Benny Gantz and the pyromaniacal cockpit

A minority government will unravel Blue and White

The High Court is making society suffer  ​

Blue and White's Plan B will backfire

THE STATE OF PLAY IN ISRAELI POLITICS AFTER THE ELECTION

History Won't Wait For Gantz To Bow To Israel's Voters
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | March 20, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/history-wont-wait-for-gantz-to-bow-to-israels/91056/

Israel faces showdown over Knesset reopening 
Israel faces a political showdown over the functioning of the Knesset as speaker Yuli Edelstein of the ruling Likud party tries to shut down parliament, citing coronavirus concerns, while rival parties cry foul. The main opposition Blue and White party has accused Edelstein of trying to prevent the Knesset from forming new committees following this month's general elections, in order to block legal action against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following his indictment on corruption charges. Several parties are seeking to replace Edelstein while pushing bills that would prevent an indicted politician from leading the government. Israel's High Court this week ordered that Knesset committees be formed by March 23.

The showdown comes as negotiations continue over the formation of Israel's next government. Blue and White leader Benny Gantz has 24 more days to try to cobble together a ruling coalition before his mandate expires and another political leader is given the chance. Gantz has the support of a bare majority of 61 Knesset members for the task, but two members of his own party refuse to back any government supported by the Joint List of major Arab Israeli parties, making the task appear insurmountable. Meanwhile, negotiations continue between Blue and White and the Likud on a possible unity government in which Gantz and Netanyahu would rotate as head of government.

The Struggle for Israel's Jewish Soul
By Prof. Efraim Karsh and Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, March 16, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The possibility of an Israeli minority government that relies on the Joint Arab List underscores the clear and present danger of accommodating political parties and movements that reject the existence of the Jewish state and propagate Israel’s transformation into a Palestinian Arab (Muslim) state.
Continue to full article ->

 Netanyahu rival gets first shot at forming next government 
Israeli President Reuven Rivlin today officially tasked Benny Gantz, the leader of the Blue and White party, with trying to form the next government. The move comes after Gantz picked up endorsements from a diverse coalition including the secular nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party of former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, the Joint List of major Arab-Israeli parties and six out of seven members of the center-left Labor-Gesher-Meretz party. Gantz now has one month to try to assemble a governing coalition.

Adding to the political uncertainty, Rivlin summoned Gantz and Netanyahu Sunday evening for an “urgent conversation” regarding the “possibility of forming a government immediately,” according to a statement from the president's residence. Netanyahu has been calling for Blue and White to join a unity government with his Likud party to combat the spread of the coronavirus. Separately, the government on Sunday approved short-term mass surveillance of Israelis’ phones to help track the interactions of people diagnosed with the virus. The measure, which has raised privacy concerns, requires final approval from the Knesset’s subcommittee on clandestine services.
Read More  
timesofisrael.com

Netanyahu goes on trial 

After an unprecedented third election in less than 12 months, Israel's political system experiences another seismic shock this coming week as a sitting prime minister goes on trial for the first time in the country's history. Benjamin Netanyahu is set to appear Tuesday in Jerusalem District Court for the start of his trial in three separate criminal cases in which he is accused of exchanging political favors for personal gain. Last week, the prime minister's defense team asked for a 45-day delay, arguing that they did not receive all the documents they are entitled to from the prosecution. But the court rejected the request and said the trial will go ahead as planned, with Netanyahu in person expected to attend.

The trial comes as Israel struggles to form a government following March 2 elections that once again resulted in a deadlock between Netanyahu's coalition of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties and a center-left bloc dominated by the Blue and White party of Benny Gantz. President Reuven Rivlin is expected to begin consultations on Sunday with party leaders to decide who should get the first stab at trying to cobble together a governing coalition. Netanyahu initially proclaimed victory after his coalition won 58 seats — three shy of the 61 needed for a majority — but since then Gantz has worked to assemble a minority government supported on the outside by the Arab Joint List.
​
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus has added another layer of uncertainty to the mix. With the number of cases now topping 100 and the government banning large gatherings and closing schools for a month, Netanyahu on Thursday called for the formation of a short-term national unity government to combat the epidemic. Such a government, Netanyahu said, “would be an emergency government for a limited time, and we will fight together to save the lives of tens of thousands of citizens.”

UNITY GOVERNMENT POSSIBLE?

Israel’s Gantz ready to do whatever it takes to topple Netanyahu
 Blue and White leader Benny Gantz is now ready to do whatever it takes to topple Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including going back on his promise not to establish a government backed by the Arab Joint List.

Israel’s right engaged in wild anti-Arab incitement
 Blue and White leader Benny Gantz’s attempts to establish a minority government with the support of the Arab Joint List is leading right-wing ministers to intensify their inciteful tone against Arab legislators.

​Is Israel's 'Sovereignty Road' project step toward annexation?
 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s interim government is busily advancing various annexation moves with the excuse of addressing the settlers’ living conditions

A Gantz-led government, recipe for Jewish-Arab reconciliation?
 Partnership with Arab and Muslim parties is not a "problem," but an opportunity to heal Israeli society and advance Jewish-Muslim reconciliation.

China's New Silk Road Strategy and the Middle East
By Dr. Mordechai Chaziza, March 8, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In recent years, the People’s Republic of China has significantly increased its economic and diplomatic engagement with the Middle East. Most of Beijing’s investment in the region focuses on energy, infrastructure construction, nuclear power, new energy sources, agriculture, and finance. These investments serve not only China’s interests but also those of Middle Eastern countries hoping to boost their economies as a means of strengthening social stability.
Continue to full article ->

​Does Jewish-Arab partnership to form government stand a chance in Israel?
 The Likud is continuing its campaign of incitement against Arab party representatives to head off their helping form a minority government led by Blue and White.

Does Israel's Gantz stand a chance at establishing a government?
The chances of Blue and White leader Benny Gantz establishing a minority government with Avigdor Liberman and the support of the Arab Joint List are not high, yet the risks he is taking are huge.

Protesters Push Arab Militaries Off Their Pedestal
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, March 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A decade of anti-government protests in the Arab world have thrown popular trust in the military into the garbage bin and undermined the military’s position as one of the most trusted institutions.
Continue to full article ->

Israel tries (again) to form a government 

Political horse-trading begins in earnest in the next few days as Israelis try once again to cobble together a government and avoid a fourth election in a row. President Reuven Rivlin is expected to open talks with party leaders as early as Sunday on who should get the first shot at trying to assemble a ruling coalition after two previous failed attempts. The central election committee has until Tuesday to submit final election results, after which talks begin in earnest.
With Benjamin Netanyahu’s alliance of right-wing and religious parties winning 58 Knesset seats in Monday’s election – three short of an outright majority – the prime minister is the favorite. Netanyahu has already started talks with his allies to ensure that he is the nominee. Talks this time are complicated by Netanyahu’s indictment on corruption charges. His trial is scheduled to begin March 17, which is also the deadline for Rivlin to assign the task of forming a government to one of the candidates. Netanyahu’s chief rival, Benny Gantz, refuses to back a unity government led by Netanyahu and is pushing legislation to bar an indicted politician from serving as head of government. The bill’s unexpected endorsement by Avigdor Liberman, the head of the nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party, has drastically increased the bill’s chances.

But Gantz faces his own set of obstacles. His Blue and White party came in second behind Netanyahu’s Likud, which it had bested in the previous elections in September. Israel’s alliance of major Arab parties, the Arab Joint List, has said it won’t endorse Gantz unless he stands against annexation of the Jordan Valley and reverses course on his refusal to include the Arab alliance in his coalition. Liberman for his part insists he will not sit in a government that is either headed by Netanyahu or backed by the Arab Joint List.

Israel's election committee has published the results of Monday's election showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc with 58 seats — three short of the parliamentary majority needed to form a government.
Why it matters: Worse still for Netanyahu, particularly in the wake of what looked like a remarkable victory, a majority might now be uniting behind an effort to effectively end his political career.
Breaking it down: Netanyahu's Likud Party won the most seats in Monday's election, with 36. Allied right-wing parties won an additional 22.

• The Blue and White party, led by Netanyahu's centrist rival Benny Gantz, won 33 seats. The liberal Labor Party won 7.
• The Joint List of predominantly Arab parties had its best-ever showing, winning 15 seats.
• A nationalist party led by former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman won 7.

The big picture: Israeli politics have been deadlocked for a year, with Netanyahu and Gantz both failing to form majority governments after two previous elections.
Driving the news: This time could be different. Lieberman now says he will recommend Gantz to form the next government.

• If the Joint List does the same, that will put 62 seats behind Gantz — at least temporarily — and make it likely that President Reuven Rivlin will offer him a mandate to form a government.
• Crucially, Gantz would control the parliamentary agenda during that process.

Between the lines: That could leave Netanyahu powerless to stop a bill that would prevent anyone under criminal indictment from forming a government.

• His corruption trial begins March 17.

Read the full story

A Shia 'Awakening'?
by Nibras Kazimi via The Caravan
The proponents of America’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran have argued that the four-month-long anti-status quo protests that have wracked Iraq, Lebanon and Iran are transnational in character and seek to limit or end the influence of Iran’s current leadership both regionally and internally. 
​
The Shia Vs. The "Shia Crescent"
by Hanin Ghaddar via The Caravan
On February 15, 2020, Hezbollah organized a ceremony to unveil a statue of Qassem Soleimani in the Lebanese town of Maroun al-Ras, roughly half a mile from the border with Israel. The statue shows Soleimani with his arm stretched out in front of him, pointing toward Israel. 

The 100th Anniversary of the Battle of Tel Hai… and the Election Results
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, March 5, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: At the hundredth anniversary of the Battle of Tel Hai (which occurred on March 1, 1920), it is instructive to recall the heated debate that preceded it among the Yishuv leadership concerning the question of abandoning the site. This debate sheds light on the decline of the Zionist left in general and the results of the latest Israeli elections in particular.
Continue to full article ->

JUDITH MILLER
Bibi’s Next Act
Benjamin Netanyahu is poised to extend his reign as Israel's longest-serving prime minister.

Israel's New Diplomatic Moment by Jonathan Spyer
The Wall Street Journal
March 3, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60527/israel-new-diplomatic-moment

The Mind Is A Map-Maker
by Charles Hill via The Caravan
A map of the Middle East after the World War I collapse of the Ottoman Empire and Caliphate shows no state boundaries, only lines of control by European powers over the territories vacated by “The Sublime Porte” -- the Islamic hegemon in Istanbul.

Israel vs. Hezbollah: The Third Lebanon War
By Dr. Ehud Eilam, March 9, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Ever since the 2006 war, Israel has preferred to contain Hezbollah rather than fight it directly. So determined was Israel to avoid going to war with the terrorist group that it tolerated its significant military buildup. Since 2012, however, the IAF has carried out hundreds of sorties inside Syria aimed at stopping the delivery of advanced weapons to Hezbollah. Israel can continue to delay the arming of Hezbollah, but it has already become quite strong, and a war could occur even if neither side wants it.
Continue to full article ->

​Why Otzmah Yehudit flamed out in Israeli elections
 The decline in support for Otzmah Yehudit, which once again failed to pass the vote threshold to enter the Knesset, was especially notable in the settlements.

​Does Jewish-Arab partnership to form government stand a chance in Israel?
 The Likud is continuing its campaign of incitement against Arab party representatives to head off their helping form a minority government led by Blue and White.

UAE shows path for peaceful nuclear development
Fuel assemblies have been loaded into the first of four UAE nuclear power plants following the country's yearslong effort to develop major national and international support for nuclear energy.

Pakistan fears Afghan peace failure could bring violence its way

Game of power politics far from over in Pakistan
Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman, the leader of Pakistan’s Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam Fazal, has failed to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan despite being backed by a faction within the military establishment. But in doing so he has strengthened the hands of the main opposition parties Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and Pakistan Peoples Party, reports Imad Zafar.

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/03/taliban-religious-decree-calls-for-its-emir-to-rule-islamic-government-in-afghanistan.php

How Can Negotiations Bring Wars to an End? by Patrick S. Roberts and Ariel I. Ahram

 Al Jazeera NPR

Analysis: Taliban leader declares victory after U.S. agrees to withdrawal deal

U.S. military perplexed by Taliban living up to letter of agreement

For peace in Afghanistan, Pakistan is the key
The chasm between illusion and reality in politics remains perennial. Wars seldom end according to the script of peace agreements. The fall of Saigon in April, 1975, ending the Vietnam War, with defeated Americans hastily retreating in helicopters from the rooftop of their embassy, was not anticipated in the Paris Peace Accords of January 1973 that were painstakingly negotiated by Henry Kissinger and North Vietnamese politburo member Le Duc Tho. Read Mor

How Can Negotiations Bring Wars to an End?
By Patrick S. Roberts & Ariel I. Ahram, War on the Rocks: “The peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban raises a lot of questions. The most important question is this — what took so long?"

The U.S. Wants Peace. The Taliban Wants an Emirate.
By Anchal Vohra, Foreign Policy: "At the pyramid-shaped seaside luxury hotel in Doha where the United States and the Taliban signed their long-awaited agreement, the 100 or so black turbans in attendance occasionally fluttered in the wind. The bearded Taliban leaders nonetheless had cheerful looks on their faces. For them, the Americans' agreement to leave Afghanistan, even without any commitment to a cease-fire, was a declaration of victory for their side."

Breaking: CNN's Barbara Starr tweeting this morning: "Two U.S. service members were killed by enemy forces while advising and accompanying Iraqi Security Forces during a mission to eliminate an ISIS terrorist stronghold in a mountainous area of north central Iraq" on Mar 8.Names w/held pending family notification. Twitter

Afghanistan Ready to Attack Taliban if Violence Continues.  Afghanistan’s minister of defense on Sunday announced that, if the Taliban does not cease attacks by the end of the week, they would switch from “defense mode” to attacking the militant group.  “Afghan forces will remain in defense mode until the end of this week under the guidance of President Ashraf Ghani because of the peace agreement, but if the Taliban do not stop their attacks by the end of the week, our troops will target the enemy everywhere,” the minister stated.  The Taliban announced earlier this month that they were resuming attacks on Afghan forces.  Reuters  U.S. and World News Report

Last week, the United States and Taliban signed an agreement to end violence in Afghanistan. Even though violence in Afghanistan did not come to a halt, the agreement follows the same model as last fall’s abandonment of the Syrian Kurds. In a Washington Examiner op-ed, Michael Rubin notes that as Trump’s first term comes to a close, there is one consistency to his foreign policy vision: US allies do not matter. Ending “endless wars” may seem like a compelling, populist slogan, but the agreement signed in Doha no more ends the Afghanistan war than President Trump’s flurry of tweets last autumn ended the Syrian conflict. Read it here.

Mehdi Khalaji writes: Yet even if the regime founders, the damage it has done to Iranian society leaves little hope for a smooth, speedy transition to a democratic, relatively U.S.-friendly state in the near term. […]In all likelihood, then, only a small subset of actors would be willing and able to fill the vacuum that follows the regime’s ultimate collapse—namely, existing factions that already hold the keys to Iran’s military arsenal and prisons. Such a replacement government would hardly choose to denounce the police state from which it was birthed, nor the defiant anti-Western animosity that has been Khamenei’s calling card. – Washington Institute ​

Neville Teller writes: Three basic factors underlie Turkey’s stance in the confused military situation in northwest Syria. The first is that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a Sunni Muslim while Syria’s President Bashar Assad adheres to the Shia branch of Islam. […]This is why Erdogan has been supporting Syria’s anti-government forces, and explains how the opposition have recently brought Assad’s apparently inexorable advance into Idlib Province to a shuddering halt. – Jerusalem Post

Shahla Al-Kli writes: Iraq is likely to remain challenged throughout much of 2020 by a crisis pitting a flagging political establishment against a nascent popular movement. […]Over the next few years, Iraq’s traditional leadership will likely go into “survival mode,” guarding the status quo or making ineffective, incremental changes until the popular protest movement develops more mature leadership and political conduct. Once that happens, the changes will no longer be gradual, but swift and radical. – Middle East Institute ​

Tunisians protest lack of jobs amid COVID-19 pandemic 
Hundreds of Tunisians took to the streets across the country on Thursday demanding jobs amid worsening economic conditions due to the virus-induced lockdown measures. Tunisia’s successive governments following the 2011 uprising have failed to solve the high inflation and rising unemployment rates, currently standing at 15.3%. The protests are the first since Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh’s government was sworn in February, ending months of political paralysis.
Read More  
reuters.com

Tunisian government wins key confidence vote 
Tunisia’s parliament today granted a vote of confidence for a new coalition government headed by Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh, ending months of political paralysis. President Kais Saied had threatened to dissolve parliament and call for early elections if Fakhfakh’s proposed Cabinet lineup failed to win a confidence vote. Parliament's largest party, the moderate Islamist Ennahda, ended up voting in favor of the government despite its earlier opposition after being handed six portfolios.  Read More  
france24.com

ASIA TIMES

​The Trump plan for Afghanistan The U.S. presence provides a better return on investment than most people realize

Iran can obtain nuclear weapons far quicker than widely recognized
Andrea Stricker — Al Arabiya ​

The Classicist: Time To Leave The Middle East?
interview with Victor Davis Hanson via The Classicist
Would America be better off ignoring t

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/01/un-al-qaeda-maintains-close-ties-to-taliban-despite-talks-with-u-s.php

Read Full Article  

Escalation in Syria and Libya tests limits of Erdogan-Putin ties
The recent escalation in Libya and Syria has put on display the limits of the relationship between the Turkish and Russian presidents.
Read More  

What brought Iranian forces to Idlib front?
A number of developments, including Turkey's greater involvement in Syria and the US assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, may be driving Iran's move to get more involved in Idlib battlefield operations.

Escalation in Syria and Libya tests limits of Erdogan-Putin ties
The recent escalation in Libya and Syria has put on display the limits of the relationship between the Turkish and Russian presidents.

​Syrian mercenaries fight Turkey’s battles in Libya
 Though the Free Syrian Army denies it has sent fighters to Libya, hundreds of Syrian fighters are now in Libya after being lured by high salaries.

​Iraqi protests swell despite clash with Sadrist supporters
 When their tents were burned, Iraqi protesters replaced them with concrete structures. And when influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr withdrew his support, even more protesters turned out despite fears of a crackdown by security forces.

For Tunisia, recovery means modernizing economy
Tunisia’s new government faces the formidable task of reversing the economy's downward spiral of the post-revolutionary years with an eye toward becoming a gateway to Africa.

MEET SOLEIMANI'S SUCCESSOR

WINEP’s Mehdi Khalaji: Iranian succession and the impact of Soleimani’s death

WINEP’s Michael Knights: U.S. do’s and don’ts in Iraq

ISIS launches attacks in Africa while Pentagon shifts focus to 'great powers' Russia and China

Tunisia’s largest party rejects proposed government 
Tunisia’s moderate Islamist Ennahda party rejected on Monday a proposal to form a government that excludes other parties and said it was ready to contest new elections. The remarks risk upending a second attempt to create a coalition government since October elections in which Ennahda came in first but failed to impose its candidate for prime minister. Tunisian President Kais Saied instead named former Finance Minister Elyes Fakhfakh to the post last week. Fakhfakh has said he wants to replace recent unity coalitions with a Cabinet of parties “aligned with the values of the revolution,” including Ennahda.
Read More  
reuters.com

Tunisia names ex-finance minister as new prime minister 
Tunisian President Kais Saied named former Finance Minister Elyes Fakhfakh as prime minister on Monday in a bid to end political deadlock in the country. Fakhfakh is tasked with forming a government “as soon as possible,” according to the presidency. Tunisia’s parliament rejected Prime Minister-designate Habib Jemli's proposed government earlier this month. Tunisia’s moderate Islamist Ennahda party had nominated Jemli after coming in first in the Oct. 6 elections.
Read More  
dailymail.co.uk

WINEP’s Aaron Y. Zelin: Tunisia turns a corner against the jihadist movem

Iran’s man in Yemen and the al Houthis
 Katherine Zimmerman | AEIdeas
The Washington Post’s revelation of a second US military operation targeting an Iranian commander in Yemen the same night as the air strike that killed Qassem Soleimani has received far less attention than the spectacular Soleimani strike. But Abdul Reza Shahlai deserves some media love.

Erdoğan's 'Make-Turkey-More-Islamic' Campaign Is a Failure by Burak Bekdil
The Gatestone Institute
January 15, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60310/erdogans-make-turkey-more-islamic-campaign

​From Russia with love: Turkish and Syrian spymasters meet in Moscow
The Moscow meeting between the Turkish and Syrian intelligence chiefs could suggest that a normalization process has finally kicked off between Ankara and Damascus.

Mehdi Khalaji writes: The danger of concentrating so much power in Khamenei’s hands is obvious: what happens when he is gone? Soleimani was an unparalleled alternative authority, someone who likely gave Khamenei peace of mind that the regime could remain stable when the time for transition came around. Even authoritarian regimes benefit from having such safety valves—figures who can offer guidance during times of crisis and expect it to be followed without resorting to coercive measures. Now the prospect of succession likely seems more unnerving to Tehran, and the regime’s future less certain.  – Washington Institute  
​
Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou writes: Thus, it seems that the only real effective strategy in Iran’s “harsh revenge” campaign is to increase the human and financial costs of the U.S. presence in the Gulf. To this end, Iran will likely leverage its extensive network of sympathizers and proxies in neighboring countries and beyond to carry out attacks against U.S.-only targets. Not only would this approach be in line with the regime’s ultimate objective, it would also allow the Iranian leadership to make good on its threats incrementally, at the time and location of its choosing. – Middle East Institute

Ali Alfoneh writes: On January 20, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), appointed Brig. Gen. Mohammad Hossein-Zadeh Hejazi as deputy chief of the Qods Force following Brig. Gen. Esmail Qaani’s elevation to the top post. Who is Hejazi, and what was his background prior to his relatively recent involvement with the Qods Force? – Washington Institute ​

Alexa Santry writes: Today looks remarkably similar to that pivotal Obama moment. ISIS’s territorial caliphate is gone and al Qaeda is quiet. So we’re back to the “not worth it” arguments. But a US abandonment of the region would be catastrophic for American allies, credibility, and power. […]Looking back on US involvement in the Middle East over the past several decades, has American policy been flawed? Yes. Have US presidents been “incapable of mustering a consensus or pursuing a consistent policy” in the region? Also yes. But to argue that “few vital interests of the US continue to be at stake” is a misconception that Americans must not accept. –  American Enterprise Institute ​

Anthony H. Cordesman writes: After all, almost all current U.S. and other international peace efforts lack a clear strategy that goes beyond military victory or conflict termination. […]There is no clear effort or plan to produce a stable peace and create both a workable and lasting structure in any country’s governance, security, or economy. Looking for a hidden motive in the lack of a meaningful peace strategy for Afghanistan can easily end in discovering that a motive does not even exist. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​

Baghdad. DaqDuk: visiting Nasrallah in Lebanon. [Ali Mussa Daqduq (علي موسى دقدوق‎) is a senior Hezbollah leader and senior advisor to Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali.] DaqDuk is afraid now that he knows he’s a target; is hiding hither and yon. A slew of upper Iraqis are trying to blame ISIS or Ba'athist remnants for the rocket attack on the US embassy compound.  DaqDuq is keeping all the militia leaders & Nasrallah from killing each other.  Mohandas had primacy over Iraqi operations, but with him gone, you see sporadic attacks around Iraq.  

The Middle East is still worth it
Alexa Santry | AEIdeas

America needs the Middle East to grow
Karen E. Young | NationalReview.com
It is an unpopular view in Washington now to say that the Middle East matters, but it does. Not only does the Middle East sit in the middle of a global market that secures our global energy supply, but the region also facilitates the transit of the goods that we and other countries use to grow.

IRAN IMPOVERISHES LEBANON

The Turkish-Qatari Axis Challenges Washington
​Turkey and Qatar have become brothers in arms, pursuing joint ventures in illicit finance and promoting extremist ideologies. Washington needs to develop a multipronged response to compel Ankara and Doha to curb their malign conduct.

COULD NETANYAHU’S CORRUPTION CASE SCUPPER HIS RE-ELECTION CHANCES?By EPPC Fellow Luma Simms
The Spectator
The Israeli prime minister has shown tremendous political skill over the years. Read More

Sovereign risk: Gulf sovereign wealth funds as engines of growth and political resource
Karen E. Young | British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies

Israel: A Thriving First-World Economy in a Third-World Sea
By Frank Musmar, January 22, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel possesses assets and innovations that can solve many of the problems that plague its Arab neighbors. If peace can possibly be achieved between Israel and the Arab world, the potential for mutually beneficial practical and economic relationships is astronomical.
Continue to full article -

Beware The Fool's Gold Of Diplomacy
by Bruce Thornton via FrontPage Mag.com
Negotiation only gives the Mullahs time.

Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at FDD where he focuses on Iranian security and political issues. Behnam previously served as a research fellow and senior Iran analyst at FDD. Prior to his time at FDD, Behnam worked on non-proliferation issues at an arms control think-tank in Washington. Leveraging his subject-matter expertise and native Farsi skills, Behnam has closely tracked a wide range of Iran-related topics including: nuclear non-proliferation, ballistic missiles, sanctions, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the foreign and security policy of the Islamic Republic, and internal Iranian politics.
 
Related articles:
●        https://thehill.com/opinion/international/479076-iran-is-increasingly-using-missiles-in-its-military-operations-thats-a
●        https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/01/21/arms-embargo-on-iran-set-to-expire-in-less-than-a-year/
●        https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/lifting-the-arms-restrictions-on-iran-what-will-and-wont-change
●        https://www.ft.com/content/740a385a-3924-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4
●        https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-deploy-anti-missile-system-protect-american-troops-iraq
●        https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-israelis-iron-dome-just-cant-be-stopped-110841
●        https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Mystery-surrounds-US-report-that-anti-missile-air-defense-on-way-to-Iraq-615154

Denial of Citizenship as a Weapon of Repression in the Arab World
By Dr. Edy Cohen, January 23, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia recently announced that they were revoking the citizenship of individuals whose “sin” was a connection to Judaism and a pro-Israeli attitude. Apart from the institutional antisemitism these measures reflect, they are a blunt reminder that these are tyrannical states and regimes in which the legal system is little more than a fig leaf.
Continue to full article ->

Erdogan's Bold Plan for a New Muslim Brotherhood Regime in Libya by Con Coughlin 

Dr. Aykan Erdemir, senior director of FDD’s Turkey program, is a former member of the Turkish Parliament (2011 to 2015) who served in the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee, EU Harmonization Committee, and the Ad Hoc Parliamentary Committee on the IT Sector and the Internet. As an outspoken defender of pluralism, minority rights, and religious freedoms in the Middle East, Aykan has been at the forefront of the struggle against religious persecution, hate crimes, and hate speech in Turkey. 
Relevant articles:
·     
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-cyprus-idUSKBN1ZI0G0?taid=5e24a0730a3ab60001228917&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
·         https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/turkey-sends-forces-libya-play-natural-gas
·         https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-seeks-big-contempt-fines-194037063.html
·         https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/01/israel-turkey-greece-cyprus-benjamin-netanyahu-natural-gas.html
·         https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/01/berlin-conference-libya-turkey-clout-negotiations.htm

Joseph M. Humire is a global security expert, specializing on trans-regional threats in the Western Hemisphere. Mr. Humire provides regular briefings and lectures on international terrorism, transnational organized crime, Islamism and Iran and Hezbollah’s influence in the Americas to various entities within the U.S. national security community, as well as prominent think tanks and universities worldwide.
 Related articles:
●        https://www.timesofisrael.com/pompeo-praises-3-south-american-countries-for-declaring-hezbollah-a-terror-group/
●        https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-deas-targeting-of-hezbollahs-global-criminal-support-network
●        https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-prioritizes-fight-against-iran-backed-narcoterrorist-network-obama-neglected-dea-official
●        https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/nightmare-in-venezuela-maduros-alliance-with-hezbollah-raises-specter-of-terror-threat-analysts-say
●        https://www.wsj.com/articles/soleimanis-latin-america-terror-11578863631
●        https://www.politico.eu/article/us-ambassadors-push-eu-to-ban-hezbollah/
●        https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/hezbollah-major-architect-lebanons-government-200122143439455.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-16/libya-explains-why-turkey-has-no-friends

http://www.rawa.org/temp/runews/2016/05/07/horrific-video-shows-taliban-publicly-killing-woman-over-adultery.html#ixzz6AyQxkYaL  

France's Counterterrorism Efforts in West Africa and the Sahel with Michael Shurkin

  Is the Trump Administration trying to find an exit, or rather to change our posture in the Middle East?  It’s trying to collapse all the reasons we’ve been there for 70 years down to a smaller footprint. Those currently dependent on Middle Eastern oil are primarily China and the EU.  Why do we still have troops there? Because we don't want the oil wealth to accumulate in hands that will create a nuclear bomb; and we don't want to create a platform for the likes of Black September, or the later al Q and ISIS.
       Soleimani had one great gift: he understood the Obama Administration  . . . China takes about 40% of the oil that goes through the Strait of Hormuz.
  https://amgreatness.com/2020/01/05/what-is-the-middle-east-in-the-middle-of-anymore/

​Algeria appoints new government 
Algerian Prime Minister Abdelaziz Djerad formed his government on Thursday after being appointed Saturday by newly elected President Abdelmadjid Tebboune. Several key posts remained unchanged, however, seemingly signaling unchanged state policies. Algeria is facing its biggest political crisis in decades while it grapples with declining energy revenues. In a separate development, Algeria on Thursday released Lakhdar Bouregaa, a prominent opposition activist who was detained last June for allegedly insulting the army, along with dozens of others arrested in a crackdown on the mass protests that toppled President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.
Read More  
reuters.com
 
Tunisian president says parliament to vote on Cabinet lineup 
Tunisian President Kais Saied approved on Thursday a proposed new Cabinet lineup made up of independent members and passed it to parliament for a vote to be scheduled by Speaker Rachid Ghannouchi, leader of the moderate Islamist Ennahda party. Designated Prime Minister Habib Jemli said his government would focus on the weak economy. According to Jemli, his proposed lineup will win majority support in the deeply divided parliament that was elected about three months ago.  Read More  
reuters.com

Algerians protest new president 
Thousands of people took to the streets of Algiers on Tuesday against Algeria’s newly elected president. Former Prime Minister Abdelmadjid Tebboune won last week's presidential election with 58% of the vote despite widespread public opposition that led to a low turnout. Algeria's high court confirmed his election on Monday, paving the way for his inauguration on Thursday. Tebboune said he was ready to hold talks to “build a new Algeria.” But protesters rejected the call, with many questioning the legitimacy of elections they see as a tool for ruling elites to keep their hold on the country.
Read More  
alaraby.co.uk

REFORMING ISRAELI ELECTION SYSTEM

Trump reelection likely despite impeachment, buoying defense industry outlook
(Forbes) The share prices of the nation’s top three defense pure-plays (Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Raytheon) are all up about 50% since Trump’s inauguration, thanks to a demand environment in which military contractors don’t need to take market share in order to grow revenues and returns.

Blue and White's nightmare scenario: Saar defeating Netanyahu
 The Blue and White party needs Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a rival, or else it would loose its energy.

Choice books on Israel, 2019

Trump’s Iran strategy is working. Here’s why
Saeed Ghasseminejad — Fox News
President Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran is working, despite warnings of a backlash against the U.S. for the economic sanctions he has imposed on the Islamic Republic. As protests continue in Iran, security forces may have killed over 1,000 people who are calling for an end to the country’s dictatorship, U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Brian Hook told reporters recently. The continuing protests show that the Iranian people are directing their anger at Tehran’s corrupt and oppressive regime, even though American sanctions helped push Iran into a deep recession. Read More

• The Iranian regime identified weaknesses in its internal security apparatus during the November gasoline riots.The regime staged a brutal crackdown and blocked the internet to end the anti-government protests. Regime officials seek greater control over Iran’s information space and security services in anticipation of future unrest.The internet shutdown in November sparked international and domestic criticism of the regime and hurt Iranian businesses.
• Check out detailed analysis on:
  • Regime Preparations for Future Protests
  • Iranian Escalation in Iraq
  • International Mediation Efforts

ARTHUR HERMAN:  MOSAIC 

Democratic Frontrunners Are Wrong About Aid for Israel
​Putting America’s annual $3.8 billion of military assistance to Israel on the chopping block makes for good politics. But it makes no sense for U.S. national security.

Trump’s Iran strategy is working. Here’s why

Saudi Arabia and Israel: Who Needs Whom?
By Frank Musmar, December 12, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Extreme instability and mistrust are heightening tensions in the Persian Gulf, especially between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. America’s appetite for military engagement has waned after nearly two decades of war and the region lacks any form of collective security framework, leaving a considerable security vacuum. The Gulf states’ overtures to Israel are part of an effort to salvage America’s security commitment to the area while shoring up a relationship that can mitigate Tehran’s rising influence.
Continue to full article ->

Iran fills the Vacuum Created by Trump's Withdrawal by Con Coughlin  •

Brothers in Arms
Aykan Erdemir and Varsha Koduvayur — FDD Report
On June 5, 2017, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) severed diplomatic ties with Qatar, enacting a land, sea, and air blockade. Qatar’s neighbors charged the country with supporting terrorists, collaborating with Iran, and sowing the seeds of chaos around the Middle East. The sudden move closed Qatar’s only road link to foreign markets, through which it received nearly 40 percent of its food requirements. Qatari residents panicked, picking clean supermarket shelves. But the panic subsided less than 48 hours later, as Turkey began sending cargo planes with food and other goods. Read Mor

​Netanyahu’s plan for winning an outright majority in the Knesset
If he wants his right-wing ultra-Orthodox bloc to win 61 seats so he can form an immunity coalition, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will need Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked to run as part of the New Right list and pass the electoral threshold.

​The ultra-Orthodox dilemma on slamming Liberman
 Ultra-Orthodox politicians fear that any attacks against Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman would actually reinforce him within secular electorate.

​Netanyahu’s relations with Likud members: The ultimate test
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has nurtured his relationship with Likud members for more than three decades. Now he's not sure that they will continue to follow him.

Iraq's Ninevah province turns back on Shiite forces
The Ninevah provincial council has voted to replace a governor who was close to Iran-backed forces.

Who is responsible for the new wave of killings in Aden?
It's hard to determine which side or sides are behind the latest wave of killings as a new round of military escalation looms in Yemen’s south, which has seen skirmishes in Abyan province between the two partners of the Saudi-led coalition.

Afghanistan is not Vietnam
 Frederick W. Kagan | AEIdeas
 Afghanistan isn’t Vietnam. It isn’t even Iraq. George W. Bush did not lie America into this war. The “revelations” in The Washington Post are only new to people who have forgotten front-page news from a few years ago

WHY ITS OVER FOR KHAN

US-India declaration has a Sino subtext
(The Sunday Guardian) Mutual concern regarding multi-faceted authoritarian challenge posed by Beijing is manifest throughout it.

Flight Risk
By Paul Morris, Strategy Bridge: "Airpower and Afghanistan have been linked intrinsically since before the nation became independent from British control in 1921."

Musharraf Sentenced to Death in Absentia for Treason with Sameer Lalwani

THE STATUS QUO IS WHAT PAKISTANI ELITES DEFEND

THE PAKISTANI 1972 CONSTITUTION STILL MATTERS

BROOKINGS

CRUX OF PAKISTANI IDENTITY:  CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS

ASIA TIMES

PAKISTAN:  ON PATH TO SELF DESTRUCT

THE MENTAL SLAVERY THAT IS PAKISTAN

Analysis: How the US arrived at this critical crossroads in Afghanistan
The decades of mistakes and deceit has led us to the brink of a major foreign policy failure. A peace deal will absolve the Taliban for its decades of steadfast alliance with al Qaeda.

​The Mullahs' Losing Game  by Amir Taheri  •

​MIDDLE EAST:
U.S. Officials: Iran Is Secretly Moving Missiles Into Iraq
By Seth J. Frantzman, The Jerusalem Post: “Iraq is suffering from protests, ISIS threats and the need to find a new prime minister after Adel Abdul Mahdi resigned earlier this week, and Iran wants to exploit the power vacuum in Iraq."

ASIA TIMES

​As protests in Iran become more frequent, Iran's top leaders and security forces fear that popular unrest threatens the future of the Islamic Republic. In a new National Interest op-ed, Michael Rubin analyzes the protests of 1999, 2001, 2009, and 2017 and concludes that a regime crackdown may lead to a civil war. The result? A military dictatorship that eliminates the enforcement of Islamic law. Continue here.

As anti-government protests in Iran escalate, AEI’s Danielle Pletka took to Twitter to ask colleagues and close observers whether the regime is at risk. Experts provided their feedback, detailing events on the ground, the nature of Iran’s police state, the risks a collapsing economy poses to the system of the Islamic Republic, and the stakes for the United States and, ultimately, for the people of Iran. View the responses here.

Two months after the US abandoned its allies in Syria, Paul Wolfowitz in The New York Times reflected on alternative ways to limit American involvement in the still-critical region of the Middle East. Wolfowitz discusses the success of the Gulf War, in which America's mission to protect the Kurds was a model for low-cost and low-risk intervention, as a prototype for President Donald Trump's future operations in Syria. Finish here.

 The second battle of Fallujah: 15 years later
(Marine Corps Times) The dust and grime were finally starting to settle as the sun set in Iraq.
 

Netanyahu’s rival accelerates campaign for party leadership
Gideon Saar wants to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: He’s more hawkish than Netanyahu; he campaigns for a new status quo with the ultra-Orthodox; and he stresses the importance of engaging Israel’s Arab citizens in dialogue.

​Israeli opposition leader rejects defense pact with US 
The leader of Israel's main opposition Blue and White party on Monday opposed the prospect of a mutual defense pact with the United States, warning it would endanger the Israeli army's freedom of action and break with decades of defense policy. “Blue and White under my leadership will not support an international agreement that will limit Israel’s actions and the IDF’s [Israel Defense Forces] ability to protect the country from the threats it faces,” Benny Gantz tweeted. The remarks come after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he briefly broached the subject with US President Donald Trump ahead of the September elections.
Read More  
timesofisrael.com

How Palestinian Leaders Sabotage Palestinians' Interests by Khaled Abu Toameh  •  

Israel Will Only Attain Peace through Victory by Nave Dromi
JNS
November 24, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59971/israel-will-only-attain-peace-through-victory

Liberman, Lapid miscalculate about Likud rebellion
Both Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman and Blue and White co-leader Yair Lapid mistakenly assumed that some Likud members would break ranks and join a Gantz-led unity coalition.

Israel Comes Down With the American Disease
Editorial of The New York Sun | November 23, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/israel-comes-down-with-the-american-disease/90914/

Netanyahu at war with legal system
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might be standing now with his back against the wall, but he still succeeds in keeping his supporters on his side.

Avigdor Liberman drives Israeli politics crazy
Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman had promised that he would not accept any other solution than a "liberal unity government," and so far, he has kept every last letter of that promise, even if driving all politicians crazy.

Why Liberman ends alliance with ultra-Orthodox
After he prevented the formation of a right, ultra-Orthodox government following the April and September elections, Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman has sharpened his statements toward the ultra-Orthodox.

Caliph Incognito: The Ridicule Of Abu Ibrahim Al-Hashimi
by Cole Bunzel via Jihadica
The last week of October 2019 was an eventful one in the history of the Islamic State. On October 25, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, its leader and caliph, blew himself up during a U.S. special forces raid on his compound in Idlib Province, Syria. The next day, official spokesman Abu al-Hasan al-Muhajir, a potential successor to al-Baghdadi, was killed in a U.S. airstrike in nearby Aleppo Province. On October 31, the Islamic State confirmed the fatalities in an audio statement read by al-Muhajir’s replacement, Abu Hamza al-Qurashi, who went on to announce the appointment of a certain Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi as the new “commander of the believers and caliph of the Muslims.” The adjective Qurashi in their names denotes descent from the Prophet Muhammad’s tribe of Quraysh, one of the traditional qualifications of being caliph.

The Road to an Iranian Attack on Israel
By Prof. Eytan Gilboa, November 15, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israeli political and military leaders have warned against the possibility of a major military confrontation with Iran, which wants to deter Israel from disrupting its attempts to build military bases in Syria and Iraq and to construct factories in which Hezbollah can convert its huge arsenal of rockets into accurate missiles. This threat is more acute in light of the American failure to respond to recent Iranian provocations in the Gulf. Israel should adopt an aggressive new strategic approach to meet this threat, in coordination with the US and in consultation with Russia.
Continue to full article ->

Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD; in re:  Taliban overruns district HQ in Zabul. Eleven districts in the province, three have come under Taliban control since July. Grinding down the Afghan forces. One of the biggest problems in the entire war is that no one’s telling us why we’re there. No explanation that we have an enemy committed to ending the Western way of life, and it starts in a [region like this]. Successor to al-Baghadi, the Emir of the Faithful (Amir al-Muminin):  Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi. They still have a network and a robust media operation. “That both the group’s emir and spokesman have adopted al-Qurayshi in their jihadist names is significant, because it means they are claiming descent from the tribe of the Prophet Muhammad.” ​

The al Qaeda component in Afghanistan: remains a vital network for Taliban. Al Q provides expertise, training, and support; Talban give al Q safe haven, freedom of movement. As one succeeds in operations, so does the other.  Al Qaeda will stay there irrespective of what the US does.  There are thousands and thousands of al Q fighters n Afghanistan, and not leaving. A Saudi in Syria connected to al Q network put out a vid blaming al-Baghdadi for errors.  Al Q helped birth ISIS in the first place. A key issue: al Q does not advertise what it’s doing in Afghanistan, stays under the Taliban banner, whereas ISIS advertises every little thing it does.

https://www.ft.com/content/3463589e-ffc7-11e9-b7bc-f3fa4e77dd47
●        https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/why-iran-wants-the-lebanon-and-iraq-uprisings-to-fade/
●        https://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/293535/the-revolt-against-iran
●        https://www.timesofisrael.com/yemens-government-separatists-sign-power-sharing-deal-to-stop-infighting
●        https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/riyadh-agreement-delivers-political-gains-in-yemen-but-implementation-less
●        https://gulfnews.com/world/gulf/yemen/massive-plaudits-greet-yemen-deal-uae-us-kuwait-un-arab-league-hail-riyadh-agreement-1.67632206

  https://palwatch.org/page/16701
●        https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/israel/2019/november/israeli-watchdog-group-says-billions-in-aid-donated-to-palestinians-is-missing-given-to-terrorists
●        http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/268555
●        https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinian-elections-are-looking-likely-and-may-be-spectacularly-bad-for-abbas/
​