By Bradley A. Thayer, RealClearDefense: “The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) released last month called for the development of a new low yield warhead and new delivery systems to address shortfalls in existing deterrent capabilities.
By Vaughn Standley, RealClearDefense: “The NPR is predicated on deterrence, which is about “decisively influencing an adversary’s decision calculus to prevent attack or the escalation of a conflict.” What’s missing in the NPR are substantive new information-related approaches to achieving this goal.”
Are ‘Defense Hawks’ and ‘Fiscal Conservatives’ at Odds?
By Jake Grant, RealClearDefense: “On the fifth continuing resolution since the beginning of the fiscal year, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff explained that the “lack of predictability and that lack of stability in the budget has not allowed us to most efficiently plan and use the resources available to us.””
By Zalmay Khalilzad, The National Interest: “The Hallmark of the Donald Trump administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS), which was released in December, is the idea of “principled realism.” This marks a decided shift from the policies of Trump’s two immediate predecessors.”
By Tom Greenwood & Jim Greer, Strategy Bridge: “The 4+1 threats are Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, plus the threat of violent extremist organizations and their innovative, information-led strategies that include “little green men,” “grey zone confrontations,” and even threats of nuclear attack on the U.S. homeland. The nature of these threats is such that the joint force is re-focusing its thinking on how best to fight high-end competitors employing complex or hybrid mixes of capabilities and strategies.”
Strategic Counterterrorism Failure?
By Alex Gallo, Modern War Institute: “A military-centric, largely standoff approach has seemed to dominate the United States’ counterterrorism policy overseas since 1998. Yet, during this same time period, jihadist groups such as al-Qaeda have evolved and new jihadist groups such as ISIS have come onto the scene and expanded geographically.”
By Mike Scrafton, The Strategist (ASPI): “China is a large, established, internationally recognised state and a permanent member of the Security Council. It’s a revisionist power. The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the New Development Bank and the BRI shows that China is trying to reshape some international institutions and trade patterns.”
The New U.S. Nuclear Posture Review: Return to Realism
By Hans Rühle, National Institute for Public Policy: “That the new NPR would draw criticism was to be expected. For anti-nuclear activists and arms control enthusiasts, the 2018 NPR does indeed provide little comfort.”
Pincus highlights some portions of the document that stand out:
- "[The NPR] says the U.S. needs to add new low-yield nuclear warheads to its already ample nuclear stockpile...In various NATO countries, the United States has stationed 200-plus B-61 tactical nuclear bombs, current and older versions of which have dial-a-yield settings that allow various explosive yields...The NPR makes no mention of the low-yield capability of the B-61."
- "The Trump NPR also calls for exploring reversal of an Obama administration decision in its 2010 NPR that retired the Navy’s sub-launched nuclear cruise missile (SLCM), calling it redundant...[the authors] see the NPR revival of the Navy sub-launched nuclear cruise missile as a bargaining chip to get the Russians to return to compliance with the INF Treaty, which they have violated by employing a ground-based cruise missile in Europe."
By John R. Harvey, Franklin C. Miller, Keith B. Payne & Bradley H. Roberts, RealClearDefense: “This month, the Trump administration all but pledged itself to an open-ended nation-building operation in U.S.-occupied, northeast Syria. Given America’s uninspiring recent track record, this should concern us all.”
The U.S. Nuclear Posture Review: All Quiet on the Eastern Front
By Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): “The US commits itself to doing four things ‘to maintain credible extended deterrence and thus effective assurance in this complex environment.’”
America’s Two Doctrines
By Sam Roggeveen, the interpreter: “China’s rise presents a type of challenge America has never faced before in the Asia Pacific: in economic terms it is much more substantial than the Soviet Union (always more of a European power), and on present trends China’s military capabilities in the region will match those of the U.S. in a decade or two.”
2018-national-defense-strategy-summary.pdf |
Pentagon chief Jim Mattis defended the administration’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) as the right response to Russia’s rising nuclear capacity and its failure to abide by international treaties, in comments to the House Armed Services Committee Tuesday.
- On responding to Russia’s buildup of low-yield nuclear weapons:“We don’t want someone else to miscalculate and think that because they are going to use a low-yield weapon, somehow we would confront what [former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger] calls ‘surrender or suicide.’”
- On re-introducing a sea-launched, nuclear-capable cruise missile:“The idea is…to keep our negotiators negotiating from a position of strength…I don’t think the Russians would be willing to give up something to gain nothing from us.”
- “The United States remains committed to its global leadership role to reduce the number of nuclear weapons…We must recognize that deterrence and arms control can only be achieved with a credible capability.”
By Bradley A. Thayer, RealClearDefense: “The NPR is an important step forward for aiding the U.S. position in the world in the face of historical challenges from its great power rivals.”
By Dave Adams, RealClearDefense: “At first glance, the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) appears to right the nation’s strategic ship by committing to modernizing our nuclear arsenal and by rightly positioning nuclear strategy at the center of the nation’s effort to deter a great power war. ”
By Franklin C. Miller, RealClearDefense: “Informed public debate is vital to any functioning democracy. But for that debate to be informed, Americans need to read and understand the proposal and judge based on its merits.”
Department of Energy Risking Nuclear Deterrence and National Security
By Franklin C. Miller, RealClearDefense: “According to the recent 2018 Nuclear Posture review, a smoothly functioning nuclear weapons industrial base is essential to a credible strategic deterrent.”
Daniel Cebul writes: The announcement of two new low-yield nuclear weapons programs in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review has led to a discussion about the utility of so-called nonstrategic, or tactical, nuclear weapons. - Defense News