AL-QAEDA & IRAN: THE RELATIONSHIP & THE COLLAPSE OF IRAQ; 10 YEARS AFTER THE ARAB SPRING, A LOOK AT TUNISIA; BIBI'S PERFECT STORM BREWING

Iran builds at underground nuclear facility amid US tensions

Hoover Fellows Analyze Foreign Policy Challenges For Incoming Presidential Administration
via Hoover Daily Report
The Hoover Institution hosted a virtual online series featuring fellows’ analysis of the foreign policy challenges facing the incoming presidential administration.

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran’s calculation now is that dissidents won’t operate from Iraq or Turkey, and they likely will live in fear throughout Europe. This is laying the groundwork for Tehran’s next move, which will be more military escalation in the region and outreach to further bond itself with allies in Turkey and Russia, seeking to counterbalance the US and also work with China. – Jerusalem Post
​
Firas Elias writes: These proxy groups continue to demand the removal of U.S. forces from Iraq, and both Iraqis and regional U.S. allies will likely carefully observe how Biden will navigate this point of ongoing tension. For better or for worse, it is clear that any new steps that President-Elect Biden may take in his dealings with Iran will directly impact Iraq’s internal affairs as well. The same could be said for the other Arab countries in which Iran has attempted to create a foothold. – Washington Institute

Iran's Plan to Topple Arab Leaders  by Khaled Abu Toameh 

Net Assessment: 2020 Vision with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble   

Thinking in (Napoleonic) Times: Historical Warnings for an Era of Great-Power Competition 
by Alexandra Evans

Competition with China could be short and sharp
Michael Beckley and Hal Brands | Foreign Affairs

ow President-Elect Biden Can Reinvigorate Defense Innovation
By Trae Stephens & Steve Blank, Defense News: “The world is on the cusp of a new era of warfare dominated by unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, networked weapons and sensor fusion.” 

U.S. Should Strengthen Gulf State Partners,
Vital to Stability in the Middle East
By Michael J. Connor, RealClearDefense: “Last Wednesday, the Senate voted down legislation aimed at stopping the sale of advanced offensive weapons to the United Arab Emirates. Washington can and should do more. As Iran proliferates advanced long-range weaponry and its proxies launch short-range attacks, the incoming Biden administration should also emphasize strengthening the defenses of America's partners in the Gulf.”

Trump’s Iran Achievement
Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh — National Review
Among Donald Trump’s proudest achievements as president was his withdrawal of the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), his predecessor’s nuclear agreement with Iran. The boldest action of his presidency was his decision to kill Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force — the expeditionary, special-operations, terrorist branch of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — at the Baghdad airport. Read more

TURKEY'S GOALS IN LIBYA 
Aya Burweila on Turkey's Goals in Libya  by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
December 18, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61870/aya-burweila-on-turkey-goals-in-libya

IRAQ COLLAPSING READ MORE

GETTING CHINA POLICY RIGHT Derek Scissors testified that to actively improve American competitiveness with China requires a comprehensive strategy and costly implementation.  Staying ahead of a slipping, skittish China

  Bedfellows: Iran and Al Qaeda  by Majid Rafizadeh 

U.S. and Afghan forces target Al Qaeda in the south
​Despite the repeated targeting, killing, and capturing of Al Qaeda leaders and operatives, the Taliban maintains that the terror group does not operate in Afghanistan.

Ep. 35 – The Shadow War Inside Iran
​FDD senior fellow Behnam Ben Taleblu joins the podcast to discuss recent assassinations inside Iran and the state of the Iranian regime’s various proxy wars.

Africa File  tracking the developing situation in Ethiopia.
READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
Civil war is breaking out in Africa’s second largest country | Emily Estelle

Freedom’s Struggle In The Indo-Pacific
by Michael R. Auslin
With China increasingly dominant, nations seek their own paths between socialism and capitalism.

The last emir?: AQIM’s decline in the Sahel
Five months after the elimination of Abdel Malek Droukdel, aka Abu Musab Abdel Wadud, the leader of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), by the French army in the Malian city of Talhandak, AQIM appointed a new emir on Nov. 21. His name is Yazid Mebarek, aka Abu Ubayda Yusef al-Annabi, a 51-year-old Algerian and a jihad veteran.
Read article

Autumn 2020 Issue MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE

2020 Year in Review

Up for Debate: US Yemen policy
Now in its sixth year, the war in Yemen shows no signs of abating. The country faces what is widely considered the world's worst humanitarian crisis — a situation that has only been exacerbated by the global coronavirus pandemic. As a new administration prepares to take over in Washington, it is a natural time to assess U.S. policy toward the country. We asked 9 experts to provide their perspective and answer the following question: How should the Biden administration approach Yemen? 
View feature

Africa File 

Putting up a fight: Tunisia’s counterterrorism successes and failures
Francisco Serrano

The "Arab Spring" a Decade On
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar, December 17, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The 10 years of the so-called “Arab Spring”—the last of which is the year of COVID-19—have brought many Arab countries to the edge of the abyss. The worst may be yet to come if President-elect Joe Biden takes expected steps that would be in the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Continue to full article ->

10 years on, Tunisian emotions mixed in birthplace of Arab Spring
 Ten years after the first Arab Spring protests erupted in the central Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid, the locals are still suffering economic hardships amid a lack of government support.

Weighing the scales of violence in northwest Syria
Nick Grinstead

Netanyahu dislikes rotation deal, but also fears elections
 By Dec. 23, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must decide what scares him more: elections with Gideon Saar as contender or rotation with Defense Minister Benny Gantz.

Turkey won't back down from S-400s despite sanctions, says foreign minister
 Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Ankara will "take steps" to respond to the US sanctions unveiled this week.

Steven A. Cook writes: Yet looking back over the last decade, it is hard to fathom why anyone would venture to argue that the uprisings produced much more than sorrow. That does not mean that the uprisings were a mistake—as if such unpredictable events could even be categorized as such. Tunisians, Egyptians, Libyans, Syrians, Yemenis, Bahrainis, and others rose up in response to their bitter circumstances to demand a better future. They were mostly crushed. – Foreign Policy
​ 
Oz Katerji writes: The Arab Spring may be over, but the civilian uprisings in the Middle East have barely begun. The Middle East now finds itself in the state of flux that Karl Marx described as permanent revolution, the aspirations of its people permanently churning but never fulfilled There is no way for dictatorships to turn the clock back to 2011, and there is no desire from their populations to accept a status quo that permanently disenfranchises them. The powder is drier than it has ever been; all that is missing now is the next spark. – Foreign Policy 

Francisco Serrano writes: The frequency of these attacks highlights the dangers posed by an uncertain political environment, widespread economic problems, and regional instability. But the fact that they have become less deadly over time also seems to underline the improvements that successive governments have made to Tunisia’s security apparatus. […]In the long run, improving security will require more than just military and policing solutions.  – Middle East Institute

Israel Needs a Caucasus Strategy
By Dmitri Shufutinsky, December 16, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel must maintain its deep historic relationship with Azerbaijan, but the Jewish people also have common bonds with Armenians. Jerusalem must seek a larger role in the region to broker peace and prevent Iran and Turkey from gaining a foothold in the area.
Continue to full article ->

David Rosenberg writes: The Arab world’s problem is that it is relatively easy to oust a dictator but it’s much, much harder to change the fundamental nature of society. The Gulf states are trying to do it by spending and reforming, but the results are at best mixed. Revolutions are supposed to be catalysts for change, but anyone who believes that hasn’t read his history books carefully. Those hoping for a new and improved Arab Spring that delivers democracy and human rights should think again. – Haaretz 
​
Omar Alshogre writes: If, like in Egypt, the Syrian revolution had ended in less than a month, we would not have learned so much about freedom, democracy, and human rights. Ten years of unrest will make Syrians the most capable people in the Middle East at rebuilding their country in the future. We will not make the same mistakes of other countries that have rid themselves of their dictators but are still trapped in corrupt systems. – Foreign Policy 

Jeffrey Mankoff writes: In 2005, Putin famously said that the Soviet collapse represented the greatest geopolitical disaster of the twentieth century; less remarked on was his later observation that anyone wishing to restore it lacked a brain. As Eurasian geopolitics becomes increasingly complicated by the expansion of Chinese power, growing Turkish assertiveness, and questions about the durability of U.S. commitments, Russia’s ability to adapt and thrive should not be underestimated. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​

Robert O. Work writes: The purpose of this new concept is to help guide Joint Force doctrinal and programmatic development by describing a vision for human-machine collaborative battle networks waging high-intensity algorithmic operations against an opposing system of systems. This concept focuses on employing human-machine collaborative battle networks in the 2040 timeframe to guide force development beyond the current future-year defense plan. – Center for a New American Security ​

Earlier this week, Russia’s Defense Ministry released a video of the Avangard hypersonic-boost glide system being deployed in the Orenburg region near Russia’s border with Kazakhstan. […]The clip then showed several close-up shots of Avangard being installed onto a missile silo. “The complex technological operations last several hours,” read a Defense Ministry press statement accompanying the video.- The National Interest

Rachel Ellehuus and Donatienne Ruy write: By analyzing the internal causes of instability in littoral Mediterranean countries and external influence, the United States can craft a more effective strategy for the Mediterranean. Identifying common threats and opportunities throughout the Mediterranean and enhancing the ability of the United States and NATO to compete along the Southern Flank will be vital for continued success in this region. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​