(The Diplomat) As the Trump administration prepares for its mandatory military response to Syria’s latest poison gas attack against Syrian civilians, it is undoubtedly weighing not only its intended targets, but the reactions of the other players in the grisly strategic game.
(War On The Rocks) Large, burly men sat in the front rows of the parliament building in Banja Luka last December, their bulging muscles revealing elaborate tattoos under their black T-shirts and hoodies. These were the “little green men” of the Balkans — only they were not little and wore black outfits instead of green camouflage uniforms. They certainly looked intimidating, sitting in the parliament of the Republika Srpska entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Members of a group called “Serbian Honor” (Српска ЧАСТ), they claim to be involved in “humanitarian” work in Republika Srpska and neighboring Serbia.
According to the Pentagon, targets included:
- a scientific research facility in Damascus that officials said was involved in producing chemical and biological weapons
- a chemical weapons facility near Homs
- a chemical weapons equipment storage facility near Homs
- and a military command post near Homs involved in the most recent attack.
- Robert Richer, former CIA Mideast & South Asia chief: “Syrian opposition leaders via Amman from their sources in the ground say the attacks were very surgical and hit, by their accounts, facilities that had been mostly evacuated. Syrian security forces have cordoned much of the targeted areas but there does not appear to be any reported leaks of chemical products… From the Syrian opposition’s standpoint, as conventional forces do not appear to have been targeted, they not see the attacks as a game changer on the ground.”
- Norman T. Roule, former CIA Mideast division chief and chief of station: “The likely Russian propaganda campaign and attempts to criticize the U.S. in the UN, which will follow these strikes, will further degrade our already poor relations with Moscow, but the Russian counter options are limited. Russia, Syria and Iran are isolated in the diplomatic arena. Moscow shows no desire to risk a military confrontation to protect a dictator, and some in Moscow will be stung by the accurate perception that Russia cannot defend its allies from Western strikes.”
- John Nixon, former CIA senior leadership analyst: “In the short-run, I think the Assad regime will back away from using chemical weapons (CW) to assert control of rebellious areas. Iran and Russia may also see Assad’s use of CW as dangerous and unnecessarily provoking the U.S. into action that could spread quickly into a wider conflict. So long as the U.S. does not seek to alter the status quo in Syria, I do not think that either Moscow or Tehran will look to retaliate against the Western nations…In the long-run, I do not believe that the Assad regime will give up what it sees as its right to reestablish control over the country.”