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centcom & The long war

KATHERINE ZIMMERMAN:  THE POST COVID US POLICY FOR THE LONG WAR

10/26/2020

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The Pentagon’s recent effort to rebalance its resources against great-power competitors, such as China and Russia, places the commitment of US military resources to Africa in question. In a PRISM journal article, Katherine Zimmerman points out that while Africa may never be a top national security priority, a convergence of gains by state and non-state actors alike there affect US interests globally. Drawing down too far militarily in Africa risks losing influence on the continent to those very same state actors, erasing hard-fought counterterrorism gains, and compromising US global interests. Read the article here.
prism_9-1.pdf
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Fragility and failure: A better foreign policy to counter new threats
Katherine Zimmerman | October 2020
 
  • The US can no longer afford to prioritize counterterrorism at the cost of competing with global powers such as China and Russia.

  • Instead, the US must transform its approach to countering al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and other like-minded groups by focusing on the environment that enables both Salafi-jihadis and adversaries such as China and Russia to expand their influence.

  • Transforming the approach requires the US to improve how it operates in complex and fragile environments. The Global Fragility Act (GFA) is an opportunity to drive the necessary change throughout the interagency to succeed in these spaces. But its implementation has fallen short.

  • Senior administration officials should use the GFA to develop and implement a strategic-level approach that underscores conflict prevention, stabilization, and peace building. This means using foreign assistance effectively to advance American interests and contest territory that will otherwise fall to Salafi-jihadis or to Beijing or Moscow.
fragility-and-failure-a-better-foreign-policy-to-counter-new-threats.pdf
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No competition without presence: Should the US leave Africa?
The current US approach to terror is a recipe for forever war
the_current_us_approach_to_terror_is_a_recipe_for_forever_war_-_defense_one.pdf
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SUDAN MAKES PEACE, TURKEY USURPS LIBYA FOR ADVANTAGES BOTH DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN

10/25/2020

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PROSPECTS FOR REVOLUTIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST; THE ORIGINS OF PALESTINIAN REJECTIONISM & THE ISLAMIST FOUNDATION OF PAKISTAN'S POLITICAL ECONOMY

10/4/2020

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Pakistan is bracing for more protests as an alliance of opposition parties builds momentum for a nationwide series of rallies calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Imran Khan. – Bloomberg
Pakistan: Thousands Gather for Anti-Government Protests.  Tens of thousands of opposition supporters rallied in Karachi Sunday as part of a campaign to oust Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan, who they accuse of being installed by the military in a rigged 2018 election.  Al Jazeera Reuters ​
political_islam_is_declining_in_the_middle_east.pdf
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Hussein Ibish writes: The lesson for the Baghdad embassy, he tells me, is to look for an option between keeping the presence as it is and shutting it down altogether, both of which would be big mistakes. “But,” Silliman notes, “the first thing is to decide what the main purpose of the presence is, and then suit the infrastructure to fit the mission.” As with so much else about U.S. policy in the Middle East, the solution to this problem must start with Washington finally deciding what it wants to accomplish. – Bloomberg
Erdogan Declares War on Arabs  by Khaled Abu Toameh  
Alberto M. Fernandez writes: The Erdogan regime thinks it is being very clever, playing one power against another for its own benefit. But the overall result seems to be constant chaos and turmoil which an already burdened West is forced to manage and try to contain. Even if there was some benefit to the U.S. from Turkish aggression in the Caucasus – and such a benefit seems to be tiny if not invisible – it would seem that this long and growing list of Turkey’s regional actions hostile to the U.S. far outweighs any possible benefit from its latest misadventure. – Middle East Media Research Institute
Is Israel Victory Still Needed?
Yes, it offers the only path to end Palestinian rejectionism
by Daniel Pipes
Jerusalem Post
October 7, 2020

http://www.danielpipes.org/19847/is-israel-victory-still-needed
ISIS’ David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Frank Pabian: Looking for evidence of the construction of Iran’s new centrifuge assembly plant: New possible preparations identified
READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
September 2020 Map Update: Al Houthi “Balanced Deterrence” Campaign |
Jessica Kocan 
Why Palestinians Will Not Accept Advice from Arabs  by Khaled Abu Toameh 
Palestinians: What Failure Looks Like  by Khaled Abu Toameh  
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Pakistan’s Navy is racing to plug operational and technological gaps as part of an unprecedented modernization effort, according to the outgoing naval chief, but analysts are divided on whether the move will deter adversaries. – Defense News
Will They Or Won't They? Saudi Recognition of Israel Is the $64,000 Question
By Dr. James M. Dorsey
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Will the Saudis formalize relations with Israel or will they not? Odds are that Saudi Arabia is not about to formalize relations with Israel—but the kingdom, its image tarnished by multiple missteps, is seeking to ensure that it is not perceived as the odd man out as smaller Gulf states establish diplomatic relations with the Jewish state.

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Micah Levinson on Prospects for Revolutions in the Middle East  by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
September 30, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/61588/levinson-on-revolutions-in-middle-east
Beware Pakistan's Radical Barelvis by Sam Westrop
September 30, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/61589/beware-pakistan-barelvis
The Danger of Dawat-e-Islami  by J.M. Phelps
American Spectator
November 18, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/61785/the-danger-of-dawat-e-islami
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/09/jihadist-ideologues-argue-over-turkeys-erdogan.ph
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/09/generation-jihad-ep-27-counting-al-qaeda.php
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran’s planners assess that naval threats to Iran are increasing. Iran held a drill with the Russian and Chinese navies last year. Iran’s drones have harassed US ships. Now Iran’s missiles are in play as well, as it invests more heavily in military installations along the Gulf coast and adjacent to the Gulf of Oman. Iran has also drilled to attack a mock US aircraft carrier over the last several years. Iran has made mistakes though, sometimes firing on its own ships. – Jerusalem Post
Shirin Ebadi, Abbas Milani, and Hamid Moghadam write: In spite of its radical rhetoric and bravura, the Islamic regime has shown that it responds only to credible international pressure. It must be made to understand that with such egregious breaches of human rights, they have no place in the civilized community of nations. Suspending the regime from sports leagues and international legal organizations is the first step to delivering that powerful message. – The Hill
David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Frank Pabian write: This summer, Iran decided to construct a new underground centrifuge assembly plant, following the destruction of the above ground one at the Natanz enrichment site on July 2, 2020. […]Because of the added difficulties of building an underground site, the completion of a new centrifuge assembly plant able to assemble thousands of advanced centrifuges per year is unlikely in 2021. – Institute for Science and International Security
Andrew Greco writes: The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) continued to deploy to greater Idlib Province between April 1 and October 7, 2020, despite Turkey striking a de-escalation deal with Russia on March 5, 2020.[…]These new deployments have likely resulted in higher overall troop levels, even after Turkey withdrew “hundreds” of TSK and proxy forces on September 8 and continued to deploy Syrian fighters to Libya and Azerbaijan – Institute of the Study of War
Abdullah Al-Jabassini writes: To decrease the likelihood of a regime crackdown, local armed actors should collaborate to fill the security vacuum and end the current state of lawlessness.[…]Without a serious call for action and collaboration, southern Syria is doomed to be a battlefield on which the “sons of the land” are merely the pawns and the victims of internal and external actors. – Middle East Institute
Karagül further stressed that Turkey is spreading throughout the whole region the powerful political wave that started in Anatolia. Turkey’s geopolitical mind is now in South Caucasus, and united with Azerbaijan, it has formed a surprising power. – Middle East Media Research Institute
Nawzad A Shukri writes: A withdrawal of US troops would also almost certainly lead to the collapse of the Iraqi security forces, allowing Iranian-backed Shia militias to dominate the country. ISIS would re-emerge, and instability and ethnic-sectarian conflicts would spread across Iraq. More importantly, a US withdrawal would create political vacuums in Iraq that would almost certainly be filled by Iran and its allies. All these developments would undermine the US and its allies’ position and interests, and would significantly change the regional balance of power in favor of Iran. – Jerusalem Post ​
David Pollock writes: Nevertheless, for now, it seems doubtful that even this truly unusual combination of allies will enable Azerbaijan to recapture all of its disputed territory. […]The most likely scenario, however, is that Baku’s skill at keeping unlikely bedfellows together will continue to preserve its own core interests without altering the fundamental tensions at stake. Neither Israel nor Iran is poised to gain a decisive advantage from either one’s ties with Azerbaijan, which is just the way Baku wants it. – Washington Institute
George Barros writes: It is unclear whether Kyrgyz forces will participate in the Unbreakable Brotherhood given intensifying protests in Bishkek. A Kyrgyz withdrawal from the Unbreakable Brotherhood would likely grant the Kremlin greater opportunity to repurpose the exercises. – Institute for the Study of War
Dan Gouré writes: In addition to long-range, more accurate weapons, the U.S. military needs a revolution in long-range surveillance and targeting. This requires not just deploying more and better sensors but developing advanced data management and analytic capabilities with a heavy reliance on artificial intelligence. The combination of highly lethal fires at all ranges and near-real time precision targeting will change the way the joint force fights in the future. – The National Interest
Defund CENTCOM
(War on the Rocks) After decades of spending trillions of dollars on fruitless wars, Americans are getting frustrated with the Middle East.
WINEP’s Assaf Orion: Hezbollah’s secrets explode and are covered up again
A threat from within': Iraq and the rise of its militias
Putin loses his footing in Russia’s backyard
Derek Scissors writes: It is a cliché to say that getting our own house in order should always be the top priority, but it is also right. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is an economic predator, and stronger American responses, even closing certain sectors to China entirely, are overdue. These responses must be based on sound information, such as exactly how and where Chinese state ownership makes it impossible for Americans to compete. Not only is the US the world’s dominant economy, but it can be indefinitely. – American Enterprise Institute
​

Scott Livingston writes: China’s efforts to formalize CCP control of its commercial sector will have significant ramifications for international trade, forcing more liberal market economies to decide how much state intervention they are willing to tolerate in their trading partners. […]The fact that China has released this opinion at a time of heightened U.S. scrutiny over the government’s links to Huawei and TikTok suggests that China feels confident enough in its system that it is now prepared to advance and defend it on the global stage. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
From 9/11 to Khashoggi: The Saudi Islamist State Within a State (Part III of III)
By Irina Tsukerman, October 4, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Is there a connection between the peak of Islamist activity in Saudi Arabia and current events and controversies, including the unsolved death of former Saudi intelligence officer Jamal Khashoggi, who once assisted Turki Faisal? A growing body of evidence points toward links between some former Saudi government officials swept up in new corruption probes under Muhammad bin Salman and Islamist activity under the Crown Prince’s predecessors. Khashoggi was likely a key witness to all of it, and his knowledge may have doomed him.

Continue to full article ->
BESA CENTER PAGE FOR IRINA TSUKERMAN
HOW COVID DESTROYS SAUDI & GULF LED ECONOMIES
TURKEY'S REAL AIM IS EGYPT
Taliban assaults Helmand capital as U.S. officials plead for a ‘reduction in violence’
U.S. officials continue to maintain that the Taliban committed to a "reduction in violence" as part of the withdrawal agreement. The deal says no such thing, and the Taliban continues to mount attacks.
Sam Westrop on the "Sinister" Mission of Islamic Relief by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
October 14, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/61650/westrop-on-the-sinister-mission-of-islamic-relief
Will Russia recruit Syrian Kurds to fight in Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict?
 While Russia will likely avoid direct involvement in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, there are signs it could draw lessons from Libya and recruit fighters from Syria to do its bidding.
Cairo pushes for military agreements in Libya
 Following talks in the Egyptian city of Hurghada, Egypt is supporting Libya’s warring sides as they discuss how to dismantle the militias and unify Libya’s military institutions.
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