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centcom & The long war

HOW THAT DOG BAGHDADI DIED; US HITS HIS REPLACEMENT TOO & PAKISTAN RETURNS THE DON'S CALLS

10/29/2019

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How Could the Turks Not Know Where Baghdadi Was Hiding? by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
November 3, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59727/did-turkey-know-where-baghdadi-was-hiding
The Battle of Baghdadi
Clifford D. May — The Washington Times
​The elimination of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a battle won. But it is not, by any stretch of the imagination, the end of the “endless war.” Islamism, in all its fury and diversity, goes marching on. Five years ago, Mr. Baghdadi was proclaimed (by his followers) the caliph — successor to the Prophet Mohammed. Even Osama bin Laden was never so audacious. The Islamic State in Iraq, a splinter from al Qaeda, had been organized in 2006.  Read More
Afghanistan on the Edge? Elections, Elites, and Ethnic Tensions by Andrew Watkins

AI and Irregular Warfare: An Evolution, Not a Revolution
Edit by Daniel Egel, Eric Robinson, Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Charles T. Cleveland, and Christopher (CJ) Oates
U.S. Deterrence in the Middle East is Collapsing
John Hannah — Foreign Policy
As welcome as was the U.S. raid that lead to the death of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi over the weekend, it can’t erase the damage done to U.S. interests in the Middle East over the past few months. Whatever explanations U.S. President Donald Trump and his supporters put forward to justify his impulsive decision to withdraw U.S. forces from northeastern Syria earlier this month, the searing images that followed told a far different tale. Read More
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Syria: United States Seeks Strengthen Coalition Against ISIS.  The United States on Monday said they want to increase the presence of coalition forces combating the Islamic State in northeastern Syria.  “There was never an idea that we would abandon the mission of going after ISIS ... This is a major effort that is continuing,” a senior State Department official said.  The announcement comes following a U.S. operation which killed ISIS leader al-Baghdadi over the weekend and amid the Turkish incursion into the region.  The United States will convene a meeting with coalition leaders on November 14. Reuters
American commando raid to kill al-Baghdadi was launched from al-Asad airbase, rehearsals conducted in Erbil
(Military Times) The American commando raid that bagged Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was launched from the sprawling al-Asad airbase in Anbar province Iraq, according to a source on the ground with direct knowledge of the operation.
 
Kurdish informant provided key intel in operation that killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
(NBC News) Kurdish-led forces allied with the United States provided information — including used underwear for a DNA analysis — that was key to the operation that killed the Islamic State group's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Kurdish forces in Syria said Monday.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/10/abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-killed-himself-during-raid-u-s-says.ph
US Afghanistan peace envoy takes efforts to Pakistan
(The Associated Press) A U.S. peace envoy remained in Pakistan on Tuesday as part of efforts to find a negotiated end to Afghanistan’s 18 -year war, even though President Donald Trump has not expressed any interest in resuming talks with the Taliban.
 
  Al-Baghdadi’s ‘number one replacement’ is dead, Trump says
(Military Times) U.S. troops have successfully taken down the top replacement for Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, according to President Donald Trump.
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BIBI & GANTZ:  THE ISRAELI SLOG; SAUDI LED COALITION HEATS UP IN YEMEN, WHY IS GERMANY IN LIBYA

10/27/2019

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​Egypt escalates campaign against Turkey's Erdogan
Egypt is working to mobilize Arab states and the United Nations against Turkey's president over his foreign policies and criticism of the Egyptian government.
Netanyahu and Gantz Need to Learn the Hebrew Word "Mamlachtiut"
By Dr. Asaf Romirowsky, October 28, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Israeli notion of mamlachtiut does not translate well into English. Coming from the word mamlacha, or kingdom, the word suggests the quality of acting in a sovereign-like fashion. David Ben-Gurion used the term when he spoke of the Jews’ usage of military power while exercising caution with their political power. In Israeli history books, the term is conjured every time the nation faces a major juncture that requires individuals and factions to transcend partisan loyalties. Judging from their behavior in the recent elections, Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz both appear to be fuzzy on the meaning of the word.
Continue to full article ->
Arab coalition in Yemen repositioned under Saudi command 
The Saudi-led coalition said Sunday its forces have repositioned in Yemen’s southern city of Aden to come under the command of Saudi Arabia. The redeployment comes as part of the coalition’s efforts to coordinate military and security operations. The move follows a power-sharing deal struck over the weekend between Yemen’s internationally recognized government and southern separatists backed by the United Arab Emirates.
Read More  
arabnews.com
German foreign minister heads to Cairo after stop in Libya 
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas is scheduled to meet today with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo. Maas’ visit to Cairo follows a brief stop Sunday in Libya, where Maas met with the head of the internationally recognized government, Fayez al-Sarraj. The two discussed Germany’s offer to host an international conference on the Libyan conflict. Eastern military commander Khalifa Hifter has been leading an offensive against the government in Tripoli since April.
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english.ahram.org.eg
Russia, Egypt kick off first air defense drills 
Russia and Egypt launched their first air defense drills at the Egyptian air defense troops’ tactical training center on Saturday. The Russian Defense Ministry said the goal of the exercises is to share experience between the Russian and Egyptian military and ensure airspace security. The exercises will take place through Nov. 7 in Egypt with more than 100 Russian anti-aircraft gunners participating.
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tass.com
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SHARIF:  RAGE AGAINST THE PAKISTANI MACHINE

10/27/2019

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HOW SHARIF IS WINNING PAKISTAN'S DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT
THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN
ASIA TIMES
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RUSSIA MOVES INTO NORTH AFRICA:  ALGERIA GOES TO MOSCOW WHILE THE HOUSE OF SAUD TRIES TO CONSOLIDATE IN YEMEN

10/25/2019

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Putin's Policies Are Not New
By Emil Avdaliani, October 30, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: It has become fashionable to link Russian foreign policy moves of the past 20 years solely to President Vladimir Putin and his close associates. But what is viewed as innovative is in fact an intensification of much older policies that long preceded Putin’s rise to power.
Continue to full articl
PAUL STAROBIN
Putin’s Middle East?
Exploring the implications of Russia’s increasing engagement in the region—and the American drawdown.
Clarity Amidst Chaos: The Implications of Trump's Syria Policy
By Dr. Alex Joffe, October 27, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The American withdrawal from Syria has produced chaotic results – but as with many aspects of President Trump’s presidency, it offers an opportunity to view realities with a new clarity. The nature of Turkey under Erdoğan, European weakness, and the unwillingness of America to support indecisive military missions have been revealed. These realities demand new approaches to European defense and to Middle Eastern engagement and disengagement.
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Algeria judges go on strike ahead of presidential elections 
Algeria’s judges and prosecutors began an open-ended strike on Sunday demanding the independence of the judiciary after a major reshuffle that affected thousands. The Ministry of Justice carried out the changes earlier this month, in a move described by the National Magistrates' Syndicate as “a stranglehold by the executive over the power of the judiciary.” Meanwhile, protesters took to the streets Friday for the 36th week in a row to demand that Dec. 12 presidential elections be delayed until more of the ruling elite step down following President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's resignation in April.
Read More  
middleeasteye.net
Russia and Algeria discuss cooperation 
Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Algeria’s interim President Abdelkader Bensalah on Thursday on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa economic summit in Sochi. The two leaders discussed bilateral relations and ways to boost cooperation in the technical and military fields. The first-ever economic summit aims to boost economic relations and joint projects between Russia and African countries. Algeria is one of Russia’s leading partners on the African continent and signed a $7.5 billion arms deal with Moscow in 2006.
Read More  
tass.com
  • Saudi Arabia is pursuing a limited cease-fire with the al Houthi movement to secure its southern border. The al Houthis have long sought to pressure Saudi Arabia to accept a cease-fire. Iran is attempting to leverage the Yemen cease-fire talks to advance its effort to split the Gulf States from the US and consolidate the influence of its al Houthi partners in Yemen.Check out detailed analysis in the Yemen File on:
    • Saudi-al Houthi Relations
    • The Conflict in Southern Yemen
Turkey's Invasion of Syrian Kurdistan as Seen from Tehran
By Dr. Doron Itzchakov, October 25, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Though it prompted angry reactions from senior officials in Tehran, the Turkish attack on Syrian Kurdistan offers both pros and cons for the Islamic Republic – and the potential positives likely outweigh the negatives.
Continue to full article ->
Turkey's Nuisance Value
By Burak Bekdil, October 25, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkey’s value for the West is not about the good it can offer but the evil it might choose not to spread. In recent years western tolerance of Turkey has stemmed not from appreciation of its advanced democratic culture but from fears of the chaos it can unleash.
Continue to full article -
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PUTIN CONQUERED THE MIDDLE EAST, HERE'S HOW THE AMERICAN'S GET IT BACK

10/23/2019

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U.S., TURKEY:
Our Untenable Alliance with Turkey
By Victor Davis Hanson, National Review: "There are about 5,000 members of the U.S. military, mostly airmen, stationed at the huge, strategically located air base in Incirlik, Turkey, northwest of the Syrian border."
The Kurds are not angels
​But among the many Muslim nations, America has had no better friend.
Putin conquered the Middle East. The US can get it back.
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
Seven Pillars: What Really Causes Instability in the Middle East?'
Michael Rubin and Brian Katulis | AEI Press
​Putin is the New King of Syria by Jonathan Spyer
The Wall Street Journal
October 16, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59645/putin-is-the-new-king-of-syria
Tehran’s tyrants have been provoked
Trump’s Syria pullout, aiding Russia and Turkey, is when America stopped leading the world
​Since the end of WWII, every other president understood that U.S. power and wealth can only be sustained by assuming great responsibility.
Lost in the Furor Over Syria: Alliances are a Means, not an End 
by Doug Bandow and Christopher Preble
Trump’s Turkey problem
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ASSAD, OR WE BURN THE COUNTRY:  ISLAMIC AUTOCRACY IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

10/18/2019

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100 YEARS OF KURD FAILURE & HOW THE SUDANESE ARE FAILING THE ARAB SPRING

10/15/2019

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South Sudan’s fragile peace deal is faltering less than a month before the country’s president and armed opposition leader are meant to form a coalition government and begin the long recovery from a five-year civil war. […]The U.S. has said it will reevaluate its relationship with South Sudan if a new government isn’t formed next month. – Associated Press ​
Trump's Misguided Syria Policy
by Josef Joffe via The American Interest
History will judge Trump as harshly for his betrayal of the Kurds as it has the apostles of “peace in our time.”
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/10/islamic-state-sleeper-cells-target-raqqa.php
The Invisible Hand of Military Merger: Organisational Culture in Kurdistan
By Verena Gruber, Defence-In-Depth: "When it comes to unifying formerly hostile armed forces, the autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq (KRI) provides an outstanding example."
10 reasons why Trump is wrong to support Turkey
Michael Rubin | The National Interest
As Islamic State prisoners go free and hundreds of thousands of Kurds, Christians, and Yazidis flee Turkey’s bombardment, how true are the assumptions driving Trump’s turn toward Turkey?
Kurdish, Syrian, And Turkish Ironies
by Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
Critics now upset about abandoning our Kurdish friends demanded abject withdrawals — and the abandonment of friends — in Afghanistan and Iraq.
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THE SAUDI'S GO IT ALONE & AL-QAEDA DOMINATES THE SUBCONTINENT

10/15/2019

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 Going it alone: Saudi Arabia’s economic realities after attacks
Karen E. Young | Al-Monitor
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ETHIOPIA, EGYPT WAR OVER WATER & SUDAN FAILES FORMATION OF UNITY GOVERNMENT

10/13/2019

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South Sudan: Machar Seeks to Delay Unity Government.  South Sudan’s main opposition leader, Riek Machar, is calling for a six-month delay in the formation of a unity government following the failure of the government to push a peace deal through.  "It's not rocket science that the government in Juba lacks political will to implement the peace deal," Puok Both Buluang, Machar's spokesman, said.  Al Jazeera
US hosts Nile dam talks at Egypt’s behest 
The United States has invited the foreign ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan in an effort to mediate a feud over a giant Ethiopian hydropower dam over the Nile River. Washington is hosting the talks at the behest of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who asked President Donald Trump to help mediate the dispute during a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September. Egypt fears that the dam will further exacerbate its already dire water shortage woes and has asked the World Bank to help mediate among the parties. World Bank Group President David Malpass is expected to attend Wednesday’s talks if all three parties participate (Egypt and Ethiopia have already confirmed their attendance).
​
The meeting will be hosted by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin rather than the State Department, for reasons that remain unclear. The US mediation comes as Russia has been playing an increasingly active role in Africa, hosting its first-ever Russia-Africa summit in Sochi last week. In an Oct. 3 statement, the White House said it supported the negotiations between the three countries to reach a “cooperative, sustainable and mutually beneficial agreement.”
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WHY THE FALL OF MOSUL MATTERS

10/13/2019

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https://www.amazon.com/They-Will-Have-Die-Now-dp-B07Y5MTKZV/dp/B07Y5MTKZV/ref=mt_audio_download?_encoding=UTF8&me=&qid=
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the future of south asia revealed & IRAQI KURDISTAN REMAINS U.S. CENTERPIECE FOR MESOPOTAMIA

10/1/2019

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IMRAN KHAN IS A FAILURE
ORIENTALISM:  FAILURE FOR ARAB CIVILIZATION
Intra-Afghan dialogue belongs inside of Afghanistan, not Qatar, Russia, or China
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner
One stated reason to retreat from Afghanistan is the cost of continued operations: easily $30 billion per year. But encouraging a dialogue in Afghanistan would cost little to nothing.
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TNSR Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia by Myra MacDonald, Yelena Biberman, Michael Kugelman, Rohan Mukherjee, and Debak Das
The US Cannot Neglect Iraqi Kurdistan
by Seth Frantzman and Eric R. Mandel
The Hill
September 27, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59452/the-us-cannot-neglect-iraqi-kurdistan
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