CENTRAL COMMAND: CENTCOM & THE LONG WAR - CounterStrikeMedia

BIBI & GANTZ: THE ISRAELI SLOG; SAUDI LED COALITION HEATS UP IN YEMEN, WHY IS GERMANY IN LIBYA

10/27/2019

Egypt escalates campaign against Turkey's Erdogan
Egypt is working to mobilize Arab states and the United Nations against Turkey's president over his foreign policies and criticism of the Egyptian government.

Netanyahu and Gantz Need to Learn the Hebrew Word "Mamlachtiut"
By Dr. Asaf Romirowsky, October 28, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Israeli notion of mamlachtiut does not translate well into English. Coming from the word mamlacha, or kingdom, the word suggests the quality of acting in a sovereign-like fashion. David Ben-Gurion used the term when he spoke of the Jews’ usage of military power while exercising caution with their political power. In Israeli history books, the term is conjured every time the nation faces a major juncture that requires individuals and factions to transcend partisan loyalties. Judging from their behavior in the recent elections, Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz both appear to be fuzzy on the meaning of the word.
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Arab coalition in Yemen repositioned under Saudi command
The Saudi-led coalition said Sunday its forces have repositioned in Yemen’s southern city of Aden to come under the command of Saudi Arabia. The redeployment comes as part of the coalition’s efforts to coordinate military and security operations. The move follows a power-sharing deal struck over the weekend between Yemen’s internationally recognized government and southern separatists backed by the United Arab Emirates.
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arabnews.com

German foreign minister heads to Cairo after stop in Libya
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas is scheduled to meet today with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo. Maas’ visit to Cairo follows a brief stop Sunday in Libya, where Maas met with the head of the internationally recognized government, Fayez al-Sarraj. The two discussed Germany’s offer to host an international conference on the Libyan conflict. Eastern military commander Khalifa Hifter has been leading an offensive against the government in Tripoli since April.
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english.ahram.org.eg

Russia, Egypt kick off first air defense drills
Russia and Egypt launched their first air defense drills at the Egyptian air defense troops’ tactical training center on Saturday. The Russian Defense Ministry said the goal of the exercises is to share experience between the Russian and Egyptian military and ensure airspace security. The exercises will take place through Nov. 7 in Egypt with more than 100 Russian anti-aircraft gunners participating.
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tass.com

SHARIF: RAGE AGAINST THE PAKISTANI MACHINE

10/27/2019

HOW SHARIF IS WINNING PAKISTAN'S DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT

THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN

ASIA TIMES

RUSSIA MOVES INTO NORTH AFRICA: ALGERIA GOES TO MOSCOW WHILE THE HOUSE OF SAUD TRIES TO CONSOLIDATE IN YEMEN

10/25/2019

Putin's Policies Are Not New
By Emil Avdaliani, October 30, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: It has become fashionable to link Russian foreign policy moves of the past 20 years solely to President Vladimir Putin and his close associates. But what is viewed as innovative is in fact an intensification of much older policies that long preceded Putin’s rise to power.
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PAUL STAROBIN
Putin’s Middle East?
Exploring the implications of Russia’s increasing engagement in the region—and the American drawdown.

Clarity Amidst Chaos: The Implications of Trump's Syria Policy
By Dr. Alex Joffe, October 27, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The American withdrawal from Syria has produced chaotic results – but as with many aspects of President Trump’s presidency, it offers an opportunity to view realities with a new clarity. The nature of Turkey under Erdoğan, European weakness, and the unwillingness of America to support indecisive military missions have been revealed. These realities demand new approaches to European defense and to Middle Eastern engagement and disengagement.
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Algeria judges go on strike ahead of presidential elections
Algeria’s judges and prosecutors began an open-ended strike on Sunday demanding the independence of the judiciary after a major reshuffle that affected thousands. The Ministry of Justice carried out the changes earlier this month, in a move described by the National Magistrates' Syndicate as “a stranglehold by the executive over the power of the judiciary.” Meanwhile, protesters took to the streets Friday for the 36th week in a row to demand that Dec. 12 presidential elections be delayed until more of the ruling elite step down following President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's resignation in April.
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middleeasteye.net

Russia and Algeria discuss cooperation
Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Algeria’s interim President Abdelkader Bensalah on Thursday on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa economic summit in Sochi. The two leaders discussed bilateral relations and ways to boost cooperation in the technical and military fields. The first-ever economic summit aims to boost economic relations and joint projects between Russia and African countries. Algeria is one of Russia’s leading partners on the African continent and signed a $7.5 billion arms deal with Moscow in 2006.
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tass.com

Saudi Arabia is pursuing a limited cease-fire with the al Houthi movement to secure its southern border. The al Houthis have long sought to pressure Saudi Arabia to accept a cease-fire. Iran is attempting to leverage the Yemen cease-fire talks to advance its effort to split the Gulf States from the US and consolidate the influence of its al Houthi partners in Yemen.Check out detailed analysis in the Yemen File on:
- Saudi-al Houthi Relations
- The Conflict in Southern Yemen

Turkey's Invasion of Syrian Kurdistan as Seen from Tehran
By Dr. Doron Itzchakov, October 25, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Though it prompted angry reactions from senior officials in Tehran, the Turkish attack on Syrian Kurdistan offers both pros and cons for the Islamic Republic – and the potential positives likely outweigh the negatives.
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Turkey's Nuisance Value
By Burak Bekdil, October 25, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkey’s value for the West is not about the good it can offer but the evil it might choose not to spread. In recent years western tolerance of Turkey has stemmed not from appreciation of its advanced democratic culture but from fears of the chaos it can unleash.
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PUTIN CONQUERED THE MIDDLE EAST, HERE'S HOW THE AMERICAN'S GET IT BACK

10/23/2019

U.S., TURKEY:
Our Untenable Alliance with Turkey
By Victor Davis Hanson, National Review: "There are about 5,000 members of the U.S. military, mostly airmen, stationed at the huge, strategically located air base in Incirlik, Turkey, northwest of the Syrian border."

The Kurds are not angels
But among the many Muslim nations, America has had no better friend.

Putin conquered the Middle East. The US can get it back.
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion

Seven Pillars: What Really Causes Instability in the Middle East?'
Michael Rubin and Brian Katulis | AEI Press

Putin is the New King of Syria by Jonathan Spyer
The Wall Street Journal
October 16, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59645/putin-is-the-new-king-of-syria

Tehran’s tyrants have been provoked

Trump’s Syria pullout, aiding Russia and Turkey, is when America stopped leading the world
Since the end of WWII, every other president understood that U.S. power and wealth can only be sustained by assuming great responsibility.

Lost in the Furor Over Syria: Alliances are a Means, not an End
by Doug Bandow and Christopher Preble

Trump’s Turkey problem

ASSAD, OR WE BURN THE COUNTRY: ISLAMIC AUTOCRACY IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

10/18/2019

100 YEARS OF KURD FAILURE & HOW THE SUDANESE ARE FAILING THE ARAB SPRING

10/15/2019

South Sudan’s fragile peace deal is faltering less than a month before the country’s president and armed opposition leader are meant to form a coalition government and begin the long recovery from a five-year civil war. […]The U.S. has said it will reevaluate its relationship with South Sudan if a new government isn’t formed next month. – Associated Press

Trump's Misguided Syria Policy
by Josef Joffe via The American Interest
History will judge Trump as harshly for his betrayal of the Kurds as it has the apostles of “peace in our time.”

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/10/islamic-state-sleeper-cells-target-raqqa.php

The Invisible Hand of Military Merger: Organisational Culture in Kurdistan
By Verena Gruber, Defence-In-Depth: "When it comes to unifying formerly hostile armed forces, the autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq (KRI) provides an outstanding example."

10 reasons why Trump is wrong to support Turkey
Michael Rubin | The National Interest
As Islamic State prisoners go free and hundreds of thousands of Kurds, Christians, and Yazidis flee Turkey’s bombardment, how true are the assumptions driving Trump’s turn toward Turkey?

Kurdish, Syrian, And Turkish Ironies
by Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
Critics now upset about abandoning our Kurdish friends demanded abject withdrawals — and the abandonment of friends — in Afghanistan and Iraq.

THE SAUDI'S GO IT ALONE & AL-QAEDA DOMINATES THE SUBCONTINENT

10/15/2019

Going it alone: Saudi Arabia’s economic realities after attacks
Karen E. Young | Al-Monitor

ETHIOPIA, EGYPT WAR OVER WATER & SUDAN FAILES FORMATION OF UNITY GOVERNMENT

10/13/2019

South Sudan: Machar Seeks to Delay Unity Government. South Sudan’s main opposition leader, Riek Machar, is calling for a six-month delay in the formation of a unity government following the failure of the government to push a peace deal through. "It's not rocket science that the government in Juba lacks political will to implement the peace deal," Puok Both Buluang, Machar's spokesman, said. Al Jazeera

US hosts Nile dam talks at Egypt’s behest
The United States has invited the foreign ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan in an effort to mediate a feud over a giant Ethiopian hydropower dam over the Nile River. Washington is hosting the talks at the behest of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who asked President Donald Trump to help mediate the dispute during a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September. Egypt fears that the dam will further exacerbate its already dire water shortage woes and has asked the World Bank to help mediate among the parties. World Bank Group President David Malpass is expected to attend Wednesday’s talks if all three parties participate (Egypt and Ethiopia have already confirmed their attendance).

The meeting will be hosted by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin rather than the State Department, for reasons that remain unclear. The US mediation comes as Russia has been playing an increasingly active role in Africa, hosting its first-ever Russia-Africa summit in Sochi last week. In an Oct. 3 statement, the White House said it supported the negotiations between the three countries to reach a “cooperative, sustainable and mutually beneficial agreement.”

WHY THE FALL OF MOSUL MATTERS

10/13/2019

https://www.amazon.com/They-Will-Have-Die-Now-dp-B07Y5MTKZV/dp/B07Y5MTKZV/ref=mt_audio_download?_encoding=UTF8&me=&qid=

the future of south asia revealed & IRAQI KURDISTAN REMAINS U.S. CENTERPIECE FOR MESOPOTAMIA

10/1/2019

IMRAN KHAN IS A FAILURE

ORIENTALISM: FAILURE FOR ARAB CIVILIZATION

Intra-Afghan dialogue belongs inside of Afghanistan, not Qatar, Russia, or China
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner
One stated reason to retreat from Afghanistan is the cost of continued operations: easily $30 billion per year. But encouraging a dialogue in Afghanistan would cost little to nothing.

TNSR Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia by Myra MacDonald, Yelena Biberman, Michael Kugelman, Rohan Mukherjee, and Debak Das

The US Cannot Neglect Iraqi Kurdistan
by Seth Frantzman and Eric R. Mandel
The Hill
September 27, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59452/the-us-cannot-neglect-iraqi-kurdistan

THE LONG WAR & AFRICA: IRREGULAR WAR CONTINUES; MARTIN KRAMER REVEALS THE 7 BLACK SWANS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST

9/19/2019

Embracing Special Operations Civil Affairs Support to the IIR
By Benjamin F. Ordiway, Small Wars Journal: “From an organizational perspective, SOF leadership should consider engaging embassies to rethink team employment so teams can best identify, assess, and potentially leverage critical physical and human infrastructure within the civil component to achieve operational and strategic effects."

MARTIN KRAMER

The Unbalanced
by Charles Hill via The Caravan
Balance is one of the innate concepts of the human condition, vital but never entirely attainable. Aristotle concludes his Politics with the imperative in every society of seeking a balance between the male “Dorian” and female “Phrygian” modes – not necessarily gendered but a human necessity all the same. Balance in baseball is a goal; the American League’s long streak of victories over the National League in the All-Star Games is concerning to the keepers of the sport. And, most obviously, the balance-of-power doctrine in matters of war and diplomacy are as old as these arts themselves.

JORDAN: Saud Al-Sharafat writes: As Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood struggles to avoid continued fragmentation and domestic isolation, the groups are likely to hone their focus on external targets, such as the ‘Deal of the Century,’ in order to bolster domestic support. Even so, and despite some parliamentary willingness to engage, it appears increasingly unlikely that the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan will be able to return to the type of strength demonstrated just eight years ago during the Arab Spring. – Washington Institute

The Pentagon is taking on ISIS 'clandestine insurgency'

Irregular warfare remains the threat, despite a Marine Corps shift to the near-peer fight
(Marine Corps Times) As the Marine Corps and its sister services shift focus to near peer battles and the range of ways to meet that fight, some experts think they may be losing sight of ways in which other threats could emerge both separate from peers and from them through other means.

New AFRICOM chief in Niger to assess security in volatile western Africa
(Stars & Stripes) U.S. Africa Command’s Gen. Stephen Townsend met with American troops in Niger on Thursday during a visit to assess security in the West Africa region, which is grappling to counter several Islamic militant groups.

Africa File is a biweekly analysis and assessment of the Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa and related security and political dynamics. Each edition begins "At a Glance” followed by country-specific updates. Read this week’s edition here!

At a Glance: Global counterterrorism efforts have passed their high-water mark and are receding. US Africa Command is shifting its prioritization from the counterterrorism mission to great power competition, a move also intended to reduce risk after a 2017 attack killed four servicemen in Niger. However, the Salafi-jihadi movement continues to make gains in Africa, including in areas in which previous counterterrorism efforts had significantly reduced Salafi-jihadi groups’ capabilities.
September 17 Briefing: Counterterrorism efforts have reduced Salafi-jihadi activity in North Africa significantly since 2015. These gains are vulnerable, however, as Libya’s civil war continues to churn and Algeria, typically a security exporter, navigates a fraught political transition. The return of North African foreign fighters from Syria and Iraq will likely also contribute to a renewed Salafi-jihadi threat within and emanating from North Africa in the coming year.
Check out detailed analysis on:
- North Africa
- East Africa
- West Africa

The remnants of the Islamic State have returned to the group’s insurgent roots since the destruction of its land caliphate earlier this year, but it may be regrouping to make another land grab, the Pentagon says. The terrorist group has been operating in a “clandestine” fashion since losing the last of its territory in Iraq and Syria, said Chris Maier, director of the Pentagon’s Defeat-ISIS Task Force, in a Wednesday press briefing. – Washington Examiner

THE SHIA HIT THE SUNNI HEARTLAND & RIYADH WANTS TO GO NUCLEAR WITH AMERICA'S HELP

9/18/2019

Are air defense systems ready to confront drone swarms?
(Defense News) The attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities on Sept. 14 served as a reality check for countries struggling to define the level of the threat posed by drone swarms and low-altitude cruise missiles.

"Lebanon, Hezbollah and Iran’s Emerging Client State," Tony Badran and Jonathan Schanzer, The Wall Street Journal
"U.S.-Iran next moves — Déjà vu of Obama administration mistakes?" Jacob Nagel, The Hill

Tom Rogan writes: For all Zarif’s hyperbolic tendencies, the foreign minister is aligned with a more moderate faction under Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. He knows that there are only two ways for Iran to escape the catastrophic sanctions pressure it now faces: Either wait in hope that a Democrat defeats Trump in 2020 and rejoins the nuclear agreement, or agree to a new nuclear agreement with Trump on terms more favorable to U.S. interests. That’s why Rouhani was moving toward meeting Trump at next week’s United Nations General Assembly. – Washington Examiner

Michael Rubin writes: Military action against Iran seems increasingly likely as intelligence and forensic evidence collected in the wake of the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil installations suggests Iranian responsibility. While diplomats, intelligence analysts, and politicians can debate the wisdom of military strikes, if the United States (or Saudi) government makes such a decision, what might be the primary targets? Here are five. – Washington Examiner

The Peace Fantasy
by Samuel Tadros via The Caravan
In the introduction to his book, Power, Faith and Fantasy, the Middle East historian turned diplomat turned Israeli politician, Michael Oren, reflected on the chosen title. These three themes had guided the American adventure in the region power or “the pursuit of American interests,” faith or “the impact of religion in the shaping of American attitudes and policies,” and finally fantasy, “the idea of the Middle East has always enchanted Americans.” To be fair to America, it was hardly unique in its fantasies. In his magnum opus, The Chatham House Version, Elie Kedourie had aptly diagnosed the British fantasy “all those episodes show successive and cumulative manifestations of illusion, misjudgment, and failure.” Nowhere has this been truer than in the Holy Land.

The Iran War: Danger Lurks In Inaction
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | September 19, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/war-in-the-gulf-danger-lurks-in-inaction/90838/

Saudi Arabia: U.S. Senators Urge an End to Saudi Nuclear Talks. Senators Ed Markey and Jeff Merkley, members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, wrote to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Energy Secretary Rick Perry urging the administration to discontinue recent talks with Saudi Arabia about nuclear power development. "Sharing nuclear technology with Saudi Arabia, especially without adequate safeguards, will give Riyadh the tools it needs to turn the crown prince's nuclear weapons vision into reality," the senators wrote in the letter. Perry told reporters on Tuesday at a nuclear power conference in Vienna the United States would only provide Saudi Arabia with nuclear power technology if it signed an agreement with a U.N. watchdog allowing for intrusive snap inspections. But Saudi Arabia has resisted agreeing to strict nonproliferation restrictions, known as the gold standard, that would block it from enriching uranium and reprocessing spent fuel, potential pathways to making a nuclear bomb. Reuters VOA News

HOW TRUMP'S INSTINCTS ON IRAN ARE WRONG

Stand up to Iran’s oil market terrorism

Saudi Arabia and Iran Careen toward Conflict by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
September 15, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59357/saudi-iran-careen-toward-potential-conflict

HOW IRAN USES IRAQ

THE ENDGAME BEGINS

ROBIN MILLS OIL EXPERT

TRUMP'S IRANIAN TRAP

John Bolton would counsel against appeasement In response to Tehran’s latest attack on Saudi Arabia and threats against the U.S.

A Major Attack on Saudi Aramco Leaves the U.S. in a Difficult Spot
From Stratfor Worldview: “Given the facilities' geographic location, the Saudi air defense focus on Yemen, the angles of impact, the overflight reports over Kuwait and debris recovered from a failed cruise missile, it is quite likely that the attacks came from Iraqi or Iranian territory — or both."

Michael Eisenstadt writes: An effective U.S. gray zone strategy could help blunt Iran’s counter-pressure campaign, constrain its ability to engage in destabilizing regional activities, and dissuade it from eventually attempting a slow-motion nuclear breakout. Conversely, failure to pursue such a strategy could embolden Tehran on all of these fronts. More fundamentally, if the United States does not operate successfully in the gray zone against a third-tier power like Iran, this will raise questions about its ability to counter much more capable actors like Russia and China in the years to come. – Washington Institute

Tom Rogan writes: But short of Saudi military action, it makes sense for President Trump to pledge, as he did on Wednesday, to “substantially increase sanctions” on Tehran. Absent this new pain, Iran will see its attack as a stunning success: as proof that it can escalate against America’s international order without consequence and thus as a reason to risk more aggressive attacks in the future, including against America. – Washington Examiner

Ilan Berman writes: The stakes are exceptionally high. A cogent, hard-hitting response to the Saudi attacks could go a long way toward reassuring America’s Middle Eastern partners that it remains committed to repelling Iranian aggression and safeguarding their security. A lackluster U.S. reply, on the other hand, would inevitably result in a massive loss of confidence in the Trump administration among the countries of the region. That, in turn, raises the risks of a wider conflict, as the Saudis (and perhaps others) are prompted to take matters into their own hands. – The Hill

Anthony H. Cordesman writes: As Iran may well have already demonstrated, cruise missiles and UCAVs can also be used to counter or supplement economic warfare and deal with sanctions. They reinforce the fact that the ability to escalate in some military ways is not producing some new form of mutually assured destruction, but is integrating political, economic, and military warfare. Seen from a broader perspective, they are a warning that the only rules to future warfare are that there are no rules, and that the only fully predictable aspect of the future of warfare is that it will be at least as unpredictable as in the past. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

In a September 17, 2019 article titled ‘Rescue the World from the Persian Nazism,’ Ahmed Al-Jarallah, editor-in-chief of the Kuwaiti English-language daily Arab Times, wrote that the issue of confronting Iran is no longer just a matter of thwarting the Persian expansion project but a matter of countering a threat to global security. In this situation, he said, American and European notions of going back to the Barack Obama policy of rapprochement with Iran are no longer feasible; the world must act to ensure a steady supply of oil at reasonable prices, for a failure to do so will result in a global recession. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Iran's Attack On Saudi Arabia Reveals Our Foreign Policy Muddle
by Bruce Thornton via Front Page Magazine
We're stuck in fossilized paradigms while our enemies grow stronger.

TUNISIA: THE OUTSIDERS ARE IN & ALGERIAN PROTESTERS CRIMINALIZED

9/18/2019

Leader of Tunisia’s Islamist party elected parliament speaker
Tunisia’s parliament elected Ennahda leader Rached Ghannouchi as its speaker on Wednesday, one month after the moderate Islamist party finished first in last month's elections. Ghannouchi secured 123 out of 217 for his bid following a deal with the Qalb Tounes (Heart of Tunisia) party of media mogul and defeated presidential candidate Nabil Karoui. Qalb Tounes parliamentarian Samira Chaouachi was elected first vice speaker of the parliament. Ennahda now has until Friday to name its candidate for prime minister.
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Tunisian parties reject Islamist-led government
Tunisia’s main political parties on Thursday rejected a proposal to appoint a prime minister from the moderate Islamist party Ennahda, which finished first in the Oct. 6 parliamentary elections. The party won 52 out of 217 seats, well short of the required number to govern on its own. If Ennahda fails to form a Cabinet within two months, another party could be asked to try to form a government. Political deadlock risks undermining Tunisia’s efforts to improve the economy and fight terrorism.
Read More
reuters.com

Algeria court detains former culture minister on corruption charges
Algeria’s Supreme Court on Monday ordered the detention of former Minister of Culture Khalid Toumi on corruption charges. Toumi is accused of wasting public money and awarding illegal privileges. He joins a growing list of former officials and well-connected businessmen arrested in a crackdown on corruption following President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s resignation in April. Meanwhile, weekly anti-regime demonstrations continue, with Algerians demanding that the Dec. 12 presidential elections be delayed until more of the ruling elite steps down.
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reuters.com

Algeria announces five candidates for presidential election
Algeria’s election authority over the weekend announced the final list of candidates running in the Dec. 12 presidential elections. Five candidates, including three close to former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, made the cut. Meanwhile, the weekly anti-regime demonstrations that brought Bouteflika down in April continue despite his resignation, with Algerians demanding that elections be delayed until more of the ruling elite steps down.
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reuters.com

TUNISIA MUST GET OFF FOREIGN AID

Algeria releases the final list of candidates running in the Dec. 12 presidential elections.

New Tunisian president replaces foreign and defense ministers
Tunisia’s President Kais Saied approved on Tuesday the dismissal of the country’s foreign and defense ministers, less than a week after taking his oath. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed appointed, after consultation with the president, Karim Jamoussi as foreign minister and Sabri Bachtobji as defense minister. The changes come as parliament prepares to hold coalition talks. The moderate Islamist party Ennahda came in first in the country’s Oct. 6 parliamentary elections, winning 52 out of 217 seats — although it is well short of the required number of seats needed to govern.
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reuters.com

Tunisia's 'poker face' president sworn in
Tunisia's new president, whose stolid demeanor earned him the nickname "RoboCop," has vowed to combat corruption.

Tunisia swears in new president
Conservative jurist Kais Saied was sworn in as Tunisia’s new president on Wednesday after a landslide victory in this month’s election. In his oath of office before parliament, the 61-year-old vowed to fight corruption and shore up the freedoms gained in the years since the country's 2011 Arab Spring revolution. The Oct. 13 election marked a strong rebuke of Tunisia's political elites, with Saied and media mogul Nabil Karoui making it to the run-off by campaigning as outsiders.
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reuters.com

Kais Saied faces a fractured political landscape in Tunisia after win
Conservative Kais Saeid has won a landslide victory in Tunisia’s second round of the presidential elections.

AL-MONITOR: CAN TUNISIA GET A UNITY GOVERNMENT

Conservative jurist declared winner of Tunisian presidential election
Tunisia’s electoral commission announced Monday that a preliminary count shows conservative jurist Kais Saied won Sunday’s presidential election with almost 73% of the vote. His opponent, media mogul Nabil Karoui, conceded defeat earlier on Monday. The electoral commission said turnout stood at 55%. The election marked a strong rebuke of Tunisia's political elites, with both candidates who made it to the run-off campaigning as outsiders.
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MEI’s new book, Escaping the Conflict Trap: Toward Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East, co-edited by Salem and Harrison, is now available in paperback or for Kindle.

Tunisia: Presidential Candidate Released from Prison. Tunisian courts on Wednesday decided to release presidential candidate, Nabil Karoui, from prison. Karoui has been detained since August for allegations of money laundering and tax fraud, yet since managed to come in second in last month’s elections. The runoff is set to be held in four days. Africa News BBC Gulf News

Intel: Tunisia’s Islamic conservatives bounce back in parliamentary polls
Exit polls from Sunday's nationwide parliamentary elections suggest that the pro-Islamic Ennahda came in first, followed by the newly established Qalb Tounes, or Heart of Tunisia, led by jailed tycoon Nabil Karaoui, who will be in the Oct. 13 presidential runoff.

Moderate Islamist party claims victory in Tunisia parliamentary elections
Tunisia’s moderate Islamist party Ennahda won the most votes in Sunday’s parliamentary election, a party spokesman said, citing what he called preliminary results. Earlier on Sunday, jailed media magnate Nabil Karoui's Heart of Tunisia party also claimed victory. An exit poll by Sigma Conseil showed Ennahda in first place with 17.5% of votes and Heart of Tunisia in second place with 15.6%. Preliminary results will be announced on Oct. 10 and official results on Nov. 17.
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Tunisia’s electoral commission rejects jailed candidate's call to delay vote
Tunisia’s electoral commission on Wednesday rejected calls to postpone the presidential elections. The second round is scheduled for Oct. 13. The commission “can neither advance nor postpone the date of the elections under the constitution,” commission head Nabil Baffoun said. A spokesman for imprisoned candidate Nabil Karoui had called for suspending the elections as long as he remains in prison. Karoui, who owns Nessma TV channel, was detained Aug. 23 on suspicion of tax evasion and money laundering. The media mogul came in second in Tunisia’s election last month, behind conservative jurist Kais Saied.
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arabnews.com

Algeria arrests former ruling party chief
Algeria on Thursday announced the arrest of the leader of the National Liberation Front, which has ruled Algeria since independence in 1962. Mohamed Djemai is accused of “destroying official files and documents.” Authorities are simultaneously cracking down on protesters demanding that more figures linked to the former regime of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika step down. Fodil Boumala, a prominent opposition activist and anti-government protester, was arrested Wednesday, fellow activists and a lawyer said on Thursday. Meanwhile, weekly street protests now face a clampdown after army chief of staff Ahmed Gaed Saleh issued orders this week to stop outside protesters from entering the capital.
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reuters.com

Deposed Tunisian president dies in Saudi exile
Former Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali died in exile Thursday, days after Tunisia held its second presidential elections since his ouster ushered in democratic governance. The 83-year-old had been living in Saudi Arabia since the 2011 popular uprising that began the Arab Spring. In the elections, the conservative law professor Kais Saied and the imprisoned media mogul Nabil Karoui have advanced to the second round of the presidential elections, marking a sharp rejection of the country’s political establishment. Read More 

Tunisian presidential finalist remains in prison
A Tunisian court is refusing to release Nabil Karoui from prison even after he advanced to the second round of the presidential elections, his lawyer said Wednesday. The media mogul is under investigation in a money laundering probe. Karoui came in second in Sunday's election, behind conservative jurist Kais Saied. Read More 

Political outsiders win first round in Tunisia’s presidential elections
Tunisia’s electoral commission announced Tuesday that conservative law professor Kais Saied and imprisoned media mogul Nabil Karoui will advance to the second round of the presidential elections, likely to be held next month. Saied, who ran as an independent, won 18.4% of the votes in Sunday’s election. Karoui, who is under investigation in a money laundering probe, took 15.6%. The results mark a sharp rejection of the country’s political establishment. Read More

Imposition of election date signals end to government patience
Algerians protested the decision to hold elections in December as their demands are left unmet and many activists and opposition members linger in jail.

ISRAEL: THE DEAD LOCK

9/18/2019

What's next for Netanyahu?
Although Benjamin Netanyahu failed to form a governing coalition, it doesn't mean he's out of the game just yet.

Netanyahu rival rejects latest proposal for unity government
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu extended Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz a new proposal to join a unity government on Thursday but was rebuffed as time runs out for the Israeli leader. The proposed government would have included Netanyahu’s Likud party and its allies on the religious right. Gantz dismissed the offer, saying Netanyahu “is not seeking unity but immunity” ahead of his possible indictment in three criminal cases. Netanyahu has until next Thursday, Oct. 24, to form a government before President Reuven Rivlin tasks Gantz to try to form a government. Gantz's party came in first in last month's Knesset elections, winning 33 seats to the Likud's 32.
Read More
timesofisrael.com

Netanyahu, not Israel, needs unity government to survive
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is misleading the people when he claims that only a unity government would be apt to tackle the Iran threat.

Liberman’s secular campaign turns him into kingmaker
Many right and center-left voters liked what Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman offered them in the last election campaign: a secular unity government that would end religious coercion.

Israel swears in new Knesset without a government
Israel swears in a new Knesset today even as the country struggles to form a new government. Almost all of the members of the previous Knesset, which lasted just five months, will be returning, as only 17 of 120 lawmakers were freshly elected in September’s vote. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman this morning as Netanyahu tries to convince Liberman and his secular nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party to join him in a coalition government. The meeting was planned after unity government talks between Netanyahu's Likud and its main rival, the Blue and White party of Benny Gantz, ended without result.
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timesofisrael.com

Israel is quickly running out of time to form a new government and avoid an unprecedented third election within a year as the judicial noose tightens around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The pre-indictment hearing in three graft cases against the Israeli leader resumes Sunday following two days of testimony this week. Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit has agreed to space out the four-day hearing over two weeks, fixing Yom Kippur, Oct. 9, as the deadline to wrap up the process. Netanyahu’s legal team has so far presented its arguments in the most serious case, in which the prime minister is accused of taking bribes from telecom tycoon Shaul Elovich. On Sunday and Monday, his lawyers will address allegations that Netanyahu accepted cigars, jewelry and other illegal gifts from businessmen as well as separate charges that he backed legislation benefiting Israeli press group Yedioth Aharonot in exchange for promises of favorable coverage.

Netanyahu himself did not attend last week’s hearing as his Likud party focused on advancing coalition talks. With talks with the Likud’s main rival, the centrist Blue and White party, at a standstill, Netanyahu has been courting the secular nationalist Yisrael Beitenu of former Defense Secretary Avigdor Liberman. Liberman’s party said on Wednesday that if Likud and Blue and White fail to reach a power-sharing agreement by Yom Kippur, it would present its own offer for a unity government. Liberman has so far declined to back either candidate for the mission of forming the next government, insisting that he would support only a secular unity government, without the ultra-Orthodox parties. It is now widely believed that Netanyahu will hand back to President Reuven Rivlin the mandate for forming a new government before the 28-day deadline expires and push for new elections.

Despite Political Uncertainty, Israel’s Security Posture Remains Strong
Jacob Nagel | Visiting Fellow

Intel: Why Israel’s president chose Netanyahu to form new government
A week after Israel’s legislative elections, President Reuven Rivlin has chosen Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a first attempt at forming a government, but a path to a majority coalition remains difficult.

Netanyahu juggles high-stakes politics and fraud charges
This coming week will prove crucial for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he tries to assemble a government while facing a likely indictment on fraud charges. The Israeli leader has been summoned by Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit for a pre-indictment hearing on corruption charges starting Wednesday. The two-day hearing offers Netanyahu the chance to plead his case and to convince Mandelblit to cancel impending indictments against him, or at least reduce the charges. At the moment, Netanyahu is expected to be charged for fraud and breach of trust in two cases and of receiving bribes in a third one. Netanyahu remains defiant and asked that the proceedings be aired live so he can tell the public “my side,” but Mandelblit’s office turned him down.
Meanwhile, representatives of Netanyahu’s Likud and its main rival, the Blue and White party, continue negotiations on forming a national unity government following inconclusive elections earlier this month. The Blue and White party has rejected a proposal from President Reuven Rivlin for a power-sharing deal. Rivlin has also proposed amending the law to create the status of “interim prime minister” for Blue and White leader Benny Gantz in case Netanyahu is indicted. The party’s leadership reiterated in recent days its electoral commitment not to form a government with Netanyahu.

Nevertheless, the two parties are pursuing talks following Rivlin’s decision to give Netanyahu the first shot at trying to put a new government together. Netanyahu himself has acknowledged that in the current deadlocked situation, chances are slim for the establishment of a majority coalition. Talks will be suspended Sunday through Tuesday for the Jewish New Year, resuming on Wednesday. Netanyahu has 28 days to negotiate a majority coalition, but the president can accord him a two-week extension. After that, Rivlin may task another candidate with the mission. The political stalemate, however, could also force a third election in less than a year.

In Israel's Vote, Bibi Looms as the Key Issue
By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | September 17, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/in-israels-vote-bibi-looms-as-the-key-issue/90833/
TEL AVIV -- Left or right? War or diplomacy? Socialism or free-market economy? Tuesday's election here is about none of these. It's about Bibi.

Israel's politics nowadays seem almost as crazy as Britain's, but unlike the Mother of Parliaments, which can't sort out London's relationship with Brussels, the Knesset's biggest issue was merely to decide whether to keep or oust Benjamin Netanyahu -- the leader who this summer became the country's longest-serving prime minister. Its inability to settle that triggered a new election.
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Netanyahu down but not out
Despite the disappointing numbers emerging from Israel's election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is telling his supporters that he is not done yet and that he intends to fight.

Netanyahu calls for unity government amid electoral deadlock
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today called on his rival Benny Gantz of the Blue and White party to join him in a unity government to avoid a possible third vote in a row. Gantz, however, has previously refused to govern alongside Netanyahu, who is under investigation in three corruption probes. With nearly all votes counted in Tuesday's election, the Likud has won 31 Knesset seats while its rival Blue and White party has 33. A majority of 61 out of 120 seats are needed to form a government. The tight race leaves the secular nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party of former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, who refuses to sit with Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox allies, as the apparent kingmaker with eight seats. Meanwhile, the predominantly Arab Joint List, with 13 seats, has yet to decide whether to back Gantz.

Netanyahu's remarks come a day after he canceled his trip to the UN General Assembly after his Likud party and its allies failed to garner enough votes to form a government. Foreign Minister Israel Katz will address the world body in New York instead. Read More 

Israeli parties deadlocked after Tuesday's vote
The electoral blocs centered around Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and its rival Blue and White party both failed to reach a majority of 61 Knesset seats in Tuesday's do-over election, according to preliminary results. That leaves Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beitenu party as kingmaker with nine seats. Liberman, a former minister of defense, has called for a “national, liberal, broad” unity government including his party, the Likud and Blue and White while rejecting the participation of Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox allies.
Addressing his supporters early his morning, Netanyahu did not concede defeat or claim victory but promised to seek the formation of a new "Zionist" government that excludes Arab parties. President Reuven Rivlin said Tuesday that he will press party leaders to quickly form a new government. Rivlin's office said that his nomination of a candidate to form the next government would be guided in part by the need to avoid a third election, after two votes in five months.
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Israel's Election IronyGuess Who Could Emerge in a Pivotal Role?
Editorial of The New York Sun | September 17, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/israels-election-irony/90836

Israel: Election Results Split. A day after their second dead-heat election in five months, Israelis awoke Wednesday with their two main parties jockeying for the support of the smaller factions they will need to form a governing coalition. Official election results released on Wednesday after 91 percent of the vote was counted show that neither of the party has a clear path to securing a majority in the Knesset. The negotiations after April’s election ended in stalemate. Haaretz The Washington Post

Israel-Palestine Peace Is Possible
by Daniel Kurtzer via The Caravan
Protracted conflicts are protracted for a reason. They involve deeply-held grievances; ethnic, religious or ideological animosities; territorial disputes; boundary issues; political power struggles; clashes over the distribution of wealth; and competing narratives; among other factors. Protracted conflicts are not static, but rather evolve over time. Conflict management and mitigation, a strategy for dealing with conflicts that appear impervious to resolution, miss the point; for these strategies often do not take into account evolving changes through which conflicts pass.

How To Think About Israeli-Palestinian Peace
by Dennis Ross via The Caravan
I have worked on trying to resolve or ameliorate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in formal and informal capacities since the 1980’s. Through two intifadas (uprisings) and the Oslo process, I have seen the conflict in its human terms and the toll it takes. There were certainly times in the 1990’s when it seemed to be possible to settle the conflict. Even after the Second Intifada, which imposed such a terrible price on both Israelis and Palestinians, I believed that the gaps between the two sides were bridgeable.

WHY DOES PAKISTAN FLIRT WITH ISRAEL; EMERGENT INDIGENOUS LEADERSHIP IN AFGHANISTAN, AL-QAEDA LEADERSHIP ISN'T HEALTHY ANYMORE & A LOOK AT THE MIDDLE EAST QUARTERLY

8/25/2019

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
Taliban’s Prime Objectives:
U.S. Withdrawal, ‘Establishment of an Islamic Government’
By Bill Roggio, FDD's Long War Journal: “The Taliban reiterated that its prime objectives in negotiations with the U.S. is to get Coalition forces to withdrawal from Afghanistan and the “establishment of an Islamic government,” a thinly veiled reference to the return of the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan."

PAKISTAN'S POLITICAL ECONOMY

It’s really hard to buy peace in Afghanistan
(Defense One) Western leaders looking to replace troops with targeted aid may find it counterproductive.

Ahmad Katawazai writes: It would be wise for the Taliban to engage into an intra-Afghan dialogue to orchestrate a workable broad-based government preserving the gains that have been made. As Ghani and Trump both pointed out, there can be no peace without a truce or ceasefire. Taliban should consider that as a precondition for the resumption of peace talks. – Washington Examiner

David Tafuri writes: President Trump and Democratic candidates should realize that exit from Afghanistan at all costs is too costly. Trump should pursue a deal to draw the Taliban into a political process and encourage them to cut ties with terrorist groups. A complete withdrawal of NATO forces can only be ordered when we are certain that Afghanistan will not revert back to a terrorist state without them. – The Hill

KHAN'S REPORT CARD 13 MONTHS IN

HOW DOES PAKISTAN ENVISION ITS FUTURE

Pakistan Flirts with a Strong Israel by Efraim Inbar
Haaretz
September 7, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59332/pakistani-interest-in-normalization-with-israel

ASIA TIMES: ISLAMABAD & JERUSALEM JOIN HANDS

The U.S.-Taliban Negotiations: A Deadly Qatari Trap by Yigal Carmon

EMERGENCE OF OTHER POLITICAL LEADERSHIP IN AFGHANISTAN

MEQ

The real risks of allowing terrorist safe havens
Hal Brands | Bloomberg
Do safe havens matter or not? The truth is that denying such sanctuaries is crucial to effective counterterrorism, so long as some key caveats and distinctions are kept in mind

Don’t Sign a Death Warrant for Afghan Democracy by Ioannis Koskinas

Stakes in Afghanistan Demand Transparency
Bradley Bowman | CMPP Senior Director
Bill Roggio | Senior Fellow and Editor of FDD's Long War Journal

Remembering why we are at war in Afghanistan
(Military Times) As we close in on two decades of war in Afghanistan and search for an end to the conflict, perhaps we ought first to go back to its origins and recognize a fundamental truth.

Alternative Futures: Assessment of the Afghanistan Bureau 2001-2021
By Michael Barr, Divergent Options: "This assessment paper provides an alternative history and therefore an alternative future to U.S. actions in Afghanistan following the 9/11 attacks. This paper is written from the point of view of a staff officer providing an overview of U.S. efforts in Afghanistan from 2001-2021 to an incoming political appointee in the Department of Defense."

AL-SISI MUST TAKE ON THE BROTHERHOOD; HOW CHINA UNDERWRITES EGYPT: CHINA'S ONE-BELT-ONE-ROAD HITS THE MIDDLE EAST AUTOCRATS

8/21/2019

The Muslim Brotherhood Must Be Confronted by Tawfik Hamid

Will There Be a New Russian-Chinese Security Architecture in the Gulf?
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, September 13, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Russia, backed by China, is hoping to exploit mounting doubts in the Persian Gulf about the reliability of the US as the region’s sole security guarantor. It is proposing a radical overhaul of the security architecture in the area, which is home to massive oil and gas reserves and some of the world’s most strategic waterways.
Continue to full article ->

Egypt sentences Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader to life in prison
Egypt on Wednesday handed down prison sentences against leaders of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, charging them with spying for foreign organizations and financing terrorism. The court sentenced 11 people, including Muslim Brotherhood spiritual guide Mohammed Badie, to life in prison. Five others received jail terms ranging from seven to 10 years. Egyptian authorities have been leading a crackdown against thousands of Muslim Brotherhood supporters since the ouster of the late President Mohammed Morsi in 2013. Read More
middleeasteye.net

Haisam Hassanein writes: China has become an essential component of Sisi’s agenda at home and abroad. Without its financing and expertise, showpiece projects like the new administrative capital and a new Suez Canal industrial zone are unlikely to get off the ground. In return, China wants to take advantage of Egypt’s position in the Arab world and Africa to facilitate bilateral and collective cooperation in both regions, including on projects that further the BRI. All of this should worry the United States, especially since China could use its access to Egyptian ports to improve its standing in the Middle East and potentially gather intelligence on U.S. interests, similar to Washington’s concerns about Israel’s Haifa port. – Washington Institute

Michael Bennon writes: At this year’s BRI forum, Chinese officials stated that they would push for more transparency in BRI projects. This is laudable. But transparency in international finance should not be subject only to the bilateral policies of lending nations. It should also be enforced by international institutions, like the IMF. The IMF did miss an opportunity in Pakistan this summer, but it wasn’t to prevent or ring-fence a bailout. The IMF should have simply required transparency in the form of published contracts as a precondition for IMF support. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Egypt seeks to increase exports to Africa
Despite figures indicating an increase in the Egyptian exports to Africa, there still seem to be several obstacles facing Egyptian exports to the continent.

NETANYAHU IS MORE JABOTINSKY THAN BEN GURION

8/19/2019

Netanyahu: More a Jabotinsky than a Begin or a Ben-Gurion
By Dr. Gil Samsonov, August 18, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In favoring the political over the military approach, Benjamin Netanyahu is the direct successor of Ze’ev Jabotinsky, who espoused the political Zionism of forging an alliance with a world power. Netanyahu’s outlook is evident in his conflict management strategy vis-à-vis the PLO, Hamas, and Hezbollah while focusing on fighting Israel’s foremost enemy, Iran. Even there Netanyahu has preferred the path of political struggle, in cooperation with the US, and the use of sanctions over war.
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Comparing Netanyahu and Ben-Gurion
By Prof. Shmuel Sandler, August 30, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In a recent landmark, Benjamin Netanyahu became Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, surpassing the tenure of David Ben-Gurion. A comparison of the two PMs’ leadership reveals points of both similarity and difference. Both leaders, even in the views of their opponents, left a major impact on the country and the society.
Continue to full article ->

Israel Meets With UAE, Declares It’s Joining Persian Gulf Coalition
Foreign Minister Israel Katz told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee about the agreement, and told lawmakers that Israel participates in intelligence and other areas where it can offer capabilities and advantages.

THE FUTURE STRUCTURE OF THE YEMENI STATE, 40 YEARS OF IRANIAN WAR ON US, IRAN'S COLLAPSING ECONOMY & WHY IRAN WANTS PRESIDENT BIDEN

8/10/2019

Islamist-inspired Terrorism Returns to Yemen by Con Coughlin

Yemen government begins indirect talks with separatists
Yemen’s internationally recognized government and separatist forces started indirect talks in the Saudi city of Jeddah on Wednesday to discuss ways to end their conflict in southern Yemen. The separatists, backed by the United Arab Emirates, seized control of the temporary capital Aden last month, threatening to unravel the Arab coalition fighting the Iran-backed Houthis. “The situation is very difficult and complicated but we hope to achieve some progress,” a senior Yemeni official said. Attempts at solving the rift have previously failed, with President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi’s government refusing to meet with the separatists unless they hand over the positions they have seized in southern Yemen. Read More 

The Future Structure of the Yemeni State
Profound questions about Yemen's future remain unanswered, and before negotiations can move forward the rival parties will likely need to address the elephant in the room: the future structure of Yemen as a state.
Read report

Forty Years of Iranian Intolerance
by Denis MacEoin

THE GREAT GAME RE-VISITED, US TURNS AWAY FROM SOUTH WEST ASIA; GRAND STRATEGY OF THE TALIBAN

7/26/2019

Pakistani Prime Ministers, in two different types of confinementIn Pakistan, a former Prime Minister sits angry and brooding in jail while the current one sits cornered and trapped by a failing economy; India’s move in Kashmir and an opposition that refuses to be silenced

Sitting behind bars in Kot Lakhpat Jail in Lahore, Nawaz Sharif, businessman, politician and former Prime Minister of Pakistan, is fighting the toughest battle of his life against the country’s security establishment, writes Imad Zafar.

But, says Zafar, the same can be said for Pakistan’s establishment, which is facing the most difficult challenges of its 70 years of hegemony.

The Pakistani establishment, which is trying hard to end the country’s diplomatic isolation while facing multiple other challenges – including India’s move to annex Kashmir, a shrinking economy and rampant inflation – wants to cut a deal with Sharif.

Sharif gets released from jail but agrees to then go into exile in London.

But Sharif, writes Zafar, has indicated he intends to stay in Pakistan and instead wants certain members of the establishment and the judiciary to confess publicly that they ousted him from power deliberately and rigged the ballot to keep him out of office.

‘Probably Khan and a few people from the security establishment will come hard at Sharif in a bid to regain the lost battle, but it is too late,’ argues Zafar. ‘If Sharif did not surrender in the toughest of times, he will never do it now when the writing is clearly on the wall that it is all over for Imran Khan and his backers in the establishment.’

Ali Salman Andani says it in far stronger terms. Pakistan, says Andani, after the completion of Imran Khan’s first year in power, 'is standing on the brink of an economic collapse.' And Khan, says Andani, must think that putting 'the entire opposition behind bars will be enough to hide his incompetence, ignorance and highly authoritarian mindset.’

Sagarneel Sinha writes here that Kashmir is an issue that Khan will try to use to ‘boost his own image after his failure to implement the dreams of "Naya Pakistan" (New Pakistan) that he sold before last year’s election.’

Sinha argues that Kashir has been an emotional issue for Pakistanis and ‘their governments over the years have milked this issue to divert the attention of the public from internal issues and turn them against "anti-Muslim Hindu-supremacist India.” The present approach of Imran Khan is no different.’

But despite the emotional rhetoric, Sinha says Imran Khan should already know the truth.
‘India under his friend Modi,’ writes Sinha, ‘has checkmated Pakistan on Kashmir. However, Khan has no other option but to make as much noise as possible on the issue of Kashmir. This, concludes Sinha, is because he ‘doesn’t want to become another Nawaz Sharif.’

Read the full stories on Asia Times
Pakistani establishment facing historic challenge by Imad Zafar
Occupant of Pakistan’s Prime Minister House is a tyrant by Ali Salman Andani
Imran stressing Kashmir to save his own position by Sagarneel Sinha

The Afghanistan war is over, and Pakistan has won Michael Rubin | The National Interest

KHAN IS LOSING PAKISTAN

HOW KHAN IS LOSING PAKISTAN

WHAT OF INDIAN FEDERALISM

Pakistan’s Kashmir hypocrisy
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner
Pakistan has little authority to complain about India’s decision to change Kashmir’s status.

ASIA TIMES: HOW INDIA'S MOVE ON KASHMIR DAMAGES THE DEEP STATE IN PAKISTAN

MOSCOW & ISLAMABAD REIGNITE RELATIONS OVER KASHMIR

HOW INDIA FITS INTO US SECURITY ARCHITECTURE

The Great Game Reinvigorated:
Geopolitics, Afghanistan, and the Importance of Pakistan
By Mark Gilchrist, Strategy Bridge: "As a peace agreement in Afghanistan becomes increasingly plausible it is important for America to focus on maximising long-term interests to retain a position of relative advantage and enduring influence in the region after the Afghan mission is complete."

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
As U.S. Presses Negotiations, Taliban Promotes Training of Fighters and Attacks
By Bill Roggio, FDD's Long War Journal: "In the Taliban’s latest video, which was released today on its official Website, Voice of Jihad, the group shows its fighters training for war as well as a montage of attacks on Afghan and Coalition forces."

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/07/un-islamic-state-replaced-leader-in-afghanistan-after-visit-from-central-leadership.php

The (Other) Continent We Can’t Defend
By Elizabeth Buchanan, the interpreter: "China has no real incentive to practice restraint on a continent it invests billions in (from technical expertise, personnel training, to new icebreakers) and on which it recognises no territorial claims."

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/07/taliban-ied-blast-kills-35-civilians-in-western-afghanistan.php

Net Assessment: Explaining Mission Creep in Afghanistan
by Rick Berger, Bryan McGrath, and Christopher Preble

ASIA TIMES: AFGHAN TALKS

THE STATE OF PAKISTAN'S POLITICAL ECONOMY

China’s chump: Why America can’t trust Pakistan
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

Afghanistan peace talks: U.S. pushes toward “face-saving way out"
(Axios) The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and the Taliban are a “charade” designed simply to provide the U.S. a “face-saving way out of Afghanistan,” former CIA deputy director Michael Morell tells Axios.

Pakistan wants to create a self-reliant, self-sustained defense industry
(Defense News) The Pakistani government is promoting aims to increase public-private cooperation and develop a self-reliant, self-sustained defense industry. But the private sector is skeptical.

ASIA TIMES: PAKISTAN'S ECONOMY, THE TURNAROUND?

Afghanistan, Counterinsurgency, And The Indirect Approach
mentioning Thomas H. Henriksen via Readings
In exploring Counterinsurgency and the Indirect Approach, Dr. Thomas Henriksen assesses several cases where the United States has employed an Indirect Approach toward achieving strategic objectives, and he suggests where this concept has landed short of expectations.

Anthony H. Cordesman writes: Much of the analysis of these three options has focused on the possible terms of the peace, the immediate progress in the fighting, and/or the coming Afghan election and Afghanistan’s immediate political problems. These are all important issues, but they do not address the basic problems in Afghan security forces that will limit its military capabilities indefinitely into the future, or the scale of the civil problems in Afghanistan that have given it failed governance and made it the equivalent of a failed sate, and that will shape its future in actually implementing any peace or in attempting to continue the war. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Islamic State has been battered in Iraq and Syria and declared defeated by President Donald Trump. But the terrorist group and its predecessor, al-Qaeda, are finding ample room to rebuild in other places with weak central governments, officials and analysts warn. – Bloomberg

JAILED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BEGINS HUNGER STRIKE, TUNISIAN PRESIDENT DIES & ALGERIA REJECTS TALKS WITH PROTEST MOVEMENT

7/26/2019

Jailed Tunisian presidential candidate begins hunger strike
Nabil Karoui, who is seen as a top candidate in Tunisia’s presidential elections, has started a hunger strike in prison, his lawyer said on Thursday. Karoui, who owns Nessma TV channel, was detained on Aug. 23 on suspicion of tax evasion and money laundering. “Karoui started an open-ended hunger strike on Wednesday to demand his right to vote on Sunday,” lawyer Ridha Belhadj said.
Separately, ousted President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was hospitalized for a “health crisis,” his lawyer said. Ben Ali has been living in exile in Saudi Arabia since the 2011 popular uprising in Tunisia that began the Arab Spring. Read More 

Algeria army chief calls for elections by the end of the year
Algeria’s army chief, Gen. Ahmed Gaid Salah, on Monday called for presidential elections later this year as protests continue despite the resignation of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Saleh said the electoral commission will “issue a call on Sept. 15,” setting up elections for December. Bouteflika stepped down in April after weeks of protests against his bid for a fifth term. New elections had been scheduled for July, but were postponed in the absence of candidates. Read More

Tunisia: Court Upholds Presidential Candidate’s Imprisonment. An appeals court on Tuesday upheld the detention of media magnate Nabil Karoui, a candidate in this month’s presidential election, on suspicion of tax fraud and money laundering. Karoui has denied the allegations, while the electoral commission has kept him on the ballot ahead of the September 15 election. The president is responsible for foreign and defense policy, while most decisionmaking powers rest with a prime minister who is chosen by parliament. A parliamentary election will also take place on October 6. Middle East Eye Al Arabiya

Seven keys to understanding the Tunisian election
On September 15 Tunisia will hold a presidential election brought forward two months by the unexpected death of patriarchal President Beji Caid Essebsi. Here are seven keys to understanding the campaigns and what Tunisians are looking for in candidates.
Read article

Conflicts surface with Tunisia’s Ennahda
The last-minute decision of Ennahda leader Rachid Ghannouchi to run in this year’s legislative elections in Tunisia has ruffled feathers in the Islamist movement.

Tunisian president dies
Tunisia’s President Beji Caid Essebsi died on Wednesdays after he was hospitalized for the second time in less than a month. Essebsi has been a prominent figure in Tunisian politics since the 2011 overthrow of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The 92-year-old president had only appeared in public twice since his last hospitalization in June. Tunisia plans to hold presidential and parliamentary elections later this year. Read More 

Tunisian prime minister hosts Libyan counterpart in bid to temper violence
Tunisia’s Prime Minister Youssef Chahed hosted the head of Libya’s internationally recognized government, Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, in Tunis on Wednesday. Chahed stressed the need to reach a political solution to the violence between Sarraj’s government and Khalifa Hifter, a warlord backing Libya’s eastern government. Hifter has been leading an offensive against Sarraj’s government in Tripoli since April. Read More 

Algeria army chief rejects protesters' demands for talks
Algeria’s army chief, Gen. Ahmed Gaid Salah, on Tuesday rejected preconditions by protesters for talks to end the political crisis. “There is no more time to lose,” Salah said in a televised speech, stressing the need to hold a dialogue without any conditions. Protests in Algeria continue despite the resignation of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika as Algerians seek a transition to democracy and the trial of regime figures. They are also demanding the release of people arrested in connection with the demonstrations and an end to the censorship of their movement before holding any dialogue that would pave the way for presidential elections. Read More 

Algeria court orders arrest of opposition figure
An Algerian court on Thursday ordered the detention of a prominent opposition figure as part of an anti-graft investigation. Karim Tabou is accused of “contributing to weakening the army’s morale.” The order is the latest in a series of arrests against figures linked to the former regime of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and opposition leaders. Read More
reuters.com

INDIA'S VANISHING NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS & EXAMINING GOOD GOVERNANCE IN ISLAMIC SOCIETIES (TALIBAN)

7/24/2019

ASIA TIMES

THE AMERICAN PROXY FOR CHINA REMAINS INDIA

ISLAM & GOOD GOVERNANCE

ASIA TIMES: INDIA'S COMMUNIAL VIOLENCE

TUNISIA'S POLITICAL ECONOMY STILL HURTS AFTER THE ARAB SPRING & REIGNING IN IRANIAN MILITIAS IN IRAQ REMAINS DIFFICULT

7/24/2019

Tunisia clears 26 candidates for presidential election
Tunisia’s electoral commission on Wednesday approved 26 candidates for next month’s presidential election. The body rejected 71 other applicants. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed and former interim President Moncef Marzouki are in the running, as well as Defense Minister Abdelkarim Zbidi and Abdel Fattah Mourou, the vice president of moderate Islamist party Ennahda. The election was initially slated for November but was bumped up to Sept. 15 following President Beji Caid Essebsi’s death last month. Read More

ASIA TIMES

Tunisia Islamist party fields first presidential candidate
Tunisia’s moderate Islamist party on Tuesday nominated its vice president, Abdel Fattah Mourou, to run in the country’s upcoming presidential elections. This is the first time Ennahda, the country's largest political movement, has fielded a presidential nominee since the 2011 revolution. Elections were initially slated for November but were bumped up to September following President Beji Caid Essebsi’s death last week. Former interim President Moncef Marzouki also announced his intention to run on Tuesday. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed is also a candidate. Read More

Reining in Iraq’s militias will take more than an executive order
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

NETANYAHU'S CHALLENGERS FAIL: ISRAELI POLL FINDS ARMY TIMID & WHY THE SAUDI'S NEED A WAKE UP CALL

7/24/2019

Blue and White dumps ultra-Orthodox; tries to make up with secularists
Two weeks ahead of elections on Sept. 17, Blue and White has changed its strategy to regain and broaden support among secularists after realizing it has been 'hemorrhaging votes,' mainly to Avigdor Liberman.

Israel’s state watchdog stands guard for Netanyahu
Instead of objectively evaluating the policies and ethics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, new State Comptroller Matanyahu Engelman is protecting the premier’s interests.

Israel's Strategic Goal in Syria
By Yaakov Lappin, August 8, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel’s shadow war in Syria is based on the strategic objective of convincing the Islamic Republic that its investment in a war machine is going to waste. Iran has so far chosen to weather the strikes and shift tactics without abandoning its Syria project.
Continue to full article ->

Israel's electoral threshold: A matchmaker for marriages of convenience
The four-Knesset-seat threshold has forced several parties to form alliances despite starkly contrasting ideological differences between them.

To Win On Iran, Trump Should Take A Page From Reagan's Diplomatic Playbook
by Abbas Milani via The Hill
A perilous impasse exists between the Trump administration’s strident policy of “maximum pressure” and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s no less strident policy of “no negotiation” with the United States. One way out of this fraught situation is a policy that appears to be a lose-lose for both sides but, in reality, is a win-win for all sides.

Why Iran Will Never Give Up On Nuclear Weapons
by Josef Joffe via The American Interest
This week, Donald Trump repeated an American mantra: “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.” But in due time it will, because it can, and because it has long seen the Bomb to be in its national interest. But is there an upside?

What the Smuggled Archive Tells Us About Iran's Nuclear Weapons Project
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, July 22, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: As an apparent act of defiance against Western countries’ reluctance to support it against US sanctions, Iran has begun to enrich uranium beyond the level permitted by the nuclear deal. This fact, together with the information revealed by the smuggling out by the Israelis of Iran’s nuclear weapons program archive, belies Tehran’s oft-expressed claim that its nuclear program was always for peaceful use and shows the hollowness of the nuclear agreement.
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Poll: Israelis Find the Security Establishment "Too Timid" by Daniel Pipes
Jerusalem Post
July 23, 2019
http://www.danielpipes.org/18963/poll-israelis-find-the-security-establishment-too

US Saudi Arabia Policy Needs a Dose of Realpolitik by A.J. Caschetta
The Hill
July 20, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58996/us-saudi-arabia-policy-needs-a-dose-of-realpolitik

US troops return to Saudi Arabia after 16 years
US troops are returning to Saudi Arabia for the first time in 16 years as tensions with Iran rise and the kingdom finds itself increasingly isolated in Yemen.

KHAN SHOWS UP IN D.C., AL-QAEDA'S BIG PLANS FOR CENTRAL-SOUTH ASIA & PAKISTAN'S DEEP STATE PUPPETS MOVE ON

7/22/2019

THE POLITICAL REFORM OF PAKISTAN MOVES RIGHT

ASIA TIMES

KHAN'S ROLE IN MEDIATION FOR D.C. IN KABUL

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/07/al-qaeda-leader-threatens-india-criticizes-pakistan-in-message-on-kashmir.php

INDIA'S BUDGET ISN'T SERIOUS ABOUT ECONOMIC GROWTH

7/13/2019

ASIA TIMES

AFRICA'S POST COLONIAL ERA ENDING
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AFRICAN ARAB SPRING

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HOW TO WIN WORLD WAR IV

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE LONG WAR

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