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centcom & The long war

PAKISTAN, TURKEY, TUNISIA, EGYPT AND ISRAEL:  CURRENCIES & CONFLICTS

8/29/2022

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Imran Khan is wrong about building large dams to prevent flooding. Dams like Bhasha are for generating electricity & storing water for irrigation. They compound the problem. Please read this EU paper BEST PRACTICES
ON FLOOD PREVENTION https://t.co/OA1X3p9hEh

— Yousuf Nazar (@YousufNazar) August 28, 2022
​Biden’s Iran Nuclear Deal Sets the Stage for a Real "Forever War"
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner
Joe Biden may believe he is furthering diplomacy, but by convincing Tehran that it can act without consequence, he is setting the stage for a real “forever war” across the region.
THE FRIDAY TIMES

Nothing can be truer than the fact that all Pakistan’s problems -- social, political, legal, or economic -- can only be solved if we follow the constitution, and make an example out of those who refuse to do so @tft_ https://t.co/yNSAwepK88

— The Friday Times (@TFT_) August 29, 2022
​Turkey’s 'covert' interest payments on course to exceed regular ones
​Turkey cuts interest rates as Erdogan continues to defy economic wisdom
​Turkey grapples with policy change on Syria
​Tunisian police unions clash with president's plan to unify security forces
​Israel raises interest rates
​New Trend Report: How the global food crisis will impact the Middle East
​Arab Israeli coalition could split again as election approaches
​Egypt's Central Bank governor resigns amid economic crisis
​Tourism up 128% in Turkey with travelers from Germany, Russia
​US airstrikes target bunkers used by Iran-linked militias in Syria
​Egypt’s foreign reserves drop 19% due to economic crisis caused by Russia-Ukraine war
​Iran's FM seeks Africa ties to boost sanctions-hit economy 
​Saudi Arabia to invest $1 billion in Pakistan, following UAE and Qatar
​On visit to Algeria, France’s Macron advances post-colonial reconciliation
​Egypt rethinks water strategy, starting with new irrigation minister
The End of Two Illusions: Islam after the West  by Hamid Dabashi
Oakland: University of California Press, 2022. 333 pp. $29.95.
https://www.meforum.org/63280/the-end-of-two-illusions-islam-after-the-west
Muslims and the Making of Modern Europe by Emily Greble
New York: Oxford University Press, 2021. 354 pp. $35.
https://www.meforum.org/63285/muslims-and-the-making-of-modern-europe
The Ottoman World: A Cultural History Reader, 1450-1700 Edited by Hakan T. Karateke and Helga Anetshofer. Oakland: University of California Press, 2021. 379 pp. $150 ($39.95, paper).
https://www.meforum.org/63287/the-ottoman-world-a-cultural-history-reader
The Politics of Persecution: Middle Eastern Christians in an Age of Empire by Mitri Raheb
Waco, Tex.: Baylor University Press, 2021. 207 pp. $24.99.
https://www.meforum.org/63289/the-politics-of-persecution-middle-eastern-christians
Revolutionary Life: The Everyday of the Arab Spring by Asef Bayat
Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2021. 336 pp. $35.
https://www.meforum.org/63290/revolutionary-life-the-everyday-of-the-arab-spring
Rafael Grossi Is the Last Man Standing For Nonproliferation
​
Iaqi Cleric al-Sadr to Quit Politics.  Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr announced Monday that he is withdrawing from politics and closing his offices over a political deadlock with his opponents. Al-Sadr’s supporters have been protesting in Baghdad’s government zone in support of his call to dissolve parliament to prevent his Iran-backed rivals from forming a new government. After his announcement, they stormed government headquarters, forcing a halt to cabinet sessions and sparking fears of further escalation. Al-Sadr has announced his withdrawal from politics before and then returned to political life, but current tensions may keep him permanently out. 
​ Al Jazeera New York Times Reuters
Israeli Strikes Hit Syria Military Facility.  Israeli airstrikes caused massive damage at a military facility in the city of Masyaf in western Syria on Thursday. Syrian and Russian state media reported the attack and satellite imagery confirmed damage from the strikes. Syrian opposition activists say the attack hit a missile depot used by Iran-backed fighters. War monitors say the attack killed one Syrian army captain but did not affect an underground facility used to develop missiles under the supervision of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.  Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters
 
US-Backed Syrian Kurds Move Against Islamic State.  US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces launched an operation against Islamic State sleeper cells in the northeastern al-Hol detention camp. Violence in the camp, which holds refugees and families of suspected IS fighters, has killed at least 44 people in the last year. The UN says conditions at the camp are “catastrophic” and is urging for the creation of a “safe space” to protect women and children there.  Reuters
Saint Augustine: Founding Philosopher of History
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LOOKING BACK ON THE BRITISH RAJ; ANALYSIS GLOBAL POLITICAL ECONOMY

8/15/2022

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Rushdie has faced a fatwa for decades. Here’s the history behind them
"Iran and Russia Strengthen Their Partnership," 
"Connecting the Dots from Tehran to Gaza,"
Iran's Proxy War Against Israel Caused by Biden's Weakness
Matan Tzuri writes: Most of the Gaza border community residents are satisfied with the outcome of last week’s IDF operation, and the south looks like its back to normal … for now. Some remedy for the broken soul. With post trauma, you can only learn to live with the pain, it may get less painful with time, but it will never stop hurting. – Ynet 

Hadeel Oueis writes: The Abraham Accords were an excellent opportunity to break the political taboos once considered unbreakable in the Arab world. Still, it was not alone the reason for the new trend of opposing the Islamist groups in Gaza. […]It’s demonstrated in active ways when thousands of Lebanese and Iraqis protest the influence of the Iranian-backed militias, but achieving any tangible wins against Iran’s destructive influence in the region is beyond the capability of the Arab youth, and requires a US coherent plan and active engagement in the region, which doesn’t exist so far. – Jerusalem Post

Masterful survey of the past three quarters of a century of Indian diplomacy by @ShivshankaMenon

Part of The Wire's India@75 series of articles.#AzadiKaAmritMahotsav https://t.co/75qaeEjUeM via @thewire_in

— Siddharth (@svaradarajan) August 14, 2022
Israel Victory Can Solve the Palestinian Issue
Neokohn (Budapest)
August 9, 2022
https://www.danielpipes.org/21364/israel-victory-can-solve-the-palestinian-issue

Dr Shashi Tharoor's lecture at Edinburgh University - Looking Back at the British Raj in India https://t.co/HfoldABFal

— Yousuf Nazar (@YousufNazar) August 15, 2022
Why Palestinian Islamic Jihad Rockets Kill So Many Palestinians

On the anniversary of partition, let’s consign the pitiless logic of Hindu v Muslim to the past | Pankaj Mishra and Ali Sethi https://t.co/Y5JXYF9pqO

— Sushant Singh (@SushantSin) August 14, 2022
Azhar Al-Rubaie writes: Iraqi and international calls for calm and to bring the parties to the table to resolve the current crisis have not stopped the Sadrist demonstrations inside the Green Zone, now in their second week. Saleh Mohammed al-Iraqi has called for the demonstrations to continue, saying they are “very important for achieving the demands.” Meanwhile, the Iraqi people must continue to wait for the formation of the Iraqi government, after their interests have been continually obstructed by political deadlock and paralysis. – Washington Institute
Tunisia’s government and both its main labour and commerce unions agreed on Friday to start talks on Monday over economic reforms required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a rescue programme. – Reuters ​
Josh Rogin writes: Fabricating more semiconductors here at home is long overdue and will have many benefits. But it doesn’t get us far in dealing with the broader economic threat from Beijing. China’s predatory investing, unfair trade practices and technological expansion are increasing. The vital effort to protect our economic and national security from China’s aggression must continue, and both parties must join the fight. – Washington Post
Edward Lucas writes: This is no reason for complacency. China’s successes may be flimsy, but they still reflect gaps created by Western failure. The stuttering pace of EU enlargement in the Western Balkans, timidity in confronting the headstrong Hungarian leadership, failure to show solidarity with Lithuania over Taiwan, and the neglect of Chinese-language teaching in CEE universities were not the result of Chinese pressure. But they created conditions which the CCP could, and did, exploit. The Chinese leadership may be on the back foot now. But it thinks long term. And we, mostly, do not. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Daniel F. Runde writes: For its part, Pakistan should recommit to structural reform of the Pakistani economy, addressing longstanding issues of revenue collection and attractiveness for foreign investment. It can build on the “geoeconomics” initiative of the previous administration to make Pakistan live up to its considerable economic potential. The United States and Pakistan should repair, and restore our broken relationship, dispel misconceptions and take a long view seeking stronger ties based on economics and other non-security issues. – The Hill
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TUNISIA'S NEW FALTERING POLITICAL ORDER AFTER THE ARAB SPRING

7/31/2022

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U.S. INSTITUTE PEACE
Tunisians vote to expand president’s powers
AL MONITOR COVERS TUNISIA'S NEW CONSTITUTION
​Most Tunisians sit out referendum
​Here's how the latest US rate hike will impact Egypt's economy
​Fourth Turkish drilling ship begins energy exploration in Mediterranean
HOOVER DIGEST 2022
​Russia offers Erdogan economic lifeline
Muqtada al-Sadr uses street pressure to set political conditions for his rivals
 Influential Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr vowed that new elections would be held as his followers flocked to a mass prayer in the occupied parts of Baghdad’s Green Zone after 10 months of political deadlock.
Egypt’s Ministry of Antiquities recently announced the discovery of the sarcophagus of Wahipra Merinit, who was the “commander of foreign soldiers” during the late 26th dynasty. The discovery is revealing never before known facts about the period when the Egyptian army began to rely on mercenary soldiers from the Greeks and the Mediterranean islands.

Pity that the army chief of nuclear power could get in touch only with a junior US official, not NSA Jake Sullivan or CJCS Mark Milley. This, indirectly, exposes the fake conspiracy theory of Imran Khan. As I have stated repeatedly, Pakistan is not that important globally.

— Yousuf Nazar (@YousufNazar) July 30, 2022
U.S. DEFENSE FORCE NOT BUDGETED SERIOUSLY 

China imports much of its protein from US/allies (150 million metric tonnes/annum of meat, soy, not easily smuggled) It can reduce fuel use + increase fuel imports from Ru/Kazakh .But today's Chinese would starve on a Mao diet & its vast rice stocks will not do. Empty threats https://t.co/oozfxTniQZ

— Edward N Luttwak (@ELuttwak) July 30, 2022
The Fed Needs Fiscal Help
The Ecological Origins of Economic and Political Systems
The Roots of Black Economic Progress
Iran's Satellite Program Is a Growing Threat  by Seth J. Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
July 25, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63409/iran-satellite-program-is-a-growing-threat
Getting Ready for a Long War with China
July 30, 2022In his latest report, Hal Brands envisions the dynamics of a potential conflict with Communist China. Not only will that confrontation pose greater risks of conventional and nuclear escalation, he finds, but it is also unlikely to be short or geographically limited to flash points like the Taiwan Strait. With these challenges in mind, he proposes that American strategists must consider six crucial priorities: "endurance, resilience, coercion, termination, exploitation, and continuation."
Is China Shrinking?
The Pentagon Gets the Better Part of a Trillion Dollars a Year. Why Isn't That Enough?

An increasingly brittle force due to scarcity in the defense budget that builds up and calcifies over time b/c of policymakers’ inability to tackle third rails & make truly hard choices (& cutting procurement is the opposite of “painful trade off”) —>https://t.co/rCm0n5WQVE https://t.co/jmycmuHVTs

— Mackenzie Eaglen (@MEaglen) July 26, 2022
Russian company begins construction at Egypt’s first nuclear power plant
Russia's state-owned atomic energy company, Rosatom, and the Egyptian Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy have begun work at the Dabaa nuclear power plant, Egypt’s first.
Fragments of Israeli rightwing parties gamble on merging ahead of elections
 The broken Yamina party and the two-member Derech Eretz party are hoping that their merger will get them into the next Knesset.
Tehran, the Day After
​What might happen in Iran if America or Israel bombed the nuclear sites?
The Next Salafi-Jihadi Wave: Capabilities, Resources, and Opportunity 
​| Emily Estelle | May 16, 2022.
Algeria Leads Campaign to Rehabilitate Assad Regime
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THE MULLAH'S FIGHT ON

7/27/2022

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TEAM BIDEN: WHAT DO THE SAUDI'S WANT.

7/14/2022

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KHAN TAKES PUNJAB, THE FRIDAY TIMES
Dejection and Despair
Will PML-N Survive The Challenge?
Dusted and Done?
What next?
Miltablishment “Neutrality”?
Desperate Khan
It’s All About The Intra-Elite Conflict – But What For?

"General Bajwa simply could not tell the officers and cadres that the potion they had been consistently fed is poison. The groundswell support that Khan enjoys within the army has made him virtually untouchable; against whom the top brass could not retaliate', writes @mazdaki https://t.co/itWff0d7cK

— Yousuf Nazar (@YousufNazar) July 21, 2022
MELANIE PHILLIPS:  BITTING THE BULLET
ARABS IN ISRAELI POLITICS, GONE
THE CASE AGAINST BIBI
​THE CAUSES OF INFLATION
​THE ASSASSINS CASTLE SYRIA
Kris Osborn writes: An ability to make substantial improvements quickly through MOSA not only increases efficiency, speed of modernization, and lowers costs but also brings the critical advantage of lowering weight. Agility, speed and aerial performance are all key performance parameters impacted by weight, so optimizing operational functionality at lighter weights generates highly sought after advantages for engineers. – The National Interest
HOW BYZANTIUM SURVIVED ARAB INVASIONS
BIBI STILL LEADS
THE MULLAH'S BUILD UNDERGROUND
HOW IRAN LEADS IN IRREGULAR WARFARE
WITH BIDEN, AMERICAN'S DON'T LEAD
Salem Alketbi writes: The militias represent the main bulwark of a revolutionary regime that, despite more than three decades since the most remarkable event in modern Iranian history – the landing of Ayatollah Khomeini at Tehran airport on his return from exile in February 1979 – has failed to pacify and transition from revolution to state. Since then, the country has changed, its behavior upended. The problem with this model is that it creates illusions within itself that lead to disasters for itself and others, and our region is paying the price for this destructive ideology. – Jerusalem Post 

​Erwin van Veen and Hamidreza Azizi write: The combination of U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 and Iran playing for time in 2021-2022 at the cost of the socio-economic prospects of its own population is set to become a textbook example of how to undo two decades worth of negotiations and sanctions. It will produce the suboptimal outcomes of permanent regional tensions, a latently nuclear-capable Iran, and continued U.S. involvement in the region. There are no quick fixes to this emergent new reality. – The National Interest
Seth J, Frantzman writes:  The attacks used rockets and are apparently carried out by pro-Iran militias. One of these militias has taken a name linked to Yazidis, the minority once targeted by ISIS and which is now targeted by Turkey. However, it is assumed the militia is actually a stand-in for pro-Iranian militias such as Kataib Hezbollah. Iranian-backed militias also target US forces in the Kurdistan region. This means Turkey’s operations have wider regional implications. Turkey’s leader is meeting with Iran and Russia this week and Turkey wants to launch a new operation in Syria. Turkey claims its new operation in Syria will also target “PKK terrorists.” – Jerusalem Post
WHY BENNETT FAILED AS ISRAELI P.M.
Will new nuclear deal render Israel’s capabilities hollow?
Jacob Nagel and Mark Dubowitz — Israel Hayom
Returning to reality after the euphoria that existed during US President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia, the belligerent announcements by senior Iranian officials and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, and the convening of the Russia-Turkey-Iran conference in Tehran, require a sober assessment of the situation and the construction of a plan to preserve and increase deterrence vis-à-vis Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as the continued communication with the USA to prevent any return to the dreadful nuclear agreement from 2015.
Read more
NEW IDF OPERATIONAL DOCTRINES
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ISRAEL GOES TO ELECTIONS AGAIN; KILLING OFF IRAN

6/22/2022

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The 'Two-State Solution' to Destroy Israel  by Khaled Abu Toameh
WAR ON THE ROCKS PODCAST
Turkey Supports Hamas, Which Means an Alliance With Israel Isn’t Going To Happen
Israel Needs to Change Its Strategy Against Hamas
https://www.meforum.org/63344/israel-needs-to-change-its-strategy-against-hamas
The Israeli Moment
​Ultra-Orthodox instrumental in dissolution of Israel's government
Israel dissolves parliament, declares new elections in October
​Algerian government shuts down leading pro-reform group
ALGERIA'S REGIME NEEDS REFORM FAST
​Netanyahu senses opportunity in Israel's political chaos
​Israel's Arab Ra’am party rocked by decision to disperse Knesset
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TUNISIA MOVES TOWARD AUTOCRACY. . . AGAIN

6/16/2022

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Chaos has consumed Israel
Reining In the Agencies
On the last day of its term, the Supreme Court stops the Environmental Protection Agency from making policy without express congressional authorization.
The executive versus the judiciary in Tunisia
While in practice no judiciary is totally independent and immune to the influence of executive or corporate power, Saied’s recent steps do indicate a significant change in the relationship between these branches.
Read Article
​Tunisian president targets judiciary, dismisses dozens of judges
​Turkey’s growing current account gap exacerbates lira weakness
​Sadr withdrawal from Iraqi parliament challenges Shiite rivals
Defense Futures Simulator 
VIEW SIMULATOR
FUTURE OF ARMY LEADERSHIP
SOUTH ASIA, REGIONAL DYNAMICS RULE
China's development and strategic priorities have led to the most rapid military buildup the world has ever seen.
READ MORE ›
Natural law thinkers are not trapped in feudal medieval politics, and neither are Confucians slaves to a despotic past.
READ MORE ›
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PAKISTAN FAILING FAST, AGAIN....

5/4/2022

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IRAN: RISING CULT OF MAHDISM, MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE
Winter 2021/22 Issue
Pakistan’s political crisis and the imperatives of economic reform
Beyond short-term austerity measures, Pakistan’s current federal and provincial governments need to push forward essential reforms — including in agriculture, energy, and local governance — that are key to ensuring the country’s political and economic stability and long-term growth prospects.
Read article
BRIAN RIEDL
The Era of Free-Lunch Economics Is Over
Reality intrudes on the fantasy of cost- and consequence-free deficit spending.
COLIN COOKMAN BLOG ON PAKISTAN
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ISRAELI COALITION FAILING FAST; BACK TO THE FUTURE IN SUDAN

4/21/2022

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Temple Mount clashes threaten Israeli coalition
After losing his Knesset majority April 6 when legislator Idit Silman ditched the coalition, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is now confronted with the Ra’am party freezing its coalition membership over Temple Mount incidents.
Temple Mount violence puts Arab coalition party on the spot
With pictures of violence on Temple Mount flooding social media, the Islamic Ra’am party in the coalition had no other choice but to temporarily suspend its membership in the coalition.

Inflation storm worsens Turkey’s income distribution gap
Banks and big companies have benefited from Ankara’s controversial policy to keep interest rates low, while soaring inflation eats into the real income of the wage-earning masses.
A Brief History of Inflation
With rising prices comes economic instability, which may be on the horizon once again.
Ukraine war shows America could be outgunned without investing in energetics
​Energetic materials — critical chemicals that help determine the range, size, and explosive power of missiles and rockets — are in dangerously short supply for American interests, write Nadia Schadlow and Brady Helwig of the Hudson Institute.

WORLD POLITICS REVIEW 
​The absence of an off-ramp
China’s Air-Launched ‘Carrier Killer’ Missile
By Thomas Newdick, 1945: “China’s mysterious air-launched anti-ship ballistic missile just made its latest appearance.”
The New Nuclear Age
By Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr., Foreign Affairs: “How China’s Growing Nuclear Arsenal Threatens Deterrence”
Africa and Global Society:
Marginality, Conditionality and Conjecture
By Will Turner, Strategy Bridge: “Political and strategic approaches to Africa have recently been parceled into bins based on interests: Great Power Competition, China and the Belt and Road Initiative, Russia and Wagner, and Violent Extremist Organizations, to name a few."
PAKISTAN UPDATE, SHABAZ MEETS WITH NEW CABINET
Coup generals bring back party of Sudan's ousted dictator
Members of deposed dictator Omar al-Bashir's party have been appointed to high state positions and reinstated throughout the government.
Russia is trying to increase its influence in the Sahel region, trying to exploit the anti-France sentiment that is developing in the area. After consolidating its relations with the government in Mali, Russia is now wooing the new power in Burkina Faso. Following the recent coup that took place on January 24, 2022, several supporters of Lieutenant-Colonel Paul Henri Sandaogo Damiba, the country’s interim president, have already called for strengthening the cooperation with Russia and breaking the country’s partnership with France. – Middle East Media Research Institute ​
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IRAN'S NEW BREAKOUT TIME COLLAPSING FAST

2/11/2022

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Sanctioning Deterrence Failure
By Seth Cropsey, RealClearDefense: “The Economization of American Grand Strategy.” ​
US Defense Firms Could Take Hit as West Sanctions Russia ​
Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle Reuters RFE/RL Wall Street Journal  CNN
“Algeria rings in the old: Civil society under assault”
Algeria’s opposition after the Hirak: Limitations and divisions
The gradual fading out of protests in 2020 amid the surge of the pandemic was the result of both the system’s political maneuvers and the opposition’s own organizational and political weaknesses.
Read article
Autumn 2021 Issue
If New Looks could kill: Russia’s military capability in 2022
The deployment of Russian troops and equipment to areas close to Ukraine has led to much attention on Russia’s armed forces and alarm over Moscow’s intentions towards Ukraine.
READ MORE  READ MORE
An introduction to Russia's military modernisation
The 2020 edition of the IISS Strategic Dossier Russia’s Military Modernisation examines the nature and scope of the development of Moscow’s armed forces and military capabilities.
READ MORE
Perspectives on the nondelegation doctrine: A book conference with Peter Wallison and John Yoo
comprehensive guide to Russia's war against Ukraine.
What Russia’s New Reality Means for Turkey by Selim Koru
A Dysfunctional Peace: How Libya’s Fault Lines Were Redrawn by Jalel Harchaoui
Great-Power Competition Comes for Latin America by Adam Isacson
In search of a US-Indo-Pacific economic policy
Claude Barfield | East Asia Forum
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NEAR EAST FRACTURES, BEGINNING WITH ISRAEL

1/6/2022

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The Real Apartheid in the Middle East
  • Egyptian author and researcher Mohamed Mokhtar Qandil: Challenges to Taliban rule and potential impacts for the region
Amir Tibon writes: In the long run, Israel’s relationship with the United States faces a problem larger than any specific disagreement with Biden: the declining relevance of the Middle East. The region is slipping in priority for Washington and seen as a distraction from more urgent problems, from competing with China to recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. – Foreign Affairs ​
To Win, or Not to Win, That Is the Only Question  by Alex Nachumson
Arutz Sheva
January 3, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/62924/to-win-or-not-to-win
Time for PM Bennett and his cabinet to ratify, publish a national security strategy
The inherent political and economic complexities involved in crafting a defense doctrine in the coalition governance structure in Israel prevent the prime minister from simply committing such principles to paper, but it is imperative this mission is accomplished.
 Jacob Nagel | Senior Fellow
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IRAN IS GOING NUCLEAR; SUDAN & TUNISIA ERUPT AGAIN & TURKEY LOSES D.C.

10/18/2021

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Picture
New defense budget commission could be the last hope for fixing DOD spending
Biden’s Build Back Better bill could decimate the childcare landscape
Frederick M. Hess | Education Week
Many families rely on faith-based childcare centers — but those providers are in peril under the Build Back Better bill's current language.
Get used to Putin’s power plays — at least until 2024
Leon Aron | The Hill
Vladimir Putin’s main audience is internal. His brinkmanship is directly linked to what is described in Russia as “Problem 24” — namely, the fulfillment of Putin’s paramount goal to become president for life in 2024, when, at 72, he will start yet another six-year term.
Full Stor
While Massing Troops Against Ukraine,
Putin Threatens the U.S. National Command Authority
By Mark B. Schneider, RealClearDefense: “As noted Russian journalist Pavel Felgenhauer pointed out in November 2021, “President Vladimir Putin declared that if the West deploys missiles to Ukraine that could reach Moscow ‘in five to ten minutes,’ Russia is ready to counter by deploying a ‘new naval hypersonic missile, which may reach [Western] decision-makers in 5 minutes, flying at Mach 9 speed.'” 

Modern Russian Statecraft:
Neither New nor Hybrid
By Philip Wasielewski, Small Wars Journal: "The current national security elites of the Russian Federation, most having a background in the security services, are inheritors of a Soviet tradition of coercive statecraft and in many cases former practitioners of its darker aspects."

Crisis Stability as a Priority in U.S.-China Relations
By Heather Williams, the interpreter: “Arms control with China will look very different from arms control with Russia."
Swarm Talk:
Understanding Drone Typology
By Zachary Kallenborn, Modern War Institute: “In May 2021, during its conflict with Hamas, the Israel Defense Forces became the first military to use a drone swarm in combat.”
We’re Not in Kissinger’s Middle East Anymore by Abe Silberstein
    
Mobile Nuclear Power Reactors Won’t Solve the Army’s Energy Problems by Jake Hecl
Turkey Threatens New Military Offensive in Northern Syria
New Issue Of Hoover Digest Online
No end in sight for civilian-military crisis in Sudan
The head of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, called for the dissolution of the government, further escalating the tension with his civilian partners in governance.
Tunisia’s political crisis forewarns economic collapse
 Economists are sounding the alarm about a possible economic collapse in Tunisia, urging for reforms to revive the economy that had been suffering since 2011 amid political instability.
The Biden administration’s self-defeating approach to Iran and China
Against China, a better trade policy is a better foreign policy
The West shouldn’t deny the big picture on Turkey’s Erdoğan
A Sinking Ship of State Drowns Everyone
Defense policy experts Bradley Bowman, Bryan Clark, Mackenzie Eaglen, and Thomas Spoehr recently outlined their recommendations in War on the Rocks 
Sudan Protests for Military Coup.  Thousands rallied at the presidential palace in Khartoum on Saturday calling for the military to initiate a coup and overthrow the civilian government. The protests come as the military demands reforms to the coalition government which civilian leaders view as a power grab in the wake of a thwarted September coup attributed to forces still loyal to ousted President Omar al-Bashir.  BBC Reuters

Ethiopian Airstrikes Hit Tigray.  Ethiopia’s military has allegedly hit the Tigray capital region of Mekele with airstrikes, killing three people according to media reports citing local eye witnesses.  The new offensive comes amid pressure from the US and the EU to stem the violence. Associated Press Al Jazeera
Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (TTP) consolidates power in tribal areas
  • WINEP’s Simon Henderson: While Washington argues, Iran makes nuclear advances
Ezgi Yazici writes: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s failure to work effectively with the United States and its NATO allies undermines his position with Russia and enables Putin to take advantage of Turkey’s strategic vulnerabilities. Ankara’s balancing act between the United States and Russia depends on maintaining Turkey’s strategic importance and relevance for both states, leverage that Erdogan may be losing. – Institute for the Study of War 

Michael Rubin writes: The lira, Turkey’s currency, is in free fall. A decade ago, it traded at 1.83 to the US dollar. Five years ago, it hovered around three to the dollar. Last week it surpassed nine to the dollar and, on Friday, it closed at 9.27. That the Turkish lira could drop an order of magnitude might sound farfetched, but it is not for a simple reason: Turkey’s foreign reserves are missing. – 19fortyfive 
Munqith Dagher writes: However, the Iraqi state’s current military capabilities are supported by the Atabat and the Sadrist militias, and these combined forces may be enough to prevent the losing factions from aggravating tensions. Even with what seems to be a reduced willingness of Iran to support its followers in Iraq and escalate the security threats there, the government and international community alike should remain vigilant to these possibilities to prevent the alternative of being caught off-guard. – Washington Institute ​
Jennifer Cafarella and Caroline Rose write: The United States needs a more calibrated withdrawal plan in Iraq. Retaining U.S. advisors is necessary as a counterweight to Iran but is not sufficient to achieve sustainable security and governance conditions. The United States will continue to face pressure in Iraq from Iran’s proxies, who remain committed to escalating until all U.S. forces withdraw. Retreat in Iraq is fueling instability, not mitigating it. The United States must reorient on a long-term mission to stabilize Iraq based on its needs rather than continue a misguided acquiescence to Iran. – The National Interest
Zahid Shahab Ahmed and Dalbir Ahlawat write: While multilateral forums face challenges due to the existing geopolitical dynamics between India and Pakistan in the SAARC and India and China in the SCO, New Delhi and Islamabad stand to gain by bilaterally engaging on the issue of Afghanistan. Instead of turning their neighbor into a liability, they can turn Afghanistan into an asset through constructive engagement aimed at stability in the region. – The National Interest
How Does North Korea Evade Sanctions?
​The Chinese-Russian Relationship and Its Risks to U.S. Interests
​What Drives U.S. Adversaries to Use Military Forces Abroad?
Lessons from Afghanistan
​China and Pakistan See Eye to Eye on the Taliban—Almost
Russia hasn't cleared Turkish attack on strategic Syrian town
Ankara has yet to secure a go-ahead from Moscow for an anticipated assault on the Syrian town of Tell Rifaat, which is controlled by Kurdish groups.
Read More  
Drone sale to Ethiopia could jeopardize Turkey-Egypt dialogue
Turkey risks derailing normalization talks with Egypt by selling armed drones to Ethiopia, in addition to coming under international fire should Ethiopia use the drones in the conflict in Tigray.
Read More  ​
Burak Bekdil: European "Pushback Is a Must" if Turkey Unleashes Afghan Migrants
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
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THE FOG OF WAR IN A RELUCTANT WHITE HOUSE

9/1/2021

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The Evolving Geography of the U.S. Defense Industrial Base by Doug Berenson
The Taliban call the shots
War on the Rocks: Terrorism in SW Asia after Afghanistan
"Back to Pre-9/11. But It's Worse"
The French Double Standard on Fighting Terrorism
The Road to Smart Power in the Middle East
Featuring Russell Berman via PolicyEd
 In The Atlantic, Sally Satel analyzes a new study that challenges this belief. Without dismissing the seriousness of right-wing authoritarianism, Satel argues that few studies engage with left-wing authoritarianism because of a monolithic academic culture. "This political imbalance makes truth-seeking harder," she concludes, which is bad for both science and American politics.
AEI scholars also question the reigning conventional wisdom in foreign policy. Hal Brands and Michael Beckley challenge the notion that the primary source of friction between China and the United States is "the replacement of one hegemon by another" — that is, China's rise and America's decline. They attribute the tense relations between the two countries instead to a "peaking power trap" and point to historical examples to suggest that China's decline is actually what could cause the trap to spring shut.
Nuclear Armed Iran More Dangerous Than North Korea 
https://www.meforum.org/62692/ali-alfoneh-on-strategic-lessons-guiding-iran-behavior
Ali Alfoneh on the "Strategic Lessons" Guiding Iran's Behavior
Analysis: The Islamic State’s expansion into Congo’s Ituri Province
​U.S. Treasury sanctions al Qaeda facilitators in Turkey
Turkey's political realities clash with Erdogan’s 2023 dreams
To win the next election, Erdogan must change the election laws but also find more popular political allies. His AKP party's current coalition with the ultra-nationalists is becoming a liability for his goal of re-election in 2023.
Read More  
For Peace, Abbas's Long-standing Rejectionism Has to Be Defeated  by Gregg Roman
The Jerusalem Post
October 3, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/62696/for-peace-abbass-rejectionism-must-be-defeated
AfPak Takes On New Meaning with the Rise of the Taliban
 Tunisians rally in support of president  
Thousands of Tunisians took to the streets on Sunday in support of President Kais Saied, whose critics accuse him of staging a coup. Around 8,000 people gathered in the capital, while others rallied in the cities of Sfax, Sidi Bouzid, Gafsa and Monastir. The crowds appeared to have outnumbered those who gathered last week to protest against Saied, who announced in September that he will rule by decree for two months. Saied suspended parliament in July and dismissed the prime minister and a number of Cabinet officials in response to sweeping protests against the government’s failure to address the coronavirus pandemic and mounting debt. On Sunday, a Tunisian member of parliament and television presenter were arrested after criticizing Saied and calling him a traitor.  
Read More  ​
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U.S. PLAYS WEAK HAND IN FOREIGN POLICY

8/8/2021

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CHINA'S LONG TERM STRATEGY
The Taliban and al-Qaeda: What Next?
Atlantic Charter credibility crumbles; can an Indo-Pacific Charter give hope?
Who Is Directing American Policy?  by Lawrence Kadish
The Taliban Has a Military Solution for Afghanistan
Iran Mullahs Closer Than Ever to Obtaining Nuclear Weapons  by Majid Rafizadeh  
It’s Time for Biden to Leave a Bad Deal in the Past
Richard Goldberg — National Review
When Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei selected Ebrahim Raisi to be the next president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Khamenei was sending Washington a message akin to Nikita Khrushchev’s infamous 1956 pronouncement: “We will bury you.” But don’t tell that to the unflappable advocates of appeasement in Washington who insist it is always the right time for rapprochement with Iran. Read more
Israel's Bennett, Due in Washington, Likely To Be Met With More Recalcitrance Than Ever on Iran
By CAROLINE GLICK, Special to the Sun | August 20, 2021
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/israels-bennett-due-in-washington-likely-to-be/91625/
Israel’s Bennett striving for new center-right electorate
 As new prime minister in a government composed of the right, center and left, Naftali Bennett strives to create for himself a new political base.
From Maximum Pressure to Maximum Deference
​Biden’s appeasement of Iran has let the regime become more brazen
Pakistan’s Pyrrhic Victory in Afghanistan with Daniel Markey
Enabling the Fifth Column and the Relevancy of Unconventional Warfare
By Mark Grdovic, Small Wars Journal: “Although the concept of enabling resistance movements as a supporting effort to a broader military campaign is centuries old, the concept did not formally appear in U.S. military doctrine as Unconventional Warfare until 1955.” ​
How Iran is outplaying the CIA in Iraqi Kurdistan
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com
Turkey and the West: Drifting Further Apartby Burak Bekdil 
Israel's Approach to Iran: The Netanyahu Revolution
​AFGHANISTAN
What Went Wrong in Afghanistan?
By Danielle Pletka, Stephen Walt, Eliot A. Cohen, Husain Haqqani, Richard Haass, Rina Amiri, Elliot Ackerman, Rory Stewart & Carter Malkasian, The Wall Street Journal: “As America’s longest war draws to an end, sharp disagreements remain about its aims, direction and success.” ​
Pakistan’s Pyrrhic Victory in Afghanistan
By Husain Haqqani, Foreign Affairs: “Islamabad will come to regret aiding the taliban’s resurgence.” 

Does the Belt and Road Have a Future in Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan?
By Sebastien Goulard, The Diplomat: “The Taliban will welcome the hard infrastructure elements of the BRI. The “soft” components are a different story."

A Strategy for Avoiding Two-Front War
By A. Wess Mitchell, The National Interest: “The greatest risk facing the twenty-first-century United States, short of an outright nuclear attack, is a two-front war involving its strongest military rivals, China and Russia. Such a conflict would entail a scale of national effort and risk unseen in generations, effectively pitting America against the resources of nearly half of the Eurasian landmass.” ​
Egypt pledges support to Somalia, eyeing Horn of Africa influence
 Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Roble held talks in Cairo with senior Egyptian officials at a time when Egypt is attempting to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa.
Syrian jihadis hail Taliban ‘conquest’ despite their own effort to rebrand
 The Taliban's rapid takeover of Afghanistan was widely welcomed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which offered sweets in the streets of Idlib.
Flawed assumptions led to tragic outcomes in Afghanistan
With the U.S. Withdrawing From Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran May Reconsider Its Nuclear Options
  • “No, Mr President. Al-Qaeda Is Not ‘Gone’ From Afghanistan.” Thomas Joscelyn, The Dispatch
  • “Back to the Drawing Board on Iran,” Behnam Ben Taleblu and Andrea Stricker, The Dispatch
  • “Biden's catastrophe,” Bradley Bowman, Washington Examiner
  • Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan C. Crocker: Why Biden’s lack of strategic patience led to disaster

  • JPost’s Seth J. Frantzman: Turkey sees Afghanistan as lever for global agenda
  • Emily Estelle, Mason Clark, Nicholas Carl, Kita Fitzpatrick, Matthew McInnis, Trey Sprouse, Virginia Wang, and Ezgi Yazici write: The Taliban’s swift seizure of Kabul has altered key regional states’ calculus toward Afghanistan. Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey are weighing how to take advantage of the United States’ hurried withdrawal while mitigating the new terrorist threats and refugee waves from Afghanistan that will likely follow. […]The Taliban’s victory also presents an opportunity for al Qaeda and other Salafi-jihadi groups to expand their havens in Afghanistan and intensify ongoing efforts to inspire terror attacks in the West capitalizing on the 20th anniversary of the September 11th attacks. – 

    ​    Institute for The Study of War Hannah Grothusen writes: Overall, the United States’ vested interest in Taiwanese autonomy underscores the importance of a sound, sustainable plan for engagement with the island nation. Biden’s willingness to support Taiwan shows that the legacy of Trump’s policies has radically reshaped U.S. engagement. […]Going forward, Biden should carefully weigh the merits and risks of its engagement with Taiwan in order to create a sustainable balance that neither overcommits the United States nor ignores the potential benefits of a partnership. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

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ARAB SPRING DIES IN TUNISA & EGYPT

7/28/2021

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Tunisians decry coup, while president's supporters claim 'second revolution'
 On the streets of Tunis, rumors and anticipation of July 25 demonstrations have been circulating for weeks.
CRF
​https://www.nysun.com/foreign/tunisian-tragedy-arab-spring-just-died-in/91593/
Israel concerned over possible new Russian policy on Syria
 Israel is perplexed over the recent statement by Russian Rear Adm. Vadim Kulit concerning the interception in Syria of alleged Israeli missiles.
Tehran’s crimes, acts of war, and other provocation
TRACKING BIDEN ON IRAN, CHINA
​While Biden Aims For A New Nuclear Deal, Israel Must Stay Tough on Iran
Erdogan’s Provocations in Cyprus Escalate Tensions in Eastern Mediterranean
Iran’s Tricky Balancing Act in Afghanistan by Candace Rondeaux, Amir Toumaj, and Arif Ammar

The American Revolution, Naval Power, and the 21st Century by BJ Armstrong

The Defense Futures Simulator from War on the Rocks, American Enterprise Institute, and Center for Strategic & International Studies

Strategic Outpost’s Sixth Annual Summer Vacation Reading List by David Barno and Nora Bensahel    

The Problem with Biden’s Democracy Agenda by Robert Manning and Mathew Burrows
Pentagon Chief Calls for New Regional Order in Indo-Pacific
By Mike Yeo, Defense News: “The U.S. defense secretary has called on allies in the Indo-Pacific to force a new regional order, during his first visit to the area since taking up his post under the Biden administration.”
CHINA:
China Increasing Its ICBM Silos by a Factor of Ten
By Thomas Newdick, The War Zone: “A new ICBM silo field taking shape in the northwest of the country is the second to be identified in only a month.
The Pentagon Needs More Than Ships and Planes to Deter China
By Editorial Board, Bloomberg: "U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific region need to be more resilient, flexible and effective."

A U.S. Defense Budget That Makes China Smile
By Mackenzie Eaglen, 1945: ““More tooth, less tail” is a common refrain from defense leaders in search of more combat power as budgets have flatlined. No matter the topline, it seems defense continues to get less for more. Except when it comes to civilians.” 

Military Agility
By Jonathan Beall, Strategy Bridge: “. . . the key to understanding the move from peace to war must include an army’s “cognitive and mental flexibility” in that transition, which means this process is not simply a matter of material readiness, although it is not neglected.” ​
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THE RETURN OF MENACHEM BEGIN:  HOW DAVID BEN GURON'S FASCIST HAS TAKEN ISRAEL

7/9/2021

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OFFICIAL TRAILER | UPHEAVAL: THE JOURNEY OF MENACHEM BEGIN from Abramorama on Vimeo.

 Mapping the Taliban’s Offensive
Afghanistan at risk of collapse as Taliban storms the north
China’s military budget much bigger than what it reveals’
Cleo Paskal – The Sunday Guardia
The Middle East should be afraid of Iran’s Ebrahim Raisi
Alireza Nader and Saeed Ghasseminejad — Al Arabiya
Iran’s newly elected president, Ebrahim Raisi, is known for his brutal and fanatical devotion to the Islamic Republic, a history that it would serve Middle Eastern nations well to remember in future foreign policy dealings with the country. Raisi’s selection by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei as president is meant to facilitate a smooth succession and instill fear in Iranians yearning to break free from the theocracy. Read more
The Coming Sanctions Battle Over Iran’s New President
Behnam Ben Taleblu — The National Interest
Men of the cloth are no strangers to the levers of power in Iran, especially the office of the presidency. Ebrahim Raisi, the sixty-year-old mid-ranking cleric who is now president-elect, or better put, president-select, will be the first in the history of the Islamic Republic to make the lateral move from the judiciary, which he led since 2019, to the presidency. He will also be the first Iranian president under U.S. sanctions. Read more
 Middle East Diplomacy with Elliott Abrams
Tikvah's incoming chairman, Elliott Abrams, joined JNS's Jonathan Tobin to discuss the past failed efforts at a two-state solution as well as diplomacy, democracy, and the future of American Jewry. Listen Here (48 min.).

3) Rabbi Yehoshua Pfeffer on the Ultra-Orthodox and the IDF
Almost every Jewish community in Israel serves in the IDF, except one: the haredim. On this week's podcast, Tikvah's Rabbi Yehoshua Pfeffer explores the background behind his community's reluctance to serve in the Israeli army and brings us inside the debate currently unfolding within Israel's Orthodox communities about the fulfillment of civic obligation and moral duty. Listen Here (39 min.).
The War at Home: The Need for Internal Security Sector Reform in Iraqi Kurdistan
The forces and agencies of Kurdistan’s Ministry of Interior and the Kurdistan Region Security Council, collectively referred to the Kurdistan Region Interior Forces, are now the region’s main security actors, but their role as instruments of partisan rivalry and enforcers of public loyalty to the political bureaus threatens the Kurdistan Region’s stability. This report makes the case that coalition security sector reform efforts should be refocused on them. Although Peshmerga reform is necessary to improve the Kurdistan Region’s ability to combat external threats, it is equally, if not more important to start the same reform within these internal forces and agencies to achieve durable stability.
Read article
The Pakistan Factor in China’s Afghanistan Policy: Emerging Regional Faultlines amid US Withdrawal

To date, China has largely relied on Pakistan to conduct its Afghan policy. Not much bothered about the future political role of the Taliban, China fears the prospect of instability in Afghanistan after the U.S. exit. Beijing’s primary concern in a post-U.S. Afghanistan, which is likely to be run by a regime dominated by the Taliban, is that Uyghur separatists and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement might find a safe haven in the country. Although all regional countries support the idea of an inclusive political resolution to the Afghan conflict, neither China nor any other country has any appetite to lead a regional intervention to stabilize it. China has therefore responded to the announcement of the American exit from Afghanistan with a sense of disquiet. 
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Spring 2021 Issue
MODERNIZING RUSSIAN NUKES
On Wars and Changing Threats
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, July 9, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israeli society must recognize the intensity of the new threats that surround it and critically assess the conventional wisdom that the era of big threats has passed and Israel need no longer be a "mobilized nation."
Continue to full article ->
Biden's Afghanistan: The Fog of Retreat
​Editorial of The New York Sun | July 9, 2021
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/bidens-afghanistan-the-fog-of-retreat/91568/
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BIBI IS OUT: HOW ISRAEL'S STATESMAN SURVIVES; EGYPT RAISES REGIONAL PROFILE

6/14/2021

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Caroline Glick on Israel after Bibi
​Daniel Pipes on Israel after Bibi
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Israel's Victory for Democracy
Editorial of The New York Sun | June 13, 2021
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/israels-victory-for-democracy/91539/
The first thing that needs to be said in respect of Israel's decision to bring in Naftali Bennett as prime minister is that it marks a victory for the democracy of the Jewish state. That's not because it brought an end, at least for now, to the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud Party, which lost by the narrowest of margins -- a single vote in a 60 to 59 vote tally in a 120 Knesset. Indeed, on many issues there might be little change.
Continue Reading
China and Iran: Join Up the Dots
The whole is much more than the sum of the parts by Gwythian Prins
Yemen, Syria and Iran’s capabilities: A look at Israel’s strategic view of key proxy conflicts in the MidEast
Iranian-backed groups tout operations in Iraq
Taliban control in Afghanistan expands significantly since 2018
Taliban has ‘surrounded’ five Afghan provincial capital
Analysis: Predicting the coming Taliban offensive
Ep. 50 — The Unknown
Egypt Is Beginning to Reassert Regional Leadership by Seth J. Frantzman
The Hill
June 7, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/62424/egypt-reasserts-regional-leadership
2021 Iranian Presidential Election Tracker
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THE ARABS & A RECKONING; BIBI IN A BIND AGAIN

3/14/2021

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Egypt's Reckoning
by Samuel Tadros via The Caravan
As a young man, Egypt’s legendary playwright, Tawfiq Al Hakim had worked as an assistant to the Attorney General in the Egyptian countryside. There he would witness firsthand the dismal state of the country’s fellahin and the grave injustices Egypt’s rural population lived under. The experience would leave a profound impact on the young author and would shape his views of Egypt’s ills and the necessity for social change that became evident in his literary works. 
 
Saudi Human Rights
by Karen Elliott House via The Caravan
If the Biden Administration lives up to its campaign promises and early governing pronouncements, human rights will play a larger role in its foreign policy than in that of the Trump Administration.  This isn’t necessarily good news.
HOW U.S. LOSES TO CHINA:  FAST
Iranian Regime, Houthis Celebrate Biden Administration's Policy
by Majid Rafizadeh 
No kingmaker – and no king following Israel’s latest election
With virtually all of the vote in and results unlikely to change, it is clear: Not only will there be no kingmaker in Israel's latest election, there will probably be no king.
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MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE JOURNAL  Winter 2020/2021 Issue
Why We Should Be Worried About Russia and China Working So Closely
​After the Alaska meeting between the U.S. and China, Russian officials quickly moved to boost China.
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BIDEN TONE DEAF TO INDIAN INTERESTS

3/7/2021

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Top Biden Economic Policy Adviser Linked to Kashmiri Extremists by J.M. Phelps
American Spectator
March 5, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/62087/top-biden-economic-policy-adviser-linked-to
Sounds Strategic: The IISS Podcast
To mark the publication of The Military Balance 2021, Meia Nouwens is joined by Fenella McGerty, Senior Fellow for Defence Economics, and Henry Boyd, Research Fellow for Defence and Military Analysis, to discuss recent developments in defence policy, military capability and defence economics.
Reposturing US defence to the Indo-Pacific
Armenia’s nuclear power plant is dangerous. Time to close it.
Rafael Bardaji on Why Europe "Will Remain Hostile to Israel" by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
March 14, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/62111/bardaji-on-why-europe-will-remain-hostile-to-israel
Negotiating with the Taliban is not the path to peace or securing American national security interests, writes Frederick Kagan.  READ MORE
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BIDEN:  ISRAEL & A NUCLEAR IRAN, THE GREAT GAME CONTINUES

2/21/2021

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Israel, US reveal cooperation on Arrow 4 ballistic missile interceptor
Netanyahu mourns Limbaugh, pushes for confrontational path over US-Iran talks
Does ‘Syrian trio’ of Russia, Iran and Turkey have a future?
Algeria: Running on fumes
Unless oil prices go way up, Algeria is in a world of hurt.
Algeria’s president dissolves parliament, pardons 60 protest figures 
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced on Thursday the dissolution of the lower house of parliament and called for early legislative elections. In an address to the nation, Tebboune also said he would carry out a government reshuffle in the coming days. The move coincides with renewed protests in Algeria to mark the second anniversary of the popular protest movement that forced longtime President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to resign. Despite his toppling, the demonstrations continued as Algerians demanded a transition to democracy and the trial of figures linked to the former regime. Authorities have since arrested and sentenced dozens connected with the protests, but in his Thursday address, Tebboune announced the pardoning of 60 people.   Read More  
reuters.com
Signs that Iran Might Be Continuing Its Nuclear Weapons Program
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, February 19, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Samples recently collected by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors at two Iranian sites showed traces of radioactivity. Tehran had not reported any nuclear activity at these sites and denied IAEA inspectors access to them until just a few months ago. The findings suggest that Iran, in violation of the JCPOA nuclear agreement it signed in July 2015, has continued to conduct activities related to nuclear military development.
Continue to full article ->
The Iran Mediation Bazaar
Turkey Ravages Cyprus
Israel Policy in the Biden Administratio
How Biden Can Build on the Abraham Accords
By Peter Berkowitz via RealClearPoliticsPeter Berkowitz writes that the Abraham Accords were forged between Israel and two Arab Gulf states, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, because all parties viewed that it was in their shared interest to counter the Islamic Republic of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Furthermore, these countries recognized extraordinary opportunities to develop commercial ties and launch educational and cultural exchanges. Berkowitz maintains that the Biden administration should expand upon its predecessor’s achievements by capitalizing on the shifting dynamics of the region and building on this diplomatic momentum in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking.
The Caspian Sea as Battleground
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, February 28, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Back in 1991, in the immediate wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Israel desk of Armenia’s foreign ministry—populated at the time by fluent Hebrew speakers—waited for a phone call that never came. The ministry was convinced that Israel, with whom Armenia shared an experience of genocide, was a natural ally. But Israel never made the call. Their shared experience could not compete with Armenia’s Turkic nemesis, Azerbaijan, with which Armenia was at war over Nagorno-Karabakh—a majority ethnic Armenian enclave on Azerbaijani territory.
“The calculation was simple,” an Israeli official said at the time. “Azerbaijan has three strategic assets that Israel is interested in: Muslims, oil, and several thousand Jews. All Armenia has to offer is at best several hundred Jews.”
Continue to full article ->
Tocqueville and Totalitarian Democracy in America
US officials would surely like Germany and Europe to rally quickly to America’s side. Hal Brands explains that, in reality, uniting the free world against a new authoritarian rival will itself be a long, hard campaign.  READ MORE
The Danger of Appeasing the Mullahs  by Majid Rafizadeh
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THE BATTLE FOR THE SOUL OF ISLAM:  ASIAN ISLAM VS. SUNNI ARAB ISLAM

1/19/2021

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The Battle for the Soul of Islam
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, January 17, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The battle for the soul of Islam pits rival Middle Eastern and Asian powers against one another: Turkey, seat of the Islamic world’s last true caliphate; Saudi Arabia, home to the faith’s holy cities; the United Arab Emirates (UAE), propagator of a militantly statist interpretation of Islam; Qatar, with its less strict version of Wahhabism and penchant for political Islam; Indonesia, promoting a humanitarian, pluralistic notion of Islam that reaches out to other faiths as well as non-Muslim center-right forces across the globe; Morocco, which uses religion as a way to position itself as the face of moderate Islam; and Shiite Iran, with its derailed revolution.
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"IDF chief of staff warns of return to Iran nuclear deal, details response to proxies," 
Joe Truzman, FDD's Long War Journal
  • JPost’s Seth J. Frantzman: Iranians tire of government waste, failed foreign policies
  • WINEP’s Michael Knights: Drones over Riyadh: Unpacking the Iran threat network’s tactics
In a January 27, 2021 article titled “Iran Continues to Test Biden’s Limits,” senior Saudi journalist ‘Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rahsed notes that Iran welcomed the Biden administration with a series of provocations – namely the December 20, 2020 rocket attack on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and with the January 23, 2021 Houthi attack on Riyadh – so as to test the patience of the U.S. and its allies and their willingness to retaliate. – Middle East Media Research Institute 
​
Victoria Coates and Len Khodorkovsky write: Driven by a revolutionary theology, the Islamic Republic’s regime has been metastasizing across the region since its founding in 1979. From funding and arming anti-Israel terrorists, to blowing up Saudi oil facilities, to pirating commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, Iran is the Middle East’s preeminent menace. Not only is it out of step with the Abraham Accords, Iran is the neighborhood’s chief purveyor of discord. – Jerusalem Post
Michael Knights writes: U.S. officials are right not to overreact to what may have been a probe of Riyadh’s airspace, and the Saudis may have their own reasons to save face and downplay the penetrations. If left unchecked, however, such probes may become bolder, especially if Tehran’s motive is to splinter the U.S.-Saudi and U.S.-Emirati relationships and coerce Washington into providing sanctions relief more quickly. The Biden administration should therefore take appropriate and measured steps in response: – Washington Institute
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran under sanctions has not been able to modernize many parts of its regular army and navy. That means relying on ships and planes that are many decades old. Sometimes Iran even uses old US Boeings, C-130s and other planes from the era of the shah. Sutton points out that Iran still has several smaller 600-ton Fateh-class submarines, but these also don’t seem to be active. Iran’s submarines are not ancient: They were built in the 1990s. However it is unclear what is wrong also with them – and how this setback may harm Iran’s capabilities. – Jerusalem Post
Isabel Ivanescu writes: Fighting between pro-Assad regime forces and local opposition elements in Dera’a Province is at its most intense since Russia brokered reconciliation agreements between the two factions in 2018. […]There has been an inflection in Russian behavior, however; Russia did not intervene to stop the first assault on the town by Iranian-backed forces and threatened to itself carry out airstrikes in the vicinity if locals refused to turn over individuals wanted by the regime. This may represent a Russian belief that Tafas, a hub of anti-Assad activity, will be less likely to capitulate than other towns in which similar events have previously transpired. – Institute for the Study of War
Mason Clark writes: The United States and its allies must prepare to confront an increasingly effective Russian military that is intent on further developing expeditionary capabilities and using them in coalition environments. Russia is still involved in and still learning from the conflict in Syria. […]The Russian military’s learning from Syria is driving Russian modernization efforts; the United States must understand this learning and adaptation to confront the Kremlin effectively. – Institute for the Study of War
Katherine Lawlor and Nicholas Carl write: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias likely conducted a kamikaze drone attack into Saudi Arabia on January 23, 2021, for the second time in recent years. This attack could indicate a significant change in how the Iranian regime imposes pressure on its adversaries around the Persian Gulf. The potential expansion of Iraqi proxies’ ability and willingness to target foreign states in ostensibly deniable ways and in coordination with other components of the Axis of Resistance would pose a growing security challenge to the US and its regional partners. – Institute for the Study of War
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Saudi Arabia has become a testing ground for how a country can create multi-layered and integrated air defense to stop the drones. […]Riyadh, a key ally of the US, may get advice on how best to continue to confront the threats. Evidence shows that it has done a good job downing drones and missiles in recent years. The question is whether the threats will grow as Tehran seeks to target US allies to put pressure on them and Washington, and to test new weapons. – Jerusalem Post
Arif Rafiq writes: In recent years, cooperation between Pakistan and Turkey has strengthened not just in the defense, diplomatic, and economic realms, but also in the cultural space, causing geopolitical ripple effects in the Himalayas, the Arabian Peninsula, and the South Caucasus. The emerging Pakistan-Turkey entente now has the buy-in of Pakistan’s leading political parties and three military services, as well as the Turkish leadership. – Middle East Institute
Rostec announced this week it has begun developing the MiG-41, a fifth-generation fighter jet set to replace Russia’s MiG-31 jets currently in service. However, amid a number of other ongoing military aerospace projects, experts are questioning whether industry has the resources to produce the aircraft by its deadline of 2030. – Defense News
​
Pro-regime spokespersons and surrogates attempted to denigrate Navalny and dismiss the demonstrations as miniscule and over-reliant upon impressionable minors, who additionally served as human shields to deter an effective police response to the demonstrators. […]Below is MEMRI’s review of the events surrounding Navalny’s arrest. – Middle East Media Research Institute 
Steve Cohen writes: The problem is not just China’s emergence as a maritime power; it is our own seemingly apathetic willingness to cede dominance at sea. Although the past two administrations have agreed that the Navy needs a minimum number of 355 ships to meet its assigned roles, we have taken too few steps to appropriate the necessary funds to expand the fleet or identify what its composition ought to be. The current plan is too small, too slow, too fearful of making more mistakes in the acquisition process. – The Hill
Mark F. Cancian writes: Great power competition has returned after a generation of absence, and the U.S. military edge over prospective opponents is eroding. Whereas the United States previously could overwhelm adversaries with sheer force, if necessary, it now needs every advantage it can get. This study analyzes how the United States might inflict surprise on its adversaries to gain a strategic advantage. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Preventing a Hegemonic Iran
Featuring H. R. McMaster via Policy EdThe United States’ conciliatory foreign policy approach to Iran has overlooked the hostile ideology that drives the regime. Understanding Iranian behavior begins with employing strategic empathy to fully understand the Iranian leadership’s ideology and its desire for hegemonic influence in the Middle East. The United States should improve defenses against the Iranian military and its terrorist proxies, disrupt Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon, and communicate with the Iranian people to expose the regime’s corruption.
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STATECRAFT FOR SOUTHWEST ASIA

1/12/2021

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What Will Happen When Khamenei Dies?
HUDSON INSTITUTE: SW ASIA
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BIDEN'S POST GROWS COMPLICATED:  IRAN, CHINA ON THE RISE

1/10/2021

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U.S. LEADERSHIP IN YEMEN:  WHY IT MATTERS
U.S. COUNTER TERROR STRATEGY:  HALTING
U.S. INDIA DEFENSE TIES GROWING:  HUDSON INSTITUTE VIDEO
Trump's Bitter Denouement
by Richard A. Epstein via Defining Ideas
His sorry ending should not conceal his administration’s real achievements.
Iran, China, Promise to be the Biggest Tests of Biden's Presidency in 2021
The Caravan: Al-Qaida And The Taliban At The Crossroads.
interview with Russell A. Berman, Cole Bunzel via The Caravan Notebook
What are jihadis saying about the Taliban peace deal and Afghan negotiations?
Three Months After the Abraham Accords, the Palestinians Have Lost the Arab Street
Erdoğan's Reckless Gambit: It's Payback Time
Implications for Israel of the Joint Terrorist Military Exercise in the Gaza Strip
By Omer Dostri, January 8, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The first joint military exercise of the Gaza terrorist organizations was a milestone for Hamas, which wishes to unite these organizations in order to strengthen its control over the Strip as well as its “ambiguity strategy” vis-à-vis Israel. The exercise has implications for Israel at both the strategic and the operational levels as it prepares for a possible conflagration in Gaza.
Continue to full article ->
CHINA'S CHALLENGES AHEAD
Into the danger zone: The coming crisis in US-China relations
Shia Militias Threaten US, Israel in Iraq  by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
December 31, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61912/shia-militias-threaten-us-israel-in-iraq
Tehran’s 20 Percent Enrichment is Designed to Extort Washington
Behnam Ben Taleblu and Andrea Stricker — Newsweek
Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.) built a reputation as a lawmaker with a low profile and a high impact. His recent passing has brought one of his signature pieces of legislation back into the spotlight. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 instituted protections to promote the stability of the national financial system. As the digital era reshapes the economy, we can honor Sen. Sarbanes’ work and legacy by ensuring that the Act continues to serve the same ends he envisioned nearly 20 years ago — promoting American prosperity through responsible corporate governance. Read more
India and Oceania: Potential and Opportunities
Cleo Paskal and Lord Fakafanua — India Foundation
JCPOA 2.0
by John R. Bolton, John Yoo via National Review
he first great conflict of Joseph Biden’s presidency could erupt on the field of national security.
Iran Unveils New Underground Missile Base. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has revealed a large underground missile base near the Persian Gulf.  The announcement was broadcast on Iran’s state TV and comes just after a recent show of force by the U.S. as two B-52 Bombers flew thru the region.  Al Jazeera Jerusalem Post
Hypersonics Illustrate Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
By Abbey Baker, Christian Contardo & Doreen Edelman, National Defense Magazine: “Hypersonics — the science behind missiles that travel in excess of Mach 5 and can quickly change trajectory mid-flight — illustrate the challenges faced by U.S. companies working on emerging technologies.” ​
BESA's Top Ten of 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: During 2020, the BESA Center consolidated its position as the globally most widely read Israeli think tank in its field, with page views growing twofold to nearly 3.5 million. Below are the ten most widely read articles published in 2020. The selections reflect strong reader interest in the COVID-19 pandemic and its origin, great-power rivalries, and Israel’s national security and relations with the Arab world.
​Hamas's Maneuvers Are Defensive - For Now
By Prof. Hillel Frisch, January 8, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Hamas, along with 11 other terrorist organizations working together under a “Joint Operations Headquarters,” recently conducted an exercise involving coordinated extensive rocket and drone launchings. Hamas said the exercise was defensive, but stressed that it remains committed to “liberating” “Palestine.” Israel’s policy of economic pacification is serving to enhance Hamas’s capabilities against it.
Continue to full article ->
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AL-QAEDA & IRAN:  THE RELATIONSHIP & THE COLLAPSE OF IRAQ; 10 YEARS AFTER THE ARAB SPRING, A LOOK AT TUNISIA; BIBI'S PERFECT STORM BREWING

12/12/2020

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Iran builds at underground nuclear facility amid US tensions
Hoover Fellows Analyze Foreign Policy Challenges For Incoming Presidential Administration
via Hoover Daily Report
The Hoover Institution hosted a virtual online series featuring fellows’ analysis of the foreign policy challenges facing the incoming presidential administration.
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran’s calculation now is that dissidents won’t operate from Iraq or Turkey, and they likely will live in fear throughout Europe. This is laying the groundwork for Tehran’s next move, which will be more military escalation in the region and outreach to further bond itself with allies in Turkey and Russia, seeking to counterbalance the US and also work with China. – Jerusalem Post
​
Firas Elias writes: These proxy groups continue to demand the removal of U.S. forces from Iraq, and both Iraqis and regional U.S. allies will likely carefully observe how Biden will navigate this point of ongoing tension. For better or for worse, it is clear that any new steps that President-Elect Biden may take in his dealings with Iran will directly impact Iraq’s internal affairs as well. The same could be said for the other Arab countries in which Iran has attempted to create a foothold. – Washington Institute
Iran's Plan to Topple Arab Leaders  by Khaled Abu Toameh 
Net Assessment: 2020 Vision with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble   
Thinking in (Napoleonic) Times: Historical Warnings for an Era of Great-Power Competition 
by Alexandra Evans
Competition with China could be short and sharp
Michael Beckley and Hal Brands | Foreign Affairs
ow President-Elect Biden Can Reinvigorate Defense Innovation
By Trae Stephens & Steve Blank, Defense News: “The world is on the cusp of a new era of warfare dominated by unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, networked weapons and sensor fusion.” 

U.S. Should Strengthen Gulf State Partners,
Vital to Stability in the Middle East
By Michael J. Connor, RealClearDefense: “Last Wednesday, the Senate voted down legislation aimed at stopping the sale of advanced offensive weapons to the United Arab Emirates. Washington can and should do more. As Iran proliferates advanced long-range weaponry and its proxies launch short-range attacks, the incoming Biden administration should also emphasize strengthening the defenses of America's partners in the Gulf.”
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Trump’s Iran Achievement
Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh — National Review
Among Donald Trump’s proudest achievements as president was his withdrawal of the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), his predecessor’s nuclear agreement with Iran. The boldest action of his presidency was his decision to kill Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force — the expeditionary, special-operations, terrorist branch of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — at the Baghdad airport. Read more
TURKEY'S GOALS IN LIBYA 
Aya Burweila on Turkey's Goals in Libya  by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
December 18, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61870/aya-burweila-on-turkey-goals-in-libya
IRAQ COLLAPSING READ MORE
GETTING CHINA POLICY RIGHT Derek Scissors testified that to actively improve American competitiveness with China requires a comprehensive strategy and costly implementation.  Staying ahead of a slipping, skittish China
  Bedfellows: Iran and Al Qaeda  by Majid Rafizadeh 
U.S. and Afghan forces target Al Qaeda in the south
​Despite the repeated targeting, killing, and capturing of Al Qaeda leaders and operatives, the Taliban maintains that the terror group does not operate in Afghanistan.
Ep. 35 – The Shadow War Inside Iran
​FDD senior fellow Behnam Ben Taleblu joins the podcast to discuss recent assassinations inside Iran and the state of the Iranian regime’s various proxy wars.
Africa File  tracking the developing situation in Ethiopia.
READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
Civil war is breaking out in Africa’s second largest country | Emily Estelle
Freedom’s Struggle In The Indo-Pacific
by Michael R. Auslin
With China increasingly dominant, nations seek their own paths between socialism and capitalism.
The last emir?: AQIM’s decline in the Sahel
Five months after the elimination of Abdel Malek Droukdel, aka Abu Musab Abdel Wadud, the leader of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), by the French army in the Malian city of Talhandak, AQIM appointed a new emir on Nov. 21. His name is Yazid Mebarek, aka Abu Ubayda Yusef al-Annabi, a 51-year-old Algerian and a jihad veteran.
Read article
Autumn 2020 Issue MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE
2020 Year in Review
Up for Debate: US Yemen policy
Now in its sixth year, the war in Yemen shows no signs of abating. The country faces what is widely considered the world's worst humanitarian crisis — a situation that has only been exacerbated by the global coronavirus pandemic. As a new administration prepares to take over in Washington, it is a natural time to assess U.S. policy toward the country. We asked 9 experts to provide their perspective and answer the following question: How should the Biden administration approach Yemen? 
View feature
Africa File 
Putting up a fight: Tunisia’s counterterrorism successes and failures
Francisco Serrano
The "Arab Spring" a Decade On
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar, December 17, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The 10 years of the so-called “Arab Spring”—the last of which is the year of COVID-19—have brought many Arab countries to the edge of the abyss. The worst may be yet to come if President-elect Joe Biden takes expected steps that would be in the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Continue to full article ->
10 years on, Tunisian emotions mixed in birthplace of Arab Spring
 Ten years after the first Arab Spring protests erupted in the central Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid, the locals are still suffering economic hardships amid a lack of government support.
Weighing the scales of violence in northwest Syria
Nick Grinstead
Netanyahu dislikes rotation deal, but also fears elections
 By Dec. 23, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must decide what scares him more: elections with Gideon Saar as contender or rotation with Defense Minister Benny Gantz.
Turkey won't back down from S-400s despite sanctions, says foreign minister
 Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Ankara will "take steps" to respond to the US sanctions unveiled this week.
Steven A. Cook writes: Yet looking back over the last decade, it is hard to fathom why anyone would venture to argue that the uprisings produced much more than sorrow. That does not mean that the uprisings were a mistake—as if such unpredictable events could even be categorized as such. Tunisians, Egyptians, Libyans, Syrians, Yemenis, Bahrainis, and others rose up in response to their bitter circumstances to demand a better future. They were mostly crushed. – Foreign Policy
​ 
Oz Katerji writes: The Arab Spring may be over, but the civilian uprisings in the Middle East have barely begun. The Middle East now finds itself in the state of flux that Karl Marx described as permanent revolution, the aspirations of its people permanently churning but never fulfilled There is no way for dictatorships to turn the clock back to 2011, and there is no desire from their populations to accept a status quo that permanently disenfranchises them. The powder is drier than it has ever been; all that is missing now is the next spark. – Foreign Policy 
Francisco Serrano writes: The frequency of these attacks highlights the dangers posed by an uncertain political environment, widespread economic problems, and regional instability. But the fact that they have become less deadly over time also seems to underline the improvements that successive governments have made to Tunisia’s security apparatus. […]In the long run, improving security will require more than just military and policing solutions.  – Middle East Institute
Israel Needs a Caucasus Strategy
By Dmitri Shufutinsky, December 16, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel must maintain its deep historic relationship with Azerbaijan, but the Jewish people also have common bonds with Armenians. Jerusalem must seek a larger role in the region to broker peace and prevent Iran and Turkey from gaining a foothold in the area.
Continue to full article ->
David Rosenberg writes: The Arab world’s problem is that it is relatively easy to oust a dictator but it’s much, much harder to change the fundamental nature of society. The Gulf states are trying to do it by spending and reforming, but the results are at best mixed. Revolutions are supposed to be catalysts for change, but anyone who believes that hasn’t read his history books carefully. Those hoping for a new and improved Arab Spring that delivers democracy and human rights should think again. – Haaretz 
​
Omar Alshogre writes: If, like in Egypt, the Syrian revolution had ended in less than a month, we would not have learned so much about freedom, democracy, and human rights. Ten years of unrest will make Syrians the most capable people in the Middle East at rebuilding their country in the future. We will not make the same mistakes of other countries that have rid themselves of their dictators but are still trapped in corrupt systems. – Foreign Policy 
Jeffrey Mankoff writes: In 2005, Putin famously said that the Soviet collapse represented the greatest geopolitical disaster of the twentieth century; less remarked on was his later observation that anyone wishing to restore it lacked a brain. As Eurasian geopolitics becomes increasingly complicated by the expansion of Chinese power, growing Turkish assertiveness, and questions about the durability of U.S. commitments, Russia’s ability to adapt and thrive should not be underestimated. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​
Robert O. Work writes: The purpose of this new concept is to help guide Joint Force doctrinal and programmatic development by describing a vision for human-machine collaborative battle networks waging high-intensity algorithmic operations against an opposing system of systems. This concept focuses on employing human-machine collaborative battle networks in the 2040 timeframe to guide force development beyond the current future-year defense plan. – Center for a New American Security ​
Earlier this week, Russia’s Defense Ministry released a video of the Avangard hypersonic-boost glide system being deployed in the Orenburg region near Russia’s border with Kazakhstan. […]The clip then showed several close-up shots of Avangard being installed onto a missile silo. “The complex technological operations last several hours,” read a Defense Ministry press statement accompanying the video.- The National Interest
Rachel Ellehuus and Donatienne Ruy write: By analyzing the internal causes of instability in littoral Mediterranean countries and external influence, the United States can craft a more effective strategy for the Mediterranean. Identifying common threats and opportunities throughout the Mediterranean and enhancing the ability of the United States and NATO to compete along the Southern Flank will be vital for continued success in this region. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​
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JEWISH AGENTS IN IRAN KILL MASARI:  IRANIAN MULLAH'S & AL-QAEDA

11/20/2020

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Will Sudan hand over Islamists to Egypt?
 During a recent meeting, Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the head of Sudan's Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman al-Burhan, discussed the handover of members of the banned Muslim Brotherhood to Cairo.
Failure in Armenian conflict should cause American soul-searching  
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner
3 intelligence failures from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict need investigating  
Michael Rubin | The National Interest
The Paradox of Precision: Nonstate Actors and Precision-Guided Weapons by Itamar Lifshitz and Ayal Meents
How To Build Upon Recent Progress in the Middle East
The Al-Masri Assassination: Another Iranian Intelligence Failure
By Dr. Ardavan Khoshnood, November 19, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: On August 7, 2020, the number 2 figure in al-Qaeda, Abdullah Ahmad Abdullah (known as Abu Muhammad al-Masri), was gunned down in Tehran. Al-Masri’s very presence in Iran exhibited the close relationship Tehran has with the Sunni terrorist organization, and his slaying shows the weakness of Iranian counterintelligence. The regime’s frustration at this intelligence failure will likely be expressed through acts of violence. It will probably reform its counterintelligence community and may ask for assistance in this endeavor from both Russia and China.
Continue to full article ->
Why Does Israel Execute Distant Enemies and Coddle Close Ones?  by Nave Dromi
The Jewish Press
November 18, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61783/the-difference-between-assassinations-near-and-far
No, It’s Not Surprising That Abu Muhammad al-Masri Was Living in Iran
​The Islamic Republic and al-Qaeda have a long history of cooperation.
Our So-Called Foreign Policy: China Advice that Biden (Unfortunately) Could Take
Biden and Erdogan: Five Potential Flashpoints in US-Turkish Relations
DoD Needs to Relearn the (Almost) Lost Art of Net Assessment
By Bryan Clark & Dan Patt & Timothy A. Walton, Strategy Bridge: "Tough choices lie ahead for the U.S. Department of Defense. Government relief in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and rising costs to service the federal debt are expected to constrain discretionary spending, including spending on defense. At the same time its budgets are being squeezed, the U.S. military will need to address a peer competitor in China; creative Russian, Iranian, North Korean adversaries; and a potentially unaffordable approach to deterring and waging war."
The Need to Compete on Multiple Battlegrounds:
An Interview with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster
By Octavian Manea, Small Wars Journal: "Increasingly we are seeing our adversaries attack our will to sustain our foreign policy and our efforts abroad."
Arabs Warn Biden: Do Not Embrace Islamists  by Khaled Abu Toameh 
Jihadi Reactions To The U.S.-Taliban Deal And Afghan Peace Talks
by Cole Bunzel via The Caravan Notebook
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