What Will Happen When Khamenei Dies?

HUDSON INSTITUTE: SW ASIA

U.S. LEADERSHIP IN YEMEN:  WHY IT MATTERS

U.S. COUNTER TERROR STRATEGY:  HALTING

U.S. INDIA DEFENSE TIES GROWING:  HUDSON INSTITUTE VIDEO

Trump's Bitter Denouement
by Richard A. Epstein via Defining Ideas
His sorry ending should not conceal his administration’s real achievements.

Iran, China, Promise to be the Biggest Tests of Biden's Presidency in 2021

The Caravan: Al-Qaida And The Taliban At The Crossroads.
interview with Russell A. Berman, Cole Bunzel via The Caravan Notebook
What are jihadis saying about the Taliban peace deal and Afghan negotiations?

Three Months After the Abraham Accords, the Palestinians Have Lost the Arab Street

Erdoğan's Reckless Gambit: It's Payback Time

Implications for Israel of the Joint Terrorist Military Exercise in the Gaza Strip
By Omer Dostri, January 8, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The first joint military exercise of the Gaza terrorist organizations was a milestone for Hamas, which wishes to unite these organizations in order to strengthen its control over the Strip as well as its “ambiguity strategy” vis-à-vis Israel. The exercise has implications for Israel at both the strategic and the operational levels as it prepares for a possible conflagration in Gaza.
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CHINA'S CHALLENGES AHEAD

Into the danger zone: The coming crisis in US-China relations

Shia Militias Threaten US, Israel in Iraq  by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
December 31, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61912/shia-militias-threaten-us-israel-in-iraq

Tehran’s 20 Percent Enrichment is Designed to Extort Washington
Behnam Ben Taleblu and Andrea Stricker — Newsweek
Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.) built a reputation as a lawmaker with a low profile and a high impact. His recent passing has brought one of his signature pieces of legislation back into the spotlight. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 instituted protections to promote the stability of the national financial system. As the digital era reshapes the economy, we can honor Sen. Sarbanes’ work and legacy by ensuring that the Act continues to serve the same ends he envisioned nearly 20 years ago — promoting American prosperity through responsible corporate governance. Read more

India and Oceania: Potential and Opportunities
Cleo Paskal and Lord Fakafanua — India Foundation

JCPOA 2.0
by John R. Bolton, John Yoo via National Review
he first great conflict of Joseph Biden’s presidency could erupt on the field of national security.

Iran Unveils New Underground Missile Base. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has revealed a large underground missile base near the Persian Gulf.  The announcement was broadcast on Iran’s state TV and comes just after a recent show of force by the U.S. as two B-52 Bombers flew thru the region.  Al Jazeera Jerusalem Post

Hypersonics Illustrate Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
By Abbey Baker, Christian Contardo & Doreen Edelman, National Defense Magazine: “Hypersonics — the science behind missiles that travel in excess of Mach 5 and can quickly change trajectory mid-flight — illustrate the challenges faced by U.S. companies working on emerging technologies.” ​

BESA's Top Ten of 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: During 2020, the BESA Center consolidated its position as the globally most widely read Israeli think tank in its field, with page views growing twofold to nearly 3.5 million. Below are the ten most widely read articles published in 2020. The selections reflect strong reader interest in the COVID-19 pandemic and its origin, great-power rivalries, and Israel’s national security and relations with the Arab world.

​Hamas's Maneuvers Are Defensive - For Now
By Prof. Hillel Frisch, January 8, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Hamas, along with 11 other terrorist organizations working together under a “Joint Operations Headquarters,” recently conducted an exercise involving coordinated extensive rocket and drone launchings. Hamas said the exercise was defensive, but stressed that it remains committed to “liberating” “Palestine.” Israel’s policy of economic pacification is serving to enhance Hamas’s capabilities against it.
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Hoover Fellows Analyze Foreign Policy Challenges For Incoming Presidential Administration
via Hoover Daily Report
The Hoover Institution hosted a virtual online series featuring fellows’ analysis of the foreign policy challenges facing the incoming presidential administration.

Iran's Plan to Topple Arab Leaders  by Khaled Abu Toameh 

IRAQ COLLAPSING READ MORE

GETTING CHINA POLICY RIGHT Derek Scissors testified that to actively improve American competitiveness with China requires a comprehensive strategy and costly implementation.  Staying ahead of a slipping, skittish China

  Bedfellows: Iran and Al Qaeda  by Majid Rafizadeh 

10 years on, Tunisian emotions mixed in birthplace of Arab Spring
 Ten years after the first Arab Spring protests erupted in the central Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid, the locals are still suffering economic hardships amid a lack of government support.

Netanyahu dislikes rotation deal, but also fears elections
 By Dec. 23, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must decide what scares him more: elections with Gideon Saar as contender or rotation with Defense Minister Benny Gantz.

Turkey won't back down from S-400s despite sanctions, says foreign minister
 Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Ankara will "take steps" to respond to the US sanctions unveiled this week.

Jeffrey Mankoff writes: In 2005, Putin famously said that the Soviet collapse represented the greatest geopolitical disaster of the twentieth century; less remarked on was his later observation that anyone wishing to restore it lacked a brain. As Eurasian geopolitics becomes increasingly complicated by the expansion of Chinese power, growing Turkish assertiveness, and questions about the durability of U.S. commitments, Russia’s ability to adapt and thrive should not be underestimated. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​

Robert O. Work writes: The purpose of this new concept is to help guide Joint Force doctrinal and programmatic development by describing a vision for human-machine collaborative battle networks waging high-intensity algorithmic operations against an opposing system of systems. This concept focuses on employing human-machine collaborative battle networks in the 2040 timeframe to guide force development beyond the current future-year defense plan. – Center for a New American Security ​

Rachel Ellehuus and Donatienne Ruy write: By analyzing the internal causes of instability in littoral Mediterranean countries and external influence, the United States can craft a more effective strategy for the Mediterranean. Identifying common threats and opportunities throughout the Mediterranean and enhancing the ability of the United States and NATO to compete along the Southern Flank will be vital for continued success in this region. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​

Will Sudan hand over Islamists to Egypt?
 During a recent meeting, Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the head of Sudan's Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman al-Burhan, discussed the handover of members of the banned Muslim Brotherhood to Cairo.

Failure in Armenian conflict should cause American soul-searching  
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

3 intelligence failures from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict need investigating  
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

The Paradox of Precision: Nonstate Actors and Precision-Guided Weapons by Itamar Lifshitz and Ayal Meents

How To Build Upon Recent Progress in the Middle East

The Al-Masri Assassination: Another Iranian Intelligence Failure
By Dr. Ardavan Khoshnood, November 19, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: On August 7, 2020, the number 2 figure in al-Qaeda, Abdullah Ahmad Abdullah (known as Abu Muhammad al-Masri), was gunned down in Tehran. Al-Masri’s very presence in Iran exhibited the close relationship Tehran has with the Sunni terrorist organization, and his slaying shows the weakness of Iranian counterintelligence. The regime’s frustration at this intelligence failure will likely be expressed through acts of violence. It will probably reform its counterintelligence community and may ask for assistance in this endeavor from both Russia and China.
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Why Does Israel Execute Distant Enemies and Coddle Close Ones?  by Nave Dromi
The Jewish Press
November 18, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61783/the-difference-between-assassinations-near-and-far

No, It’s Not Surprising That Abu Muhammad al-Masri Was Living in Iran
​The Islamic Republic and al-Qaeda have a long history of cooperation.

Our So-Called Foreign Policy: China Advice that Biden (Unfortunately) Could Take

Biden and Erdogan: Five Potential Flashpoints in US-Turkish Relations

DoD Needs to Relearn the (Almost) Lost Art of Net Assessment
By Bryan Clark & Dan Patt & Timothy A. Walton, Strategy Bridge: "Tough choices lie ahead for the U.S. Department of Defense. Government relief in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and rising costs to service the federal debt are expected to constrain discretionary spending, including spending on defense. At the same time its budgets are being squeezed, the U.S. military will need to address a peer competitor in China; creative Russian, Iranian, North Korean adversaries; and a potentially unaffordable approach to deterring and waging war."

The Need to Compete on Multiple Battlegrounds:
An Interview with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster
By Octavian Manea, Small Wars Journal: "Increasingly we are seeing our adversaries attack our will to sustain our foreign policy and our efforts abroad."

Arabs Warn Biden: Do Not Embrace Islamists  by Khaled Abu Toameh 

Jihadi Reactions To The U.S.-Taliban Deal And Afghan Peace Talks
by Cole Bunzel via The Caravan Notebook

WHAT AMERICA FIRST MEANS

Why the U.S. Can and Must Win the Race for Hypersonic Weapons
By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: “Winning the race to deploy hypersonic weapons will be one of the most important achievements in U.S. national security of the 21st Century."

Great Power Competition Comes Home to America
By Bradley Bowman & Shane Praiswater, Defense One: "Our leaders’ efforts to heal divisions among our fellow citizens are key to national defense."

Offensive Advantage and the Vanity of Ethics
By Kevin Kallmes, Notes on Liberty: “All military historians shake their heads in disappointment at the Maginot Line, which Hitler easily circumvented.” ​

Pakistan is bracing for more protests as an alliance of opposition parties builds momentum for a nationwide series of rallies calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Imran Khan. – Bloomberg

Pakistan: Thousands Gather for Anti-Government Protests.  Tens of thousands of opposition supporters rallied in Karachi Sunday as part of a campaign to oust Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan, who they accuse of being installed by the military in a rigged 2018 election.  Al Jazeera Reuters ​

Hussein Ibish writes: The lesson for the Baghdad embassy, he tells me, is to look for an option between keeping the presence as it is and shutting it down altogether, both of which would be big mistakes. “But,” Silliman notes, “the first thing is to decide what the main purpose of the presence is, and then suit the infrastructure to fit the mission.” As with so much else about U.S. policy in the Middle East, the solution to this problem must start with Washington finally deciding what it wants to accomplish. – Bloomberg

Erdogan Declares War on Arabs  by Khaled Abu Toameh  

Alberto M. Fernandez writes: The Erdogan regime thinks it is being very clever, playing one power against another for its own benefit. But the overall result seems to be constant chaos and turmoil which an already burdened West is forced to manage and try to contain. Even if there was some benefit to the U.S. from Turkish aggression in the Caucasus – and such a benefit seems to be tiny if not invisible – it would seem that this long and growing list of Turkey’s regional actions hostile to the U.S. far outweighs any possible benefit from its latest misadventure. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Is Israel Victory Still Needed?
Yes, it offers the only path to end Palestinian rejectionismby Daniel Pipes
Jerusalem Post
October 7, 2020
http://www.danielpipes.org/19847/is-israel-victory-still-needed

ISIS’ David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Frank Pabian: Looking for evidence of the construction of Iran’s new centrifuge assembly plant: New possible preparations identified

READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
September 2020 Map Update: Al Houthi “Balanced Deterrence” Campaign | Jessica Kocan 

Why Palestinians Will Not Accept Advice from Arabs  by Khaled Abu Toameh 

Palestinians: What Failure Looks Like  by Khaled Abu Toameh  

Pakistan’s Navy is racing to plug operational and technological gaps as part of an unprecedented modernization effort, according to the outgoing naval chief, but analysts are divided on whether the move will deter adversaries. – Defense News

Will They Or Won't They? Saudi Recognition of Israel Is the $64,000 Question
By Dr. James M. Dorsey
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Will the Saudis formalize relations with Israel or will they not? Odds are that Saudi Arabia is not about to formalize relations with Israel—but the kingdom, its image tarnished by multiple missteps, is seeking to ensure that it is not perceived as the odd man out as smaller Gulf states establish diplomatic relations with the Jewish state.
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Micah Levinson on Prospects for Revolutions in the Middle East  by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
September 30, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61588/levinson-on-revolutions-in-middle-east

Beware Pakistan's Radical Barelvis by Sam Westrop
September 30, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/61589/beware-pakistan-barelvis

The Danger of Dawat-e-Islami  by J.M. Phelps
American Spectator
November 18, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/61785/the-danger-of-dawat-e-islami

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/09/jihadist-ideologues-argue-over-turkeys-erdogan.ph

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/09/generation-jihad-ep-27-counting-al-qaeda.php

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran’s planners assess that naval threats to Iran are increasing. Iran held a drill with the Russian and Chinese navies last year. Iran’s drones have harassed US ships. Now Iran’s missiles are in play as well, as it invests more heavily in military installations along the Gulf coast and adjacent to the Gulf of Oman. Iran has also drilled to attack a mock US aircraft carrier over the last several years. Iran has made mistakes though, sometimes firing on its own ships. – Jerusalem Post

Shirin Ebadi, Abbas Milani, and Hamid Moghadam write: In spite of its radical rhetoric and bravura, the Islamic regime has shown that it responds only to credible international pressure. It must be made to understand that with such egregious breaches of human rights, they have no place in the civilized community of nations. Suspending the regime from sports leagues and international legal organizations is the first step to delivering that powerful message. – The Hill

David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Frank Pabian write: This summer, Iran decided to construct a new underground centrifuge assembly plant, following the destruction of the above ground one at the Natanz enrichment site on July 2, 2020. […]Because of the added difficulties of building an underground site, the completion of a new centrifuge assembly plant able to assemble thousands of advanced centrifuges per year is unlikely in 2021. – Institute for Science and International Security

Andrew Greco writes: The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) continued to deploy to greater Idlib Province between April 1 and October 7, 2020, despite Turkey striking a de-escalation deal with Russia on March 5, 2020.[…]These new deployments have likely resulted in higher overall troop levels, even after Turkey withdrew “hundreds” of TSK and proxy forces on September 8 and continued to deploy Syrian fighters to Libya and Azerbaijan – Institute of the Study of War

Abdullah Al-Jabassini writes: To decrease the likelihood of a regime crackdown, local armed actors should collaborate to fill the security vacuum and end the current state of lawlessness.[…]Without a serious call for action and collaboration, southern Syria is doomed to be a battlefield on which the “sons of the land” are merely the pawns and the victims of internal and external actors. – Middle East Institute

Karagül further stressed that Turkey is spreading throughout the whole region the powerful political wave that started in Anatolia. Turkey’s geopolitical mind is now in South Caucasus, and united with Azerbaijan, it has formed a surprising power. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Nawzad A Shukri writes: A withdrawal of US troops would also almost certainly lead to the collapse of the Iraqi security forces, allowing Iranian-backed Shia militias to dominate the country. ISIS would re-emerge, and instability and ethnic-sectarian conflicts would spread across Iraq. More importantly, a US withdrawal would create political vacuums in Iraq that would almost certainly be filled by Iran and its allies. All these developments would undermine the US and its allies’ position and interests, and would significantly change the regional balance of power in favor of Iran. – Jerusalem Post ​

David Pollock writes: Nevertheless, for now, it seems doubtful that even this truly unusual combination of allies will enable Azerbaijan to recapture all of its disputed territory. […]The most likely scenario, however, is that Baku’s skill at keeping unlikely bedfellows together will continue to preserve its own core interests without altering the fundamental tensions at stake. Neither Israel nor Iran is poised to gain a decisive advantage from either one’s ties with Azerbaijan, which is just the way Baku wants it. – Washington Institute

George Barros writes: It is unclear whether Kyrgyz forces will participate in the Unbreakable Brotherhood given intensifying protests in Bishkek. A Kyrgyz withdrawal from the Unbreakable Brotherhood would likely grant the Kremlin greater opportunity to repurpose the exercises. – Institute for the Study of War

Dan Gouré writes: In addition to long-range, more accurate weapons, the U.S. military needs a revolution in long-range surveillance and targeting. This requires not just deploying more and better sensors but developing advanced data management and analytic capabilities with a heavy reliance on artificial intelligence. The combination of highly lethal fires at all ranges and near-real time precision targeting will change the way the joint force fights in the future. – The National Interest

Defund CENTCOM
(War on the Rocks) After decades of spending trillions of dollars on fruitless wars, Americans are getting frustrated with the Middle East.

WINEP’s Assaf Orion: Hezbollah’s secrets explode and are covered up again

A threat from within': Iraq and the rise of its militias

Putin loses his footing in Russia’s backyard

Derek Scissors writes: It is a cliché to say that getting our own house in order should always be the top priority, but it is also right. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is an economic predator, and stronger American responses, even closing certain sectors to China entirely, are overdue. These responses must be based on sound information, such as exactly how and where Chinese state ownership makes it impossible for Americans to compete. Not only is the US the world’s dominant economy, but it can be indefinitely. – American Enterprise Institute
​
Scott Livingston writes: China’s efforts to formalize CCP control of its commercial sector will have significant ramifications for international trade, forcing more liberal market economies to decide how much state intervention they are willing to tolerate in their trading partners. […]The fact that China has released this opinion at a time of heightened U.S. scrutiny over the government’s links to Huawei and TikTok suggests that China feels confident enough in its system that it is now prepared to advance and defend it on the global stage. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

From 9/11 to Khashoggi: The Saudi Islamist State Within a State (Part III of III)
By Irina Tsukerman, October 4, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Is there a connection between the peak of Islamist activity in Saudi Arabia and current events and controversies, including the unsolved death of former Saudi intelligence officer Jamal Khashoggi, who once assisted Turki Faisal? A growing body of evidence points toward links between some former Saudi government officials swept up in new corruption probes under Muhammad bin Salman and Islamist activity under the Crown Prince’s predecessors. Khashoggi was likely a key witness to all of it, and his knowledge may have doomed him.
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BESA CENTER PAGE FOR IRINA TSUKERMAN

HOW COVID DESTROYS SAUDI & GULF LED ECONOMIES

TURKEY'S REAL AIM IS EGYPT

Taliban assaults Helmand capital as U.S. officials plead for a ‘reduction in violence’
U.S. officials continue to maintain that the Taliban committed to a "reduction in violence" as part of the withdrawal agreement. The deal says no such thing, and the Taliban continues to mount attacks.

Sam Westrop on the "Sinister" Mission of Islamic Relief by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
October 14, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61650/westrop-on-the-sinister-mission-of-islamic-relief

Will Russia recruit Syrian Kurds to fight in Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict?
 While Russia will likely avoid direct involvement in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, there are signs it could draw lessons from Libya and recruit fighters from Syria to do its bidding.

Cairo pushes for military agreements in Libya
 Following talks in the Egyptian city of Hurghada, Egypt is supporting Libya’s warring sides as they discuss how to dismantle the militias and unify Libya’s military institutions.

From 9/11 to Khashoggi: The Saudi Islamist State Within a State (Part II of III)
By Irina Tsukerman, October 2, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The role of Islamists in hijacking Saudi governance and major regional Arab and Muslim institutions has long been overlooked. A recent interview with a former Saudi intelligence official who was witness to key events highlights some of the actors who financed extremism and whose role in the planning of 9/11 and other terrorist activity has been ignored for nearly two decades.
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AFRICA FILE: NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE AFRICAN SALAFI-JIHADI MOVEMENT
Surveying the state of the Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa is a bleak exercise. Insurgencies are entrenched or expanding across broad swathes of western and eastern Africa, with a new insurgency developing rapidly in Mozambique. The situation is more positive in North Africa, where counterterrorism campaigns have weakened Salafi-jihadi groups significantly in recent years.

Ethiopia. Unrest across several regional states is threatening Ethiopia’s fragile political reforms and risks destabilizing the country.

Somalia. Al Shabaab is escalating attacks in an attempt to disrupt Somalia’s upcoming elections.

Libya. Libyan security forces killed a foreign Islamic State senior leader in the country’s contested southwest.

West Africa. Islamic State affiliates are drawing defectors from rival Salafi-jihadi groups in West Africa. An al Qaeda ally will likely remain dominant in the Sahel, however.

READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
"The US is unprepared for Africa’s growing terror threat

Alliance between Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox survives coronavirus crisis, emerges stronger
The historic alliance between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox parties faced several obstacles throughout the coronavirus, but it is now strengthening.

Don’t trust estimates of Al Qaeda’s strength in Afghanistan
Bill Roggio – FDD's Long War Journal
​
A ‘Tired’ Taliban talking point
Bill Roggio – FDD's Long War Journal

A separate peace in the Middle East
Clifford D. May — The Washington Times
Before there was a Palestinian-Israeli conflict, there was an Arab-Israeli conflict. Last week, on the White House lawn, that older conflict was put to rest. In normal times, we’d agree that the president deserves a Nobel Peace Prize, and that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict should be next up on Washington’s diplomatic to-do list. But these are not normal times. Prior to the ceremony, I received an email announcing: “Over 50 Organizations/Groups to protest the UAE and Bahrain Normalization with Israel During Deal Signing at the White House.” Read more

Trump succeeded where the UN failed

Toward a Transformational Peace in the Middle East  by Guy Millière

Israel’s next peace deal will be with Sudan
Jonathan Schanzer — New York Post
On the heels of the historic peace accords Israel signed last week with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, another regional deal is now possible. Sudan, once a terror safe harbor, is openly mulling ties with the Jewish state. Another major diplomatic achievement beckons, provided Washington gives the right nudges. Team Trump is keen for a domino effect. Sudan is just one possibility. Oman, Morocco and Saudi Arabia are also among states reportedly mulling ties with the erstwhile archenemy. Read more

Simon Henderson writes: The corruption allegation against General Fahd will only enliven rumors that there are other issues in play besides dissatisfaction with the Yemen campaign. Senior princes are rarely sacked from government positions, and when they are, succession-related politics are likely a factor (e.g., Mitab bin Abdullah, son of King Salman’s predecessor, was fired as national guard minister in 2017). For Washington, the change in military leadership could be an opportunity to engage Riyadh on changing its Yemen policy and resolving the protracted crisis once and for all. – Washington Institute

Ibrahim Jalal writes: The U.K.’s dwindling support for the ROYG might be a reflection of evolving realities and British pragmatism, crucial to navigating its interests in post-war Yemen. More than five years after Marriott left, the U.K.’s two conditions for returning to Sanaa remain unrealized, and as London looks to chart a new course after Brexit and in a post-pandemic world, its foreign policy in Yemen seems unlikely to change in the near term. – Middle East Institute
​
Mohammed Soliman writes: The GCC states will have to balance their economic and security interests during this severe global recession, and may need to adjust to increasing pressure from Washington if Joe Biden wins the November election and decides Gulf leaders need to be held to different standards than under the Trump administration. If the GCC states choose to maintain their relationship with Huawei, it will be a clear sign of diminishing U.S. power over its allies. However, if Gulf countries make that choice, they should also be prepared to face retribution for doing so. – Middle East Institute

Paul Wolfowitz writes: Some naïve or wishful Westerners seem to want to dismiss that activity as purely commercial ventures, or to view it as part of a Chinese “Marshall Plan” aimed at buying goodwill among developing nations of the region. […]It may be that the countries that Xi considers responsible for China’s “150 years of humiliation,” will wake up one day to discover that the Persian/Arabian Gulf, once secure under an umbrella of American protection, has become something else entirely. – Hoover Institution
​
Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli writes: There are also large Sunni and Kurdish populations in Iraq, which will reject control of their country by its eastern neighbor. Finally, the world has witnessed the rebellious youth of Iraq, who have demonstrated in the streets of Iraq against both the endemic corruption and Iran’s intervention in their country. Iran’s own financial constraints will place a low ceiling on the level of financial support it can provide to its proxies. Of course, no realist could deny that logic and rational considerations may not always be the dominant factor in determining the fate of nations in that part of the world.  – Middle East Media Research Institute

China’s top leaders next month will lay out their economic strategy for the next five years that will include a new ambition to ramp up domestic consumption and make more critical technology at home in a bid to insulate the world’s second-largest economy from swirling geopolitical tensions. – Bloomberg

Bruce Klingner writes: Abe’s successor will face a daunting challenge of economic doldrums, escalating military threats, and growing uncertainty about the continued viability of its U.S. ally. Japan is a crucially important diplomatic, economic, and security partner to the United States. The U.S.-Japanese bilateral partnership and alliance are based on shared values, principles, and objectives. Washington must do all that it can to support Japan’s next captain as he assumes the tiller to maintain a steady course. – The Daily Signal

The Navy’s new Light Amphibious Warship (LAW) program envisions procuring a class of 28 to 30 new amphibious ships to support the Marine Corps, particularly in implementing a new Marine Corps operational concept called Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO). – USNI News

Steven P. Bucci writes: A theoretical military principle suggests that steady quantitative changes can lead to a sudden, qualitative leap. After many, many years of sustained focus to drive down F-35 costs, the program may be representative of that maxim and allow the Defense Department to fully realize the advantages of the F-35′s gamechanging technologies. – Defense News

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/08/generation-jihad-ep-23-joe-biden-cant-end-the-jihad.ph

Trump Outside-In Mideast Strategy Takes To the Sky
By BENNY AVNI, Second Edition | August 30, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/trumps-outside-in-mideast-strategy-takes-to/91243/
Continue Reading

Will the UAE’s Barakah project launch new era of peaceful nuclear power in the Middle East?
 The recent operation of the reactor at the United Arab Emirates’ Barakah power plant is an important development for both the UAE and the Middle East region, as it marks a new step to break out from the deep and harmful reliance on fossil fuels for power generation.

Turkey’s tilt toward Pakistan provokes India’s ire
The government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is faced with a potential new foe, India, a close ally of Israel, that is loudly signaling it that may join swelling axis of anti-Turkey nations led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Greece.
The acrimony is being channeled through a spate of nasty articles in the Indian media casting Turkey as a malign meddler that is seeking to recruit and radicalize India’s estimated 182 million Muslims in cahoots with Pakistan.  Read Full Article  ​

Seth J. Frantzman writes: If the US wants to understand the mentality it is contending with, it should listen to Rouhani’s speech, which indicates Iran’s regime is not entirely deterred and believes it is on a historic mission. Its belief is bolstered by its own media coverage of support it is getting from other countries. – Jerusalem Post

Alex Fishman writes: It is safe to assume it’s not all about the killing of that same operative in Damascus, but also due to other actions taken by Israel against the organization, which have yet to be revealed to the public. Nasrallah needs a win, be it real or fictitious, to show to his followers.  And so, it is safe to assume the latest round against Hezbollah has not come to an end. – Ynet

Anton Mardasov writes: Going forward, Moscow will try to pressure Assad to introduce at least some superficial changes to the political system against the current backdrop of steadily worsening economic problems. Moscow expects to sell this as evidence that the country is going through a much-needed transformation. – Middle East Institute ​

Jonathan Spyer writes: Until now, however, no force has proven able to harness the potential Sunni power in Lebanon to its cause. […]As of now, however, the first signs are emerging that Sunni Islamist Turkey is seeking to fill the vacuum, and to recruit the Lebanese Sunni street to its banner. Something is happening in northern Lebanon. – Jerusalem Post

WINEP's Michael Knights: Inside the Kadhimi visit to Washington D.C
U.S. sanctions Chinese firms and executives active in contested South China Sea
Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said in an August 24, 2020 interview on Al-Alam TV (Iran) that Iran has 230 tons of heavy water, which he said is used for research. […]Kamalvandi said that Iran has over 1,000 tons of yellowcake and over 3 tons of uranium enriched to 4-4.1%, and he explained that this uranium stockpile is ten times larger than the amount agreed upon in the JCPOA. He also said that Iran can enrich uranium further if the need arises. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Michael Rubin writes: A broader concern, however, is not only Iran’s provision of UAVs to proxy groups in Iraq and Lebanon but also its transfer of the capability to manufacture drones to them. This buys both Iran and its proxies plausible deniability as, when drones are utilized against US interests or those of US allies, there will be a question mark about who ordered their attack […]. Simply put, Iranian drones are here to stay. The threat they pose cannot be underestimated, and they will remain part of the operational environment across the Middle East for decades to come. – American Enterprise Institute

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The whole situation in eastern Syria continues to limp along as it has over the last two and half years, lacking clarity. Overall though the role of the US diplomats who have been intensely pro-Ankara, to the extent that Ankara’s interests seem to come before the US role in Syria, have left confusion, instability and lack of faith in Washington’s commitment. – Jerusalem Post

Michael Rubin writes: After all, Erdogan is a cynic, not a partisan. He reprised the Svengali-role he exerted on Obama after Trump took office, and he clearly seeks to buy his way into any future administration. Just as Trump and his advisers should be held to account for their relationship with Erdogan and his businessman-proxies, it is time Biden recognize his campaign is also very much under an assault by those seeking to promote Erdogan at the expense of democracy and law. – Washington Examiner

Areig Elhag writes: Therefore, Israel must actively seek friendship and a real relationship with all stakeholders in Sudan to guarantee that the Sudanese populace will not reject such a relationship in the future. Ignoring the civilian side of relations will not be in Israel’s future interests, especially as the Forces of Freedom and Change and the Assembly of Professionals, the primary incubator for Prime Minister Hamdok, have a large influence on the Sudanese populace. – Washington Institute

Bayly Winder writes: It is in America’s strategic interest for Oman to maintain its foreign policy independence. Oman does not host a U.S. military base or buy huge amounts of American weapons like some other GCC states, but it is a valuable regional player with an outsized impact. The sultanate has also been an important U.S. military partner of long standing, including hosting U.S. military facilities at Thumrait and Masirah Island and providing the U.S. Navy access to the ports of Duqm and Salalah. – Middle East Institute

Bruce Klingner writes: North Korea is concurrently suffering from severe economic calamities due to international sanctions, self-imposed trade restrictions to stave off the coronavirus, and devastating monsoon rains damaging the agricultural heartland[…]. There has long been debate over the degree to which humanitarian disaster response assistance should be distinguished from large-scale food aid and economic development programs. The U.S. and other nations should be willing to provide immediate aid to ameliorate natural disasters that impact the populace while concurrently refraining from large-scale assistance that benefits the regime’s prioritization of the military over the needs of its citizens. – Heritage Foundation

A new Middle Eastern order is falling into position
(Washington Examiner) When the United Arab Emirates and Israel signed their historic agreement to normalize relations, they were formalizing a shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics that has been in motion for years.

Recently, Hossein Salami, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), gave two speeches to commanders of the IRGC and its Qods Force, which is responsible for operations outside Iran. In the speeches, he explained the essence of the IRGC and of the Qods Force. In both, Salami, who is known for his flowery rhetoric, fulsomely praised the uniqueness of the IRGC, in an attempt to fill his men’s hearts with pride. – Middle East Media Research Institute ​

IRAN:
Revolutionary Guards Poised to Take Over Iran
By Ali Reza Eshraghi & Amir Hossein Mahdavi, Foreign Affairs: “A new saying is making the rounds in Iran: power is being sucked away from heads to toes, which is to say, from men who wear turbans to men who wear boots. Iran’s new parliament furnishes the most recent evidence."

Beware the Irregular Threat in the Littoral
By Walker D. Mills, CIMSEC: “The world is increasingly urban and littoral. This convergence between urbanization and the littoral, or littoralization, can lead to “the worst of both worlds” and may remake the littorals into hotspots of instability and conflict."

Why Did Erdoğan Convert Hagia Sophia Into a Mosque?  By Dr. Edy Cohen, August 27, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently converted Hagia Sophia from a museum into a mosque, a decision that apparently involved no consultation and was executed swiftly after a surprise announcement. What were Erdoğan’s true motivations in taking this provocative step?
Continue to full article ->

​The Revolutionary Guards: The Anatomy of a State Terrorist Organization
By Dr. Reza Parchizadeh, August 26, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) was originally intended by the Islamist regime to be an ideologically oriented militia that would compensate for the regular Iranian army’s lack of revolutionary zeal. It has since replaced the regular army as Iran’s main military force and has spent decades working doggedly to export the regime’s Islamist brand of imperialism and conquest to the rest of the region and around the world. The IRGC is responsible, either directly or indirectly, for most of the worst terrorist outrages the world has ever seen. The US declared the Guards a state terrorist organization in 2019, but it needs to be completely dismantled.
Continue to full article ->

Lebanon may be broken beyond repair
​Its debt is massive, its political class corrupt, and terrorists call the shots

State Department Calls Out Erdogan’s Hosting of Hamas Terrorists

​United States: Washington Imposes Sanctions on Six Members of Assad Government.  The State Department on Thursday announced the imposition of sanctions against six Syrian military, financial, and other governmental officials.  Those designated in sanctions include military commanders and a recruiter, Assad’s media advisor and her husband, and Yasser Ibrahim, whom the State Department described as having “cut corrupt deals that enrich Assad” while obstructing a political solution to the conflict.  The sanctions include economic regulations, including asset freezes and restrictions on business dealings.  Al Jazeera The New York Times State Department

Venezuela: Colombian President Claims Venezuela is trying to Buy Iranian Missiles.  Colombian President Ivan Duque on Thursday said that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is attempting to acquire medium and long-range missiles from Iran while also trying to provide weapons to armed irregular groups in Colombia.  Venezuela’s foreign minister denied the accusations, but Duque insisted that “information from international intelligence organisms” indicates that although Venezuela has not yet acquired the missiles, it is in talks to do so.  France 24 Reuters

Netanyahu’s maneuvers leave Blue and White clueless on budget, elections
 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s constant machinations and tricks leave Blue and White in the dark as to whether he intends to push for new elections next week.

A U.S. Sale of F-35 Stealth Fighters to the UAE Could Be a Middle East Game Changer by Michael Peck
Forbes
August 20, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61411/a-us-sale-of-f-35-stealth-fighters-to-the-uae

Arabs Are Fed Up With the 'Ungrateful' Palestinians  by Khaled Abu Toameh 

In the Wake of the Israel-UAE Deal, Whither the Arab and Muslim World?

The Israel-UAE Peace Agreement Opens the Door

Sudan, Israel in talks toward agreement 
The spokesperson of Sudan’s Foreign Ministry Haidar Badawi al-Sadiq said yesterday that his country is in contact with Israel to advance a peace agreement. Sadiq also hailed the agreement reached between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. A few hours later, Sudan’s acting Foreign Minister Omar Qamar al-Din Ismail, denied the statement, saying the government was “surprised” by the claim by his spokesman that Khartoum and Jerusalem were edging toward reconciliation. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the initial statement. Netanyahu quietly met with the head of Sudan’s transitional government, Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, in Uganda in February to discuss normalizing relations.
Read More  
timesofisrael.com

The Iranian Nuclear Program as a Catalyst for the Israel-UAE Peace Agreement

Don’t Let China Steal the Global Nuclear-Power Industry
Michael Shellenberger, Manhattan Institute
​
The Quiet Revolution In Emerging-Market Monetary Policy
Piroska Nagy-Mohacsi, Project Syndicate

World’s Money Transfer System Is China’s Achilles Heel
Mary Hui, Quartz

Don’t Fall for the ‘Degrowth’ Delusion
David Behrens, CapX

Mossad chief heads to the UAE days after normalization deal 
Israel’s intelligence chief Yossi Cohen arrived in the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, in the first such visit since the two countries announced they had reached a historic agreement to normalize relations last week. Cohen met with Emirati national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan. “The two sides discussed prospects for cooperation in the fields of security as well as exchanged points of view on regional developments and on issues of common interest,” the official Emirati official WAM news agency said. The US-brokered deal, in which Israel agreed to suspend its plan to annex parts of the Palestinian West Bank, was seen as a new move to bolster opposition against Iran’s regional influence.
Read More  
al-monitor.com

Lebanon’s government resigned after the Beirut port blast. Here’s what needs to happen now.

With friends like these…Key European allies side with Tehran, Moscow and Beijing

Ending United States Military Operations in Somalia by Paul D. Williams

Lessons from Conflicts Between Nuclear and Non-Nuclear States by Alexander Lanoszka

Diplomatic Breakthrough: Israel, United Arab Emirates Normalize Ties with Natan Sachs

The Pandemic and U.S. Defense Spending with Matt Vallone

James Fenimore Cooper and the American Republic

Iran File   is a biweekly analysis of the Iranian regime's strategic efforts domestically and abroad.
NEWLY EMPOWERED HARDLINERS MOVE AGAINST ROUHANI
Iran’s newly empowered hardliners will undermine President Hassan Rouhani for the remainder of his term and likely facilitate the election of a far-right president in 2021. Rouhani lost vital political support when former IRGC Air Force Commander Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf replaced Ali Larijani as parliament speaker in May. Hardliners are using their newfound legislative influence to promote aggressive and authoritarian policies, undermining Rouhani’s political promises.

Ghalibaf is also likely coordinating with hardliners outside Parliament to politically neutralize Rouhani. A hardliner will likely become president in 2021 as Rouhani is further discredited. Expanding hardliner control will facilitate increasingly aggressive and authoritarian Iranian behavior while exacerbating economic turmoil and domestic dissent.

Read the latest edition here.
Iran’s entrenchment of strategic infrastructure in Syria threatens balance of deterrence in the Middle East
Iran is realigning its force posture in Syria to retain and expand its deterrence, freedom of action, and leverage with the US, Israel, and Russia. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) began moving some of its forces in Syria away from the front lines in the spring of 2020 while expanding and consolidating its footprint in eastern Syria. This shift offers Tehran more secure bases more directly under its control to threaten Israel and the US as instability risks some of its positions in Iraq and Lebanon.  Read the full article here.

Turkey on the Warpath  by Uzay Bulut  •

With a Potential Iran-China Deal, Time for Israel to Reassess Its Policy

Will Israel Find Itself Facing Down Iran, Turkey, and the US in Libya?
By Irina Tsukerman, July 27, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel does not need to be directly engaged in combat to help its allies confront and prevail over mutual adversaries. In Libya, it can play a role in training LNA troops, provide important logistical and intelligence support, and politically influence Washington to cease its backing of the GNA and hostile Islamist militias and state actors.
Continue to full article ->

Trump's Dangerous Diplomacy with Erdoğan  By Shay Attias, July 26, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: America’s reputation as a credible actor is an essential matter for US foreign policy, but it has weakened significantly throughout this century. George Bush’s war on the “axis of evil” failed, and Barack Obama’s “red line” speech proved empty. Today, Donald Trump is abandoning allies and conducting dangerous diplomacy with anti-democratic tyrants.
Continue to full article ->

Libya: Russian Military Equipment Sent to Libya Despite Arms Embargo.  The Pentagon released satellite photographs on Friday alongside a statement saying that Russia was still supplying weapons, aircraft, and armored vehicles to Libya despite the arms embargo. Africa Command (AFRICOM) deputy director of intelligence General Gregory Hadfield said "the type and volume of equipment demonstrates an intent toward sustained offensive combat action capabilities, not humanitarian relief, and indicates the Russian Ministry of Defense is supporting these operations."  The Moscow Times Reuters RFE/RL

Israel: Defense Minister Visits Israel Defense Forces Northern Command Amid Tensions.  Defense Minister and alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz visited Israel Defense Forces Northern Command Sunday, to warn that Israel will continue to protect security interests.  Gantz said “The State of Israel has no interests in Syria or Lebanon, except for security interests” he added that Israel “will continue to ensure our security interests.”  Gantz explained that ensuring security included preventing entrenchment of Iranian forces, blocking transfer of advanced weapons and preventing the development of precision missiles.  Albawaba Israel National News The Jerusalem Post

VOX

Explosion at Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran with Ariane Tabatabai

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/07/09/fortify-the-iran-sanctions-wall/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-cant-be-stopped-in-nuke-bid-but-can-be-deterred-says-former-mossad-chief/
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/middle-east/1594213363-iran-vows-to-bolster-syria-s-air-defenses-official
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/world/middleeast/iran-Natanz-nuclear-damage.html
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-launches-reconnaissance-satellite-into-space/

Why reassessing Israel’s risky relationship with China matters
Mark Dubowitz and Richard Goldberg — Ynet News
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently called on the United Nations Security Council to reimpose, or “snapback,” international sanctions and restrictions on the Islamic Republic of Iran – a terror-sponsoring regime that seeks to wipe Israel off the map. Just as the prime minister was speaking, another country was addressing the Security Council in defense of Iran: the People’s Republic of China. Read more

The Mysterious Explosions at Iran's Nuclear Facilities
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, July 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Three incidents, including two explosions at nuclear facilities, have shaken Iran in recent days. Were they connected? Were they caused by accidents or were they carried out by a foreign power? If the latter, were they executed via cyberattack? And what will be their domestic and international implications?
Continue to full article ->

The Sovereignty Debate Has Changed Israeli Discourse
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, July 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The moment the issue of extending Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and parts of the West Bank emerged, it took on a dynamic of its own. Not only did the opposing sides’ positions grow sharper and more polarized, but the way claims are being made—accompanied by fear-mongering and threats—has changed the dynamic of the internal Israeli debate on the Israeli-Palestinian problem.
Continue to full article ->

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The US says it wants to confront Russia in Libya. Everyone seems to want a piece of the action. None of the countries involved seem to have any interest in the Libyan people or stabilizing the country after a decade of civil war. It looks more like a test bed for Turkish weaponry and Chinese drones, as well as for Russian and Turkish air-defense systems. – Jerusalem Post

The emerging narrative of China’s rise in the Middle East as a counter to American influence rests on the skewed portrayal of a few large investments. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Karen Young debunks the narrative and points out that Beijing gets far more credit than it is due for investments in the region. China’s agenda in the Middle East is about China, not about sharing a development ideology or improving access to capital. For all the hype around Beijing’s supposed advantage of state capitalism, China has not yet proved to be a good investor or a desirable development partner for the Middle East — and certainly not a great power. Read here.

According to a recent joint statement by Pakistan and Afghanistan, “The soil of either country should not be used against the other.” If Pakistani leaders are serious, Islamabad should no longer allow its soil to be used as a safe haven for Taliban leaders, argues Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. It is time for Pakistan’s civilian government and the military to recognize that the reason no one in Afghanistan takes its diplomatic promises seriously is that the road map is clear on how to fulfill them, but Pakistan so far refuses to even start moving in the right direction. Continue here.

Countering China as an economic power and alternate political and development model is a centerpiece of US national security policy. Countering China in the Middle East, however, has proved challenging due to inconsistencies in US policy and with the growing perception of China's attractiveness to the region, notes Karen Young in Al-Monitor article. Framing the discussion of China’s role in the Middle East as a zero-sum game of choosing either US or Chinese patronage has only increased Beijing’s clout in the region. But there is no stark choice for the Gulf states to decouple from Washington or Beijing, only opportunities lost. Learn more here

Anna Borshchevskaya on Russia's Military Activity in the Eastern Mediterranean
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Radio
July 5, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61185/borshchevskaya-on-russias-military-activity-in-liby

Qatar's Anti-Saudi Seeds of the Islamist Quartet
By Irina Tsukerman, July 2, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Islamist Quartet consists of Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan, and Malaysia. The seeds of its agenda were planted by Qatari Emir Hamad’s and Libyan dictator Muammar Qhaddafi’s plot to take down the Saudi royal family and divide the Kingdom. Qatari lobbyists have since managed to bury the long history and strategic depth of these relationships by reshaping the narrative with a focus on the 2017 Gulf Crisis.
Continue to full article ->

Can Palestinian Despair Lead to End of Conflict? by Nave Dromi
JNS
June 25, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61175/can-palestinian-despair-lead-to-end-of-conflic

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-putin-rouhani-to-hold-syria-talks-kremlin-156155

· https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/06/19/the-caesar-act-and-a-pathway-out-of-conflict-in-syria/
·       https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/lebanon-ambassador-hezbollah-shea-media-ban/2020/06/28/15adec2a-b89f-11ea-9a1d-d3db1cbe07ce_story.html
·         https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-iraq-s-leadership-is-finally-setting-limits-on-iranian-intervention-1.8962450

How Putin Is Winning in Syria by Leni Friedman Valenta and Jiri Valenta
Middle East Quarterly
Summer 2020 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/61032/how-putin-is-winning-in-syria

Trump's Syria Policy Is Working by Jonathan Spyer
Foreign Policy
July 1, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61178/trump-syria-policy-is-working

Why Is Russia Undermining International Efforts in Syria?
 // Emma Beals
​Western negotiators must give no ground in Moscow's attempts to evade its responsibilities.

How Palestinians Terrorize Their Own People  by Bassam Tawil  •

The Mullah's Spies and Assassinations in the West  by Majid Rafizadeh 

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/06/pakistan-a-safe-haven-for-terror-groups-u-s-state-department.php

How Libya’s war is poisoning Tunisia’s politics
 The war in neighboring Libya has further polarized Tunisia's political landscape and imperiled the country’s fragile governing coalition.

Pakistan's insincere war on terror
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

New US sanctions against the Syrian government aim to “starve” the country and its neighbor Lebanon, the head of the Lebanese terror organization Hezbollah said Tuesday. – Times of Israel ​

Nasrallah: Hezbollah will keep its weapons, Lebanon will not starve

JPost’s Seth J. Frantman: Inside the pro-Iran and 'Islamic' worldview of Turkey's foreign minister

India-China border dispute: A conflict years in the making

On June 11, 2020, OGN TV (Syria) uploaded to its YouTube channel an interview with Chechen military contractor Ali Shishani, the leader of Malhama Tactical, a group based in Syria that trains Syrian rebels. […]Shishani said that the Jihad in Syria has tremendous potential and that the factions should unite into a single military-political force with a unified army and competent leadership. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Differences between the two main parties in Israel’s unity government could end up derailing the plan to annex parts of the West Bank, with associates of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fearing the internal disagreements will cause the United States to back out of supporting the move, a report said Wednesday. – Times of Israel

Barah Mikail writes: Iraq today is marked by a hybrid form of politics wherein nationalism and sectarianism coexist. When Iraqis flood the streets in protest, they put nationalism over sectarian feelings; however, when they go to the polls, they tend to favor candidates that reflect their ethnoreligious affinities. Whereas fears of a looming sectarian-based territorial fragmentation of the country might be justified, the hybridity of Iraq’s identity politics may be the best guarantee for preserving Iraq’s territorial integrity, and for limiting the damage caused by the mediocrity of the political elite. – Middle East Institute ​

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban organization) has set its conditions for the intra-Afghan talks to begin, saying that it will not accept the Western system of democracy and elections, according to an Urdu-language daily. The intra-Afghan talks are mandated as part of the U.S.-Taliban deal that was signed on February 29, 2020 in Doha. The talks are expected to give the Islamic Emirate a share of power in Kabul. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Why is Sirte everyone’s ‘red line’ in Libya?
 Libya’s coastal city of Sirte, a strategic gateway to major oil facilities, has emerged as a critical point of contention between Turkey and Russia, with France also scrambling to impede Turkey via NATO.

Egypt’s top fatwa authority raises controversy after describing Ottoman control of Constantinople as 'occupation'
 Egypt’s Dar al-Ifta described the Ottoman conquest of Constantinople as an invasion, raising controversy in Turkey and among critics who believe religious authorities should not get involved in politics.

U.S., IRAQ:
U.S.-Iraq Strategic Talks Launched With Increasing National, Regional Support
By John Doe, The National Interest: “The strategic dialogue between Iraq and the United States opened at 9 a.m. Eastern time on June 11 and continued for two hours. The first meeting in the series covered four major topics."

Special report: Inside the proxy battle that keeps an Iraqi city on its knees

WINEP’s Ben Fishman: Shifting tides in Libya require more active U.S. involvement

• Troubled Iran struggles to maintain sway over Iraq militias
  
• Institute for Science and International Security: The alleged nuclear weapons development site near Abadeh, Iran
  
• Institute for Science and International Security: Iran defies the International Atomic Energy Agency: The IAEA’s latest Iran safeguards report
  

• "Russian air defense systems outmatched by Turkish drones in Syria and Libya," Seth Frantzman, FDD's Long War Journal
  
• "Iran’s Islamic 'revolution has no borders,’ says Torkilmaz," Benjamin Weinthal, The Jerusalem Post
  

Iranians desperately need a better Voice of America
​Alireza Nader | Senior Fellow
Saeed Ghasseminejad | Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor

Yaakov Katz writes: This semiannual assessment is of particular importance on three counts. One is the prediction that none of Israel’s enemies – not Iran, Syria, Hezbollah nor Hamas – have any plans to initiate a war against the Jewish state in the coming year. Second is that ultimately, everything is about Iran, which continues to top any Israeli threat assessment due to its nuclear program, its continued support of terrorist proxies and its development and production of long-range ballistic missiles. – Jerusalem Post

Bobby Ghosh writes: Then, it was Haftar who walked away, gambling that he could get better terms at the gates of Tripoli. With the Egyptian cease-fire plan a non-starter, the rebel commander — the besieger turned besieged — might want to achieve a face-saving battlefield victory, or at least to grind down the GNA advance at Sirte, before he agrees to any deal. – Bloomberg

Michael Rubin writes:  The United Nations found that the Taliban continue to profit tremendously from heroin and the illegal narcotics trade, and that they have also moved into methamphetamine production and trafficking. All of it means that continuing the current peace deal empowers terrorists and drug cartels as cancerous to regional security as those in Mexico and Central America. Make no mistake: Wishful thinking now will kill American civilians later. – Washington Examiner

Javid Ahmad writes: For now, it is hard to imagine a way forward for Afghanistan. The running challenge is that the United States remains undecided about what it wants to do with Afghanistan. But whatever the U.S. decides in the coming months, the threat posed by overlapping alliances of the Taliban-allied jihadist groups should not be ignored. – The Hill

Nick Grinstead writes: It now seems clear that Iran is repositioning within Syria, rather than withdrawing, and that this is a result of a combination of factors, including the coronavirus. The repositioning should be viewed as a shift in priorities away from the east of Syria to the southwest, closer to Israel. It is likely that Iran felt that it had achieved its main objective of securing al-Mayadin and Abu Kamal and that paying for troops to stay there and get routinely hit by Israeli air strikes was no longer worth it. Further, the fact that NDF units in southern Raqqa did not receive their salaries for several months indicates that they were not a priority for Iran in the wake of the pandemic and that it was best to cut its losses in that area. – Middle East Institute

Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write: Economic and diplomatic competition between the United States and Iran is ramping up as both sides attempt to control the conditions leading up to the US-Iraq Strategic Dialogue in mid-June. Iran seeks to ensure that Iraq continues to import Iranian energy, a key economic driver for Iran’s sanctions-battered economy. Iraq relies on those imports to bolster its under-funded, often-strained electrical grid. The United States is aiming to reduce Iraqi reliance on Iranian imports by encouraging investments by US and allied companies and leveraging its sanctions waivers. – Institute for the Study of War

James A. Warren writes: The dream of re-establishing that caliphate remains strong in the hearts of the believers, while the fecklessness of the government in Iraq, and its failure to address the grievances of Sunni Muslims, who constitute about 20 percent of its population, only lend credence to predictions that ISIS will rise again in the very heart of the Middle East. – The Daily Beast ​

Christopher Hamill-Stewart writes: Soleimani’s death hurt Iran. It ushered in six months of foreign-policy failure, domestic strife during the coronavirus pandemic and a slow-motion economic collapse within Iran. Without the “shadow commander,” the regime’s grip on its proxies and regional influence appear to be in retreat. It would be premature, however, to count Tehran out completely. – Arab News
​
Kevjn Lim writes: Absent self-sufficiency and geopolitical stability, even a government with robust reserves would do well to diversify its grain supply basket, or at least be able to do so on short notice. In Tehran, however, guns are generally sexier than butter when it comes to making budgetary decisions and crafting foreign policy. This ethos leaves the country vulnerable to big supply shocks, food shortages, and spiraling prices that can produce effects no less momentous than wars. – Washington Institute

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The Syrian regime thought it was finally out of the woods in its almost decade-long civil war. It recaptured southern Syria in 2018 and has pushed up against US forces along the Euphrates. It has launched offensives into Idlib with Russian and Iranian backing. […]But the regime is gutted and weak. It has no finances and is fighting internally with family feuds within the Assad ruling clan. That means it is like a house of cards: very fragile. Russia can’t save the regime from everything. – Jerusalem Post

US general: Taliban not yet met conditions for US withdrawal

Thousands of Pakistanis fight in Afghanistan alongside the Taliban​
Pakistan continues to play its double game by supporting terror groups. Thousands of Pakistanis, including fighters from the Pakistan state-sponsored Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, as well as the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, continue to support the Taliban's jihad against the Afghan government.

Analysis: Taliban again denies presence of foreign fighters in Afghanistan
The Taliban's statement should raise deep concerns with U.S. officials about the group's reliability to be an effective counterterrorism partner against Al Qaeda and other terror groups.

“Better Turks than Latins!” – The Aftermath and the New City

US commander suggests sending military trainers to Tunisia after Russia sends aircraft to Libya
Backed by military contractors, Russia deployed military fighter jets to Al Jufra Airfield in Libya, prompting the US Army to consider sending military training personnel to neighboring Tunisia.

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/05/taliban-reluctant-to-publicly-break-with-al-qaeda-inspector-general-reports.php

Michel Foucault and Iran's Ayatollahs
By Dr. Reza Parchizadeh, May 28, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Islamic Revolution in Iran, which brought Islamists to power for the first time in modern history, pitted the global left—perhaps best personified by Michel Foucault—against the global right. To this day, the global left’s advocacy for Islamism continues to guide the West’s general approach toward the Middle East.
Continue to full article ->

Oman’s public sector reform risks brain drain
By letting go of thousands of foreign experts, Oman risks losing know-how central to achieve economic diversification.

Seth J. Frantzman writes: According to reports in Al-Ain media in the Gulf, which opposes Turkey’s role in the region, Ghannouchi has been favoring Ankara and seeking to support Turkey’s role in Libya. This appears to contradict his role as speaker, because he is not the head of state. Tunisians don’t want the speaker taking sides in Libya. […]The focus on Tunisia, by both Ankara and Abu Dhabi, would seem to indicate that what comes next is part of a larger regional struggle – and that it may impact Libya as well. – Jerusalem Post ​

South Sudan:  Hundreds Killed in Inter-communal Violence.  Since Saturday, at least 287 people, including a Doctors Without Borders staff member, have been killed in a spat of inter-communal violence, according to authorities. The violence, which is taking place in the Jonglei state, broke out on Saturday between the Murle and Lou Nuer ethnic communities.  Over 300 people are believed to be wounded  In February, a treaty was signed to end the country’s six-year civil war.  
​Al Jazeera BBC  ​

 Libyan government forces further advance against rogue leader 
Libyan pro-Government of National Accord (GNA) forces said on Thursday they have captured a key town south of Tripoli, marking another advance against eastern forces led by military strongman Gen. Khalifa Hifter. The town of al-Asabaa lies on the road leading to the city of Tarhuna, Hifter’s main stronghold. Meanwhile, the GNA launched five airstrikes in Tarhuna, according to a military spokesman. Hifter’s self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) has suffered a series of setbacks in recent weeks, with forces loyal to the government taking control earlier this week of the key al-Watiya air base southwest of Tripoli. This comes as the LNA’s air force chief Saqer al-Jaroushi threatened to attack Turkish interests in Libya since Ankara has significantly helped the UN-backed government resist the LNA's year-long attack on the capital. In turn, Turkish foreign ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy warned that any attack on Turkish assets in Libya “will have very grave consequences.”
Read More  ​

Netanyahu considers fourth elections, but ultra-Orthodox object
 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might be considering going to fourth elections, but his ultra-Orthodox allies won’t hear of that.

​Jerusalem, Jordan, and the Jews by Daniel Pipes
Israel Hayom
June 22, 2020
http://www.danielpipes.org/19600/jerusalem-jordan-and-the-jews

Israel's new government

Did Gantz Break the Blue and White Party
 In this week’s "On Israel" podcast, MK Ofer Shelah gives his thoughts on the recent unity government between Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party and Benny Gantz’s Blue & White Coalition.

Yossi Melman writes:  Netanyahu also remembers how Yitzhak Shamir’s government fell in wake of the first intifada. But today’s Netanyahu is different: more messianic, more anxious, more sure of himself, more eager to go down in history as the one who established “Greater Israel.” If this is really his position, he will also ignore the fact that Israel is in the grips of a major economic crisis and that annexation would mean realizing Yasser Arafat’s dream of one state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. – Haaretz

Amos Yadlin writes: And in any event, even if there were no costs for the annexation process, such a move is blatantly anti-Zionist and will prevent the possibility of future separation from the Palestinians while safeguarding Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure and moral state. – Ynet

Israel's Flight from South Lebanon 20 Years On
By Prof. Efraim Karsh and Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, May 22, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel’s May 2000 rushed evacuation of its security zone in south Lebanon and the desertion of its longstanding local allies there tarnished the Jewish State’s deterrent posture and helped spark a string of large-scale armed confrontations with Hezbollah (2006), the PLO (the so-called “al-Aqsa Intifada”), and Hamas (2008/9, 2012, 2014). The withdrawal transformed south Lebanon into an ineradicable terror entity that can harass northern Israel at will and expedited Hezbollah’s evolvement into a formidable military power armed with 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of reaching anywhere in Israel. It also dented the IDF’s fighting ethos and operational competence, as illustrated by its lukewarm performance during the Second Lebanon War (2006) and Operation Protective Edge (2014).
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Despite trial, Netanyahu's popularity soaring
Despite the opening of his trail, and despite failures in prior elections, the popularity of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu keeps soaring.

Israel and the Great Powers: The View from Beijing by Wang Jin
Middle East Quarterly
Spring 2020 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/60504/israel-and-the-great-powers-view-from-beijing

Putin appoints third special envoy to Syria
Putin's decision to appoint a new special envoy for developing relations with Syria likely has several aims, including to balance military and diplomatic involvement in Russia's Syria policy.

​The Return to the Era of Spheres of Influence in Eurasia
By Emil Avdaliani, May 21, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Geopolitical trends of the last two decades show that pivotal states in Eurasia are working to recreate their zones of influence. In so doing, they are challenging the US, which implies a corresponding challenge to the existing world order. Though Washington will be able to limit some powers’ ambitions, it has few tools with which to hamper the ambitions of Russia, China, and Iran.
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​Iran’s new push to erase its millennia of Jewish history
Alireza Nader

​A Peace Treaty Is Not a License to Extort
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, May 31, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: For years, Egypt and Jordan have exploited their peace treaties with Israel as a tool of extortion to prevent Israel from pursuing its security and political interests.
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​The unlearned ‘nakba’ lesson about compromise
The Palestinians aren’t just reliving the “disaster” of their losing war to prevent Israel’s birth. By refusing to negotiate, they’ve ensured that their losses will continue to grow.
JONATHAN S. TOBIN

It’s not about Assad
Russia’s alleged displeasure with Assad and Iran in Syria has gotten a lot of attention recently in Western and some Arab media. Yet, saying that Moscow is having a change of heart at this very moment, let alone is willing to publicly broadcast this to Damascus, may be a bit premature.
Read blog post

Salafism Meets Populism: The Al-Karama Coalition and the Malleability of Political Salafism in Tunisia
Jasmin Lorch, Hatem Chakroun

Spring 2020 Issue

Gantz introduces Israel's first female ultra-Orthodox minister
Blue and White leader Benny Gantz has tapped legislator Omer Yankelevich as diaspora minister in the new unity government, the first ultra-Orthodox woman to lead a ministry.

​Decentralization push sparks fears of division in Iraqi Kurdistan
Sulaimaniyah’s pursuit of enhanced self-governance has stoked concerns over the Iraqi Kurds’ hard-won unity as economic woes strain their autonomous region.

PKK attacks Turkish military base in Kurdistan Region of Iraq
 The attack comes amid intra-Kurdish tensions in Iraq over the PKK's and Turkey's presence in the country.

Why transatlantic relations are in trouble
Dalibor Rohac | The American Interest

Biden’s Revival of Obama’s Middle East Policies Won’t Bring PeaceJust a rerun of past failures with the added disgrace of renewed American acquiescence to Palestinian terror
By JONATHAN S. TOBIN

The Jordan Valley Annexation Dilemma: A Realistic Approach
By Col (Res.) Dr. Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen, May 13, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The declared intention of the new Israeli government to pave the way for the implementation of sovereignty in certain parts of the West Bank, with the blessing of the Trump administration, is prompting vigorous debate. The dark prophecies by “liberal” Israelis as well as EU officials about the dire consequences that would result from annexation are exaggerated, and they obscure the vital strategic value of the Jordan Valley for Israel’s security.
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Siraj Wahhaj Seeks My Validation  by Daniel Pipes
May 12, 2020
http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2020/05/siraj-wahhaj-seeks-my-validation

Why there’s no justice for Malki Roth
The need to keep radicals and Islamists out of power in Jordan continues to foil efforts to force the extradition of an unrepentant Palestinian murderer.
JONATHAN S. TOBIN

Israel: The Settlements Are Not Illegal
The annexation of lands in Judea and Samaria is not contrary to international lawby Michael Calvo  

• At the 2019 Jewish Leadership Conference, we were privileged to host former Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger for a conversation on what his distinguished career has taught him about great statesmen and able statesmanship.
• Last December, we hosted leading foreign policy expert Walter Russell Mead for a wide-ranging conversation on American foreign policy and the Middle East.
• Back in January 2019, Hudson Institute scholar Michael Doran took t0 the pages of our online publication, Mosaic, to provide the most comprehensive assessment of the Trump Administration's Middle East strategy anywhere on the web.

"Tunisia’s ‘war against an invisible enemy’," Benjamin Weinthal, FDD Policy Brief

AEI’s Michael Rubin: Iran's navy is dying a slow death

Iran has begun withdrawing forces from Syria, Israel’s departing defence minister Naftali Bennett said on Monday. Mr Bennett also urged his successor, Benny Gantz, to maintain pressure on Iran, saying Iran’s pull-out could be reversed. – The National

Ehud Yaari writes: When striving to subdue civilian populations, the Syrian army tends to rely on ranged firepower rather than infantry assaults. If these indiscriminate tactics are applied in Deraa, the death toll could be very steep.[…] In addition, these dynamics would pave the way for Iran to bolster its local proxies (e.g., “Battalion 313”) and entice unemployed youths to enlist by offering them salaries—perhaps including some of the 7,000 former rebels who used to receive assistance from the Israel Defense Forces. This could in turn give the IRGC and Hezbollah an opportunity to increase their own presence in Deraa’s western countryside facing the Golan, a longstanding Israeli redline. – Washington Institute

Ammar Shams Aldin writes: The notion of separation of powers in the constitution is designed to hinder the aggregation of political and economic power. Syria’s economy will continue to suffer until political power is constrained and directed toward limited objectives. The hope is that a new constitution, if taken seriously and properly implemented, will help Syria transition from a state whose institutions, rules, and policies depend on the dictates of its leadership to one where the distribution of power is restructured so that the lower levels of government can take on a greater role. – Middle East Institute

Against the backdrop of the high tension between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, the Saudi daily ‘Okaz published an unusually harsh article by Sattam bin Hadbaa mocking Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. […]Through this story, the writer implies that Erdogan, too, dreams of leading the world and renewing the glory of the Ottoman empire, but in reality he is more like a gang-leader who exploits the fools who admire him. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Bilal Y. Saab and Mick Mulroy write: It will not be easy for the GCC states. They cannot afford to increasingly challenge the current U.S. administration on Iran, because it might double down on its latest decision to withdraw some Patriot missile defense batteries from Saudi Arabia and pull out all American troops and equipment stationed on their territory. The U.S. already threatened to do that, had Saudi Arabia not stopped its recent oil price war with Russia. – Middle East Institute

​Tom Rogan writes: China’s new rhetoric is simply about buying time. So, yes, we should expect more pleasant words from Beijing toward international organizations. But when it comes to the crunch, those words will be divorced from any significant positive action. As is always and ever the case with the Chinese Communist Party, it ultimately cares only about self-preservation. – Washington Examiner

Generation Jihad Ep. 10: Endless Jihad
Hosts Bill Roggio and Tom Joscelyn discuss the “endless wars” narrative, explaining why it is more accurate to call the conflicts unleashed by 9/11 an “endless jihad.”

Taliban ‘reluctant to publicly break with al Qaeda,’ Inspector General reports
According to a new report by the Lead Inspector General for Operation Freedom’s Sentinel, U.S. officials have assessed that the Taliban is "reluctant to publicly break with al Qaeda," while Pakistan continues to harbor senior Taliban leaders, including the Haqqanis. The report confirms that the Taliban went on the offensive following the Feb. 29 withdrawal agreement with the U.S.

​Taliban emir demands ‘Islamic government’ for Afghansitan
Mullah Haibatullah, the leader of the Afghan Taliban and its Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, again called for the establishment of an "Islamic government" and the imposition of the group's harsh versions of sharia

Who Really Represents America’s Jews?
A conflict over a new leader threatens a storied organization
by Jonathan S. Tobin

US Deports Al Qaeda Terrorist to India.  U.S. Intelligence officials announced Thursday that convicted Al Qaeda terrorist Mohammed Ibrahim Zubair, found guilty of raising funds for the terrorist organization in the United States, has been deported to India after completing his sentence.  Zubair, an engineer from Hyderabad, was arrested in 2011 on charges of terror financing.  He was convicted for raising money for Al Qaeda leader Anwar al-Awlaki in 2009.  He was deported along with 167 other Indian deportees.  The English Post International Business Times

Rival Afghan leaders strike a power-sharing deal, but there are plenty of other obstacles on the road to peace
There was no other way to end the political logjam in conflict-ridden Afghanistan than to make President Ashraf Ghani and outgoing Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah agree to share power. The deal has been welcomed by the international community, but there are deeper obstacles to the peace process. 
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MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE Spring 2020 Issue

Israel steps up military campaign against Iran’s military entrenchment in Syria

Generation Jihad Ep. 8 – The Islamic State’s Foundational Texts

Analysis: The Islamic State’s ideological campaign against al-Qaeda

Analysis: Islamic State claims al-Qaeda started a war in West Africa

Analysis: Soleimani’s last will and testament

Turkey targets US-backed Syrian Kurdish peace talks
 Turkey is openly disgruntled over the US-backed effort to unite disparate Syrian Kurdish factions that kicked off last month.

The Taliban Is Still the Main Driver of Violence in Afghanistan

Beijing is seeking to expel the US from the South China Sea

Jonathan Schanzer: Iranian Missiles "Likely to Be the Cause of the Middle East's Next War"
by Gary C. Gambill
May 12, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60908/schanzer-the-cause-of-the-middle-easts-next-war

 https://www.meforum.org/60908/schanzer-the-cause-of-the-middle-easts-next-war

Karl Kaltenthaler writes: Despite the challenges, Iraq and the United States do have a viable framework for a strategic dialogue that they can build upon existing agreements. […]Iraq needs a United States committed to its security and the United States needs an Iraq that views the United States as a partner and friend. In any case, a strategic dialogue is the place to start and both sides have every reason to define a new relationship that can lead to a lasting strategic partnership. – Washington Institute ​

Zvi Bar’el writes: Over 20 years ago, a new generation of rulers, like the king of Jordan, the king of Morocco and the president of Syria fueled hopes that these young leaders, all in their thirties then, would institute democratic regimes (or at least regimes that were more open and transparent), that they would adopt policies to protect human rights and carry out major economic reforms. Now the next generation of leaders that includes 39-year-old Qatari ruler Tamim bin Hamad and 34-year-old Prince Mohammed is showing yet again that political tradition is stronger than any new spirit. – Haaretz

Mohammed Alshuwaiter writes: Legitimacy is the ultimate foundation of authority that confers on the government the right to enforce the law. If Hadi and his government continue on their current path, their legitimacy will vanish. Were that to happen, the people of Yemen would find themselves in a very complicated situation, facing the dilemma of how to agree on a new framework for legitimacy and plunging the country into yet more conflict. – Middle East Institute

A team of Western mercenaries linked with two Dubai-based companies was briefly deployed to Libya to assist Russian-backed strongman Khalifa Haftar in his offensive to capture Tripoli, according to a confidential UN report, underscoring how the country’s proxy war has become a magnet for hired guns. – Bloomberg

Tanya Goudsouzian writes: Among the Russians, the Chinese, the Iranians and the United States, it’s yet to be seen who will win. It may be a single victor or an uneasy accommodation among the syndicates dividing up the spoils. They may fight economically but cooperate diplomatically. But regardless of how those countries collude or compete, without a fundamental re-examination and reformulation of the military-forward approach employed, the winner is unlikely to be the US. – The National Interest

Rolling Back Iran in Iraq
By John Toolan Jr., RealClearDefense: "Iranian proxies in Iraq are pinning ISIS’s resurgence on the United States. Iran’s longtime goal has been to undermine America’s regional commitment and provoke U.S. attacks that draw Iraqi condemnation. The United States should avoid a tit-for-tat with Iran or its proxies and instead launch a concerted effort to roll back Iran’s military presence in the country."

Keep Expectations Modest for Iraq’s New Government
By Douglas A. Ollivant, War on the Rocks: "“Iraq is like a race car that has been neglected and repeatedly wrecked. Al-Kadhimi is not the race car driver. He’s the tow truck driver.”"

Eli Lake writes: There is no single event that has caused Iran’s current loss of influence in Iraq. Nationwide protests against corruption and Iranian influence, as well as internal strife within and among Iranian-backed militias, helped Kadhimi’s rise. At the same time, Soleimani’s death was a factor. […]If that’s true, it’s a positive development — not just for Iraq but for the entire Middle East. – Bloomber

Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write: Despite worsening political acrimony, Kadhimi maintains broad Sunni and Kurdish support in Parliament and will likely be able to satisfy enough Shi’a blocs to ascend to the office of prime minister with a partial cabinet. Because of their shared interest in Kadhimi’s success, Iran and the US confined their competition to other lines of effort ahead of the June US-Iraq strategic dialogue, thereby creating enough space for Iraq’s political elites to negotiate government formation. – Institute for the Study of War

Collecting and analyzing Shiite militia attacks against the U.S. presence in Iraq

Five Priorities for the U.S.-Iraq Strategic Dialogue
Include Recognizing Regional Role for Iraq
From Al-Monitor: “Kadhimi benefits from strong ties with all of Iraq's constituencies and power centers, as well as the goodwill of Washington, Tehran, the Gulf and all key regional capitals."

Don’t let ‘strategic dialogue’ sink Iraq
Michael Rubin | RealClearDefense
To simply repeat in Iraq the precipitous withdrawals Trump ordered in Syria and Afghanistan and President Obama oversaw in Iraq will empower Iran and undercut the most competent leadership team postwar Iraq has had.

• Bloomberg’s Eli Lake: Iran is losing its grip in Iraq
  
• WINEP’s Simon Henderson: Has Trump finally lost patience with the Saudis?
  

UN report finds evidence of Russian mercenaries deployed in Libya 
United Nations experts confirmed that a Russian private military contractor has recruited between 800 and 1,200 mercenaries to fight alongside Libya’s eastern military strongman Khalifa Hifter, according to a report obtained by the Associated Press. The panel of experts monitoring sanctions against Libya said the Wagner Group, which is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has mainly recruited Syrian fighters. This was the first UN confirmation of claims that Hifter is supported by hundreds of Russian mercenaries in his offensive against the UN-backed government in Tripoli, which in turn is supported by Syrian fighters recruited by Turkey.
Read More  
apnews.com

The U.S.-Iraqi Relationship Is Coming to a Head—and That’s a Good Thing
​After 17 years, there is little love left between Washington and Baghdad. Upcoming talks may be the last opportunity to save their dysfunctional partnership.

• This Afghan General fought the Taliban for years. Now he has joined them.
  
• Indian and Chinese troops in scuffle on disputed border
  
• WaPo’s David Ignatius: Russia’s scavenger diplomacy is in full effect in the Middle East
  

Jeremy Hodge writes: Moscow’s inability to control Iranian backed Syrian militiamen engaged in widespread crime, corruption, and assaults on Russian forces has infuriated the Kremlin. But Russia is not the only major player on the ground with scores to settle against Iran, and the Russian military leadership in Syria has ignored if not largely encouraged Israeli strikes on Iranian troops throughout the country. […]Ironically, Erdoğan’s long-held desire to overthrow Syria’s president may still come to fruition, albeit not as he expected, as Assad’s ouster may come at the hands of Russia itself, and not the revolution. – The Daily Beast 
​
Will Todman writes: Extremist groups would benefit from increased instability in Syria. They have already used Covid-19 to their rhetorical advantage to the detriment of the United States’ reputation in the region. Non-state actors in the Middle East, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, have filled gaps in state services to gain influence. […]Finally, the centralization of aid in Damascus would further degrade the principle of unimpeded humanitarian access and undermine U.S. leadership on the issue. This precedent could carry implications for humanitarian operations in other conflict areas. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Michael Rubin writes: Optimists may hope that Erdogan’s defeat in Istanbul last year signals that Turks can reclaim their country and that democracy can still check Erdogan’s desire to rule for life and perhaps turn the reins of power over to his son or son-in-law. But the lesson Erdogan appears to have taken is not that he must listen to the people, but rather, he must punish Istanbul and become more ruthless in weeding out political opposition, real or imagined. – Washington Examiner
​
Seth J. Frantzman writes: In the past, Iran has used Turkey to get around US sanctions and Iran has even sought to use Turkey as a transit for goods destined for the Syrian regime and Hezbollah. Much of that has changed during the Syrian civil war, but Iran’s overall goal in the region is to work with Turkey to divide up the Middle East. – Jerusalem Post

Benjamin Weil writes: Enforcing counterterrorism laws and laws regarding the funding of terrorist organizations are also crucial. […]If we let Hezbollah gain more power and influence in Lebanon it would lead to greater conflicts across the Middle East. Alternatively, if we wait to bail out the country at a point where Hezbollah is already too strong, Hezbollah might get the credit for the financial recovery – this will only fuel the organization’s credibility in the minds of the people. Much like the coronavirus, we must act now and act hard before we lose control of the situation. – Jerusalem Post
​
Danielle Pletka writes: Long story short, Lebanon’s slow-motion collapse promises repercussions few can bother contemplating when minds are focused on pandemic-related foreign policy. But the notion that the erstwhile Lebanese state is soon to become a hybrid Iranian-Chinese bot from which all with means flee, and to which all with malign aims flock, seems a catastrophe worth minding. If not, Lebanon promises to join the ranks of Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and others in becoming yet another nexus of global threat and local misery. – The Dispatch

Options for a United States Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa
By Damimola Olawuyi, Divergent Options: "For the foreseeable future, any foreign policy towards Africa will need a robust counter terrorism component."

Turkey and the Libyan and Syrian Civil Wars
By Col. (res.) Dr. Dan Gottlieb and Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar, May 4, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is constantly looking for opportunities to enhance its status as a regional superpower and promote its Islamist ideology in the Arab Middle East. Libya is the newest arena in which Erdoğan is trying to capitalize on inter-Arab rivalries, this time in service to his desire to lay claim to gas under the seabed of the Mediterranean.
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​Tunisia extends state of emergency another month 
Tunisia announced on Wednesday that the state of emergency in force since 2015 will be extended by an additional month, according to a presidential statement. The announcement coincides with the government’s plan to ease the coronavirus-linked lockdown beginning next week. Tunisia has been under a state of emergency since November 2015, when a suicide bombing in Tunis claimed by the Islamic State killed 12 presidential guards.
Read More  
africa.cgtn.com

Kenneth Pollack assesses the appointment of Mustafa al-Khadimi, an Iraqi nationalist selected with the task of forming a government, and concludes that if there were ever a moment to build a strong independent Iraq, the time is now. Mustafa Kadhimi may be the last, best hope to begin moving Iraq in a better direction. Shouldn’t we help him help us? Read here.

Following last week’s disarray in oil markets, Karen Young took to Al-Monitor to explain that the problem of weak demand for energy products combined with a fear of a slow Chinese economic recovery pose a major concern for Gulf oil producers. The volatility in energy prices is a reflection of the uneven nature of global demand recovery and any expected reopening of national economies. Thus, Gulf producers must navigate an angry White House and Congress (with the threat of tariffs), uncertainty regarding Asian partners, and demand due to the pandemic. Learn more here.

West Africa hosts a network of Salafi-jihadi groups that is expanding as local conditions deteriorate. In a new AEI report, Katherine Zimmerman analyzes how the Sahel-based Salafi-jihadi groups coordinate and cooperate across organizational divides to create an ecosystem of ideology and terror. In an interactive graphic, Zimmerman displays how the groups’ coordinated effort to transform Sahelian society and governance into their vision under Islam has helped destabilize the region and has created opportunities for Salafi-jihadi growth. Read the full report here and view the interactive graphic here.

International crises that predate the coronavirus pandemic in Syria, Libya, and West Africa are getting worse with negative implications to US national security. In a RealClearWorld op-ed, Emily Estelle argues that the wars in Syria and Libya are creating conditions for which the US is unprepared and potential geopolitical crises in African states are at the verge of exacerbating. The US will wake up from its COVID-19 nightmare to renewed national security horrors if our leaders fail to take the right lesson from the pandemic: The best policy is one of early recognition and preemptive action. Read it here.

WINEP’s Farzin Nadimi: Iran's evolving approach to asymmetric naval warfare

Farzin Nadimi writes: The study, which includes maps, tables, and other graphics, covers everything from submarines to sea mines, while also distinguishing between the roles of the revolutionary navy (IRGCN) and the conventional one (IRIN). Most important, it offers a sober take on Iran’s capabilities and intentions during a perilously unstable time. – Washington Institute

Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write: Iraq’s political elites are conditioning their support for Prime Minister (PM)-designate Mustafa al-Kadhimi on the composition of his cabinet. The widening rift between Kadhimi and Iran-backed blocs has led Kadhimi to preserve the traditional system of ethno-sectarian quota filling, to marginalize protester demands, and to step up his comments about the “unjustified foreign [US] presence” in an attempt to mend ties. Behind the scenes, the US and Iran have continued their competition to influence Iraq’s future – Institute for the Study of War

eth J. Frantzman writes: The reduction of the Iraqi army presence and outsourcing of border security and raids to the PMU has the result of enabling sectarian militias to run the borders of Iraq, as opposed to the more unifying aspects of the Iraqi army. Despite years of training the Iraqi army to conduct anti-ISIS operations, it appears the PMU wants to keep the lion’s share of these operations to themselves, controlling rural areas and using the control to further political and economic goals. – Jerusalem Post

Sheikh Sadiq Al-Ghariani, who is regarded by the Muslim Brotherhood as the Grand Mufti of Libya, said in a video that aired on Al-Tanasuh TV (Libya) on April 15, 2020, that shari’a permits suicide bombings on the condition that they rattle the enemy, cause great harm and losses to the enemy, and cause a crushing defeat. – Middle East Media Research Institute

The fight to build America’s next missile interceptor has officially begun. The Missile Defense Agency on Friday released its request for proposal for its Next-Generation Interceptor (NGI). The RFP aims to downselect to two companies who will then compete for the right to build the interceptor, which will form the core of America’s homeland missile defense going forward. – Defense News

Thomas G. Mahnken writes: We need to learn from the past in developing the next generation of weapons. For example, in recent months, Australian defense analysts have discussed the attractiveness of the B-21 Raider stealth bomber for Australia’s defense needs. Export of the B-21 to a close ally such as Australia, should Canberra so desire, should be given serious consideration. The current situation is challenging, with even more difficult times to come. If we are smart, however, we can both keep Americans at work and get what we need for national defense. – Defense New

Trump Can Either Leave the Middle East or Have War With Iran
By Trita Parsi, RealClearDefense: "Mindful of the dwindling importance of Middle East oil to the U.S. and the U.S.’s lack of resources and expertise to “fix” dysfunctional states in that region, the cost-benefit analysis of retaining military hegemony in the Middle East no longer makes sense."

In Defense of Deterrence
By Michael Rühle, National Institute for Public Policy: "As the international environment is characterized by increased competition, the concept of deterrence, after over two decades of having received scant attention in the West, has re-entered the strategic lexicon."

Coronavirus Threatens to Drive Wedge into US-Gulf Relations
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, May 4, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: It is early days, but first indications are that the global coronavirus pandemic is entrenching long-drawn Middle Eastern geopolitical, political, ethnic, and sectarian battle lines rather than serving as a vehicle to build bridges and boost confidence. Gulf states are taking contradictory approaches to the problem of ensuring that entrenched conflicts do not spiral out of control as they battle the pandemic and struggle to cope with the economic fallout.
Continue to full article ->

COVID-19 in Libya

Pakistan’s Pandemic Response: Faith, Federalism, and the Challenge Ahead with Madiha Afzal

Hanin Ghaddar on Weakening Hezbollah's Control of Lebanon by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Radio
April 21, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60721/ghaddar-weakening-hezbollah-control-of-lebanon

Algeria’s ‘Revolution of Smiles’ Democracy Movement Hit Hard by COVID-19

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
Support for Full Withdrawal From Afghanistan Grows
By Leo Shane III, Military Times: “Nearly three-quarters of veterans surveyed and almost 70 percent of troops' family members support a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, according to a new poll from a conservative activist group released Wednesday."
RUSSIA:
Russia Field Testing Its New Armata Tank in Syria
By Kyle Mizokami, Popular Mechanics: “The Russian government has revealed that its new T-14 Armata main battle tank was shipped to Syria for use under “field conditions.

Russian Modernization of Its ICBM Force
By Mark B. Schneider, RealClearDefense: "Since 1997, Russia has been modernizing its ICBMs by replacing legacy Soviet ICBMs with new (post-Cold War) systems. In December 2019, Colonel General Sergei Karakayev, commander of Russia’s ICBM force (the Strategic Missile Force or RVSN) stated that 76% of Russia’s ICBM force had been modernized and that 100% would be by 2024."

Future Systems: A Road Forward for National Security
By Kimberly Aftergood, RealClearDefense: "When it comes to government IT modernization, the stakes are higher in national security, where the ability to maintain competitive advantage has significant real-world impact."

Aligning America’s Ends and Means in the Indo-Pacific
By Bradley Bowman & John Hardie, Defense News: "The U.S. combatant command responsible for the Indo-Pacific region warned in a report last month that it lacks the resources and capabilities necessary to implement the National Defense Strategy. This mismatch between ends and means endangers American interests and invites Beijing to pursue opportunistic aggression.” ​