"So long as Iran dominates the Middle East, a new Baghdadi will rise," Tzvi Kahn, The Hill
Jennifer Cafarella and Jason Zhou write: The U.S. is pursuing the wrong diplomatic goal. American policymakers are biased toward viewing a cessation of hostilities as the most important sign of diplomatic progress in Syria and thus overlook opportunities to shape Syria’s long-term trajectory. The U.S. must widen its aperture for what diplomacy in Syria can and must achieve. The U.S. should set as its overarching goal keeping space open for political competition within Syria and reinvigorating and relegitimizing a stale and discredited diplomatic process. – Institute for the Study of War
Neil Hauer writes: It is of course impossible to predict the future here, but it seems very likely that Moscow has finally bitten off more than it can chew in its Syria ceasefire-keeping operations. Separating regime and rebel soldiers, or even patrolling an inactive Turkish-Kurdish frontline is one thing; pacifying an active war zone and preventing the outbreak of a full-blown insurgency is another. […]Whatever comes next, it is certain that Russia’s military police have their work cut out for them in north Syria. – Middle East Institute
"Uranium Particles Found in Iran: Why it Matters," Andrea Stricker and Tzvi Kahn, FDD Policy Brief
JPost’s Seth J. Frantzman: Syria is an increasingly dangerous chessboard for Iran in the Middle East
A new public report, Iran’s Military Power, produced by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, details how the 40-year-old Islamic regime boosts its relatively weak conventional forces with “a hybrid approach to warfare” that relies on missiles, naval forces, and proxies to threaten its neighbors. – Washington Examiner
Iran is building space capabilities that could be a launching pad to developing intercontinental ballistic missiles and has made progress in its efforts to disrupt GPS and communication satellites, according to a new report from the Defense Intelligence Agency. – C4ISRNET
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Now Iran must decide its next step in Syria. The role of its IRGC Quds Force has been key to supporting the Assad regime while also benefiting on the side. But Iran understands that its role is entangled with the regime and also with Russia. Its presence must not undermine either of these two. In addition, the Syrian regime and Russians are focused more on the north today, while there are questions about what the US is doing in the east. […]Towards that end, it has invested in new missiles, drones and other technology which it has transferred to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. While those transfers have made Iran’s role in Syria even more dangerous, any seasoned chess player knows that pieces spread too thinly across the chessboard may result in checkmate. – Jerusalem Post
John Dunford writes: Russia also likely intends to deploy new air defense systems to Qamishli, allowing it to constrain further the freedom of movement of the U.S. in Eastern Syria. Meanwhile, the U.S. expanded its ground patrol routes to villages west of Qamishli. The U.S. will thus likely come into closer contact with the growing number of pro-regime forces – including Russians – based in and around Qamishli. – Institute for the Study of War
Earl Anthony Wayne and Christopher D. Kolenda write: The U.S. approach needs to test credibility and build trust via a step-by-step process, and, if successful, work toward reductions in violence and toward Afghan political negotiations. Efforts may best advance by initially pursuing simple measures that do not require large concessions and building from there. These could include coordinated statements of peace principles, shared disaster hotlines, joint civilian casualty investigations, etc. If the Taliban fail to partake in such steps, then the futility of additional efforts will be clear. – The Hill
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