CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR - CounterStrikeMedia

WINNING IN AFGHANISTAN MEANS HURTING PAKISTAN

6/8/2019

IMF LOANS

FATAL FIRING ON PASHTUNS EXPOSES FRAGILE ARMY LEADERSHIP

Winning in Afghanistan requires taking the fight to Pakistan
Michael Rubin | The National Interest
Absent any strategy to bring Pakistan in line, it is important that President Trump and National Security Adviser John Bolton call the Khalilzad process what it is: window dressing on surrender and an invitation to further terrorism against the American homeland.

Winning in Afghanistan requires taking the fight to Pakistan
Reuters
Absent any strategy to bring Pakistan in line, it is important that President Trump and National Security Adviser John Bolton call the Khalilzad process what it is: window dressing on surrender and an invitation to further terrorism against the American homeland, explains Michael Rubin.

Talking to the Taliban With the Wrong Assumptions: The Conundrum of Afghan Peace
by Moh. Sayed Madadi

NATO TURKEY BEGINS TRAINING ON RUSSIAN DEFENSE MISSILE SYSTEM S400

6/8/2019

What is Russia's strategy in Idlib?
Russia is playing the long game with Turkey in the battle for the Syrian provence of Idlib.

US-Turkey Relations At Precipice; Turks Start S-400 Training
By Colin Clark
The Pentagon appears to be ready to take further action in the long-running saga over Turkey and the F-35.

U.S. Stops Training Turkish Officers as F-35 Pilots
Aykan Erdemir | Senior Fellow Merve Tahiroglu | Research Analyst

Putin's Turkish Gambit
By Burak Bekdil, June 7, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The first-ever NATO member state to shoot down a Russian military jet has willingly fallen in line with Vladimir Putin’s “Turkish Gambit,” a strategy designed to drive a deep crack into the NATO alliance.
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HOW DO THE ARABS SURVIVE THE 2030 AGENDA

6/1/2019

Beyond 2030: Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa
Karen E. Young | American Enterprise Institute
Energy-dependent growth in the Middle East and North Africa region will be sensitive to shifts in Asian economies, new technology, and efficiency innovation.

Saudi Religious Moderation: How Real Is It?
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, June 6, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman is determined to promote an image of himself as a harbinger of Saudi religious moderation, but many observers suspect that the changes he has implemented are only skin-deep. His reforms may turn out to have more to do with public relations than with fundamental change.
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THE NILE RIVER IS DRYING UP & TURKEY AND EGYPT ARE RIVALS FOR THE RED SEA REGION

5/25/2019

Death of the Nile
An in-depth look at how the lifeblood of Egypt is running dry.

Cairo and Riyadh, Vying for Leadership
by Ilias Kouskouvelis and Konstantinos Zarras
Middle East Quarterly
Spring 2019 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/57912/egypt-saudi-arabia-leadership

TURKEY, RUSSIA, IRAQ & THE S400: COMPLICATED RELATIONS GOING SOUR FAST & EXAMINING THE LIMTED SCOPE OF RUSSIAN SPECIAL OPERATORS

5/21/2019

AFPC’s Ilan I. Berman: Why Turkey’s Erdogan is worried

Russia’s Special Operations Forces Command and the Strategy of Limited Actions
By Roger N. McDermott, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "Since Moscow’s military intervention in Syria, expert attention has intermittently turned to the role played by Russian special forces in this theater of operations."

Turkish military begins training on S-400 in Russia
Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar has announced that a group of Turkish military specialists has arrived in Russia to receive training on the S-400 missile defense system. Akar added that Ankara has received a new proposal from the United States for its Patriot missile system and is now in talks over price, transfer and joint production. Washington has suspended Turkey's participation in the F-35 fighter jet program over Ankara's pending purchase of the S-400.
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TURKEY, RUSSIA:
Turkey Plans to Manufacture Russia's S-500 Air Defense
By Joseph Trevithick, The WarZone: “Turkish President Recep Erdogan says his country will cooperate on the production of Russia's S-500 surface-to-air missile system, a move that is sure to draw new criticism from the United States and its other fellow NATO members."

Major strategic implications if Iraq gets S-400
(Asia Times) It depends on which Russian publication you believe – TASS or Sputnik – on whether Iraq may be buying the Russian advanced S-400 air-defense system. But no matter whether they buy the system today or tomorrow, it is clear Iraq is heading that way.

IRAQ:
Major Strategic Implications If Iraq Gets S-400
By Stephen Bryen, Asia Times: "It depends on which Russian publication you believe – TASS or Sputnik – on whether Iraq may be buying the Russian advanced S-400 air-defense system. But no matter whether they buy the system today or tomorrow, it is clear Iraq is heading that way."

Kevin Newton writes: For Saudi Arabia and Iran, the advantages of forging closer links with Iraq go far beyond any money made from increased trade. First, the upside of denying a key regional rival such a market cannot be understated; a number of Saudis already suspect Iranian meddling via militias in the Iraqi economy. However, the bigger appeal may well be the geopolitical victory to be had. Iraq is another battleground in the broader cold war between the two powers. The question of determining whether Shiism or Arab nationalism is the more important factor in Iraq is one that both Saudi Arabia and Iran are hedging much of their foreign policy upon. – Middle East Institute

Ilan I. Berman writes: Turkey watchers believe that the country will find itself on the cusp of a serious budgetary crisis – one that could rock the foundations of Erdogan’s hold on power. Indeed, if true economic crisis hits, Turkey’s strongman could find himself rapidly shouldered out of office by the country’s oligarchs and entrenched corporate elites. Only time will tell whether he will. Over the years, Turkey’s wily head-of-state has proven himself to be a true political survivor. But mounting signs suggest that Turkish politics are suddenly in play in a way they have not been in nearly two decades. – Al –Hurra Digital

Philip Kowalski writes: While Erdoğan’s successes and failures with the Arab world have been much documented, his budding relationship with Pakistan could help make up for his losses elsewhere. With similar security concerns regarding foreign enemies and domestic insurgencies and a shared insecurity regarding military coups, Pakistan and Turkey are well placed to build closer ties in areas ranging from trade to culture. Should the proposed Istanbul peace talks or the FTA come to fruition, the Pakistani-Turkish relationship could take on even greater significance for both countries. – Middle East Institute

Idlib exposes Turkey’s weak hand against Russia
Despite the gains Turkey believes it's made through growing its relations with Russia, the two countries' priorities in Syria are anything but aligned.

KILLING OFF THE MULLAH'S AIN'T EASY & WHY THE POST ARAB SPRING IS MESSY FOR ISLAMIC CIVILIZATION

5/20/2019

Iran Might Not Be Able to Wait Trump Out New negotiations could be Tehran’s only option.
John Hannah | Senior Counselor

Iran Must Understand Returning to the Negotiating Table is the Only Way Forward
by Con Coughlin •

WINEP’s Simon Henderson: Iran’s deceptive nuclear messaging

Simon Henderson writes: Iran’s progress on developing advanced centrifuges—which can enrich uranium to higher levels more quickly and in greater quantity—is lacking so far. The main technical challenges of centrifuge design are maximizing their speed and height while avoiding breakdowns. Overcoming these obstacles is a matter of using the appropriate construction materials (special steel or carbon fiber, depending on the machine part in question) and going through considerable engineering trial and error (unless Iran obtains leaked secrets from specialist foreign firms). – Washington Institute

The IRGC, Iran’s military industrial complex
(Asia Times) The move to list the Guards as a terrorist entity could see factions from all sides close ranks and back them.

Trump seeks to bypass Congress on arming Gulf Arab states against Iran
The Donald Trump administration is preparing to transfer precision-guided munitions to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates amid escalating tensions with Iran in an end-run around Congress, Democrats warned Thursday. Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., who has held up the sale of more than 120,000 precision-guided munitions over the two countries' intervention in Yemen since last year, warned defense contractors against potentially exporting weapons with invalid licenses. Anti-war activists speculate that the Trump administration may justify the move by citing a threat from Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen. The effort comes as the Wall Street Journal reports that the White House and Pentagon agreed on Thursday to send up to 3,000 additional troops to the region to support submarines, planes, drones and anti-missile batteries in the first wave of a possible larger deployment.
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Iran’s balancing act: Khamenei’s strategic thinking at a critical juncture
Nicholas Carl | AEIdeas

Making Sense of Iranian Escalation
Behnam Ben Taleblu | Senior Fellow

Is the United States going to war with Iran? Probably not. Should the United States go to war with Iran? Probably not. In a Fox News op-ed, Ken Pollack unpacks the current tensions with Iran and explains the potential pitfalls the US should avoid on the road ahead. Pollack writes that the US could easily win a war against Iran, but in winning, we could collapse the Iranian regime, resulting in the same kind of chaos and internal conflict that our failure to prepare for a full-scale reconstruction of Iraq caused there. Read more here.

ICYMI: Following last week’s tensions between the US and Iran, revisit Ken Pollack’sblog series, “Pushback: Countering Iran in an evolving Middle East,” in which he details what a more confrontational US policy toward Iran could look like. Pollack fleshes out his ideas on how best to push back on Iran, beginning with a broad outline of the strategy and closing with a deeper look at its specific facets: the optimal US policy toward Syria, Iraq, the nuclear agreement, and regime change. Learn more here.

With US-Iran tensions at an all-time high, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is in a precarious situation. In an AEIdeas blog, Nicholas Carl explains that for both domestic and regional reasons, the Tehran regime needs to push back against Trump with strength and resolve. At the same time, Tehran must assuage European concerns over Iranian aggression in Syria, Yemen, and beyond and keep key European nations on board with the nuclear deal. The Iranian regime is juggling these interests, and one wrong move could be catastrophic. Finish reading here.

The Resilience of the Arab World’s ‘Pouvoir’
By Shlomo Ben-Ami, The Strategist (ASPI): "Eight years after the Arab Spring, dreams of democracy in the Arab world have been dashed by the harsh reality of autocracy, corruption and military rule. Yet Algeria and Sudan, neither of which was swept up in the 2011 turmoil, are now trying their luck at challenging the often-surreptitious powers that be—what Algerian demonstrators back in 1988 dubbed le pouvoir (‘the power’). Will Arab democracy movements fare any better this time?"

Iran's Proxy Armies Become a Regime Liability
By Austin Bay, Strategy Page: "Though loath to admit it, the Iranian regime recognizes its conventional military inferiority compared to its many adversaries, particularly Israel, the U.S. and Turkey. So, the ayatollahs use proxy war, covert attacks and terror strikes to rattle their adversaries and frustrate the great powers (like the U.S.) that seek regional stability."

Iran bluster is about red lines, not war
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

The missing piece in Trump’s 'maximum pressure' Iran campaign
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

How Loyal Is Iran's Network of Fighters?
Iran's nonstate partners are emerging as central players in the escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran. They pursue a range of activities that destabilize the Middle East and undermine U.S. interests. But RAND experts warn against treating these groups as a monolith. They aren't all Iranian proxies. And there are subtle but important differences in their ties to the regime. Understanding these distinctions is key to tracking bad behavior back to Iran. It may also help inform U.S. responses. Read more »

WINEP’s Jay Solomon: Are Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah trying to reprise Syria in Venezuela?

Kate Allen writes: The battle to oust Islamic State from Raqqa followed the modern US military playbook. A massive aerial assault conducted with willing military powers (here, the UK and France); zero use of ground troops; and a reliance on proxy fighters at street level (here, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces militia). The bombardment was immense. For four months the coalition pounded the city into the ground – with thousands of airstrikes (215 from the UK, says the MoD) and 30,000 US artillery rounds. – The Guardian

In its May 22, 2019 editorial, by Sa’dollah Zarei, the Iranian regime mouthpiece Kayhan called for destroying the Saudi regime, terming it a “cancerous growth.” Kayhan praised the Iran-backed Shi’ite Houthi Ansar Allah militia’s May 14, 2019 drone attack on the Saudi oil pipeline at Yanbu port. Without explicitly claiming that Iran was responsible for the May 12 attack on the oil tankers at the UAE port of Fujairah, the newspaper clarified that the message conveyed by this attack was harm to the U.S. – Middle East Media Research Institute

David Albright and Andrea Stricker write:With tensions increasing in the Middle East, the current situation, on the surface, does not appear to favor negotiations for a new deal. Moreover, the United States is demanding that Iran meet a dozen conditions relating not only to the nuclear and missile issues, but also to its malign regional activities and support for terror. Iran appears more focused on its own efforts to isolate the United States and threaten (and possibly carry out) asymmetric retaliation for the re-imposed sanctions. However, neither Iran nor the United States appear to want a crisis to grow into a military confrontation. With this dynamic, new negotiations may be the most advantageous path forward for both sides. – Institute for Science and International Security

Thirty years into rule, Khamenei continues centralizing power in Iran
Behnam Ben Taleblu | Senior Fellow

Pollack writes that the US could easily win a war against Iran, but in winning, we could collapse the Iranian regime, resulting in the same kind of chaos and internal conflict that our failure to prepare for a full-scale reconstruction of Iraq caused there. Keep reading here.

ASSAD'S REGIME ON THE ROPES AGAIN & SUDAN BREAKS THROUGH AN ABORTIVE ARAB SPRING; ALGERIA HOSTS A FRAGMENTING LIBYA

5/20/2019

Assad’s forces battle jihadists for key terrain in Latakia
The Turkistan Islamic Party, "Incite the Believers" operations room and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham are all battling Bashar al-Assad's loyalists in Latakia, Syria.

Sudan On The Cusp Of Democratic Change
by Larry Diamond, Anne Pence, Mohamed Abubakr via The American Interest
Larry Diamond is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and Stanford University. Anne Pence was G7/G8 policy advisor at the State Department, senior advisor to the US MCC, a USAID Mission economist in Sudan and is on the Advisory Board of the African Middle Eastern Leadership Project (AMEL). Mohamed Abubakr, a Sudanese human rights activist, is President of AMEL.

Algeria hosts Libyan leader as rockets hit Tripoli hotel
Rockets hit a Tripoli hotel today in an attack the UN-recognized government blamed on forces loyal to strongman Khalifa Hifter. Lawmakers opposed to Hifter have been meeting at the Rixos hotel to discuss his offensive against Tripoli. There was no immediate word of any casualties. Meanwhile on Thursday, Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj met with Algeria’s interim President Abdelkader Bensalah. The Algerian leader rejected a military solution in Libya, stressing his country’s support for Sarraj’s government.
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GETTING AFGHANISTAN RIGHT & PAKISTAN GETS ITS 22ND BAILOUT FROM IMF

5/17/2019

Outlasting the Taliban to Achieve Victory in Afghanistan
By Malcolm E. Whittaker, RealClearDefense: "The Thirty Years War? The Hundred Years War? The Forever War? More than 17 years after the United States invaded Afghanistan to depose the Taliban regime, the United States has failed to crush the resulting Taliban insurgency and cannot withdraw without allowing them to return to power.

Assessing the Trump team’s Afghanistan peace plan
Michael Rubin | The Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies
Zalmay Khalilzad, President Trump’s special envoy for Afghanistan, continues to pursue a diplomatic settlement with the Taliban framed mostly around the idea that the US will withdraw from Afghanistan and, in exchange, the Taliban will forswear terrorism. That strategy cannot work.

Pakistan on a Tightrope
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, May 19, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Pakistan risks falling off a tightrope as it attempts to balance its relations with rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Continue to full article ->

ADDRESSING PAKISTANS ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

ASIA TIMES

ASIA TIMES

Al-Qaeda elements are seen in parts of Afghanistan: Miller
(TOLO News) The U.S. and NATO Forces Commander in Afghanistan Gen. Scott Miller has said that there are some indications about the movements of al-Qaeda elements in some parts of Afghanistan but gave no details about the nature of these movements.

Michael Rubin writes: Khalilzad’s strategy will never work. Within the American political context, Khalilzad’s diplomatic agreement with the Taliban is meant to provide cover for President Donald Trump’s decision to withdrawal from Afghanistan and nothing more. Just as President Barack Obama became so committed to a nuclear bargain with Iran that he embraced a bad deal rather than consider no deal, the Taliban today recognizes that Trump and Khalilzad will make any concession so long as Trump can promise peace in our time. – The Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies

Pakistan’s army has sentenced a general to life imprisonment for spying and ordered the death penalty for a brigadier and a civilian officer convicted in the same case, a military statement said on Thursday. – Reuters

Sadanand Dhume writes: But although federalism may ensure that Mr. Modi does not quite become an Indian Vladimir Putin, it will do little to quell the fears of those who worry that the BJP will use its mandate to marginalize India’s Muslim and Christian minorities, empower Hindu zealots who espouse violence, replace scientific rationalism with Hindu mythology, and use tax authorities to bully and badger opponents. Mr. Modi may well prove his critics wrong by reining in party hotheads and focusing more on economic growth and less on divisive cultural issues. But until that happens, anxiety about what his mandate means cannot be dismissed. – Wall Street Journal

Muhammad Akbar Notezai writes: If these attacks continue, the CPEC’s chances of success will decrease, as will the possibility of Saudi-Iranian tensions on Pakistani soil. It is time for Islamabad to start treating the Baloch as stakeholders in the development of the Gwadar port, to make the CPEC successful. But unfortunately, Islamabad has always treated the Baloch as a problem, not a solution—and even increasing violence probably won’t change that. – Foreign Policy

HOW BIN LADEN WAS A LATECOMER TO ISLAMISM

5/17/2019

ASIA TIMES

US commander confirms: al Qaeda operating ‘across’ Afghanistan
Al Qaeda is operating "across the country" and not confined to one region, the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan said.

Peace in Afghanistan?
By Robert J. Felderman, RealClearDefense: "No amount of money will make a difference if Afghans don’t possess the skills to put the aid to good use. This is where the State Partnership Program (SPP) comes in."

NETANYAHU SEEKS IMMUNITY FROM PROSECUTION & HOW DOES BIBI GET TO PEACE

5/17/2019

ASIA TIMES

Likud member breaks with Netanyahu over immunity bill
Israeli opposition lawmakers praised Knesset member Gideon Saar on Thursday for breaking ranks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on a bill that would grant him immunity from prosecution while in office. Although Saar is from Netanyahu’s Likud Party, the two men have frequently clashed. Netanyahu has been working to advance a bill that would allow him to avoid prosecution in three pending corruption cases.
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Israel's Narrow Path To Peace
by Angelo M. Codevilla via Strategika
Pitilessly, the past quarter century’s events have dismissed the hopes for peace with the Arabs that Israeli diplomats, often accompanied by U.S. counterparts, detailed to the world in 1993 as they explained the concessions they had finalized in Oslo. Previously, they had treated Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization as a terrorist organization to be marginalized if not destroyed. The list of its outrages, from bombing school buses and airports to murdering Olympic athletes, spoke for itself. In 1982, the U.S. saved the PLO from imminent destruction by an Israeli and Lebanese alliance, and sustained it in supervised exile in Tunisia.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberman-is-right-to-protest-ultra-orthodox-coercion-but-an-election-wont-help/
● https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/A-third-election-in-2019-It-can-certainly-happen-analysis-591125
● https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberman-wont-say-hell-back-netanyahu-for-pm-after-elections-rules-out-gantz/
● https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-netanyahu-just-suffered-one-of-the-biggest-losses-of-his-political-career-1.7305540
● https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/prospect-of-new-israeli-vote-looms-as-netanyahu-struggles-with-coalition/2019/05/29/9155b71a-8171-11e9-b585-e36b16a531aa_story.html?utm_term=.f3602a7f8332

HOW THE SATANIC MULLAH'S IN IRAN WILL FALL: MICHAEL LEDEED EXPLAINS & NIGERIA, HOUTHI'S HEAT UP SAUDI ARABIA

5/16/2019

What to do with the crown jewels of Iran’s nuclear program

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/273722/mullah-panic-michael-ledeen

Is war with Iran imminent? Here's the real truth
Kenneth Pollack | Fox News
It is unlikely that the US will find itself in a war with Iran in the near term because both sides are eager to avoid one. Although some of President Trump’s advisers may welcome a clash with Tehran, he has consistently made clear that he wants to end American wars in the Middle East, not start new ones.

Yemen’s Houthis claim drone strikes on Saudi pipeline
The confirmed use of armed drones to target major oil pipelines deep within Saudi Arabia represents a major increase in the Houthis capabilities.

Deadly Niger ambush claimed by the Islamic State
The jihadist group also claimed an assault on a high-security prison near the capital of Niamey.

TALIBAN HOOKS UP WITH AL-QAEDA, CAN THE US ESCAPE THE MIDDLE EAST & US CARRIER GROUP TO THE PERSIAN GULF

5/13/2019

Al Qaeda video emphasizes unity with Taliban’s Islamic emirate
Al Qaeda has released a new video emphasizing its unity with the Taliban's Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The video features a joint Taliban-al Qaeda ambush on an Afghan army convoy in Paktika province.

The U.S. Can't Escape the Middle East
By Lara Seligman, Foreign Policy: "Almost 16 months ago, then-U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis initiated a course correction for the Pentagon. After 17 years of war in the Middle East, great power competition with Russia and China, not terrorism, would be the priority."

The Muslim Brotherhood and terrorism
Danielle Pletka | AEIdeas
Should the US designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization? Experts use Twitter to weigh in on the debate.

When terror runs in the family
Jessica Trisko Darden | AEIdeas

A New Strategy to Counter Iran’s Growing Power
Omar Hossino Obama’s attempt to make Tehran an ally against ISIS has backfired. Trump needs to ditch that approach to keep Iran in check and prevent an ISIS resurgence. Read More

B-52s, Patriots, F-35s and More: America's Mideast Deployment Rundown
by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
May 12, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58501/americas-mideast-deployment-rundown

MARTIN KRAMER EXAMINES THE RISE OF ISRAEL IN THREE ACTS & REVIEW OF US IRANIAN POLICY VIA OMAN

5/9/2019

MARTIN KRAMER

From Ben-Gurion to Netanyahu: The Evolution of Israel’s National Security Strategy
Jacob Nagel | Visiting FellowJonathan Schanzer | Senior Vice President for Research

Up for Debate: U.S.-Iran policy
Mark Dubowitz — Middle East Institute
So far, US policy seems to be working, albeit unevenly. The Trump administration has pursued an Iran policy based on the use of all instruments of national power — economic, diplomatic, and military deterrence — to stop Tehran from engaging in a wide array of aggressive and malign behaviors that defy global norms. So far, it seems to be working, albeit unevenly. The most successful part of the strategy has been the reinstatement of sanctions... Read more

Carrier strike group deployment offers opportunity to sharpen Iran policy
Behnam Ben Taleblu and Bradley Bowman — The Hill
Iran will continue to utilize asymmetric or “gray zone” tactics as long as it believes it can do so with relative impunity. However, when confronted with strength, Iran has often backed-down. Indeed, under the Trump administration, naval harassment of American vessels by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is reportedly decreasing. To explain its de-escalation to a domestic audience, the regime has twisted itself into rhetorical knots... Read more

Oman in the Middle Muscat’s Balancing Act Between Iran and America
Jonathan Schanzer | Senior Vice President for ResearchNicole Salter | Project Manager

Up for Debate: U.S.-Iran policy
So far, US policy seems to be working, albeit unevenly.
Mark Dubowitz | Chief Executive

RUSSIANS BEGINS BOMBING SYRIA. . . AGAIN & SECRETARY OF STATE GOES TO IRAQ

5/8/2019

Al Qaeda-linked operations room counterattacks as bombs fall in northern Syria
The Assad regime and Russia have stepped up their bombing campaign in northwestern Syria in recent weeks. The al Qaeda-linked "Incite the Believers" operations room has counterattacked with a series of operations.

"What the Iraq War tells us about Iran,"Col. (Ret.) Frank Sobchak and Bradley Bowman, The Hill

US POLICY IN PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN. . . ITS EVOLVING

5/7/2019

ASIA TIMES

The Anglo-Russian rivalry (called the Great Game) precipitated the Second Anglo-Afghan War. Afghanistan was of strategic importance to the British in the defence of their Indian Empire, and the prevention of the spreading influence of Russia. They favoured a Forward Policy of extending India's frontiers to the Hindu Kush and gaining control over Afghanistan. In 1878 Sher Ali, who for the majority of his reign kept good terms with the British, was devastated by the death of his favourite son and his court was in disarray. The British were trying to establish a permanent mission at Kabul which Sher Ali, trying to keep a balance between the Russians and British, would not permit. The arrival of a Russian diplomatic mission in Kabul increased British suspicions of Russian influence and ultimately led to the Second Afghan War. The British undertook a three-pronged drive into Afghanistan, held the Khyber Pass and defeated the Amir's forces. Appointing his son Yakub Khan as regent, Sher Ali fled from his capital to take refuge in Russian Turkestan but died at Mazhar-e-Sharif on 21 February 1879. Yakub had to agree to the Treaty of Gandamak, whereby Afghanistan ceded to the British control of its foreign affairs, and the Khyber and Michni Passes, and allowed British representatives in Kabul and other locations.

This photograph of the Amir actually dates from 1869 from the Ambala Durbar when he first entered into negotiations with the British. Burke reused it as part of the introduction to his Afghan War catalogue.

MAKING SENSE OF PALESTINIAN LOGIC & WHY DID US EXTEND NUCLEAR TRANSFERS TO IRAN?

5/7/2019

Making Sense of Palestinian Logic by Daniel Pipes
National Review Online
May 4, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58404/making-sense-of-palestinian-logic

THE SAUDI'S KEEP EXPORTING TERRORISM ABROAD & TURKEY WILL LOSE WITH S400 BID

5/5/2019

Wall Street may be returning to Saudi Arabia, but it’s not back to business as usual
Varsha Koduvayur | Senior Research Analyst

It’s Time for Saudi Arabia to Stop Exporting Extremism
Trump should not waste his opportunity to begin repairing Wahhabism’s trail of wreckage.
John Hannah | Senior Counselor

Ankara’s realignment with Russia will cost Turkey more than it thinks
Merve Tahiroglu and Greg Everett — The Hill
Washington’s deadline for Turkey to abandon its plans to purchase the S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system from Russia is fast approaching, with little progress. Fiercely defending his purchase of the missile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is accelerating Turkey’s strategic shift away from NATO. The costs of this shift are much larger than Turkey’s leaders are willing to admit — and not only on the country’s defense sector, but also its energy sector... Read more

Wall Street may be returning to Saudi Arabia, but it’s not back to business as usual
Varsha Koduvayur — CNN Business
Despite the concerns of many firms, it’s unclear whether Mohammed bin Salman realizes — or cares — how serious a blow the kingdom’s image has taken. Western firms that do business with Saudi Arabia may face a Sisyphean challenge when trying to protect their reputations after every new outrage. Under such conditions, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to get the buy-in it wants from the business community... Read more

CHINA'S PLAN FOR THE MIDDLE EAST, THE SUDANESE COUP & GETTING OUT OF YEMEN

5/3/2019

China and the Sudan Coup By Roie Yellinek, May 2, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: On April 11, 2019, Sudan’s long reigning president Omar Bashir was overthrown in a military coup after 30 years at the helm. China, one of his staunchest supporters, must now assess how to maintain its relationship with the African nation, which lies on a critical spot on the prospective Belt and Road route.
Continue to full article ->

Arab Power Struggles Are Alive and Well
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, May 10, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Libya’s battle for Tripoli alongside ongoing mass anti-government demonstrations that toppled autocratic leaders of Algeria and Sudan demonstrate that the popular Arab protests that in 2011 forced four presidents out of office – as well as the counterrevolution it provoked – are alive and kicking.
Continue to full article ->

Sudan army rejects civilian majority in ruling council
(BBC) A top official in Sudan's military council has told the BBC it will not allow civilians a majority on the supreme council set to rule the country during a transitional period.

A real plan to end the war in Yemen
Kenneth Pollack, Barbara Walter, and Michael Knights | Foreign Affairs
Of all the options before the United States, ending support to Saudi Arabia is the one that is least likely to stop the killing, dying, and complications for US interests.

Brett McGurk writes: China is making a risky bet in the Middle East. By focusing on economic development and adhering to the principle of noninterference in internal affairs, Beijing believes it can deepen relations with countries that are otherwise nearly at war with one another—all the while avoiding any significant role in the political affairs of the region. This is likely to prove naive, particularly if U.S. allies begin to stand up for their interests. – Defense One

EGYPT MOVES AHEAD WITH NUCLEAR POWER & IMF LOAN

5/1/2019

Egypt presses ahead with nuclear power
Egypt's al-Dabaa site in the northern Marsa Matrouh governorate has won permits to begin construction for the country's first nuclear power station.

No one in the sun -and gas- soaked Middle East needs nuclear power
M ark Dubowitz and Henry Sokolski — Washington Examiner
Wednesday’s decision by the Islamic Republic of Iran to break the restrictions of the Iran nuclear deal is a further reminder that neither Iran, nor for that matter Saudi Arabia, needs nuclear power. Nor, for that matter, does any other state in the gas-soaked, sun-drenched Middle East, where civil nuclear programs are simply nuclear bomb starter kits. Instead of straining to control these programs, or even facilitating them, the U.S. should encourage less risky, cheaper, clean non-nuclear alternatives.... Read more

After finalizing IMF loan, Egypt’s reforms target industrialization, exports
An IMF mission, currently in Cairo to review Egypt’s economic reform program under a $12 billion loan, is focusing on the country’s plan to launch structural reforms, targeting the industrial and export sectors.

PROGRESS IN THE LONG WAR EXAMINED

5/1/2019

The Iranian Government's 40 Years of Hatred Towards America by Majid Rafizadeh

AEI: CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Salafi-jihadi groups such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State use both coercion and persuasion to gain support from vulnerable populations. In a Critical Threats Project analysis, Emily Estelle shows how Ansar al Islam’s activities in northern Burkina Faso exemplify how Salafi-jihadi groups exploit conditions of poor governance and conflict. Because of this exploitation, communities under pressure accept and sometimes support the Salafi-jihadi presence as a means of survival even when they do not accept the groups’ ideology. Read more here

Examining the Global Terrorism Landscape
Bill Roggio testifies before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa and International Terrorism, and examines the global terrorism landscape.

Baghdadi outlines path forward for Islamic State post-caliphate
(The Associated Press) No longer burdened by territory and administration, Islamic State group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi outlined the new path forward for his group: Widen your reach, connect with far-flung militant groups and exhaust your enemies with a “war of attrition.”

Chaos in Sudan and the rest of North Africa threatens all of us
Emily Estelle | Los Angeles Times
The US administration is turning away from Africa at a time when more engagement is crucial.

LIBYA: GENERALS VS. ISLAMISTS

4/30/2019

Libya's Coming Forever War: Why Backing One Militia Against Another Is Not the Solution by Frederic Wehrey and Emadeddin Badi

Libyan government presses US to block Gulf support for Tripoli offensive
The UN-backed Government of National Accord is lobbying Washington to halt Khalifa Hifter’s offensive on Tripoli by denying him arms from Gulf Arab states.

Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar's forces will launch a renewed push to seize Tripoli this month, leading to protracted fighting and a humanitarian crisis.
- Al Qaeda and the Islamic State will thrive amidst the fighting.

Generals vs Islamists in Libyaby Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
April 24, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58334/generals-vs-islamists-in-libya

Libyan forces push Hifter's army back in southern Tripoli
Forces loyal to Libya’s internationally recognized government appeared to push back Khalifa Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) in house-to-house fighting in southern Tripoli on Sunday. The fighting comes as four people were killed and 20 others were wounded in air raids on the capital a day earlier. Hifter's forces have been leading a three-week offensive on Tripoli that has killed at least 278 people. This weekend's air strikes came as the LNA said it had dispatched a warship to Ras Lanuf, a major oil port, to secure the country’s oil facilities. Read More 

"Al Qaeda and the Islamic State will be the winners of the Libyan civil war".

What Russia makes of Hifter's offensive on Tripoli
Russia has positioned itself as an impartial middleman in the Libyan crisis, but there's a fine blueprint that defines this position.

INDIA COUNTERS CHINA'S GRAND AMBITIONS ABOUT BELT AND ROADS

4/26/2019

ASIA TIMES

IRAN REVEALS NEW IRGC COMMANDER

4/26/2019

Tehran appoints new IRGC chief commander
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Hossein Salami as the new chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on April 21, replacing Mohammad Ali Jafari after 12 years in command. Salami previously served as deputy commander to Jafari for a decade.

Hossein Salami The New Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps
Read more Full document in PDF format

U.S., IRAN:
Why Iran-U.S. Confrontation May Intensify Under New IRGC Commander
By Saeid Jafari, Al-Monitor: "Iran replaced the commander of its powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) less than two weeks after the United States designated it a "foreign terrorist organization." Given the wider global agenda advanced by the new IRGC commander, the replacement is a clear signal from Tehran that bowing to Washington's pressure is not an option."

THE BATTLE OF AFGHANISTAN & PLOT TWISTS FOR MBS TO MOUNT THE THRONE

4/25/2019

Khalilzad flip flops on Pakistan, Taliban’s relationship with al Qaeda
In his testimony to Congress in July 2016, Zalmay Khalilzad called for designating Pakistan a State Sponsor of Terrorism for its support of the Taliban, noted the enduring Taliban-al Qaeda alliance. Today he praises Pakistan for its desire for peace in Afghanistan and claims the Taliban will be an effective counterterrorism partner.

The Battle of Afghanistan “Fundamentally, war is a contest of wills.”
Clifford D. May | Founder & President

Simon Henderson writes: One ‎monarch, Saud, was forced to abdicate in 1964 under family pressure. The next, Faisal, was assassinated in 1975 ‎by a nephew. King Khalid followed, but he was just a figurehead. And so on until the thirty-three-year-old ‎phenomenon known as MbS, a modernizer who has quickly gained notoriety for his reckless administrative ‎style. Whether he ultimately ascends the throne will entail plenty of plot twists, but it also holds serious ‎implications for the kingdom, the future of the region, and U.S. interests. – Washington Institute

It’s getting harder to track US progress in Afghanistan
(Defense One) It’s getting harder and harder for the public to track the U.S. military’s progress in its 17-year war in Afghanistan, the special inspector general for Afghan reconstruction warned Wednesday ahead of the release of his latest quarterly report.

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
U.S. Employs Unprecedented Number of Security Contractors in Afghanistan
By Paul D. Shinkman, U.S. News & World Report: "More than 5,800 privately employed security personnel are currently operating in Afghanistan under Pentagon contracts, according to the latest report released this month that the military headquarters overseeing Middle East wars compiles for Congress."

An Afghan peace on whose terms?
(The Diplomat) Peace talks are predicated on the notion that the Taliban have fundamentally changed. They haven’t.

SRI LANKA HIT WITH IMPORTED TERROR SQUAD

4/24/2019

Krishnadev Calamur writes: When Sri Lanka’s brutal civil war ended in an equally brutal fashion a decade ago, there was hope that the island nation could leave its past behind. The Easter Sunday bombings, the first attacks of this scale since the war, are a reminder of how fragile the peace the nation achieved really is. The attacks on churches and hotels, which killed more than 200 people, came at a crucial juncture: The country is still struggling to reconcile its past while building a new future. – The Atlantic

The Sri Lanka Church Bombings: The Saudi Pestilence Spreads

arab_regimes_are_the_world’s_most_powerful_islamophobes_–_foreign_policy.pdf
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AFRICA'S POST COLONIAL ERA ENDING
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AFRICAN ARAB SPRING

AFRICAN ARAB SPRING
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ISHMAEL IS NOT FATHER OF ARABS

ISHMAEL NOT FATHER OF ARAB CIVILIZATION
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DEFEATING SECTARIANISM IN MIDDLE EAST

rand_rb10052.pdf
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SECULARISM, NATIONALISM, ISLAMISM: MAKING MODERN MIDDLE EAST
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terrorism-tactics-and-transformation.pdf
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CHANGING DYNAMICS OF SALAFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS

FOREIGN AFFAIRS - THE ARAB SPRING @ 5
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BIN SALMAN & THE REFORM OF SAUDI ARABIA
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NATIONAL INTEREST, ARAB SPRING
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FOLLOWING VISION 2030

MEF RADIO LIVE

SECTARIANISM MIDDLE EAST.pdf
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THE PAKISTAN READER

ARAB SPRING & POLITICAL REFORM
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ISRAELI NEWS NETWORK

THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM

250 YEARS OF AMERICAN IRREGULAR WAR

AEI - CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT: SALIFI JIHADI MOVEMENTS GROWING

ABBAS MILANI HOOVER PAGE: IRAN & U.S. RELATIONS

HOOVER INSTITUTION BLOG ON THE NEAR EAST

JEWISH INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY OF AMERICA

FATA PAKISTAN RESEARCH CENTER

ISRAELI NUCLEAR POSTURE & DOCTRINES

CONTAIN, DEGRADE, DEFEAT: PLAN FOR MIDDLE EAST

THE PLAN TO DEFEAT THE ISLAMIC STATE & al-QAEDA

CENTER FOR SECURITY, REGIONAL STUDIES, KABUL

AfPak POLICY OPTIONS

ISLAMISM & INTERNATIONAL ORDER

HOOVER INSTITUTION PUBLICATION ON U.S. NEAR EAST POLICY

Israeli Security & Gulf States

PRINCIPALS GUIDING US POLICY IN MIDDLE EAST

HOW ISRAEL WINS

FREE BOOKS ON MIDDLE EAST

AEI: GLOBAL JIHADI THREAT & BEYOND

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THE ETTINGER REPORT: U.S. ISRAELI RELATIONS

GOOGLE NEWS PAKISTAN

HOW TO WIN WORLD WAR IV

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE LONG WAR

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