robert_mugabe_resigns_as_zimbabwe’s_president_-_the_washington_post.pdf |
9 October: Mugabe reshuffles his cabinet for the first time in two years.
- The president demoted Patrick Chinamasa, his finance minister, and a key supporter of Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa. Mr. Mnangagwa was seen by many as the front-runner in succession.
- The president dismissed or demoted several of Mr. Mnangagwa’s top supporters and weakened the vice-president’s political power by removing the vice-president’s cabinet portfolio as justice minister and removing him from his post.
- Mugabe reallocated key positions to political supporters of his wife, Grace, who was a member of the ruling party and had strong aspirations to succeed Mugabe of her own. The cabinet reshuffle signaled to Mugabe opponents that disloyalty and disobedience would not be tolerated. Mr. Mugabe also appeared to be positioning his wife to succeed him, against popular opinion.
- Ahead of the country’s August 2018 elections, Party officials intended the meeting to provide an opportunity for delegates to reaffirm their loyalty to the president, while pledging their support for Mr. Mugabe as the party’s leading candidate for 2018.
- Less than a month after the reshuffle, the president abruptly fired Mnangagwa, who had enjoyed strong support from the military. Mugabe stripped the former-vice president of his lifetime membership to the party
- He noted his displeasure with the in-fighting within the ruling party. Speaking to 90 top military officials and the state-run media, the Commander of the Zimbabwe Defense Forces (ZDF) acknowledged the “instability in Zanu-PF” and warned that when it came to “protecting our revolution” the military would “not hesitate to step in” if the recent purge and in-fighting did not cease.
- The General also asked for all members of the ZANU-PF party, including those dismissed by Mugabe week earlier, to be permitted to vote at the party’s special congress in December.
The military takes overIn the early morning of 15 November, under the orders of Gen. Chiwenga, the Zimbabwean military seized the state-controlled Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation and placed President Mugabe under house arrest. Army officials also detained several cabinet ministers who were aligned with a faction group within ZANU-PF and members of the Mugabe family.
In a televised statement, Major General Sibusiso Moyo stated that the day’s events were not a coup, but an intervention to “pacify a degenerating political, social and economic situation in our country, which if not addressed may result in violent conflict.” Despite lacking an official label, the military action triggered the armed forces to armored vehicles to roam around Harare, the capital city, and troops to guard key security points.
Two days later, Mugabe’s motorcade drove through the Harare without an army escort. This led many to believe that perhaps the former leader had some freedom to move about as he pleased. Later in the day, Mr. Mugabe met with Gen. Chiwengaalong with Roman Catholic officials and South African envoys to discuss the current political and economic state of the country.
The meeting also appeared to be an opportunity for Gen. Chiwenga to announce that the military had taken action to alleviate the political instability within the ruling party, but to officially reiterate that a coup never occurred. Official photos taken from the meeting showed Mugabe smiling and shaking hands with Gen. Chiwenga with no visible signs of distress.
Four scenarios for Zimbabwe's future: At this time, with no clear indications of an orderly succession, there are a few possible scenarios that can unfold, each with their associated risks.
Scenario 1: Mugabe refuses to resignThus far Robert Mugabe has not voluntarily stepped aside as president and leader of ZANU-PF and has said he will preside over the Party Congress in December. In the short run, this raises the risk of unrest, but Mugabe is very unlikely to serve another 5-year term.
Zimbabwean armed forces have stated that the military takeover was only meant to target certain “criminals” who were “causing social and economic suffering in the country.” They vowed to return the situation to normalcy once they accomplished their mission.
The recent talks between the military and the president have been confidential. It is widely suspected that military officials have put pressure on the president to step aside.
If, however, the military simply meant the takeover to be more symbolic — to send a forceful signal within the party to cease any perceived anti-democratic governing, then perhaps Mr. Mugabe has not been unseated. Alternatively, the armed forces could have put pressure on the president to resign in vain, but are unwilling to use violence to actually unseat the autocrat.
Whichever the case may be, Mr. Mugabe is likely testing how far he can go in retaining power. His actions in the past couple of months certainly showed that he was intent on doing so. He may also be buying himself time to negotiate a safe exit for himself and close associates, while preserving his family's assets. However, his actions are increasing the risks of unrest.
Even if he manages to cling on, given Mr. Mugabe's alleged poor health it is highly unlikely that the president could serve another full five-year term. This scenario would ultimately bring us back to the status quo — increased in-fighting within ZANU-PF in the battle to replace Mr. Mugabe.
Scenario 2: Mnangagwa succeeds MugabeDespite being recently fired, Emmerson Mnangagwa remains the likely successor to Robert Mugabe. Whether he can implement reform is another matter.
In the upcoming 2018 general elections, the former VP would have a good chance of victory. A Mnangagwa administration, democratically elected in free and fair elections, would in principle have the legitimacy and clout to implement the type of dramatic economic reform absent from the Mugabe era. Mnangagwa has an economic recovery plan, which involves re-engagement with international creditors and a reform package. However, there is a strong probability that the forces of inertia would prevail under his presidency, given that Mnangagwa is such an entrenched part of the establishment.
He has been a central figure of ZANU-PF for decades. This former head of the Central Intelligence Organization (CIO), or secret police, was rumored to be instrumental in the military takeover and it is no secret that Mnangagwa has wanted to replace Mugabe for some time. It may not be a stretch to envision a democratically elected Mnangagwa if the former VP rises from the coup’s ashes to position himself as the anti-Mugabe Dynasty, pro-democracy candidate. He has extensive political experience, support from Zimbabwe’s armed forces and enjoys widespread public support among Zimbabwe’s elite. At the very least, Mnangagwa currently faces almost no credible challengers.
Would Mnangagwa still have a chance at succession if Zimbabwe’s 2018 elections are rigged again? Would the ruling party favor a Mnangagwa presidency enough to sway votes his way? This will depend on whether the former VP can maintain popular support into next year, and stave off sustained civil unrest that is likely to arise should there be any perceived political suppression by the ruling party. In short, Mnangagwa's main task in the coming year will be to consolidate power, which will be a distraction from economic reform.
Scenario 3: A new challenger risesA new challenger could emerge from an opposition party and curtail any leading ZANU-PF member’s ambitions of continuing a majority rule.
The challenger would have a tremendous opportunity to take advantage of the ongoing division within the ruling party by distinguishing themselves from the chaos. Moreover, any new challenger could part ways with the ruling party’s policies and rescue Zimbabwe from economic turmoil should they choose to prioritize economic reform over political desires.
In April this year, leaders of the two main opposition parties, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and the National People’s Front, publicly formed an alliance to challenge Mugabe and ZANU-PF in the general election next year. The parties signed a pact in the capital city to challenge the 2018 election results. Over the decades, however, the main opposition parties have also been plagued by power plays and chronic in-fighting that have led many to question their ability to adequately challenge a party that has been ruling over Zimbabwe for 37 years.
Although an opposition challenger may be the breath of fresh air Zimbabwe needs to bring about dramatic reform, it is unlikely that any opposition party could unify and muster sufficient support in time for the general elections in 2018 - which in any case will be at high risk of manipulation.
Scenario 4: Grace Mugabe seizes power
Mr. Mugabe has positioned his wife - currently reported to be facing prosecution - to become the next leader of Zimbabwe. In the unlikely event that she won an election, she would face civil unrest and her government would likely fail to pursue much needed economic reform.In recent years, Grace moved from political obscurity to the top ranks of ZANU-PF in a relatively short period of time. She leads ZANU-PF’s Women’s League, which has publicly supported the idea of Mrs. Mugabe replacing Mnangagwa as the next VP. She also leads a splinter group of the ruling party, the so-called “Generation 40” faction (G40). This informal group markets itself as comprising younger and more educated members of the ZANU-PF party, and aims to replace the aging, less flexible members of the ruling party.
Despite apparently being detained during the coup alongside members of G40, Mrs. Mugabe cannot be entirely dismissed from the succession equation. Robert Mugabe may well attempt to negotiate her release as a condition of him stepping down, leaving her free to run in the 2018 elections should that option be on the cards.
In the highly unlikely event that Mrs. Mugabe did become president, widespread civil unrest would almost certainly ensue. Public polls indicate Zimbabweans have little desire to willingly accept a Mugabe dynasty. Many Zimbabweans perceive the first lady to be corrupt. Mrs. Mugabe, nicknamed “Gucci Grace,” has dominated local headlines over the years with her extravagant lifestyle, allegedly paid for by the embezzlement of the country’s assets. Thus, the first lady has very little popular support.
Economic outlook: Zimbabwe has struggled with an economic crisis for decades. Cash shortages, widespread corruption and food scarcity have plagued the country, while the Mugabe administration has done little to alleviate the emergency.
Following the 2018 elections, any successor of Mr. Mugabe could secure their political future by creating economic policies to adequately address Zimbabwe’s financial crisis. The new administration should specifically focus on high public spending and a growing foreign and domestic debt. The National Treasury could significantly curtail public spending by slashing extraordinarily high government salaries to reign in the fiscal deficit.
The country’s GDP growth is forecast to slightly improve absent any change in the current administration, but a newcomer could encourage policies to raise GDP levels to Zimbabwe’s full potential. Furthermore, Zimbabwe’s central bank could halt injecting any further liquidity into the market by limiting currency over-printing and preventing another episode of hyperinflation experienced more than a decade ago.
There is no argument that Robert Mugabe’s reign is coming to an end. Whether the end of his presidency has already occurred, or occurs in the very near feature, means little for long-term political risk. What matters most is if the Mugabe legacy continues. Whoever is next in line to become Zimbabwe’s next president will face the challenge of fixing damage done during the Mugabe years.
Key indicators to watch out for will be whether Mugabe clarifies his intentions in the next few days; whether quick action is taken to address corruption; whether Zimbabwe's political transition receives support from the international community; and whether the elections in 2018 are free and fair. This is the sequence of events that would give Zimbabwe the best chance at a brighter future. At present however, short-term chaos, and cosmetic changes to the status quo in the longer term, seem to be the most likely outcome.