Hal Brands, Peter Feaver, and William Inboden identify and “stress test” 17 key assumptions of this new consensus.
The Sudanese army said the RSF had tried to attack its troops after witnesses reported heavy gunfire in multiple parts of the country. Read More...
Jonathan Spyer writes: If Israel continues to avoid escalation to war, it may eventually find that its deterrence erodes to the point that it can no longer guarantee Israelis normal lives. The desire for normalcy pursued at too high a cost ends up forfeiting the very thing it seeks. Israel should as a matter of urgency pursue the goal of restoring the eroded balance of terror that had largely held since 2006—even if this entails hitting the senior and junior members of the Iran-led regional axis. – Wall Street Journal
- "Iran is pushing Israel toward a multi-theater conflagration," Jacob Nagel, Israel Hayom
- "Israel Answers Rocket Barrage with Air Raids in Lebanon and Gaza Strip," FDD Experts, FDD Flash Brief
Chuck Freilich writes: And now, we face a possible perfect storm, one which Israel’s intelligence agencies have been warning about for months, of a multi-front war. One need not be unusually creative to imagine the glee with which Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas must be viewing the disarray and self-inflicted processes of destruction underway in Israel. – Haaretz
Andrew Tabler writes: If there is not progress, the Arab countries normalising with al-Assad and engaging in reconstruction will almost certainly be hit with Treasury designations and other sanctions violations. Unless there are major changes in the way al-Assad rules and does business, including his tolerance of Iranian militias and assets on Syrian soil and Captagon production facilities, this will be yet another exercise of throwing good Arab money after bad to recoup their steady losses against Iran in the Levant. – Al Majalla
Seth J. Frantzman writes: However, today the Syrian regime is not in the same spot that it was back in 2015 or 2016. The regime is now seeking to retake more parts of the country. Syria is working with Russia and in talks with Iran and Turkey. Those talks continue to falter regarding Turkey’s withdrawal from northern Syria. However, the overall trend is clear. The regime wants to portray itself as in charge of the country. At the same time, the regime enables instability through the kinds of incidents like the rocket fire on Saturday night and Sunday morning. – Jerusalem Post
Seth J. Frantzman writes: However, today the Syrian regime is not in the same spot that it was back in 2015 or 2016. The regime is now seeking to retake more parts of the country. Syria is working with Russia and in talks with Iran and Turkey. Those talks continue to falter regarding Turkey’s withdrawal from northern Syria. However, the overall trend is clear. The regime wants to portray itself as in charge of the country. At the same time, the regime enables instability through the kinds of incidents like the rocket fire on Saturday night and Sunday morning. – Jerusalem Post
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Hezbollah doesn’t appear deterred, since it controls the area from which rockets were fired. In addition, Hamas leaders openly fly into Beirut and meet with Palestinian Islamic Jihad and plotted the attacks this past week during Passover. […]It’s also not clear if those who backed the deal and said it would include security will revisit this question and pressure Lebanon regarding its hosting of extremist groups. – Jerusalem Post
Salem Alketbi writes: Additionally, the evidence shows that the region is going through rapid transformations, making it challenging to rule out any possibilities. However, everything still hinges on Israel’s conduct and decisions, which must factor in these significant changes and act in a manner that advances its interests with Arab and Gulf states, particularly concerning de-escalating the situation with the Palestinians. – Jerusalem Post
Neville Teller writes: Saudi leaders no doubt believe that restoring diplomatic relations is a useful political ploy, but surely appreciate that the deal is superficial and cannot begin to touch the real problems that the Iranian regime poses to the Saudi kingdom and the rest of the world. The Sunni Arab world recognized some time ago who its main enemy was. The Abraham Accords are one outcome. Saudi Arabia is widely perceived as on the brink of joining the association. Would its new reconciliation with Iran withstand the shock? – Jerusalem Post
Neville Teller writes: Saudi leaders no doubt believe that restoring diplomatic relations is a useful political ploy, but surely appreciate that the deal is superficial and cannot begin to touch the real problems that the Iranian regime poses to the Saudi kingdom and the rest of the world. The Sunni Arab world recognized some time ago who its main enemy was. The Abraham Accords are one outcome. Saudi Arabia is widely perceived as on the brink of joining the association. Would its new reconciliation with Iran withstand the shock? – Jerusalem Post
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