IRAN IS GOING NUCLEAR; SUDAN & TUNISIA ERUPT AGAIN & TURKEY LOSES D.C.

Turkey Threatens New Military Offensive in Northern Syria

New Issue Of Hoover Digest Online

No end in sight for civilian-military crisis in Sudan
The head of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, called for the dissolution of the government, further escalating the tension with his civilian partners in governance.

Tunisia’s political crisis forewarns economic collapse
 Economists are sounding the alarm about a possible economic collapse in Tunisia, urging for reforms to revive the economy that had been suffering since 2011 amid political instability.

The Biden administration’s self-defeating approach to Iran and China

Against China, a better trade policy is a better foreign policy

The West shouldn’t deny the big picture on Turkey’s Erdoğan

A Sinking Ship of State Drowns Everyone

Defense policy experts Bradley Bowman, Bryan Clark, Mackenzie Eaglen, and Thomas Spoehr recently outlined their recommendations in War on the Rocks 

Sudan Protests for Military Coup.  Thousands rallied at the presidential palace in Khartoum on Saturday calling for the military to initiate a coup and overthrow the civilian government. The protests come as the military demands reforms to the coalition government which civilian leaders view as a power grab in the wake of a thwarted September coup attributed to forces still loyal to ousted President Omar al-Bashir.  BBC Reuters

Ethiopian Airstrikes Hit Tigray.  Ethiopia’s military has allegedly hit the Tigray capital region of Mekele with airstrikes, killing three people according to media reports citing local eye witnesses.  The new offensive comes amid pressure from the US and the EU to stem the violence. Associated Press Al Jazeera

Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (TTP) consolidates power in tribal areas

• WINEP’s Simon Henderson: While Washington argues, Iran makes nuclear advances
  

Ezgi Yazici writes: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s failure to work effectively with the United States and its NATO allies undermines his position with Russia and enables Putin to take advantage of Turkey’s strategic vulnerabilities. Ankara’s balancing act between the United States and Russia depends on maintaining Turkey’s strategic importance and relevance for both states, leverage that Erdogan may be losing. – Institute for the Study of War 

Michael Rubin writes: The lira, Turkey’s currency, is in free fall. A decade ago, it traded at 1.83 to the US dollar. Five years ago, it hovered around three to the dollar. Last week it surpassed nine to the dollar and, on Friday, it closed at 9.27. That the Turkish lira could drop an order of magnitude might sound farfetched, but it is not for a simple reason: Turkey’s foreign reserves are missing. – 19fortyfive 

Munqith Dagher writes: However, the Iraqi state’s current military capabilities are supported by the Atabat and the Sadrist militias, and these combined forces may be enough to prevent the losing factions from aggravating tensions. Even with what seems to be a reduced willingness of Iran to support its followers in Iraq and escalate the security threats there, the government and international community alike should remain vigilant to these possibilities to prevent the alternative of being caught off-guard. – Washington Institute ​

Jennifer Cafarella and Caroline Rose write: The United States needs a more calibrated withdrawal plan in Iraq. Retaining U.S. advisors is necessary as a counterweight to Iran but is not sufficient to achieve sustainable security and governance conditions. The United States will continue to face pressure in Iraq from Iran’s proxies, who remain committed to escalating until all U.S. forces withdraw. Retreat in Iraq is fueling instability, not mitigating it. The United States must reorient on a long-term mission to stabilize Iraq based on its needs rather than continue a misguided acquiescence to Iran. – The National Interest

Zahid Shahab Ahmed and Dalbir Ahlawat write: While multilateral forums face challenges due to the existing geopolitical dynamics between India and Pakistan in the SAARC and India and China in the SCO, New Delhi and Islamabad stand to gain by bilaterally engaging on the issue of Afghanistan. Instead of turning their neighbor into a liability, they can turn Afghanistan into an asset through constructive engagement aimed at stability in the region. – The National Interest

How Does North Korea Evade Sanctions?
​The Chinese-Russian Relationship and Its Risks to U.S. Interests
​What Drives U.S. Adversaries to Use Military Forces Abroad?
Lessons from Afghanistan
​China and Pakistan See Eye to Eye on the Taliban—Almost

Russia hasn't cleared Turkish attack on strategic Syrian town
Ankara has yet to secure a go-ahead from Moscow for an anticipated assault on the Syrian town of Tell Rifaat, which is controlled by Kurdish groups.
Read More  

Drone sale to Ethiopia could jeopardize Turkey-Egypt dialogue
Turkey risks derailing normalization talks with Egypt by selling armed drones to Ethiopia, in addition to coming under international fire should Ethiopia use the drones in the conflict in Tigray.
Read More  ​

Burak Bekdil: European "Pushback Is a Must" if Turkey Unleashes Afghan Migrants
by Marilyn Stern
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