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GLOBAL strike MEDIA
u.s. central command
centcom & The long war

IRANIAN REGIME ON BRINK & SAUDI'S ON DEFENSIVE

12/30/2017

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The Middle East's Next War
Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer warned that news of US-led coalition forces reclaiming the Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State this summer did not mean that peace was finally coming to the Middle East. On the contrary, he argued, the region is barreling toward a violent hegemonic power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
CFR:  COUNCIL FOREIGN RELATIONS
Saudi diplomacy goes on defensive
Saudi Arabia could live to regret its warm ties with US President Donald Trump as his foreign policy threatens to undermine its longstanding position as the defender of Muslims and the Islamic world.
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ISLAMABAD SEEKS TO CO-OP JIHADI AMBITION:  OFFERING APPEAL OF POLITICAL PARTY AFFILIATION

12/29/2017

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Pakistan’s political weather? Prospects poor for moderates
BY FM SHAKIL
The country faces a general election in July with extremists poised to gain ground
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ASSAD GIVES I.S. IMPUNITY TO ACT IN SYRIA

12/29/2017

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US-led coalition says Syria regime allows IS to move ‘with impunity
​’
The US-led coalition fighting the Islamic State (IS) accused Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces on Wednesday of allowing the militant group’s fighters to move through regime-held territories “with impunity.” British Army Maj. Gen. Felix Gedney said the regime may not have the capabilities of defeating IS, or may be unwilling to do so. But this does not mean the coalition is willing to strike the militants in those areas. “We will continue to deconflict with the Russians, but we have got no intention to operate in areas that are currently held by the regime,” Gedney said. In a separate statement, the coalition said on Wednesday that less than 1,000 IS fighters remain in Iraq and Syria.  Read More  
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SHIA SUICIDE BOMBER HITS AFGHAN MOSQUE, THE AFRICAN HORN HIT AGAIN BY AFRICOM & IRAKI'S ALI-SISTANI SPEAKS ABOUT MILITIA'S AND FEDERALISM

12/29/2017

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Islamic State’s Khorasan ‘province’ claims responsibility for attack on cultural center in Kabul
Dozens of civilians were killed during a bombing at the Tabayan cultural center in Kabul, Afghanistan earlier today. The Islamic State's Khorasan "province," which regularly targets Shiite civilians and places of worship in Afghanistan, quickly claimed responsibility. 

Top Iraqi-Shiite cleric endorses incorporation of PMF into the state
Iraqi-Shiite Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani announced his support of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and "requested that all weapons come under government's control."

US targets Shabaab fighters, car bomb
At least 17 Shabaab fighters were killed and a suicide car bomb was destroyed in two strikes that have taken place in Somalia over the past four days.
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IRAN FRACTURING DOMESTICALLY, FRAGILE REGIME

12/28/2017

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CIPHER BRIEF
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INDIA VS. PAKISTAN:  WHO WINS & HOW

12/28/2017

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DEFENSE ONE
PAKISTAN RADICALIZES ITSELF AGAIN
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WHY MENACHEM BEGIN MATTERS & SAUDI - ISRAELI TIES REVEALS A NEW FULCRUM IN MIDDLE EAST

12/27/2017

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The New Fulcrum of the Middle East
Joschka Fischer suspects that an emerging Saudi-Israeli alliance will soon drive most regional developments.
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IRANIAN DEPT. OF DEFENSE:  INSIDE LOOK & THE IRANIAN OBJECTIVE OF ENCIRCLING THE HOUSE OF SAUD

12/27/2017

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  • WINEP’s Michael Eisenstadt on Iran’s military procurement
THE NATURE OF THE HOUTHI THREAT TO SAUDI ARABIA
The tide is turning against the al Houthi movement in Yemen as the Saudi-led coalition expands the Yemeni factions with which it has partnered on the ground. Critical Threats Project analyst Maher Farrukh lays out these shifting trends in his most recent situation report, but warns that the political crisis that caused the civil war remains unresolved. The al Houthis are unlikely to be defeated militarily, even with the broadened coalition, and retain the ability to threaten Saudi Arabia, as this week's ballistic missile attack on Riyadh shows. The sudden shift of support away from the al Houthi movement does also require the Iranian regime to decide how much it is willing and able to invest in the al Houthi movement in Yemen.
​Some relevant readings on Yemen:
  • President Saleh is Dead. What's Next for Yemen?
  • Yemen Frontlines: December 2017
  • Yemen: National Chaos, Local Order
  • Addressing Security Sector Reform in Yemen. Challenges and Opportunities for Intervention During and Post-Conflict
  • The Houthis' endgame in Yemen
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U.S. KILLS AFGHAN TALIBAN INSIDE PAKISTAN & BEIJING COMPLICATES WASHINGTON'S STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN

12/27/2017

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Turning the Corner in Afghanistan 
By Robert Mihara, Strategy Bridge: “Proponents of the open-ended commitments to Afghanistan have long misrepresented the governance and security issues in Afghanistan as merely technical, albeit complicated, and overstated the ability of American means to remedy such issues.”
U.S., AFGHANISTAN: 
U.S. Service Member Killed, 4 Others Injured In Afghanistan 'Combat Engagement'

By Merrit Kennedy, NPR: “A U.S. service member was killed in a "combat engagement" in Afghanistan's Nangarhar province on New Year's Day, and four other U.S. service members were injured, according to a U.S. military statement.”
US kills Afghan Taliban commander in drone strike inside Pakistan
Jamiuddin, was a "trusted man" within the Haqqani Network, a subgroup of the Afghan Taliban, who helped fighters move from Pakistan to Afghanistan.
U.S., AFGHANISTAN: 
U.S. Kills Afghan Taliban Commander in Drone Strike Inside Pakistan

By Bill Roggio, FDD's The Long War Journal: “The U.S. killed an Afghan Taliban leader in a drone strike in Pakistan’s tribal agency of Kurram today, according to reports from the region. The commander, Jamiuddin, was a “trusted man” within the Haqqani Network, a subgroup of the Afghan Taliban, who helped fighters move from Pakistan to Afghanistan.”

Beijing complicates Washington’s Afghan strategy
BY MK BHADRAKUMAR
A trilateral dialogue has 'reaffirmed a commitment' to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan

ISIS numbers growing fast near China’s New Silk Road, says Russia
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
Moscow ready to work with Washington on Afghanistan, amid talk of covert US support for terror
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THE SAUDI SHAKEDOWN

12/27/2017

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Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to take from the rich and give to the state. The kingdom plans to inject billions of dollars it recovers from a sweeping corruption probe into its state budget, its finance minister said, as it rolls out an expensive plan to reshape its oil-dependent economy. - Wall Street Journal
Saudi Arabia is preparing for the biggest budget in its history, announcing Tuesday record expenditures of 978 billion riyals ($261 billion) this coming fiscal year as the government forecasts a boost in revenue from the introduction of a sales tax, plans to further reduce subsidies and a modest rise in oil prices. - Associated Press
Saudi Arabia releases dozens of corruption detainees
Saudi Arabia released 23 power brokers detained since November as part of an anti-corruption crackdown, Okaz newspaper said on Tuesday. The individuals, who were not identified, reportedly reached deals with the government in what seemed to be the first large-scale release since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman launched the crackdown that ensnared at least 200 powerful individuals. More detainees are expected to be freed in the next few days, while others who reject the charges against them will soon stand trial. Read More  

Saudi princes freed from detention in corruption purge 
Saudi authorities released two sons of late King Abdullah who have been detained at Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton hotel since November as part of an anti-corruption crackdown, a royal family member tweeted on Thursday. Prince Meshaal bin Abdullah and Prince Faisal bin Abdullah reached financial deals with the government. Dozens of power brokers were also released earlier this week. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman launched a crackdown in early November that ensnared at least 200 powerful individuals.  Read More  ​
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TRUMP RETURNS JIHAD TO INTELLIGENCE

12/26/2017

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MEF
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HOW GOOD ARE AFGHAN MILITIAS

12/26/2017

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Assessment on the Revised Use of Afghan Militias
By Suzanne Schroeder, Divergent Options: “A new plan is under consideration by the Afghan Government to transform the Afghan Local Police into an Afghan Territorial Army.” ​
U.S., AFGHANISTAN: 
U.S. Touts Afghanistan Special-Operations Raids in Rare Detail
By Anthony Capaccio, Bloomberg: “The Pentagon has disclosed the extent of raids by U.S. special operations forces in Afghanistan for the first time in years, as the Trump administration boasts of a more aggressive effort against militant groups including the Taliban, the Haqqani network and Islamic State.”

U.S., AFGHANISTAN: Two 4th ID Brigades Headed to Afghanistan This Spring
By Brendan McGarry, Military.com: “In separate releases, the service identified the deploying units as the 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division; and the 2nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division. Both brigades are based at Fort Carson, Colorado.”
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TALIBAN CAPTURE INTELL CENTER KABUL

12/18/2017

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AFGHANISTAN: Taliban Seize Afghan Intelligence Training Center in Kabul 
By Rahim Faiez & Amir Shah, AP: “Gunmen in Afghanistan stormed a partially constructed building near an intelligence training center on Monday in western Kabul, triggering a gunbattle with security forces as detonations and shooting reverberated from the area.”
Still Missing in Action: U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan 
By Benjamin Schreer, The Strategist (ASPI): “ ... the U.S., as the lead nation in the Afghanistan intervention, also wasted major opportunities to potentially achieve lasting success, to degrade the insurgency and to help build sustainable political structures.”
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THE STATE OF PLAY IN LIBYA

12/18/2017

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Libyan strongman declares UN-backed government obsolete 
Libyan strongman Khalifa Hifter on Sunday declared that the term of the UN-backed government in Tripoli has expired, rendering it obsolete. Speaking at a military graduation ceremony, the eastern-based military commander also hinted at the possibility of running in elections expected next year. Hifter leads the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army, a rival power source to the government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj.  Read More  ​
Foreign Fighters and Mercenaries Fueling Libyan Conflict 
By Joseph Hammond, RealClearDefense: ““After six years of war there are only so many Libyans who are motivated to fight for the root political causes at the heart of this conflict.””
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MOSCOW MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE EAST

12/18/2017

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RUSSIAN GOALS GO BEYOND DAMASCUS
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THE SAUDI'S PLUNDER THEIR KINGDOM & RIYADH LOOKS AT JEWISH RELATIONS IN JERUSALEM

12/18/2017

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Mohammed bin Salman Doesn't Want to Talk About Jerusalem
December 14, 2017
The Merits—and the Limits—of Democracy Promotion in the Middle East
December 13, 2017
The Middle East through Gulf Eyes: Trip Report from Riyadh, Muscat, and Abu Dhabi
December 12, 2017
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IRAN DIGS IN FOR DAMASCUS & ROCKET THREATS ON FOR ISRAEL

12/18/2017

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IS TUNISIA A SUCCESS STORY:  THE RETURN OF THE ARAB SPRING

12/15/2017

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THE CIPHER BRIEF
Tunisia's Ennahda struggles to shake political Islam identity
The announcement of a Saudi-led bloc’s new terrorist list that includes the International Union of Muslim Scholars has tongues wagging about the failure of Tunisia’s Ennahda movement to break free from political Islam.
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F22 RAPTORS CHASE RUSSIANS OUT OF SYRIA

12/15/2017

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U.S., RUSSIA, SYRIA: F-22 Raptors Chase Russian Su-25s Out of Syrian Airspace 
By Jamie McIntyre, Washington Examiner: “A pair of U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor stealth fighters fired flares to chase two Russian Su-25 fighter jets out of restricted airspace over Syria on Wednesday, a Pentagon official confirmed Thursday.”
  • Amb. Eric Edelman and WINEP’s James Jeffrey on U.S. strategy in Middle East
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SAUDI REFORM BEGINS:  HOW THE HOUSE OF SAUD SEEKS RENEWAL

12/14/2017

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ELLIOT ABRAMS:  ABBAS & JERUSALEM
LONG HISTORY ABOUT HYPOCRISY ABOUT JERUSALEM
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CHINA RETHINKS ITS COMMITMENT TO PAKISTAN & HOW ISLAMABAD'S OPAQUE CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS STOKES SOCIAL DISCONTENT

12/14/2017

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Belt and Road U-turn: China rethinks several Pakistani projects
BY F.M. SHAKIL
A number of road, mass-transit and industrial zone projects have been taken off the table. Security, geopolitics, corruption and political chaos may all be factors.

Pakistan’s Military: The Fire Brigade and the Arsonist? 
By Bennett Seftel, The Cipher Brief: “Tensions that mounted during a deadly, Islamist protest in Pakistan last month were resolved not by the country’s civilian government, but by leaders of its military and intelligence agency. The incident was another reminder of who really holds the reins in a tumultuous nation that the U.S. has leaned on to help defeat terrorist adversaries and bring stability to Afghanistan. This reality has serious consequences for U.S. policymakers engaging with Pakistan.”
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STATE DEPARTMENT PUSHES HARD AGAINST TRUMP'S ISRAELI CAPITAL MOVE

12/14/2017

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NYSUN 
White House: Abbas’s Rhetoric “Has Prevented Peace for Years”
Expert: To Prevent Next Israel-Hezbollah War, World Must Enforce Resolution 1701
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THE ISLAMIC STATE THRIVES IN LIBYA:  60 SECOND VIDEO & TURKEY THREATENS ISRAEL

12/13/2017

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ISIS in Libya
Emily Estelle | AEI video

EMILY ESTELLE AEI
Below are the takeaways from the week:
  1. Yemeni military forces that had been loyal to the late former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh switched sides to join a Saudi-led coalition offensive in western Yemen. The Emirati-backed operation aims to seize al Hudaydah port in order to encircle Sana’a and compel the al Houthi movement to surrender. The fracturing of the al Houthi-Saleh block will enable the Saudi-led coalition to make gains along the western coastline. These gains, including the seizure of al Hudaydah port, will not be sufficient to collapse the al Houthi movement in Yemen’s capital, Sana’a. The breakup of Saleh’s network will also destabilize northern Yemen, as factions split over support for the al Houthi movement and vie to position themselves in the post-Saleh era. [Read Katherine Zimmerman and Maher Farrukh’s assessment and forecast following Saleh’s death, “President Saleh is Dead. What's Next for Yemen?.”]
  2. Renewed civil war is growing more likely in Libya as preparations for presidential and parliamentary elections begin. Supporters of would-be strongman Khalifa Haftar vandalized polling stations, foreshadowing Haftar’s role in a possible military challenge to Libya’s democratic transition if a peace agreement is not reached. [Read Emily Estelle’s report, “The General's Trap in Libya.”]
See our maps from the past week online.
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RUSSIA TO BUILD SAUDI, EGYPTIAN NUCLEAR POWER & ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTER SPEAKS OUT ABOUT REGIONAL DYNAMICS

12/13/2017

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 Russia to build Egypt’s first nuclear plant
Egypt and Russia reached a final deal on Monday for the construction of a nuclear power plant on the Mediterranean coast during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s trip to Cairo. The plant in Dabaa, which will be the first in the country, is expected to cost about $30 billion. During talks with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Putin also agreed to restore civilian flights to Egypt. Moscow suspended flights after militants bombed a Russian tourist jet over the Sinai Peninsula in 2015.  Read More  
Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman: To properly understand the region’s dynamics and to effectively address the threats to its security, one needs to set aside outdated modes of thinking and realize that many of the traditional sectarian divisions have become blurred. - Defense News
THE COLLAPSE OF ARAB REGIONAL POWER
Opinion: Whatever you think of President Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, it points to the most important strategic reality in the Middle East: Arab power has collapsed in the face of low oil prices and competition from American frackers. - Wall Street Journal
Russia’s Military Boosted by Syria Campaign 
By Roger McDermott, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “The extent to which the military has capitalized on the Syria intervention is evident in its use as a large-scale training opportunity for commanders; moreover, the lessons being drawn from the campaign are shaping the new Russian armaments program. ​
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GROUND ZERO FOR THE ISLAMIC STATE:  NW FRONTIER & india - china begin a new great game

12/13/2017

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China and India sail into choppy waters in New Great Game
BY PEPE ESCOBAR
This shadow play is a heady vortex, churning with power projections, spheres of influence, security and commerce
Iran warns of new Islamic State caliphate 
Top Iranian officials are warning that the Islamic State (IS) may conquer new lands as the group faces defeat in Iraq and Syria. Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, Iran's Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alawi said IS is now seeking to conquer territories in parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia in order to revive its self-declared caliphate. Afghanistan in particular has suffered increasingly deadly IS attacks over the past year.  Read More  ​
Analysis: Now the gloves are off, and American warplanes have already dropped more than 3,900 bombs and missiles against targets in Afghanistan this year, three times as many as last year. - New York Times

Analysis: President Ashraf Ghani looks set to mobilize a new 20,000-strong militia to fight the Taliban in Afghanistan. The story of militias loyal to his former running mate and current vice-president, Abdul Rashid Dostum, should give him pause. Many of Dostum’s former commanders, who were armed to fight the Taliban, are now joining both the Islamic State and the Taliban. - War on the Rocks

Analysis: There were clear signs that Pakistan has made progress in countering terrorism in North Waziristan, but also good reason to believe that a less positive picture lay beyond the small area I saw. - War on the Rocks
Analysis: With the vote still eight months away, preparations have become poisoned by charges of political manipulation, ethnic bias, technical incompetence and endless delay. If the election falls apart, many Afghans fear that both the viability of their new democracy and the confidence of their international supporters will be in jeopardy. - Washington Post
​

Analysis: Over the past year, as Afghanistan’s strained power-sharing government struggled in the face of intense criticism, Western officials repeatedly stepped in to urge patience. - New York Times
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