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Pakistan on a Tightrope By Dr. James M. Dorsey, May 19, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Pakistan risks falling off a tightrope as it attempts to balance its relations with rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. Continue to full article -> 
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 Likud member breaks with Netanyahu over immunity bill
Israeli opposition lawmakers praised Knesset member Gideon Saar on Thursday for breaking ranks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on a bill that would grant him immunity from prosecution while in office. Although Saar is from Netanyahu’s Likud Party, the two men have frequently clashed. Netanyahu has been working to advance a bill that would allow him to avoid prosecution in three pending corruption cases. Read More
Is war with Iran imminent? Here's the real truth
Kenneth Pollack | Fox News It is unlikely that the US will find itself in a war with Iran in the near term because both sides are eager to avoid one. Although some of President Trump’s advisers may welcome a clash with Tehran, he has consistently made clear that he wants to end American wars in the Middle East, not start new ones.
Yemen’s Houthis claim drone strikes on Saudi pipeline
The confirmed use of armed drones to target major oil pipelines deep within Saudi Arabia represents a major increase in the Houthis capabilities. Deadly Niger ambush claimed by the Islamic State The jihadist group also claimed an assault on a high-security prison near the capital of Niamey. 
Al Qaeda video emphasizes unity with Taliban’s Islamic emirate
Al Qaeda has released a new video emphasizing its unity with the Taliban's Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The video features a joint Taliban-al Qaeda ambush on an Afghan army convoy in Paktika province.
The U.S. Can't Escape the Middle East
By Lara Seligman, Foreign Policy: "Almost 16 months ago, then-U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis initiated a course correction for the Pentagon. After 17 years of war in the Middle East, great power competition with Russia and China, not terrorism, would be the priority."
The Muslim Brotherhood and terrorism
Danielle Pletka | AEIdeas Should the US designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization? Experts use Twitter to weigh in on the debate.
A New Strategy to Counter Iran’s Growing Power
Omar Hossino Obama’s attempt to make Tehran an ally against ISIS has backfired. Trump needs to ditch that approach to keep Iran in check and prevent an ISIS resurgence. Read More
B-52s, Patriots, F-35s and More: America's Mideast Deployment Rundown
by Seth Frantzman The Jerusalem Post May 12, 2019 https://www.meforum.org/58501/americas-mideast-deployment-rundown MARTIN KRAMER EXAMINES THE RISE OF ISRAEL IN THREE ACTS & REVIEW OF US IRANIAN POLICY VIA OMAN5/9/2019 
From Ben-Gurion to Netanyahu: The Evolution of Israel’s National Security Strategy
Jacob Nagel | Visiting FellowJonathan Schanzer | Senior Vice President for Research
Up for Debate: U.S.-Iran policy
Mark Dubowitz — Middle East Institute So far, US policy seems to be working, albeit unevenly. The Trump administration has pursued an Iran policy based on the use of all instruments of national power — economic, diplomatic, and military deterrence — to stop Tehran from engaging in a wide array of aggressive and malign behaviors that defy global norms. So far, it seems to be working, albeit unevenly. The most successful part of the strategy has been the reinstatement of sanctions... Read more
Carrier strike group deployment offers opportunity to sharpen Iran policy
Behnam Ben Taleblu and Bradley Bowman — The Hill Iran will continue to utilize asymmetric or “gray zone” tactics as long as it believes it can do so with relative impunity. However, when confronted with strength, Iran has often backed-down. Indeed, under the Trump administration, naval harassment of American vessels by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is reportedly decreasing. To explain its de-escalation to a domestic audience, the regime has twisted itself into rhetorical knots... Read more
Oman in the Middle Muscat’s Balancing Act Between Iran and America
Jonathan Schanzer | Senior Vice President for ResearchNicole Salter | Project Manager
Up for Debate: U.S.-Iran policy
So far, US policy seems to be working, albeit unevenly. Mark Dubowitz | Chief Executive  Al Qaeda-linked operations room counterattacks as bombs fall in northern Syria The Assad regime and Russia have stepped up their bombing campaign in northwestern Syria in recent weeks. The al Qaeda-linked "Incite the Believers" operations room has counterattacked with a series of operations.
The Anglo-Russian rivalry (called the Great Game) precipitated the Second Anglo-Afghan War. Afghanistan was of strategic importance to the British in the defence of their Indian Empire, and the prevention of the spreading influence of Russia. They favoured a Forward Policy of extending India's frontiers to the Hindu Kush and gaining control over Afghanistan. In 1878 Sher Ali, who for the majority of his reign kept good terms with the British, was devastated by the death of his favourite son and his court was in disarray. The British were trying to establish a permanent mission at Kabul which Sher Ali, trying to keep a balance between the Russians and British, would not permit. The arrival of a Russian diplomatic mission in Kabul increased British suspicions of Russian influence and ultimately led to the Second Afghan War. The British undertook a three-pronged drive into Afghanistan, held the Khyber Pass and defeated the Amir's forces. Appointing his son Yakub Khan as regent, Sher Ali fled from his capital to take refuge in Russian Turkestan but died at Mazhar-e-Sharif on 21 February 1879. Yakub had to agree to the Treaty of Gandamak, whereby Afghanistan ceded to the British control of its foreign affairs, and the Khyber and Michni Passes, and allowed British representatives in Kabul and other locations.
This photograph of the Amir actually dates from 1869 from the Ambala Durbar when he first entered into negotiations with the British. Burke reused it as part of the introduction to his Afghan War catalogue. 
Making Sense of Palestinian Logic by Daniel Pipes
National Review Online May 4, 2019 https://www.meforum.org/58404/making-sense-of-palestinian-logic  Wall Street may be returning to Saudi Arabia, but it’s not back to business as usual Varsha Koduvayur | Senior Research Analyst It’s Time for Saudi Arabia to Stop Exporting Extremism Trump should not waste his opportunity to begin repairing Wahhabism’s trail of wreckage. John Hannah | Senior Counselor Ankara’s realignment with Russia will cost Turkey more than it thinks Merve Tahiroglu and Greg Everett — The Hill Washington’s deadline for Turkey to abandon its plans to purchase the S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system from Russia is fast approaching, with little progress. Fiercely defending his purchase of the missile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is accelerating Turkey’s strategic shift away from NATO. The costs of this shift are much larger than Turkey’s leaders are willing to admit — and not only on the country’s defense sector, but also its energy sector... Read more Wall Street may be returning to Saudi Arabia, but it’s not back to business as usual
Varsha Koduvayur — CNN Business Despite the concerns of many firms, it’s unclear whether Mohammed bin Salman realizes — or cares — how serious a blow the kingdom’s image has taken. Western firms that do business with Saudi Arabia may face a Sisyphean challenge when trying to protect their reputations after every new outrage. Under such conditions, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to get the buy-in it wants from the business community... Read more  China and the Sudan Coup By Roie Yellinek, May 2, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: On April 11, 2019, Sudan’s long reigning president Omar Bashir was overthrown in a military coup after 30 years at the helm. China, one of his staunchest supporters, must now assess how to maintain its relationship with the African nation, which lies on a critical spot on the prospective Belt and Road route. Continue to full article -> Arab Power Struggles Are Alive and Well By Dr. James M. Dorsey, May 10, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Libya’s battle for Tripoli alongside ongoing mass anti-government demonstrations that toppled autocratic leaders of Algeria and Sudan demonstrate that the popular Arab protests that in 2011 forced four presidents out of office – as well as the counterrevolution it provoked – are alive and kicking. Continue to full article -> Sudan army rejects civilian majority in ruling council (BBC) A top official in Sudan's military council has told the BBC it will not allow civilians a majority on the supreme council set to rule the country during a transitional period. A real plan to end the war in Yemen Kenneth Pollack, Barbara Walter, and Michael Knights | Foreign Affairs Of all the options before the United States, ending support to Saudi Arabia is the one that is least likely to stop the killing, dying, and complications for US interests. Brett McGurk writes: China is making a risky bet in the Middle East. By focusing on economic development and adhering to the principle of noninterference in internal affairs, Beijing believes it can deepen relations with countries that are otherwise nearly at war with one another—all the while avoiding any significant role in the political affairs of the region. This is likely to prove naive, particularly if U.S. allies begin to stand up for their interests. – Defense One
 Egypt presses ahead with nuclear power Egypt's al-Dabaa site in the northern Marsa Matrouh governorate has won permits to begin construction for the country's first nuclear power station. No one in the sun -and gas- soaked Middle East needs nuclear power
Mark Dubowitz and Henry Sokolski — Washington Examiner Wednesday’s decision by the Islamic Republic of Iran to break the restrictions of the Iran nuclear deal is a further reminder that neither Iran, nor for that matter Saudi Arabia, needs nuclear power. Nor, for that matter, does any other state in the gas-soaked, sun-drenched Middle East, where civil nuclear programs are simply nuclear bomb starter kits. Instead of straining to control these programs, or even facilitating them, the U.S. should encourage less risky, cheaper, clean non-nuclear alternatives.... Read more
The Iranian Government's 40 Years of Hatred Towards America by Majid Rafizadeh
Salafi-jihadi groups such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State use both coercion and persuasion to gain support from vulnerable populations. In a Critical Threats Project analysis, Emily Estelle shows how Ansar al Islam’s activities in northern Burkina Faso exemplify how Salafi-jihadi groups exploit conditions of poor governance and conflict. Because of this exploitation, communities under pressure accept and sometimes support the Salafi-jihadi presence as a means of survival even when they do not accept the groups’ ideology. Read more here
Examining the Global Terrorism Landscape
Bill Roggio testifies before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa and International Terrorism, and examines the global terrorism landscape.
Baghdadi outlines path forward for Islamic State post-caliphate
(The Associated Press) No longer burdened by territory and administration, Islamic State group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi outlined the new path forward for his group: Widen your reach, connect with far-flung militant groups and exhaust your enemies with a “war of attrition.”
Chaos in Sudan and the rest of North Africa threatens all of us
Emily Estelle | Los Angeles Times The US administration is turning away from Africa at a time when more engagement is crucial.
Libya's Coming Forever War: Why Backing One Militia Against Another Is Not the Solution by Frederic Wehrey and Emadeddin Badi
Libyan government presses US to block Gulf support for Tripoli offensive
The UN-backed Government of National Accord is lobbying Washington to halt Khalifa Hifter’s offensive on Tripoli by denying him arms from Gulf Arab states. 
Generals vs Islamists in Libyaby Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post April 24, 2019 https://www.meforum.org/58334/generals-vs-islamists-in-libya
Libyan forces push Hifter's army back in southern Tripoli
Forces loyal to Libya’s internationally recognized government appeared to push back Khalifa Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) in house-to-house fighting in southern Tripoli on Sunday. The fighting comes as four people were killed and 20 others were wounded in air raids on the capital a day earlier. Hifter's forces have been leading a three-week offensive on Tripoli that has killed at least 278 people. This weekend's air strikes came as the LNA said it had dispatched a warship to Ras Lanuf, a major oil port, to secure the country’s oil facilities. Read More
What Russia makes of Hifter's offensive on Tripoli
Russia has positioned itself as an impartial middleman in the Libyan crisis, but there's a fine blueprint that defines this position.  Tehran appoints new IRGC chief commander Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Hossein Salami as the new chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on April 21, replacing Mohammad Ali Jafari after 12 years in command. Salami previously served as deputy commander to Jafari for a decade. Hossein Salami The New Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Read moreFull document in PDF format U.S., IRAN:
Why Iran-U.S. Confrontation May Intensify Under New IRGC Commander By Saeid Jafari, Al-Monitor: "Iran replaced the commander of its powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) less than two weeks after the United States designated it a "foreign terrorist organization." Given the wider global agenda advanced by the new IRGC commander, the replacement is a clear signal from Tehran that bowing to Washington's pressure is not an option." Khalilzad flip flops on Pakistan, Taliban’s relationship with al Qaeda In his testimony to Congress in July 2016, Zalmay Khalilzad called for designating Pakistan a State Sponsor of Terrorism for its support of the Taliban, noted the enduring Taliban-al Qaeda alliance. Today he praises Pakistan for its desire for peace in Afghanistan and claims the Taliban will be an effective counterterrorism partner.  The Battle of Afghanistan “Fundamentally, war is a contest of wills.” Clifford D. May | Founder & President Simon Henderson writes: One monarch, Saud, was forced to abdicate in 1964 under family pressure. The next, Faisal, was assassinated in 1975 by a nephew. King Khalid followed, but he was just a figurehead. And so on until the thirty-three-year-old phenomenon known as MbS, a modernizer who has quickly gained notoriety for his reckless administrative style. Whether he ultimately ascends the throne will entail plenty of plot twists, but it also holds serious implications for the kingdom, the future of the region, and U.S. interests. – Washington Institute It’s getting harder to track US progress in Afghanistan (Defense One) It’s getting harder and harder for the public to track the U.S. military’s progress in its 17-year war in Afghanistan, the special inspector general for Afghan reconstruction warned Wednesday ahead of the release of his latest quarterly report. U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
U.S. Employs Unprecedented Number of Security Contractors in Afghanistan By Paul D. Shinkman, U.S. News & World Report: "More than 5,800 privately employed security personnel are currently operating in Afghanistan under Pentagon contracts, according to the latest report released this month that the military headquarters overseeing Middle East wars compiles for Congress."
Krishnadev Calamur writes: When Sri Lanka’s brutal civil war ended in an equally brutal fashion a decade ago, there was hope that the island nation could leave its past behind. The Easter Sunday bombings, the first attacks of this scale since the war, are a reminder of how fragile the peace the nation achieved really is. The attacks on churches and hotels, which killed more than 200 people, came at a crucial juncture: The country is still struggling to reconcile its past while building a new future. – The Atlantic
 The Resilience of the Arab World's Pouvoir Shlomo Ben-Ami shows why the forces pushing for political change in Algeria and Sudan could go the way of their predecessors. The US administration is turning away from Africa at a time when more engagement is crucial, writes Emily Estelle in a Los Angeles Times op-ed. The oustings of Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmad Bashir and Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika last month are part of a wave of conflict engulfing northern Africa and posing grave risks to stability in the region and beyond. The discord is likely to produce major new refugee flows and increase the potential for a dramatic expansion of the Islamic State and al Qaeda in northern Africa. Learn more here. Algeria’s protesters vie for uncertain legacy Although weekslong protests in Algeria managed to dislodge the president and regime-linked figures, many challenges lie ahead still. Algeria’s army moves from arbiter to central player in politics The protests have thrust Algeria’s behind-the-scenes kingmaker into an unwelcome limelight. Algeria sacks head of state-owned oil company
Algeria’s interim President Abdelkader Bensalah fired the head of state-owned oil giant Sonatrach on Tuesday. Abdelmoumen Ould Kaddour, who is close to former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, was replaced by Rachid Hachichi. Meanwhile thousands of students took to the streets of Algiers on Tuesday demanding the trial of figures linked to Bouteflika's two-decade-long regime. Authorities on Monday arrested five of the country’s wealthiest businessmen as part of an anti-graft investigation. Read More 
Bringing the Air Division Back to the Future
By Mike Pietrucha & Jeremy Renken, War on the Rocks: “The scope of changes that the U.S. Air Force must undertake to meet the direction of the National Defense Strategy is difficult to overstate. Recent clear-eyed assessments of threats from great powers like Russia and China, combined with the opportunity to reduce U.S. military investment in the Middle East has given the service’s planners a window of opportunity to let intentional design, rather than events, drive how it organizes, trains, equips, and presents its force."
Panel: Political end to Afghan War is risky but necessary
(USNI News) Talks between the United States and the Taliban over Afghanistan’s future remain risky but necessary to reach a political settlement to end decades of war, a leading expert in South Asia security affairs said Monday.
Libya Is Trump’s Latest Chance to End An ‘Endless War’
By Bonnie Kristian, RealClearDefense: “This evacuation allows us to recognize that however well-intended, U.S. military intervention in Libya has done more harm than good."
France's Double Game in Libya
By Paul Taylor, Politico EU: “Like the police captain in “Casablanca” feigning outrage at gambling in Rick’s Café before being handed his winnings, France was “shocked, shocked” to find that the Libyan generalissimo whose forces it has covertly helped arm and train was marching on Tripoli."
Tunisia, Egypt host Libya talks as Hifter's forces slow push on Tripoli
UN envoy Ghassan Salame met on Monday with Tunisian Foreign Minister Khemaies Jhinaoui during a visit to Tunis to discuss the crisis in neighboring Libya. UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the two stressed the need to reach a political solution to end the crisis. Meanwhile, Egypt is hosting two emergency meetings today on the situations in Sudan and Libya. African leaders will focus on “relaunching a political process … [and] the elimination of terrorism” in Libya, the Egyptian presidency said. The spurt of diplomacy comes as eastern commander Khalifa Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army appeared to slow down its push on the capital Tripoli this week as the civilian toll in the fighting has topped 264 deaths and more than 32,000 civilians have been displaced. Read More
U.S., LIBYA:
Trump Backed Haftar's Attack on Tripoli, U.S. Officials Say By Samer Al-Atrush & Jennifer Jacobs & Margaret Talev, Bloomberg: “President Donald Trump indicated in a phone call with Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar last week that the U.S. supported an assault on the country's capital to depose its United Nations-backed government, according to American officials familiar with the matter."  India And Pakistan: Making the Stability/Instability Paradox Go One Way By Kevin R. James, The Strategist (ASPI): “Exploiting Kashmiri disaffection and the transnational jihadist movement, Pakistan is waging a deadly guerrilla war against India in Kashmir." India is hopeful it will avoid US sanctions over its purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system, Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told AFP. – Agence France-Presse
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, one of Afghanistan’s most notorious former warlords, said there is “no doubt” neighboring Pakistan supports the Afghan Taliban. – Radio Free Afghanistan Husain Haqqani writes: Pakistan’s support for militancy is motivated by the desire to provide a force multiplier for a relatively poor country trying to act as a major regional power without resources comparable to its perceived rival. Pakistan is an ideological state and is unlikely to change without questioning the state ideology. But for some in the West, the notion that “surely they must have understood by now that they need to change” often overrides the lessons of history. – The Print  Soner Cagaptay writes: The U.S.-Turkey relationship is facing a crisis. This is because, unlike in the past, Ankara has no powerful friends in Washington. And if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan purchases the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system, a deal to which Washington vehemently objects, this will cause a historic rupture between allies […]This time, with Russia signaling its readiness to provide Turkey with weapons and security in Syria, and Putin wooing Erdogan daily, a rupture will be deeper and last longer. – The Hill Selçuk Colakoğlu writes: Turkey’s Eurasianist foreign policy lacks a full-fledged strategy that can realistically be expected to yield positive outcomes for the country, especially when compared to its Kemalist pro-Western counterpart. Despite its rhetorical allure, the anti-Western stance has not translated into a sustainable and prosperous economic model for Turkey. […]Turkey needs to forge and refresh regional partnerships and alliances as much as possible rather than fuel enmities and rivalries. The path to Turkey’s regaining and extending its influence regionally and globally lies in recommitting to a pro-Western axis underpinned by a Kemalist foreign policy. – Middle East Institute After experiencing a decade of growth, Turkey’s increasingly vibrant defense industry may fall victim to the government’s quest to purchase the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system, a deal that will make Turkey the first NATO ally to deploy the system on its soil. […]Turkey risks severe U.S. sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. Top U.S. lawmakers are threatening to pass legislation that would bar Turkey from buying the F-35 fighter jet, and sanction the country if it buys the Russian S-400. – Defense News Why Turkey’s reliance on Trump for S-400 sanctions waiver appears misguided
Turkey is counting on President Donald Trump to waive US sanctions if Turkey takes delivery of the Russian air defense system. But any possible leniency would face significant obstacles in Congress.  Sudan’s windfall from the Gulf and the perils of new development finance Karen E. Young | AEIdeas The US and the EU are in no position to compete with the amount or the immediacy of financial support that the Gulf Arab states can offer. But for emerging markets, today’s windfall is tomorrow’s institutional challenge South Sudan’s opposition wants to extend the implementation of the initial stages of a peace deal with the government for a period of six months. After the coup against longtime President Omar al-Bashir, Sudanese protesters have suspendednegotiations with the military council leading the transitional government. Arab Spring 2.0 Brings Unrest As U.S. Sits It Ou tBy BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | April 19, 2019 https://www.nysun.com/foreign/arab-spring-20-brings-unrest-as-us-sits-it-out/90654/ Arab North Africa is in turmoil, and Americans are too tired, disillusioned, or self-absorbed to do anything about it. And that isn't necessarily a bad thing. In Sudan, discontent has once again triggered unrest, while in Libya a budding strongman is on the rise. Unsavory outsiders -- neighboring regimes, Islamists, Russians, Iranians, even the Chinese -- are seeking to gain influence amid turmoil. The Arab Spring that swept the region beginning in late 2010 quickly turned into a long winter. Chaos and terror slashed democratic hopes. Now Arab Spring 2.0 is upon us. Don't expect a brighter outcome than from the first. Continue Reading Jon B. Alterman writes: Even so, it would be a mistake to assume that the falls of Bouteflika and Bashir are merely isolated incidents. Algerian and Sudanese protestors seized on conditions that continue to prevail throughout the Arab world, and in most cases, they have not improved since the events of 2011. Corruption of every sort remains rife, economic conditions are worsening, and young people look with a combination of anger and envy at government officials. – Center for Strategic and International Studies Martin Kramer on the Middle East Sudan Crisis Impacts Whole Middle East by Seth Frantzman The Jerusalem Post April 11, 2019 https://www.meforum.org/58208/sudan-crisis-impacts-middle-east The emerging front-runners in Algeria’s uncertain election Four prospective candidates have the organizational support and the name recognition to launch credible campaigns on short notice. Protests Challenge Gulf Counterrevolution By Dr. James M. Dorsey, April 18, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Much of the Middle East’s recent turmoil stems from internecine Middle Eastern rivalries spilling onto third country battlefields and Saudi and UAE-led efforts to roll back the achievements of the 2011 popular Arab revolts and pre-empt further uprisings. The recent successful toppling of ailing Algerian president Abdelaziz Bouteflika and months of anti-government demonstrations that have put Sudanese leader Omar al-Bashir on the defensive suggest that the Saudi-UAE effort may be faltering. Continue to full article -> How unemployment helped drive Algeria protests
In addition to charges of nepotism and corruption among the ruling class, bleak employment prospects — particularly for youth — drove many Algerians to the streets. |
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