he would distribute his powers between Iraqi Kurdistan's parliament, prime minister and judiciary system. Armed supporters stormed meetings of parliament over the weekend and attacked lawmakers from opposition parties.
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Barzani’s term was set to end Wednesday and he had previously said he would step down after serving since 2005. He has been under fire since Iraqi forces allied with Iran-backed Shiite militias seized back the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and other disputed areas of northern Iraq earlier this month. Barzani in turn has condemned the United States for failing to back the Kurds. His departure may help lead to a settlement between the KRG and Baghdad.
  • ISW updates on Turkish and Russianstrategy in Syria
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IRAQI SHIA DOMINATE KURDS AGAIN & U.S. MUST FACE A RECKONING IN IRAQ, SYRIA

10/27/2017

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Iraqi forces backed by Iranian-allied militias began an assault Thursday to reclaim more Kurdish-held territory in Iraq, advancing toward a crossing in the country’s western border region that provides the only access for U.S. military operations in northern Syria. - Washington Post


The Kurdish referendum in Iraq has failed spectacularly, despite predictions of beckoning independence. Many who relied on the trope that “statehood was not a matter of if but when” were shocked and unprepared for the referendum’s outcomes. - War on the Rocks


After [Iraq’s Sunni Arab’s] were ousted from government jobs and from the military by the post-Saddam Hussein government, their powerlessness and rage gave rise to Sunni militant movements like Al Qaeda in Iraq and the Islamic State. Now that those militants are being driven from the Sunni heartland, how the government responds to Sunnis trying to rebuild their lives is likely to have long-term consequences for the country’s stability and security. - New York Times

AEI:  U.S. FACES RECKONING IN SYRIA
Washington Still Doesn’t Understand Iraq 
By Robert Ford, The Atlantic: “The U.S. dream of a democratic and federal Iraq is over. Appointing Iran the next boogeyman won’t help.”
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SAUDI CROWN PRINCE CHOOSES "RED MED" AS JUNCTURE FOR MEGA CITY

10/26/2017

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ASHARQ AL-AWSAT
THE RED MED eBOOK
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THE SAUDI IPO IS COLLAPSING
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THE KURDS GET SQUEEZED AS U.S. SEEKS TO REFORM BAGHDAD ALLIED TO IRAN

10/26/2017

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Iraqi Kurds offered to shelve their pursuit of statehood for now as pressure mounts on the leader of the country’s semi-autonomous region to step aside and the U.S. seeks to ease tension between two vital allies in the fight against Islamic State. - Wall Street Journal

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi insisted on Thursday that the Kurdish independence referendum be declared void, in an apparent rejection of an offer by the Kurdistan region to “freeze” its push for independence as part of efforts to resolve the crisis through talks. - Reuters

Earlier this month, the Iraqi army freed the city of Hawija from control by the Islamic State, leading 1,000 militants, who had operated a regime of comprehensive violence in the city, to surrender to Kurdish authorities. Mr. Nordland was able to interview some of the men in detention — an experience he described on Facebook Live on Oct. 24. - New York Times

Iraqi troops and popular mobilization forces began shelling Peshmerga positions from Zummar in northern Nineveh province, the Kurdistan Region Security Council (KRSC) said on Thursday. - Reuters

Iran opened a border crossing with the Kurdistan region of Iraq Wednesday after having closed it following last month’s vote in favor of independence in the Kurdish area, Iranian state media reported. - Reuters
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A vital force that helped defeat the Islamic State group, or a dangerous tool of Iran? Fighters from Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi are a controversial irregular element battling on the country's frontlines.  - Agence-France Presse
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MCMASTER ON AMERICAN ENEMIES ABROAD & AN EMERGING IRANIAN HIT JOB ON ISRAEL:  THE PAST IS PROLOGUE

10/25/2017

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JPost's Anna Ahronheim on Hezbollah's new Golan commander
H.R. McMaster on Iran, Iraq, Syria and the Kurdish Issue 
By SWJ Editors, Small Wars Journal: “McMaster spoke this week with Alhurra, a U.S.-funded Arabic-language news network, discussing recent developments in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Qatar.”
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SAUDI CROWN PRINCE ON MODERATE ISLAM, YEMENI EXIT FROM UNENDING WAR & REFORMING ISLAM

10/25/2017

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AL JAZEERA
REFORMING ISLAM
COUNTERING VIOLENT HADITHS
NEW SAUDI GOVERNING BODY ON REFORMING ISLAM
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PAKISTANI LEADERSHIP, GUILE & STRATEGIC INTERESTS

10/25/2017

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PAKISTAN ASKS U.S. TO ACCEPT DEFEAT IN AFGHANISTAN
South Asia diplomacy: It stretches credulity that Pakistan’s military and intelligence establishments were in the dark about the US-Canadian couple held hostage (apparently by Islamist militants) for five long years before being freed on October 11 by the Pakistani military, ostensibly acting on a tip-off from US intelligence, MK Bhadrakumar writes. CIA Director Mike Pompeo has, perhaps inadvertently, put a big hole through the Pakistani version of events by disclosing that the hostages were kept all along in Pakistan rather than Afghanistan. At the very least, there is much more to the rescue act by the Pakistani military than meets the eye. Political machinations are afoot in the episode, which is obvious from the fact that US President Donald Trump himself lauded the Pakistani military. However, the Americans, typically, are not pressing the point or asking uncomfortable questions and instead prefer to move on.   READ THE STORY HERE
The U.S. pressed Pakistan for the elimination of havens for militants within its territory, according to American and Pakistani officials, in a meeting Tuesday between Pakistani leadership and the visiting U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. - Wall Street Journal
The U.S. will ​address​ terrorist ​threats in Pakistan on its own if the country doesn’t cooperate with American requests to do so, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson ​indicated​ on Thursday after meetings with officials in Islamabad who bristled over that approach. - Wall Street Journal

As Secretary of State Rex Tillerson cut a sharp swath through the region this week — doubling down on charges that Pakistan is sheltering militants, warmly embracing its archrival India and sympathizing with officials in war-torn Afghanistan — some Pakistani officials have reacted with outrage and anger. But Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi seems to be taking a longer, cooler view. - Washington Post
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STEVE BANNON & DR. DAVID PETRAEUS:  COUNTERING ISLAMIC EXTREMISM, HUDSON INSTITUTE

10/24/2017

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HUDSON INSTITUTE
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HOW IRAKI KURDISTAN MOVES FORWARD AFTER FAILED INDEPENDENCE VOTE & BAGHDAD'S SHIA INCURSION

10/24/2017

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THE CIPHER BRIEF
THE MIDDLE EAST FORUM
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THE SAUDI'S & THE REFORM OF VISION 2030

10/24/2017

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GLOBAL RISK INSIGHTS I
GLOBAL RISKS INSIGHTS II
Saudi Arabia’s powerful crown prince vowed on Tuesday to return his country to a more tolerant form of Islam as he pledged to build a futuristic city that would push the country into the 21st century. - Wall Street Journal
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ABBAS MILANI ON IRANIAN REGIONAL AMBITION

10/24/2017

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MIDDLE EAST ONLINE
IRAN, HAMAS & THE DESTRUCTION OF ISRAEL
HOW RUSSIAN & IRAN OUTFLANK THE U.S. IN IRAK
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INDIA & A PROBLEM CALLED KASHMIR

10/21/2017

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THE MERCENARY MOVEMENT IS NOT A FREEDOM STRUGGLE
WIRED:  HISTORY OF DISPUTED AREA
THE INDIAN EXPRESS
JAMMU & KASHMIR:  SECURITY HEADACHE
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THE TEMPLARS & THE FALL OF CATHOLIC UNITY UNDER THE REFORMATION

10/21/2017

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OBAMA'S BURMA FAILURE IS NOW TRUMP'S

10/21/2017

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AL-QAEDA AMBUSH IN NIGER:  WHAT HAPPENED

10/21/2017

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THE HOUSE OF SAUD PERISHES OR CHANGES

10/21/2017

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Saudi Arabia changes or perishes. @elalusa Report w/Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres. Simon Henderson @washinstitute

King Salman has two other titles as well: "Custodian of the Two Holy Places" and prime minister. This broadens the range of possibilities for transferring responsibilities to MbS. The scenarios could unfold as follows:

Salman abdicates and MbS becomes king. "Abdication" is probably not a favored option in the kingdom. It was last used in 1964 when the spendthrift King Saud was forced to give up after six years of tension with his half-brother Faisal, who replaced him. More recently, in 2013, Emir Hamad al-Thani of Qatar abdicated in favor of his son Tamim but retains much influence, along with the official title of "Father Emir." Given Riyadh's current bad blood with Qatar, the chances of Salman emulating the "Father King" model are likely zero, but a different slice of history could make full abdication more acceptable.

In 1902, Ibn Saud (only twenty-two at the time) led a group of fighters from exile to recapture his family's ancestral village of Dariyah in central Arabia. In response, his father Abdulrahman ceded leadership of the House of Saud to him. Today, King Salman is said to see Ibn Saud's character in his son, and the Wall Street Journal reports that he has already made a video announcing that MbS will be king.

Salman gives up the throne but remains Custodian. Since Ibn Saud captured the holy cities of Mecca and Medina in 1925, successive rulers have taken responsibility for the Islamic shrines. King Fahd formalized this role in 1986, changing his title from "majesty" to "Custodian of the Two Holy Places." Retaining the religious title but relinquishing political leadership would be consistent with the sense that the former is more important -- a key ingredient in Saudi Arabia's claim to leadership of the wider Arab and Muslim worlds.

Salman appoints MbS prime minister. At present, the king is prime minister and the crown prince is deputy prime minister. Yet the weekly meetings of the Council of Ministers, which are chaired by the prime minister, are not the country's most crucial decisionmaking forums. That honor goes to the Council of Political and Security Affairs and the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, two bodies that were created in 2015 and are now chaired by MbS. Administratively, naming MbS as prime minister would arguably be tidier than the current arrangement. But this may be a delicate issue: Faisal and King Saud engaged in a long tug-of-war over bureaucratic control before the former's accession, so Salman would have to be truly willing to give up the job if this division of labor is to work today.

MbS becomes regent. When Salman travels abroad, as he did to Moscow earlier this month, he "deputizes" MbS "to administer the state's affairs and take care of the interests of the people during his absence," according to the Saudi Press Agency. A version of this option -- regency -- is available in circumstances of illness or lengthy medical treatment abroad. Yet a protracted regency could be contentious. After King Fahd suffered a debilitating stroke in late 1995, Crown Prince Abdullah was appointed regent, but he held the title for only a few weeks -- apparently because Fahd's powerful full brothers (Sultan, Nayef, and Salman) were anxious to deny Abdullah complete authority. Despite the king's poor physical condition thereafter, Abdullah did not assume full formal power until his own accession in 2005.
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Salman dies. As crown prince, MbS would become king provided his leadership is acknowledged by senior members of the House of Saud, who must give him the oath of allegiance. Yet reported schisms in the royal family could lead some figures to contest his new authority. When Salman made MbS crown prince four months ago, three of the thirty-four princes on the A...
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IRANIAN PROXIES IN SYRIA, ENVELOPING ISRAEL:  ANOTHER MEANINGLESS ARMISTICE

10/21/2017

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•http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/u.s.-priorities-in-the-kirkuk-standoff
•http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/the-kurdish-challenge-to-u.s.-strategy-in-iraq
•http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/how-to-keep-armed-clashes-in-kirkuk-from-escalating
•https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/kurdish-dreams-of-independence-delayed-again
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"THE CITADEL" IN PAKISTAN CRIMINALIZES SHARIF WHILE TALIBAN MOVE TO CONSOLIDATE

10/21/2017

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At least 43 Afghan soldiers were killed in a Taliban attack on an army base in southern Afghanistan on Thursday, officials said, as the resurgent militant group stepped up its assaults on the country’s beleaguered security forces. - Wall Street Journal

Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif was indicted Thursday over allegations of corruption, the latest setback for the deposed leader who remains one of the most popular politicians in Pakistan. - Washington Post

The leader of a Pakistani militant group whose suicide bombings killed more than 250 people died on Thursday of injuries from a U.S. drone strike in Afghanistan, a spokesman for the militants said. - Reuters

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KURDS RETREAT:  WAIT & SEE ATTITUDE; BAGHDAD GIVES IMAGE OF GOVERNING IRAQI KURDISTAN

10/21/2017

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Kurdish Peshmerga forces have retreated to positions they held in northern Iraq in June 2014 in response to an Iraqi army advance into the region after a Kurdish independence referendum, a senior Iraqi commander said on Wednesday. - Reuters

Tantalizing bits of news began to stream into the social media feeds of Kurdish news organizations late Wednesday: Kurds angry with an Iraqi military takeover of their towns and cities were rising up and chasing the troops away. - Washington Post
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The Kurdish independence vote championed by their leader Masoud Barzani was a gamble that may have made his quest for a homeland more elusive than ever. - Reuters
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U.S. GETS KILL SHOT AGAIN IN AFGHANISTAN AGAINST AL-QAEDA LEADERSHIP & THE IRANIANS PUSH FORWARD REGARDLESS OF CONSEQUENCES

10/21/2017

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US kills influential al Qaeda-linked Pakistani Taliban leader in Afghanistan
Omar Khalid al Khurasani was closely allied with al Qaeda and its emir, Ayman al Zawahiri. In the past Khurasani has called for the imposition of sharia law, the establishment of a global caliphate, and the seizure of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. He was killed in a drone strike in Paktia province.
Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said on Thursday its ballistic missile programme would accelerate despite U.S. and European Union pressure to suspend it, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported. - Reuters
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Iran’s military chief met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Thursday during a visit to Damascus to set out a joint military strategy, Syria’s state news agency reported, a sign of deepening Iranian influence that has alarmed Israel. - Reuters
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TURKEY BEHAVES LIKE AN ENEMY

10/21/2017

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MIDDLE EAST FORUM
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THE IRAQI POLITICAL ORDER UNRAVELING FAST

10/20/2017

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WHAT IS U.S. POLICY IN KURDISTAN
THE FALL OF KIRKUK, MADE IN IRAN:  MIDDLE EAST FORUM
KIRKUK WAS NOT AN IRANIAN DEFEAT FOR AMERICA

THE CIPHER BRIEF
Michael Knights believes ethnic and sectarian reconciliation are "emerging as a motif in Iraq’s next general elections," and as a result the U.S. should work diplomatically to keep the country unified.
  • "Modern Iraqi governments have used two methods to hold the country together: buy the cooperation of the diverse population...and use military force and intelligence services (paid for by petrodollars) to coerce those who still resist."

  • "The last remaining alternative is the exact vision that the United States sought to impose on Iraq in 2003: that of a representative democracy that would incentivize membership for all of Iraq’s components."
Read Knights' article.

Michael Knights has worked in every Iraqi province and most of the hundred districts. He's currently the Lafer Fellow at the Washington Institute.

COMMENTARY FROM ISRAEL'S RUBIN CENTER
Iraq's Ulama and Arab Clerics on the Kurdish Referendum
By  Alex Grinberg 
The reactions of Iraq’s ulama and some Arab clerics to the recent Kurdish referendum have been mostly negative, a clear reflection of their political sympathies. However--aside from Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s speech--the reactions have been nuanced. This has allowed for more fine-tuned gauging of political tendencies among the various religious communities of Iraq and the neighboring countries. Shi’i Ulama Ayatollah Ali Sistani strongly criticized the referendum. Sist ...
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE

The Fall of Kirkuk: An IRGC Production
By  Jonathan Spyer 
Iraqi forces took Kirkuk city from the Kurds this week with hardly a shot fired. Twenty-two Kurdish fighters were killed in the sporadic and disorganized resistance, while seven Iraqi soldiers also lost their lives. It is a remarkable setback for the Kurds, who just a few weeks ago held an independence referendum. The loss of Kirkuk especially, given the city’s vast oil resources, lessens the likelihood that an independent state will emerge from the Kurdish Regional Government area in northe ...
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Iran's Hand and Iraq's Kirkuk Offensive
By  Seth J. Frantzman 
With ISIS out of the way, underlying tensions have come to the surface. On Sunday October 15, the Pentagon encouraged Iraqi Security Forces and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Peshmerga to “avoid escalatory actions,” as Iraq gave the Kurds an ultimatum to withdraw from areas around the city of Kirkuk. The United States said it opposed “violence from any party,” and that any action could risk destabilizing Iraq and distracting from the war on Islamic State. The Pentagon st ...
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE

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YEMENI ENCIRCLEMENT OF SAUDI ARABIA, THE EXPLODING AFRICAN HORN & LIBYA:  AEI'S CRITICAL THREAT PROJECT

10/19/2017

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The latest Threat Update slide deck is available here.

Below are the top three 
takeaways from the week:
  1. Al Shabaab demonstrated improved improvised explosive device capabilities with a massive bombing in Mogadishu on October 14. The attack killed over 300 people and wounded over 400 others, making it the highest-casualty attack since the al Qaeda affiliate’s inception. The attack is part of al Shabaab’s campaign to destabilize the Somali Federal Government. Hundreds of Somalis demonstrated against al Shabaab following the attack, which the group has not yet claimed. [See CTP’s latest map of al Shabaab’s area of operations in Somalia for October 2017.]
  2. Southern Yemeni actors are pursuing independence. An Emirati-backed southern Yemeni political council formed a national assembly to represent southern Yemen. The body’s formation is a major blow against the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which has been unable to hold a session of parliament since 2015. The council also intends to hold an independence referendum for southern Yemen.  The fragmentation of the Yemeni state undermines U.S. policy, which seeks a unified Yemen to limit Iranian regional influence and counter al Qaeda in the Arabia Peninsula. [Read more in “Warning Update: Fracturing of the Yemeni state.”]
  3. A would-be strongman is advancing toward Libya’s capital as the UN-led peace process stalls. Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, whose militia force dominates eastern Libya, is gaining influence in the northwest. Haftar’s advance coincides with the potential breakdown of UN-led talks, which stalled over a provision seen as intended to limit Haftar’s power. [Read about the implications of Haftar’s rise in “The General’s Trap in Libya.” CTP will release a recommended U.S. strategy for Libya in early November.]
CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network. The al Qaeda network update includes detailed assessments of al Qaeda’s affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel. CTP’s Iran team follows developments on the internal politics, nuclear negotiations, and regional conflicts closely.
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