islamism is taking africa; iraq goes back into us orbit and libyan civil war rages; US BUILDS NEW INTERCEPTORS

Options for a United States Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa
By Damimola Olawuyi, Divergent Options: "For the foreseeable future, any foreign policy towards Africa will need a robust counter terrorism component."

Turkey and the Libyan and Syrian Civil Wars
By Col. (res.) Dr. Dan Gottlieb and Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar, May 4, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is constantly looking for opportunities to enhance its status as a regional superpower and promote its Islamist ideology in the Arab Middle East. Libya is the newest arena in which Erdoğan is trying to capitalize on inter-Arab rivalries, this time in service to his desire to lay claim to gas under the seabed of the Mediterranean.
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​Tunisia extends state of emergency another month 
Tunisia announced on Wednesday that the state of emergency in force since 2015 will be extended by an additional month, according to a presidential statement. The announcement coincides with the government’s plan to ease the coronavirus-linked lockdown beginning next week. Tunisia has been under a state of emergency since November 2015, when a suicide bombing in Tunis claimed by the Islamic State killed 12 presidential guards.
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africa.cgtn.com

Kenneth Pollack assesses the appointment of Mustafa al-Khadimi, an Iraqi nationalist selected with the task of forming a government, and concludes that if there were ever a moment to build a strong independent Iraq, the time is now. Mustafa Kadhimi may be the last, best hope to begin moving Iraq in a better direction. Shouldn’t we help him help us? Read here.

Following last week’s disarray in oil markets, Karen Young took to Al-Monitor to explain that the problem of weak demand for energy products combined with a fear of a slow Chinese economic recovery pose a major concern for Gulf oil producers. The volatility in energy prices is a reflection of the uneven nature of global demand recovery and any expected reopening of national economies. Thus, Gulf producers must navigate an angry White House and Congress (with the threat of tariffs), uncertainty regarding Asian partners, and demand due to the pandemic. Learn more here.

West Africa hosts a network of Salafi-jihadi groups that is expanding as local conditions deteriorate. In a new AEI report, Katherine Zimmerman analyzes how the Sahel-based Salafi-jihadi groups coordinate and cooperate across organizational divides to create an ecosystem of ideology and terror. In an interactive graphic, Zimmerman displays how the groups’ coordinated effort to transform Sahelian society and governance into their vision under Islam has helped destabilize the region and has created opportunities for Salafi-jihadi growth. Read the full report here and view the interactive graphic here.

International crises that predate the coronavirus pandemic in Syria, Libya, and West Africa are getting worse with negative implications to US national security. In a RealClearWorld op-ed, Emily Estelle argues that the wars in Syria and Libya are creating conditions for which the US is unprepared and potential geopolitical crises in African states are at the verge of exacerbating. The US will wake up from its COVID-19 nightmare to renewed national security horrors if our leaders fail to take the right lesson from the pandemic: The best policy is one of early recognition and preemptive action. Read it here.

WINEP’s Farzin Nadimi: Iran's evolving approach to asymmetric naval warfare

Farzin Nadimi writes: The study, which includes maps, tables, and other graphics, covers everything from submarines to sea mines, while also distinguishing between the roles of the revolutionary navy (IRGCN) and the conventional one (IRIN). Most important, it offers a sober take on Iran’s capabilities and intentions during a perilously unstable time. – Washington Institute

Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write: Iraq’s political elites are conditioning their support for Prime Minister (PM)-designate Mustafa al-Kadhimi on the composition of his cabinet. The widening rift between Kadhimi and Iran-backed blocs has led Kadhimi to preserve the traditional system of ethno-sectarian quota filling, to marginalize protester demands, and to step up his comments about the “unjustified foreign [US] presence” in an attempt to mend ties. Behind the scenes, the US and Iran have continued their competition to influence Iraq’s future – Institute for the Study of War

eth J. Frantzman writes: The reduction of the Iraqi army presence and outsourcing of border security and raids to the PMU has the result of enabling sectarian militias to run the borders of Iraq, as opposed to the more unifying aspects of the Iraqi army. Despite years of training the Iraqi army to conduct anti-ISIS operations, it appears the PMU wants to keep the lion’s share of these operations to themselves, controlling rural areas and using the control to further political and economic goals. – Jerusalem Post

Sheikh Sadiq Al-Ghariani, who is regarded by the Muslim Brotherhood as the Grand Mufti of Libya, said in a video that aired on Al-Tanasuh TV (Libya) on April 15, 2020, that shari’a permits suicide bombings on the condition that they rattle the enemy, cause great harm and losses to the enemy, and cause a crushing defeat. – Middle East Media Research Institute

The fight to build America’s next missile interceptor has officially begun. The Missile Defense Agency on Friday released its request for proposal for its Next-Generation Interceptor (NGI). The RFP aims to downselect to two companies who will then compete for the right to build the interceptor, which will form the core of America’s homeland missile defense going forward. – Defense News

Thomas G. Mahnken writes: We need to learn from the past in developing the next generation of weapons. For example, in recent months, Australian defense analysts have discussed the attractiveness of the B-21 Raider stealth bomber for Australia’s defense needs. Export of the B-21 to a close ally such as Australia, should Canberra so desire, should be given serious consideration. The current situation is challenging, with even more difficult times to come. If we are smart, however, we can both keep Americans at work and get what we need for national defense. – Defense New

Trump Can Either Leave the Middle East or Have War With Iran
By Trita Parsi, RealClearDefense: "Mindful of the dwindling importance of Middle East oil to the U.S. and the U.S.’s lack of resources and expertise to “fix” dysfunctional states in that region, the cost-benefit analysis of retaining military hegemony in the Middle East no longer makes sense."

In Defense of Deterrence
By Michael Rühle, National Institute for Public Policy: "As the international environment is characterized by increased competition, the concept of deterrence, after over two decades of having received scant attention in the West, has re-entered the strategic lexicon."

Coronavirus Threatens to Drive Wedge into US-Gulf Relations
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, May 4, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: It is early days, but first indications are that the global coronavirus pandemic is entrenching long-drawn Middle Eastern geopolitical, political, ethnic, and sectarian battle lines rather than serving as a vehicle to build bridges and boost confidence. Gulf states are taking contradictory approaches to the problem of ensuring that entrenched conflicts do not spiral out of control as they battle the pandemic and struggle to cope with the economic fallout.
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