Leon Aron | AEI
Russia's economic challenges, combined with diplomatic pressure applied by the US and its European allies, could make Moscow more inclined to accommodate the West. Or Russia could double down on its attempts at destabilization in its near abroad through direct and indirect military intervention and territorial conquest.
- “The Afrin campaign…complicates the extremely dangerous situation in Syria— with multiple conflicts involving the U.S., its allies Turkey and Israel, a loose Russia-Syria-Iran coalition, and local actors such as ISIS and the Syrian Kurdish militia.”
- “Turkey, for understandable reasons, considers the [Syria’s main Kurdish party] PYD – and its YPG militia, aka ‘People’s Protection Units’ – to be an arm of the Turkish Kurdistan Worker’s Party or PKK. The PKK has fought for Kurdish independence inside Turkey since 1984 – and also has had off-and-on close relations with the Assad regime.”
- “Turkey insists Afrin is only the first step to cleansing the entire northern border of PYD/YPG elements, but this is unrealistic. It would mean a huge conflict with millions of Kurds with impact on Turkey’s own Kurds, a possibly violent break with the U.S., and likely opposition from Russia.”