Tunisia’s political crisis forewarns economic collapse
 Economists are sounding the alarm about a possible economic collapse in Tunisia, urging for reforms to revive the economy that had been suffering since 2011 amid political instability.

Munqith Dagher writes: However, the Iraqi state’s current military capabilities are supported by the Atabat and the Sadrist militias, and these combined forces may be enough to prevent the losing factions from aggravating tensions. Even with what seems to be a reduced willingness of Iran to support its followers in Iraq and escalate the security threats there, the government and international community alike should remain vigilant to these possibilities to prevent the alternative of being caught off-guard. – Washington Institute ​

Drone sale to Ethiopia could jeopardize Turkey-Egypt dialogue
Turkey risks derailing normalization talks with Egypt by selling armed drones to Ethiopia, in addition to coming under international fire should Ethiopia use the drones in the conflict in Tigray.
Read More  ​

The Evolving Geography of the U.S. Defense Industrial Base by Doug Berenson

The Taliban call the shots

War on the Rocks: Terrorism in SW Asia after Afghanistan

"Back to Pre-9/11. But It's Worse"

The French Double Standard on Fighting Terrorism

The Road to Smart Power in the Middle East
Featuring Russell Berman via PolicyEd

 In The Atlantic, Sally Satel analyzes a new study that challenges this belief. Without dismissing the seriousness of right-wing authoritarianism, Satel argues that few studies engage with left-wing authoritarianism because of a monolithic academic culture. "This political imbalance makes truth-seeking harder," she concludes, which is bad for both science and American politics.

AEI scholars also question the reigning conventional wisdom in foreign policy. Hal Brands and Michael Beckley challenge the notion that the primary source of friction between China and the United States is "the replacement of one hegemon by another" — that is, China's rise and America's decline. They attribute the tense relations between the two countries instead to a "peaking power trap" and point to historical examples to suggest that China's decline is actually what could cause the trap to spring shut.

Nuclear Armed Iran More Dangerous Than North Korea 

https://www.meforum.org/62692/ali-alfoneh-on-strategic-lessons-guiding-iran-behavior
Ali Alfoneh on the "Strategic Lessons" Guiding Iran's Behavior

Analysis: The Islamic State’s expansion into Congo’s Ituri Province
​U.S. Treasury sanctions al Qaeda facilitators in Turkey

Turkey's political realities clash with Erdogan’s 2023 dreams
To win the next election, Erdogan must change the election laws but also find more popular political allies. His AKP party's current coalition with the ultra-nationalists is becoming a liability for his goal of re-election in 2023.
Read More  

For Peace, Abbas's Long-standing Rejectionism Has to Be Defeated  by Gregg Roman
The Jerusalem Post
October 3, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/62696/for-peace-abbass-rejectionism-must-be-defeated

AfPak Takes On New Meaning with the Rise of the Taliban

 Tunisians rally in support of president  
Thousands of Tunisians took to the streets on Sunday in support of President Kais Saied, whose critics accuse him of staging a coup. Around 8,000 people gathered in the capital, while others rallied in the cities of Sfax, Sidi Bouzid, Gafsa and Monastir. The crowds appeared to have outnumbered those who gathered last week to protest against Saied, who announced in September that he will rule by decree for two months. Saied suspended parliament in July and dismissed the prime minister and a number of Cabinet officials in response to sweeping protests against the government’s failure to address the coronavirus pandemic and mounting debt. On Sunday, a Tunisian member of parliament and television presenter were arrested after criticizing Saied and calling him a traitor.  
Read More  ​

Who Is Directing American Policy?  by Lawrence Kadish

Iran Mullahs Closer Than Ever to Obtaining Nuclear Weapons  by Majid Rafizadeh  

Israel’s Bennett striving for new center-right electorate
 As new prime minister in a government composed of the right, center and left, Naftali Bennett strives to create for himself a new political base.

Enabling the Fifth Column and the Relevancy of Unconventional Warfare
By Mark Grdovic, Small Wars Journal: “Although the concept of enabling resistance movements as a supporting effort to a broader military campaign is centuries old, the concept did not formally appear in U.S. military doctrine as Unconventional Warfare until 1955.” ​

Turkey and the West: Drifting Further Apartby Burak Bekdil 

What Went Wrong in Afghanistan?
By Danielle Pletka, Stephen Walt, Eliot A. Cohen, Husain Haqqani, Richard Haass, Rina Amiri, Elliot Ackerman, Rory Stewart & Carter Malkasian, The Wall Street Journal: “As America’s longest war draws to an end, sharp disagreements remain about its aims, direction and success.” ​

Pakistan’s Pyrrhic Victory in Afghanistan
By Husain Haqqani, Foreign Affairs: “Islamabad will come to regret aiding the taliban’s resurgence.” 

Does the Belt and Road Have a Future in Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan?
By Sebastien Goulard, The Diplomat: “The Taliban will welcome the hard infrastructure elements of the BRI. The “soft” components are a different story."

A Strategy for Avoiding Two-Front War
By A. Wess Mitchell, The National Interest: “The greatest risk facing the twenty-first-century United States, short of an outright nuclear attack, is a two-front war involving its strongest military rivals, China and Russia. Such a conflict would entail a scale of national effort and risk unseen in generations, effectively pitting America against the resources of nearly half of the Eurasian landmass.” ​

Egypt pledges support to Somalia, eyeing Horn of Africa influence
 Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Roble held talks in Cairo with senior Egyptian officials at a time when Egypt is attempting to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa.

Tunisians decry coup, while president's supporters claim 'second revolution'
 On the streets of Tunis, rumors and anticipation of July 25 demonstrations have been circulating for weeks.

​While Biden Aims For A New Nuclear Deal, Israel Must Stay Tough on Iran

The Pentagon Needs More Than Ships and Planes to Deter China
By Editorial Board, Bloomberg: "U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific region need to be more resilient, flexible and effective."

A U.S. Defense Budget That Makes China Smile
By Mackenzie Eaglen, 1945: ““More tooth, less tail” is a common refrain from defense leaders in search of more combat power as budgets have flatlined. No matter the topline, it seems defense continues to get less for more. Except when it comes to civilians.” 

Military Agility
By Jonathan Beall, Strategy Bridge: “. . . the key to understanding the move from peace to war must include an army’s “cognitive and mental flexibility” in that transition, which means this process is not simply a matter of material readiness, although it is not neglected.” ​

 Mapping the Taliban’s Offensive

Afghanistan at risk of collapse as Taliban storms the north

China’s military budget much bigger than what it reveals’
Cleo Paskal – The Sunday Guardia

The Middle East should be afraid of Iran’s Ebrahim Raisi
Alireza Nader and Saeed Ghasseminejad — Al Arabiya
Iran’s newly elected president, Ebrahim Raisi, is known for his brutal and fanatical devotion to the Islamic Republic, a history that it would serve Middle Eastern nations well to remember in future foreign policy dealings with the country. Raisi’s selection by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei as president is meant to facilitate a smooth succession and instill fear in Iranians yearning to break free from the theocracy. Read more

The Coming Sanctions Battle Over Iran’s New President
Behnam Ben Taleblu — The National Interest
Men of the cloth are no strangers to the levers of power in Iran, especially the office of the presidency. Ebrahim Raisi, the sixty-year-old mid-ranking cleric who is now president-elect, or better put, president-select, will be the first in the history of the Islamic Republic to make the lateral move from the judiciary, which he led since 2019, to the presidency. He will also be the first Iranian president under U.S. sanctions. Read more

 Middle East Diplomacy with Elliott Abrams
Tikvah's incoming chairman, Elliott Abrams, joined JNS's Jonathan Tobin to discuss the past failed efforts at a two-state solution as well as diplomacy, democracy, and the future of American Jewry. Listen Here (48 min.).

3) Rabbi Yehoshua Pfeffer on the Ultra-Orthodox and the IDF
Almost every Jewish community in Israel serves in the IDF, except one: the haredim. On this week's podcast, Tikvah's Rabbi Yehoshua Pfeffer explores the background behind his community's reluctance to serve in the Israeli army and brings us inside the debate currently unfolding within Israel's Orthodox communities about the fulfillment of civic obligation and moral duty. Listen Here (39 min.).

The War at Home: The Need for Internal Security Sector Reform in Iraqi Kurdistan
The forces and agencies of Kurdistan’s Ministry of Interior and the Kurdistan Region Security Council, collectively referred to the Kurdistan Region Interior Forces, are now the region’s main security actors, but their role as instruments of partisan rivalry and enforcers of public loyalty to the political bureaus threatens the Kurdistan Region’s stability. This report makes the case that coalition security sector reform efforts should be refocused on them. Although Peshmerga reform is necessary to improve the Kurdistan Region’s ability to combat external threats, it is equally, if not more important to start the same reform within these internal forces and agencies to achieve durable stability.
Read article

The Pakistan Factor in China’s Afghanistan Policy: Emerging Regional Faultlines amid US Withdrawal

To date, China has largely relied on Pakistan to conduct its Afghan policy. Not much bothered about the future political role of the Taliban, China fears the prospect of instability in Afghanistan after the U.S. exit. Beijing’s primary concern in a post-U.S. Afghanistan, which is likely to be run by a regime dominated by the Taliban, is that Uyghur separatists and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement might find a safe haven in the country. Although all regional countries support the idea of an inclusive political resolution to the Afghan conflict, neither China nor any other country has any appetite to lead a regional intervention to stabilize it. China has therefore responded to the announcement of the American exit from Afghanistan with a sense of disquiet. 
Read article

Spring 2021 Issue

MODERNIZING RUSSIAN NUKES

On Wars and Changing Threats
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, July 9, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israeli society must recognize the intensity of the new threats that surround it and critically assess the conventional wisdom that the era of big threats has passed and Israel need no longer be a "mobilized nation."
Continue to full article ->

Biden's Afghanistan: The Fog of Retreat
​Editorial of The New York Sun | July 9, 2021
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/bidens-afghanistan-the-fog-of-retreat/91568/

Egypt's Reckoning
by Samuel Tadros via The Caravan
As a young man, Egypt’s legendary playwright, Tawfiq Al Hakim had worked as an assistant to the Attorney General in the Egyptian countryside. There he would witness firsthand the dismal state of the country’s fellahin and the grave injustices Egypt’s rural population lived under. The experience would leave a profound impact on the young author and would shape his views of Egypt’s ills and the necessity for social change that became evident in his literary works. 
 
Saudi Human Rights
by Karen Elliott House via The Caravan
If the Biden Administration lives up to its campaign promises and early governing pronouncements, human rights will play a larger role in its foreign policy than in that of the Trump Administration.  This isn’t necessarily good news.

Iranian Regime, Houthis Celebrate Biden Administration's Policy
by Majid Rafizadeh 

MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE JOURNAL  Winter 2020/2021 Issue

Top Biden Economic Policy Adviser Linked to Kashmiri Extremists by J.M. Phelps
American Spectator
March 5, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/62087/top-biden-economic-policy-adviser-linked-to

Sounds Strategic: The IISS Podcast
To mark the publication of The Military Balance 2021, Meia Nouwens is joined by Fenella McGerty, Senior Fellow for Defence Economics, and Henry Boyd, Research Fellow for Defence and Military Analysis, to discuss recent developments in defence policy, military capability and defence economics.

Reposturing US defence to the Indo-Pacific

Armenia’s nuclear power plant is dangerous. Time to close it.

Rafael Bardaji on Why Europe "Will Remain Hostile to Israel" by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
March 14, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/62111/bardaji-on-why-europe-will-remain-hostile-to-israel

Negotiating with the Taliban is not the path to peace or securing American national security interests, writes Frederick Kagan.  READ MORE

Israel, US reveal cooperation on Arrow 4 ballistic missile interceptor

Netanyahu mourns Limbaugh, pushes for confrontational path over US-Iran talks

Does ‘Syrian trio’ of Russia, Iran and Turkey have a future?

Algeria: Running on fumes
Unless oil prices go way up, Algeria is in a world of hurt.

Algeria’s president dissolves parliament, pardons 60 protest figures 
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced on Thursday the dissolution of the lower house of parliament and called for early legislative elections. In an address to the nation, Tebboune also said he would carry out a government reshuffle in the coming days. The move coincides with renewed protests in Algeria to mark the second anniversary of the popular protest movement that forced longtime President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to resign. Despite his toppling, the demonstrations continued as Algerians demanded a transition to democracy and the trial of figures linked to the former regime. Authorities have since arrested and sentenced dozens connected with the protests, but in his Thursday address, Tebboune announced the pardoning of 60 people.   Read More  
reuters.com

Signs that Iran Might Be Continuing Its Nuclear Weapons Program
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, February 19, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Samples recently collected by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors at two Iranian sites showed traces of radioactivity. Tehran had not reported any nuclear activity at these sites and denied IAEA inspectors access to them until just a few months ago. The findings suggest that Iran, in violation of the JCPOA nuclear agreement it signed in July 2015, has continued to conduct activities related to nuclear military development.
Continue to full article ->

The Iran Mediation Bazaar

Turkey Ravages Cyprus

Israel Policy in the Biden Administratio

How Biden Can Build on the Abraham Accords
By Peter Berkowitz via RealClearPoliticsPeter Berkowitz writes that the Abraham Accords were forged between Israel and two Arab Gulf states, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, because all parties viewed that it was in their shared interest to counter the Islamic Republic of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Furthermore, these countries recognized extraordinary opportunities to develop commercial ties and launch educational and cultural exchanges. Berkowitz maintains that the Biden administration should expand upon its predecessor’s achievements by capitalizing on the shifting dynamics of the region and building on this diplomatic momentum in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking.

The Caspian Sea as Battleground
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, February 28, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Back in 1991, in the immediate wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Israel desk of Armenia’s foreign ministry—populated at the time by fluent Hebrew speakers—waited for a phone call that never came. The ministry was convinced that Israel, with whom Armenia shared an experience of genocide, was a natural ally. But Israel never made the call. Their shared experience could not compete with Armenia’s Turkic nemesis, Azerbaijan, with which Armenia was at war over Nagorno-Karabakh—a majority ethnic Armenian enclave on Azerbaijani territory.
“The calculation was simple,” an Israeli official said at the time. “Azerbaijan has three strategic assets that Israel is interested in: Muslims, oil, and several thousand Jews. All Armenia has to offer is at best several hundred Jews.”
Continue to full article ->

Tocqueville and Totalitarian Democracy in America

US officials would surely like Germany and Europe to rally quickly to America’s side. Hal Brands explains that, in reality, uniting the free world against a new authoritarian rival will itself be a long, hard campaign.  READ MORE

The Danger of Appeasing the Mullahs  by Majid Rafizadeh

The Battle for the Soul of Islam
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, January 17, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The battle for the soul of Islam pits rival Middle Eastern and Asian powers against one another: Turkey, seat of the Islamic world’s last true caliphate; Saudi Arabia, home to the faith’s holy cities; the United Arab Emirates (UAE), propagator of a militantly statist interpretation of Islam; Qatar, with its less strict version of Wahhabism and penchant for political Islam; Indonesia, promoting a humanitarian, pluralistic notion of Islam that reaches out to other faiths as well as non-Muslim center-right forces across the globe; Morocco, which uses religion as a way to position itself as the face of moderate Islam; and Shiite Iran, with its derailed revolution.
Continue to full article ->

"IDF chief of staff warns of return to Iran nuclear deal, details response to proxies," 
Joe Truzman, FDD's Long War Journal

• JPost’s Seth J. Frantzman: Iranians tire of government waste, failed foreign policies
  
• WINEP’s Michael Knights: Drones over Riyadh: Unpacking the Iran threat network’s tactics
  

In a January 27, 2021 article titled “Iran Continues to Test Biden’s Limits,” senior Saudi journalist ‘Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rahsed notes that Iran welcomed the Biden administration with a series of provocations – namely the December 20, 2020 rocket attack on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and with the January 23, 2021 Houthi attack on Riyadh – so as to test the patience of the U.S. and its allies and their willingness to retaliate. – Middle East Media Research Institute 
​
Victoria Coates and Len Khodorkovsky write: Driven by a revolutionary theology, the Islamic Republic’s regime has been metastasizing across the region since its founding in 1979. From funding and arming anti-Israel terrorists, to blowing up Saudi oil facilities, to pirating commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, Iran is the Middle East’s preeminent menace. Not only is it out of step with the Abraham Accords, Iran is the neighborhood’s chief purveyor of discord. – Jerusalem Post

Michael Knights writes: U.S. officials are right not to overreact to what may have been a probe of Riyadh’s airspace, and the Saudis may have their own reasons to save face and downplay the penetrations. If left unchecked, however, such probes may become bolder, especially if Tehran’s motive is to splinter the U.S.-Saudi and U.S.-Emirati relationships and coerce Washington into providing sanctions relief more quickly. The Biden administration should therefore take appropriate and measured steps in response: – Washington Institute

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran under sanctions has not been able to modernize many parts of its regular army and navy. That means relying on ships and planes that are many decades old. Sometimes Iran even uses old US Boeings, C-130s and other planes from the era of the shah. Sutton points out that Iran still has several smaller 600-ton Fateh-class submarines, but these also don’t seem to be active. Iran’s submarines are not ancient: They were built in the 1990s. However it is unclear what is wrong also with them – and how this setback may harm Iran’s capabilities. – Jerusalem Post

Isabel Ivanescu writes: Fighting between pro-Assad regime forces and local opposition elements in Dera’a Province is at its most intense since Russia brokered reconciliation agreements between the two factions in 2018. […]There has been an inflection in Russian behavior, however; Russia did not intervene to stop the first assault on the town by Iranian-backed forces and threatened to itself carry out airstrikes in the vicinity if locals refused to turn over individuals wanted by the regime. This may represent a Russian belief that Tafas, a hub of anti-Assad activity, will be less likely to capitulate than other towns in which similar events have previously transpired. – Institute for the Study of War

Mason Clark writes: The United States and its allies must prepare to confront an increasingly effective Russian military that is intent on further developing expeditionary capabilities and using them in coalition environments. Russia is still involved in and still learning from the conflict in Syria. […]The Russian military’s learning from Syria is driving Russian modernization efforts; the United States must understand this learning and adaptation to confront the Kremlin effectively. – Institute for the Study of War

Katherine Lawlor and Nicholas Carl write: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias likely conducted a kamikaze drone attack into Saudi Arabia on January 23, 2021, for the second time in recent years. This attack could indicate a significant change in how the Iranian regime imposes pressure on its adversaries around the Persian Gulf. The potential expansion of Iraqi proxies’ ability and willingness to target foreign states in ostensibly deniable ways and in coordination with other components of the Axis of Resistance would pose a growing security challenge to the US and its regional partners. – Institute for the Study of War

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Saudi Arabia has become a testing ground for how a country can create multi-layered and integrated air defense to stop the drones. […]Riyadh, a key ally of the US, may get advice on how best to continue to confront the threats. Evidence shows that it has done a good job downing drones and missiles in recent years. The question is whether the threats will grow as Tehran seeks to target US allies to put pressure on them and Washington, and to test new weapons. – Jerusalem Post

Arif Rafiq writes: In recent years, cooperation between Pakistan and Turkey has strengthened not just in the defense, diplomatic, and economic realms, but also in the cultural space, causing geopolitical ripple effects in the Himalayas, the Arabian Peninsula, and the South Caucasus. The emerging Pakistan-Turkey entente now has the buy-in of Pakistan’s leading political parties and three military services, as well as the Turkish leadership. – Middle East Institute

Rostec announced this week it has begun developing the MiG-41, a fifth-generation fighter jet set to replace Russia’s MiG-31 jets currently in service. However, amid a number of other ongoing military aerospace projects, experts are questioning whether industry has the resources to produce the aircraft by its deadline of 2030. – Defense News
​
Pro-regime spokespersons and surrogates attempted to denigrate Navalny and dismiss the demonstrations as miniscule and over-reliant upon impressionable minors, who additionally served as human shields to deter an effective police response to the demonstrators. […]Below is MEMRI’s review of the events surrounding Navalny’s arrest. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Steve Cohen writes: The problem is not just China’s emergence as a maritime power; it is our own seemingly apathetic willingness to cede dominance at sea. Although the past two administrations have agreed that the Navy needs a minimum number of 355 ships to meet its assigned roles, we have taken too few steps to appropriate the necessary funds to expand the fleet or identify what its composition ought to be. The current plan is too small, too slow, too fearful of making more mistakes in the acquisition process. – The Hill

Mark F. Cancian writes: Great power competition has returned after a generation of absence, and the U.S. military edge over prospective opponents is eroding. Whereas the United States previously could overwhelm adversaries with sheer force, if necessary, it now needs every advantage it can get. This study analyzes how the United States might inflict surprise on its adversaries to gain a strategic advantage. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Preventing a Hegemonic Iran
Featuring H. R. McMaster via Policy EdThe United States’ conciliatory foreign policy approach to Iran has overlooked the hostile ideology that drives the regime. Understanding Iranian behavior begins with employing strategic empathy to fully understand the Iranian leadership’s ideology and its desire for hegemonic influence in the Middle East. The United States should improve defenses against the Iranian military and its terrorist proxies, disrupt Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon, and communicate with the Iranian people to expose the regime’s corruption.

What Will Happen When Khamenei Dies?

HUDSON INSTITUTE: SW ASIA

U.S. LEADERSHIP IN YEMEN:  WHY IT MATTERS

U.S. COUNTER TERROR STRATEGY:  HALTING

U.S. INDIA DEFENSE TIES GROWING:  HUDSON INSTITUTE VIDEO

Trump's Bitter Denouement
by Richard A. Epstein via Defining Ideas
His sorry ending should not conceal his administration’s real achievements.

Iran, China, Promise to be the Biggest Tests of Biden's Presidency in 2021

The Caravan: Al-Qaida And The Taliban At The Crossroads.
interview with Russell A. Berman, Cole Bunzel via The Caravan Notebook
What are jihadis saying about the Taliban peace deal and Afghan negotiations?

Three Months After the Abraham Accords, the Palestinians Have Lost the Arab Street

Erdoğan's Reckless Gambit: It's Payback Time

Implications for Israel of the Joint Terrorist Military Exercise in the Gaza Strip
By Omer Dostri, January 8, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The first joint military exercise of the Gaza terrorist organizations was a milestone for Hamas, which wishes to unite these organizations in order to strengthen its control over the Strip as well as its “ambiguity strategy” vis-à-vis Israel. The exercise has implications for Israel at both the strategic and the operational levels as it prepares for a possible conflagration in Gaza.
Continue to full article ->

CHINA'S CHALLENGES AHEAD

Into the danger zone: The coming crisis in US-China relations

Shia Militias Threaten US, Israel in Iraq  by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
December 31, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61912/shia-militias-threaten-us-israel-in-iraq

Tehran’s 20 Percent Enrichment is Designed to Extort Washington
Behnam Ben Taleblu and Andrea Stricker — Newsweek
Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.) built a reputation as a lawmaker with a low profile and a high impact. His recent passing has brought one of his signature pieces of legislation back into the spotlight. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 instituted protections to promote the stability of the national financial system. As the digital era reshapes the economy, we can honor Sen. Sarbanes’ work and legacy by ensuring that the Act continues to serve the same ends he envisioned nearly 20 years ago — promoting American prosperity through responsible corporate governance. Read more

India and Oceania: Potential and Opportunities
Cleo Paskal and Lord Fakafanua — India Foundation

JCPOA 2.0
by John R. Bolton, John Yoo via National Review
he first great conflict of Joseph Biden’s presidency could erupt on the field of national security.

Iran Unveils New Underground Missile Base. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has revealed a large underground missile base near the Persian Gulf.  The announcement was broadcast on Iran’s state TV and comes just after a recent show of force by the U.S. as two B-52 Bombers flew thru the region.  Al Jazeera Jerusalem Post

Hypersonics Illustrate Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
By Abbey Baker, Christian Contardo & Doreen Edelman, National Defense Magazine: “Hypersonics — the science behind missiles that travel in excess of Mach 5 and can quickly change trajectory mid-flight — illustrate the challenges faced by U.S. companies working on emerging technologies.” ​

BESA's Top Ten of 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: During 2020, the BESA Center consolidated its position as the globally most widely read Israeli think tank in its field, with page views growing twofold to nearly 3.5 million. Below are the ten most widely read articles published in 2020. The selections reflect strong reader interest in the COVID-19 pandemic and its origin, great-power rivalries, and Israel’s national security and relations with the Arab world.

​Hamas's Maneuvers Are Defensive - For Now
By Prof. Hillel Frisch, January 8, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Hamas, along with 11 other terrorist organizations working together under a “Joint Operations Headquarters,” recently conducted an exercise involving coordinated extensive rocket and drone launchings. Hamas said the exercise was defensive, but stressed that it remains committed to “liberating” “Palestine.” Israel’s policy of economic pacification is serving to enhance Hamas’s capabilities against it.
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Hoover Fellows Analyze Foreign Policy Challenges For Incoming Presidential Administration
via Hoover Daily Report
The Hoover Institution hosted a virtual online series featuring fellows’ analysis of the foreign policy challenges facing the incoming presidential administration.

Iran's Plan to Topple Arab Leaders  by Khaled Abu Toameh 

IRAQ COLLAPSING READ MORE

GETTING CHINA POLICY RIGHT Derek Scissors testified that to actively improve American competitiveness with China requires a comprehensive strategy and costly implementation.  Staying ahead of a slipping, skittish China

  Bedfellows: Iran and Al Qaeda  by Majid Rafizadeh 

10 years on, Tunisian emotions mixed in birthplace of Arab Spring
 Ten years after the first Arab Spring protests erupted in the central Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid, the locals are still suffering economic hardships amid a lack of government support.

Netanyahu dislikes rotation deal, but also fears elections
 By Dec. 23, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must decide what scares him more: elections with Gideon Saar as contender or rotation with Defense Minister Benny Gantz.

Turkey won't back down from S-400s despite sanctions, says foreign minister
 Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Ankara will "take steps" to respond to the US sanctions unveiled this week.

Jeffrey Mankoff writes: In 2005, Putin famously said that the Soviet collapse represented the greatest geopolitical disaster of the twentieth century; less remarked on was his later observation that anyone wishing to restore it lacked a brain. As Eurasian geopolitics becomes increasingly complicated by the expansion of Chinese power, growing Turkish assertiveness, and questions about the durability of U.S. commitments, Russia’s ability to adapt and thrive should not be underestimated. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​

Robert O. Work writes: The purpose of this new concept is to help guide Joint Force doctrinal and programmatic development by describing a vision for human-machine collaborative battle networks waging high-intensity algorithmic operations against an opposing system of systems. This concept focuses on employing human-machine collaborative battle networks in the 2040 timeframe to guide force development beyond the current future-year defense plan. – Center for a New American Security ​

Rachel Ellehuus and Donatienne Ruy write: By analyzing the internal causes of instability in littoral Mediterranean countries and external influence, the United States can craft a more effective strategy for the Mediterranean. Identifying common threats and opportunities throughout the Mediterranean and enhancing the ability of the United States and NATO to compete along the Southern Flank will be vital for continued success in this region. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​

Will Sudan hand over Islamists to Egypt?
 During a recent meeting, Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the head of Sudan's Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman al-Burhan, discussed the handover of members of the banned Muslim Brotherhood to Cairo.

Failure in Armenian conflict should cause American soul-searching  
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

3 intelligence failures from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict need investigating  
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

The Paradox of Precision: Nonstate Actors and Precision-Guided Weapons by Itamar Lifshitz and Ayal Meents

How To Build Upon Recent Progress in the Middle East

The Al-Masri Assassination: Another Iranian Intelligence Failure
By Dr. Ardavan Khoshnood, November 19, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: On August 7, 2020, the number 2 figure in al-Qaeda, Abdullah Ahmad Abdullah (known as Abu Muhammad al-Masri), was gunned down in Tehran. Al-Masri’s very presence in Iran exhibited the close relationship Tehran has with the Sunni terrorist organization, and his slaying shows the weakness of Iranian counterintelligence. The regime’s frustration at this intelligence failure will likely be expressed through acts of violence. It will probably reform its counterintelligence community and may ask for assistance in this endeavor from both Russia and China.
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Why Does Israel Execute Distant Enemies and Coddle Close Ones?  by Nave Dromi
The Jewish Press
November 18, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61783/the-difference-between-assassinations-near-and-far

No, It’s Not Surprising That Abu Muhammad al-Masri Was Living in Iran
​The Islamic Republic and al-Qaeda have a long history of cooperation.

Our So-Called Foreign Policy: China Advice that Biden (Unfortunately) Could Take

Biden and Erdogan: Five Potential Flashpoints in US-Turkish Relations

DoD Needs to Relearn the (Almost) Lost Art of Net Assessment
By Bryan Clark & Dan Patt & Timothy A. Walton, Strategy Bridge: "Tough choices lie ahead for the U.S. Department of Defense. Government relief in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and rising costs to service the federal debt are expected to constrain discretionary spending, including spending on defense. At the same time its budgets are being squeezed, the U.S. military will need to address a peer competitor in China; creative Russian, Iranian, North Korean adversaries; and a potentially unaffordable approach to deterring and waging war."

The Need to Compete on Multiple Battlegrounds:
An Interview with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster
By Octavian Manea, Small Wars Journal: "Increasingly we are seeing our adversaries attack our will to sustain our foreign policy and our efforts abroad."

Arabs Warn Biden: Do Not Embrace Islamists  by Khaled Abu Toameh 

Jihadi Reactions To The U.S.-Taliban Deal And Afghan Peace Talks
by Cole Bunzel via The Caravan Notebook

WHAT AMERICA FIRST MEANS

Why the U.S. Can and Must Win the Race for Hypersonic Weapons
By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: “Winning the race to deploy hypersonic weapons will be one of the most important achievements in U.S. national security of the 21st Century."

Great Power Competition Comes Home to America
By Bradley Bowman & Shane Praiswater, Defense One: "Our leaders’ efforts to heal divisions among our fellow citizens are key to national defense."

Offensive Advantage and the Vanity of Ethics
By Kevin Kallmes, Notes on Liberty: “All military historians shake their heads in disappointment at the Maginot Line, which Hitler easily circumvented.” ​

Pakistan is bracing for more protests as an alliance of opposition parties builds momentum for a nationwide series of rallies calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Imran Khan. – Bloomberg

Pakistan: Thousands Gather for Anti-Government Protests.  Tens of thousands of opposition supporters rallied in Karachi Sunday as part of a campaign to oust Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan, who they accuse of being installed by the military in a rigged 2018 election.  Al Jazeera Reuters ​

Hussein Ibish writes: The lesson for the Baghdad embassy, he tells me, is to look for an option between keeping the presence as it is and shutting it down altogether, both of which would be big mistakes. “But,” Silliman notes, “the first thing is to decide what the main purpose of the presence is, and then suit the infrastructure to fit the mission.” As with so much else about U.S. policy in the Middle East, the solution to this problem must start with Washington finally deciding what it wants to accomplish. – Bloomberg

Erdogan Declares War on Arabs  by Khaled Abu Toameh  

Alberto M. Fernandez writes: The Erdogan regime thinks it is being very clever, playing one power against another for its own benefit. But the overall result seems to be constant chaos and turmoil which an already burdened West is forced to manage and try to contain. Even if there was some benefit to the U.S. from Turkish aggression in the Caucasus – and such a benefit seems to be tiny if not invisible – it would seem that this long and growing list of Turkey’s regional actions hostile to the U.S. far outweighs any possible benefit from its latest misadventure. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Is Israel Victory Still Needed?
Yes, it offers the only path to end Palestinian rejectionismby Daniel Pipes
Jerusalem Post
October 7, 2020
http://www.danielpipes.org/19847/is-israel-victory-still-needed

ISIS’ David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Frank Pabian: Looking for evidence of the construction of Iran’s new centrifuge assembly plant: New possible preparations identified

READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
September 2020 Map Update: Al Houthi “Balanced Deterrence” Campaign | Jessica Kocan 

Why Palestinians Will Not Accept Advice from Arabs  by Khaled Abu Toameh 

Palestinians: What Failure Looks Like  by Khaled Abu Toameh  

Pakistan’s Navy is racing to plug operational and technological gaps as part of an unprecedented modernization effort, according to the outgoing naval chief, but analysts are divided on whether the move will deter adversaries. – Defense News

Will They Or Won't They? Saudi Recognition of Israel Is the $64,000 Question
By Dr. James M. Dorsey
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Will the Saudis formalize relations with Israel or will they not? Odds are that Saudi Arabia is not about to formalize relations with Israel—but the kingdom, its image tarnished by multiple missteps, is seeking to ensure that it is not perceived as the odd man out as smaller Gulf states establish diplomatic relations with the Jewish state.
Continue to full article ->

Micah Levinson on Prospects for Revolutions in the Middle East  by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
September 30, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61588/levinson-on-revolutions-in-middle-east

Beware Pakistan's Radical Barelvis by Sam Westrop
September 30, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/61589/beware-pakistan-barelvis

The Danger of Dawat-e-Islami  by J.M. Phelps
American Spectator
November 18, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/61785/the-danger-of-dawat-e-islami

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/09/jihadist-ideologues-argue-over-turkeys-erdogan.ph

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/09/generation-jihad-ep-27-counting-al-qaeda.php

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran’s planners assess that naval threats to Iran are increasing. Iran held a drill with the Russian and Chinese navies last year. Iran’s drones have harassed US ships. Now Iran’s missiles are in play as well, as it invests more heavily in military installations along the Gulf coast and adjacent to the Gulf of Oman. Iran has also drilled to attack a mock US aircraft carrier over the last several years. Iran has made mistakes though, sometimes firing on its own ships. – Jerusalem Post

Shirin Ebadi, Abbas Milani, and Hamid Moghadam write: In spite of its radical rhetoric and bravura, the Islamic regime has shown that it responds only to credible international pressure. It must be made to understand that with such egregious breaches of human rights, they have no place in the civilized community of nations. Suspending the regime from sports leagues and international legal organizations is the first step to delivering that powerful message. – The Hill

David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Frank Pabian write: This summer, Iran decided to construct a new underground centrifuge assembly plant, following the destruction of the above ground one at the Natanz enrichment site on July 2, 2020. […]Because of the added difficulties of building an underground site, the completion of a new centrifuge assembly plant able to assemble thousands of advanced centrifuges per year is unlikely in 2021. – Institute for Science and International Security

Andrew Greco writes: The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) continued to deploy to greater Idlib Province between April 1 and October 7, 2020, despite Turkey striking a de-escalation deal with Russia on March 5, 2020.[…]These new deployments have likely resulted in higher overall troop levels, even after Turkey withdrew “hundreds” of TSK and proxy forces on September 8 and continued to deploy Syrian fighters to Libya and Azerbaijan – Institute of the Study of War

Abdullah Al-Jabassini writes: To decrease the likelihood of a regime crackdown, local armed actors should collaborate to fill the security vacuum and end the current state of lawlessness.[…]Without a serious call for action and collaboration, southern Syria is doomed to be a battlefield on which the “sons of the land” are merely the pawns and the victims of internal and external actors. – Middle East Institute

Karagül further stressed that Turkey is spreading throughout the whole region the powerful political wave that started in Anatolia. Turkey’s geopolitical mind is now in South Caucasus, and united with Azerbaijan, it has formed a surprising power. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Nawzad A Shukri writes: A withdrawal of US troops would also almost certainly lead to the collapse of the Iraqi security forces, allowing Iranian-backed Shia militias to dominate the country. ISIS would re-emerge, and instability and ethnic-sectarian conflicts would spread across Iraq. More importantly, a US withdrawal would create political vacuums in Iraq that would almost certainly be filled by Iran and its allies. All these developments would undermine the US and its allies’ position and interests, and would significantly change the regional balance of power in favor of Iran. – Jerusalem Post ​

David Pollock writes: Nevertheless, for now, it seems doubtful that even this truly unusual combination of allies will enable Azerbaijan to recapture all of its disputed territory. […]The most likely scenario, however, is that Baku’s skill at keeping unlikely bedfellows together will continue to preserve its own core interests without altering the fundamental tensions at stake. Neither Israel nor Iran is poised to gain a decisive advantage from either one’s ties with Azerbaijan, which is just the way Baku wants it. – Washington Institute

George Barros writes: It is unclear whether Kyrgyz forces will participate in the Unbreakable Brotherhood given intensifying protests in Bishkek. A Kyrgyz withdrawal from the Unbreakable Brotherhood would likely grant the Kremlin greater opportunity to repurpose the exercises. – Institute for the Study of War

Dan Gouré writes: In addition to long-range, more accurate weapons, the U.S. military needs a revolution in long-range surveillance and targeting. This requires not just deploying more and better sensors but developing advanced data management and analytic capabilities with a heavy reliance on artificial intelligence. The combination of highly lethal fires at all ranges and near-real time precision targeting will change the way the joint force fights in the future. – The National Interest

Defund CENTCOM
(War on the Rocks) After decades of spending trillions of dollars on fruitless wars, Americans are getting frustrated with the Middle East.

WINEP’s Assaf Orion: Hezbollah’s secrets explode and are covered up again

A threat from within': Iraq and the rise of its militias

Putin loses his footing in Russia’s backyard

Derek Scissors writes: It is a cliché to say that getting our own house in order should always be the top priority, but it is also right. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is an economic predator, and stronger American responses, even closing certain sectors to China entirely, are overdue. These responses must be based on sound information, such as exactly how and where Chinese state ownership makes it impossible for Americans to compete. Not only is the US the world’s dominant economy, but it can be indefinitely. – American Enterprise Institute
​
Scott Livingston writes: China’s efforts to formalize CCP control of its commercial sector will have significant ramifications for international trade, forcing more liberal market economies to decide how much state intervention they are willing to tolerate in their trading partners. […]The fact that China has released this opinion at a time of heightened U.S. scrutiny over the government’s links to Huawei and TikTok suggests that China feels confident enough in its system that it is now prepared to advance and defend it on the global stage. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

From 9/11 to Khashoggi: The Saudi Islamist State Within a State (Part III of III)
By Irina Tsukerman, October 4, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Is there a connection between the peak of Islamist activity in Saudi Arabia and current events and controversies, including the unsolved death of former Saudi intelligence officer Jamal Khashoggi, who once assisted Turki Faisal? A growing body of evidence points toward links between some former Saudi government officials swept up in new corruption probes under Muhammad bin Salman and Islamist activity under the Crown Prince’s predecessors. Khashoggi was likely a key witness to all of it, and his knowledge may have doomed him.
Continue to full article ->

BESA CENTER PAGE FOR IRINA TSUKERMAN

HOW COVID DESTROYS SAUDI & GULF LED ECONOMIES

TURKEY'S REAL AIM IS EGYPT

Taliban assaults Helmand capital as U.S. officials plead for a ‘reduction in violence’
U.S. officials continue to maintain that the Taliban committed to a "reduction in violence" as part of the withdrawal agreement. The deal says no such thing, and the Taliban continues to mount attacks.

Sam Westrop on the "Sinister" Mission of Islamic Relief by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
October 14, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61650/westrop-on-the-sinister-mission-of-islamic-relief

Will Russia recruit Syrian Kurds to fight in Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict?
 While Russia will likely avoid direct involvement in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, there are signs it could draw lessons from Libya and recruit fighters from Syria to do its bidding.

Cairo pushes for military agreements in Libya
 Following talks in the Egyptian city of Hurghada, Egypt is supporting Libya’s warring sides as they discuss how to dismantle the militias and unify Libya’s military institutions.

From 9/11 to Khashoggi: The Saudi Islamist State Within a State (Part II of III)
By Irina Tsukerman, October 2, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The role of Islamists in hijacking Saudi governance and major regional Arab and Muslim institutions has long been overlooked. A recent interview with a former Saudi intelligence official who was witness to key events highlights some of the actors who financed extremism and whose role in the planning of 9/11 and other terrorist activity has been ignored for nearly two decades.
Continue to full article ->

AFRICA FILE: NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE AFRICAN SALAFI-JIHADI MOVEMENT
Surveying the state of the Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa is a bleak exercise. Insurgencies are entrenched or expanding across broad swathes of western and eastern Africa, with a new insurgency developing rapidly in Mozambique. The situation is more positive in North Africa, where counterterrorism campaigns have weakened Salafi-jihadi groups significantly in recent years.

Ethiopia. Unrest across several regional states is threatening Ethiopia’s fragile political reforms and risks destabilizing the country.

Somalia. Al Shabaab is escalating attacks in an attempt to disrupt Somalia’s upcoming elections.

Libya. Libyan security forces killed a foreign Islamic State senior leader in the country’s contested southwest.

West Africa. Islamic State affiliates are drawing defectors from rival Salafi-jihadi groups in West Africa. An al Qaeda ally will likely remain dominant in the Sahel, however.

READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
"The US is unprepared for Africa’s growing terror threat

Alliance between Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox survives coronavirus crisis, emerges stronger
The historic alliance between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox parties faced several obstacles throughout the coronavirus, but it is now strengthening.

Don’t trust estimates of Al Qaeda’s strength in Afghanistan
Bill Roggio – FDD's Long War Journal
​
A ‘Tired’ Taliban talking point
Bill Roggio – FDD's Long War Journal

A separate peace in the Middle East
Clifford D. May — The Washington Times
Before there was a Palestinian-Israeli conflict, there was an Arab-Israeli conflict. Last week, on the White House lawn, that older conflict was put to rest. In normal times, we’d agree that the president deserves a Nobel Peace Prize, and that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict should be next up on Washington’s diplomatic to-do list. But these are not normal times. Prior to the ceremony, I received an email announcing: “Over 50 Organizations/Groups to protest the UAE and Bahrain Normalization with Israel During Deal Signing at the White House.” Read more

Trump succeeded where the UN failed

Toward a Transformational Peace in the Middle East  by Guy Millière

Israel’s next peace deal will be with Sudan
Jonathan Schanzer — New York Post
On the heels of the historic peace accords Israel signed last week with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, another regional deal is now possible. Sudan, once a terror safe harbor, is openly mulling ties with the Jewish state. Another major diplomatic achievement beckons, provided Washington gives the right nudges. Team Trump is keen for a domino effect. Sudan is just one possibility. Oman, Morocco and Saudi Arabia are also among states reportedly mulling ties with the erstwhile archenemy. Read more

Simon Henderson writes: The corruption allegation against General Fahd will only enliven rumors that there are other issues in play besides dissatisfaction with the Yemen campaign. Senior princes are rarely sacked from government positions, and when they are, succession-related politics are likely a factor (e.g., Mitab bin Abdullah, son of King Salman’s predecessor, was fired as national guard minister in 2017). For Washington, the change in military leadership could be an opportunity to engage Riyadh on changing its Yemen policy and resolving the protracted crisis once and for all. – Washington Institute

Ibrahim Jalal writes: The U.K.’s dwindling support for the ROYG might be a reflection of evolving realities and British pragmatism, crucial to navigating its interests in post-war Yemen. More than five years after Marriott left, the U.K.’s two conditions for returning to Sanaa remain unrealized, and as London looks to chart a new course after Brexit and in a post-pandemic world, its foreign policy in Yemen seems unlikely to change in the near term. – Middle East Institute
​
Mohammed Soliman writes: The GCC states will have to balance their economic and security interests during this severe global recession, and may need to adjust to increasing pressure from Washington if Joe Biden wins the November election and decides Gulf leaders need to be held to different standards than under the Trump administration. If the GCC states choose to maintain their relationship with Huawei, it will be a clear sign of diminishing U.S. power over its allies. However, if Gulf countries make that choice, they should also be prepared to face retribution for doing so. – Middle East Institute

Paul Wolfowitz writes: Some naïve or wishful Westerners seem to want to dismiss that activity as purely commercial ventures, or to view it as part of a Chinese “Marshall Plan” aimed at buying goodwill among developing nations of the region. […]It may be that the countries that Xi considers responsible for China’s “150 years of humiliation,” will wake up one day to discover that the Persian/Arabian Gulf, once secure under an umbrella of American protection, has become something else entirely. – Hoover Institution
​
Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli writes: There are also large Sunni and Kurdish populations in Iraq, which will reject control of their country by its eastern neighbor. Finally, the world has witnessed the rebellious youth of Iraq, who have demonstrated in the streets of Iraq against both the endemic corruption and Iran’s intervention in their country. Iran’s own financial constraints will place a low ceiling on the level of financial support it can provide to its proxies. Of course, no realist could deny that logic and rational considerations may not always be the dominant factor in determining the fate of nations in that part of the world.  – Middle East Media Research Institute

China’s top leaders next month will lay out their economic strategy for the next five years that will include a new ambition to ramp up domestic consumption and make more critical technology at home in a bid to insulate the world’s second-largest economy from swirling geopolitical tensions. – Bloomberg

Bruce Klingner writes: Abe’s successor will face a daunting challenge of economic doldrums, escalating military threats, and growing uncertainty about the continued viability of its U.S. ally. Japan is a crucially important diplomatic, economic, and security partner to the United States. The U.S.-Japanese bilateral partnership and alliance are based on shared values, principles, and objectives. Washington must do all that it can to support Japan’s next captain as he assumes the tiller to maintain a steady course. – The Daily Signal

The Navy’s new Light Amphibious Warship (LAW) program envisions procuring a class of 28 to 30 new amphibious ships to support the Marine Corps, particularly in implementing a new Marine Corps operational concept called Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO). – USNI News

Steven P. Bucci writes: A theoretical military principle suggests that steady quantitative changes can lead to a sudden, qualitative leap. After many, many years of sustained focus to drive down F-35 costs, the program may be representative of that maxim and allow the Defense Department to fully realize the advantages of the F-35′s gamechanging technologies. – Defense News

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/08/generation-jihad-ep-23-joe-biden-cant-end-the-jihad.ph

Trump Outside-In Mideast Strategy Takes To the Sky
By BENNY AVNI, Second Edition | August 30, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/trumps-outside-in-mideast-strategy-takes-to/91243/
Continue Reading

Will the UAE’s Barakah project launch new era of peaceful nuclear power in the Middle East?
 The recent operation of the reactor at the United Arab Emirates’ Barakah power plant is an important development for both the UAE and the Middle East region, as it marks a new step to break out from the deep and harmful reliance on fossil fuels for power generation.

Turkey’s tilt toward Pakistan provokes India’s ire
The government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is faced with a potential new foe, India, a close ally of Israel, that is loudly signaling it that may join swelling axis of anti-Turkey nations led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Greece.
The acrimony is being channeled through a spate of nasty articles in the Indian media casting Turkey as a malign meddler that is seeking to recruit and radicalize India’s estimated 182 million Muslims in cahoots with Pakistan.  Read Full Article  ​

Seth J. Frantzman writes: If the US wants to understand the mentality it is contending with, it should listen to Rouhani’s speech, which indicates Iran’s regime is not entirely deterred and believes it is on a historic mission. Its belief is bolstered by its own media coverage of support it is getting from other countries. – Jerusalem Post

Alex Fishman writes: It is safe to assume it’s not all about the killing of that same operative in Damascus, but also due to other actions taken by Israel against the organization, which have yet to be revealed to the public. Nasrallah needs a win, be it real or fictitious, to show to his followers.  And so, it is safe to assume the latest round against Hezbollah has not come to an end. – Ynet

Anton Mardasov writes: Going forward, Moscow will try to pressure Assad to introduce at least some superficial changes to the political system against the current backdrop of steadily worsening economic problems. Moscow expects to sell this as evidence that the country is going through a much-needed transformation. – Middle East Institute ​

Jonathan Spyer writes: Until now, however, no force has proven able to harness the potential Sunni power in Lebanon to its cause. […]As of now, however, the first signs are emerging that Sunni Islamist Turkey is seeking to fill the vacuum, and to recruit the Lebanese Sunni street to its banner. Something is happening in northern Lebanon. – Jerusalem Post

WINEP's Michael Knights: Inside the Kadhimi visit to Washington D.C
U.S. sanctions Chinese firms and executives active in contested South China Sea
Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said in an August 24, 2020 interview on Al-Alam TV (Iran) that Iran has 230 tons of heavy water, which he said is used for research. […]Kamalvandi said that Iran has over 1,000 tons of yellowcake and over 3 tons of uranium enriched to 4-4.1%, and he explained that this uranium stockpile is ten times larger than the amount agreed upon in the JCPOA. He also said that Iran can enrich uranium further if the need arises. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Michael Rubin writes: A broader concern, however, is not only Iran’s provision of UAVs to proxy groups in Iraq and Lebanon but also its transfer of the capability to manufacture drones to them. This buys both Iran and its proxies plausible deniability as, when drones are utilized against US interests or those of US allies, there will be a question mark about who ordered their attack […]. Simply put, Iranian drones are here to stay. The threat they pose cannot be underestimated, and they will remain part of the operational environment across the Middle East for decades to come. – American Enterprise Institute

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The whole situation in eastern Syria continues to limp along as it has over the last two and half years, lacking clarity. Overall though the role of the US diplomats who have been intensely pro-Ankara, to the extent that Ankara’s interests seem to come before the US role in Syria, have left confusion, instability and lack of faith in Washington’s commitment. – Jerusalem Post

Michael Rubin writes: After all, Erdogan is a cynic, not a partisan. He reprised the Svengali-role he exerted on Obama after Trump took office, and he clearly seeks to buy his way into any future administration. Just as Trump and his advisers should be held to account for their relationship with Erdogan and his businessman-proxies, it is time Biden recognize his campaign is also very much under an assault by those seeking to promote Erdogan at the expense of democracy and law. – Washington Examiner

Areig Elhag writes: Therefore, Israel must actively seek friendship and a real relationship with all stakeholders in Sudan to guarantee that the Sudanese populace will not reject such a relationship in the future. Ignoring the civilian side of relations will not be in Israel’s future interests, especially as the Forces of Freedom and Change and the Assembly of Professionals, the primary incubator for Prime Minister Hamdok, have a large influence on the Sudanese populace. – Washington Institute

Bayly Winder writes: It is in America’s strategic interest for Oman to maintain its foreign policy independence. Oman does not host a U.S. military base or buy huge amounts of American weapons like some other GCC states, but it is a valuable regional player with an outsized impact. The sultanate has also been an important U.S. military partner of long standing, including hosting U.S. military facilities at Thumrait and Masirah Island and providing the U.S. Navy access to the ports of Duqm and Salalah. – Middle East Institute

Bruce Klingner writes: North Korea is concurrently suffering from severe economic calamities due to international sanctions, self-imposed trade restrictions to stave off the coronavirus, and devastating monsoon rains damaging the agricultural heartland[…]. There has long been debate over the degree to which humanitarian disaster response assistance should be distinguished from large-scale food aid and economic development programs. The U.S. and other nations should be willing to provide immediate aid to ameliorate natural disasters that impact the populace while concurrently refraining from large-scale assistance that benefits the regime’s prioritization of the military over the needs of its citizens. – Heritage Foundation

A new Middle Eastern order is falling into position
(Washington Examiner) When the United Arab Emirates and Israel signed their historic agreement to normalize relations, they were formalizing a shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics that has been in motion for years.

Recently, Hossein Salami, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), gave two speeches to commanders of the IRGC and its Qods Force, which is responsible for operations outside Iran. In the speeches, he explained the essence of the IRGC and of the Qods Force. In both, Salami, who is known for his flowery rhetoric, fulsomely praised the uniqueness of the IRGC, in an attempt to fill his men’s hearts with pride. – Middle East Media Research Institute ​

IRAN:
Revolutionary Guards Poised to Take Over Iran
By Ali Reza Eshraghi & Amir Hossein Mahdavi, Foreign Affairs: “A new saying is making the rounds in Iran: power is being sucked away from heads to toes, which is to say, from men who wear turbans to men who wear boots. Iran’s new parliament furnishes the most recent evidence."

Beware the Irregular Threat in the Littoral
By Walker D. Mills, CIMSEC: “The world is increasingly urban and littoral. This convergence between urbanization and the littoral, or littoralization, can lead to “the worst of both worlds” and may remake the littorals into hotspots of instability and conflict."

Why Did Erdoğan Convert Hagia Sophia Into a Mosque?  By Dr. Edy Cohen, August 27, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently converted Hagia Sophia from a museum into a mosque, a decision that apparently involved no consultation and was executed swiftly after a surprise announcement. What were Erdoğan’s true motivations in taking this provocative step?
Continue to full article ->

​The Revolutionary Guards: The Anatomy of a State Terrorist Organization
By Dr. Reza Parchizadeh, August 26, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) was originally intended by the Islamist regime to be an ideologically oriented militia that would compensate for the regular Iranian army’s lack of revolutionary zeal. It has since replaced the regular army as Iran’s main military force and has spent decades working doggedly to export the regime’s Islamist brand of imperialism and conquest to the rest of the region and around the world. The IRGC is responsible, either directly or indirectly, for most of the worst terrorist outrages the world has ever seen. The US declared the Guards a state terrorist organization in 2019, but it needs to be completely dismantled.
Continue to full article ->

Lebanon may be broken beyond repair
​Its debt is massive, its political class corrupt, and terrorists call the shots

State Department Calls Out Erdogan’s Hosting of Hamas Terrorists

​United States: Washington Imposes Sanctions on Six Members of Assad Government.  The State Department on Thursday announced the imposition of sanctions against six Syrian military, financial, and other governmental officials.  Those designated in sanctions include military commanders and a recruiter, Assad’s media advisor and her husband, and Yasser Ibrahim, whom the State Department described as having “cut corrupt deals that enrich Assad” while obstructing a political solution to the conflict.  The sanctions include economic regulations, including asset freezes and restrictions on business dealings.  Al Jazeera The New York Times State Department

Venezuela: Colombian President Claims Venezuela is trying to Buy Iranian Missiles.  Colombian President Ivan Duque on Thursday said that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is attempting to acquire medium and long-range missiles from Iran while also trying to provide weapons to armed irregular groups in Colombia.  Venezuela’s foreign minister denied the accusations, but Duque insisted that “information from international intelligence organisms” indicates that although Venezuela has not yet acquired the missiles, it is in talks to do so.  France 24 Reuters

Netanyahu’s maneuvers leave Blue and White clueless on budget, elections
 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s constant machinations and tricks leave Blue and White in the dark as to whether he intends to push for new elections next week.

A U.S. Sale of F-35 Stealth Fighters to the UAE Could Be a Middle East Game Changer by Michael Peck
Forbes
August 20, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61411/a-us-sale-of-f-35-stealth-fighters-to-the-uae

Arabs Are Fed Up With the 'Ungrateful' Palestinians  by Khaled Abu Toameh 

In the Wake of the Israel-UAE Deal, Whither the Arab and Muslim World?

The Israel-UAE Peace Agreement Opens the Door

Sudan, Israel in talks toward agreement 
The spokesperson of Sudan’s Foreign Ministry Haidar Badawi al-Sadiq said yesterday that his country is in contact with Israel to advance a peace agreement. Sadiq also hailed the agreement reached between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. A few hours later, Sudan’s acting Foreign Minister Omar Qamar al-Din Ismail, denied the statement, saying the government was “surprised” by the claim by his spokesman that Khartoum and Jerusalem were edging toward reconciliation. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the initial statement. Netanyahu quietly met with the head of Sudan’s transitional government, Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, in Uganda in February to discuss normalizing relations.
Read More  
timesofisrael.com

The Iranian Nuclear Program as a Catalyst for the Israel-UAE Peace Agreement

Don’t Let China Steal the Global Nuclear-Power Industry
Michael Shellenberger, Manhattan Institute
​
The Quiet Revolution In Emerging-Market Monetary Policy
Piroska Nagy-Mohacsi, Project Syndicate

World’s Money Transfer System Is China’s Achilles Heel
Mary Hui, Quartz

Don’t Fall for the ‘Degrowth’ Delusion
David Behrens, CapX

Mossad chief heads to the UAE days after normalization deal 
Israel’s intelligence chief Yossi Cohen arrived in the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, in the first such visit since the two countries announced they had reached a historic agreement to normalize relations last week. Cohen met with Emirati national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan. “The two sides discussed prospects for cooperation in the fields of security as well as exchanged points of view on regional developments and on issues of common interest,” the official Emirati official WAM news agency said. The US-brokered deal, in which Israel agreed to suspend its plan to annex parts of the Palestinian West Bank, was seen as a new move to bolster opposition against Iran’s regional influence.
Read More  
al-monitor.com

Lebanon’s government resigned after the Beirut port blast. Here’s what needs to happen now.

With friends like these…Key European allies side with Tehran, Moscow and Beijing

Ending United States Military Operations in Somalia by Paul D. Williams

Lessons from Conflicts Between Nuclear and Non-Nuclear States by Alexander Lanoszka

Diplomatic Breakthrough: Israel, United Arab Emirates Normalize Ties with Natan Sachs

The Pandemic and U.S. Defense Spending with Matt Vallone

James Fenimore Cooper and the American Republic

Iran File   is a biweekly analysis of the Iranian regime's strategic efforts domestically and abroad.
NEWLY EMPOWERED HARDLINERS MOVE AGAINST ROUHANI
Iran’s newly empowered hardliners will undermine President Hassan Rouhani for the remainder of his term and likely facilitate the election of a far-right president in 2021. Rouhani lost vital political support when former IRGC Air Force Commander Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf replaced Ali Larijani as parliament speaker in May. Hardliners are using their newfound legislative influence to promote aggressive and authoritarian policies, undermining Rouhani’s political promises.

Ghalibaf is also likely coordinating with hardliners outside Parliament to politically neutralize Rouhani. A hardliner will likely become president in 2021 as Rouhani is further discredited. Expanding hardliner control will facilitate increasingly aggressive and authoritarian Iranian behavior while exacerbating economic turmoil and domestic dissent.

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Iran’s entrenchment of strategic infrastructure in Syria threatens balance of deterrence in the Middle East
Iran is realigning its force posture in Syria to retain and expand its deterrence, freedom of action, and leverage with the US, Israel, and Russia. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) began moving some of its forces in Syria away from the front lines in the spring of 2020 while expanding and consolidating its footprint in eastern Syria. This shift offers Tehran more secure bases more directly under its control to threaten Israel and the US as instability risks some of its positions in Iraq and Lebanon.  Read the full article here.

Turkey on the Warpath  by Uzay Bulut  •

With a Potential Iran-China Deal, Time for Israel to Reassess Its Policy

Will Israel Find Itself Facing Down Iran, Turkey, and the US in Libya?
By Irina Tsukerman, July 27, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel does not need to be directly engaged in combat to help its allies confront and prevail over mutual adversaries. In Libya, it can play a role in training LNA troops, provide important logistical and intelligence support, and politically influence Washington to cease its backing of the GNA and hostile Islamist militias and state actors.
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Trump's Dangerous Diplomacy with Erdoğan  By Shay Attias, July 26, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: America’s reputation as a credible actor is an essential matter for US foreign policy, but it has weakened significantly throughout this century. George Bush’s war on the “axis of evil” failed, and Barack Obama’s “red line” speech proved empty. Today, Donald Trump is abandoning allies and conducting dangerous diplomacy with anti-democratic tyrants.
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Libya: Russian Military Equipment Sent to Libya Despite Arms Embargo.  The Pentagon released satellite photographs on Friday alongside a statement saying that Russia was still supplying weapons, aircraft, and armored vehicles to Libya despite the arms embargo. Africa Command (AFRICOM) deputy director of intelligence General Gregory Hadfield said "the type and volume of equipment demonstrates an intent toward sustained offensive combat action capabilities, not humanitarian relief, and indicates the Russian Ministry of Defense is supporting these operations."  The Moscow Times Reuters RFE/RL

Israel: Defense Minister Visits Israel Defense Forces Northern Command Amid Tensions.  Defense Minister and alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz visited Israel Defense Forces Northern Command Sunday, to warn that Israel will continue to protect security interests.  Gantz said “The State of Israel has no interests in Syria or Lebanon, except for security interests” he added that Israel “will continue to ensure our security interests.”  Gantz explained that ensuring security included preventing entrenchment of Iranian forces, blocking transfer of advanced weapons and preventing the development of precision missiles.  Albawaba Israel National News The Jerusalem Post

VOX

Explosion at Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran with Ariane Tabatabai

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/07/09/fortify-the-iran-sanctions-wall/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-cant-be-stopped-in-nuke-bid-but-can-be-deterred-says-former-mossad-chief/
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/middle-east/1594213363-iran-vows-to-bolster-syria-s-air-defenses-official
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/world/middleeast/iran-Natanz-nuclear-damage.html
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-launches-reconnaissance-satellite-into-space/

Why reassessing Israel’s risky relationship with China matters
Mark Dubowitz and Richard Goldberg — Ynet News
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently called on the United Nations Security Council to reimpose, or “snapback,” international sanctions and restrictions on the Islamic Republic of Iran – a terror-sponsoring regime that seeks to wipe Israel off the map. Just as the prime minister was speaking, another country was addressing the Security Council in defense of Iran: the People’s Republic of China. Read more

The Mysterious Explosions at Iran's Nuclear Facilities
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, July 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Three incidents, including two explosions at nuclear facilities, have shaken Iran in recent days. Were they connected? Were they caused by accidents or were they carried out by a foreign power? If the latter, were they executed via cyberattack? And what will be their domestic and international implications?
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The Sovereignty Debate Has Changed Israeli Discourse
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, July 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The moment the issue of extending Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and parts of the West Bank emerged, it took on a dynamic of its own. Not only did the opposing sides’ positions grow sharper and more polarized, but the way claims are being made—accompanied by fear-mongering and threats—has changed the dynamic of the internal Israeli debate on the Israeli-Palestinian problem.
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Seth J. Frantzman writes: The US says it wants to confront Russia in Libya. Everyone seems to want a piece of the action. None of the countries involved seem to have any interest in the Libyan people or stabilizing the country after a decade of civil war. It looks more like a test bed for Turkish weaponry and Chinese drones, as well as for Russian and Turkish air-defense systems. – Jerusalem Post

The emerging narrative of China’s rise in the Middle East as a counter to American influence rests on the skewed portrayal of a few large investments. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Karen Young debunks the narrative and points out that Beijing gets far more credit than it is due for investments in the region. China’s agenda in the Middle East is about China, not about sharing a development ideology or improving access to capital. For all the hype around Beijing’s supposed advantage of state capitalism, China has not yet proved to be a good investor or a desirable development partner for the Middle East — and certainly not a great power. Read here.

According to a recent joint statement by Pakistan and Afghanistan, “The soil of either country should not be used against the other.” If Pakistani leaders are serious, Islamabad should no longer allow its soil to be used as a safe haven for Taliban leaders, argues Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. It is time for Pakistan’s civilian government and the military to recognize that the reason no one in Afghanistan takes its diplomatic promises seriously is that the road map is clear on how to fulfill them, but Pakistan so far refuses to even start moving in the right direction. Continue here.

Countering China as an economic power and alternate political and development model is a centerpiece of US national security policy. Countering China in the Middle East, however, has proved challenging due to inconsistencies in US policy and with the growing perception of China's attractiveness to the region, notes Karen Young in Al-Monitor article. Framing the discussion of China’s role in the Middle East as a zero-sum game of choosing either US or Chinese patronage has only increased Beijing’s clout in the region. But there is no stark choice for the Gulf states to decouple from Washington or Beijing, only opportunities lost. Learn more here

Anna Borshchevskaya on Russia's Military Activity in the Eastern Mediterranean
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Radio
July 5, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61185/borshchevskaya-on-russias-military-activity-in-liby

Qatar's Anti-Saudi Seeds of the Islamist Quartet
By Irina Tsukerman, July 2, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Islamist Quartet consists of Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan, and Malaysia. The seeds of its agenda were planted by Qatari Emir Hamad’s and Libyan dictator Muammar Qhaddafi’s plot to take down the Saudi royal family and divide the Kingdom. Qatari lobbyists have since managed to bury the long history and strategic depth of these relationships by reshaping the narrative with a focus on the 2017 Gulf Crisis.
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Can Palestinian Despair Lead to End of Conflict? by Nave Dromi
JNS
June 25, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61175/can-palestinian-despair-lead-to-end-of-conflic

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-putin-rouhani-to-hold-syria-talks-kremlin-156155

· https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/06/19/the-caesar-act-and-a-pathway-out-of-conflict-in-syria/
·       https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/lebanon-ambassador-hezbollah-shea-media-ban/2020/06/28/15adec2a-b89f-11ea-9a1d-d3db1cbe07ce_story.html
·         https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-iraq-s-leadership-is-finally-setting-limits-on-iranian-intervention-1.8962450

How Putin Is Winning in Syria by Leni Friedman Valenta and Jiri Valenta
Middle East Quarterly
Summer 2020 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/61032/how-putin-is-winning-in-syria

Trump's Syria Policy Is Working by Jonathan Spyer
Foreign Policy
July 1, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61178/trump-syria-policy-is-working

Why Is Russia Undermining International Efforts in Syria?
 // Emma Beals
​Western negotiators must give no ground in Moscow's attempts to evade its responsibilities.

How Palestinians Terrorize Their Own People  by Bassam Tawil  •

The Mullah's Spies and Assassinations in the West  by Majid Rafizadeh