CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR - CounterStrikeMedia

ISRAELI RELATIONS WITH PERSIAN GULF STATES EMERGING & NETANYAHU'S COALITION STAYS ALIVE

11/29/2018

WHY THE US IS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: Jerusalem wants to see the US engaged, influential and active in the region. It doesn’t want to see it disengaged and concerned only about its own domestic problems.
Read more...

A New Phase in Israel-Gulf Relations by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
November 26, 2018
https://www.meforum.org/articles/2018/a-new-phase-in-israel-gulf-relations

Will Netanyahu’s coalition collapse?
Facing the danger of a negative vote, the narrow coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was forced to withdraw two bills that were set to be approved this week.

Cease-fire agreement sends tremors through Israeli Knesset
While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cease-fire agreement with Gaza led Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman to submit his resignation, it also led the opposition to call for early elections.

MALI: FRENCH KILL OFF AL-QAEDA LEADER

11/29/2018

The death of a senior leader will temporarily disrupt an al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) affiliate in central Mali. French forces killed Amadou Koufa, a deputy leader of Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen, on November 23. Koufa helped expand AQIM’s reach into central Mali and northern Burkina Faso by appealing to local ethnic grievances and mentoring other militant leaders. Salafi-jihadi groups will continue to expand in central Mali despite Koufa’s death as long as government repression and local conflict continue.

The Salafi-Jihadi Base in the Sahel

THE WINDING DOWN OF US COMMITMENT IN AFGHANISTAN & NAWAZ SHARIF MUST LEAD PAKISTANI OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP

11/29/2018

Pakistan, stop coddling terrorists
Sadanand Dhume | The Wall Street Journal

Taliban calls Afghan government “impotent,” says negotiating with it is “a waste of time”
The Taliban yet again belittled the Afghan government as a "powerless and foreign imposed" regime that is unworthy of sitting down at a negotiating table. Additionally, the Taliban noted that it is "fighting and negotiating with the American invaders for the success of Jihad.

Afghan government’s negotiating position completely at odds with Taliban’s
President Ghani wants the Taliban to accept democracy, participate in the government, and break ties with terrorist groups. The Taliban has repeatedly refused to adhere to these demands. Additionally, Ghani called for negotiations that are first driven by Afghans, which is the opposite of what is actually occurring today.

A Pivotal Year Ahead for Afghanistan
By Omar Samad, Atlantic Council: “Even as another turbulent year draws to a close in Afghanistan, 2019 could end up becoming a pivotal one for a nation caught between geopolitical power projections, evolving peace and political pressures, and contrasting visions for the future—unless there is a concerted effort to agree on an inclusive, practical, and timebound political process that includes a peace plan."

Nawaz must lead charge against the establishment
IMAD ZAFAR
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan's PTI-led government has completed its first 100 days in power. Despite the hype, Khan and his team generated with their promise to bring visible changes to the economic and governance front in the first 100 days, they have failed to deliver. In spite of the lackluster performance and a visionless approach by the government led by Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, it actually does not face any threat from the weak opposition....

Another black chapter in Pakistan’s judicial history

"Afghan government’s negotiating position completely at odds with Taliban’s," Bill Roggio, FDD's Long War Journal

Taliban Unmasked: Afghan Taliban’s Continued Symbiotic Relationship
with al Qaeda and International Terrorism
By Tamim Asey, Small Wars Journal: “The question is, have they really changed and cut ties with Al Qaeda and its allies? Are they different after almost two decades of fighting? Has the Taliban movement been fundamentally transformed, or they have just become ‘good politicians’, i.e. pretenders, sugarcoating themselves into a new role only to change later once they once again assume power?"

PAKISTAN SEEKS TO MEND TIES WITH INDIA

11/28/2018

BLOOMBERG

But in a goodwill gesture on Wednesday, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan broke ground on a corridor allowing Indian Sikhs visa-free access to the gurdwara. It will be part of a broader complex known as the Kartarpur Crossing. – NPR

Sadanand Dhume writes: For many Indian citizens, Pakistan’s failure to deliver even a modicum of justice for Mumbai’s victims proves that Islamabad has neither the intention nor the will to act against Islamist terrorist groups, which the army uses to destabilize India and Afghanistan. – Wall Street Journal

IMRAN KHAN FIRST 100 DAYS: PAKISTANI READER

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan said on Wednesday his government and the military want to mend ties with arch-foe India, in the latest bid to improve relations between the nuclear-armed neighbours. – Reuters

Since the country declared independence in 1947, Pakistan has come into conflict with its neighbor India on a number of occasions. The nation has one of the strongest military forces in the world and plays a key role in South Asian affairs. So how strong is Pakistan’s military? – Newsweek

THE MIDDLE EAST IS READY TO GO NUCLEAR

11/27/2018

https://spectator.org/saudis-going-nuclear-a-partial-case-can-be-made/

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia visits Mauritania and Algeria after attending the G20 Summit in Argentina. The Algerian Workers’ Party has warned of protests against the crown prince similar to those that greeted him in Tunisia.

Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak faces off with his deposed successor Mohammed Morsi for the first time in a Cairo courtroom. Morsi and 28 others are being retried on charges stemming from a massive jailbreak during the 2011 revolution.

US SOLDIERS KILLED BY TALIBAN & US AID TO PAKISTAN SUSPENDED

11/27/2018

LWJ

Nader Nadery writes: But even as the sense of urgency for peace grows, the parties involved are still far apart in their objectives. Taliban statements a little more than two weeks ago at a peace conference in Moscow sounded unchanged from statements they made years ago. The Taliban don’t seem ready to acknowledge how fundamentally Afghan society has been transformed since their rule ended, particularly regarding democratic practices and the rights of women. – Washington Post

Earl Anthony Wayne, Daniel F. Runde, & Jena Santoro write: Afghanistan has much potential for longer-term growth in mining, agri-business, and regional connectivity via energy and rail corridors. Although Afghanistan’s “youth bulge” brings massive numbers of new entrants into the job market each year, the task is made harder still with the Taliban gaining control of additional territory and violent clashes inflicting high civilian casualties. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

TOI: US AID TO PAKISTAN SUSPENDED

TUNISIA PROTESTS SAUDI VISIT AMID LOAN FROM RIYADH

11/27/2018

Aaron Y. Zelin writes: Over the past few years, the influx of Tunisian fighters to Iraq and Syria has rendered Tunisia practically synonymous with a phenomenon that is still not well understood. […]This study examines the motives driving Tunisia’s foreign fighters, the roles they have assumed with jihadi groups in Iraq and Syria, the reasons why many have returned to Tunisia from the battlefield, and the dilemma this poses to the Tunisian state in terms of security and human rights. – Washington Institute

Saudi Arabia offers Tunisia $500 million loan
Saudi Arabia has agreed to provide a $500 million loan to Tunisia at favorable interest rates, Reuters reported on Wednesday. The kingdom will also fund two $140 million projects in Tunisia. In the coming days Tunisia is expected to officially announce deals that were struck as part of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Tunis earlier this week as part of his regional tour in the aftermath of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, which also included stops in Egypt, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Hundreds of protesters in Tunisia rallied against the crown prince’s visit and his meeting with President Beji Caid Essebsi on Tuesday. Read More

Challenges to old world order seen in Middle East

Tunisians protest visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed
Dozens of Tunisian activists took to the streets of Tunis and Sfax on Monday to protest a visit by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Tunisian unions and civil society groups rallied against the crown prince because of his alleged involvement in the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. The protests came as police in Turkey raided a rural villa in their search for Khashoggi’s body. Mohammed is expected to arrive in Tunisia today as part of a regional tour, his first foreign trip since Khashoggi’s murder last month.
On Monday, the crown prince visited Egypt, where President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi welcomed him at the airport. The two leaders discussed a range of regional issues and bilateral ties. Prior to arriving in Egypt, Mohammed visited King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa in Bahrain, where the two inaugurated an oil pipeline run jointly by the Saudi oil company Aramco and the Bahrain Petroleum Company.
Read More 

Trump administration to brief Senate on Saudi Arabia
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense James Mattis will briefsenators on Wednesday regarding Saudi Arabia’s murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. A large, bipartisan group of lawmakers has rejected President Donald Trump’s support for Riyadh and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the matter, demanding a stronger response. Amid the backlash, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., intends to re-introduce a resolution this week that would cut off all US support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. Read More 

Arab Spring memories fresh as Tunisians protest MBS
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was greeted in Tunisia by hundreds of protesters, blaming him for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and calling for an end to the Saudi-led military campaign in Yemen.

INDIA GRAPPLES WITH PAKISTAN'S DEEP STATE

11/26/2018

India grapples with Pakistan’s deep state 10 years after 26/11
BY VIVEK KATJU
On the 10th anniversary of the 26/11 attack on Mumbai by Pakistani terrorists, India continues to seek ways to engage the Pakistani army's monopoly over foreign policy and support for terrorist groups

ENDLESS WAR FOR THE AMERICAN IMPERIUM

11/26/2018

Syria, Gaza, Afghanistan: The endless wars by Seth J. Frantzman
The Hill
November 20, 2018
https://www.meforum.org/articles/2018/syria,-gaza,-afghanistan-the-endless-wars

LEADER OF AFRICAN CHAD, SUDAN; ARRIVES IN ISRAEL & THE LEGACY OF RABIN, THE STATUS OF ISRAELI COALITIONS

11/25/2018

JPOST

Between Rabin's Legacy and the INSS Plan
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, November 23, 2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), led by Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, recently issued “A Political-Security Framework Strategic Action Plan for the Israeli-Palestinian Arena.” The gap between the INSS initiative and the basic principles expressed by PM Yitzhak Rabin is such that one might assume Rabin would have been fundamentally opposed to the initiative.
Continue to full article ->

Boko Haram brought terror to Niger: Can a defectors program bring peace?

Sudan has been flying military aircraft of Russian and Chinese origin alongside American fighter jets — and sharing data among them, according to the chief of staff of the Sudanese Air Force. – Defense News

David Makovsky writes: Netanyahu has outmaneuvered his rivals by going straight to the public. Yet the narrowing of his parliamentary majority will likely embolden coalition members to push their agenda to the maximum, meaning his government may still fold before completing its term. […]Likewise, the Gaza stalemate is very fragile and may not hold until next fall, ensuring a bumpy road ahead. – Washington Institute

Neri Zilber writes: The threat to Netanyahu’s rule came this time from politicians to his right, who complained that a quick cease-fire with Hamas amounted to a surrender to terrorists. […]Netanyahu may very well still feel pressure from his right flank next time there is an escalation in Gaza or on other fronts. To his credit—and contrary to his public image as a security hard-liner—Netanyahu avoided a major conflagration this past week while retaining his seat as prime minister. – Washington Institute

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fended off a challenge to his fragile coalition Monday as a key partner backed away from a threat to quit the government, staving off snap elections but leaving the embattled leader’s position so precarious that U.S. hopes to begin a peace process in the coming months could be thrown off course. – Wall Street Journal

JPOST: ISRAELI P.M GOES TO CHAD

What’s behind the Chadian president's visit to Israel?
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced he will soon fly to Chad to re-establish diplomatic ties, but, before doing that, Netanyahu must consider which image of Israel he wants to advance in Africa.

A senior Israeli diplomat reportedly met with Sudanese officials in a secret meeting held in Istanbul as part of efforts to renew ties between the two countries and even establish full diplomatic relations. – Times of Israel

THE IMPLOSION OF SYRIA, AGAIN

11/23/2018

MEI experts Rauf Mammadov, Charles Lister, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Iraq-Kurdistan pipeline deal, how the YPG partnership affects US-Turkey ties, and the new Russia-Turkey gas pipeline. – Middle East Institute

LIBYA, EAST AFRICA & KASHMIR: TERROR PROXIES GROWING AMBITION

11/23/2018

Renewed conflict around al Hudaydah city risks undermining confidence building measures for planned UN peace consultations. Emirati-backed Yemeni forces reinforced positions on the outskirts of the city on November 16 and attempted to seize neighborhoods in eastern al Hudaydah city on November 19. The al Houthi movement agreed to halt attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE on November 19. It may use renewed fighting around al Hudaydah to justify not engaging in talks.
The Islamic State’s attempts to expand in eastern and central Africa are unlikely to detract significant support from entrenched local Salafi-jihadi groups. Its al Naba newsletter condemned al Shabaab for targeting Islamic State supporters in Somalia in an effort attract Salafi-jihadi sympathizers away from al Shabaab. An Islamic State financier sent money to the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in recent years. The ADF has not demonstrated operational ties with Salafi-jihadi groups.
Al Qaeda-linked groups based in Kashmir may be preparing to conduct attacks in India in order to distinguish themselves from separatist Kashmiri groups. Indian security forces reported that al Qaeda-linked Jaish-e-Mohamad and Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind (AGH) militants, including the AGH emir, entered India’s Punjab state from Kashmir on November 15 and 16. One of these groups may be responsible for a November 18 attack on Sikh worshipers in Punjab state.

Want more context? We recommend:

"America VS. Iran: The Competition for the Future of the Middle East"

"The Assault on al Hudaydah: Surfacing America’s Partnership Problems"

SUBSTITUTES FOR VICTORY IN AFGHANISTAN

11/23/2018

FDD

The Taliban have denied involvement in a suicide bombing in the Afghan capital that killed at least 55 people. Tuesday’s attack, which targeted a gathering of hundreds of clerics at a wedding hall in Kabul, bore the hallmarks of a local Islamic State affiliate, which has carried out mass bombings targeting minority Shiites as well as perceived supporters of the U.S.-backed government. – Associated Press

Afghan authorities were struggling on Wednesday to identify the group behind a suicide bomb attack that killed at least 55 people attending a gathering of religious scholars in Kabul after the Taliban denied any responsibility. – Reuters

Until now, Shiite Hazara communities in Ghazni had remained untouched. But as the Taliban, a mainly Pashtun and Sunni militant group, has expanded its territory across the country — leaving just 55 percent of Afghan districts under government control or influence — it has launched daring attacks to seize control of Hazara and Shiite strongholds in central Afghanistan. – Washington Post

Pakistan reacted angrily on Monday to criticism by President Trump that the country had not done enough in return for years of United States military aid and that the government had harbored Osama bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaeda. – New York Times

A three-day meeting between the Taliban and the U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan to pave the way for peace talks ended with no agreement, the militant group said a day after the diplomat declared a deadline of April 2019 to end a 17-year-long war. – Reuters

RIYADH CHURNS AFTER DEATH OF JOURNALIST: MBS SURROUNDED BY RIOTING FAMILY MEMBERS

11/20/2018

AL-JAZEERA

The U.S.-Saudi Partnership: A Close Look
Yesterday, the White House announced that the United States would remain a "steadfast partner" of Saudi Arabia, despite new reports about Riyadh's alleged role in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The administration cited security and economic benefits as key drivers of the decision. But RAND experts note that the Saudis need U.S. support more than America needs Saudi Arabia. The United States could indeed use this leverage to encourage the Saudi government to curb its damaging policies abroad. Read more »

Erdogan, MBS, Islamic leadership and the price of silence
BY PEPE ESCOBAR

Editorial: The United States cannot force Mohammed bin Salman’s removal from power, and the fact that he may remain is another rationale for the administration’s response. But it is entirely possible to sanction and shun the Saudi leader while still doing business with his regime. The Saudi royal family cannot afford and will not allow a rupture with the United States. The weakening of the crown prince would likely increase stability in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East. In contrast, a failure to check Mohammed bin Salman will invite even more destructive behavior. – Washington Post

REGIME CHANGE IS COMING TO IRAN

11/20/2018

Like it or not, regime change is coming to Iran
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

HOW QATAR HOPES TO INFLUENCE YEMEN

11/20/2018

How Qatar is working to boost its influence in Yemen
Doha balances close relations with Houthi and Islah factions in the Yemen war in order to take advantage of political instability in the country and bolster its influence over the country’s internal affairs.

The geoeconomics of reconstruction in Yemen
Karen E. Young | The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
The conflict in Yemen has exacted a disastrous toll on the country. This paper considers the outside forces in the conflict, seeking to elucidate who they are, what the nature is of their involvement, and what their interests mean for reconstruction.

Nathan Stock writes: The Egyptian/Qatari initiative has afforded breathing room for Gaza, while Hamas and Prime Minister Netanyahu have demonstrated a determination to avoid war, for now. The international community should build on this window of opportunity, supporting a more comprehensive ceasefire that addresses Gaza’s underlying need for freedom of movement and creates a horizon for political reunification with the West Bank and Palestinian self-determination. Progress in Gaza is rare and often fleeting, and the threat of a wider conflict is ever-present. Failure to capitalize on this limited momentum could see the parties slide back to war. – Middle East Institute

Intense fighting broke out in Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah late on Monday, shattering a lull in violence that had raised hopes for a ceasefire between a Saudi-led coalition and Houthi insurgents as the United Nations tried to resume peace talks. – Reuters

A senior leader of Yemen’s Shiite rebels said on Monday that the group will halt rocket fire into Saudi Arabia for the sake of peace efforts, answering a key Saudi demand in the first public sign of hope for the latest push to stop the bloodshed and civilian suffering in the Arab world’s poorest country. – Associated Press

Karen E. Young writes: The ongoing conflict in Yemen has exacted a disastrous toll on the country’s people, economy, infrastructure, and institutions, as well as the ties that bind them. […]This paper seeks to elucidate who these outside forces are, what the nature is of their involvement, and what their converging and conflicting interests mean for Yemen’s future reconstruction effort. – American Enterprise Institute

Ali Fadli writes: Qatar’s influence is not new, but now is an important time to analyze how the United States can stand to benefit from this soft power. Specifically, Qatar has proven in the past to be an effective mediator between the United States and groups that Washington is unwilling to meet with directly. […]Given recent shifts in power within the region, now is the ideal time for the U.S. administration to clarify its position and take advantage of what Doha has to offer. – Washington Institute

IKE'S GAMBLE: HOW THE US ENTERED THE MIDDLE EAST

11/19/2018

THE MAINSTREAMING OF PAKISTAN'S MILITANTS & WHAT HAPPENED TO ARAB SUPPORT FOR THE PALESTINIANS

11/18/2018

Pakistan and Its Militants: Who Is Mainstreaming Whom?

Peace with the Taliban will not be peaceful

DEBATE: What Happened to Arab Support for the Palestinians?

ISLAMIC STATE FUTURE AFGHANISTAN: PART I

Islamic State's Future in Afghanistan – Part II

Mr Khan, a true statesman never makes U-turns
IMAD ZAFAR
Prime Minister Imran Khan is probably the only leader in recent times who has succeeded in developing a cult following among urban Pakistan's educated middle-class elite. The former cricket star's emergence on the political scene and his subsequent rise to power resemble a fairy tale. After Khan assumed power, people expected a measured and sane approach from him. But then Khan has the habit of surprising everyone, so since becoming the prime minister Khan's opposition mindset...

Washington, Islamabad pay the price for betraying each other
IMAD ZAFAR
Donald Trump has once again explicitly criticized Pakistan by saying the country has not done anything for the US. The US president said in an interview with Fox News that the decision to halt military aid to Pakistan was the correct one, as Pakistan never served US interests. He also said that while the US had been giving Pakistan $1.3 billion in aid annually, in return, Pakistan was keeping Osama bin Laden safe and sound. Pointing...

When in doubt, blame the Pakistanis
TURYAL AZAM KHAN
In an exclusive interview with Chris Wallace of Fox News, US President Donald Trump seemed to be blaming everyone except his administration for America's foreign affairs problems. Since the interviewee left no stone unturned, it was no surprise that Pakistan got a special mention. But should Islamabad care anymore at this point? Trump defended his decision to stop giving military aid to Pakistan, claiming that Islamabad helped Osama Bin Laden to hide out there and that...

Pakistan strongly rejects Trump’s ‘do nothing for us’ claims
BY KUNWAR KHULDUNE SHAHID
The online war of words between Donald Trump and Imran Khan underline the rift between the two nations

The waxing and waning of US-Pakistan relations

Rumors Notwithstanding, Prospects for Israel-Pakistan Relations Remain Dim

DECODING IRAN'S DEFENSE SPENDING

11/18/2018

IISS

LOSING A WAR IN AFGHANISTAN

11/17/2018

Losing a war in Afghanistan
Thomas Joscelyn, Bill Roggio, Wall Street Journal reporter Jessica Donati, and FDD founder and president Clifford D. May discuss the dire situation in Afghanistan, how we got here, where we are going, and negotiations with the Taliban.

Taliban Demands 'An Islamic Government'
By Bill Roggio, FDD's Long War Journal: "Yet again, the Taliban insisted that “an Islamic government,” a not-so-vague reference to its Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, rule the country."

IRANIAN GOVERNMENT FEELS PAIN WITH SANCTIONS, but continues to thwart us & PAKISTANI ABDUCTIONS OF IRANIAN SOLDIERS CONTINUES

11/15/2018

Sanctions push Rouhani to boost state involvement in Iran’s economy
The impact of the re-imposed US sanctions has forced the Rouhani administration to shift its market-oriented approach to the economy to focus on active involvement by the state.

US Treasury adds Qods Force, Hezbollah officials to list of global terrorists
While the Treasury designation focuses on the four Iraqis' links to Hezbollah, which is described as "a terrorist proxy for the Iranian regime that seeks to undermine Iraqi sovereignty and destabilize the Middle East," it practically ignores the fact that one of them is the Secretary General of the Imam Ali Battalions, or Kata’ib Imam Ali, a key component of the Popular Mobilization Forces, an official military army of the Iraqi state that reports directly to the prime minister.

Iran is lobbying European states to host a bartering mechanism allowing Iran to export oil to Europe. A senior Iranian official traveled to Vienna, Austria, and Paris, France, after the EU failed to institute the mechanism before the U.S. reimposed sanctions against Iran on November 5. Tehran may accept additional delays in the mechanism’s implementation due to mounting economic pressures on the regime.

A secret Iranian archive seized by Israeli agents earlier this year indicates that Tehran’s nuclear program was more advanced than Western intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency had thought, according to a prominent nuclear expert who examined the documents. – Foreign Policy

Despite the mullahs’ misrule, they are aging fast. Iran’s young people are clearly not following in the former’s medieval footsteps. The time is coming when young Iranian women and men will be able to dance in the streets and celebrate the end of a long, dark, oppressive night. – Washington Examiner

Iran has executed two men convicted of illegal currency trading, as Tehran steps up its crackdown on alleged financial crimes in the face of economic hardships heightened by U.S. financial sanctions. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Iran’s inflation rate will jump to over 40 percent by the end of the year even as its economy sinks into a deep recession, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

A prominent think tank has criticized the report published this week by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirming the Tehran regime’s continuing compliance with the JCPOA — the watershed nuclear deal on the country’s illicit nuclear program reached in July 2015, but decertified by the US in May this year as part of President Donald Trump’s new offensive against Iran’s Islamist rulers. – Algemeiner

Iraq has agreed with Iran to exchange Iraqi food items for Iranian gas and energy supplies, two Iraqi government officials said on Wednesday. Baghdad is now seeking U.S. approval to allow it to import Iranian gas which is used in its power stations, and needs more time to find an alternative source, they said. The sources are a senior government official and a member of Iraq’s ministerial energy committee. – Reuters

Pakistan-based militants release abducted Iranian soldiers
Pakistan-based militant group Jaish ul-Adl has released five of 12 Iranian soldiers it abducted last month, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said Thursday. IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jafari said, "The kidnappers are seeking to exchange the abducted soldiers with several of their accomplices who are behind bars in the Islamic Republic for committing crimes.” He added, "This request is not acceptable.” Jafari vowed to release the remaining troops but said it would take time. The border area between Iran and Pakistan is a haven for drug smugglers and terrorist groups. Read More 

How Trump’s game of chicken with Iran could weaken dollar’s role

PAKISTAN'S HAND IN GWADAR PORT IS GOOD, WHAT ABOUT GOVERNANCE & GROWING DISCORD ABOUT US-SAUDI WAR IN YEMEN

11/15/2018

As owner of Gwadar Port, Pakistan may be the boss, not the beggar

Growing Chorus Seeks To End War in Yemen
By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | November 16, 2018
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/growing-chorus-seeks-to-end-war-in-yemen/90464/

H.R. MCMASTER ON THE WAY FORWARD FOR AFGHANISTAN, WHY VICTORY ISN'T THE GOAL & A NEW US SAUDI AMBASSADOR FROM CENTCOM

11/15/2018

A New Afghanistan With H.R. McMaster And Janan Mosazai
interview with H. R. McMaster, Janan Mosazai via Uncommon Knowledge
H.R. McMaster and Janan Mosazai discuss the current state of Afghanistan, it’s position in the Middle East and Asia, and the path forward for the country.

Fighting To Leave: The Devolution Of The American War Aims In Afghanistan
by Bing West via Military History in the News
In early winter of 2001, an invading force of fewer than 10,000 American soldiers, Marines, Special Forces, and CIA operatives stampeded the Taliban and al-Qaeda forces across Afghanistan. A punitive campaign of historic brevity and one-sided casualties was about to end. Then our most senior officials made two disastrous decisions. First, General Tommy Franks, the commander of the invasion, refused to employ American forces to seal off the al-Qaeda remnants, including Osama bin Laden, hiding in the Tora Bora mountains. Instead, General Franks handed the fight over to unreliable Afghan warlords, who let bin Laden and al-Qaeda escape into Afghanistan.

Trump Picks Former CENTCOM Commander For Ambassador To Saudi Arabia
featuring John Abizaid via Military Times
A retired four-star general is President Donald Trump’s pick to be U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, filling a key diplomatic vacancy at a time when U.S.-Saudi relations are being tested by the slaying of a journalist critical of the Saudi royal family.

Why victory isn't the goal in Afghanistan
(Washington Examiner) When Lt. Gen. David Petraeus returned from an inspection tour of Afghanistan in 2005 to brief then Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, he began with a simple image.

ISRAEL, HAMAS & WAR CONTINUES, COALITION BREAKS WITHOUT ELECTIONS

11/15/2018

A seismic shift is happening in the Middle East
BY NORMAN BAILEY
The chaos of the region makes predictions difficult but Israel could become a key strategic ally for Gulf states

The Israeli Security Concept: Wandering Through a Maze

Lieberman's Resignation and Rabin's "Peace Legacy"

Israeli defense minister resigns over Hamas cease-fire
Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman resigned from his post today and said his Yisrael Beitenu party was leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling coalition in protest over Tuesday's cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. Liberman argued that the cease-fire “cannot be interpreted in any way other than a surrender to terror,” adding that it “will severely harm our security in the long term.” The Israeli military declared a “return to normalcy” in southern Israel on Tuesday after Egypt and the United Nations mediated the cease-fire.
The latest spat of cross-border violence was the largest since the siege of the Gaza Strip began, with 460 rockets and mortar shells bombarding southern Israel, prompting the Israeli military to retaliate by striking 160 targets in the strip. Israeli residents of border communities are blocking Gaza’s Kerem Shalom commercial crossing and burning tires to protest the security situation.
Read More

Massive Missile Attack on Israel after Qatar Funds Hamas

Egypt has mediated a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, according to Hamas officials, as an intense exchange of fire between the two sides halted Tuesday amid hopes that a wider war between them could be averted. – Wall Street Journal

An Israeli military victory in Gaza is a loss for Israel because it would either have to rule the enclave or risk a more radicalized group like ISIS taking over, former US negotiator Dennis. Ross told The Jerusalem Post, adding that an extended period of calm at this point is the best outcome for both Israel and Hamas. – Jerusalem Post

Hamas “begged” for a cease-fire, and “they know very well why,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday morning, in his first public statements since the government agreed to a cease-fire in the South that went into effect on Tuesday evening. – Jerusalem Post

Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman on Wednesday announced a special faction meeting of his Yisrael Beytenu party at noon, after which he is expected to deliver a statement to the media, sparking rumors he could resign over the reported ceasefire with Hamas. – Times of Israel

Netanyahu scrambles to save his coalition
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets today with Education Minister Naftali Bennett, the head of the hard-line Jewish Home party, in an effort to salvage his right-wing coalition amid a backlash to the cease-fire with Hamas. Netanyahu's coalition has only a one-seat majority in the Knesset after Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman resigned earlier this week. Jewish Home is threatening to leave the coalition unless Bennett is appointed defense minister.
Meanwhile, hundreds of Israelis living in southern border communities demonstrated in Tel Aviv on Thursday against the record number of rockets fired from the Gaza Strip earlier this week. Palestinians have been mounting their own protests at the Gaza border fence every Friday for the past several months. Read More 

Israeli PM says calling snap polls would be ‘irresponsible’
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
Benjamin Netanyahu vows to push on despite coalition crisis

EGYPT, SUDAN BEGIN MENDING TIES & MATTIS GETS US POLICY CHANGE IN YEMENI CIVIL WAR

11/12/2018

Sudan, Egypt mend fraying ties
Sudan decided to lift the ban imposed on Egyptian imports more than a year ago, which raises questions about the impact of this decision on the Egyptian economy in the coming period.

US stops refuelling of Saudi-led coalition aircraft in Yemen war
(The Guardian) The U.S. is halting refueling of aircraft from the Saudi-led coalition engaged in Yemen, ending one of the most divisive aspects of U.S. assistance to the Saudi war effort.

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FRAGILITY & FAILURE
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CIVILIAN LED APPROACH: THE LONG WAR
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US: THE LONG WAR GAME
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