CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR - CounterStrikeMedia

The Winner of Trump's Middle East Policy

11/30/2016

Abrams, Sadot: Trump and the art of an Israel-Palestine peace deal

Elliott Abrams and Uri Sadot write: If President-elect Trump focuses on quick wins once he takes office, he will find that Israeli-Palestinian peace is less “the ultimate deal” than an impossible dream. The better course for the new American leader would be to put an end to dreaming and instead seek pragmatic changes that can improve the lives of Israelis and Palestinians alike. Critics may call this “small ball,” but repeated efforts prove that peace between Israelis and Palestinians will be built step by step — not by searching for new dramas on the White House lawn. – Foreign Policy

AEI

Dennis Ross writes: Ultimately, reconciling Israeli security with Palestinian sovereignty needs is likely to require fresh approaches. An Arab state role in fulfilling Palestinian security responsibilities, performance-based criteria to determine the timetable for Israeli withdrawal, and lease arrangements to permit ongoing Israeli and Palestinian presence in each other’s states consistent with each other’s sovereign jurisdiction may be keys to success. – Washington Post

Sohrab Ahmari writes: The bigger error would be to treat Arab-Israeli peace like a real-estate deal. An avid deal maker would be inclined to see the conflict as a matter of offering just the right inducements to the parties. But that’s precisely the failed approach that has disappointed successive American presidents for half a century, since it doesn’t take the Palestinian ideology into account. Such bargaining leads nowhere with a people willing to risk burning down the land their future state would inherit. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Status of Iraq

11/29/2016

The Tower

Iraqi Shia Militias

Six weeks into the battle, the force made up of 50,000 troops, Shiite and Sunni tribal militias and Kurdish fighters is a long way from winning back the country's second-largest city. The fight is showing the limitations of Iraq's military and security forces, suggesting it has still not fully recovered from the collapse it suffered two years ago in the face of the militants' blitz across much of northern and western Iraq. – Associated Press

Iraq is at risk of partition and the worst sectarian bloodletting since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion if Shi'ite paramilitary units get involved in the fight against Islamic State for Mosul, a senior Sunni Iraqi politician said on Monday. - Reuters

Vali Nasr writes: After decades of global stability, anxiety and unpredictability are now ubiquitous. A vacuum of American leadership is eroding long-standing alliances and emboldening challengers to the international order. Nowhere is this trend more evident than in the Middle East. The region’s conflagrations, its array of power-brokers, old alliances, and new coalitions, will test Donald Trump, and demand that his administration clearly define America’s priorities and interests there. Europe and Asia will be watching. – The Atlantic

Trump's Challenge in the Middle East & Russian Mirage in Near East

11/29/2016

Defense One

Andrew Tabler, Dennis Ross: A Syria policy for Trump

FPI’s Tzvi Kahn: The Russian mirage in the Middle East

FPI Senior Policy Analyst Tzvi Kahn writes: Over the past year, the Obama administration has largely ignored the burgeoning relationship between Moscow and Tehran, apparently fearful that any meaningful opposition would undermine the viability of the JCPOA. In this respect, President-elect Trump’s stated approach to Russia not only would continue the failed efforts of his predecessor, but would double down on a policy that will further embolden both Russian and Iranian aggression. If the president-elect wishes to reverse the nuclear agreement he rightly lambasted during the campaign, he must prove willing to challenge the key actors who have enabled its worst consequences. – Foreign Policy Initiative

Mr. Assad’s victory, if he should achieve it, may well be Pyrrhic: He would rule over an economic wasteland hampered by a low-level insurgency with no end in sight, diplomats and experts in the Middle East and elsewhere say. – New York Times

Andrew Tabler and Dennis Ross write: If anything, Trump should send a clear message to Putin: if Russia continues to back Assad, even as he fails to fulfill his commitments under Resolution 2254, Russia may become trapped in an increasingly costly war that it cannot win. In presenting these options, the United States should underscore the fact that there is no whole-country political solution as long as Assad remains in power—too much blood has been spilled, too many crimes have been committed, and too much pain has been endured for the opposition and their regional supporters to accept such an outcome. – Foreign Affairs’ Snapshots

Stephen Blank writes: The idea of a deal with Russia against ISIS makes little sense, especially as ISIS is already reeling without Russia and there is little we can do in Syria until we find an ally who can beat Assad. Since Trump and his team have evinced no sign of being interested in humanitarian considerations, they should think long and hard about realpolitik and realize that Moscow’s open-ended commitment to Assad gives us the possibility of leverage. That is, if we can hold off making a deal with Putin until his Syrian adventure becomes so costly that he wants a deal with us more than we do with him. – Atlantic Council

The U.S. Must Prepare Policy in Afghanistan For "The Long Haul"

Israeli Pre-Emption in Golan Against The Islamic State

11/29/2016

BBC

Russia Enters New Relations with Cairo; Iraqi, Lebanese Shia Take Aleppo & How John Kerry Wants to Abandon Aleppo

11/28/2016

The Guardian

U.S. commanders in the Mideast are keeping a wary eye on the burgeoning military relationship between Egypt and Russia, which could further expand Moscow’s growing influence in the region. – Washington Times

Josh Rogin reports: Our indefatigable outgoing Secretary of State John F. Kerry is engaged in a furious if implausible diplomatic effort to strike a deal with Russia to end the siege of Aleppo. He is motivated not just by the scale of the humanitarian crisis in the Syrian city but also by the prospect that the incoming president will strike a different kind of deal with Moscow, one that abandons the Syrian opposition and places the United States squarely on the side of dictator Bashar al-Assad. – Washington Post

Tom Rogan writes: When Russia’s offensive in Syria began last year, I argued that Putin’s strategy would focus on “securing a contiguous area of Assad-regime control in western Syria, reaching from the north to the south.” Just over a year later, the Russian leader is on the verge of a far greater victory. – National Review

Pakistan Military Guard Changes Hands: Structural Opacity of Civil-Military Relations Permanent

11/28/2016

DAWN

The news came in a brief, bland-sounding tweet from the army public relations office this past week, noting that Gen. Raheel Sharif, Pakistan’s popular army chief, was beginning a round of “farewell” visits to military units across the country. – Washington Post

Pakistan has a new army chief, but don't expect a lot of changes with a new man in charge. Reuters reports that Lt. Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa will take over as army chief from Gen. Raheel Sharif. Bajwa has kept a low profile throughout his career with few clues as to his policy inclinations but Defense Minister Khawaja Asif says that Bajwa likely won't be a radical departure from his predecessors.

Gen. Raheel Sharif, Pakistan’s powerful army chief, steps down Tuesday at the height of his popularity, ending a three-year term during which his nation aggressively battled militant groups and saw a sharp reduction in terrorist attacks. But as he makes way for a successor, Sharif also leaves behind an army that has significantly increased its share of power through sweeping counter-terrorism policies that critics say have further weakened the country’s democratic institutions. – Los Angeles Times

sr393-countering-militancy-and-terrorism-in-pakistan-the-civil-military-nexus.pdf
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Obama's Policy: Muddle Through

11/27/2016

Frustrated at the slow pace of fighting against an Islamic State enemy that's tenacious and dug into Mosul's urban landscape, some Iraqi military officials now want to change tacticsto allow for looser rules of engagement, according to the Wall Street Journal. The plan for the liberation of Mosul was premised on urging civilians to shelter in place within the city rather than green lighting an exodus from the city which could cause logistical problems. But the jihadist group has exploited the presence of civilians in the city to constrain the use of artillery and airstrikes, leading some to question whether a call to flee the city is warranted.

Iraq's parliament has taken a controversial step, recognizing private militias as an official part of Iraq's government and armed forces. The predominantly Shia and Iranian-backed militias joined the fight against the Islamic State shortly after the fall of Mosul to the jihadist group in 2014 as Iraq's formal military melted away and lost ground. The militias, however, have proven controversial among Iraq's Sunni minority for what human rights groups say is a campaign of sectarian killings, abuse, and human rights violations. Sunni members of parliament boycotted the vote to pass the law and called it a threat to an inclusive, unified Iraq.

Israel burns & Post Ottoman Empire Demise

11/27/2016

John Bolton: Fixing Afghanistan, Why the "ZERO OPTION" Isn't Valid Policy

11/27/2016

A former Taliban official tells the Guardian that the militant group is facing a cash crunchdespite gaining more territory. Mullah Rahmatullah Kakazada tells the paper that the Taliban's traditional donor base has lost interest in funding the conflict as the departure of a number of American troops, high toll of civilian casualties, and factional fighting among different Taliban splinter groups saps the group's narrative of being a pure fighting force resisting a foreign occupation. Taliban fundraising was also hurt when a U.S. drone strike killed the group's leader Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, who had close relationships with many big donors.

Afghanistan’s security crisis is fueling new opportunities for Al Qaeda, the Islamic State and other extremist groups, Afghan and American officials say, voicing new concerns that the original American mission in the country — removing its use as a terrorist haven — is at risk. – New York Times

The man, who had introduced himself as Sardar Zmarai, a prince and a senior representative from President Ashraf Ghani’s Office of the National Security Council, was actually a serial impostor — a daring con. – New York Times

The commander of U.S. Central Command said Wednesday he doesn't want American troop levels in Afghanistan to drop anytime soon -- and that the decision to keep more in country sent a "strong message." – Military.com

al-Qaeda in Afghanistan: bin Ladin's Appointment & Suicide Bombers

11/25/2016

The Long War Journal

Iranian Shia Proxies in Iraq Winning 'The Long War'

11/25/2016

The Long War Journal

Institute For Study of War: MAP of Mosul

America's War Against the Terror Masters In 3 Charts

11/23/2016

Defense One

Iran Smuggles MIssile Technology to Lebanese Proxies via Commerical Flights

11/23/2016

The Tower

AEI Iran Tracker: Intelligence on Iran regimes infantry as proxies in Syria, 'The Long War'

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ senior fellow Emanuele Ottolenghi has tracked flights between Iran and Syria’s resupply route and has written extensively about the problem of selling additional planes to Iran. As the chart below shows, Iran Air has not ceased its illicit activities. It continues to fly the supply route, ferrying weapons and militants to the Syrian regime, which has killed almost 500,000 civilians in the last five years. Syria is a designated State Sponsor of Terrorism. – Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Behnam Ben Taleblu writes: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei addressed members of the Basij paramilitary force on Wednesday, doubling down on charges that the U.S. had transgressed last summer’s nuclear deal. Iran, he thundered, “has no fear of any power in this world,” and warned that if Washington passes sanctions laid out in a recent House bill, it would constitute a violation of the deal that would “certainly” require Tehran to “react.” – Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Hanin Ghaddar writes: In recent days, two developments took place near Syria's borders that suggest the intentions Tehran and its proxies hold for that country and the surrounding region. To the west, the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah held a high-profile military parade in al-Qusayr, Syria, while to the east, the Shiite militias known as Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) captured Tal Afar airport in Iraq. Both incidents align with Iran's repeated message to the international community: that it will do whatever it takes to be a decisionmaker in the corridor stretching from Iraq to Lebanon via Syria. – Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Kurdistan RISING: Author, Johns Hopkins Professor International Relations Dr. Bryan Gibson Interview on "SOLD OUT: U.S. KURISH RELATIONS & INDEPENDENCE"

11/22/2016

Dr. Bryan Gibson Hompage

Wilson Center PDF Summary "From Tribe to Nation: Iraqi Kurdistan on Cusp of Statehood"

The Kurds: A Modern History by Michael M. Gunter

Invisible Nation: How the Kurds Quest for Statehood Is Shaping Iraq & the Middle East

Kurdistan Rising? Consideration for Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region PDF from AEI

Meanwhile. . . Iranian-Russian Proxy of Syria

11/21/2016

Frederic Hof writes: The slaughter of Syrian civilians and its policy consequences are bad enough. The narratives of those who unashamedly glorify the perpetrators and those who coldly dismiss defending the defenseless add enduring insult to an ongoing abomination. And someone will ultimately have to pay to rebuild that which has been utterly wrecked by a regime and its supporters. – Atlantic Council

While the U.S.-backed campaign to retake the city of Mosul from the Islamic State in Iraq makes slow but steady progress, the battle for Raqqa, Syria, the “capital” of the group’s self-styled caliphate, has gotten off to a much shakier start, with various factions of the U.S.-backed coalition already at odds. – Washington Times

Syria’s government hopes a brutal siege will vanquish rebel holdouts in the city of Aleppo, a key battleground. But Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s troops aren’t leading the charge. That task has been taken up by thousands of Shiite militiamen from Lebanon, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan who are loyal to Iran, a Shiite country and perhaps Assad’s most important ally. – Washington Post

Relentless bombardment targeting medical facilities in Aleppo’s besieged eastern half has forced all remaining functioning hospitals to shut down by Saturday, leaving an estimated 300,000 residents without medical care. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Senate Armed Services Chairman John McCain, R-Ariz., reiterated his plan for Syria at the Halifax International Security Forum Saturday, which includes establishing a no-fly zone and putting US boots on the ground at a time when US President-elect Donald Trump’s plan remains unknown or non-existent. – Defense News

The Syrian government on Sunday refused a U.N. proposal to grant the rebel-held eastern districts of Aleppo autonomy to restore calm to the war-torn city. – Associated Press

U.S. President Barack Obama said on Sunday that chaos in Syria could persist for "quite some time" and that Russian and Iranian support for President Bashar al-Assad's air campaign had emboldened the Syrian leader's crackdown on rebels. - Reuters

Tony Badran writes: The president hopes to stick Trump with the gruesome results of his Syria policy while pretending that what might well turn out to be Trump’s own cooperation with Putin is somehow a startling departure from the course that he set and proudly and repeatedly refused to alter during six years of stomach-turning mass murder of innocent civilians by a genocidal regime. - Tablet

Badran also writes: For all the talk that Assad has seemingly turned a corner, reversing his gains and turning the heat back on him is very doable. Allying with the Turkish-backed Euphrates Shield is an option. Reactivating the southern front is another. Invigorating the rebel offensive in Hama and reactivating the Latakia front from Idlib are all feasible options. However, they all require American leadership and a clarity of purpose and understanding of what’s at stake in Syria. Whether Trump agrees remains to be seen. – The Cipher Brief

FATah Crumbling

11/21/2016

CFR

Martin Kramer: Decline in Palestinian Studies

False Premise of Peace in Palestine

The Tower: Why Its OVER for Abbas

Middle East Forum: Team Obama's Sabotage of Trump's Israeli Policy

Gatestone Institute: Iran & Israel

Trump & Afghan Posture

11/16/2016

Afghanistan fires 7 from cabinet in intensifying political crisis

Afghanistan’s Parliament has dismissed seven government ministers over the past four days, adding to the woes of a fragile coalition that for months had bickered over filling the cabinet positions in the first place. – New York Times

Trump & The Islamic State: Breaking Defense

Choice for US in Afghanistan: escalate or let Taliban capture more turf

As many as six of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces are in danger of falling to the militants, according to Afghan and coalition officials. At least three provinces—Kunduz, Helmand and Farah—would probably have been lost already had it not been for the deployment of U.S. Special Forces to their capitals to support Afghan commandos with additional firepower and airstrikes, coalition officials say. As a result, the U.S. is expected to face an unappealing choice: either escalate its involvement in the Afghan conflict—by sending in more troops or increasing the tempo of airstrikes and Special Forces operations—or risk allowing the Taliban to capture several Afghan provinces next year. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Khalilzad — who has been mentioned as a possible candidate for secretary of state, or more likely a lower-profile adviser on foreign policy in the Trump administration — seems to many Afghans like a potential lifeline to an unpredictable new government in Washington, following years of reliable U.S. economic and military aid to his impoverished and war-wracked country. – Washington Post

At least 27 people were killed and dozens wounded when a suicide bomber detonated explosives in a crowded gathering of Shiite Muslims at a mosque in the Afghan capital on Monday, officials said. – New York Times

Yemeni Fall out

11/15/2016

AEI

Saudi Arabia and Iran are waging a struggle for dominance that has turned much of the Middle East into their battlefield. Rather than fighting directly, they wield and in that way worsen the region’s direst problems: dictatorship, militia violence and religious extremism. – New York Times

Pakistan Indigenous Terror Proxies

11/14/2016

A suicide bomber struck a crowded gathering of Shiite Muslims in the Afghan capital on Monday, officials said, killing at least 30 people in the latest assault against religious minorities here to be claimed by militants loyal to the Islamic State. – New York Times

Pakistan’s army chief began a farewell tour ahead of his scheduled retirement, indicating he will become the first army chief in two decades to step down on time in a country usually fraught with tensions over the role of the powerful military. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

A powerful bomb blast ripped through a Sufi shrine in southwestern Pakistan on Saturday evening, killing at least 52 people and wounding at least 100 others, officials said. – New York Times

The Islamic State group is increasing its presence in Pakistan, recruiting Uzbek militants, attracting disgruntled Taliban fighters and partnering with one of Pakistan's most violent sectarian groups, according to police officers, Taliban officials and analysts. – Associated Press

Mosul & "The Long War"

11/14/2016

Update 11/22/2016
As difficult as it will be to drive Islamic State from its last major stronghold in Iraq, there is little doubt that the militants in Mosul will be defeated. The question is whether they will be back one day. – Los Angeles Times

Iran has positioned thousands of loyal Iraqi Shiite militia fighters around Mosul with a strategic goal of creating long-lasting armies inside Iraq that can also deploy as an expeditionary force to Syria, Yemen and other contested regions, analysts say. – Washington Times

Iraqi troops fighting Islamic State militants in the eastern outskirts of Mosul regrouped on Monday in neighborhoods they recently retook from the extremist group, conducting house-to-house searches and looking for would-be suicide car bombs, a top Iraqi commander said. – Associated Press

The bracing scale of the devastation in Nimrud has become fully apparent only in recent days, after Iraqi soldiers advancing on the northern city of Mosul recaptured the ancient site from Islamic State militants who took control of the area more than two years ago. – Washington Post

It’s a long, hard slog to the Tigris River that carves through the center of Mosul — and then a whole new battle awaits on the other side. Commanders expressed confidence that they eventually will prevail, but they are less optimistic that they will meet Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s pledge to have the city under control by the end of the year. – Washington Post

Islamic State militants have summarily killed scores of civilians in the Iraqi city of Mosul in recent days, sometimes using children as executioners, and have used chemical agents against Iraqi and Kurdish troops, United Nations officials said on Friday. – New York Times

Allegations of extrajudicial killings by Iraqi government forces surfaced recently, nearly a month after the offensive to recapture this northern city began. – Los Angeles Times

Since July, the Islamic State’s defenders in Mosul have been busily turning the group’s Iraqi capital into a fortress in preparation for the onslaught they knew would come. Now, newly published satellite images reveal just how elaborate those efforts have been. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint

It’s the most important battle in the war against the self-proclaimed Islamic State to date: the fight to retake Mosul, the terror group’s Iraqi capital. But so far, the U.S. military does not know how many ISIS fighters have been taken prisoner, a senior defense official explained to The Daily Beast. – The Daily Beast

William McCants writes: The patient won’t get well anytime soon, but he won’t die either, which may be the best we can hope for given the current upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa. For those who object that treating the symptoms and not the disease is a terrible idea, contemplate the consequences of treating the wrong disease. – Brookings Institution

The Kurdish YPG militia will pull its forces from the Syrian city of Manbij and withdraw east of the Euphrates River in order to participate in the campaign to liberate the Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa, it said in a statement. - Reuters

Josh Rogin reports: In its first full day back in session, the Republican-led House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a bill to sanction the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as well as its Russian and Iranian enablers, for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The move puts pressure on President-elect Donald Trump to decide whether saving Syrian civilians and standing up to mass atrocities — as opposed to partnering with Russian President Vladimir Putin — are things he believes in. – Washington Post

Editorial: Again, the Syrian regime is not fighting the Islamic State in Aleppo. It is bombing and besieging its own citizens, with Russian and Iranian help. In refusing to allow aid deliveries and in targeting hospitals, it is willfully committing crimes against humanity. “I don’t think anybody wants a quarter of a million people to be starving in east Aleppo,” said Jan Egeland, the head of a U.N.-backed humanitarian task force. Tragically, he is wrong. The Assad regime and Mr. Putin want it. Mr. Obama is unwilling to prevent it. And Mr. Trump is, at best, indifferent. – Washington Post

Egypt's Al-Sisi Fights Muslim Brotherhood INsurgency, Interview With Maj. General Morsi

11/14/2016

Egypt's Court of Cassation overturned on Tuesday a life sentence against deposed President Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood and ordered a retrial in the case that revolves around accusations of espionage with Palestinian group Hamas. - Reuters

For days, hundreds of students have been marching through the palm-dotted campus of the university, demanding a cap on their tuition. The demonstrations are the largest and longest-running at the institution in years, reflecting how Egypt’s economic woes have touched nearly everybody in this stratified society of 91 million people. – New York Times

Michele Dunne writes: As I told my aunt and uncle some months ago, I think they will be disappointed in how much president-elect Trump, a political outsider with a questionable record in business, will do about their very legitimate and longstanding economic grievances. Just ask Egyptians. They empowered Sisi through a coup, and later a presidential election, in order to improve the state’s functioning and get the economy moving. What they have three years later is a state that is not accountable to citizens in any meaningful way—as all competitors and alternatives have been eliminated—and an economy that is in much worse shape than it was in 2013. – Carnegie Endowment’s Diwan

Eric Trager writes: Egypt’s significant economic moves are unlikely to be coupled with political reforms. If anything, the new law on nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), which seeks to establish direct government oversight over all NGOs and penalizes violators with prison sentences of one to five years, suggests that the political environment will only become more restrictive. – The Cipher Brief

Israel, U.S. Policy In Near East & President Elect

11/10/2016

Russia, Turkey expand military operations in Syria

MEF: 5 Wars in Syria

Eight hospitals bombed in the past week, five of them within the last 48 hours. Food stores running out of supplies. Scores of people killed in a single day. By Wednesday night, it was clear that the escalation feared for weeks in rebel-held parts of northern Syria was underway, as Russian and Syrian government warplanes carried out a second straight day of intense bombardment. – New York Times

A total military victory for Bashar al-Assad rather than a negotiated peace deal will leave Syria and Europe exposed to resurgent Sunni terrorism, as in Iraq, the UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, has warned. – The Guardian

The U.S. military has halted support for Turkish ground troops pushing deeper into Islamic State-held territory in Syria, highlighting the mounting tension between NATO allies over how to defeat the extremist group. – Military Times

A former top Turkish general said Donald Trump’s election could hasten the end of the Syrian civil war by opening the door to negotiations with the Syrian government of President Bashar Assad. – Stars and Stripes

A Russian airstrike in northern Syria this week killed at least 30 members of an al-Qaida-linked group, including some of its leaders, the Russian military said Thursday. – Associated Press

Reforming the Veterans Administration

11/10/2016

Try NOT To Laugh, But Pakistan Is Calling

11/10/2016

Pakistani foreign affairs adviser Sartaj Aziz says his country would like to work with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on the common interest of combatting terrorism. – Associated Press

India
Interview: The Cipher Brief spoke with Derek Scissors, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, to learn more about the objectives of Modinomics and the challenges to still be overcome. – The Cipher Brief

Interview: The Cipher Brief spoke with Tanvi Madan, Director of the India Project at the Brookings Institution to learn more about Modi’s foreign policy strategy and his goals for India. – The Cipher Brief

Pakistan has named a new head of its military Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI). – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

The Caliphate Can Still Rise

11/10/2016

Jessica Lewis McFate and Melissa Pavlik write: ISIS has organized a number of external attacks worldwide in the past year, some of which have been thwarted. ISIS’s global network is still operating and is poised to continue conducting external attacks in late 2016. The U.S. must recognize that the campaign to recapture Mosul and Raqqa will not defeat ISIS. Rather, any military success in Iraq and Syria must be the first phase of a campaign to counter ISIS globally, whether through military or non-military means. – Institute for the Study of War

Colin Clarke and Daveed-Gartenstein Ross write: A close examination of the strategists of yesteryear provides a prescient guide for what is to come, but does not tell the entirety of the tale. Reading Suri’s works can help us to anticipate ISIL’s next moves, but a full understanding of the strategist’s life reveals that we need to look beyond his words alone. Much of ISIL’s adaptations will be wedded to the broader changes in the environment in which ISIL will be attempting its rebound. – War on the Rocks

From Egypt – where Obama very early in his first term promised to reset relations with the Arab world – to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, Sunni leaders expressed hopes for closer cooperation with the man who maligned Muslims on the campaign trail, yet also pledged to put the squeeze on their Shiite adversary in Iran. – Defense News

AFRICA'S POST COLONIAL ERA ENDING
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AFRICAN ARAB SPRING

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DEFEATING SECTARIANISM IN MIDDLE EAST

rand_rb10052.pdf
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SECULARISM, NATIONALISM, ISLAMISM: MAKING MODERN MIDDLE EAST
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