CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR - CounterStrikeMedia

IRANIAN REGIME ON BRINK & SAUDI'S ON DEFENSIVE

12/30/2017

The Middle East's Next War
Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer warned that news of US-led coalition forces reclaiming the Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State this summer did not mean that peace was finally coming to the Middle East. On the contrary, he argued, the region is barreling toward a violent hegemonic power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

CFR: COUNCIL FOREIGN RELATIONS

Saudi diplomacy goes on defensive
Saudi Arabia could live to regret its warm ties with US President Donald Trump as his foreign policy threatens to undermine its longstanding position as the defender of Muslims and the Islamic world.

ISLAMABAD SEEKS TO CO-OP JIHADI AMBITION: OFFERING APPEAL OF POLITICAL PARTY AFFILIATION

12/29/2017

Pakistan’s political weather? Prospects poor for moderates
BY FM SHAKIL
The country faces a general election in July with extremists poised to gain ground

ASSAD GIVES I.S. IMPUNITY TO ACT IN SYRIA

12/29/2017

US-led coalition says Syria regime allows IS to move ‘with impunity
’The US-led coalition fighting the Islamic State (IS) accused Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces on Wednesday of allowing the militant group’s fighters to move through regime-held territories “with impunity.” British Army Maj. Gen. Felix Gedney said the regime may not have the capabilities of defeating IS, or may be unwilling to do so. But this does not mean the coalition is willing to strike the militants in those areas. “We will continue to deconflict with the Russians, but we have got no intention to operate in areas that are currently held by the regime,” Gedney said. In a separate statement, the coalition said on Wednesday that less than 1,000 IS fighters remain in Iraq and Syria. Read More

SHIA SUICIDE BOMBER HITS AFGHAN MOSQUE, THE AFRICAN HORN HIT AGAIN BY AFRICOM & IRAKI'S ALI-SISTANI SPEAKS ABOUT MILITIA'S AND FEDERALISM

12/29/2017

Islamic State’s Khorasan ‘province’ claims responsibility for attack on cultural center in Kabul
Dozens of civilians were killed during a bombing at the Tabayan cultural center in Kabul, Afghanistan earlier today. The Islamic State's Khorasan "province," which regularly targets Shiite civilians and places of worship in Afghanistan, quickly claimed responsibility.

Top Iraqi-Shiite cleric endorses incorporation of PMF into the state
Iraqi-Shiite Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani announced his support of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and "requested that all weapons come under government's control."

US targets Shabaab fighters, car bomb
At least 17 Shabaab fighters were killed and a suicide car bomb was destroyed in two strikes that have taken place in Somalia over the past four days.

IRAN FRACTURING DOMESTICALLY, FRAGILE REGIME

12/28/2017

CIPHER BRIEF

INDIA VS. PAKISTAN: WHO WINS & HOW

12/28/2017

DEFENSE ONE

PAKISTAN RADICALIZES ITSELF AGAIN

WHY MENACHEM BEGIN MATTERS & SAUDI - ISRAELI TIES REVEALS A NEW FULCRUM IN MIDDLE EAST

12/27/2017

The New Fulcrum of the Middle East
Joschka Fischer suspects that an emerging Saudi-Israeli alliance will soon drive most regional developments.

IRANIAN DEPT. OF DEFENSE: INSIDE LOOK & THE IRANIAN OBJECTIVE OF ENCIRCLING THE HOUSE OF SAUD

12/27/2017

WINEP’s Michael Eisenstadt on Iran’s military procurement

THE NATURE OF THE HOUTHI THREAT TO SAUDI ARABIA

The tide is turning against the al Houthi movement in Yemen as the Saudi-led coalition expands the Yemeni factions with which it has partnered on the ground. Critical Threats Project analyst Maher Farrukh lays out these shifting trends in his most recent situation report, but warns that the political crisis that caused the civil war remains unresolved. The al Houthis are unlikely to be defeated militarily, even with the broadened coalition, and retain the ability to threaten Saudi Arabia, as this week's ballistic missile attack on Riyadh shows. The sudden shift of support away from the al Houthi movement does also require the Iranian regime to decide how much it is willing and able to invest in the al Houthi movement in Yemen.
Some relevant readings on Yemen:

U.S. KILLS AFGHAN TALIBAN INSIDE PAKISTAN & BEIJING COMPLICATES WASHINGTON'S STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN

12/27/2017

Turning the Corner in Afghanistan
By Robert Mihara, Strategy Bridge: “Proponents of the open-ended commitments to Afghanistan have long misrepresented the governance and security issues in Afghanistan as merely technical, albeit complicated, and overstated the ability of American means to remedy such issues.”

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
U.S. Service Member Killed, 4 Others Injured In Afghanistan 'Combat Engagement'
By Merrit Kennedy, NPR: “A U.S. service member was killed in a "combat engagement" in Afghanistan's Nangarhar province on New Year's Day, and four other U.S. service members were injured, according to a U.S. military statement.”

US kills Afghan Taliban commander in drone strike inside Pakistan
Jamiuddin, was a "trusted man" within the Haqqani Network, a subgroup of the Afghan Taliban, who helped fighters move from Pakistan to Afghanistan.

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
U.S. Kills Afghan Taliban Commander in Drone Strike Inside Pakistan
By Bill Roggio, FDD's The Long War Journal: “The U.S. killed an Afghan Taliban leader in a drone strike in Pakistan’s tribal agency of Kurram today, according to reports from the region. The commander, Jamiuddin, was a “trusted man” within the Haqqani Network, a subgroup of the Afghan Taliban, who helped fighters move from Pakistan to Afghanistan.”

Beijing complicates Washington’s Afghan strategy
BY MK BHADRAKUMAR
A trilateral dialogue has 'reaffirmed a commitment' to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan

ISIS numbers growing fast near China’s New Silk Road, says Russia
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
Moscow ready to work with Washington on Afghanistan, amid talk of covert US support for terror

THE SAUDI SHAKEDOWN

12/27/2017

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to take from the rich and give to the state. The kingdom plans to inject billions of dollars it recovers from a sweeping corruption probe into its state budget, its finance minister said, as it rolls out an expensive plan to reshape its oil-dependent economy. - Wall Street Journal

Saudi Arabia is preparing for the biggest budget in its history, announcing Tuesday record expenditures of 978 billion riyals ($261 billion) this coming fiscal year as the government forecasts a boost in revenue from the introduction of a sales tax, plans to further reduce subsidies and a modest rise in oil prices. - Associated Press

Saudi Arabia releases dozens of corruption detainees
Saudi Arabia released 23 power brokers detained since November as part of an anti-corruption crackdown, Okaz newspaper said on Tuesday. The individuals, who were not identified, reportedly reached deals with the government in what seemed to be the first large-scale release since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman launched the crackdown that ensnared at least 200 powerful individuals. More detainees are expected to be freed in the next few days, while others who reject the charges against them will soon stand trial. Read More

Saudi princes freed from detention in corruption purge
Saudi authorities released two sons of late King Abdullah who have been detained at Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton hotel since November as part of an anti-corruption crackdown, a royal family member tweeted on Thursday. Prince Meshaal bin Abdullah and Prince Faisal bin Abdullah reached financial deals with the government. Dozens of power brokers were also released earlier this week. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman launched a crackdown in early November that ensnared at least 200 powerful individuals. Read More

TRUMP RETURNS JIHAD TO INTELLIGENCE

12/26/2017

MEF

HOW GOOD ARE AFGHAN MILITIAS

12/26/2017

Assessment on the Revised Use of Afghan Militias
By Suzanne Schroeder, Divergent Options: “A new plan is under consideration by the Afghan Government to transform the Afghan Local Police into an Afghan Territorial Army.”

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
U.S. Touts Afghanistan Special-Operations Raids in Rare Detail
By Anthony Capaccio, Bloomberg: “The Pentagon has disclosed the extent of raids by U.S. special operations forces in Afghanistan for the first time in years, as the Trump administration boasts of a more aggressive effort against militant groups including the Taliban, the Haqqani network and Islamic State.”

U.S., AFGHANISTAN: Two 4th ID Brigades Headed to Afghanistan This Spring
By Brendan McGarry, Military.com: “In separate releases, the service identified the deploying units as the 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division; and the 2nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division. Both brigades are based at Fort Carson, Colorado.”

TALIBAN CAPTURE INTELL CENTER KABUL

12/18/2017

AFGHANISTAN: Taliban Seize Afghan Intelligence Training Center in Kabul
By Rahim Faiez & Amir Shah, AP: “Gunmen in Afghanistan stormed a partially constructed building near an intelligence training center on Monday in western Kabul, triggering a gunbattle with security forces as detonations and shooting reverberated from the area.”

Still Missing in Action: U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan
By Benjamin Schreer, The Strategist (ASPI): “ ... the U.S., as the lead nation in the Afghanistan intervention, also wasted major opportunities to potentially achieve lasting success, to degrade the insurgency and to help build sustainable political structures.”

THE STATE OF PLAY IN LIBYA

12/18/2017

Libyan strongman declares UN-backed government obsolete
Libyan strongman Khalifa Hifter on Sunday declared that the term of the UN-backed government in Tripoli has expired, rendering it obsolete. Speaking at a military graduation ceremony, the eastern-based military commander also hinted at the possibility of running in elections expected next year. Hifter leads the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army, a rival power source to the government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. Read More

Foreign Fighters and Mercenaries Fueling Libyan Conflict
By Joseph Hammond, RealClearDefense: ““After six years of war there are only so many Libyans who are motivated to fight for the root political causes at the heart of this conflict.””

MOSCOW MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE EAST

12/18/2017

RUSSIAN GOALS GO BEYOND DAMASCUS

THE SAUDI'S PLUNDER THEIR KINGDOM & RIYADH LOOKS AT JEWISH RELATIONS IN JERUSALEM

12/18/2017

Mohammed bin Salman Doesn't Want to Talk About Jerusalem
December 14, 2017
The Merits—and the Limits—of Democracy Promotion in the Middle East
December 13, 2017
The Middle East through Gulf Eyes: Trip Report from Riyadh, Muscat, and Abu Dhabi
December 12, 2017

IRAN DIGS IN FOR DAMASCUS & ROCKET THREATS ON FOR ISRAEL

12/18/2017

IS TUNISIA A SUCCESS STORY: THE RETURN OF THE ARAB SPRING

12/15/2017

THE CIPHER BRIEF

Tunisia's Ennahda struggles to shake political Islam identity
The announcement of a Saudi-led bloc’s new terrorist list that includes the International Union of Muslim Scholars has tongues wagging about the failure of Tunisia’s Ennahda movement to break free from political Islam.

F22 RAPTORS CHASE RUSSIANS OUT OF SYRIA

12/15/2017

U.S., RUSSIA, SYRIA: F-22 Raptors Chase Russian Su-25s Out of Syrian Airspace
By Jamie McIntyre, Washington Examiner: “A pair of U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor stealth fighters fired flares to chase two Russian Su-25 fighter jets out of restricted airspace over Syria on Wednesday, a Pentagon official confirmed Thursday.”

Amb. Eric Edelman and WINEP’s James Jeffrey on U.S. strategy in Middle East

SAUDI REFORM BEGINS: HOW THE HOUSE OF SAUD SEEKS RENEWAL

12/14/2017

ELLIOT ABRAMS: ABBAS & JERUSALEM

LONG HISTORY ABOUT HYPOCRISY ABOUT JERUSALEM

CHINA RETHINKS ITS COMMITMENT TO PAKISTAN & HOW ISLAMABAD'S OPAQUE CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS STOKES SOCIAL DISCONTENT

12/14/2017

Belt and Road U-turn: China rethinks several Pakistani projects
BY F.M. SHAKIL
A number of road, mass-transit and industrial zone projects have been taken off the table. Security, geopolitics, corruption and political chaos may all be factors.

Pakistan’s Military: The Fire Brigade and the Arsonist?
By Bennett Seftel, The Cipher Brief: “Tensions that mounted during a deadly, Islamist protest in Pakistan last month were resolved not by the country’s civilian government, but by leaders of its military and intelligence agency. The incident was another reminder of who really holds the reins in a tumultuous nation that the U.S. has leaned on to help defeat terrorist adversaries and bring stability to Afghanistan. This reality has serious consequences for U.S. policymakers engaging with Pakistan.”

STATE DEPARTMENT PUSHES HARD AGAINST TRUMP'S ISRAELI CAPITAL MOVE

12/14/2017

NYSUN

White House: Abbas’s Rhetoric “Has Prevented Peace for Years”

Expert: To Prevent Next Israel-Hezbollah War, World Must Enforce Resolution 1701

THE ISLAMIC STATE THRIVES IN LIBYA: 60 SECOND VIDEO & TURKEY THREATENS ISRAEL

12/13/2017

ISIS in Libya
Emily Estelle | AEI video

EMILY ESTELLE AEI

Below are the takeaways from the week:

Yemeni military forces that had been loyal to the late former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh switched sides to join a Saudi-led coalition offensive in western Yemen. The Emirati-backed operation aims to seize al Hudaydah port in order to encircle Sana’a and compel the al Houthi movement to surrender. The fracturing of the al Houthi-Saleh block will enable the Saudi-led coalition to make gains along the western coastline. These gains, including the seizure of al Hudaydah port, will not be sufficient to collapse the al Houthi movement in Yemen’s capital, Sana’a. The breakup of Saleh’s network will also destabilize northern Yemen, as factions split over support for the al Houthi movement and vie to position themselves in the post-Saleh era. [Read Katherine Zimmerman and Maher Farrukh’s assessment and forecast following Saleh’s death, “President Saleh is Dead. What's Next for Yemen?.”]
Renewed civil war is growing more likely in Libya as preparations for presidential and parliamentary elections begin. Supporters of would-be strongman Khalifa Haftar vandalized polling stations, foreshadowing Haftar’s role in a possible military challenge to Libya’s democratic transition if a peace agreement is not reached. [Read Emily Estelle’s report, “The General's Trap in Libya.”]

See our maps from the past week online.

RUSSIA TO BUILD SAUDI, EGYPTIAN NUCLEAR POWER & ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTER SPEAKS OUT ABOUT REGIONAL DYNAMICS

12/13/2017

Russia to build Egypt’s first nuclear plant
Egypt and Russia reached a final deal on Monday for the construction of a nuclear power plant on the Mediterranean coast during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s trip to Cairo. The plant in Dabaa, which will be the first in the country, is expected to cost about $30 billion. During talks with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Putin also agreed to restore civilian flights to Egypt. Moscow suspended flights after militants bombed a Russian tourist jet over the Sinai Peninsula in 2015. Read More

Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman: To properly understand the region’s dynamics and to effectively address the threats to its security, one needs to set aside outdated modes of thinking and realize that many of the traditional sectarian divisions have become blurred. - Defense News

THE COLLAPSE OF ARAB REGIONAL POWER
Opinion: Whatever you think of President Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, it points to the most important strategic reality in the Middle East: Arab power has collapsed in the face of low oil prices and competition from American frackers. - Wall Street Journal

Russia’s Military Boosted by Syria Campaign
By Roger McDermott, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “The extent to which the military has capitalized on the Syria intervention is evident in its use as a large-scale training opportunity for commanders; moreover, the lessons being drawn from the campaign are shaping the new Russian armaments program.

GROUND ZERO FOR THE ISLAMIC STATE: NW FRONTIER & india - china begin a new great game

12/13/2017

China and India sail into choppy waters in New Great Game
BY PEPE ESCOBAR
This shadow play is a heady vortex, churning with power projections, spheres of influence, security and commerce

Iran warns of new Islamic State caliphate
Top Iranian officials are warning that the Islamic State (IS) may conquer new lands as the group faces defeat in Iraq and Syria. Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, Iran's Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alawi said IS is now seeking to conquer territories in parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia in order to revive its self-declared caliphate. Afghanistan in particular has suffered increasingly deadly IS attacks over the past year. Read More

Analysis: Now the gloves are off, and American warplanes have already dropped more than 3,900 bombs and missiles against targets in Afghanistan this year, three times as many as last year. - New York Times

Analysis: President Ashraf Ghani looks set to mobilize a new 20,000-strong militia to fight the Taliban in Afghanistan. The story of militias loyal to his former running mate and current vice-president, Abdul Rashid Dostum, should give him pause. Many of Dostum’s former commanders, who were armed to fight the Taliban, are now joining both the Islamic State and the Taliban. - War on the Rocks

Analysis: There were clear signs that Pakistan has made progress in countering terrorism in North Waziristan, but also good reason to believe that a less positive picture lay beyond the small area I saw. - War on the Rocks

Analysis: With the vote still eight months away, preparations have become poisoned by charges of political manipulation, ethnic bias, technical incompetence and endless delay. If the election falls apart, many Afghans fear that both the viability of their new democracy and the confidence of their international supporters will be in jeopardy. - Washington Post

Analysis: Over the past year, as Afghanistan’s strained power-sharing government struggled in the face of intense criticism, Western officials repeatedly stepped in to urge patience. - New York Times

HOW ISRAEL WINS: DANIEL PIPES
File Size:	855 kb
File Type:	pdf

prism_9-1.pdf
File Size:	8134 kb
File Type:	pdf

FRAGILITY & FAILURE
File Size:	3456 kb
File Type:	pdf

CIVILIAN LED APPROACH: THE LONG WAR
File Size:	806 kb
File Type:	pdf

US: THE LONG WAR GAME
File Size:	564 kb
File Type:	pdf

America's Anti-Colonial Wars Abroad
File Size:	616 kb
File Type:	pdf

RETHINKING EGYPT'S ECONOMY
File Size:	2736 kb
File Type:	pdf

EGYPT: CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS, ECONOMY
File Size:	53 kb
File Type:	pdf

national-identity_web-1.pdf
File Size:	1137 kb
File Type:	pdf

AFRICA'S POST COLONIAL ERA ENDING
File Size:	156 kb
File Type:	pdf

AFRICAN ARAB SPRING

AFRICAN ARAB SPRING
File Size:	786 kb
File Type:	pdf

ISHMAEL IS NOT FATHER OF ARABS

ISHMAEL NOT FATHER OF ARAB CIVILIZATION
File Size:	995 kb
File Type:	pdf

DEFEATING SECTARIANISM IN MIDDLE EAST

rand_rb10052.pdf
File Size:	856 kb
File Type:	pdf

SECULARISM, NATIONALISM, ISLAMISM: MAKING MODERN MIDDLE EAST
File Size:	95 kb
File Type:	pdf

terrorism-tactics-and-transformation.pdf
File Size:	1422 kb
File Type:	pdf

CHANGING DYNAMICS OF SALAFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS

FOREIGN AFFAIRS - THE ARAB SPRING @ 5
File Size:	15719 kb
File Type:	pdf

BIN SALMAN & THE REFORM OF SAUDI ARABIA
File Size:	83 kb
File Type:	pdf

NATIONAL INTEREST, ARAB SPRING
File Size:	207 kb
File Type:	pdf

FOLLOWING VISION 2030

HOOVER; ISLAMISM

MEF RADIO LIVE

SECTARIANISM MIDDLE EAST.pdf
File Size:	1462 kb
File Type:	pdf

THE PAKISTAN READER

ARAB SPRING & POLITICAL REFORM
File Size:	11836 kb
File Type:	pdf

ISRAELI NEWS NETWORK

THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM

250 YEARS OF AMERICAN IRREGULAR WAR

AEI - CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT: SALIFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS GROWING

ABBAS MILANI HOOVER PAGE: IRAN & U.S. RELATIONS

HOOVER INSTITUTION BLOG ON THE NEAR EAST

JEWISH INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY OF AMERICA

FATA PAKISTAN RESEARCH CENTER

ISRAELI NUCLEAR POSTURE & DOCTRINES

CONTAIN, DEGRADE, DEFEAT: PLAN FOR MIDDLE EAST

THE PLAN TO DEFEAT THE ISLAMIC STATE & al-QAEDA

CENTER FOR SECURITY, REGIONAL STUDIES, KABUL

AfPak POLICY OPTIONS

ISLAMISM & INTERNATIONAL ORDER

HOOVER INSTITUTION PUBLICATION ON U.S. NEAR EAST POLICY

Israeli Security & Gulf States

PRINCIPALS GUIDING US POLICY IN MIDDLE EAST

HOW ISRAEL WINS

FREE BOOKS ON MIDDLE EAST

AEI: GLOBAL JIHADI THREAT & BEYOND

HOOVER: OPERATIONAL GUIDE FOR THE LONG WAR

THE ETTINGER REPORT: U.S. ISRAELI RELATIONS

GOOGLE NEWS PAKISTAN

HOW TO WIN WORLD WAR IV

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE LONG WAR

Archives

September 2023
August 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
February 2022
January 2022
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
September 2015

Categories

WASH. INSTITUTE NEAR EAST POLICY

BROOKINGS

TAHRIR INSTITUTE MIDDLE EAST POLICY

MIDDLE EAST FORUM

BELFER CENTER

Tweets by WilliamHolland

Tweets by LongWarJournal