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IRAN REPOSITIONS ITSELF IN SYRIA WITH A NUCLEAR BOMB; iraq, syria and turkish foreign postures reviewed

6/8/2020

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Egypt’s top fatwa authority raises controversy after describing Ottoman control of Constantinople as 'occupation'
 Egypt’s Dar al-Ifta described the Ottoman conquest of Constantinople as an invasion, raising controversy in Turkey and among critics who believe religious authorities should not get involved in politics.
U.S., IRAQ:
U.S.-Iraq Strategic Talks Launched With Increasing National, Regional Support

By John Doe, The National Interest: “The strategic dialogue between Iraq and the United States opened at 9 a.m. Eastern time on June 11 and continued for two hours. The first meeting in the series covered four major topics."
Special report: Inside the proxy battle that keeps an Iraqi city on its knees
WINEP’s Ben Fishman: Shifting tides in Libya require more active U.S. involvement
  • Troubled Iran struggles to maintain sway over Iraq militias
  • Institute for Science and International Security: The alleged nuclear weapons development site near Abadeh, Iran
  • Institute for Science and International Security: Iran defies the International Atomic Energy Agency: The IAEA’s latest Iran safeguards report
  • "Russian air defense systems outmatched by Turkish drones in Syria and Libya," Seth Frantzman, FDD's Long War Journal
  • "Iran’s Islamic 'revolution has no borders,’ says Torkilmaz," Benjamin Weinthal, The Jerusalem Post
Iranians desperately need a better Voice of America
​
Alireza Nader | Senior Fellow
Saeed Ghasseminejad | Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor
Yaakov Katz writes: This semiannual assessment is of particular importance on three counts. One is the prediction that none of Israel’s enemies – not Iran, Syria, Hezbollah nor Hamas – have any plans to initiate a war against the Jewish state in the coming year. Second is that ultimately, everything is about Iran, which continues to top any Israeli threat assessment due to its nuclear program, its continued support of terrorist proxies and its development and production of long-range ballistic missiles. – Jerusalem Post
Bobby Ghosh writes: Then, it was Haftar who walked away, gambling that he could get better terms at the gates of Tripoli. With the Egyptian cease-fire plan a non-starter, the rebel commander — the besieger turned besieged — might want to achieve a face-saving battlefield victory, or at least to grind down the GNA advance at Sirte, before he agrees to any deal. – Bloomberg
Michael Rubin writes:  The United Nations found that the Taliban continue to profit tremendously from heroin and the illegal narcotics trade, and that they have also moved into methamphetamine production and trafficking. All of it means that continuing the current peace deal empowers terrorists and drug cartels as cancerous to regional security as those in Mexico and Central America. Make no mistake: Wishful thinking now will kill American civilians later. – Washington Examiner

Javid Ahmad writes: For now, it is hard to imagine a way forward for Afghanistan. The running challenge is that the United States remains undecided about what it wants to do with Afghanistan. But whatever the U.S. decides in the coming months, the threat posed by overlapping alliances of the Taliban-allied jihadist groups should not be ignored. – The Hill
Nick Grinstead writes: It now seems clear that Iran is repositioning within Syria, rather than withdrawing, and that this is a result of a combination of factors, including the coronavirus. The repositioning should be viewed as a shift in priorities away from the east of Syria to the southwest, closer to Israel. It is likely that Iran felt that it had achieved its main objective of securing al-Mayadin and Abu Kamal and that paying for troops to stay there and get routinely hit by Israeli air strikes was no longer worth it. Further, the fact that NDF units in southern Raqqa did not receive their salaries for several months indicates that they were not a priority for Iran in the wake of the pandemic and that it was best to cut its losses in that area. – Middle East Institute
Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write: Economic and diplomatic competition between the United States and Iran is ramping up as both sides attempt to control the conditions leading up to the US-Iraq Strategic Dialogue in mid-June. Iran seeks to ensure that Iraq continues to import Iranian energy, a key economic driver for Iran’s sanctions-battered economy. Iraq relies on those imports to bolster its under-funded, often-strained electrical grid. The United States is aiming to reduce Iraqi reliance on Iranian imports by encouraging investments by US and allied companies and leveraging its sanctions waivers. – Institute for the Study of War
James A. Warren writes: The dream of re-establishing that caliphate remains strong in the hearts of the believers, while the fecklessness of the government in Iraq, and its failure to address the grievances of Sunni Muslims, who constitute about 20 percent of its population, only lend credence to predictions that ISIS will rise again in the very heart of the Middle East. – The Daily Beast ​
Christopher Hamill-Stewart writes: Soleimani’s death hurt Iran. It ushered in six months of foreign-policy failure, domestic strife during the coronavirus pandemic and a slow-motion economic collapse within Iran. Without the “shadow commander,” the regime’s grip on its proxies and regional influence appear to be in retreat. It would be premature, however, to count Tehran out completely. – Arab News
​

Kevjn Lim writes: Absent self-sufficiency and geopolitical stability, even a government with robust reserves would do well to diversify its grain supply basket, or at least be able to do so on short notice. In Tehran, however, guns are generally sexier than butter when it comes to making budgetary decisions and crafting foreign policy. This ethos leaves the country vulnerable to big supply shocks, food shortages, and spiraling prices that can produce effects no less momentous than wars. – Washington Institute
Seth J. Frantzman writes: The Syrian regime thought it was finally out of the woods in its almost decade-long civil war. It recaptured southern Syria in 2018 and has pushed up against US forces along the Euphrates. It has launched offensives into Idlib with Russian and Iranian backing. […]But the regime is gutted and weak. It has no finances and is fighting internally with family feuds within the Assad ruling clan. That means it is like a house of cards: very fragile. Russia can’t save the regime from everything. – Jerusalem Post
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