Israel ‘alone in fight’ against Iran in Syria Although Netanyahu failed to convince Trump to back down on his decision to withdraw US forces from Syria, it won’t change Israel’s policy on Syria. | The Syrian Great Gameby Reuel Marc Gerecht via Defining Ideas Iran, Russia, and the Alawite regime of Bashar al-Assad are invested in winning. Is the United States? |
- “The U.S. has strategic interests in Syria, primarily to counter the threat to its allies Israel, Turkey, Jordan and the Gulf States by Iran and the Assad regime enabled by Russian President Vladimir Putin. But the 2,000 U.S. combat troops in northeastern Syria are marginal to those interests and to some degree, contradict them. Their counter-ISIS mission has evolved into a perpetual deployment machine similar to Afghanistan but with less purpose.”
- “Mission 1. Combat—Serious action to seize / hold territory and defeat a foe. In Syria, CENTCOM’s ‘Mission 1’ is to ‘destroy’ ISIS. But does that mean as a state and army, already accomplished, or all remnants?”
- “Mission 2. Nation building /’stability ops’ missions designed to transform some population's mindset and improve their lot in ways conducive to U.S. goals. This is inevitably a long term, no ‘end game’ mission which the military either executes, or supports the State Department or local partners in doing. CENTCOM commander Votel rolled out just such a ‘Mission 3’ concept for northeastern Syria in his April 3 U.S. Institute for Peace remarks. Iraq and Afghanistan are both examples—and cautionary tales—of our experience with such missions.“
- “Mission 3. Presence/show of force/potential project power platform missions to shape political or military developments. Examples include the U.S. Army Sinai presence mission, and the U.S. Navy’s patrols in the Gulf. In Syria, such a mission would be to hold territory, control airspace and at least threaten a revitalized insurgency against Syrian dictator Assad, all to shape Russian and Iranian decisions. Administration officials keep citing this mission but have not turned it into an executable plan.”
(Asia Times) Russia is the biggest geopolitical winner, and US deployment of financial power to pressure Moscow is likely to backfire in the long run
By William Courtney, RealClearDefense: “The Skripal poisoning and shrill Kremlin denials of asphyxiating gas attacks by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad raise doubts about Moscow’s commitment to the purposes of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). Russia is also violating the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Never has the future of negotiated arms control involving Russia been at greater risk.”
The Syrian military is preparing for possible missile strikes by relocating its air assets, US officials acknowledged Wednesday in the wake of unusually public threats from US President Donald Trump to retaliate for last weekend’s suspected chemical attack. The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also reported that regime forces were emptying airports and military air bases. And the Russian military said on Wednesday that it is tracking the movement of the US naval strike force expected to reach the Gulf in early May. Bouthaina Shaaban, an adviser to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, told Lebanese media on Wednesday that Damascus and Moscow are discussing options to respond. “Consultations are ongoing between the allies and they will not let matters progress as Washington wants,” she said. “The rules of engagement have changed in favor of Damascus.”
Meanwhile, the escalating threats of military action sparked a flurry of last-minute diplomacy even as White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said Wednesday that Trump has not set a timetable or made a final decision on military action. On Wednesday evening, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Trump spoke about the Douma gas attack, and Russian parliamentary officials say Ankara is helping to mediate the situation between Washington and Moscow through NATO channels. The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin also spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and warned the Israeli leader not to take any action that could further destabilize Syria. Netanyahu replied that Israel will not allow Iran to establish a military presence in the country. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Theresa May summoned a Cabinet meeting today to discuss the possibility of Britain joining the US and France in a military response.
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- “Similar to what happened in the recent past, a strike aiming only at punishing Assad for yet another gas attack would not force him to change his bloody behavior toward the Syrian people…symbolic military strikes by the United States merely to send a message to the “Butcher of Damascus” have not alleviated the misery of the Syrian people or the barbarism of the regime.”
- “Despite Trump’s recent statement that he would pull the American military out of Syria ‘very soon,’ he has now committed himself to respond to Assad’s chemical attack on Douma. To maintain America’s credibility in the region, Assad’s removal from power seems the only option.”
- “The recent history of the Syrian civil war has shown beyond a shadow of a doubt that Assad is not willing to negotiate himself out of power or to include his people in the governing process. Destroying the country has been a palatable price for him if it guarantees his staying in power. Russia and Iran have helped him do just that.”