CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR - CounterStrikeMedia

WHY DOES PAKISTAN FLIRT WITH ISRAEL; EMERGENT INDIGENOUS LEADERSHIP IN AFGHANISTAN, AL-QAEDA LEADERSHIP ISN'T HEALTHY ANYMORE & A LOOK AT THE MIDDLE EAST QUARTERLY

8/25/2019

KHAN'S REPORT CARD 13 MONTHS IN

HOW DOES PAKISTAN ENVISION ITS FUTURE

Pakistan Flirts with a Strong Israel by Efraim Inbar
Haaretz
September 7, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59332/pakistani-interest-in-normalization-with-israel

ASIA TIMES: ISLAMABAD & JERUSALEM JOIN HANDS

The U.S.-Taliban Negotiations: A Deadly Qatari Trap by Yigal Carmon

EMERGENCE OF OTHER POLITICAL LEADERSHIP IN AFGHANISTAN

MEQ

The real risks of allowing terrorist safe havens
Hal Brands | Bloomberg
Do safe havens matter or not? The truth is that denying such sanctuaries is crucial to effective counterterrorism, so long as some key caveats and distinctions are kept in mind

Don’t Sign a Death Warrant for Afghan Democracy by Ioannis Koskinas

Stakes in Afghanistan Demand Transparency
Bradley Bowman | CMPP Senior Director
Bill Roggio | Senior Fellow and Editor of FDD's Long War Journal

Remembering why we are at war in Afghanistan
(Military Times) As we close in on two decades of war in Afghanistan and search for an end to the conflict, perhaps we ought first to go back to its origins and recognize a fundamental truth.

HOW CHINA UNDERWRITES EGYPT: CHINA'S ONE-BELT-ONE-ROAD HITS THE MIDDLE EAST AUTOCRATS

8/21/2019

Will There Be a New Russian-Chinese Security Architecture in the Gulf?
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, September 13, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Russia, backed by China, is hoping to exploit mounting doubts in the Persian Gulf about the reliability of the US as the region’s sole security guarantor. It is proposing a radical overhaul of the security architecture in the area, which is home to massive oil and gas reserves and some of the world’s most strategic waterways.
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Egypt sentences Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader to life in prison
Egypt on Wednesday handed down prison sentences against leaders of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, charging them with spying for foreign organizations and financing terrorism. The court sentenced 11 people, including Muslim Brotherhood spiritual guide Mohammed Badie, to life in prison. Five others received jail terms ranging from seven to 10 years. Egyptian authorities have been leading a crackdown against thousands of Muslim Brotherhood supporters since the ouster of the late President Mohammed Morsi in 2013. Read More
middleeasteye.net

Haisam Hassanein writes: China has become an essential component of Sisi’s agenda at home and abroad. Without its financing and expertise, showpiece projects like the new administrative capital and a new Suez Canal industrial zone are unlikely to get off the ground. In return, China wants to take advantage of Egypt’s position in the Arab world and Africa to facilitate bilateral and collective cooperation in both regions, including on projects that further the BRI. All of this should worry the United States, especially since China could use its access to Egyptian ports to improve its standing in the Middle East and potentially gather intelligence on U.S. interests, similar to Washington’s concerns about Israel’s Haifa port. – Washington Institute

Michael Bennon writes: At this year’s BRI forum, Chinese officials stated that they would push for more transparency in BRI projects. This is laudable. But transparency in international finance should not be subject only to the bilateral policies of lending nations. It should also be enforced by international institutions, like the IMF. The IMF did miss an opportunity in Pakistan this summer, but it wasn’t to prevent or ring-fence a bailout. The IMF should have simply required transparency in the form of published contracts as a precondition for IMF support. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Egypt seeks to increase exports to Africa
Despite figures indicating an increase in the Egyptian exports to Africa, there still seem to be several obstacles facing Egyptian exports to the continent.

NETANYAHU IS MORE JABOTINSKY THAN BEN GURION

8/19/2019

Netanyahu: More a Jabotinsky than a Begin or a Ben-Gurion
By Dr. Gil Samsonov, August 18, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In favoring the political over the military approach, Benjamin Netanyahu is the direct successor of Ze’ev Jabotinsky, who espoused the political Zionism of forging an alliance with a world power. Netanyahu’s outlook is evident in his conflict management strategy vis-à-vis the PLO, Hamas, and Hezbollah while focusing on fighting Israel’s foremost enemy, Iran. Even there Netanyahu has preferred the path of political struggle, in cooperation with the US, and the use of sanctions over war.
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Comparing Netanyahu and Ben-Gurion
By Prof. Shmuel Sandler, August 30, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In a recent landmark, Benjamin Netanyahu became Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, surpassing the tenure of David Ben-Gurion. A comparison of the two PMs’ leadership reveals points of both similarity and difference. Both leaders, even in the views of their opponents, left a major impact on the country and the society.
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Israel Meets With UAE, Declares It’s Joining Persian Gulf Coalition
Foreign Minister Israel Katz told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee about the agreement, and told lawmakers that Israel participates in intelligence and other areas where it can offer capabilities and advantages.

THE FUTURE STRUCTURE OF THE YEMENI STATE, 40 YEARS OF IRANIAN WAR ON US, IRAN'S COLLAPSING ECONOMY & WHY IRAN WANTS PRESIDENT BIDEN

8/10/2019

Islamist-inspired Terrorism Returns to Yemen by Con Coughlin

Yemen government begins indirect talks with separatists
Yemen’s internationally recognized government and separatist forces started indirect talks in the Saudi city of Jeddah on Wednesday to discuss ways to end their conflict in southern Yemen. The separatists, backed by the United Arab Emirates, seized control of the temporary capital Aden last month, threatening to unravel the Arab coalition fighting the Iran-backed Houthis. “The situation is very difficult and complicated but we hope to achieve some progress,” a senior Yemeni official said. Attempts at solving the rift have previously failed, with President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi’s government refusing to meet with the separatists unless they hand over the positions they have seized in southern Yemen. Read More 

The Future Structure of the Yemeni State
Profound questions about Yemen's future remain unanswered, and before negotiations can move forward the rival parties will likely need to address the elephant in the room: the future structure of Yemen as a state.
Read report

Forty Years of Iranian Intolerance
by Denis MacEoin

THE GREAT GAME RE-VISITED, US TURNS AWAY FROM SOUTH WEST ASIA; GRAND STRATEGY OF THE TALIBAN

7/26/2019

Pakistani Prime Ministers, in two different types of confinementIn Pakistan, a former Prime Minister sits angry and brooding in jail while the current one sits cornered and trapped by a failing economy; India’s move in Kashmir and an opposition that refuses to be silenced

Sitting behind bars in Kot Lakhpat Jail in Lahore, Nawaz Sharif, businessman, politician and former Prime Minister of Pakistan, is fighting the toughest battle of his life against the country’s security establishment, writes Imad Zafar.

But, says Zafar, the same can be said for Pakistan’s establishment, which is facing the most difficult challenges of its 70 years of hegemony.

The Pakistani establishment, which is trying hard to end the country’s diplomatic isolation while facing multiple other challenges – including India’s move to annex Kashmir, a shrinking economy and rampant inflation – wants to cut a deal with Sharif.

Sharif gets released from jail but agrees to then go into exile in London.

But Sharif, writes Zafar, has indicated he intends to stay in Pakistan and instead wants certain members of the establishment and the judiciary to confess publicly that they ousted him from power deliberately and rigged the ballot to keep him out of office.

‘Probably Khan and a few people from the security establishment will come hard at Sharif in a bid to regain the lost battle, but it is too late,’ argues Zafar. ‘If Sharif did not surrender in the toughest of times, he will never do it now when the writing is clearly on the wall that it is all over for Imran Khan and his backers in the establishment.’

Ali Salman Andani says it in far stronger terms. Pakistan, says Andani, after the completion of Imran Khan’s first year in power, 'is standing on the brink of an economic collapse.' And Khan, says Andani, must think that putting 'the entire opposition behind bars will be enough to hide his incompetence, ignorance and highly authoritarian mindset.’

Sagarneel Sinha writes here that Kashmir is an issue that Khan will try to use to ‘boost his own image after his failure to implement the dreams of "Naya Pakistan" (New Pakistan) that he sold before last year’s election.’

Sinha argues that Kashir has been an emotional issue for Pakistanis and ‘their governments over the years have milked this issue to divert the attention of the public from internal issues and turn them against "anti-Muslim Hindu-supremacist India.” The present approach of Imran Khan is no different.’

But despite the emotional rhetoric, Sinha says Imran Khan should already know the truth.
‘India under his friend Modi,’ writes Sinha, ‘has checkmated Pakistan on Kashmir. However, Khan has no other option but to make as much noise as possible on the issue of Kashmir. This, concludes Sinha, is because he ‘doesn’t want to become another Nawaz Sharif.’

Read the full stories on Asia Times
Pakistani establishment facing historic challenge by Imad Zafar
Occupant of Pakistan’s Prime Minister House is a tyrant by Ali Salman Andani
Imran stressing Kashmir to save his own position by Sagarneel Sinha

The Afghanistan war is over, and Pakistan has won Michael Rubin | The National Interest

KHAN IS LOSING PAKISTAN

HOW KHAN IS LOSING PAKISTAN

WHAT OF INDIAN FEDERALISM

Pakistan’s Kashmir hypocrisy
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner
Pakistan has little authority to complain about India’s decision to change Kashmir’s status.

ASIA TIMES: HOW INDIA'S MOVE ON KASHMIR DAMAGES THE DEEP STATE IN PAKISTAN

MOSCOW & ISLAMABAD REIGNITE RELATIONS OVER KASHMIR

HOW INDIA FITS INTO US SECURITY ARCHITECTURE

The Great Game Reinvigorated:
Geopolitics, Afghanistan, and the Importance of Pakistan
By Mark Gilchrist, Strategy Bridge: "As a peace agreement in Afghanistan becomes increasingly plausible it is important for America to focus on maximising long-term interests to retain a position of relative advantage and enduring influence in the region after the Afghan mission is complete."

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
As U.S. Presses Negotiations, Taliban Promotes Training of Fighters and Attacks
By Bill Roggio, FDD's Long War Journal: "In the Taliban’s latest video, which was released today on its official Website, Voice of Jihad, the group shows its fighters training for war as well as a montage of attacks on Afghan and Coalition forces."

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/07/un-islamic-state-replaced-leader-in-afghanistan-after-visit-from-central-leadership.php

The (Other) Continent We Can’t Defend
By Elizabeth Buchanan, the interpreter: "China has no real incentive to practice restraint on a continent it invests billions in (from technical expertise, personnel training, to new icebreakers) and on which it recognises no territorial claims."

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/07/taliban-ied-blast-kills-35-civilians-in-western-afghanistan.php

Net Assessment: Explaining Mission Creep in Afghanistan
by Rick Berger, Bryan McGrath, and Christopher Preble

ASIA TIMES: AFGHAN TALKS

THE STATE OF PAKISTAN'S POLITICAL ECONOMY

China’s chump: Why America can’t trust Pakistan
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

Afghanistan peace talks: U.S. pushes toward “face-saving way out"
(Axios) The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and the Taliban are a “charade” designed simply to provide the U.S. a “face-saving way out of Afghanistan,” former CIA deputy director Michael Morell tells Axios.

Pakistan wants to create a self-reliant, self-sustained defense industry
(Defense News) The Pakistani government is promoting aims to increase public-private cooperation and develop a self-reliant, self-sustained defense industry. But the private sector is skeptical.

ASIA TIMES: PAKISTAN'S ECONOMY, THE TURNAROUND?

Afghanistan, Counterinsurgency, And The Indirect Approach
mentioning Thomas H. Henriksen via Readings
In exploring Counterinsurgency and the Indirect Approach, Dr. Thomas Henriksen assesses several cases where the United States has employed an Indirect Approach toward achieving strategic objectives, and he suggests where this concept has landed short of expectations.

Anthony H. Cordesman writes: Much of the analysis of these three options has focused on the possible terms of the peace, the immediate progress in the fighting, and/or the coming Afghan election and Afghanistan’s immediate political problems. These are all important issues, but they do not address the basic problems in Afghan security forces that will limit its military capabilities indefinitely into the future, or the scale of the civil problems in Afghanistan that have given it failed governance and made it the equivalent of a failed sate, and that will shape its future in actually implementing any peace or in attempting to continue the war. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Islamic State has been battered in Iraq and Syria and declared defeated by President Donald Trump. But the terrorist group and its predecessor, al-Qaeda, are finding ample room to rebuild in other places with weak central governments, officials and analysts warn. – Bloomberg

JAILED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BEGINS HUNGER STRIKE, TUNISIAN PRESIDENT DIES & ALGERIA REJECTS TALKS WITH PROTEST MOVEMENT

7/26/2019

Jailed Tunisian presidential candidate begins hunger strike
Nabil Karoui, who is seen as a top candidate in Tunisia’s presidential elections, has started a hunger strike in prison, his lawyer said on Thursday. Karoui, who owns Nessma TV channel, was detained on Aug. 23 on suspicion of tax evasion and money laundering. “Karoui started an open-ended hunger strike on Wednesday to demand his right to vote on Sunday,” lawyer Ridha Belhadj said.
Separately, ousted President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was hospitalized for a “health crisis,” his lawyer said. Ben Ali has been living in exile in Saudi Arabia since the 2011 popular uprising in Tunisia that began the Arab Spring. Read More 

Algeria army chief calls for elections by the end of the year
Algeria’s army chief, Gen. Ahmed Gaid Salah, on Monday called for presidential elections later this year as protests continue despite the resignation of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Saleh said the electoral commission will “issue a call on Sept. 15,” setting up elections for December. Bouteflika stepped down in April after weeks of protests against his bid for a fifth term. New elections had been scheduled for July, but were postponed in the absence of candidates. Read More

Tunisia: Court Upholds Presidential Candidate’s Imprisonment. An appeals court on Tuesday upheld the detention of media magnate Nabil Karoui, a candidate in this month’s presidential election, on suspicion of tax fraud and money laundering. Karoui has denied the allegations, while the electoral commission has kept him on the ballot ahead of the September 15 election. The president is responsible for foreign and defense policy, while most decisionmaking powers rest with a prime minister who is chosen by parliament. A parliamentary election will also take place on October 6. Middle East Eye Al Arabiya

Seven keys to understanding the Tunisian election
On September 15 Tunisia will hold a presidential election brought forward two months by the unexpected death of patriarchal President Beji Caid Essebsi. Here are seven keys to understanding the campaigns and what Tunisians are looking for in candidates.
Read article

Conflicts surface with Tunisia’s Ennahda
The last-minute decision of Ennahda leader Rachid Ghannouchi to run in this year’s legislative elections in Tunisia has ruffled feathers in the Islamist movement.

Tunisian president dies
Tunisia’s President Beji Caid Essebsi died on Wednesdays after he was hospitalized for the second time in less than a month. Essebsi has been a prominent figure in Tunisian politics since the 2011 overthrow of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The 92-year-old president had only appeared in public twice since his last hospitalization in June. Tunisia plans to hold presidential and parliamentary elections later this year. Read More 

Tunisian prime minister hosts Libyan counterpart in bid to temper violence
Tunisia’s Prime Minister Youssef Chahed hosted the head of Libya’s internationally recognized government, Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, in Tunis on Wednesday. Chahed stressed the need to reach a political solution to the violence between Sarraj’s government and Khalifa Hifter, a warlord backing Libya’s eastern government. Hifter has been leading an offensive against Sarraj’s government in Tripoli since April. Read More 

Algeria army chief rejects protesters' demands for talks
Algeria’s army chief, Gen. Ahmed Gaid Salah, on Tuesday rejected preconditions by protesters for talks to end the political crisis. “There is no more time to lose,” Salah said in a televised speech, stressing the need to hold a dialogue without any conditions. Protests in Algeria continue despite the resignation of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika as Algerians seek a transition to democracy and the trial of regime figures. They are also demanding the release of people arrested in connection with the demonstrations and an end to the censorship of their movement before holding any dialogue that would pave the way for presidential elections. Read More 

Algeria court orders arrest of opposition figure
An Algerian court on Thursday ordered the detention of a prominent opposition figure as part of an anti-graft investigation. Karim Tabou is accused of “contributing to weakening the army’s morale.” The order is the latest in a series of arrests against figures linked to the former regime of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and opposition leaders. Read More
reuters.com

INDIA'S VANISHING NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS & EXAMINING GOOD GOVERNANCE IN ISLAMIC SOCIETIES (TALIBAN)

7/24/2019

ASIA TIMES

THE AMERICAN PROXY FOR CHINA REMAINS INDIA

ISLAM & GOOD GOVERNANCE

ASIA TIMES: INDIA'S COMMUNIAL VIOLENCE

TUNISIA'S POLITICAL ECONOMY STILL HURTS AFTER THE ARAB SPRING & REIGNING IN IRANIAN MILITIAS IN IRAQ REMAINS DIFFICULT

7/24/2019

Tunisia clears 26 candidates for presidential election
Tunisia’s electoral commission on Wednesday approved 26 candidates for next month’s presidential election. The body rejected 71 other applicants. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed and former interim President Moncef Marzouki are in the running, as well as Defense Minister Abdelkarim Zbidi and Abdel Fattah Mourou, the vice president of moderate Islamist party Ennahda. The election was initially slated for November but was bumped up to Sept. 15 following President Beji Caid Essebsi’s death last month. Read More

ASIA TIMES

Tunisia Islamist party fields first presidential candidate
Tunisia’s moderate Islamist party on Tuesday nominated its vice president, Abdel Fattah Mourou, to run in the country’s upcoming presidential elections. This is the first time Ennahda, the country's largest political movement, has fielded a presidential nominee since the 2011 revolution. Elections were initially slated for November but were bumped up to September following President Beji Caid Essebsi’s death last week. Former interim President Moncef Marzouki also announced his intention to run on Tuesday. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed is also a candidate. Read More

Reining in Iraq’s militias will take more than an executive order
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

NETANYAHU'S CHALLENGERS FAIL: ISRAELI POLL FINDS ARMY TIMID & WHY THE SAUDI'S NEED A WAKE UP CALL

7/24/2019

Blue and White dumps ultra-Orthodox; tries to make up with secularists
Two weeks ahead of elections on Sept. 17, Blue and White has changed its strategy to regain and broaden support among secularists after realizing it has been 'hemorrhaging votes,' mainly to Avigdor Liberman.

Israel’s state watchdog stands guard for Netanyahu
Instead of objectively evaluating the policies and ethics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, new State Comptroller Matanyahu Engelman is protecting the premier’s interests.

Israel's Strategic Goal in Syria
By Yaakov Lappin, August 8, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel’s shadow war in Syria is based on the strategic objective of convincing the Islamic Republic that its investment in a war machine is going to waste. Iran has so far chosen to weather the strikes and shift tactics without abandoning its Syria project.
Continue to full article ->

Israel's electoral threshold: A matchmaker for marriages of convenience
The four-Knesset-seat threshold has forced several parties to form alliances despite starkly contrasting ideological differences between them.

To Win On Iran, Trump Should Take A Page From Reagan's Diplomatic Playbook
by Abbas Milani via The Hill
A perilous impasse exists between the Trump administration’s strident policy of “maximum pressure” and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s no less strident policy of “no negotiation” with the United States. One way out of this fraught situation is a policy that appears to be a lose-lose for both sides but, in reality, is a win-win for all sides.

Why Iran Will Never Give Up On Nuclear Weapons
by Josef Joffe via The American Interest
This week, Donald Trump repeated an American mantra: “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.” But in due time it will, because it can, and because it has long seen the Bomb to be in its national interest. But is there an upside?

What the Smuggled Archive Tells Us About Iran's Nuclear Weapons Project
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, July 22, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: As an apparent act of defiance against Western countries’ reluctance to support it against US sanctions, Iran has begun to enrich uranium beyond the level permitted by the nuclear deal. This fact, together with the information revealed by the smuggling out by the Israelis of Iran’s nuclear weapons program archive, belies Tehran’s oft-expressed claim that its nuclear program was always for peaceful use and shows the hollowness of the nuclear agreement.
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Poll: Israelis Find the Security Establishment "Too Timid" by Daniel Pipes
Jerusalem Post
July 23, 2019
http://www.danielpipes.org/18963/poll-israelis-find-the-security-establishment-too

US Saudi Arabia Policy Needs a Dose of Realpolitik by A.J. Caschetta
The Hill
July 20, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58996/us-saudi-arabia-policy-needs-a-dose-of-realpolitik

US troops return to Saudi Arabia after 16 years
US troops are returning to Saudi Arabia for the first time in 16 years as tensions with Iran rise and the kingdom finds itself increasingly isolated in Yemen.

KHAN SHOWS UP IN D.C., AL-QAEDA'S BIG PLANS FOR CENTRAL-SOUTH ASIA & PAKISTAN'S DEEP STATE PUPPETS MOVE ON

7/22/2019

THE POLITICAL REFORM OF PAKISTAN MOVES RIGHT

ASIA TIMES

KHAN'S ROLE IN MEDIATION FOR D.C. IN KABUL

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/07/al-qaeda-leader-threatens-india-criticizes-pakistan-in-message-on-kashmir.php

INDIA'S BUDGET ISN'T SERIOUS ABOUT ECONOMIC GROWTH

7/13/2019

ASIA TIMES

DID TRUMP CAVE ON PAKISTAN? A COMEDY OF ERRORS CALLED PAKISTANI PROXIES & RENAMING AFGHANISTAN AN EMIRATE

7/13/2019

ASIA TIMES ON PAKISTANI REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

Trump caves to Pakistan on Afghanistan
Trump's acquiescence to Pakistan, which has backed the Taliban's deadly insurgency in Afghanistan, occurs less than two years after he accused Pakistan of providing "safe haven to agents of chaos, violence, and terror". Trump also said Pakistan returned billions of dollars in US aid with “nothing but lies & deceit.”

Pakistan again arrests Lahkar-e-Taiba emir Hafiz Saeed
Pakistan is a state where those who push the bounds of what is acceptable to the military and Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, including jihadists, politicians, journalists, and activists, end up missing or are found murdered. Pakistan has weathered nearly two decades of international condemnation over Saeed and Lahkar-e-Taiba, yet he and his terrorist entities have not only survived, but thrived.

ASIA TIMES

Pakistan charges 13 Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders under Anti-Terrorism Act
If history is any guide, Laskahr-e-Taiba leader Hafiz Saeed and his cadre will dodge the charges and continue to provide support to a wide range of terrorist groups, including al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban.

Sending the right signals on the way to an Afghan peace deal
(Military.com) After four straight decades of war, the hope for a lasting peace is on the minds of Afghans across the Central Asian country from the Hindu Kush to the plains of Herat.

IRAQ CHARTS NATIONAL VISION FOR UNITY & WHY GETTING OUT OF SYRIA IS HARD

7/13/2019

Getting Iran Out of Syria Is No Easy Task by Jonathan Spyer
The Wall Street Journal
July 9, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58942/getting-iran-out-of-syria-is-no-easy-task

AL-MONITOR

Iraq's De-militiafication Is a Sham by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
July 4, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58882/iraq-de-militiafication-is-a-sham

GROUND HOG DAY FOR ISRAEL IN DISOWNING BEN GURION'S VISION OF ISRAEL

6/30/2019

Netanyahu, Barak locked in dirtiest fight yet
The upcoming Israeli elections are already reminiscent of 1999, when Ehud Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu first exchanged vitriolic rhetoric and outrageous accusations.

Netanyahu to pass Ben-Gurion in time served, but not in stature
Israel’s first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, and its incumbent prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who will soon break the record set by the former as the country's longest-serving premier, represent opposing worldviews and aspirations.

Disowning Ben-Gurion's Vision
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, July 11, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The rejection by Israeli intellectuals of Jewish spiritual and political activism, as exemplified in the preaching and actions of Rabbi Akiva, who was executed by the Romans for his support of the Bar-Kochba revolt (132-35 CE), runs counter to the thinking of David Ben-Gurion, who considered himself a disciple and successor of the eminent sage.
Continue to full article ->

Palestinians’ ‘opportunity of the century’
Why they — or at least those who lead them — are not interested.

WHAT A NEW IRAN DEAL WOULD LOOK LIKE & THE POSSIBILITIES OF REGIME CHANGE FOR IRAN

6/29/2019

REAL CLEAR POLITICS

A U.S.-Iran War Will Not Be Fought Only in Iran by Seth Frantzman
The National Interest
July 2, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58872/a-us-iran-war-will-not-be-fought-only-in-iran

AMIR TAHERI ON IRANIAN SANCTIONS

What’s Next on Tehran’s Nuclear File?

A New Strategy Toward Tehran: Exploit Iran's Fear
By Dmitri Shufutinsky, June 26, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Iranian regime’s worst fear is a foreign invasion. In order to bring the mullahs to the negotiating table, the US should eliminate the regime’s proxies in Iran’s Iraqi and Syrian “near-abroad” and bring that threat into full relief.
Continue to full article ->

Iran shifts to higher-risk strategy as Trump bears down on pressure campaign
After exercising "strategic patience" for a year, Iran has shifted its strategy to one of calibrated escalation on the nuclear, regional and diplomatic fronts to try to secure economic relief, deter US adventurism and better position itself for possible future talks.

What “Yes” With Iran Looks Like
Mark Dubowitz, Reuel Marc Gerecht and Behnam Ben Taleblu — FDD Research Memo
Even amidst a flurry of press reporting about U.S. military deployments to the Persian Gulf, President Donald Trump appears to remain committed to negotiations for a new deal with Iran. But what should the contours of such an agreement be, and how should the U.S. conduct diplomacy with the Islamic Republic? This memorandum aims to provide a crash course in such diplomacy, focusing on how to address Iranian intentions, strategies, and.... Read More

Reconfiguring Geopolitics In The Era Of The Surveillance State: The Uyghurs, The Chinese Party-State, And The Reshaping Of Middle East Politics
by Kelly A. Hammond via The Caravan
We are living in the era of the surveillance state. People are starting to understand the political implications that the connections between technology and state power may have on individual privacy and civil rights. As Artificial Intelligence (AI) and facial recognition technology become available to states around the world, they are faced with making a choice whether to use them to monitor their own populations. While San Francisco just became the first city in the United States to ban the use of AI for policing, authoritarian states, like the United Arab Emirates, regularly consult and buy software from Chinese tech firms to control and monitor their own populations.

FDD Report Details How Trump Administration Can Create a New Iran Deal
Extensive period of intense sanctions critical ahead of agreement on nuclear, non-nuclear issues.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/06/for-regime-change-in-iran/

THE CARAVAN & STRATEGIKA FROM HOOVER, NEW ISSUE

6/29/2019

'Strategika'

The Caravan: Competition For Influence In The Middle East
via The Caravan
Issue 1922 of The Caravan is now available online. The journal is a periodic symposium on the contemporary dilemmas of the Greater Middle East.

Foreign Influence & The Middle East
by Hafed Al-Ghwell via The Caravan
Today, America finds itself in roughly the same waters that drowned British ambitions in the Middle East between 1946–1969. In less than two decades, Washington has vacillated from direct intervention to calls to “share the region,” which have now been supplanted by the “America First” diplomacy of bold declarations that favor smaller, “face-saving” compromises.

Foreign Interference Everywhere
by Reuel Marc Gerecht via The Caravan
“Foreign interference” is a phrase often heard in the Middle East. In the pre-modern era, Muslim dynasties continuously challenged each other. The idea of “foreign” intrusion was, however, religiously defined: there were Greek and Latin Christians in the west, Mongol Shamanists and Hindus to the east. The recurring and intense wars between the Ottomans and the Safavids, where sultans and shahs attempted in their diplomatic correspondence to strip each other of legitimacy, were an intramural match, despite the Sunni–Shiite clash, where victory on the battlefield determined who owned what.

AN ARAB SPRING FOR EVERYBODY & TUNISIA ROCKED BY SUICIDE BOMBERS

6/27/2019

Russia Joins Gulf States in Coaching Sudan's Military
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, July 9, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Russia has emerged as Saudi Arabia’s and the UAE’s silent partner in assisting the Sudanese military’s efforts to weaken, if not defeat, a months-long popular revolt that has already toppled president Omar Bashir.
Continue to full article ->

Algeria’s Hirak presses on with unparalleled achievements
Algeria’s popular protests, or Hirak, entered their 20th week on July 5, with thousands of demonstrators flooding city streets.

Algerian parliament elects Islamist opposition figure as new speaker
Algeria’s parliament elected Islamist leader Slimane Chenine as its new speaker on Wednesday. Chenine, a member of the opposition National Construction Movement, replaces Moad Bouchareb, who resigned last week following months of protests against the country's ruling elite.
Separately, Algeria’s Supreme Court ordered the detention of former Industry minister Youcef Yousfi on Wednesday on charges of “dissipation of public funds” as part of an anti-graft investigation. Protests continue despite the resignation of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika as Algerians demand a transition to democracy and the trial of figures linked to the former regime.
Read More 

Arab, Russian, and Pakistani Protesters Learn the Lessons of 2011
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, June 27, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Demonstrators in Sudan, Algeria, and nations beyond the Middle East such as Pakistan and Russia are applying lessons learned from the 2011 popular Arab revolts as the Sudanese military uses an apparent Saudi-United Arab Emirates template to crack down.
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Twin attacks rock Tunisian capital
The Islamic State claimed responsibility for two suicide bombings that rocked the Tunisian capital on Thursday at the peak of tourism season and months ahead of a general election. The Interior Ministry said the first blast targeted a security patrol in central Tunis, killing one officer and wounding another along with three civilians. Ten minutes later, a second suicide bomber blew himself up at the back door of a police building in a complex housing the headquarters of an antiterrorism brigade in the city. The ministry said four security officers were wounded.
Shortly after the two attacks, President Beji Caid Essebsi, 92, was “taken seriously ill and transferred to the military hospital in Tunis,’’ the Tunisian presidency said in a post on Facebook. Some media reports claimed the president had died, but they were denied by the presidency.
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Algeria's Hirak marches on in the face of official warnings
Algeria’s predominantly young protesters have proven resistant to any attempt to hijack their cause and bend it to any end but their own.

Can Sudan’s Military Be Convinced to Support Democracy? by Nathaniel Allen and Sharan Grewal

LESSONS FROM IRAQ & IS US OUT OF OPTIONS WITH IRAN; AL-MONITOR EXAMINES DEMOCRATIC PARTIES POLICY ON MIDDLE EAST

6/21/2019

Al-Monitor covers US Democratic candidates' Middle East record
Wonder how the 20 presidential candidates who made the cut for next week's Democratic primary debates stack up on Middle East policy? Al-Monitor's new 2020 tracker delves deep into their voting records and public statements to bring you the most comprehensive overview anywhere of the front-runners' stances on issues such as Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
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Lessons from the Iraq War
Hal Brands and Peter D. Feaver | NationalReview.com

CENTCOM TALKS-UP ABOUT OMAN, MIDDLE EAST ORDER AND MEETING COUNTER-TERROR OBJECTIVES IN AFGHANISTAN

6/15/2019

Opinion: America’s three big mistakes in Afghanistan
(Military Times) Indeed, the entire war is a story of one mistake after another, putting success or “victory” as we typically define it further out of reach.

Congress and the Iran and Saudi Arabia problem
Danielle Pletka | AEIdeas
Donald Trump is far from an ideal champion of American interests in the world, but he is not confused about the need to range allies on our side in the Middle East against Iran. It is hard to say the same about congressional Democrats and their fellow travelers.

U.S., MIDDLE EAST:
CENTCOM: ‘No Interest’ in New Conflict in Middle East
From Reuters: “The United States has no interest in engaging in a new conflict in the Middle East but will defend American interests including freedom of navigation, the U.S. military said on Thursday as it directed a destroyer to the scene of an attack in the Gulf of Oman."

Meeting U.S. Counterterrorism Objectives in Afghanistan
By Francis X. Tailor, RealClearDefense: "As anybody who has been monitoring America’s 18-year military involvement in Afghanistan will tell you, ending a war that has persisted for a generation is border-line “mission impossible.”"

Hanin Ghaddar writes: After seven years of international efforts to resolve their maritime border dispute, Lebanon and Israel seem close to agreeing on a framework to negotiate the issue in order to accelerate offshore oil and gas exploration. […]At the same time, there may be opportunities to at least discuss important matters beyond the technical details of border demarcation. […]Yet negotiators could still use them as a lever to kick off a national defense dialogue—which could in turn bring more domestic pressure to bear on Hezbollah’s efforts to expand its arsenal of missiles and other advanced weapons. – Washington Institute

The Afghanistan Conundrum
By Amin Saikal, The Strategist (ASPI): "Afghanistan’s problem is not primarily a military one. Despite the ANA’s heavy losses (more than 45,000 personnel since mid-2014) and increased insecurity in the country, the army has managed to prevent the Taliban from taking over any major city on a lasting basis."

INDIA GETS A NEW DEFENSE MINISTER, HERE'S WHY

6/9/2019

ASIA TIMES: WHY INDIA & US HAVE COMPETING INTERESTS

India gets a new defense minister
(Defense News) A senior politician of the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party has been appointed the new defense minister of India.

The New India Versus the Nuclear Revolution: The Future of Crises Among Nuclear Powers
by T. Negeen Pegahi

LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE LONG WAR & AEI'S ROAD TO THE CALIPHATE

6/8/2019

Katherine Zimmerman’s latest publication, Road to the Caliphate, which analyzes the Salafi-jihadi movement’s center of gravity, source of strength, and critical vulnerabilities.
Zimmerman’s report advises the United States to adapt its counterterrorism strategy to focus on the Salafi-jihadi movement’s key strength – its link to vulnerable Sunni communities – in order to achieve real progress in the fight against terrorist groups. The current approach, an unwinnable game of terrorist whack-a-mole, does not apply pressure to the movement globally and has not had lasting effects.

Michael Rubin writes: There any many flaws in Khalilzad’s plan: It revives the pre-9/11 formula of legitimizing Taliban rule in exchange for a Taliban pledge to close terror camps; it undercuts the legitimacy of the elected Afghan government; and it discounts the Taliban’s long history of insincere diplomacy and fleeting commitments. The biggest problem with Khalilzad’s approach, however, is it ignores a simple fact: There can be no peace in Afghanistan so long as Pakistan chooses to undercut Afghan stability and support extremism. The missing piece to the Khalilzad strategy, therefore, is how to bring Pakistan to heel. – The National Interest

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/06/caliphate-interrupted.php

Taliban leader claims US-led war effort ‘condemned to defeat’
Thomas Joscelyn – FDD’s Long War Journal

NETANYAHU HIT FROM THE RIGHT; DECIPHERING TRUMP'S APPROACH TO THE MIDDLE EAST

6/8/2019

YAAKOV KATZ: The Yisrael Beytenu head sits down with ‘The Post’ for an exclusive interview to talk about what happened in the coalition talks with Likud, and his plans for September 17.
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Trump’s New Approach to the Middle East
By Will Ruger, RealClearDefense: “ . . . continued “maximum pressure” could ultimately lead the United States into the very type of endless war in the Middle East that the president has rightly criticized in the past."

A SECOND ARAB SPRING? ALGERIA CANCELS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS & SUDAN GETS A CRACKDOWN

6/8/2019

Alberto M. Fernandez writes: While a four-sided struggle for power – SAF, NISS, RSF, and everybody else – rages in Khartoum, another struggle is being waged on a pan-Arab and international level to define a narrative for what is happening inside Sudan. In an incredibly cynical media ploy, Qatar, through its media proxies in Arabic and English, is pushing propaganda placing the blame for events in Sudan at the feet of its bitter enemies in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. – Middle East Media Research Institute

The financial fallout from Libya’s war is another blow for Tunisia. The North African country helped inspire the broader Arab Spring uprisings with its overthrow of autocrat Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. But while Tunisians now have democracy, financially they are struggling. – Reuters

Algeria orders arrest of a second ex-prime minister in graft case
Algeria’s Supreme Court on Thursday ordered the detention of former Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal as part of an anti-graft investigation. The move comes one day after another former premier, Ahmed Ouyahia, was ordered detained. Sellal, a close associate of former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, is being tried on charges of “dissipation of public funds.” Authorities have also arrested several of the country’s wealthiest businessmen. Protests in Algeria continue despite Bouteflika's resignation as Algerians demand a transition to democracy and the trial of figures linked to the former regime. Read More

Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir brutally crushed dissent during the three decades he ruled the North African nation. But his overthrow in April hasn’t ushered in peace. Instead, the military council that replaced him is accused of some of the worst-ever violence in the capital, Khartoum. – Bloomberg

Egypt's hand appears in play behind scenes in Sudan
The head of the Sudanese Transitional Military Council has visited Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, raising questions about Cairo’s role in Sudanese affairs.

Central Bank: 2019 will be difficult for Tunisian banks
Tunisia's financial and political quarters worry about an imminent liquidity crisis threatening the banking sector.

Algeria cancels presidential election
Algeria’s Constitutional Council on Sunday canceled the presidential election set for next month after rejecting the only two candidates who came forward. The interim presidency had designated July 4 for polling to replace Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who resigned in April after weeks of protests against his two-decade rule. The announcement extends the rule of interim President Abdelkader Bensalah until a new election is scheduled. Meanwhile, many Algerians continue to demonstrate in the street for a complete political overhaul. Read More 

Read why Salafi-jihadi groups stand to gain from Libya's renewed civil war.
Algerian protesters successfully pressured the government to delay presidential elections.
Our take on what follows Bouteflika.

Arab Spring: The Second Coming?by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
May 1, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58659/arab-spring-the-second-coming

ARAB REGIMES FOMENT CHAOS IN SUDAN

Algeria braces for protests on first Friday since election canceled
Protesters in Algeria are expected to take to the streets today to demand the resignation of interim President Abdelkader Bensalah and a complete political overhaul. Algeria’s Constitutional Council on Sunday canceled the presidential election set for July 4 to replace Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who resigned in April after weeks of protests against his two-decade rule. The announcement extends the rule of Bensalah until a new election is scheduled. Bensalah on Thursday called on the political class and civil society to hold an “inclusive dialogue” to prepare for a new election “as soon as possible.” Read More 

SUDAN'S ARMY GOES ARRESTS OPPOSITION

Bloomberg’s Eli Lake: Don’t let the Saudis ruin Sudan’s democratic moment

Tunisian prime minister elected to head new party after break with president
Tunisia’s Prime Minister Youssef Chahed on Sunday was elected president of a new secular party after clashing with the ruling party's leaders. Chahed broke from Nidaa Tounes in January and formed Tahya Tounes (Long Live Tunisia) after months of feuding with Nidaa Tounes leader Hafedh Caid Essebsi, the son of President Beji Caid Essebsi. The announcement comes as Tunisia gears up for parliamentary and presidential elections this fall. Read More 

Will Tunisian prime minister resign or run for president?
Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed has been elected head of Tahya Tounes, which has sparked fears among political circles that he might use his post to serve party interests.

CALIPHATE HAS GONE UNDERGROUND TO GROW RAPIDLY

6/8/2019

Road to the Caliphate: The Salafi-jihadi movement’s strengths

Katherine Zimmerman | June 2019

Successes on the battlefields against al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and other like-minded groups have not led to their defeat or permanently reduced their threat to the United States.

The deterioration of conditions in the Muslim world has made communities vulnerable to and created opportunities for the Salafi-jihadi vanguard to develop local ties.
The reliance of the Salafi-jihadi movement on its relationship with Sunni communities to strengthen and expand beyond ideological supporters is a key vulnerability.
The US should reorient its efforts to focus not only on disrupting and preventing active terror plots as a national security priority but also on severing the relationships the Salafi-jihadi movement has formed with Sunni communities.

AEI ARTICLE HERE

The Salafi-jihadist movement is winning
Katherine Zimmerman | RealClearWorld | February 12, 2019

Terrorism, Tactics, and Transformation: The West vs the Salafi-Jihadi Movement, Critical Threats Project
Katherine Zimmerman | American Enterprise Institute | November 15, 2018

America’s real enemy: The Salafi-jihadi movement
Katherine Zimmerman | American Enterprise Institute | July 18, 2017

LIBYA HANDS OVER TOP TERRORIST TO EGYPT

6/8/2019

Libya extradites top terrorist to Egypt
The Libyan National Army has handed convicted terrorist Hisham Ashmawi over to Egypt in what security officials call a major blow to terrorism in the region.

AFRICA'S POST COLONIAL ERA ENDING
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DEFEATING SECTARIANISM IN MIDDLE EAST

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SECULARISM, NATIONALISM, ISLAMISM: MAKING MODERN MIDDLE EAST
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CHANGING DYNAMICS OF SALAFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS

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BIN SALMAN & THE REFORM OF SAUDI ARABIA
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