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KEY POINTS
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has long thought of Belarus as a critical part of the broader "Russian world" and privileged sphere of influence.
- While the Zapad military drills could provide an opportunity to leave troops in Belarus, broader geostrategic tensions guarantee Moscow will retain the motivation and opportunity to possibly intervene in the future.
- Belarus' political and economic dance between East and West could prove unsustainable in the long term, threatening the stability of the Lukashenko regime and opening the door to Russian intervention under the guise of a "peacekeeping" operation.
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Belarus' susceptibility to Russian intervention
David R. Marples
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KEY POINTS
- Russia's overriding geostrategic goal in Belarus is to keep a stable, relatively pro-Russian regime in power. Therefore, the chances of a Russian military intervention in Belarus are low for the near future.
- Further unrest born of Belarus' increasingly difficult economic position between Europe and Russia challenges Belarussian President Lukashenko to either crackdown to appease Moscow or respond leniently to encourage engagement from the EU.
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Putin's staying powerLeon Aron | US News & World Report | July 17, 2017
Russia's new threat to Belarus and KazakhstanLeon Aron | InsideSources | October 17, 2016